中国地区数字鸿沟的成因和影响：1997-2007
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摘要
“以信息化带动工业化”是中国经济发展的战略选择,也是中国现代化建设的必经之路。信息化,意味着信息技术渗透到经济社会的各个方面,替代旧有的生产方式。信息化,意味着信息技术对人们的信息沟通和知识积累,在方式和途径上带来革命性的改观。然而,信息技术应用普及在发达程度不同的国家和地区间出现了严重的不平衡,形成所谓数字鸿沟。在以信息和知识为竞争要素的新经济时代,信息技术的落后意味着生产方式乃至经济发展方式的落后,也意味着消除地区发展不平衡的巨大障碍。因此,本文选择中国的地区数字鸿沟作为研究课题,将信息技术与经济发展相关联,分析中国地区间数字化差异的状况,探究形成的原因和带来的影响。对于发挥信息技术作用,推进经济发展方式转变,促进地区间和谐发展,具有理论上的意义和现实针对性。
本研究以发展经济学、管理学、网络经济学、计量经济学等基本理论、方法为依据,吸收信息通信的相关知识,在把握技术与经济发展关系理论和数字鸿沟研究文献的基础上构建分析框架,建立测度指标,运用近来十几年的数据,对中国的地区数字鸿沟进行实证研究。
首先,本文以内生增长理论和发展理论为依据,结合以往的文献,提出了一个分析信息技术与经济发展关系的解释性框架,说明信息技术的作用是潜在的,只有通过与人力资本的结合才能实现组织层面创新能力和产出效率的提高,以及个体层面信息收集和知识学习能力的增强,两个层面的累积效应推动整个经济社会的进步。数字鸿沟的涵义包括接入、使用和应用三个逐次递进的层面,与经济涵义上的产品、工具和要素相对应。
其次,在回顾数字鸿沟研究文献的基础上,建立衡量数字化水平的封装化指标和衡量地区数字鸿沟的测度方法,运用统计和面板数据计量方法对中国的地区数字鸿沟进行静态和动态研究,得出以下结论：
全国31个省区通过聚类分析可以分为5组。它们在1997-2007年的11年当中的普及水平呈现出“S”型曲线并分别处于不同的发展阶段。京沪增长趋缓,其他沿海地区快速增长,内地开始起步。以加权基准方法测度的地区数字鸿沟随着技术的变化呈波动中上升的形态。
经济发展水平、人均教育投入、人均收入和平均文化程度与数字化水平具有显著的正相关性。沿海地区在教育、收入和文化程度的促进效应上要高于内地。电信业改革显著促进了电话普及水平的提高。人口流动促进了流入地移动电话普及水平提高。在互联网普及率方面收入促进效应突出说明互联网应用的消费型特征。数字化水平的增长显著地取决于普及水平本身,沿海与内地的数字化水平变化形态十分接近。数字化水平与经济发展的互为影响的关系和教育投入和收入水平对数字化水平的促进作用,决定了在经济发展、教育投入和收入水平上存在显著差异的不同地区之间必然存在着必然的数字鸿沟,在不加干预的情况下将会长期存在。
最后,本文从重视信息技术对转变经济发展方式的作用、市场模式创新、基础技能和应用方法培训、加快新技术条件下的应用普及和增进社会参与等方面提出了提高信息化水平,促进区域均衡发展,推动经济社会和谐进步的对策建议。
"To stimulate industrialization by information technologies" is the strategic choice of China's economic development and the way to moderniztion. Informatization means information technology permeate every aspect of economic and social to replace the original production and revolutionize the way people's communication and knowledge acquisition. However, the diffusion of information technology is in a serious imbalance in developed countries and regions and between developing countries and less developed areas, causing so called the digital divide. Lacks of information technology means not only the backwardness of production and development method but also the greater obstacle in eliminate regional differences. Therefore, this paper selects China's regional digital divide as the research object, relates information technology and economic development to explore the situation and reason of China's regional digital divide. The paper has both theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, the basic theories and methods based on development economics, management, network economics, econometrics, and information technology itself as well are used. Take full advantage of theoretical and empirical literature on information technology in economic development and the digital divide, form a analytic framework, make a emperical study on China's regional digital divide by using more than10years'panel data.
Firstly, base on endogenous growth and development theories and literatures, propose a comprehensive interpretative framework on information technology and economic development to illustrate the potential role of information technology, and only through a combination of human capital to achieve organizational level to the organization from the production of a series of innovation to achieve output efficiency, at the individual level, access to information and knowledge in learning to get more capacity. Organizational efficiency and personal abilities ultimately form the accumulation of of the entire social progress. Digital Divide is viewed as access, use and application layers which respond with three types of commodity, tool and element in economical analysis.
Secondly, a large number of the digital divide literature are reviewed followed by an encapsuled indicator to prepresent the digitalization level and area digital divide index, statistic and both static and dynamic panel data analysis are carried out in different technological manners to the China's area digital divide. The conclusions are as follow:
The31provinces can be divided into5groups by cluster analysis. In the years of1997-2007, the transformations of popularity levels show of "S" curves which in different stages. Shanghai and Beijing slowdown while the coastal areas growth fast and inland are in the beginning. The digital divide evaluated by benchmark and population weighting shows the ascend trend while new technologies presence.
Economic development levels, investment in education and income levels were showing a significant correlation with the penetration, but the educational and income effect of developed areas is more obvious. The telecommunication industrial reform and population mobility improved the telephone popularization level. The internet applications showed a consuming type. The rate of change of coastal areas was similar with inland. With the twoway relations between economic development and ICT popularization, and the strong relation between the education, income and digital level as well, regard as the disparity between the developed and developing areas, the digital divide between the provinces in China would exist obviously for a long time.
Finally, propose to pay more attentions to the ICT for development mode change, market mechanism innovation, accelerating application training and development to fit the new technologies, improve social participation and other aspects of information technology to upgrade informatization, get forward to the balanced areas development and sustainable and harmony social economy development.
本研究以发展经济学、管理学、网络经济学、计量经济学等基本理论、方法为依据,吸收信息通信的相关知识,在把握技术与经济发展关系理论和数字鸿沟研究文献的基础上构建分析框架,建立测度指标,运用近来十几年的数据,对中国的地区数字鸿沟进行实证研究。
首先,本文以内生增长理论和发展理论为依据,结合以往的文献,提出了一个分析信息技术与经济发展关系的解释性框架,说明信息技术的作用是潜在的,只有通过与人力资本的结合才能实现组织层面创新能力和产出效率的提高,以及个体层面信息收集和知识学习能力的增强,两个层面的累积效应推动整个经济社会的进步。数字鸿沟的涵义包括接入、使用和应用三个逐次递进的层面,与经济涵义上的产品、工具和要素相对应。
其次,在回顾数字鸿沟研究文献的基础上,建立衡量数字化水平的封装化指标和衡量地区数字鸿沟的测度方法,运用统计和面板数据计量方法对中国的地区数字鸿沟进行静态和动态研究,得出以下结论：
全国31个省区通过聚类分析可以分为5组。它们在1997-2007年的11年当中的普及水平呈现出“S”型曲线并分别处于不同的发展阶段。京沪增长趋缓,其他沿海地区快速增长,内地开始起步。以加权基准方法测度的地区数字鸿沟随着技术的变化呈波动中上升的形态。
经济发展水平、人均教育投入、人均收入和平均文化程度与数字化水平具有显著的正相关性。沿海地区在教育、收入和文化程度的促进效应上要高于内地。电信业改革显著促进了电话普及水平的提高。人口流动促进了流入地移动电话普及水平提高。在互联网普及率方面收入促进效应突出说明互联网应用的消费型特征。数字化水平的增长显著地取决于普及水平本身,沿海与内地的数字化水平变化形态十分接近。数字化水平与经济发展的互为影响的关系和教育投入和收入水平对数字化水平的促进作用,决定了在经济发展、教育投入和收入水平上存在显著差异的不同地区之间必然存在着必然的数字鸿沟,在不加干预的情况下将会长期存在。
最后,本文从重视信息技术对转变经济发展方式的作用、市场模式创新、基础技能和应用方法培训、加快新技术条件下的应用普及和增进社会参与等方面提出了提高信息化水平,促进区域均衡发展,推动经济社会和谐进步的对策建议。
"To stimulate industrialization by information technologies" is the strategic choice of China's economic development and the way to moderniztion. Informatization means information technology permeate every aspect of economic and social to replace the original production and revolutionize the way people's communication and knowledge acquisition. However, the diffusion of information technology is in a serious imbalance in developed countries and regions and between developing countries and less developed areas, causing so called the digital divide. Lacks of information technology means not only the backwardness of production and development method but also the greater obstacle in eliminate regional differences. Therefore, this paper selects China's regional digital divide as the research object, relates information technology and economic development to explore the situation and reason of China's regional digital divide. The paper has both theoretical and practical significance.
In this paper, the basic theories and methods based on development economics, management, network economics, econometrics, and information technology itself as well are used. Take full advantage of theoretical and empirical literature on information technology in economic development and the digital divide, form a analytic framework, make a emperical study on China's regional digital divide by using more than10years'panel data.
Firstly, base on endogenous growth and development theories and literatures, propose a comprehensive interpretative framework on information technology and economic development to illustrate the potential role of information technology, and only through a combination of human capital to achieve organizational level to the organization from the production of a series of innovation to achieve output efficiency, at the individual level, access to information and knowledge in learning to get more capacity. Organizational efficiency and personal abilities ultimately form the accumulation of of the entire social progress. Digital Divide is viewed as access, use and application layers which respond with three types of commodity, tool and element in economical analysis.
Secondly, a large number of the digital divide literature are reviewed followed by an encapsuled indicator to prepresent the digitalization level and area digital divide index, statistic and both static and dynamic panel data analysis are carried out in different technological manners to the China's area digital divide. The conclusions are as follow:
The31provinces can be divided into5groups by cluster analysis. In the years of1997-2007, the transformations of popularity levels show of "S" curves which in different stages. Shanghai and Beijing slowdown while the coastal areas growth fast and inland are in the beginning. The digital divide evaluated by benchmark and population weighting shows the ascend trend while new technologies presence.
Economic development levels, investment in education and income levels were showing a significant correlation with the penetration, but the educational and income effect of developed areas is more obvious. The telecommunication industrial reform and population mobility improved the telephone popularization level. The internet applications showed a consuming type. The rate of change of coastal areas was similar with inland. With the twoway relations between economic development and ICT popularization, and the strong relation between the education, income and digital level as well, regard as the disparity between the developed and developing areas, the digital divide between the provinces in China would exist obviously for a long time.
Finally, propose to pay more attentions to the ICT for development mode change, market mechanism innovation, accelerating application training and development to fit the new technologies, improve social participation and other aspects of information technology to upgrade informatization, get forward to the balanced areas development and sustainable and harmony social economy development.
引文
1 http://www.itu.int/ITU-D/ict/statistics/maps.html
2 联合国开发计划署(UNDP),d'Orville,2000
10 参考Uyless Black著ATM:foundation for broadband networks第42页。
11 参考Uyless Black著ATM:foundation for broadband networks第53页。
13 摩尔定律的内容是：微处理器的性能每隔18个月提高一倍,而价格下降一半。
15 详细推导参阅奥兹·谢伊《网络产业经济学》上海财经大学出版社,2002年10月第1版,P14-15,74-82。
22 数据来源为各年度《中国信息年鉴》、《中国互联网统计报告》。
27 数据来源：《2007中国统计年鉴》
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2 联合国开发计划署(UNDP),d'Orville,2000
10 参考Uyless Black著ATM:foundation for broadband networks第42页。
11 参考Uyless Black著ATM:foundation for broadband networks第53页。
13 摩尔定律的内容是：微处理器的性能每隔18个月提高一倍,而价格下降一半。
15 详细推导参阅奥兹·谢伊《网络产业经济学》上海财经大学出版社,2002年10月第1版,P14-15,74-82。
22 数据来源为各年度《中国信息年鉴》、《中国互联网统计报告》。
27 数据来源：《2007中国统计年鉴》
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