基于复杂性科学的交通运输企业匹配并购研究
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摘要
交通运输业是在国民经济中专门从事运送货物和旅客的社会生产部门,包括公路、水运、铁路和航空等不同的运输方式。各种运输方式之间以及同一种运输方式之内的竞争,以目前的市场结构和行政管理体制是较难解决效率低下、协调性差等问题的。交通运输是网络运输,只有集约化、网络化才有规模经济,而并购是达到这种效果的有效途径之一。交通运输企业之间的并购不论是从并购发生的次数还是从并购交易额来说,在我国的并购交易市场上都占有很大比重,但实际并购效果并不明显。并购是一项复杂性活动,并购绩效除了受到目标企业的选择对象影响外,还受到政府的意愿、领导者的动机和能力、并购时机和主并企业的资源和能力等因素影响,这些因素的共同作用使得并购绩效的预测变得异常复杂,任何一个因素微小变化都有可能造成难以预料的结果。并购绩效对初始条件的敏感性使得传统的线性研究范式已经失效。本文力图以复杂性科学中的熵理论、耗散结构理论和协同学为理论依据,阐明交通运输企业并购的必要性,提出了交通运输企业匹配并购的概念,找到影响并购效果的影响因素,从而达到提高并购绩效的目的。
根据复杂性科学理论,企业是一个多层次、多因素的复杂开放系统,企业系统在运行的过程当中往往是一种非平衡的开放系统,并购行为是企业系统演变中的一种突变,并购是一个复杂且充满风险的工作。要想取得良好的并购绩效,根据耗散结构理论和系统理论就必须在实施并购的过程当中,详细地分析交通运输企业的微观系统、中观系统和宏观系统。微观系统重点要研究的是主并企业自身的并购能力,中观系统要分析主并企业与目标企业之间在资源、规模、战略等方面的匹配,宏观系统要分析外部环境因素,包括利益相关者、交通运输行业现状和特点,特别要强调交通运输企业并购中与政府关系的处理。综合起来本文提出了交通运输企业的匹配并购思想,并购必须要满足三个方面的匹配：一是并购行为要与自己的并购能力相匹配,也就是要有吸收外界物质和能量的能力。这是并购产生绩效的前提条件；二是并购企业必须与目标公司相匹配,该匹配是产生并购绩效最重要的保证；三是并购战略和动机必须要外围环境相匹配。这三个方面的匹配决定了并购后整合的难易程度,也是取得良好并购绩效的基础。本文通过对这三个方面的匹配分析,论证了匹配与并购绩效之间的关系,并根据匹配的性质,建立了基于动态集对分析的并购匹配性评价模型,通过该模型可以算出并购匹配性在经过几个阶段的转变后最后稳定态时候的集对联系度,该模型建立了动态匹配的理念。
并购中的匹配性动态控制贯穿整个并购过程,为了证明匹配性在并购中的重要性,本文在匹配性分析之后,分析了匹配性与并购绩效之间的关系,运用协同学理论揭示了并购后企业绩效的演变,结合交通运输企业并购的特点,突出了交通运输企业并购的复杂性,对传统的并购短期和长期绩效评价方法进行改进,提出了基于混沌神经网络的短期绩效评价模型和基于粗糙集理论的并购长期绩效灰色评价模型。
最后论文以江西长运股份有限公司为实际案例,运用前面所建立的模型对该公司的并购能力进行动态评价,并以该公司历史上的黄山并购和抚州并购为研究对象,对这两次并购中的匹配性进行分析评价,最后结合这两次并购后的短期和长期绩效分析匹配性和并购绩效之间的关系,并提出相应的对策和措施。
Transportation industry is social production sector in the national economy specializes in the delivery of goods and passengers including roads、water、rail and aviation, the different modes of transport competition within the same mode of transport, As well as among the various modes of transport of competition, in the present market structure and administrative system it is more difficult to solve inefficiencies and poor co-ordination problems. Transport is the transport network, and only intensive, network-based can produce economies of scale, while the merger is an effective way to achieve this effect. Transportation M&A(mergers and acquisitions),whether the number of mergers and acquisitions or M&A transactions took place, the M&A transactions in China account for a large proportion of the M& A market in both, but the actual effects of mergers and acquisitions are not obvious. M&A is a complex activity, performance of mergers and acquisitions is influenced by the target company, apart from the impact the choice of objects, but also by the wish of the Government, the motivations and capabilities of the leaders, mergers and acquisitions time and the resources and capacity factors, The combined effect of these factors makes the acquisition of performance change is very complex, small changes in any of these factors could cause unpredictable results. M&A performance sensitivity to initial conditions makes the traditional linear paradigm has been ineffective. This paper is trying to use entropy theory, dissipative structure theory and synergy theory in complexity science as the theoretical basis, to clarify the need for transportation industry mergers and acquisitions, put forward fit M&A concept of transport industry, find the factors affecting performance of mergers and acquisitions, thereby to achieve the purpose of improving the performance of mergers and acquisitions.
According to the complex scientific theory, business is a multi-level, multi-factor complex open systems, enterprise systems is often a non-equilibrium open systems in operation process, M&A behavior is the evolution of enterprise systems in a mutant, M&A is a complex and risky task. To achieve good performance of mergers and acquisitions, according to the theory of dissipative structure theory and the system theory must be in the implementation of M&A process, a detailed analysis of micro-enterprises and transportation systems, the concept of systems and macroscopic systems. Focus on micro-system to study the enterprise's own M&A capability in view of the system and to analyze the main objectives of enterprises and between enterprises in resources, size, strategy and so links, macro-system to analyze the external environmental factors, including the stakeholders, the status and characteristics of the transport sector, with particular emphasis on mergers and acquisitions in the transport and handling of government relations. Taken together this paper, the matching transport companies thinking of mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions must meet three fit:First, M&A activity must fit with its ability that is, to have the material and energy absorption capacity of the outside world. This is a prerequisite for the performance of merger and acquisition; Second, M&A business must be fited with the target company, the fit is to produce the most important guarantee of performance mergers and acquisitions; third, M&A strategy and motivation must fit with the external environment.The fit of these three areas determines the difficulty of post-merger integration is also a good basis for the performance of mergers and acquisitions. In this paper, according to fit analysis of these three aspects, demonstrated the relationship between performance of mergers and acquisitions and fit, based on the nature of the fit, establish dynamic fit assessment model on the basis of set pair analysis, through which the model can calculate the matching M&A after several stages of the final steady-state after the change when the set of pairs of connection degree, the model for the establishment of a dynamic fitting concept.
M&A fitting dynamic control is throughout the entire acquisition process, in order to prove that the importance of fit in mergers and acquisitions, after the fitting analysis, analyze the relationship between fit and M&A performance, use synergy theory reveals the evolution of business performance after M&A, combined with the transport industry characteristics of mergers and acquisitions, highlights the complex nature of the transport industry in M&A, improve traditional performance evaluation way of short-term and long-term, proposed to short-term performance evaluation model based on the chaotic neural network, and long-term performance gray evaluation model based on rough set theory.
Finally, papers use Jiangxichangyun as actual case, using the model established in front of the charpter to evaluate dynamically company's ability in mergers and acquisitions, and use Huangshan acquisitions and fuzhou acquisitions as the research object in the company's M&A history, analyze and evaluate fit situation of these two acquisitions, in the last, combinate these two post-merger performance of short-term and long-term, analyze the relationship between performance and fit situation, and propose appropriate countermeasures and measures.
根据复杂性科学理论,企业是一个多层次、多因素的复杂开放系统,企业系统在运行的过程当中往往是一种非平衡的开放系统,并购行为是企业系统演变中的一种突变,并购是一个复杂且充满风险的工作。要想取得良好的并购绩效,根据耗散结构理论和系统理论就必须在实施并购的过程当中,详细地分析交通运输企业的微观系统、中观系统和宏观系统。微观系统重点要研究的是主并企业自身的并购能力,中观系统要分析主并企业与目标企业之间在资源、规模、战略等方面的匹配,宏观系统要分析外部环境因素,包括利益相关者、交通运输行业现状和特点,特别要强调交通运输企业并购中与政府关系的处理。综合起来本文提出了交通运输企业的匹配并购思想,并购必须要满足三个方面的匹配：一是并购行为要与自己的并购能力相匹配,也就是要有吸收外界物质和能量的能力。这是并购产生绩效的前提条件；二是并购企业必须与目标公司相匹配,该匹配是产生并购绩效最重要的保证；三是并购战略和动机必须要外围环境相匹配。这三个方面的匹配决定了并购后整合的难易程度,也是取得良好并购绩效的基础。本文通过对这三个方面的匹配分析,论证了匹配与并购绩效之间的关系,并根据匹配的性质,建立了基于动态集对分析的并购匹配性评价模型,通过该模型可以算出并购匹配性在经过几个阶段的转变后最后稳定态时候的集对联系度,该模型建立了动态匹配的理念。
并购中的匹配性动态控制贯穿整个并购过程,为了证明匹配性在并购中的重要性,本文在匹配性分析之后,分析了匹配性与并购绩效之间的关系,运用协同学理论揭示了并购后企业绩效的演变,结合交通运输企业并购的特点,突出了交通运输企业并购的复杂性,对传统的并购短期和长期绩效评价方法进行改进,提出了基于混沌神经网络的短期绩效评价模型和基于粗糙集理论的并购长期绩效灰色评价模型。
最后论文以江西长运股份有限公司为实际案例,运用前面所建立的模型对该公司的并购能力进行动态评价,并以该公司历史上的黄山并购和抚州并购为研究对象,对这两次并购中的匹配性进行分析评价,最后结合这两次并购后的短期和长期绩效分析匹配性和并购绩效之间的关系,并提出相应的对策和措施。
Transportation industry is social production sector in the national economy specializes in the delivery of goods and passengers including roads、water、rail and aviation, the different modes of transport competition within the same mode of transport, As well as among the various modes of transport of competition, in the present market structure and administrative system it is more difficult to solve inefficiencies and poor co-ordination problems. Transport is the transport network, and only intensive, network-based can produce economies of scale, while the merger is an effective way to achieve this effect. Transportation M&A(mergers and acquisitions),whether the number of mergers and acquisitions or M&A transactions took place, the M&A transactions in China account for a large proportion of the M& A market in both, but the actual effects of mergers and acquisitions are not obvious. M&A is a complex activity, performance of mergers and acquisitions is influenced by the target company, apart from the impact the choice of objects, but also by the wish of the Government, the motivations and capabilities of the leaders, mergers and acquisitions time and the resources and capacity factors, The combined effect of these factors makes the acquisition of performance change is very complex, small changes in any of these factors could cause unpredictable results. M&A performance sensitivity to initial conditions makes the traditional linear paradigm has been ineffective. This paper is trying to use entropy theory, dissipative structure theory and synergy theory in complexity science as the theoretical basis, to clarify the need for transportation industry mergers and acquisitions, put forward fit M&A concept of transport industry, find the factors affecting performance of mergers and acquisitions, thereby to achieve the purpose of improving the performance of mergers and acquisitions.
According to the complex scientific theory, business is a multi-level, multi-factor complex open systems, enterprise systems is often a non-equilibrium open systems in operation process, M&A behavior is the evolution of enterprise systems in a mutant, M&A is a complex and risky task. To achieve good performance of mergers and acquisitions, according to the theory of dissipative structure theory and the system theory must be in the implementation of M&A process, a detailed analysis of micro-enterprises and transportation systems, the concept of systems and macroscopic systems. Focus on micro-system to study the enterprise's own M&A capability in view of the system and to analyze the main objectives of enterprises and between enterprises in resources, size, strategy and so links, macro-system to analyze the external environmental factors, including the stakeholders, the status and characteristics of the transport sector, with particular emphasis on mergers and acquisitions in the transport and handling of government relations. Taken together this paper, the matching transport companies thinking of mergers and acquisitions, mergers and acquisitions must meet three fit:First, M&A activity must fit with its ability that is, to have the material and energy absorption capacity of the outside world. This is a prerequisite for the performance of merger and acquisition; Second, M&A business must be fited with the target company, the fit is to produce the most important guarantee of performance mergers and acquisitions; third, M&A strategy and motivation must fit with the external environment.The fit of these three areas determines the difficulty of post-merger integration is also a good basis for the performance of mergers and acquisitions. In this paper, according to fit analysis of these three aspects, demonstrated the relationship between performance of mergers and acquisitions and fit, based on the nature of the fit, establish dynamic fit assessment model on the basis of set pair analysis, through which the model can calculate the matching M&A after several stages of the final steady-state after the change when the set of pairs of connection degree, the model for the establishment of a dynamic fitting concept.
M&A fitting dynamic control is throughout the entire acquisition process, in order to prove that the importance of fit in mergers and acquisitions, after the fitting analysis, analyze the relationship between fit and M&A performance, use synergy theory reveals the evolution of business performance after M&A, combined with the transport industry characteristics of mergers and acquisitions, highlights the complex nature of the transport industry in M&A, improve traditional performance evaluation way of short-term and long-term, proposed to short-term performance evaluation model based on the chaotic neural network, and long-term performance gray evaluation model based on rough set theory.
Finally, papers use Jiangxichangyun as actual case, using the model established in front of the charpter to evaluate dynamically company's ability in mergers and acquisitions, and use Huangshan acquisitions and fuzhou acquisitions as the research object in the company's M&A history, analyze and evaluate fit situation of these two acquisitions, in the last, combinate these two post-merger performance of short-term and long-term, analyze the relationship between performance and fit situation, and propose appropriate countermeasures and measures.
引文
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