秦岭南北地区环境脆弱化与脆弱度比较研究
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摘要
环境脆弱性研究是全球环境变化研究的核心领域之一。目前国内外对环境脆弱性变化的“程度与过程”的研究很少，国内外的研究较多地依赖于概念定义，实证研究较少。国内虽有一些衡量环境脆弱度的方法，尚无准确又公认的脆弱度评价模型可资借鉴。所以环境脆弱性变化的程度与过程的模型模拟还有待于从不同时空尺度上进一步深化。
全球气候系统正在发生变化，作为对气候变化的响应，许多自然生态系统将可能发生变化，问题是在多大程度上，在什么地方，是正的或负的影响；这种影响会有什么样的发展趋势?如何瞄准评价区域，准确地定量评价这种影响的程度以及变化趋势?这些都是在生态环境脆弱性研究中急需解决的问题。
本文首先阐明了环境脆弱度与脆弱化研究的背景，全面总结了脆弱度定量、半定量评价研究方法。在此基础上，选用二级模糊综合评判法以及分值权重累加法建立脆弱度评价模型，并提出以脆弱度时间发展斜率变化率指数建立脆弱化评价模型。以关中、陕南两地区的气象资料与水文资料为基础，应用地理信息系统空间分析方法并结合数理统计方法，以关中和陕南两地区为研究对象，对秦岭南北地区环境脆弱度与脆弱化时空分布规律进行了深入地分析。
通过分析，丈章得出了以下一些有意义的结论：
1．秦岭是亚洲大陆东部海拔最高的山地，在全球环境变化中具有重要意义。以其南北两侧的关中地区与陕南地区作为研究对象，进行环境脆弱度与脆弱化的比较研究，具有典型性，是区域环境变化对全球变化响应研究领域中一个重要组成部分。
2．近五十年来关中地区与陕南地区环境脆弱度均表现出加强趋势，关中地区脆弱度由50年代的0.3增加到90年代的0.58，陕南地区脆弱度由50年代的0.24上升到90年代的0.47；脆弱度在空间分布上都表现出明显的地理意义。五十年来关中地区脆弱性程度总体上高于陕南地区，尤其是脆弱度年代际变幅增长速度显著快于陕南地区。关中地区的脆弱度区域分布较陕南地区复杂，这种分布特点一方面可以反映出地形地貌条件差异，同时也可以反映出关中地区的环境更强烈地受到“人化”作用的干扰。
3．近五十年来两地区各季环境脆弱度变化趋势在一定程度上表现出相似性和差异性特征。两地区冬季与春季脆弱度增强趋势尤为显著。关中、陕南两地秋季
和夏季脆弱度年代际变幅也表现出增大趋势；冬季关中地区脆弱度年代际变幅有
增大趋势，陕南则略有下降趋势；春季关中地区脆弱度年代际变幅呈现减小趋势，
而陕南地区则有增大趋势。
4．两地脆弱度与脆弱化空间分布具有一定差异性。关中地区和陕南地区脆弱
度空间分布南北差异显著，东西差异不明显；两地区脆弱化空间分布特征表现为
在南北差异之中，又显示出了东西差异。
5．关中地区环境脆弱化指数大于陕南地区，关中地区脆弱化指数为0刀68，陕
南地区脆弱化指数为0刀56。冬季两地的脆弱化程度十分接近，并且两地冬季的脆
弱化程度最为严重。夏季和春季两地的脆弱化程度相差较大，春季和夏季关中地
区的脆弱化程度比陕南地区严重得多。
6．分界作用表现为：静态分界作用减弱，动态分界作用显著。近50年来，秦
岭南北地区环境脆弱度总体上虽都呈增长趋势，由于关中地区年代际增长幅度远
大于陕南地区，困而秦岭南北地区的环境有“两极分化”的趋势。困此；秦岭作
为气候分界线，其静态作用减弱，动态作用显著。
7．本文初步讨论了秦岭南北地区环境脆弱变化响应的现象，对脆弱变化的成
因还没有涉及，还有待于进一步研究。
创新点：
1．脆弱度的定量评价模型模拟研究
2．脆弱化过程的定量化研究
The study on environmental vulnerability is one of the key fields of the study on global environment change. To this day, there has been so few studies on Degree and Process of environmental vulnerability. Studies both at home and abroad pay much more attentions to conceptual definition, while case studies are seldom involved. Although there are some means to measure vulnerable degree of environment, no model, as yet, has been established that is of accuracy and can be generally accepted. As a result, models and simulations of Degree and Process of environmental vulnerability remain to be studied further from different space-time scales.
The climate system is changing across the globe. In response to climate change, many environmental systems are also likely to change. The question remains: how much, where, and whether the effect would be positive or negative. How do we aim at evaluated areas so as to assess the degree and the trend of the effect quantitatively or semi-quantitatively? The above-mentioned problems are pressing in the study on environmental vulnerability.
This paper elaborates the background of the study on vulnerabilization and vulnerable degree of environment, and then sums up the methods of assessing vulnerable degree of environment quantitatively or semi-quantitatively. Two models are put forward to assess vulnerable degree of environment. One is the method of secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the other is the method of weighting score. Model of assessing vulnerabilization is established by rate of change of the time-developing slope of vulnerable degree. This paper takes the Southern Shaanxi and the Central Shaanxi Plain as the object of the study. leased on the data from hydroclimatological departments, this paper makes further analysis on the space-time structure of vulnerabilization and vulnerable degree of environment over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains by usmg the methods of geographical-information-system spatial analysis and mathematical statistics.
By analysis, this paper makes some important conclusions. In east Asia Qinling is the highest
mountains concerning altitude and of great importance in environmental change worldwide. It is of typicality to single out the Southern Shaanxi and the Central Shaanxi Plain, which lie separately in the south and the north to Qinling, as the object of this study so as to make a comparison between the vulnerable degree of environment. This paper is an important part of the study of the response of regional environment change to globe change. The vulnerable degree of environment over the two regions has been increasing in recent 50 years. It shows an outstanding geographical implication in terms of spatial distribution. The Central Shaanxi Plain is more vulnerable than the Southern Shaanxi, in general. In particular, the decadal amplitude of vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is bigger than that over the South. The spatial distribution of vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is more complicated. This spatial pattern of vulnerable regions reflects different characteristics of the landforms between the two regions. Forthermore, it also indicates that the environment over the Plain tends to be more strongly affected by the humanized activities. The dividing function is as follows. The static dividing function decreases and the dynamic dividing function seems to be striking. In recent 50 years, there exists a increasing trend of the vulnerable degree of environment over the two regions. Since the decadal amplitude of the vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is bigger than that over the South, the environment over the two regions has a tendency of bipolar differentiation. This paper analyses the phenomena of environmental vulnerability change over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains. The causes of the change remains to be made a further study.
全球气候系统正在发生变化，作为对气候变化的响应，许多自然生态系统将可能发生变化，问题是在多大程度上，在什么地方，是正的或负的影响；这种影响会有什么样的发展趋势?如何瞄准评价区域，准确地定量评价这种影响的程度以及变化趋势?这些都是在生态环境脆弱性研究中急需解决的问题。
本文首先阐明了环境脆弱度与脆弱化研究的背景，全面总结了脆弱度定量、半定量评价研究方法。在此基础上，选用二级模糊综合评判法以及分值权重累加法建立脆弱度评价模型，并提出以脆弱度时间发展斜率变化率指数建立脆弱化评价模型。以关中、陕南两地区的气象资料与水文资料为基础，应用地理信息系统空间分析方法并结合数理统计方法，以关中和陕南两地区为研究对象，对秦岭南北地区环境脆弱度与脆弱化时空分布规律进行了深入地分析。
通过分析，丈章得出了以下一些有意义的结论：
1．秦岭是亚洲大陆东部海拔最高的山地，在全球环境变化中具有重要意义。以其南北两侧的关中地区与陕南地区作为研究对象，进行环境脆弱度与脆弱化的比较研究，具有典型性，是区域环境变化对全球变化响应研究领域中一个重要组成部分。
2．近五十年来关中地区与陕南地区环境脆弱度均表现出加强趋势，关中地区脆弱度由50年代的0.3增加到90年代的0.58，陕南地区脆弱度由50年代的0.24上升到90年代的0.47；脆弱度在空间分布上都表现出明显的地理意义。五十年来关中地区脆弱性程度总体上高于陕南地区，尤其是脆弱度年代际变幅增长速度显著快于陕南地区。关中地区的脆弱度区域分布较陕南地区复杂，这种分布特点一方面可以反映出地形地貌条件差异，同时也可以反映出关中地区的环境更强烈地受到“人化”作用的干扰。
3．近五十年来两地区各季环境脆弱度变化趋势在一定程度上表现出相似性和差异性特征。两地区冬季与春季脆弱度增强趋势尤为显著。关中、陕南两地秋季
和夏季脆弱度年代际变幅也表现出增大趋势；冬季关中地区脆弱度年代际变幅有
增大趋势，陕南则略有下降趋势；春季关中地区脆弱度年代际变幅呈现减小趋势，
而陕南地区则有增大趋势。
4．两地脆弱度与脆弱化空间分布具有一定差异性。关中地区和陕南地区脆弱
度空间分布南北差异显著，东西差异不明显；两地区脆弱化空间分布特征表现为
在南北差异之中，又显示出了东西差异。
5．关中地区环境脆弱化指数大于陕南地区，关中地区脆弱化指数为0刀68，陕
南地区脆弱化指数为0刀56。冬季两地的脆弱化程度十分接近，并且两地冬季的脆
弱化程度最为严重。夏季和春季两地的脆弱化程度相差较大，春季和夏季关中地
区的脆弱化程度比陕南地区严重得多。
6．分界作用表现为：静态分界作用减弱，动态分界作用显著。近50年来，秦
岭南北地区环境脆弱度总体上虽都呈增长趋势，由于关中地区年代际增长幅度远
大于陕南地区，困而秦岭南北地区的环境有“两极分化”的趋势。困此；秦岭作
为气候分界线，其静态作用减弱，动态作用显著。
7．本文初步讨论了秦岭南北地区环境脆弱变化响应的现象，对脆弱变化的成
因还没有涉及，还有待于进一步研究。
创新点：
1．脆弱度的定量评价模型模拟研究
2．脆弱化过程的定量化研究
The study on environmental vulnerability is one of the key fields of the study on global environment change. To this day, there has been so few studies on Degree and Process of environmental vulnerability. Studies both at home and abroad pay much more attentions to conceptual definition, while case studies are seldom involved. Although there are some means to measure vulnerable degree of environment, no model, as yet, has been established that is of accuracy and can be generally accepted. As a result, models and simulations of Degree and Process of environmental vulnerability remain to be studied further from different space-time scales.
The climate system is changing across the globe. In response to climate change, many environmental systems are also likely to change. The question remains: how much, where, and whether the effect would be positive or negative. How do we aim at evaluated areas so as to assess the degree and the trend of the effect quantitatively or semi-quantitatively? The above-mentioned problems are pressing in the study on environmental vulnerability.
This paper elaborates the background of the study on vulnerabilization and vulnerable degree of environment, and then sums up the methods of assessing vulnerable degree of environment quantitatively or semi-quantitatively. Two models are put forward to assess vulnerable degree of environment. One is the method of secondary fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the other is the method of weighting score. Model of assessing vulnerabilization is established by rate of change of the time-developing slope of vulnerable degree. This paper takes the Southern Shaanxi and the Central Shaanxi Plain as the object of the study. leased on the data from hydroclimatological departments, this paper makes further analysis on the space-time structure of vulnerabilization and vulnerable degree of environment over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains by usmg the methods of geographical-information-system spatial analysis and mathematical statistics.
By analysis, this paper makes some important conclusions. In east Asia Qinling is the highest
mountains concerning altitude and of great importance in environmental change worldwide. It is of typicality to single out the Southern Shaanxi and the Central Shaanxi Plain, which lie separately in the south and the north to Qinling, as the object of this study so as to make a comparison between the vulnerable degree of environment. This paper is an important part of the study of the response of regional environment change to globe change. The vulnerable degree of environment over the two regions has been increasing in recent 50 years. It shows an outstanding geographical implication in terms of spatial distribution. The Central Shaanxi Plain is more vulnerable than the Southern Shaanxi, in general. In particular, the decadal amplitude of vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is bigger than that over the South. The spatial distribution of vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is more complicated. This spatial pattern of vulnerable regions reflects different characteristics of the landforms between the two regions. Forthermore, it also indicates that the environment over the Plain tends to be more strongly affected by the humanized activities. The dividing function is as follows. The static dividing function decreases and the dynamic dividing function seems to be striking. In recent 50 years, there exists a increasing trend of the vulnerable degree of environment over the two regions. Since the decadal amplitude of the vulnerable degree of environment over the Plain is bigger than that over the South, the environment over the two regions has a tendency of bipolar differentiation. This paper analyses the phenomena of environmental vulnerability change over northern and southern to Qinling Mountains. The causes of the change remains to be made a further study.
引文
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