转型经济可持续发展论
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摘要
改革开放30年高速增长的中国经济创造了世界经济增长的“奇迹”,然而高速增长的背后却是能否可持续的隐忧。如何在“问题意识”的促动中重构全面协调和可持续价值取向的经济发展理论,是经济社会快速转型时期发展中国经济学不可回避的重大理论和现实问题。本论文抓住转型经济的可持续性这个主题,构建可持续的内生经济增长模型,并以中国1978-2006为样本,综合运用多种数理分析与实证检验方法,从收敛陷阱、可持续增长空间(技术空间、要素空间和区域空间)和基于协调发展的经济权利禀赋等层面,对转型经济可持续发展问题进行了定性与定量相结合的系统研究。
首先,本文构建的可持续的技术内生经济增长模型,从内生技术进步视角刻画了技术进步在转型经济实现可持续发展的各个阶段的内在作用机制,揭示了转型经济“发展初期阶段技术模仿促进经济增长,随着这种增长速度的趋同,又如何减缓经济体增长速度”的转型经济技术进步作用规律。
其次,从技术空间、要素空间和区域空间等层面对转型以来中国经济增长的可持续性进行了实证研究,揭示了中国转型经济可持续发展的结构。技术可持续空间的分析采用基于面板数据的DEA全要素生产率Malmquist测算、GM(1,1)灰色预测等方法;要素空间的可持续性分析采用了蒙特卡洛马科维夫(MCMC)动态模拟方法和TVP状态变参数测算方法;基于经济腹地延伸的可持续发展空间的分析主要通过对劳动力、资本两个因素在东部、中部、西部和东北地区四大经济板块之间的差异测算进行实证分析。实证分析表明:
第一,我国转型期全要素生产率的提高主要来自要素优化配置所致的效率改善。“进口开放式”的技术模仿路径引致的技术进步作用在整体上已趋缓。“迅速下行”的资本要素产出弹性与“平稳翘起”的R&D投入产出弹性在2001年左右相交。根据可持续的内生经济增长模型可以判定,我国转型经济整体上已经越过了技术模仿战略主导与技术创新战略主导转换临界点。如果没有对技术创新战略路径的及时调整,既有的技术进步模式难以维系经济持续增长所需的技术跨越,同样不可避免其他转型经济国家曾经滑入的发展陷阱。
第二,各省“分异”的技术进步和效率改善现状不仅为我国整体经济的持续转型提供了调控空间,而且也为各地经济增长方式转变提出了不一样的技术进步内涵和效率改进的制度要求。省区技术进步、效率改善与经济增长趋同不完全一致为我国分层次、有区别的推进各地技术进步提供了基于“全面、协调与可持续”发展的技术政策制定依据。
第三,以1999年左右为界,资本要素曾经对经济增长的突出推动作用已经迅速并持续弱化,转型经济体已经显示出依靠其它要素推动经济持续增长的迫切要求。经济转型过程中劳动力对经济增长的贡献作用不明显。第一产业、第三产业从业人员对我国经济增长的贡献不显著,我国经济可持续增长的要素空间,在整体上要充分关注劳动力要素可持续性的发挥,特别是要充分发挥第三产业在推动经济持续转型中的重要作用。
第四,经济权利禀赋与欠发达地区经济增长关系的理论和实证分析表明,欠发达地区经济增长相对缓慢的原因在于其经济权利禀赋的数量和结构难以满足经济实力提升要求,由此导致了地区自生能力低的现象;地区经济发展政策对欠发达地区经济增长的正面效应已凸显,而且主要是通过提升欠发达地区的物质资本权利作用于经济增长。
总之,具有明显渐进转型特征的中国经济,前期的高速增长与事实上实施的技术模仿主导型战略密切相关,也是本论文模型揭示的转型经济内生技术规律支配的必然结果。为实现中国经济的成功转型和全面协调可持续发展,应适时实施技术模仿向创新主导战略转型和主导要素调整提升、经济腹地空间拓展和欠发达地区经济区位凸显四大战略。以有效规避世界上部分发达国家曾经经历过的发展陷阱。
综上,本论文创新性的转型经济内生技术进步刻画,在转型经济领域具体化了Barro & Salai-Martin的“赶超理论”和Brezis,Krugman & tsinddon的“蛙跳模型”,丰富了技术与经济增长关系理论;从技术转型空间、主导要素空间、区域腹地空间和地区结构空间对中国转型经济可持续增长的结构(度)的实证分析以及由此形成的转型经济可持续发展分析框架,拓展了可持续发展的研究范畴;而经济权利禀赋与欠发达地区经济增长关系的作用机制分析与实证检验,丰富了欠发达地区和基于“全面、协调与可持续发展”价值取向的区域经济发展理论。
The rapid development of China's economy for more than 30 years since the reform and opening-up created a miracle for the economy growth worldwide. However, a hidden question rose: whether the rapid growth of China’s economy is or will be sustainable. How to rebuild an economy development theory based on the orientation to the so-called comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable value is an important theoretical and practicable question during the rapid economy and social transition in China. This article built a sustainable model of endogenous growth by focusing on the sustainability of the transition economics. This thesis used various mathematical analysis and empirical test comprehensively. It took the economy data from 1978 to 2006 of China as samples and studied the sustainability of the transition economy qualitatively and quantitatively. The whole research based on the analyze convergence trap, sustainable space (including technology, elements and region space) and economy rights endowment.
First, the thesis built a sustainable endogenous technology-economic growth model to characterize the intrinsic performance mechanism of technology progress for realizing sustainability of the transition economics. It revealed a performance rule of transition economy progress the technology imitation could promote the economic growth in backward countries at first, but it would slow down their economy development when the growth rates of backward countries came to close to that of developed ones.
Second, an empirical study carried out by analyzing the sustainability of the economy growth in China since the transition from the technology, elements and region space, revealing the structure of the transition economy in China. The technology sustainability of technology space was analyzed by using all-factor productivity calculation Malmquist and Gray Model (1, 1) forecasting. The sustainability of element space employed the dynamic simulation method of MCMC and the TVP state variable parameter measurement. The region sustainability was researched empirically by analyzing the impress difference of both labor power and regional capital of the east, middle, west and northeast of China, respectively. This study pointed out that:
1. The improvement of the all-factor productivity came mainly from the efficiency improvement because of their optimized allocation during the economy transition in China. The technology growth due to the import-open imitation had slowed down. The rapid decreasing elasticity of capital element productivity and the stable increasing elasticity of R&D input-output crossed with each other in year 2002. It can be assumed from the endogenous economy growth model that, the transition economy in China had passed over the critical state from the technological imitation to creation. If there were no such an adjustment to creation technology, the already development pattern couldn’t support the technology improvement required by the economy development. Therefore, the economy growth in China would fall in the development trap unavoidably which was experienced by other countries as well.
2. The different speed of technology and efficiency improvement provided not only space for the sustainable economy transition in China, but also put forwards requirement to different regions. The diversity of technology growth, efficiency improvement and economy development in different regions in China provided a basement for the regulation about how to develop technology roundly coordinately and sustainably.
3. The extraordinary promotion effect that capital element used to do to the economy growth has decayed quickly and continuously. The transition economy in China needed the help of other elements to keep its sustainability. During the economy transition in China, the contribution of labor power was tested to be not notable. The first and third industry didn’t contribute notably to the economy growth as well. The element space for the sustainable development in China should focus the sustainability of the labor element, especially the function of the third industry.
4. The thesis carried out a theoretical and empirical analyze about the relationship between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area. The result showed that, the reason to the slow developing in underdeveloped area was the number of economy right endowment had difficulty to improve the local economics, resulting a low regional self-engendered ability. The regional development policy had showed a positive effect on the economy growth in developed area by promoting the employment of material capital in underdeveloped area.
To sum up, the economy growth in China is a typical transition economy. Its prophase rapid growth has a close correlation to the present technology imitation strategy in China. This is also the unavoidable consequence due to the transition economy endogenuous regulation proved by this article. For the comprehensive unisonous sustainable development and economy transition in China, four strategies must carry out. They are the transition strategy (from imitation to creation), the dominant elements improvement strategy, hinterland space exploitation strategy and highlight economy of the underdevelopment area strategy.
In total, this thesis built a novel transition endogenous economy model. It furthered the overtaking theory of Barro & Salai-Martin and the Frog-leap model of Brezis,Krugman & tsinddon and enriched the relationship between the technology and the economy growth. The sustainability of the economy growth in China was studied theoretically and empirically from the technology transition space, dominant element space, regional hinterland space and regional structural space. The framework for the analyze of transition economy sustainability presented in this thesis exploited the category of sustainability research. And the study between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area enriched the regional economy development theory oriented by the comprehensive, coordinate and sustainable development value.
首先,本文构建的可持续的技术内生经济增长模型,从内生技术进步视角刻画了技术进步在转型经济实现可持续发展的各个阶段的内在作用机制,揭示了转型经济“发展初期阶段技术模仿促进经济增长,随着这种增长速度的趋同,又如何减缓经济体增长速度”的转型经济技术进步作用规律。
其次,从技术空间、要素空间和区域空间等层面对转型以来中国经济增长的可持续性进行了实证研究,揭示了中国转型经济可持续发展的结构。技术可持续空间的分析采用基于面板数据的DEA全要素生产率Malmquist测算、GM(1,1)灰色预测等方法;要素空间的可持续性分析采用了蒙特卡洛马科维夫(MCMC)动态模拟方法和TVP状态变参数测算方法;基于经济腹地延伸的可持续发展空间的分析主要通过对劳动力、资本两个因素在东部、中部、西部和东北地区四大经济板块之间的差异测算进行实证分析。实证分析表明:
第一,我国转型期全要素生产率的提高主要来自要素优化配置所致的效率改善。“进口开放式”的技术模仿路径引致的技术进步作用在整体上已趋缓。“迅速下行”的资本要素产出弹性与“平稳翘起”的R&D投入产出弹性在2001年左右相交。根据可持续的内生经济增长模型可以判定,我国转型经济整体上已经越过了技术模仿战略主导与技术创新战略主导转换临界点。如果没有对技术创新战略路径的及时调整,既有的技术进步模式难以维系经济持续增长所需的技术跨越,同样不可避免其他转型经济国家曾经滑入的发展陷阱。
第二,各省“分异”的技术进步和效率改善现状不仅为我国整体经济的持续转型提供了调控空间,而且也为各地经济增长方式转变提出了不一样的技术进步内涵和效率改进的制度要求。省区技术进步、效率改善与经济增长趋同不完全一致为我国分层次、有区别的推进各地技术进步提供了基于“全面、协调与可持续”发展的技术政策制定依据。
第三,以1999年左右为界,资本要素曾经对经济增长的突出推动作用已经迅速并持续弱化,转型经济体已经显示出依靠其它要素推动经济持续增长的迫切要求。经济转型过程中劳动力对经济增长的贡献作用不明显。第一产业、第三产业从业人员对我国经济增长的贡献不显著,我国经济可持续增长的要素空间,在整体上要充分关注劳动力要素可持续性的发挥,特别是要充分发挥第三产业在推动经济持续转型中的重要作用。
第四,经济权利禀赋与欠发达地区经济增长关系的理论和实证分析表明,欠发达地区经济增长相对缓慢的原因在于其经济权利禀赋的数量和结构难以满足经济实力提升要求,由此导致了地区自生能力低的现象;地区经济发展政策对欠发达地区经济增长的正面效应已凸显,而且主要是通过提升欠发达地区的物质资本权利作用于经济增长。
总之,具有明显渐进转型特征的中国经济,前期的高速增长与事实上实施的技术模仿主导型战略密切相关,也是本论文模型揭示的转型经济内生技术规律支配的必然结果。为实现中国经济的成功转型和全面协调可持续发展,应适时实施技术模仿向创新主导战略转型和主导要素调整提升、经济腹地空间拓展和欠发达地区经济区位凸显四大战略。以有效规避世界上部分发达国家曾经经历过的发展陷阱。
综上,本论文创新性的转型经济内生技术进步刻画,在转型经济领域具体化了Barro & Salai-Martin的“赶超理论”和Brezis,Krugman & tsinddon的“蛙跳模型”,丰富了技术与经济增长关系理论;从技术转型空间、主导要素空间、区域腹地空间和地区结构空间对中国转型经济可持续增长的结构(度)的实证分析以及由此形成的转型经济可持续发展分析框架,拓展了可持续发展的研究范畴;而经济权利禀赋与欠发达地区经济增长关系的作用机制分析与实证检验,丰富了欠发达地区和基于“全面、协调与可持续发展”价值取向的区域经济发展理论。
The rapid development of China's economy for more than 30 years since the reform and opening-up created a miracle for the economy growth worldwide. However, a hidden question rose: whether the rapid growth of China’s economy is or will be sustainable. How to rebuild an economy development theory based on the orientation to the so-called comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable value is an important theoretical and practicable question during the rapid economy and social transition in China. This article built a sustainable model of endogenous growth by focusing on the sustainability of the transition economics. This thesis used various mathematical analysis and empirical test comprehensively. It took the economy data from 1978 to 2006 of China as samples and studied the sustainability of the transition economy qualitatively and quantitatively. The whole research based on the analyze convergence trap, sustainable space (including technology, elements and region space) and economy rights endowment.
First, the thesis built a sustainable endogenous technology-economic growth model to characterize the intrinsic performance mechanism of technology progress for realizing sustainability of the transition economics. It revealed a performance rule of transition economy progress the technology imitation could promote the economic growth in backward countries at first, but it would slow down their economy development when the growth rates of backward countries came to close to that of developed ones.
Second, an empirical study carried out by analyzing the sustainability of the economy growth in China since the transition from the technology, elements and region space, revealing the structure of the transition economy in China. The technology sustainability of technology space was analyzed by using all-factor productivity calculation Malmquist and Gray Model (1, 1) forecasting. The sustainability of element space employed the dynamic simulation method of MCMC and the TVP state variable parameter measurement. The region sustainability was researched empirically by analyzing the impress difference of both labor power and regional capital of the east, middle, west and northeast of China, respectively. This study pointed out that:
1. The improvement of the all-factor productivity came mainly from the efficiency improvement because of their optimized allocation during the economy transition in China. The technology growth due to the import-open imitation had slowed down. The rapid decreasing elasticity of capital element productivity and the stable increasing elasticity of R&D input-output crossed with each other in year 2002. It can be assumed from the endogenous economy growth model that, the transition economy in China had passed over the critical state from the technological imitation to creation. If there were no such an adjustment to creation technology, the already development pattern couldn’t support the technology improvement required by the economy development. Therefore, the economy growth in China would fall in the development trap unavoidably which was experienced by other countries as well.
2. The different speed of technology and efficiency improvement provided not only space for the sustainable economy transition in China, but also put forwards requirement to different regions. The diversity of technology growth, efficiency improvement and economy development in different regions in China provided a basement for the regulation about how to develop technology roundly coordinately and sustainably.
3. The extraordinary promotion effect that capital element used to do to the economy growth has decayed quickly and continuously. The transition economy in China needed the help of other elements to keep its sustainability. During the economy transition in China, the contribution of labor power was tested to be not notable. The first and third industry didn’t contribute notably to the economy growth as well. The element space for the sustainable development in China should focus the sustainability of the labor element, especially the function of the third industry.
4. The thesis carried out a theoretical and empirical analyze about the relationship between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area. The result showed that, the reason to the slow developing in underdeveloped area was the number of economy right endowment had difficulty to improve the local economics, resulting a low regional self-engendered ability. The regional development policy had showed a positive effect on the economy growth in developed area by promoting the employment of material capital in underdeveloped area.
To sum up, the economy growth in China is a typical transition economy. Its prophase rapid growth has a close correlation to the present technology imitation strategy in China. This is also the unavoidable consequence due to the transition economy endogenuous regulation proved by this article. For the comprehensive unisonous sustainable development and economy transition in China, four strategies must carry out. They are the transition strategy (from imitation to creation), the dominant elements improvement strategy, hinterland space exploitation strategy and highlight economy of the underdevelopment area strategy.
In total, this thesis built a novel transition endogenous economy model. It furthered the overtaking theory of Barro & Salai-Martin and the Frog-leap model of Brezis,Krugman & tsinddon and enriched the relationship between the technology and the economy growth. The sustainability of the economy growth in China was studied theoretically and empirically from the technology transition space, dominant element space, regional hinterland space and regional structural space. The framework for the analyze of transition economy sustainability presented in this thesis exploited the category of sustainability research. And the study between the economy right endowment and the economy growth in underdeveloped area enriched the regional economy development theory oriented by the comprehensive, coordinate and sustainable development value.
引文
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