城市商品住宅价格空间分异研究
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摘要
我国城镇住房制度改革的实质是把住房建设和管理从政府主导转变为市场主导,但是我国的住宅市场还很不成熟,还存在着诸多问题,这些问题通过商品住宅价格被综合反映出来。1998年以来,许多城市的商品住宅价格持续上涨,房价居高不下,商品住宅价格成为政府、开发商和居民个人关注的焦点。由于商品住宅价格在空间分布和时间序列上具有很强的差异性,剖析上述现象是否合理,揭示这种现象中的合理与不合理成分,必须研究城市商品住宅价格空间分布特性,并考虑其历史的演变过程。因此,开展城市商品住宅价格时空演变规律研究具有重要的理论和现实意义。
本研究以国家优秀旅游城市-开封市城区商品住宅价格为例,采用大量的新建商品房交易资料,在地理信息系统(GlS)的支持下,利用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、数据可视化(Data Visualization)、特征价格模型(Hedonic)、空间自回归(Spatial Autoregressive)、地理加权回归(GWR)和地统计学(Geostatistics)等方法和技术,从全局和局域的角度,探讨城市商品住宅价格的时间演变和空间分布特性,并注重空间与时间两个层面的结合,探索城市商品住宅价格的时空演变规律；在此基础上,进一步分析城市居住空间结构的演变规律,深刻剖析现象背后的原因和动力机制,提出一些有效的调控策略,最后,开展了商品住宅价格与住宅地价的空间关系的应用研究,从空间的视角,揭示了房价与地价的相互关系。
本研究在以下几个方面取得了初步研究成果：
(1)通过对国内外大量相关文献的查阅和总结,系统全面地阐述了商品住宅价格形成和空间分异的基本理论、空间分析方法和GIS相关软件实现技术,为进行实证研究提供了理论依据和技术支撑。
(2)通过对研究案例200]-2009年时段内的34992个有效的商品住宅样点的统计分析、数据修正和标准化处理,系统地实证了利用新建商品房买卖样点资料作为研究数据的可靠性；在此基础上,按建筑面积加权求算出306个住宅小区的均价,作为基本的研究对象。
(3)获取商品住宅交易样点的空间信息是进行空间分析的前提,本研究系统建立了空间特征因素因子选择、获取和量化的指标体系。采用地理编码技术,建立了商品住宅样点和住宅小区的时空数据库。
(4)利用GIS的空间分析和探索性空间数据分析技术,系统全面地分析了商品住宅价格的整体性空间特征,从全局和局域两个层次的指标分析了商品住宅价格的空间异质性和依赖性。
(5)利用Hedonic模型对开封市商品住宅价格进行了住宅特征价格分析,在特征模型中除了考虑建筑特征外,还同时引入了空间特性变量(区位和邻里特征)和时间因素变量。实证表明,模型总体具有有效性,住宅的建筑特征具有显著的同质性,利用Hedonic模型的实证结果可以建立住宅价格的建筑特征修正体系。
(6)利用SAR、GWR和地统计学的空间建模功能,成功地揭示了商品住宅价格时空演变规律。提出可综合利用这些模型分别建立不同时段的商品住宅价格空间分布经济地形,再对其进行叠加分析,可以探索商品住宅价格的时空演变规律。实证研究2001年到2009年开封城区商品住宅价格的时空演变规律,并提出将时间变量引入GWR建立TGWR模型的新思路。
(7)实证研究表明,开封市商品住宅价格呈现明显的空间分异规律和时间演变特征：2001-2004年中心城区(旧城区)商品住宅价格总体上以鼓楼广场和龙亭湖为中心向周边呈梯度下降趋势,在城西的金明广场出现了次中心的萌芽；到2009年,尽管商品住宅价格以龙亭湖为中心向周边呈梯度下降趋势的总体格局没有变化,但是中心的强度降为次级中心,在城市西部形成了商品住宅价格的峰值中心。同时,研究还表明距离商服中心距离、公共设施等影响住宅价格的基础性因素的影响程度在逐渐降低,有些还呈现明显的空间负相关。而新区建设、城市规划、城际交通等影响因素对住宅价格的影响很大。从商品住宅价格的绝对变化量来看,旧城区的住宅价格变化较小,而新城区变化很大；从相对变化量来看,总体上城郊商品住宅价格的上涨幅度高于中心城区,但又有明显的区域差异性,城市西部和北部的住宅价格的梯度高于东部和南部的住宅价格的梯度。
(8)在对商品住宅价格空间分异和时间演变分析的基础上,对城市居住空间结构的演变特征进行了探索,并从国家制度、政策、城市规划、居民收入、居民择居行为和新技术变革等方面,剖析了其形成原因和动力机制,研究发现国家制度、政策是基本的推动因素,城市规划起主导推动作用,城市居民收入差异推动了居住空间的进一步分化,居民择居行为是居住空间分异的直接推动力,新技术变革不断改变着住宅的空间分布。
(9)开展了商品住宅价格与住宅地价的空间关系的研究。提出可综合利用GIS空间叠加分析技术,建立同一时期的商品住宅价格和住宅地价的空间分布叠加经济地形,可以探索房价和地价差异的空间分异规律,为政府引导商品住宅价格提供决策依据,为居民购房时判断房价是否超高提供参考。
The our country town housing system reform of joining the government the mansion predominance's change to the housing construction and the management into a market and predominating is substantial, but our country of the residence market is still not very mature and also exist many problems, these problems pass merchandise residence price drive comprehensive the reflection come out.Since 1998, the merchandise residence of many cities price continuously soars, the residence price is high, and the merchandise residence price becomes a government and develops the focus of company and residents' personal concern.Because the merchandise residence price distributes in the space and time sequence up have very strong difference, analyze whether above-mentioned phenomenon reasonable, announce to public this kind of reasonable and not reasonable composition in the phenomenon, have to study merchandise residence price space in city to distribute characteristic, and consider turning into of its history process.Therefore, develop a merchandise residence price timespace in city to turn into a regulation research to have important theories and realistic meaning.
This research with merchandise residence price of Kaifeng City for example, the adoption is a great deal of of lately set up the merchandise building bargain data, under support of GIS, make use of ESDA, Data Visualization, Hedonic model, GWR,Geostatistics etc. method and technique, the angle from the overall and part situation, study merchandise residence price in city of time turn into to distribute characteristic with space, and pay attention to combining of space and time two levelses, investigate merchandise residence price in city of the timespace turn into regulation;On this foundation, analyze a city to live turning into of space structure regulation further, profoundly analyze the reason and motive mechanism of phenomenon back, put forward some effectively adjust to control strategy, end, developed the application study that the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price relates to, from the angle of view of space, announced to public the correlation between residence price and land price.
This research obtained an initial research result in a few following aspects:
(1)Pass to at home and abroad checking of a great deal of collection and summary, the system completely elaborated that the merchandise residence price formation and space are different for cent of the basic theories, space analysis method and GIS related software carry out a technique, for carried on a substantial evidence research to provide theories basis and technique to prop up.
(2)Pass for 2001-2009 years to the research case,34992 effective merchandise residence kinds in the time order of statistics analysis, data correction and standardize a processing, systematically substantial evidence the exploitation lately set up the merchandise building business kind to order data as the credibility of the research data:On this foundation, press a building the area add power to beg 306 residences small area on the whole of all the price is a basic research object.
(3)Obtain merchandise residence to trade the kind orders of space information is carry on space analysis of premise, this research system built up the space characteristic factor factor choice, obtain turn with quantity of index sign system.Adopt geography coding technique, built up merchandise residence the kind order and the timespace database of the residence small area.
(4)Make use of a GIS spatial analysis and ESDA, the system completely analyzed whole sex space characteristic of merchandise residence price, area two index signs of layers analyzed the space differences and dependence of merchandise residence price from the overall situation tie.
(5)Make use of Hedonic, the model folio sealed the city merchandise residence price to carry on a residence characteristic price analysis, in the characteristic model the consideration constructs a characteristic, besides which, also led to go into in the meantime the space characteristic changes to measure and the time's factor change to measure.Substantial evidence expresses that the model is total to have usefulness, the building characteristic of residence has to show together quality, making use of Hedonic substantial evidence result of the model can build up the building characteristic of residence price correction system.
(6)Make use of SAR, GWR and ground the statistics learns of space model function, successfully announced to public the merchandise residence price timespace to turn into regulation.Put forward can synthesize to make use of these models to build up different time respectively of the merchandise residence price space distribute economic geography, as to it's carry on again to fold to add analysis, can investigate the timespace of merchandise residence price to turn into regulation.The substantial evidence studies for 2001-2009 years, the timespace of Kaifeng city area merchandise residence price turns into regulation, and put forward to change time to quantity to lead into GWR establishment TGWR the new way of thinking of the model.
(7)The substantial evidence research expresses that merchandise residence price in Kaifeng City presents obvious space to divide different regulation and time to turn into a characteristic:2001-2004 the middle of the year the heart city area(old city area) merchandise residence the price is total top with drum building square and Long Ting Hu for the center present a gradient to descend trend to the periphery and appeared time center at city the gold clear square of the west of embryonic;Till 2009, though the merchandise residence price takes Long Ting Hu as center toward the periphery presents the total structure and form that the gradient descends trend don't change, but the strength of the center declines for the second-class center and formed the Feng value of merchandise residence price in the west of city center.In the meantime, the research still expresses be apart from company's taking the influence degree of foundation factor of center distance, public facilities etc. influence residence price is lowering gradually, some still present obvious space negative related.But new area construction, city planning and city border transportation etc. influence of impact factor upon the residence price is very big.Go into business the absolute variety of article residence price quantity to see, the residence price of old city area changes smaller, but area of new city change very greatly;Seeing from opposite variety quantity, the soaring of total top city suburb merchandise residence price range is again higher than city area in the center, but have a high the gradient of the residence price of obvious difference in the district, the west of city and the north at the gradient of the residence price of the east and the south.
(8)At to the merchandise residence price space the cent difference and time turn into analytical foundation up, live space structure to the city of turned into a characteristic to carry on quest, and from the national system, policy and city planning, residents' income and residents choose to reside behavior and new technique change etc., analyzed its formation reason and motive mechanism, the research detection national system and policy is basic push factor, the city planning has a predominance push function, the residents income difference in city pushed to live space of divide further, the residents choose to reside behavior is live space different for cent of direct motivation, the new technique change continuously changes residential of the space distribute.
(9)Develop the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price relates to of research.Putting forward can synthesize to make use of GIS, the space folds to add an analytical technique and builds up the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price of the same period to distribute to fold to add economic geography, can investigate the space of building price and land price difference to divide different regulation and guides merchandise residence for government, the price provides a decision basis and buy building for the residents judge whether building price is extremely high provide a reference.
本研究以国家优秀旅游城市-开封市城区商品住宅价格为例,采用大量的新建商品房交易资料,在地理信息系统(GlS)的支持下,利用探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)、数据可视化(Data Visualization)、特征价格模型(Hedonic)、空间自回归(Spatial Autoregressive)、地理加权回归(GWR)和地统计学(Geostatistics)等方法和技术,从全局和局域的角度,探讨城市商品住宅价格的时间演变和空间分布特性,并注重空间与时间两个层面的结合,探索城市商品住宅价格的时空演变规律；在此基础上,进一步分析城市居住空间结构的演变规律,深刻剖析现象背后的原因和动力机制,提出一些有效的调控策略,最后,开展了商品住宅价格与住宅地价的空间关系的应用研究,从空间的视角,揭示了房价与地价的相互关系。
本研究在以下几个方面取得了初步研究成果：
(1)通过对国内外大量相关文献的查阅和总结,系统全面地阐述了商品住宅价格形成和空间分异的基本理论、空间分析方法和GIS相关软件实现技术,为进行实证研究提供了理论依据和技术支撑。
(2)通过对研究案例200]-2009年时段内的34992个有效的商品住宅样点的统计分析、数据修正和标准化处理,系统地实证了利用新建商品房买卖样点资料作为研究数据的可靠性；在此基础上,按建筑面积加权求算出306个住宅小区的均价,作为基本的研究对象。
(3)获取商品住宅交易样点的空间信息是进行空间分析的前提,本研究系统建立了空间特征因素因子选择、获取和量化的指标体系。采用地理编码技术,建立了商品住宅样点和住宅小区的时空数据库。
(4)利用GIS的空间分析和探索性空间数据分析技术,系统全面地分析了商品住宅价格的整体性空间特征,从全局和局域两个层次的指标分析了商品住宅价格的空间异质性和依赖性。
(5)利用Hedonic模型对开封市商品住宅价格进行了住宅特征价格分析,在特征模型中除了考虑建筑特征外,还同时引入了空间特性变量(区位和邻里特征)和时间因素变量。实证表明,模型总体具有有效性,住宅的建筑特征具有显著的同质性,利用Hedonic模型的实证结果可以建立住宅价格的建筑特征修正体系。
(6)利用SAR、GWR和地统计学的空间建模功能,成功地揭示了商品住宅价格时空演变规律。提出可综合利用这些模型分别建立不同时段的商品住宅价格空间分布经济地形,再对其进行叠加分析,可以探索商品住宅价格的时空演变规律。实证研究2001年到2009年开封城区商品住宅价格的时空演变规律,并提出将时间变量引入GWR建立TGWR模型的新思路。
(7)实证研究表明,开封市商品住宅价格呈现明显的空间分异规律和时间演变特征：2001-2004年中心城区(旧城区)商品住宅价格总体上以鼓楼广场和龙亭湖为中心向周边呈梯度下降趋势,在城西的金明广场出现了次中心的萌芽；到2009年,尽管商品住宅价格以龙亭湖为中心向周边呈梯度下降趋势的总体格局没有变化,但是中心的强度降为次级中心,在城市西部形成了商品住宅价格的峰值中心。同时,研究还表明距离商服中心距离、公共设施等影响住宅价格的基础性因素的影响程度在逐渐降低,有些还呈现明显的空间负相关。而新区建设、城市规划、城际交通等影响因素对住宅价格的影响很大。从商品住宅价格的绝对变化量来看,旧城区的住宅价格变化较小,而新城区变化很大；从相对变化量来看,总体上城郊商品住宅价格的上涨幅度高于中心城区,但又有明显的区域差异性,城市西部和北部的住宅价格的梯度高于东部和南部的住宅价格的梯度。
(8)在对商品住宅价格空间分异和时间演变分析的基础上,对城市居住空间结构的演变特征进行了探索,并从国家制度、政策、城市规划、居民收入、居民择居行为和新技术变革等方面,剖析了其形成原因和动力机制,研究发现国家制度、政策是基本的推动因素,城市规划起主导推动作用,城市居民收入差异推动了居住空间的进一步分化,居民择居行为是居住空间分异的直接推动力,新技术变革不断改变着住宅的空间分布。
(9)开展了商品住宅价格与住宅地价的空间关系的研究。提出可综合利用GIS空间叠加分析技术,建立同一时期的商品住宅价格和住宅地价的空间分布叠加经济地形,可以探索房价和地价差异的空间分异规律,为政府引导商品住宅价格提供决策依据,为居民购房时判断房价是否超高提供参考。
The our country town housing system reform of joining the government the mansion predominance's change to the housing construction and the management into a market and predominating is substantial, but our country of the residence market is still not very mature and also exist many problems, these problems pass merchandise residence price drive comprehensive the reflection come out.Since 1998, the merchandise residence of many cities price continuously soars, the residence price is high, and the merchandise residence price becomes a government and develops the focus of company and residents' personal concern.Because the merchandise residence price distributes in the space and time sequence up have very strong difference, analyze whether above-mentioned phenomenon reasonable, announce to public this kind of reasonable and not reasonable composition in the phenomenon, have to study merchandise residence price space in city to distribute characteristic, and consider turning into of its history process.Therefore, develop a merchandise residence price timespace in city to turn into a regulation research to have important theories and realistic meaning.
This research with merchandise residence price of Kaifeng City for example, the adoption is a great deal of of lately set up the merchandise building bargain data, under support of GIS, make use of ESDA, Data Visualization, Hedonic model, GWR,Geostatistics etc. method and technique, the angle from the overall and part situation, study merchandise residence price in city of time turn into to distribute characteristic with space, and pay attention to combining of space and time two levelses, investigate merchandise residence price in city of the timespace turn into regulation;On this foundation, analyze a city to live turning into of space structure regulation further, profoundly analyze the reason and motive mechanism of phenomenon back, put forward some effectively adjust to control strategy, end, developed the application study that the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price relates to, from the angle of view of space, announced to public the correlation between residence price and land price.
This research obtained an initial research result in a few following aspects:
(1)Pass to at home and abroad checking of a great deal of collection and summary, the system completely elaborated that the merchandise residence price formation and space are different for cent of the basic theories, space analysis method and GIS related software carry out a technique, for carried on a substantial evidence research to provide theories basis and technique to prop up.
(2)Pass for 2001-2009 years to the research case,34992 effective merchandise residence kinds in the time order of statistics analysis, data correction and standardize a processing, systematically substantial evidence the exploitation lately set up the merchandise building business kind to order data as the credibility of the research data:On this foundation, press a building the area add power to beg 306 residences small area on the whole of all the price is a basic research object.
(3)Obtain merchandise residence to trade the kind orders of space information is carry on space analysis of premise, this research system built up the space characteristic factor factor choice, obtain turn with quantity of index sign system.Adopt geography coding technique, built up merchandise residence the kind order and the timespace database of the residence small area.
(4)Make use of a GIS spatial analysis and ESDA, the system completely analyzed whole sex space characteristic of merchandise residence price, area two index signs of layers analyzed the space differences and dependence of merchandise residence price from the overall situation tie.
(5)Make use of Hedonic, the model folio sealed the city merchandise residence price to carry on a residence characteristic price analysis, in the characteristic model the consideration constructs a characteristic, besides which, also led to go into in the meantime the space characteristic changes to measure and the time's factor change to measure.Substantial evidence expresses that the model is total to have usefulness, the building characteristic of residence has to show together quality, making use of Hedonic substantial evidence result of the model can build up the building characteristic of residence price correction system.
(6)Make use of SAR, GWR and ground the statistics learns of space model function, successfully announced to public the merchandise residence price timespace to turn into regulation.Put forward can synthesize to make use of these models to build up different time respectively of the merchandise residence price space distribute economic geography, as to it's carry on again to fold to add analysis, can investigate the timespace of merchandise residence price to turn into regulation.The substantial evidence studies for 2001-2009 years, the timespace of Kaifeng city area merchandise residence price turns into regulation, and put forward to change time to quantity to lead into GWR establishment TGWR the new way of thinking of the model.
(7)The substantial evidence research expresses that merchandise residence price in Kaifeng City presents obvious space to divide different regulation and time to turn into a characteristic:2001-2004 the middle of the year the heart city area(old city area) merchandise residence the price is total top with drum building square and Long Ting Hu for the center present a gradient to descend trend to the periphery and appeared time center at city the gold clear square of the west of embryonic;Till 2009, though the merchandise residence price takes Long Ting Hu as center toward the periphery presents the total structure and form that the gradient descends trend don't change, but the strength of the center declines for the second-class center and formed the Feng value of merchandise residence price in the west of city center.In the meantime, the research still expresses be apart from company's taking the influence degree of foundation factor of center distance, public facilities etc. influence residence price is lowering gradually, some still present obvious space negative related.But new area construction, city planning and city border transportation etc. influence of impact factor upon the residence price is very big.Go into business the absolute variety of article residence price quantity to see, the residence price of old city area changes smaller, but area of new city change very greatly;Seeing from opposite variety quantity, the soaring of total top city suburb merchandise residence price range is again higher than city area in the center, but have a high the gradient of the residence price of obvious difference in the district, the west of city and the north at the gradient of the residence price of the east and the south.
(8)At to the merchandise residence price space the cent difference and time turn into analytical foundation up, live space structure to the city of turned into a characteristic to carry on quest, and from the national system, policy and city planning, residents' income and residents choose to reside behavior and new technique change etc., analyzed its formation reason and motive mechanism, the research detection national system and policy is basic push factor, the city planning has a predominance push function, the residents income difference in city pushed to live space of divide further, the residents choose to reside behavior is live space different for cent of direct motivation, the new technique change continuously changes residential of the space distribute.
(9)Develop the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price relates to of research.Putting forward can synthesize to make use of GIS, the space folds to add an analytical technique and builds up the space of the merchandise residence price and residence land price of the same period to distribute to fold to add economic geography, can investigate the space of building price and land price difference to divide different regulation and guides merchandise residence for government, the price provides a decision basis and buy building for the residents judge whether building price is extremely high provide a reference.
引文
[1]Aitken M,1996,A general maximum likelihood analysis of overdispersion in generalized linear models,Staitisties and Computing,6(3):251-262
[2]Alonso,William,1964,Location and Land Use.Cambridge University Press,65-66
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