农户生产、消费和非农劳动联动增长机理与政策研究
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摘要
农户(农民家庭)是我国农业经济活动的基本单位,其普遍具有的农产品商品率低、兼业化程度高、非农收入比例大等特征,也使我国农户成为一个典型的集农业生产者、非农劳动(供给)者和消费者于一体的复杂的经济行为主体。国家宏观经济与政策环境的变化,尤其是农产品与劳动力市场变化,将影响农户的农业生产和非农劳动供给及收入和消费需求；同时,农户的生产、劳动和消费决策也会对农业与宏观经济发展甚至政府政策的实施效果产生很大的影响。因此,从微观层面上研究农户生产、消费与非农劳动三者之间的关联,对判断我国农业生产、农村消费和劳动力转移的变化趋势具有十分重要的现实意义。
本文以农户为出发点,基于新家庭经济学理论,将农户的生产、消费和非农劳动问题纳入一个整体分析框架,构建了一个反映中国农户基本经济特征的“中国农户模型(简称'CAHM'模型)”；在此基础上,采用对山西、河南、安徽、陕西、山东、浙江等六省九市10村482户农户的实地调查数据,对不同地区的代表性农户分别建立CAHM模型,模拟分析粮食补贴、生产资料价格、农产品价格和劳动力价格等政策市场环境变化对农户生产、消费和非农劳动变化的影响效应及其所表现出的联动关系,以揭示农户生产、消费和非农劳动的联动增长机理；据此进一步提出以提高农户家庭收入为目标,促进农业生产发展、增加农民非农劳动机会和提高农民消费水平的政策启示。本研究的主要内容与结论包含以下五个方面：
第一,农户生产、消费和非农劳动问题研究的理论分析框架。在分析中国农户基本经济特征的基础上,基于农户模型理论,建立了一个融生产者、劳动者、和消费者于一体的中国农户模型("CAHM'模型”),提出了该模型的一般结构、数学表达及求解方法,为下文的研究提供了一般分析思路与方法。
第二,农户农业生产、非农劳动和消费需求的地区差异及成因研究。采用农户实地调研数据,在对样本户进行描述性统计分析的基础上,采用计量经济学模型方法,实证分析了形成农户生产、消费和非农劳动地区差异的主要影响因素,同时也为实证建立不同地区代表性农户的CAHM模型提供必要参数。结果表明：(1)农业政策、区域经济、公共服务、基础设施、资源环境等构成了影响农户经济决策的重要外部因素；(2)东部地区样本户的农业生产资源有限、种粮比较利益低下,中西部地区样本户家庭成员“农忙务农、农闲打工”的兼业化特征突出,不同地区、不同类型的农户普遍食品消费比重偏高,生产支出总量不足；(3)农户家庭效用取决于其收入及闲暇,且对闲暇的弹性大于对收入的弹性；(4)以非农收入为主的农户更趋向于较大幅度地将其土地转出；(5)主要农产品及生产资料价格等对农户农业生产投入具有显著影响,而家庭收入和消费品价格对农户生活消费总量及结构的作用显著。
第三,不同地区代表性农户的CAHM模型构建与实证研究。基于CAHM模型的一般结构,对不同地区六个代表性农户分别构建了实证分析模型。模型优化结果显示：(1)农户家庭生产、消费与非农劳动三者之间呈现明显的联动增长关系；(2)在当前政策环境下,农户生产、消费和非农劳动具有较大的调整空间；(3)以小规模、单一化种植业为主的农户愈加转向兼业化、多元化的生产经营方式以提高家庭收入,且家庭非食品消费增幅明显高于食品消费增幅。
第四,不同情景下代表性农户生产、消费与非农劳动的模拟优化分析。本文以粮食补贴政策、生产资料价格、农产品市场价格和劳动力价格变化为四种不同情景,对不同代表性农户的CAHM模型进行模拟优化分析。结果反映出：(1)由于农业劳动机会成本高于粮食生产收益,粮食补贴提高15%-25%对小农户几乎不具增产与增收效应；(2)农资价格上涨10%或20%,将使农户粮食减产超过10%,而部分畜禽品种出现反常供给,非农劳动投入至少增加20%,同时也导致农户食品消费来源结构的变化；(3)当主要粮食及畜禽产品价格分别增长10%和30%,农户粮食生产结构基本不变,粮食总产提高8%,而畜禽生产结构变化较大,部分畜禽养殖规模甚至翻一番；除增加自给性实物消费以节省开支之外,户均劳动供给上升超过2%带来家庭增收大于10%,以此缓解家庭增支压力；(4)劳动力工资提高15%-20%将引起农户农业劳动减少12%,非农劳动增加22%,收入提高促进生活消费支出上升4%,但对农业投入却没有积极影响；(5)粮食补贴、农资价格、农产品价格和劳动力价格对不同农户生产、消费和非农劳动的影响不同,这些政策市场环境变化对以农业收入为主、非农劳动机会较少的中西部地区农户家庭影响相对较大。
第五,主要结论与政策启示。在归纳本文主要研究结论之基础上,以提高农业生产收益、改善农户生活消费水平、增加农民非农劳动机会为目标,从增强小农户对政策市场环境的适应能力、提高粮食补贴力度并扩大补贴范围、稳定农资及农产品价格、完善劳动力市场体系等方面提出了本文的政策启示。
本文的创新之处可能在于：从研究视角来看,本文突破了现有文献主要以单独的视角研究农户农业生产、消费或劳动就业问题的局限性,而将三者视为一个整体,来研究政策环境变化下的农户生产、消费与非农劳动互动关系；在研究方法上,本文充分考虑农户的经济基本特征,构建了不可分的中国农户模型,对不同地区和不同类型的代表性农户进行模拟分析,使研究结果更具现实性和可靠性；同时,本文建立的CAHM模型,通过模型数据和参数的更新,可以成为一种科学的微观农业政策分析工具；在研究成果上,本文基于CAHM模型研究得出有关农户生产、消费与劳动就业等方面的大量信息,将具有较高的科学性和实用价值,可以为政府制定有关农业政策提供前瞻性的决策依据。
Agricultural household (peasant family) is the basic unit of agricultural economic activities in our country. Its general characteristics, such as low commodity rate of agricultural products, high degree of concurrent occupation, a large proportion of non-farm income, etc., make Chinese agricultural household a complex economic subject which is a typical set of agricultural producer, non-farm labor (supplier) and consumer. The environment change of national macro economy and policy, especially the market change of agricultural products and labors will affect the agricultural production, non-farm labor supply, income and consumer demand of the agricultural household. Meanwhile, the agricultural household's decision on production, non-farm labor and consumption will also have a huge impact on macro economic development and even the implementation effect of government policies. Therefore, research on the reciprocal relationship among production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households from micro perspective has a very important practical significance to judge the trend of agricultural production, rural consumption as well as labor transfer.
Starting from agricultural household, based on new family economics, this study integrates production, consumption and non-farm labor issues of the agricultural household into an overall analytical framework, and constructs a Chinese agricultural household model ('CAHM'model) reflecting the basic economic characteristics of the Chinese agricultural household. On this basis, through the data of the field survey on482agricultural households from ten villages of nine cities in six provinces of Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, representative agricultural households from different regions are used to build CAHM models respectively. Models are exploited to stimulate and analyze the effects of food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products, the price of labor on production, consumption and non-farm labor, as well as the interaction among the three above in the agricultural households, to reveal the coordinated growth mechanism of production, consumption and non-farm labor of the agricultural households. Accordingly, policy implications are proposed aiming at raising the income of the agricultural households to promote the agricultural production, increasing the chance of non-farm employment and improving the consumption level of the peasants. The main contents and conclusions contain the following five parts:
First, theoretical analysis framework is built for the research on production, consumption and non-labor of Chinese agricultural household. Based on the analysis of basic economic characteristic of Chinese agricultural household, Chinese agricultural household model is constructed which combines producers, consumers and workers together, according to the theory of agricultural household. And also the model structure, mathematical expression and solving method are analyzed in detail. All these provide the general idea for the following research.
Second, the economic status of sample households is analyzed comparatively and the genesis of their differences is studied empirically. Based on the descriptive statistical analysis of the sample households by the field research data, the econometric models are used to research the main factors that make the regional difference of production, consumption and non-farm labor in various agricultural households. These also provide the necessary parameters for empirically establishing the CAHM model for representative agricultural households from different regions. The results show that:(1) agricultural policy, regional economy, public services, infrastructure, resources and environment constitute the important external factors which influence the economic decisions of the agricultural households.(2) As to the sample households of the eastern China, agricultural production resource is limited and comparative advantage of grain is low; As to the sample households of the midwest, the feature of concurrent occupation which is "farming in the busy agricultural season and non-farm employment in the slack agricultural season" is prominent; There is in general a high proportion of food consumption and a lack of production expenditures in agricultural households from different regions and types.(3) The utility of agricultural household depends on income and leisure, and the leisure elasticity is greater than the income elasticity.(4) Agricultural households dominated by the non-farm income tend to transfer out of their farmland.(5) For the agricultural households, the prices of agricultural production means and agricultural products have the significant effects on the agricultural investment, while household income and consumer price have the significant effects on the structure and quantity of living consumption.
Third, the CAHM models of the representative agricultural household from different regions are constructed and studied empirically. Based on the general structure of CAHM model, six representative agricultural household are constructed empirical model respectively. The optimization results of the models show that:(1)
The production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households exists the obvious coordinated growth relationships.(2) There is a lager adjusting space for production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households in the current policy environment.(3) The agricultural households endowed with small scale and single farming are increasingly turning their operation modes to concurrent occupation and diversification, in order to improve household income. And the growth rate of non-food consumption is significantly higher than that of food consumption in the agricultural households.
Fourth, the production, consumption and non-farm labor are studied by simulation, optimization under different scenarios. This dissertation takes food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products and the price of labor as four different scenarios, uses the CAHM model of each representative agricultural household for simulation and optimization analysis. It is reflected that:(1) There are little effects of15%-25%raises of the food subsidies on production and income increase of small agricultural households, due to that the opportunity cost of farm labor is higher than the food production income.(2) If the prices of major agricultural production mean increases10%or20%, the food production of the agricultural household will decline over10%, while some breeds of livestock are supplied abnormally. The non-farm labor will increase by at least20%, which leads to the source structure change of food demand in agricultural households.(3) When the price of major grain and livestock products increase10%and30%respectively, the grain production structure is essentially the same and the total grain production increases8%, while livestock production structure changes considerably, part of the livestock breeding scale even double the size. In addition to increasing the self-sufficient consumption of subsistence to save expenses, the average labor supply of the agricultural households increases more than2%, which increases over10%of the family income to ease the incremental pressure.(4) The15%-20%growths of labor wages leads to12%reduction of farm labor and22%increase of non-farm labor in the agricultural household. The improvement of income makes the living consumption expenditure increase by4%, but does not indicate positive effects on agricultural inputs.(5) There are different influences of food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products and the price of labor on production, consumption and non-farm labor of various agricultural households. The change of these policy and market environment has greatly affects the midwest agricultural households with income mainly from agriculture and with less non-farm opportunities.
Fifth, it is the main conclusions and policy implications. Based on summarizing the main conclusions of this study, policy implications are proposed from the aspects that enhance the ability of small agricultural household to adapt to the policy-market environment, increase food subsidies and expand subsidies range, stable the price of agricultural means and products, and improve the system of labor market, etc, in order to raise the income of agricultural production, improve the consumption level of the agricultural households, and increase the non-farm employment chance of peasants.
The innovation of this dissertation lies in that: From a theoretical perspective, it breaks through the limitations of previous study on the agricultural household issue of production, consumption or employment separately, and takes these three as a whole to explore the interaction among production, consumption, and non-farm labor of the agricultural household. In the aspect of research method, the non-separate model CAHM is built, considering the basic economic characteristics of Chinese agricultural households. Updated by the data and parameters, CAHM will become a microscopic analysis tool for agricultural policy. As to the research results, a large number of micro-quantitative information about production, consumption and employment of the agricultural households concluded from CAHM model studies with high scientific and practical value, will provide forward-looking decision basis for making agricultural policy of the government.
本文以农户为出发点,基于新家庭经济学理论,将农户的生产、消费和非农劳动问题纳入一个整体分析框架,构建了一个反映中国农户基本经济特征的“中国农户模型(简称'CAHM'模型)”；在此基础上,采用对山西、河南、安徽、陕西、山东、浙江等六省九市10村482户农户的实地调查数据,对不同地区的代表性农户分别建立CAHM模型,模拟分析粮食补贴、生产资料价格、农产品价格和劳动力价格等政策市场环境变化对农户生产、消费和非农劳动变化的影响效应及其所表现出的联动关系,以揭示农户生产、消费和非农劳动的联动增长机理；据此进一步提出以提高农户家庭收入为目标,促进农业生产发展、增加农民非农劳动机会和提高农民消费水平的政策启示。本研究的主要内容与结论包含以下五个方面：
第一,农户生产、消费和非农劳动问题研究的理论分析框架。在分析中国农户基本经济特征的基础上,基于农户模型理论,建立了一个融生产者、劳动者、和消费者于一体的中国农户模型("CAHM'模型”),提出了该模型的一般结构、数学表达及求解方法,为下文的研究提供了一般分析思路与方法。
第二,农户农业生产、非农劳动和消费需求的地区差异及成因研究。采用农户实地调研数据,在对样本户进行描述性统计分析的基础上,采用计量经济学模型方法,实证分析了形成农户生产、消费和非农劳动地区差异的主要影响因素,同时也为实证建立不同地区代表性农户的CAHM模型提供必要参数。结果表明：(1)农业政策、区域经济、公共服务、基础设施、资源环境等构成了影响农户经济决策的重要外部因素；(2)东部地区样本户的农业生产资源有限、种粮比较利益低下,中西部地区样本户家庭成员“农忙务农、农闲打工”的兼业化特征突出,不同地区、不同类型的农户普遍食品消费比重偏高,生产支出总量不足；(3)农户家庭效用取决于其收入及闲暇,且对闲暇的弹性大于对收入的弹性；(4)以非农收入为主的农户更趋向于较大幅度地将其土地转出；(5)主要农产品及生产资料价格等对农户农业生产投入具有显著影响,而家庭收入和消费品价格对农户生活消费总量及结构的作用显著。
第三,不同地区代表性农户的CAHM模型构建与实证研究。基于CAHM模型的一般结构,对不同地区六个代表性农户分别构建了实证分析模型。模型优化结果显示：(1)农户家庭生产、消费与非农劳动三者之间呈现明显的联动增长关系；(2)在当前政策环境下,农户生产、消费和非农劳动具有较大的调整空间；(3)以小规模、单一化种植业为主的农户愈加转向兼业化、多元化的生产经营方式以提高家庭收入,且家庭非食品消费增幅明显高于食品消费增幅。
第四,不同情景下代表性农户生产、消费与非农劳动的模拟优化分析。本文以粮食补贴政策、生产资料价格、农产品市场价格和劳动力价格变化为四种不同情景,对不同代表性农户的CAHM模型进行模拟优化分析。结果反映出：(1)由于农业劳动机会成本高于粮食生产收益,粮食补贴提高15%-25%对小农户几乎不具增产与增收效应；(2)农资价格上涨10%或20%,将使农户粮食减产超过10%,而部分畜禽品种出现反常供给,非农劳动投入至少增加20%,同时也导致农户食品消费来源结构的变化；(3)当主要粮食及畜禽产品价格分别增长10%和30%,农户粮食生产结构基本不变,粮食总产提高8%,而畜禽生产结构变化较大,部分畜禽养殖规模甚至翻一番；除增加自给性实物消费以节省开支之外,户均劳动供给上升超过2%带来家庭增收大于10%,以此缓解家庭增支压力；(4)劳动力工资提高15%-20%将引起农户农业劳动减少12%,非农劳动增加22%,收入提高促进生活消费支出上升4%,但对农业投入却没有积极影响；(5)粮食补贴、农资价格、农产品价格和劳动力价格对不同农户生产、消费和非农劳动的影响不同,这些政策市场环境变化对以农业收入为主、非农劳动机会较少的中西部地区农户家庭影响相对较大。
第五,主要结论与政策启示。在归纳本文主要研究结论之基础上,以提高农业生产收益、改善农户生活消费水平、增加农民非农劳动机会为目标,从增强小农户对政策市场环境的适应能力、提高粮食补贴力度并扩大补贴范围、稳定农资及农产品价格、完善劳动力市场体系等方面提出了本文的政策启示。
本文的创新之处可能在于：从研究视角来看,本文突破了现有文献主要以单独的视角研究农户农业生产、消费或劳动就业问题的局限性,而将三者视为一个整体,来研究政策环境变化下的农户生产、消费与非农劳动互动关系；在研究方法上,本文充分考虑农户的经济基本特征,构建了不可分的中国农户模型,对不同地区和不同类型的代表性农户进行模拟分析,使研究结果更具现实性和可靠性；同时,本文建立的CAHM模型,通过模型数据和参数的更新,可以成为一种科学的微观农业政策分析工具；在研究成果上,本文基于CAHM模型研究得出有关农户生产、消费与劳动就业等方面的大量信息,将具有较高的科学性和实用价值,可以为政府制定有关农业政策提供前瞻性的决策依据。
Agricultural household (peasant family) is the basic unit of agricultural economic activities in our country. Its general characteristics, such as low commodity rate of agricultural products, high degree of concurrent occupation, a large proportion of non-farm income, etc., make Chinese agricultural household a complex economic subject which is a typical set of agricultural producer, non-farm labor (supplier) and consumer. The environment change of national macro economy and policy, especially the market change of agricultural products and labors will affect the agricultural production, non-farm labor supply, income and consumer demand of the agricultural household. Meanwhile, the agricultural household's decision on production, non-farm labor and consumption will also have a huge impact on macro economic development and even the implementation effect of government policies. Therefore, research on the reciprocal relationship among production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households from micro perspective has a very important practical significance to judge the trend of agricultural production, rural consumption as well as labor transfer.
Starting from agricultural household, based on new family economics, this study integrates production, consumption and non-farm labor issues of the agricultural household into an overall analytical framework, and constructs a Chinese agricultural household model ('CAHM'model) reflecting the basic economic characteristics of the Chinese agricultural household. On this basis, through the data of the field survey on482agricultural households from ten villages of nine cities in six provinces of Shanxi, Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi, Shandong, Zhejiang, representative agricultural households from different regions are used to build CAHM models respectively. Models are exploited to stimulate and analyze the effects of food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products, the price of labor on production, consumption and non-farm labor, as well as the interaction among the three above in the agricultural households, to reveal the coordinated growth mechanism of production, consumption and non-farm labor of the agricultural households. Accordingly, policy implications are proposed aiming at raising the income of the agricultural households to promote the agricultural production, increasing the chance of non-farm employment and improving the consumption level of the peasants. The main contents and conclusions contain the following five parts:
First, theoretical analysis framework is built for the research on production, consumption and non-labor of Chinese agricultural household. Based on the analysis of basic economic characteristic of Chinese agricultural household, Chinese agricultural household model is constructed which combines producers, consumers and workers together, according to the theory of agricultural household. And also the model structure, mathematical expression and solving method are analyzed in detail. All these provide the general idea for the following research.
Second, the economic status of sample households is analyzed comparatively and the genesis of their differences is studied empirically. Based on the descriptive statistical analysis of the sample households by the field research data, the econometric models are used to research the main factors that make the regional difference of production, consumption and non-farm labor in various agricultural households. These also provide the necessary parameters for empirically establishing the CAHM model for representative agricultural households from different regions. The results show that:(1) agricultural policy, regional economy, public services, infrastructure, resources and environment constitute the important external factors which influence the economic decisions of the agricultural households.(2) As to the sample households of the eastern China, agricultural production resource is limited and comparative advantage of grain is low; As to the sample households of the midwest, the feature of concurrent occupation which is "farming in the busy agricultural season and non-farm employment in the slack agricultural season" is prominent; There is in general a high proportion of food consumption and a lack of production expenditures in agricultural households from different regions and types.(3) The utility of agricultural household depends on income and leisure, and the leisure elasticity is greater than the income elasticity.(4) Agricultural households dominated by the non-farm income tend to transfer out of their farmland.(5) For the agricultural households, the prices of agricultural production means and agricultural products have the significant effects on the agricultural investment, while household income and consumer price have the significant effects on the structure and quantity of living consumption.
Third, the CAHM models of the representative agricultural household from different regions are constructed and studied empirically. Based on the general structure of CAHM model, six representative agricultural household are constructed empirical model respectively. The optimization results of the models show that:(1)
The production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households exists the obvious coordinated growth relationships.(2) There is a lager adjusting space for production, consumption and non-farm labor of agricultural households in the current policy environment.(3) The agricultural households endowed with small scale and single farming are increasingly turning their operation modes to concurrent occupation and diversification, in order to improve household income. And the growth rate of non-food consumption is significantly higher than that of food consumption in the agricultural households.
Fourth, the production, consumption and non-farm labor are studied by simulation, optimization under different scenarios. This dissertation takes food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products and the price of labor as four different scenarios, uses the CAHM model of each representative agricultural household for simulation and optimization analysis. It is reflected that:(1) There are little effects of15%-25%raises of the food subsidies on production and income increase of small agricultural households, due to that the opportunity cost of farm labor is higher than the food production income.(2) If the prices of major agricultural production mean increases10%or20%, the food production of the agricultural household will decline over10%, while some breeds of livestock are supplied abnormally. The non-farm labor will increase by at least20%, which leads to the source structure change of food demand in agricultural households.(3) When the price of major grain and livestock products increase10%and30%respectively, the grain production structure is essentially the same and the total grain production increases8%, while livestock production structure changes considerably, part of the livestock breeding scale even double the size. In addition to increasing the self-sufficient consumption of subsistence to save expenses, the average labor supply of the agricultural households increases more than2%, which increases over10%of the family income to ease the incremental pressure.(4) The15%-20%growths of labor wages leads to12%reduction of farm labor and22%increase of non-farm labor in the agricultural household. The improvement of income makes the living consumption expenditure increase by4%, but does not indicate positive effects on agricultural inputs.(5) There are different influences of food subsidies, the prices of agricultural production means, the price of agricultural products and the price of labor on production, consumption and non-farm labor of various agricultural households. The change of these policy and market environment has greatly affects the midwest agricultural households with income mainly from agriculture and with less non-farm opportunities.
Fifth, it is the main conclusions and policy implications. Based on summarizing the main conclusions of this study, policy implications are proposed from the aspects that enhance the ability of small agricultural household to adapt to the policy-market environment, increase food subsidies and expand subsidies range, stable the price of agricultural means and products, and improve the system of labor market, etc, in order to raise the income of agricultural production, improve the consumption level of the agricultural households, and increase the non-farm employment chance of peasants.
The innovation of this dissertation lies in that: From a theoretical perspective, it breaks through the limitations of previous study on the agricultural household issue of production, consumption or employment separately, and takes these three as a whole to explore the interaction among production, consumption, and non-farm labor of the agricultural household. In the aspect of research method, the non-separate model CAHM is built, considering the basic economic characteristics of Chinese agricultural households. Updated by the data and parameters, CAHM will become a microscopic analysis tool for agricultural policy. As to the research results, a large number of micro-quantitative information about production, consumption and employment of the agricultural households concluded from CAHM model studies with high scientific and practical value, will provide forward-looking decision basis for making agricultural policy of the government.
引文
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