中国经济增长质量研究
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摘要
经济增长包含两个方面,一个是经济增长数量,另一个是经济增长质量。数量反映经济增长的速度,质量反映经济增长的优劣程度或品质属性。经济增长质量的内涵包括六个方面即有效性、稳定性、协调性、分享性、创新性、持续性。
有效性指经济增长中要素的投入产出效率,稳定性指经济增长的波动幅度及对潜在产出的偏离程度,协调性指经济增长中经济结构的协调程度,分享性指国民收入的分享状况,创新性指技术创新和制度创新在经济增长中的作用,持续性指资源与环境的承载经济长期增长的能力。根据经济增长质量的内涵及相关衡量指标,本文对中国经济增长质量从上述六个方面进行了较为详尽地分析。
本文从全要素生产率、宏观投资效率与劳动生产率三个方面分析了中国经济增长的有效性。与发达国家相比,中国的全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献不高;根据增量资本产出比,我国宏观投资效率偏低;中国的劳动生产率非常低下。因此,从经济增长率的有效性的角度看,中国的经济增长的质量不高。改革开放后中国经济增长波动幅度趋小,原因在于市场机制逐渐取代了传统的计划经济体制以及中国政府宏观调控水平的提高,从而使得平均增长率显著提高。另外,本文从实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离的角度衡量了增长的稳定性。数据表明自1996年以来中国经济增长的稳定性明显提高。
本文从需求结构和产业结构两方面分析了中国经济增长的协调性。中国的需求结构存在的主要问题是:投资率偏高和消费率偏低;国内需求偏低和出口需求偏高。这样的需求结构提高了中国经济增长的成本。中国产业结构的变化有符合一般趋势的方面,但我国的产业结构相对国际标准模式存在比较严重的偏离,这样的产业结构降低了中国经济增长的效率。本文对中国经济增长分享性的分析表明:2000年以来,国民收入明显向企业和政府倾斜,我国居民收入在国民收入中的比重不断下降。国民收入分配格局中政府收入份额的提高意味着宏观税负的提高,而实证分析表明我国使经济增长率最大化的宏观税负约为20%。我国改革开放以来,与经济高速增长相随的是日益严重的收入分配差距扩大,收入分配差距的扩大制约了消费需求的增加,而消费需求不足又对经济增长形成约束。因此,从经济增长分享性的角度看,中国经济增长质量趋于下降。
中国的技术创新水平不高。而实证分析表明:中国的技术进步主要来源于国内R&D投入和通过FDI渠道发生的国际技术外溢,进口贸易对我国的技术进步没有明显的促进作用。因此,加大R&D投入就成为必然的选择。改革开放来中国经济增长的最大动力来自于制度创新。由于中国的制度创新已达到一定阶段,制度创新的效率递增趋势已经减缓,我们必须加强对技术创新的重视程度,使技术创新和制度创新成为中国经济持续高速增长的动力。本文对经济增长的持续性的分析表明:我国经济高速增长带来的资源浪费和环境破坏已经到了十分严重的程度,环境污染导致我国经济损失呈不断上升的态势。考虑到中国的人均资源量远低于世界平均水平,传统的数量型的经济增长方式已经难以为继。
本文对中国经济增长质量的综合评价显示:经济增长质量改善的速度远不及数量扩张的速度。即经济规模的迅速扩大并没有带来经济增长质量的提高。这证明了1978年以来中国经济增长是以数量扩张为主的数量型增长。文章的最后分析了中国经济增长质量不高的原因,并从稳定性、协调性、分享性、创新性、持续性五个方面提出了提高经济增长质量的对策。
Economic growth contains two aspects, one is economic growth quantity, the other is economic growth quality. Quantity reflects the speed of economic growth,quality reflects
the attribute of economic growth .The connotation of economic growth quality includes six aspects. They are efficiency、stability、coordination、distribution、innovation、durative. The efficiency means the output efficiency of economic growth. The stability means the fluctuation degree of economic growth and the deviation to potential output. The coordination means the rationality of economic structure. The distribution means the distribution of national income. The innovation means the function of technological innovation and system innovation. The durative means the ability of resources and environment sustaining economic growth. According to economic growth quality connotation and correlative index, this paper carries on a more exhaustive analysis to China’s economic growth quality from the above six aspects.
This paper analyzed the efficiency of China's economic growth from three aspects as total factor productivity, investment efficiency at macro-economic level and labor productivity. Compared with developed countries, total factor productivity’s contribution to economic growth is not high in China; we find that China's investment efficiency at macro-economic level is low based on incremental capital-output ratio; China's labor productivity is very low. Therefore, China's economic growth quality is not high from the point of view of the efficiency. The fluctuation of economic growth has become smaller since reform and open policy has been put in practice. The cause is the market mechanism substituted the control status of the tradition planned economic system gradually in the national economy; the government might promptly carry on the regulation to the demand according to the market’s supply-demand relation. Thus, average growth rate has been improved remarkably. In addition, the paper analysis the stability of growth based on actual growth rate deviation from potential growth rate. Data indicate that the stability of China's economic growth improved remarkably since 1996.
This paper analyzed the coordination of China’s economic growth from two aspects as demand structure and industrial structure. The main problems of demand structure lie in: investment rate is very high, consumption rate is very low; domestic demand is low, export demand is high. This kind of demand structure increased the cost of China's economic growth. The changes of China's industrial structure are in line with the general trend, but China's industrial structure deviated from international standards models seriously. This kind of industrial structure reduced the efficiency of China's economic growth. The analysis of distribution of China's economic growth showed that the national income have inclined to enterprise and government obviously, the proportion of inhabitant’s income in the national income has declined unceasingly since 2000. The proportion of government income increasing means the macro tax burden is increasing. The empirical analysis indicates that the optimal macro tax burden to maximize economic growth is about 20%. Since the economic reform and the opening-up of China, at the same of high-speed economic growth, polarization of the income gap is worsening. It restricted the consumption demand to increase, and consumption demand’s insufficient form the restraint to economic growth. In a word, China's economic growth quality tends to decline based on the distribution of economic growth.
China's technological innovation level is not high. The empirical study indicates that domestic R&D investment and technology spillovers of foreign country through FDI promote China’s technology progress significantly. And import does not promote China’s technology progress. Therefore, increasing R&D investment will become the inevitable choice. The biggest power of China’s economic growth comes from the system innovation since reform and open policy has been put in practice. Because China's system innovation had reached the certain stage, the efficiency of system innovation of increasing tendency already slowed down, we have to strengthen technology innovation, make technology innovation and the system innovation become the power of China’s constantly and high-speed economic growth. The analysis of the durative of economic growth showed that the resource waste and environmental disruption has already reached a very serious degree.The economic losses caused by the environmental pollution takes a trend of rising constantly in our country. Resources amount per capita in China is well below the average world level, the traditional quantity economic growth way was already difficult to sustain.
The comprehensive evaluation of China’s growth quality showed that the improvement of quality did not keep pace with the expansion of quantity. That is, the rapid expanding of economic scale didn’t bring the improvement of growth quality. This had proven the China’s economic growth can also be called the quantity economic growth since 1978.Finally this paper analyzed the cause of China’s economic growth quality, proposed the countermeasure of improving economic growth quality from five aspects as stability、innovation、coordination、distribution、durative.
有效性指经济增长中要素的投入产出效率,稳定性指经济增长的波动幅度及对潜在产出的偏离程度,协调性指经济增长中经济结构的协调程度,分享性指国民收入的分享状况,创新性指技术创新和制度创新在经济增长中的作用,持续性指资源与环境的承载经济长期增长的能力。根据经济增长质量的内涵及相关衡量指标,本文对中国经济增长质量从上述六个方面进行了较为详尽地分析。
本文从全要素生产率、宏观投资效率与劳动生产率三个方面分析了中国经济增长的有效性。与发达国家相比,中国的全要素生产率对经济增长的贡献不高;根据增量资本产出比,我国宏观投资效率偏低;中国的劳动生产率非常低下。因此,从经济增长率的有效性的角度看,中国的经济增长的质量不高。改革开放后中国经济增长波动幅度趋小,原因在于市场机制逐渐取代了传统的计划经济体制以及中国政府宏观调控水平的提高,从而使得平均增长率显著提高。另外,本文从实际增长率对潜在增长率的偏离的角度衡量了增长的稳定性。数据表明自1996年以来中国经济增长的稳定性明显提高。
本文从需求结构和产业结构两方面分析了中国经济增长的协调性。中国的需求结构存在的主要问题是:投资率偏高和消费率偏低;国内需求偏低和出口需求偏高。这样的需求结构提高了中国经济增长的成本。中国产业结构的变化有符合一般趋势的方面,但我国的产业结构相对国际标准模式存在比较严重的偏离,这样的产业结构降低了中国经济增长的效率。本文对中国经济增长分享性的分析表明:2000年以来,国民收入明显向企业和政府倾斜,我国居民收入在国民收入中的比重不断下降。国民收入分配格局中政府收入份额的提高意味着宏观税负的提高,而实证分析表明我国使经济增长率最大化的宏观税负约为20%。我国改革开放以来,与经济高速增长相随的是日益严重的收入分配差距扩大,收入分配差距的扩大制约了消费需求的增加,而消费需求不足又对经济增长形成约束。因此,从经济增长分享性的角度看,中国经济增长质量趋于下降。
中国的技术创新水平不高。而实证分析表明:中国的技术进步主要来源于国内R&D投入和通过FDI渠道发生的国际技术外溢,进口贸易对我国的技术进步没有明显的促进作用。因此,加大R&D投入就成为必然的选择。改革开放来中国经济增长的最大动力来自于制度创新。由于中国的制度创新已达到一定阶段,制度创新的效率递增趋势已经减缓,我们必须加强对技术创新的重视程度,使技术创新和制度创新成为中国经济持续高速增长的动力。本文对经济增长的持续性的分析表明:我国经济高速增长带来的资源浪费和环境破坏已经到了十分严重的程度,环境污染导致我国经济损失呈不断上升的态势。考虑到中国的人均资源量远低于世界平均水平,传统的数量型的经济增长方式已经难以为继。
本文对中国经济增长质量的综合评价显示:经济增长质量改善的速度远不及数量扩张的速度。即经济规模的迅速扩大并没有带来经济增长质量的提高。这证明了1978年以来中国经济增长是以数量扩张为主的数量型增长。文章的最后分析了中国经济增长质量不高的原因,并从稳定性、协调性、分享性、创新性、持续性五个方面提出了提高经济增长质量的对策。
Economic growth contains two aspects, one is economic growth quantity, the other is economic growth quality. Quantity reflects the speed of economic growth,quality reflects
the attribute of economic growth .The connotation of economic growth quality includes six aspects. They are efficiency、stability、coordination、distribution、innovation、durative. The efficiency means the output efficiency of economic growth. The stability means the fluctuation degree of economic growth and the deviation to potential output. The coordination means the rationality of economic structure. The distribution means the distribution of national income. The innovation means the function of technological innovation and system innovation. The durative means the ability of resources and environment sustaining economic growth. According to economic growth quality connotation and correlative index, this paper carries on a more exhaustive analysis to China’s economic growth quality from the above six aspects.
This paper analyzed the efficiency of China's economic growth from three aspects as total factor productivity, investment efficiency at macro-economic level and labor productivity. Compared with developed countries, total factor productivity’s contribution to economic growth is not high in China; we find that China's investment efficiency at macro-economic level is low based on incremental capital-output ratio; China's labor productivity is very low. Therefore, China's economic growth quality is not high from the point of view of the efficiency. The fluctuation of economic growth has become smaller since reform and open policy has been put in practice. The cause is the market mechanism substituted the control status of the tradition planned economic system gradually in the national economy; the government might promptly carry on the regulation to the demand according to the market’s supply-demand relation. Thus, average growth rate has been improved remarkably. In addition, the paper analysis the stability of growth based on actual growth rate deviation from potential growth rate. Data indicate that the stability of China's economic growth improved remarkably since 1996.
This paper analyzed the coordination of China’s economic growth from two aspects as demand structure and industrial structure. The main problems of demand structure lie in: investment rate is very high, consumption rate is very low; domestic demand is low, export demand is high. This kind of demand structure increased the cost of China's economic growth. The changes of China's industrial structure are in line with the general trend, but China's industrial structure deviated from international standards models seriously. This kind of industrial structure reduced the efficiency of China's economic growth. The analysis of distribution of China's economic growth showed that the national income have inclined to enterprise and government obviously, the proportion of inhabitant’s income in the national income has declined unceasingly since 2000. The proportion of government income increasing means the macro tax burden is increasing. The empirical analysis indicates that the optimal macro tax burden to maximize economic growth is about 20%. Since the economic reform and the opening-up of China, at the same of high-speed economic growth, polarization of the income gap is worsening. It restricted the consumption demand to increase, and consumption demand’s insufficient form the restraint to economic growth. In a word, China's economic growth quality tends to decline based on the distribution of economic growth.
China's technological innovation level is not high. The empirical study indicates that domestic R&D investment and technology spillovers of foreign country through FDI promote China’s technology progress significantly. And import does not promote China’s technology progress. Therefore, increasing R&D investment will become the inevitable choice. The biggest power of China’s economic growth comes from the system innovation since reform and open policy has been put in practice. Because China's system innovation had reached the certain stage, the efficiency of system innovation of increasing tendency already slowed down, we have to strengthen technology innovation, make technology innovation and the system innovation become the power of China’s constantly and high-speed economic growth. The analysis of the durative of economic growth showed that the resource waste and environmental disruption has already reached a very serious degree.The economic losses caused by the environmental pollution takes a trend of rising constantly in our country. Resources amount per capita in China is well below the average world level, the traditional quantity economic growth way was already difficult to sustain.
The comprehensive evaluation of China’s growth quality showed that the improvement of quality did not keep pace with the expansion of quantity. That is, the rapid expanding of economic scale didn’t bring the improvement of growth quality. This had proven the China’s economic growth can also be called the quantity economic growth since 1978.Finally this paper analyzed the cause of China’s economic growth quality, proposed the countermeasure of improving economic growth quality from five aspects as stability、innovation、coordination、distribution、durative.
引文
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