合作技术创新项目评价与风险管理研究
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摘要
随着市场竞争日趋激烈,企业需通过技术创新来提高自身的竞争力。由于单个企业在资金、技术、人才以及设备等方面,有其局限性,难以实现技术创新,而合作技术创新在一定程度上,能降低企业对自身的依赖性,通过与其他企业合作,可促进企业自身发展,同时也降低了创新风险。合作技术创新被实践证明为一种有效提高企业核心竞争力的重要途径,被越来越多的企业所接受。然而,合作技术创新也存在不少风险,大量实例研究表明,约有50%的合作技术创新结果被成员企业认为是不满意或失败的。因此,立足于当前合作技术创新的应用背景,开展该领域内的研究具有重要意义。
目前,有文献分别对技术创新与风险管理理论进行了研究,但缺乏系统性,尚未形成一定的理论体系。鉴于这些理论难以有效指导合作技术创新实践活动,故有必要借助于现有技术创新、项目评价以及风险管理等理论对合作技术创新进行研究。通过对合作技术创新过程的分析可知,其研究主要应体现在两个方面:一方面,如何从创新技术、创新能力、合作能力和创新风险等方面对合作技术创新项目进行综合评价,为企业选择合适的合作技术创新项目提供决策依据,以降低企业合作技术创新的盲目性;另一方面,如何针对合作技术创新项目过程中的风险进行管理,提出具有操作性强的数量分析方法,为企业提供有效的风险管理工具和方法,帮助企业降低合作技术创新项目风险。
为此,论文以合作技术创新项目评价和创新过程中的项目风险管理为重点研究对象,通过分析和梳理国内外有关合作技术创新项目评价和风险管理的研究成果,结合合作技术创新的特点,旨在建立合作技术创新指标体系的优化算法,确定项目评价的指标体系,提出创新项目的评价方法;对合作技术创新风险进行深入分析,以构建风险评估方法和风险预警模型,给出风险处理方法;并以湖南有色下属企业的合作技术创新为研究对象进行实证分析。论文的主要工作和创新如下。
(1)通过分析和归纳合作技术创新的相关概念、特征和模式,以及关于粗糙集理论的项目评价指标优化、项目评价理论和风险管理理论,理清了合作技术创新的有关概念、合作技术创新项目评价与风险管理的理论脉络,提出了合作技术创新的几种合作模式,为合作技术创新项目评价与风险管理的研究提供了理论支撑和实际运作方向。
(2)提出了合作技术创新项目评价指标体系的优化方法,构建了项目评价指标体系。针对合作技术创新项目的特点与评价指标体系适用性差的现状,通过实地访谈和问卷调查,收集了多个行业不同层次的受访者对指标的评价意见,利用模糊聚类和粗糙集理论,提出合作技术创新项目评价指标体系的优化方法,并构建合作技术创新项目评价的指标体系。
(3)提出了合作技术创新项目的两阶段评价方法,即粗评价与精评价方法。根据合作技术创新项目的特点与实际情况,在项目评价过程中,由于决策者给出的评价一般是模糊数,因此,合作技术创新项目评价采用区间数评价。在粗评价阶段,提出了基于区间数的模糊聚类方法对合作技术创新项目进行粗选,有利于创新企业从大量备选项目中,筛选出一批具有创新价值的项目;在精评价阶段,提出了随机模拟方法对筛选出的合作技术创新项目进行更深入的评价和比较,以提高企业合作技术创新项目的成功率。
(4)针对合作技术创新项目的特点,研究了合作技术创新项目风险的识别方法,构建了合作技术创新项目风险评估的指标体系。根据合作技术创新项目风险评价的不确定性与模糊性,提出了基于二元语义的证据推理风险评估方法和基于二元语义的人工神经网络风险预警模型。根据风险评估和风险预警结果,结合决策条件,给出了定量与定性相结合的风险处理方法。这些理论与方法为企业管理与控制合作技术创新项目风险,提供了辅助手段和有益参考。
(5)采用理论与实践相结合的方法对湖南有色的合作技术创新项目进行了实证分析。以湖南有色下属子公司提出的合作技术创新项目为研究对象,从理论和实践两个方面,通过对湖南有色合作技术创新项目评价、风险管理理论与方法的论证,结果表明本文提出的合作技术创新项目评价指标体系、评价方法、风险识别、风险评估、风险预警及风险处理策略是正确和有效的。
The cooperative technological innovation is that the enterprises cooperate with each other, sharing of resources, having complementary advantages and conducting a joint technical innovation, to enhance their core competitiveness. In recent years, with the increasingly fierce international competition, the enterprise need to sharpen their core competitive ability by the technological innovation , as individual enterprise is difficult to achieve innovation with the limitations in funds, echnology, talent and equipment, but the enterprise is able to develop, reducing dependence on itself and lowing the innovation risk to a certain extent, through the cooperate technological innovation with other enterprises. Therefore, the enterprise cooperative technological innovation has become an important form of technological innovation.
The cooperative technological innovation is proved to be an important way to increase the competitiveness of enterprises effectively in practice, also is a strong driving force in development of scientific technological and in the growth of economic, so it is accepted by the enterprise more and more.However, There are also many risks with technological innovation cooperation, a large number of case studies show that about 50% result of innovative cooperation is considered to be dissatisfied or fail by the member enterprise.It is easy to cause innovation risk, that the asymmetric information of the enterprises, the uncertainty and complexity of innovation. So the study on the risk of cooperation technology innovation is also paid attention to by many scholars increasingly. At present, most of the literature mainly is concentrated on the theory of cooperative technological innovation and the research of risk early warning, the study on the entire proceeding of technological innovation is less, and the direction to practice is lack for the cooperative technological innovation. This paper attempt to study the entire process of cooperative technological innovation, propose some workable quantitative analysis methods and treatment measures with the characteristic of enterprise cooperative technological innovation, and carry on the empirical analysis about the cooperation innovation among the subordinate enterprise of Hunan Nonferrous Group.
This paper focuses on the project evaluation in selection process and the risk management of the cooperative technological innovation. Project evaluation is the basis step for the selection of projects, also is an important step of cooperative technological innovation.The risk management is an important means to obtain the success of the cooperative technological innovation project. The key ideas and contributions of this thesis are briefly summarized as follows:
(1) On analysising and sorting out the related literature of the cooperative technological innovation > the cooperative technological innovation project-evaluation and the cooperative technological innovation risk management, the relevant concepts of the cooperative technological innovation is cleared up, the model of the cooperative technological innovation is redefined, the bas theory is provided for the cooperative technological innovation project-evaluation and risk management.
(2) The article creates the index system of assessment for cooperative technological innovation project with questionnaire and interview in several enterprise.In view of the characteristic of cooperative technological innovation project and Lacks of serviceability of assessment indicator system, the index system of assessment and optimizes methods for index system have been established in the advice of many participant from different profession and different specialty, using the rough set theory.
(3)The article studies the project evaluation methods of the cooperative technological innovation. According to cooperative technological innovation project characteristic and actual situation, in the process of project evaluation, that the appraisal given by the policy-maker and the expert is usually a fuzzy number, so interval number fuzzy clustering method is proposed as the first step to appraisal cooperative technological innovation project, it is advantageous for the enterprises to select some projects with investment value from the large number of project with technical problems.And then the random simulation is used for the further step to appraisal cooperative technological innovation project, to enhance the probability of success of the cooperative technological innovation projects.
(4) The article focuses on the risk management of the cooperative technological innovation project. First, in view of cooperation innovation project characteristic, the risk recognition methods has been studied, and the risk indicator system for the cooperative technological innovation has been constructed.Then, according to the uncertainty and fuzziness of the risk assessment for the cooperation innovation, the two-tuple appraisal method has been set up, which uses the ordered weighted averaging(OWA) to appraise the risk of the cooperative technological innovation project, and the risk early warning model with the evidence inference and the artificial neural networks algorithm has been proposed, which can provides the reference and the auxiliary decision-making for the policy-maker to guard and manage the risk of the enterprise.
(5) The method with the theory and the practice is used to carry on the empirical analysis on the cooperation innovation among the Hunan Nonferrous Group.Taking the cooperative technological innovation project brought forward by Corp. interior enterprise as object for study, the article checks the calculation of the appraisal analysis, the risk recognition and the risk early warning with the cooperation innovation project of the Hunan Nonferrous Group, from the theoretical and practical aspects, demonstrating that the evaluation index system, evaluation methods, risk identification, risk assessment, risk early warning and risk control strategy of the cooperative technological innovation project being submitted of the previous article is correct and effective.
目前,有文献分别对技术创新与风险管理理论进行了研究,但缺乏系统性,尚未形成一定的理论体系。鉴于这些理论难以有效指导合作技术创新实践活动,故有必要借助于现有技术创新、项目评价以及风险管理等理论对合作技术创新进行研究。通过对合作技术创新过程的分析可知,其研究主要应体现在两个方面:一方面,如何从创新技术、创新能力、合作能力和创新风险等方面对合作技术创新项目进行综合评价,为企业选择合适的合作技术创新项目提供决策依据,以降低企业合作技术创新的盲目性;另一方面,如何针对合作技术创新项目过程中的风险进行管理,提出具有操作性强的数量分析方法,为企业提供有效的风险管理工具和方法,帮助企业降低合作技术创新项目风险。
为此,论文以合作技术创新项目评价和创新过程中的项目风险管理为重点研究对象,通过分析和梳理国内外有关合作技术创新项目评价和风险管理的研究成果,结合合作技术创新的特点,旨在建立合作技术创新指标体系的优化算法,确定项目评价的指标体系,提出创新项目的评价方法;对合作技术创新风险进行深入分析,以构建风险评估方法和风险预警模型,给出风险处理方法;并以湖南有色下属企业的合作技术创新为研究对象进行实证分析。论文的主要工作和创新如下。
(1)通过分析和归纳合作技术创新的相关概念、特征和模式,以及关于粗糙集理论的项目评价指标优化、项目评价理论和风险管理理论,理清了合作技术创新的有关概念、合作技术创新项目评价与风险管理的理论脉络,提出了合作技术创新的几种合作模式,为合作技术创新项目评价与风险管理的研究提供了理论支撑和实际运作方向。
(2)提出了合作技术创新项目评价指标体系的优化方法,构建了项目评价指标体系。针对合作技术创新项目的特点与评价指标体系适用性差的现状,通过实地访谈和问卷调查,收集了多个行业不同层次的受访者对指标的评价意见,利用模糊聚类和粗糙集理论,提出合作技术创新项目评价指标体系的优化方法,并构建合作技术创新项目评价的指标体系。
(3)提出了合作技术创新项目的两阶段评价方法,即粗评价与精评价方法。根据合作技术创新项目的特点与实际情况,在项目评价过程中,由于决策者给出的评价一般是模糊数,因此,合作技术创新项目评价采用区间数评价。在粗评价阶段,提出了基于区间数的模糊聚类方法对合作技术创新项目进行粗选,有利于创新企业从大量备选项目中,筛选出一批具有创新价值的项目;在精评价阶段,提出了随机模拟方法对筛选出的合作技术创新项目进行更深入的评价和比较,以提高企业合作技术创新项目的成功率。
(4)针对合作技术创新项目的特点,研究了合作技术创新项目风险的识别方法,构建了合作技术创新项目风险评估的指标体系。根据合作技术创新项目风险评价的不确定性与模糊性,提出了基于二元语义的证据推理风险评估方法和基于二元语义的人工神经网络风险预警模型。根据风险评估和风险预警结果,结合决策条件,给出了定量与定性相结合的风险处理方法。这些理论与方法为企业管理与控制合作技术创新项目风险,提供了辅助手段和有益参考。
(5)采用理论与实践相结合的方法对湖南有色的合作技术创新项目进行了实证分析。以湖南有色下属子公司提出的合作技术创新项目为研究对象,从理论和实践两个方面,通过对湖南有色合作技术创新项目评价、风险管理理论与方法的论证,结果表明本文提出的合作技术创新项目评价指标体系、评价方法、风险识别、风险评估、风险预警及风险处理策略是正确和有效的。
The cooperative technological innovation is that the enterprises cooperate with each other, sharing of resources, having complementary advantages and conducting a joint technical innovation, to enhance their core competitiveness. In recent years, with the increasingly fierce international competition, the enterprise need to sharpen their core competitive ability by the technological innovation , as individual enterprise is difficult to achieve innovation with the limitations in funds, echnology, talent and equipment, but the enterprise is able to develop, reducing dependence on itself and lowing the innovation risk to a certain extent, through the cooperate technological innovation with other enterprises. Therefore, the enterprise cooperative technological innovation has become an important form of technological innovation.
The cooperative technological innovation is proved to be an important way to increase the competitiveness of enterprises effectively in practice, also is a strong driving force in development of scientific technological and in the growth of economic, so it is accepted by the enterprise more and more.However, There are also many risks with technological innovation cooperation, a large number of case studies show that about 50% result of innovative cooperation is considered to be dissatisfied or fail by the member enterprise.It is easy to cause innovation risk, that the asymmetric information of the enterprises, the uncertainty and complexity of innovation. So the study on the risk of cooperation technology innovation is also paid attention to by many scholars increasingly. At present, most of the literature mainly is concentrated on the theory of cooperative technological innovation and the research of risk early warning, the study on the entire proceeding of technological innovation is less, and the direction to practice is lack for the cooperative technological innovation. This paper attempt to study the entire process of cooperative technological innovation, propose some workable quantitative analysis methods and treatment measures with the characteristic of enterprise cooperative technological innovation, and carry on the empirical analysis about the cooperation innovation among the subordinate enterprise of Hunan Nonferrous Group.
This paper focuses on the project evaluation in selection process and the risk management of the cooperative technological innovation. Project evaluation is the basis step for the selection of projects, also is an important step of cooperative technological innovation.The risk management is an important means to obtain the success of the cooperative technological innovation project. The key ideas and contributions of this thesis are briefly summarized as follows:
(1) On analysising and sorting out the related literature of the cooperative technological innovation > the cooperative technological innovation project-evaluation and the cooperative technological innovation risk management, the relevant concepts of the cooperative technological innovation is cleared up, the model of the cooperative technological innovation is redefined, the bas theory is provided for the cooperative technological innovation project-evaluation and risk management.
(2) The article creates the index system of assessment for cooperative technological innovation project with questionnaire and interview in several enterprise.In view of the characteristic of cooperative technological innovation project and Lacks of serviceability of assessment indicator system, the index system of assessment and optimizes methods for index system have been established in the advice of many participant from different profession and different specialty, using the rough set theory.
(3)The article studies the project evaluation methods of the cooperative technological innovation. According to cooperative technological innovation project characteristic and actual situation, in the process of project evaluation, that the appraisal given by the policy-maker and the expert is usually a fuzzy number, so interval number fuzzy clustering method is proposed as the first step to appraisal cooperative technological innovation project, it is advantageous for the enterprises to select some projects with investment value from the large number of project with technical problems.And then the random simulation is used for the further step to appraisal cooperative technological innovation project, to enhance the probability of success of the cooperative technological innovation projects.
(4) The article focuses on the risk management of the cooperative technological innovation project. First, in view of cooperation innovation project characteristic, the risk recognition methods has been studied, and the risk indicator system for the cooperative technological innovation has been constructed.Then, according to the uncertainty and fuzziness of the risk assessment for the cooperation innovation, the two-tuple appraisal method has been set up, which uses the ordered weighted averaging(OWA) to appraise the risk of the cooperative technological innovation project, and the risk early warning model with the evidence inference and the artificial neural networks algorithm has been proposed, which can provides the reference and the auxiliary decision-making for the policy-maker to guard and manage the risk of the enterprise.
(5) The method with the theory and the practice is used to carry on the empirical analysis on the cooperation innovation among the Hunan Nonferrous Group.Taking the cooperative technological innovation project brought forward by Corp. interior enterprise as object for study, the article checks the calculation of the appraisal analysis, the risk recognition and the risk early warning with the cooperation innovation project of the Hunan Nonferrous Group, from the theoretical and practical aspects, demonstrating that the evaluation index system, evaluation methods, risk identification, risk assessment, risk early warning and risk control strategy of the cooperative technological innovation project being submitted of the previous article is correct and effective.
引文
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