基于系统动力学的群体情绪传播机制与影响因素研究
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摘要
随着经济发展和社会转型的加速,社会矛盾日渐突出,群体性事件备受社会关注,引发了大量相关研究,重点集中于群体规模、信息传播与反馈、事件环境产生机制等因素,也有研究涉及情绪的作用,但并未对个体情绪在群体性事件中如何传播并转化为广泛的群体性情绪的规律予以探索。群体性事件是群体情绪的行为外化表征,后者是前者的内在驱力,且前者的动力来源是消极群体情绪的滋长与扩散。因此,针对群体情绪的产生和扩散机制,尝试建立群体情绪传播与扩散模型,对完善相关理论模型的建立以及预防与处置社会群体性事件都具有重大意义。
本研究包括两个主要部分共8项研究,通过计算机仿真与心理学实证研究相结合的研究方法分别对群体情绪传播以及群体内情绪强度变化的动力学规律及其影响因素进行了研究。
本研究第一部分共完成了如下4项研究：首先对群体情绪传播的动力学规律进行了探索。通过建立“群体情绪传播模型”,对群体情绪传播过程中,三类群体成员：传播者、不传播者以及未被传播者的人数比重随时间变化的规律进行了描述(以下简称“群体情绪传播的规律”)。该模型在继承已有传播模型的基础上,充分考虑了群体成员之间的关系密集程度以及群体成员间关系亲疏远近程度。此外,在模型中充分引入心理因素,弥补了以往模型缺乏人的因素,以至过于简单机械,导致生态效度较低的不足,并为本文后续研究深层次地揭示心理因素在群体情绪传播中所起到的作用提供了理论基础。接着,采用实证研究的方法对群体情绪传播的过程与途径进行了探索与验证。随后,通过计算机仿真与实证研究相结合的方法对群体情绪传播模型的生态效度进行了验证,以探明该模型能否较好地刻画真实情境中群体情绪传播的规律。最后,采用路径分析与方差分析等统计技术探索了群体情绪诱发事件因素与群体心理因素对群体情绪传播中传播者与不传播者人数比重随时间变化的动力学特征(以下简称“群体情绪传播的动力学特征”)的影响。该动力学特征包括：人数比重的峰值、峰值出现时间与终值。
此外,本研究的第二部分共完成了另外4项研究：首先定义了群体情绪传播过程中,整个群体所表现出的情绪强度的一个心理量——“群体内情绪强度”。并通过建立“群体内情绪强度事件动力学模型”描述了群体情绪传播中,整个群体所表现出的群体情绪强度随时间变化的动力学规律。接着,采用与第一部分类似的计算机仿真与实证研究的方法对该模型的生态效度进行了验证,以探明该模型所刻画的上述规律是否与真实情景相符合。最后,采用实证研究的方法并借鉴第一部分研究中的相关结论对影响群体内情绪强度随时间变化的动力学规律的群体心理因素以及情绪诱发事件因素进行了探讨。
本研究采用数学建模、计算机模拟仿真以及心理学实证研究相结合的方法提高了研究的生态效度：一方面,采用建模与仿真的方法可以从宏观的群体层面揭示群体情绪传播以及群体内情绪强度变化的动力学规律,弥补已有心理学相关研究中研究中只能基于微观个体视角研究群体情绪传播的局限性；另一方面,采用心理学实证研究的方法又可以对已有的建模研究缺乏实证检验的不足给予有益的补充。
本研究发现：
(1)通过社会网络关系分析法,本研究提出了群体情绪传播的一条路径,即群体情绪在具有相互亲密与信任关系的群体成员间得以传播,且群体成员间的亲密与信任关系越强则群体情绪在相互间传播的可能性越高。
(2)本研究将情绪社会分享与情绪感染相结合,提出了群体情绪传播过程的“情绪社会分享→情绪感染→情绪再次分享”模型,并通过实证对该模型进行了验证。研究发现,群体情绪传播是在群体成员间通过上述三个连续过程不断实现的。
(3)成员间群体情绪分享与二次分享的意愿、成员受群体情绪感染的程度以及群体成员间的关系密集程度与权重大小可以较准确地刻画出群体情绪传播过程中,传播者、不传播者以及未被传播者的人数比重随时间变化的规律：传播者人数比重随时间呈先增加后减少的变化趋势；不传播者人数比重随时间呈递增且增速减慢的变化趋势；未被传播者人数比重随时间递减。
(4)群体成员达到特定情绪强度所需的群体认同感水平结合群体情绪传播中传播者与不传播者人数比重,可以较准确地刻画出整个群体所表现出的情绪强度——群体内情绪强度随时间变化的规律：群体内情绪强度随时间呈现先增加后递减的变化趋势。
(5)情绪诱发事件的效价与群体的内外属性,群体认同感,亲密度与信任度以及引起关注与互动的动机、获得支持与重评的动机、满足归属感的动机影响着群体情绪的传播以及群体内情绪强度的动力学特征。由内群体积极事件与外群体消极事件诱发的群体情绪较之内群体消极事件与外群体积极事件所诱发的群体情绪,其传播的速度更快,波及的范围更广,且达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度更快且最终强度更大。亲密度与信任度、引起关注与互动与获得支持与重评的动机越高时,群体情绪传播的更快,波及的范围越广,达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大。最后,在内群体积极事件诱发的情绪条件下,群体认同感以及满足归属感的动机越高则群体情绪传播的越快,波及的范围越广,群体达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大；在内群体积极事件诱发的情绪条件下,群体认同感以及满足归属感的动机越高则群体情绪传播的越慢,波及的范围越小,群体达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大。
(6)在群体情绪传播过程中,传播者人数比重与群体内情绪强度大小都随着时间呈现出先增后减的发展趋势,但研究发现,在同一群体中,上述二者峰值出现的时间存在着一定的差异,群体内情绪强度的分支出现时间较之传播者人数比重的峰值出现时间滞后了。也就是说,群体情绪即使不再传播,但整个群体内的情绪强度并没有同步下降,而是可能仍然处在峰值附近,此时若对群体性事件或群体情绪处置不力或放松警惕极有可能出现群体情绪“死灰复燃”的状况。
综上,本研究通过建立两个群体情绪动力学模型,并对这两个模型进行实证检验后发现,二者可以对群体情绪传播过程中,传播与不传播者的人数比重以及群体内情绪强度变化的动态变化规律进行较为准确地描述。此外,基于上述模型,本研究考察了影响模型的传播动力学特征的因素,并进一步明确了影响的方向。本研究的结果必将一方面为群体性事件特别是突发性群体性事件进行实时监控和预警提供科学依据,有助于对群体性事件发生和发展过程进行精确预测；另一方面为有效控制和预防群体性事件中群体情绪的产生和扩散提供重要数据参考,为政府部门的风险管理决策提供行之有效的策略支持。
With the development of economics and the acceleration of social transformation,social contradictions become increasingly prominent. Mass-Emergency (ME) is in the spotlight. A plenty of previous studies paid close attentions to ME's size, information transmission and feedbacks, and also its generation mechanism. Few studies focused on emotions. Even so, how emotions transmit and turn into intergroup emotion was never concerned. Thus, at first, based on system dynamic and emotion theories, using computer simulation technology, the present study attempts to modeling with psychological factors in order to describe the transmission routes and dynamic laws of intergroup emotion-transmission (ET). Secondly, for the sake of verifying the transmission mechanism, data from psychologicalexperiments will compare to simulation results in order to forecast ME accurately and effectively. Thirdly, two methods will combine in order to explore the impact effect of psychological factors. Last but not the least, the present study will strive to define certain kinds of index concerning ET, and also find a critical value of the index when EM happen, thus we can provide scientifical evidences for risk management.
This study contains two main parts,8studies, which explored dynamic mechanism and influncial factors of intergroup emotion-transmission and intergroup emotion intensity.In the first part, study1modeled dynamic mechanism of intergroup emotion-transmission, and named "intergroup emotion-transmission model"(INET).it described the mechanism of intergroup emotion-transmission which concerned3kinds of person during the transmission:spreaders, ignorant and stiflers.This model inherit meritsand took fully disadvantagesof former models into account.study2tested basical hypothesis and ecological validity of INET.At last, path analysis was adopted to explored psychological factors which may influence intergroup emotion-transmission.In the second part,study1defined an intergroup-psychological variable which described emotion intensity of whole groups when intergroup emotion transmitted.and also, a model was constracted to explored dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity. At last, study2took former research results into account and discussed factors which influenced dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity.
Most former researches focued on micro perspective, thus their results had a lot of limitations. In order to improve ecological validity, this study adopted3kinds of methods, including mathematical modeling, computer simulation and psychological empirical research. In one aspect, mathematical modeling, computer simulation contribute to reveal law of intergroup emotion-transmission and dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity from the point of macro perspective.
The results showed that:(1) Using social network analy, this study proposed a path which inter-group emotions can be transmitted:inter-group emotions can be transmitted through trust and intimate relations between inter-group members. The more intimate and trust the more possibility intergroup emotions may be transmitted.
(2) Intergroup emotions can be transmitted between Intimate and trust relation through "social sharing of emotion→emotional contagion→second sharing of emotion" path.(3) Social sharing and second sharing of emotion, emotional contagion, degrees of intimate and trust between group members were3significant factors which could describe the system of dynamic mechanism of spreaders ignorants and stiflers properly.(4) The system of dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity could be described by spreaders, stiflers and group identifications.(5) Valence of activating events and group attributes (in-group and out-group), group identity, intimate, credibility, and3kinds of motivations:acquiring attentions and interactions, seeking to supports and belongings were main influncial factors of2models, though their effects were different.(6) During the emotion transmission,both the portion of spreaders and inter-group emotion intensity is first rising and then descending as time goes by. But this study found that Compared to the climax time of spreader, iner-group emotion intensity is delayed.
本研究包括两个主要部分共8项研究,通过计算机仿真与心理学实证研究相结合的研究方法分别对群体情绪传播以及群体内情绪强度变化的动力学规律及其影响因素进行了研究。
本研究第一部分共完成了如下4项研究：首先对群体情绪传播的动力学规律进行了探索。通过建立“群体情绪传播模型”,对群体情绪传播过程中,三类群体成员：传播者、不传播者以及未被传播者的人数比重随时间变化的规律进行了描述(以下简称“群体情绪传播的规律”)。该模型在继承已有传播模型的基础上,充分考虑了群体成员之间的关系密集程度以及群体成员间关系亲疏远近程度。此外,在模型中充分引入心理因素,弥补了以往模型缺乏人的因素,以至过于简单机械,导致生态效度较低的不足,并为本文后续研究深层次地揭示心理因素在群体情绪传播中所起到的作用提供了理论基础。接着,采用实证研究的方法对群体情绪传播的过程与途径进行了探索与验证。随后,通过计算机仿真与实证研究相结合的方法对群体情绪传播模型的生态效度进行了验证,以探明该模型能否较好地刻画真实情境中群体情绪传播的规律。最后,采用路径分析与方差分析等统计技术探索了群体情绪诱发事件因素与群体心理因素对群体情绪传播中传播者与不传播者人数比重随时间变化的动力学特征(以下简称“群体情绪传播的动力学特征”)的影响。该动力学特征包括：人数比重的峰值、峰值出现时间与终值。
此外,本研究的第二部分共完成了另外4项研究：首先定义了群体情绪传播过程中,整个群体所表现出的情绪强度的一个心理量——“群体内情绪强度”。并通过建立“群体内情绪强度事件动力学模型”描述了群体情绪传播中,整个群体所表现出的群体情绪强度随时间变化的动力学规律。接着,采用与第一部分类似的计算机仿真与实证研究的方法对该模型的生态效度进行了验证,以探明该模型所刻画的上述规律是否与真实情景相符合。最后,采用实证研究的方法并借鉴第一部分研究中的相关结论对影响群体内情绪强度随时间变化的动力学规律的群体心理因素以及情绪诱发事件因素进行了探讨。
本研究采用数学建模、计算机模拟仿真以及心理学实证研究相结合的方法提高了研究的生态效度：一方面,采用建模与仿真的方法可以从宏观的群体层面揭示群体情绪传播以及群体内情绪强度变化的动力学规律,弥补已有心理学相关研究中研究中只能基于微观个体视角研究群体情绪传播的局限性；另一方面,采用心理学实证研究的方法又可以对已有的建模研究缺乏实证检验的不足给予有益的补充。
本研究发现：
(1)通过社会网络关系分析法,本研究提出了群体情绪传播的一条路径,即群体情绪在具有相互亲密与信任关系的群体成员间得以传播,且群体成员间的亲密与信任关系越强则群体情绪在相互间传播的可能性越高。
(2)本研究将情绪社会分享与情绪感染相结合,提出了群体情绪传播过程的“情绪社会分享→情绪感染→情绪再次分享”模型,并通过实证对该模型进行了验证。研究发现,群体情绪传播是在群体成员间通过上述三个连续过程不断实现的。
(3)成员间群体情绪分享与二次分享的意愿、成员受群体情绪感染的程度以及群体成员间的关系密集程度与权重大小可以较准确地刻画出群体情绪传播过程中,传播者、不传播者以及未被传播者的人数比重随时间变化的规律：传播者人数比重随时间呈先增加后减少的变化趋势；不传播者人数比重随时间呈递增且增速减慢的变化趋势；未被传播者人数比重随时间递减。
(4)群体成员达到特定情绪强度所需的群体认同感水平结合群体情绪传播中传播者与不传播者人数比重,可以较准确地刻画出整个群体所表现出的情绪强度——群体内情绪强度随时间变化的规律：群体内情绪强度随时间呈现先增加后递减的变化趋势。
(5)情绪诱发事件的效价与群体的内外属性,群体认同感,亲密度与信任度以及引起关注与互动的动机、获得支持与重评的动机、满足归属感的动机影响着群体情绪的传播以及群体内情绪强度的动力学特征。由内群体积极事件与外群体消极事件诱发的群体情绪较之内群体消极事件与外群体积极事件所诱发的群体情绪,其传播的速度更快,波及的范围更广,且达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度更快且最终强度更大。亲密度与信任度、引起关注与互动与获得支持与重评的动机越高时,群体情绪传播的更快,波及的范围越广,达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大。最后,在内群体积极事件诱发的情绪条件下,群体认同感以及满足归属感的动机越高则群体情绪传播的越快,波及的范围越广,群体达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大；在内群体积极事件诱发的情绪条件下,群体认同感以及满足归属感的动机越高则群体情绪传播的越慢,波及的范围越小,群体达到特定群体内情绪强度的速度越快而且最终强度越大。
(6)在群体情绪传播过程中,传播者人数比重与群体内情绪强度大小都随着时间呈现出先增后减的发展趋势,但研究发现,在同一群体中,上述二者峰值出现的时间存在着一定的差异,群体内情绪强度的分支出现时间较之传播者人数比重的峰值出现时间滞后了。也就是说,群体情绪即使不再传播,但整个群体内的情绪强度并没有同步下降,而是可能仍然处在峰值附近,此时若对群体性事件或群体情绪处置不力或放松警惕极有可能出现群体情绪“死灰复燃”的状况。
综上,本研究通过建立两个群体情绪动力学模型,并对这两个模型进行实证检验后发现,二者可以对群体情绪传播过程中,传播与不传播者的人数比重以及群体内情绪强度变化的动态变化规律进行较为准确地描述。此外,基于上述模型,本研究考察了影响模型的传播动力学特征的因素,并进一步明确了影响的方向。本研究的结果必将一方面为群体性事件特别是突发性群体性事件进行实时监控和预警提供科学依据,有助于对群体性事件发生和发展过程进行精确预测；另一方面为有效控制和预防群体性事件中群体情绪的产生和扩散提供重要数据参考,为政府部门的风险管理决策提供行之有效的策略支持。
With the development of economics and the acceleration of social transformation,social contradictions become increasingly prominent. Mass-Emergency (ME) is in the spotlight. A plenty of previous studies paid close attentions to ME's size, information transmission and feedbacks, and also its generation mechanism. Few studies focused on emotions. Even so, how emotions transmit and turn into intergroup emotion was never concerned. Thus, at first, based on system dynamic and emotion theories, using computer simulation technology, the present study attempts to modeling with psychological factors in order to describe the transmission routes and dynamic laws of intergroup emotion-transmission (ET). Secondly, for the sake of verifying the transmission mechanism, data from psychologicalexperiments will compare to simulation results in order to forecast ME accurately and effectively. Thirdly, two methods will combine in order to explore the impact effect of psychological factors. Last but not the least, the present study will strive to define certain kinds of index concerning ET, and also find a critical value of the index when EM happen, thus we can provide scientifical evidences for risk management.
This study contains two main parts,8studies, which explored dynamic mechanism and influncial factors of intergroup emotion-transmission and intergroup emotion intensity.In the first part, study1modeled dynamic mechanism of intergroup emotion-transmission, and named "intergroup emotion-transmission model"(INET).it described the mechanism of intergroup emotion-transmission which concerned3kinds of person during the transmission:spreaders, ignorant and stiflers.This model inherit meritsand took fully disadvantagesof former models into account.study2tested basical hypothesis and ecological validity of INET.At last, path analysis was adopted to explored psychological factors which may influence intergroup emotion-transmission.In the second part,study1defined an intergroup-psychological variable which described emotion intensity of whole groups when intergroup emotion transmitted.and also, a model was constracted to explored dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity. At last, study2took former research results into account and discussed factors which influenced dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity.
Most former researches focued on micro perspective, thus their results had a lot of limitations. In order to improve ecological validity, this study adopted3kinds of methods, including mathematical modeling, computer simulation and psychological empirical research. In one aspect, mathematical modeling, computer simulation contribute to reveal law of intergroup emotion-transmission and dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity from the point of macro perspective.
The results showed that:(1) Using social network analy, this study proposed a path which inter-group emotions can be transmitted:inter-group emotions can be transmitted through trust and intimate relations between inter-group members. The more intimate and trust the more possibility intergroup emotions may be transmitted.
(2) Intergroup emotions can be transmitted between Intimate and trust relation through "social sharing of emotion→emotional contagion→second sharing of emotion" path.(3) Social sharing and second sharing of emotion, emotional contagion, degrees of intimate and trust between group members were3significant factors which could describe the system of dynamic mechanism of spreaders ignorants and stiflers properly.(4) The system of dynamic mechanism of iner-group emotion intensity could be described by spreaders, stiflers and group identifications.(5) Valence of activating events and group attributes (in-group and out-group), group identity, intimate, credibility, and3kinds of motivations:acquiring attentions and interactions, seeking to supports and belongings were main influncial factors of2models, though their effects were different.(6) During the emotion transmission,both the portion of spreaders and inter-group emotion intensity is first rising and then descending as time goes by. But this study found that Compared to the climax time of spreader, iner-group emotion intensity is delayed.
引文
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