甘肃岷县泥石流危险性评价研究
|
摘要
近年来,随着中国山区经济的发展,甘肃省岷县人口的迅速增长使得河谷平地及缓坡地不能满足人们对粮食的需要,导致陡坡地垦荒越来越多,造成山地植被的严重破坏,加剧了水土流失,引起了较多泥石流等地质灾害的发生,直接威胁当地人民的生命和财产的安全。因此,必须加强对贫困山区泥石流灾害机理的研究、危险性评价以及科学的防治措施。本论文征对岷县具体的自然地理环境,通过野外实地考察,结合以往泥石流灾害历史记录和已有文献资料,对全县148条泥石流沟就其发育特征和成因进行了初步的分析和研究。本文将泥石流灾害形成机理和模糊数学理论、突变理论结合起来,分别运用模糊综合判别法和突变级数评价法对研究区90条单沟泥石流和6个泥石流流域单元进行了危险性评价,评价结果与当地实际情况相符合,并提出了合理的防治措施及对策,对岷县经济建设和防灾减灾实践具有重要意义和参考价值。同时,采用突变理论与模糊数学相结合的评价方法,为解决泥石流多准则因子区域危险性评价提供了一种新思路。
全文内容共分以下七部分:
第一部分为引言部分。简要阐明了论文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究进展、研究的理论基础和方法,确定了本文的总体研究思路。和研究区域,提出了目前岷县泥石流的灾害现状问题。
第二部分对岷县气象、水文、土壤植被、地形地貌、地质构造、新构造运动及地震、地下水类型及补、径、排特征作了简要说明。
第三部分通过前面对该区泥石流灾害特征的分析研究,从泥石流形成的三个必备条件地形、松散固体物质、充足的水源入手,分析了岷县泥石流灾害的分布及其发育特征。
第四部分针对岷县所处的地质环境和条件的多样性、变异性、复杂性,泥石流沟谷从形成、发展至消亡受到了很多因素的影响,从而形成了的这样一个较为复杂的泥石流灾害“模糊”巨系统,本文将模糊数学理论引入泥石流危险度的评价研究中。运用模糊综合评判法,参考国内刘希林、宫雪、陈伟等的相关文献,最后确定了沟谷纵比降、流域相对高差、泥沙沿程长度补给比、冲淤变幅、植被覆盖率等8个因素作为泥石流危险性评判因子,对岷县洮河流域90条泥石流沟做了单沟危险性评价,然后分析了泥石流形成和致灾的内在和外在原因,并对将来泥石流灾害的发展趋势做了预测分析。
第五部分是在对泥石流灾害机理分析的基础上,先对突变理论的原理和特征作了总体阐述,然后将泥石流灾害形成机理和突变理论结合起来,运用突变级数模糊隶属度函数评价法对研究区6个泥石流流域单元进行了区域危险性评价,其评价结果为:属于高危险性的区域为洮河干流流域(县城——维新)段、洮河干流流域(县城——西寨)段、纳纳河流域中上游(禾驮)地区,属于中危险性的区域为十里——秦许——寺沟——麻子川南山区、蒲麻——申都——闾井东山区,属于低危险性的区域为马坞-锁龙东山区。最后总结了使用突变级数评价法进行对该区泥石流危险性区划的优点及科学性,并根据评价结果作了危险性综合区划图。
第六部分综合前几部分的研究结果,突出“以人为本”的原则,系统性的提出岷县泥石流灾害的防治对策和措施、建立泥石流灾害监测网点和群测群防的预警系统,为当地政府有计划的开展泥石流灾害防治、减少灾害损失、保护人民生命财产安全提供必要的依据和参考。
第七部分为全文的概括和总结。
Recently, with the development of the economy of mountain area in China, the rapid increase of population in Min county Gansu province, river gulley level land cann’t satisfy people to the grain need and it results in more and more steep slope field to be reclaimed year by year. Meanwhile, the mountain vegetation deterioration , water and soil loss will lead to the more occurrence of the mud-rock flow geology disaster, threatening safety of the local people’s lives and property directly. Therefore, the mud-rock flow disaster mechanism research, hazard assessment, scientific prevention measures of the debris flows must be strengthened. This paper, according to physical geography environment of Min county, field investigation, combining with preliminary records and document data of debris flow disaster in the past, analyzed characteristics and contributing factors of 148 debris flows in Min county. Combining formation mechanism of debris flows hazard with fuzzy mathematics and catastrophe theory, this paper completed hazard assessment of 90 single debris flows and 6 valley units of debris flow in Min county Gansu Province and proposed reasonable prevention measures and countermeasures using respectively fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and Catastrophe Progression Method. The results are found to be coincident with practical situation. It is a important significance and reference value for economic construction, defending and reducing disaster practice of Min county. Meanwhile, the method of evaluation combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics theory proved a new way in solving multiple rule-decision regional dangerons evaluation of debris flows.This thesis is devided into seven parts.
The first part is the preface, briefly introduced the research background, significance, progress of debris flows’home and abroad, as well as the theoretical foundations and methods used in this study, determined the overall research idea .
The second part determined the study area, illustrated briefly characteristics of meteorology, hydrology, soil vegetation, topography, geological structure, earthquake, as well as supply, runoff and drainge of the groundwater. At last, proposed the current disaster situation and facing problems of debris flows.
The third part, according to the previous analysis and research to the characteristic of the debris flows disaster, three basic factors such as rich solid material resource, essential terrain and enough hydrodynamic, analyzed characterrisitics of disitribution and development of the debris flows disaster. According to the diversity, variability, complexity of the geological environment and conditions in Min County, debris flow gully formed a more complicated disaster“fuzzy”system from the formation, development to the disappearance by a lot of factors influence. The fouth part introduced fuzzy mathematics theory into the dangerons evaluation study of the debris flows. This paper which used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and referenced domestic relevant literature of Liu Xilin, Gongxue, Chen Wei, finally selected eight dangerons factors such as valley relative elevation,degree of vegetation cover and so on. It completed single gully risk assessment about the 90 debris flows in the Taohe valley of Min county and analyzed inherent and external causes of formation to the debris flows disaster based on natural and human ecnomical activities, assumed forecast analysis of the develeping trend of Min county debris flow disaster in future.
The fifth part , based on analysing the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster , generally expounds the principle and characteristic of the catastrophe theory. Then, combining the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster with the catastrophe theory, it gave the regional dangerons evaluation of the six river basin with the Catastrophe Progression Method. The evaluation result is that: the areas belonging to high danger are the main stream river of the Taohe river basin (Town- Weixin), (Town-Xizhai), the middle and upper reaches of the Nanahe river basin (region of Hetuo) . The areas belonging to middle danger are Shili-Qinxu-Sigou-Mazichuan southern moutainous district, Puma-Shendu-lvjing eastern moutanious district. The area belonging to low danger is Mawu-Suolong eastern moutanious district. Eventally, it sumed up the merit and the scientific of the zonation of the debris-flow hazards in Min country with the Catastrophe Progression Method, and made the map of the comprehensive zonation of the debris-flow hazards according to the results of the evaluation.
Part VI integrated the parts of the previous research results, highlighted the“people-oriented”principle , proposed systematicly prevention measures and countermeasures of the debris flows disaster in Min county, established monitoring networks and early warning system of mass monitoring and preventing of the debris flows disaster. Meanwhile, it provided the necessary basis and reference according to the plan for the local government to carry out the debris flow disaster prevention, to reduce disaster loss and to protect people’s lives and property.
The seventh part is the paper’s summarization and main conclusions.
全文内容共分以下七部分:
第一部分为引言部分。简要阐明了论文的研究背景和意义、国内外研究进展、研究的理论基础和方法,确定了本文的总体研究思路。和研究区域,提出了目前岷县泥石流的灾害现状问题。
第二部分对岷县气象、水文、土壤植被、地形地貌、地质构造、新构造运动及地震、地下水类型及补、径、排特征作了简要说明。
第三部分通过前面对该区泥石流灾害特征的分析研究,从泥石流形成的三个必备条件地形、松散固体物质、充足的水源入手,分析了岷县泥石流灾害的分布及其发育特征。
第四部分针对岷县所处的地质环境和条件的多样性、变异性、复杂性,泥石流沟谷从形成、发展至消亡受到了很多因素的影响,从而形成了的这样一个较为复杂的泥石流灾害“模糊”巨系统,本文将模糊数学理论引入泥石流危险度的评价研究中。运用模糊综合评判法,参考国内刘希林、宫雪、陈伟等的相关文献,最后确定了沟谷纵比降、流域相对高差、泥沙沿程长度补给比、冲淤变幅、植被覆盖率等8个因素作为泥石流危险性评判因子,对岷县洮河流域90条泥石流沟做了单沟危险性评价,然后分析了泥石流形成和致灾的内在和外在原因,并对将来泥石流灾害的发展趋势做了预测分析。
第五部分是在对泥石流灾害机理分析的基础上,先对突变理论的原理和特征作了总体阐述,然后将泥石流灾害形成机理和突变理论结合起来,运用突变级数模糊隶属度函数评价法对研究区6个泥石流流域单元进行了区域危险性评价,其评价结果为:属于高危险性的区域为洮河干流流域(县城——维新)段、洮河干流流域(县城——西寨)段、纳纳河流域中上游(禾驮)地区,属于中危险性的区域为十里——秦许——寺沟——麻子川南山区、蒲麻——申都——闾井东山区,属于低危险性的区域为马坞-锁龙东山区。最后总结了使用突变级数评价法进行对该区泥石流危险性区划的优点及科学性,并根据评价结果作了危险性综合区划图。
第六部分综合前几部分的研究结果,突出“以人为本”的原则,系统性的提出岷县泥石流灾害的防治对策和措施、建立泥石流灾害监测网点和群测群防的预警系统,为当地政府有计划的开展泥石流灾害防治、减少灾害损失、保护人民生命财产安全提供必要的依据和参考。
第七部分为全文的概括和总结。
Recently, with the development of the economy of mountain area in China, the rapid increase of population in Min county Gansu province, river gulley level land cann’t satisfy people to the grain need and it results in more and more steep slope field to be reclaimed year by year. Meanwhile, the mountain vegetation deterioration , water and soil loss will lead to the more occurrence of the mud-rock flow geology disaster, threatening safety of the local people’s lives and property directly. Therefore, the mud-rock flow disaster mechanism research, hazard assessment, scientific prevention measures of the debris flows must be strengthened. This paper, according to physical geography environment of Min county, field investigation, combining with preliminary records and document data of debris flow disaster in the past, analyzed characteristics and contributing factors of 148 debris flows in Min county. Combining formation mechanism of debris flows hazard with fuzzy mathematics and catastrophe theory, this paper completed hazard assessment of 90 single debris flows and 6 valley units of debris flow in Min county Gansu Province and proposed reasonable prevention measures and countermeasures using respectively fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and Catastrophe Progression Method. The results are found to be coincident with practical situation. It is a important significance and reference value for economic construction, defending and reducing disaster practice of Min county. Meanwhile, the method of evaluation combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics theory proved a new way in solving multiple rule-decision regional dangerons evaluation of debris flows.This thesis is devided into seven parts.
The first part is the preface, briefly introduced the research background, significance, progress of debris flows’home and abroad, as well as the theoretical foundations and methods used in this study, determined the overall research idea .
The second part determined the study area, illustrated briefly characteristics of meteorology, hydrology, soil vegetation, topography, geological structure, earthquake, as well as supply, runoff and drainge of the groundwater. At last, proposed the current disaster situation and facing problems of debris flows.
The third part, according to the previous analysis and research to the characteristic of the debris flows disaster, three basic factors such as rich solid material resource, essential terrain and enough hydrodynamic, analyzed characterrisitics of disitribution and development of the debris flows disaster. According to the diversity, variability, complexity of the geological environment and conditions in Min County, debris flow gully formed a more complicated disaster“fuzzy”system from the formation, development to the disappearance by a lot of factors influence. The fouth part introduced fuzzy mathematics theory into the dangerons evaluation study of the debris flows. This paper which used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and referenced domestic relevant literature of Liu Xilin, Gongxue, Chen Wei, finally selected eight dangerons factors such as valley relative elevation,degree of vegetation cover and so on. It completed single gully risk assessment about the 90 debris flows in the Taohe valley of Min county and analyzed inherent and external causes of formation to the debris flows disaster based on natural and human ecnomical activities, assumed forecast analysis of the develeping trend of Min county debris flow disaster in future.
The fifth part , based on analysing the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster , generally expounds the principle and characteristic of the catastrophe theory. Then, combining the mechanism of the mud-rock flow disaster with the catastrophe theory, it gave the regional dangerons evaluation of the six river basin with the Catastrophe Progression Method. The evaluation result is that: the areas belonging to high danger are the main stream river of the Taohe river basin (Town- Weixin), (Town-Xizhai), the middle and upper reaches of the Nanahe river basin (region of Hetuo) . The areas belonging to middle danger are Shili-Qinxu-Sigou-Mazichuan southern moutainous district, Puma-Shendu-lvjing eastern moutanious district. The area belonging to low danger is Mawu-Suolong eastern moutanious district. Eventally, it sumed up the merit and the scientific of the zonation of the debris-flow hazards in Min country with the Catastrophe Progression Method, and made the map of the comprehensive zonation of the debris-flow hazards according to the results of the evaluation.
Part VI integrated the parts of the previous research results, highlighted the“people-oriented”principle , proposed systematicly prevention measures and countermeasures of the debris flows disaster in Min county, established monitoring networks and early warning system of mass monitoring and preventing of the debris flows disaster. Meanwhile, it provided the necessary basis and reference according to the plan for the local government to carry out the debris flow disaster prevention, to reduce disaster loss and to protect people’s lives and property.
The seventh part is the paper’s summarization and main conclusions.
引文
[1]黄润秋.工程地质[M].成都:成都科技大学出版社,1993.
[2]孙广忠,王昂生等.中国自然灾害[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1990.
[3]罗康军.丹巴县邓山沟泥石流成因及发展演化规律研究[D].2005硕士论文
[4]杜榕桓,李鸿琏,唐邦兴,章书成.30年来的中国泥石流研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,(4)1:65-70.
[5]杨具瑞,方铎,成自勇,何文社,郭志学等.甘肃泥石流灾害及其分布研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(6):92-95.
[6]牛叔文,刘大千.西北地区荒漠化环境演变[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,2001,18-19.
[7]www.Jledu.com.cn/bksc/dili/
[8]Harry M.Blijenberg。Application of physical modelling of debris flowtriggeringto field conditions:Limitations posed by boundary conditions。Engineering Geology, 91 (2007) 25– 33。
[9]钱宁,王兆印.泥石流运动机理的初步探讨[J].地理学报,1984,39(1) :33-43.
[10]严钦尚,曾昭璇.地貌学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1985.56-56.
[11]吴积善,田连权.论泥石流学[J].山地研究,1996,14(2):89-95.
[12]杨景春,李有利.地貌学原理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2001.34-34.
[13]高抒、张捷.现代地貌学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.286-286.
[14]刘希林.国外泥石流机理模型综述[J].灾害学,2002,17(4):2-5.
[15]张丽芳,唐少卿.甘肃泥石流灾害的特点、成因及对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,1994,8(4):28-34.
[16]杜榕桓.泥石流观测与研究[M].科学出版社,1996.
[17]吴积善,王成华,程尊兰等.中国山地灾害防治工程[J].四川科学技术出版社,1997.
[18]Takahashi T,Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous zones:Soft countermeasures for a disaster[J].JOURAL OF NATURAL DISASTER SCIENCE,(3),1981,57-89.
[19]石川芳治,水山高久,井户清尾.堆积扇上泥石流堆积泛滥机理,泥石流及洪水灾害防御国际学术讨论会文集(成都),A(泥石流),1991,27-31.
[20]唐川.泥石流堆积扇研究综述,首届全国泥石流滑坡防治学术会议论文集[M].云南科技出版社,1993,6-11.
[21] Olivier Lateltin.Example of hazard assessment and land-use planning inSwitzerland for snow avalanches, floods and landslides,Swiss nationalhydrological and geological survey,Bern,1998.
[22] Hungr O. Morgan C. G. Vandine F.D. etc. Debris flow defenses in BritishColumbia, GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA REVIEWS IN ENGINEERING GEOLOGY,1987,201-222.
[23]谭炳炎.泥石流沟严重程度的数量化综合评判,泥石流防治理论与实践[M].西南交通大学出版社,1991,45-71.
[24]刘希林.泥石流危险度判定的研究[J].灾害学,1988,3(3):10-15.
[25]唐川,刘希林,朱静.泥石流堆积泛滥区危险度的评价与应用[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(4):79～84.
[26]CHENG-LUN SHIEH,CHYAN-DENG JAN and YUAN-FAN TSAI,A Numerical Simulationof Debris Flow and Its Application,Natural Hazards 13,1996,39-54.
[27]罗元华.泥石流堆积数值模拟及泥石流灾害风险评估方法研究[D].博士论文,1998.
[28]曾思伟,王得楷.泥石流研究与展望[J].甘肃科学学报,2003,15(8):10-14.
[29]赵源.风险评价技术在2003年“7. 11”泥石流灾害评价中的应用[J].灾害学,2004,19(1):35-39.
[30]余宏明,哀宏成,店辉明.巴东县新城区冲沟泥石流危险度评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,(50):47-49.
[31]邵颂东,上礼先.北京山区泥石流运动数值模拟及危险区制图[J].北京林业大学学报,1999,21(6):11-16.
[32]褚洪斌,母海东,王金哲.层次分析法在太行山区地质灾害危险性分区中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(3):125-129.
[33]钟敦伦,韦方强,谢洪.长江上游泥石流危险度区划的原则与指标[J].山地研究,1994,12(2):78-83.
[34]魏永明,谢又予.关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法在泥石流沟谷危险度划分中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):109-116.
[35]唐川,朱静.GIS支持下的滇西北地区泥石流灾害评价[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(6):84-87.
[36]李志斌,郑成德.滑坡、泥石流危险度评判的灰色模式识别理论与模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,19(2):129-132.
[37]汪明武.基于神经网络的泥石流危险度区划[J].水文地质工程地质,2000,(2):18-19.
[38]汪明武,金菊良,李丽.投影寻踪新方法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].水土保持学报,2002,16(6):79-81.
[39]刘洪江,韩用顺,江玉红,张继.云南昆明东川区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(6):246-249.
[40]陆中臣,贾绍风,黄克新等.流域地貌系统[M].大连:大连出版社,1991,6-35.
[41]韦方强,胡凯衡.泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(1):23-27.
[42]李阔,唐川.泥石流危险性评价研究进展[J].灾害学,2007,22(1):106-111.
[43]刘洪江,韩用顺等.云南昆明东川区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(6):245-249.
[44]胡浩鹏.北京市泥石流灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[D].2007硕士论文.
[45]王晓朋,潘懋,任群智.基于流域系统地貌信息熵的泥石流危险性定量评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):211-215.
[46]李新坡,莫多闻.应用GIS和神经网络方法进行泥石流危险度评价的研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(8):6-9.
[47]铁永波,周春花,朱佳.系统理论在泥石流研究中的应用刍议[J].云南地理环境研究,2005,17(1):36-39.
[48]柳金峰,欧国强.泥石流危险性评价的耗散结构分析[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(1):123-125.
[49]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[50]樊明.陇南市暴雨成因分析及引发泥石流滑坡灾害研究[D].硕士论文.2006.3.
[51]王晰.泥石流沟危险度的模糊评判[J].重庆师范学院学报,2002,19(1):22-25.
[52]陈伟等.泥石流危险度的模糊综合评判[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(2):138-140.
[53]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[54]余宏明,袁宏成等.巴东县新城区冲沟泥石流危险度评价[J].水文地质下程地质,2004(增刊).
[55]王欣宝,王艳等.河北元氏县佃户营泥石流危险性评价与防治[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2000, 11(3):93-97.
[56]戚杰.突变理论在环境建模中的应用[D].华中科技大学硕士论文.2005,5.
[57]J.L.Hooley,E.V.J.Cohn.Model of field layer vegetation interactions in anexperimental secondary woodland. Ecological Modeling,(169)2002:89-102.
[58]Abbasi,S.A,&Vineethan,S.Environmental impact of industries on suburban environments. New Delhi: Discovery Publishing House,1997.
[59]Khan,F.L,&Abbasi,S.A.(1998a).Models for domino effect analysis in chemical process industries.Process Safety ProgressAIChE,17(2):107-113.
[60]Collados,C.Duane,T.P.Natural capital and quality of life:a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths.Ecological Economics,1999,30:441-460.
[61]都兴富.突变理论在经济领域的应用(下册)股票分析多准则决策[M].成都:电子科技大学出版社,1994:15-147.
[62]高隆昌.关于突变论的一点注记[J].系统工程学报,1997,12(3):89-93.
[63]铁永波,周春花,朱佳.系统理论在泥石流研究中的应用当议[J].云南地理环境研究,2005,17(1):36-38.
[64]郭健.基于突变理论的复杂系统的脆性研究[D].2002硕士论文.
[65]孙雪峰,于莲.水生态系统的突变模型[J].水科学与工程技术,2007,12(1):39-41.
[66]汤丽萍.突变控制机制及其应用研究[D].2004博士论文.
[67]黄奕龙.突变级数法在水资源持续利用评价中的应用[J].干旱环境监测,2001,15(3):167-170.
[68]李艳,陈晓宏,张鹏飞.突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,(17):50-54.
[69]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-53.
[70]刘章军.基于模糊概率方法的泥石流危险性评价[J].三峡大学学报,2007,29(3):295-298.
[71]符保龙,韦文惠,陈如云.基于熵权的模糊综合分析法在空气质量评价中的应用[J].柳州职业技术学院学报.2007,7(2):83-86.
[72]崔瑞萍.白龙江中游滑坡泥石流防治体系与效益的研究[D].硕士论文,2005,24-25.
[73]许晓鸿,张军海,王耀邦.加强水土保持减轻泥石流灾害[J].水土保持科技情报,1999,29(3):45-51.
[74]张桂香,王士革,孟国才,张金山.四川省金川县八步里沟泥石流灾害治理现状及对策[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(2):131-137.
[75]张宏卫.罗玉沟流域泥石流灾害防治措施探[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2005,41(3):273-274.
[76]麦华山,徐林荣等.基于超熵理论的泥石流危险性模糊综合评判[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2007,18(4):62-66.
[77]胡浩鹏.北京市泥石流灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[D].硕士论文,2007,2-3.
[78]史志富,张安等.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1011-1013.
[79]宫雪,佴磊.南芬铁矿排土场泥石流危险度评判[J].中国水土保持,2007,1(1):53-54.
[80]郑文俊,雷中生等.1573年甘肃岷县地震史料考证与发震构造探讨[J].中国地震,2007,23(1):75-83.
[2]孙广忠,王昂生等.中国自然灾害[M].北京:学术书刊出版社,1990.
[3]罗康军.丹巴县邓山沟泥石流成因及发展演化规律研究[D].2005硕士论文
[4]杜榕桓,李鸿琏,唐邦兴,章书成.30年来的中国泥石流研究[J].自然灾害学报,1995,(4)1:65-70.
[5]杨具瑞,方铎,成自勇,何文社,郭志学等.甘肃泥石流灾害及其分布研究[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(6):92-95.
[6]牛叔文,刘大千.西北地区荒漠化环境演变[M].北京:中国农业科技出版社,2001,18-19.
[7]www.Jledu.com.cn/bksc/dili/
[8]Harry M.Blijenberg。Application of physical modelling of debris flowtriggeringto field conditions:Limitations posed by boundary conditions。Engineering Geology, 91 (2007) 25– 33。
[9]钱宁,王兆印.泥石流运动机理的初步探讨[J].地理学报,1984,39(1) :33-43.
[10]严钦尚,曾昭璇.地貌学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,1985.56-56.
[11]吴积善,田连权.论泥石流学[J].山地研究,1996,14(2):89-95.
[12]杨景春,李有利.地貌学原理[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2001.34-34.
[13]高抒、张捷.现代地貌学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2006.286-286.
[14]刘希林.国外泥石流机理模型综述[J].灾害学,2002,17(4):2-5.
[15]张丽芳,唐少卿.甘肃泥石流灾害的特点、成因及对策[J].干旱区资源与环境,1994,8(4):28-34.
[16]杜榕桓.泥石流观测与研究[M].科学出版社,1996.
[17]吴积善,王成华,程尊兰等.中国山地灾害防治工程[J].四川科学技术出版社,1997.
[18]Takahashi T,Estimation of potential debris flows and their hazardous zones:Soft countermeasures for a disaster[J].JOURAL OF NATURAL DISASTER SCIENCE,(3),1981,57-89.
[19]石川芳治,水山高久,井户清尾.堆积扇上泥石流堆积泛滥机理,泥石流及洪水灾害防御国际学术讨论会文集(成都),A(泥石流),1991,27-31.
[20]唐川.泥石流堆积扇研究综述,首届全国泥石流滑坡防治学术会议论文集[M].云南科技出版社,1993,6-11.
[21] Olivier Lateltin.Example of hazard assessment and land-use planning inSwitzerland for snow avalanches, floods and landslides,Swiss nationalhydrological and geological survey,Bern,1998.
[22] Hungr O. Morgan C. G. Vandine F.D. etc. Debris flow defenses in BritishColumbia, GEOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA REVIEWS IN ENGINEERING GEOLOGY,1987,201-222.
[23]谭炳炎.泥石流沟严重程度的数量化综合评判,泥石流防治理论与实践[M].西南交通大学出版社,1991,45-71.
[24]刘希林.泥石流危险度判定的研究[J].灾害学,1988,3(3):10-15.
[25]唐川,刘希林,朱静.泥石流堆积泛滥区危险度的评价与应用[J].自然灾害学报,1993,2(4):79～84.
[26]CHENG-LUN SHIEH,CHYAN-DENG JAN and YUAN-FAN TSAI,A Numerical Simulationof Debris Flow and Its Application,Natural Hazards 13,1996,39-54.
[27]罗元华.泥石流堆积数值模拟及泥石流灾害风险评估方法研究[D].博士论文,1998.
[28]曾思伟,王得楷.泥石流研究与展望[J].甘肃科学学报,2003,15(8):10-14.
[29]赵源.风险评价技术在2003年“7. 11”泥石流灾害评价中的应用[J].灾害学,2004,19(1):35-39.
[30]余宏明,哀宏成,店辉明.巴东县新城区冲沟泥石流危险度评价[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,(50):47-49.
[31]邵颂东,上礼先.北京山区泥石流运动数值模拟及危险区制图[J].北京林业大学学报,1999,21(6):11-16.
[32]褚洪斌,母海东,王金哲.层次分析法在太行山区地质灾害危险性分区中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(3):125-129.
[33]钟敦伦,韦方强,谢洪.长江上游泥石流危险度区划的原则与指标[J].山地研究,1994,12(2):78-83.
[34]魏永明,谢又予.关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法在泥石流沟谷危险度划分中的应用[J].自然灾害学报,1998,7(2):109-116.
[35]唐川,朱静.GIS支持下的滇西北地区泥石流灾害评价[J].水土保持学报,2001,15(6):84-87.
[36]李志斌,郑成德.滑坡、泥石流危险度评判的灰色模式识别理论与模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2000,19(2):129-132.
[37]汪明武.基于神经网络的泥石流危险度区划[J].水文地质工程地质,2000,(2):18-19.
[38]汪明武,金菊良,李丽.投影寻踪新方法在泥石流危险度评价中的应用[J].水土保持学报,2002,16(6):79-81.
[39]刘洪江,韩用顺,江玉红,张继.云南昆明东川区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(6):246-249.
[40]陆中臣,贾绍风,黄克新等.流域地貌系统[M].大连:大连出版社,1991,6-35.
[41]韦方强,胡凯衡.泥石流危险性分区及其在泥石流减灾中的应用[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2007,18(1):23-27.
[42]李阔,唐川.泥石流危险性评价研究进展[J].灾害学,2007,22(1):106-111.
[43]刘洪江,韩用顺等.云南昆明东川区泥石流危险性评价[J].水土保持研究,2007,14(6):245-249.
[44]胡浩鹏.北京市泥石流灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[D].2007硕士论文.
[45]王晓朋,潘懋,任群智.基于流域系统地貌信息熵的泥石流危险性定量评价[J].北京大学学报(自然科学版),2007,43(2):211-215.
[46]李新坡,莫多闻.应用GIS和神经网络方法进行泥石流危险度评价的研究[J].水土保持研究,2005,12(8):6-9.
[47]铁永波,周春花,朱佳.系统理论在泥石流研究中的应用刍议[J].云南地理环境研究,2005,17(1):36-39.
[48]柳金峰,欧国强.泥石流危险性评价的耗散结构分析[J].水土保持研究,2004,11(1):123-125.
[49]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-54.
[50]樊明.陇南市暴雨成因分析及引发泥石流滑坡灾害研究[D].硕士论文.2006.3.
[51]王晰.泥石流沟危险度的模糊评判[J].重庆师范学院学报,2002,19(1):22-25.
[52]陈伟等.泥石流危险度的模糊综合评判[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(2):138-140.
[53]徐建华.现代地理学中的数学方法(第二版)[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002.
[54]余宏明,袁宏成等.巴东县新城区冲沟泥石流危险度评价[J].水文地质下程地质,2004(增刊).
[55]王欣宝,王艳等.河北元氏县佃户营泥石流危险性评价与防治[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2000, 11(3):93-97.
[56]戚杰.突变理论在环境建模中的应用[D].华中科技大学硕士论文.2005,5.
[57]J.L.Hooley,E.V.J.Cohn.Model of field layer vegetation interactions in anexperimental secondary woodland. Ecological Modeling,(169)2002:89-102.
[58]Abbasi,S.A,&Vineethan,S.Environmental impact of industries on suburban environments. New Delhi: Discovery Publishing House,1997.
[59]Khan,F.L,&Abbasi,S.A.(1998a).Models for domino effect analysis in chemical process industries.Process Safety ProgressAIChE,17(2):107-113.
[60]Collados,C.Duane,T.P.Natural capital and quality of life:a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths.Ecological Economics,1999,30:441-460.
[61]都兴富.突变理论在经济领域的应用(下册)股票分析多准则决策[M].成都:电子科技大学出版社,1994:15-147.
[62]高隆昌.关于突变论的一点注记[J].系统工程学报,1997,12(3):89-93.
[63]铁永波,周春花,朱佳.系统理论在泥石流研究中的应用当议[J].云南地理环境研究,2005,17(1):36-38.
[64]郭健.基于突变理论的复杂系统的脆性研究[D].2002硕士论文.
[65]孙雪峰,于莲.水生态系统的突变模型[J].水科学与工程技术,2007,12(1):39-41.
[66]汤丽萍.突变控制机制及其应用研究[D].2004博士论文.
[67]黄奕龙.突变级数法在水资源持续利用评价中的应用[J].干旱环境监测,2001,15(3):167-170.
[68]李艳,陈晓宏,张鹏飞.突变级数法在区域生态系统健康评价中的应用[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2007,(17):50-54.
[69]周绍江.突变理论在环境影响评价中的应用[J].人民长江,2003,34(2):52-53.
[70]刘章军.基于模糊概率方法的泥石流危险性评价[J].三峡大学学报,2007,29(3):295-298.
[71]符保龙,韦文惠,陈如云.基于熵权的模糊综合分析法在空气质量评价中的应用[J].柳州职业技术学院学报.2007,7(2):83-86.
[72]崔瑞萍.白龙江中游滑坡泥石流防治体系与效益的研究[D].硕士论文,2005,24-25.
[73]许晓鸿,张军海,王耀邦.加强水土保持减轻泥石流灾害[J].水土保持科技情报,1999,29(3):45-51.
[74]张桂香,王士革,孟国才,张金山.四川省金川县八步里沟泥石流灾害治理现状及对策[J].水土保持研究,2006,13(2):131-137.
[75]张宏卫.罗玉沟流域泥石流灾害防治措施探[J].甘肃水利水电技术,2005,41(3):273-274.
[76]麦华山,徐林荣等.基于超熵理论的泥石流危险性模糊综合评判[J].地质灾害与环境保护,2007,18(4):62-66.
[77]胡浩鹏.北京市泥石流灾害风险评估指标体系及方法研究[D].硕士论文,2007,2-3.
[78]史志富,张安等.基于突变理论与模糊集的复杂系统多准则决策[J].系统工程与电子技术,2006,28(7):1011-1013.
[79]宫雪,佴磊.南芬铁矿排土场泥石流危险度评判[J].中国水土保持,2007,1(1):53-54.
[80]郑文俊,雷中生等.1573年甘肃岷县地震史料考证与发震构造探讨[J].中国地震,2007,23(1):75-83.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |