应急交通保障辅助决策支持系统相关模型与方法研究
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摘要
随着我国大中城市汽车数量的迅猛增长,交通事故、交通拥挤等问题已经成为城市经济发展的瓶颈。我国大中城市正处于“非常态”的危机多发期。灾害突发事件对人们生活的影响越来越大,对居民的生命财产造成极大威胁。交通作为现代化城市的动脉,任何救援活动都离不开道路畅通。而道路畅通是交通保障的主要形式,是配送应急物资、人员和应急医疗救助及其他应急救援的前提条件,同时道路的畅通可以减少生命与财产的损失,将事件损失降低到最小。例如都江堰至汶川的公路是汶川地震抗震救灾的生命线,由于道路被泥石流冲毁损坏严重,导致救灾物资和人员迟迟不能进入,受灾人群不能及时疏散,致使抢险救援工作无法进行,造成了灾情的进一步恶化。因此,积极开展应急交通组织保障与应急交通辅助决策支持系统的研究与开发,为防灾救灾提供有效信息,降低灾害损失程度、提高我国应对重大灾害的能力具有重要意义。
目前,国内外很多领域的应急辅助决策支持系统都集成应用了专家系统技术与方法,应用人工智能技术模拟专家所具有的知识与解决问题的思维过程,在求解各领域内特定问题时达到或接近专家的水平,同时人工智能在知识获取、知识表示、知识存储和知识运用方面均取得了长足进展。
在这样的背景下,国家科技部设立了“863计划”专题课题(2009AA11Z218),由吉林大学、武汉大学、交通部科学研究院和德州市公路勘察设计院共同研发重大灾害条件下交通组织保障技术。本文主要对其应急交通保障辅助决策支持系统展开研究和论述,本文以专家系统为核心,综合交通信息采集系统及其他数据信息系统,建立了应急交通辅助决策支持系统。本文具体研究内容如下：
1)突发事件条件下,应急交通辅助决策支持系统的效果取决于路网及交通信息的全面性、及时性和可靠性。由于突发事件具有显著的突发性和破坏性,所以对基于遥感图像的增强型交通信息采集技术的研究便具有十分重要的现实意义。本文基于这一目的重点对基于遥感图像的车队、单车的提取算法进行了一些尝试性的研究,并基于此对遥感图像的密度信息的提取算法进行了设计,所提出的方法简单、有效,在一般的交通工程应用之中完全可以满足精度要求。
2)模型库是应急交通辅助决策支持系统中最复杂、最难实现的部分。系统用户是依靠模型库中的模型进行决策。本文根据灾害条件下应急交通辅助决策支持系统的功能需求,分析了相关应急交通辅助决策支持系统模型,并对其中的关键技术—基于云模型的交通流量预测技术和基于合同模式的动态交通分配进行重点研究。
3)本文分析了知识及推理的相关概念,然后对系统基础数据库做了初步设计,主要包括预案库和资源库。接下来研究了知识获取的任务与方式,并提出了基于一种粗糙集的交通状态知识获取方法,实现了交通知识的自动获取。最后详细分析了推理的控制策略与方法,在此基础上提出了一种基于案例推理的交通拥挤疏导决策方法,提高了应急交通管理决策的智能性与灵活性。
4)本文针对系统的相关特性,对系统的用户需求、信息需求和其他需求做了分析,对系统的人机交互界面做了设计和规定,最后初步实现了系统的开发。
应急交通辅助决策支持系统的建设是重大灾害条件下交通组织保障技术重中之重。积极开展应急交通辅助决策支持系统相关模型与方法的研究具有重要的现实意义和实用价值。
With the number of cars rapid growth in our country large and medium-sized city, urban traffic accident and traffic congestion problems have become the bottleneck of the city's economic development. Chinese cities are in "the crisis will occur frequently comparatively". Disaster events have more and more influence to the people life, and have the tremendous threat for people lives and property. As a modern city traffic artery, any relief activities are inseparable from the roads. And the roads are the main form of traffic guidance, is distribution emergency supplies, personnel, emergency medical aid and other emergency rescue premise condition, meanwhile road free can reduce the loss of life and property, to minimize the loss events. For example from du jiangyan to wen chuan the highway is the lifeline during of aseismatic wen chuan earthquake.Because the roads were seriously damaged by the debris flow destroyed and lead to disaster relief supplies and personnel can't enter.The affected population can not be evacuated in time. The rescue work cann't be done,so the disaster was further deterioration. Therefore, the research and developmen of actively carry out the emergency traffic organization and traffic emergency decision support systemt have important practical significance to provide effective information for disaster relief,to reduce the level of disaster losses and to enhance our country's response to major disasters ability.
At present, the domestic and foreign many areas of emergency decision support are integrated application technology and the method of expert system.The artificial intelligence technology can simulate the expert knowledge and the thinking process. It can be reach or come close to experts level. Meanwhile these have achieved great progress in knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, knowledge storage and utilization of knowledge areas.
Based on this background, Ministry of Science and Technology instituted thematic issues named 863 program (2009AA11Z218) to research traffic security technology under a major disaster jointly.This paper mainly study and discuss on the assisted decision support system of emergency traffic guidance in fatal disaster. Based on the expert system as the core, this paper has established the city assisted decision support system of emergency with the information collection system for transportation and other data information system. This paper studies the content as follows:
1) Under the emergency condition, the emergency transportation decision support system's effect depends on the comprehensive, timeliness and reliability of the road network and the transportation information. Because the emergency has the remarkable burst characteristics and destructiveness, based on remote sensing images and the traffic information collection technology research has the very vital practical significance. This paper is based on this goal to do some tentative research on the car and single vehicle extraction algorithm of the remote sensing image, and has designed the extraction algorithm of the remote sensing image density information. The proposed method is simple and effective, and in general traffic engineering application can satisfy the requirement of accuracy.
2) The model base is the most difficult to achieve part in the emergency traffic control decision support system.The user can make the decision in according to the model. According to the disaster condition traffic emergency decision support system function requirements,this paper designs the emergency decision support system model base and the key technologies,which based on the cloud model's traffic flow forecasting technology and the contract pattern's dynamic traffic distribution.
3) This paper has made the analysis the concepts of knowledge and reasoning,then preliminary designs the system foundation database, including the pre-arranged planning database and resource database. This paper has research the task and methods of knowledge acquisition.And put forward a traffic condition knowledge acquisition method based on a rough set, to realize the automatic acquisition traffic. Finally,this paper has detailed analysis the reasoning control strategy and method, and on this basis, proposes a case-based reasoning decision-making methods to ease traffic congestion and improve the emergency traffic control and flexibility in decision-making intelligence.
4) This paper has made the analysis about the relevant characteristics of the system, the system user needs, information needs and other needs.And designs the system's interactive interface development and implementation.Finally,this paper realizes came true system development.
The assisted decision support system is a major technology in the research traffic security technology under a major disaster jointly. Active research related model and method of the traffic emergency decision support system has important practical significance and practical value.
目前,国内外很多领域的应急辅助决策支持系统都集成应用了专家系统技术与方法,应用人工智能技术模拟专家所具有的知识与解决问题的思维过程,在求解各领域内特定问题时达到或接近专家的水平,同时人工智能在知识获取、知识表示、知识存储和知识运用方面均取得了长足进展。
在这样的背景下,国家科技部设立了“863计划”专题课题(2009AA11Z218),由吉林大学、武汉大学、交通部科学研究院和德州市公路勘察设计院共同研发重大灾害条件下交通组织保障技术。本文主要对其应急交通保障辅助决策支持系统展开研究和论述,本文以专家系统为核心,综合交通信息采集系统及其他数据信息系统,建立了应急交通辅助决策支持系统。本文具体研究内容如下：
1)突发事件条件下,应急交通辅助决策支持系统的效果取决于路网及交通信息的全面性、及时性和可靠性。由于突发事件具有显著的突发性和破坏性,所以对基于遥感图像的增强型交通信息采集技术的研究便具有十分重要的现实意义。本文基于这一目的重点对基于遥感图像的车队、单车的提取算法进行了一些尝试性的研究,并基于此对遥感图像的密度信息的提取算法进行了设计,所提出的方法简单、有效,在一般的交通工程应用之中完全可以满足精度要求。
2)模型库是应急交通辅助决策支持系统中最复杂、最难实现的部分。系统用户是依靠模型库中的模型进行决策。本文根据灾害条件下应急交通辅助决策支持系统的功能需求,分析了相关应急交通辅助决策支持系统模型,并对其中的关键技术—基于云模型的交通流量预测技术和基于合同模式的动态交通分配进行重点研究。
3)本文分析了知识及推理的相关概念,然后对系统基础数据库做了初步设计,主要包括预案库和资源库。接下来研究了知识获取的任务与方式,并提出了基于一种粗糙集的交通状态知识获取方法,实现了交通知识的自动获取。最后详细分析了推理的控制策略与方法,在此基础上提出了一种基于案例推理的交通拥挤疏导决策方法,提高了应急交通管理决策的智能性与灵活性。
4)本文针对系统的相关特性,对系统的用户需求、信息需求和其他需求做了分析,对系统的人机交互界面做了设计和规定,最后初步实现了系统的开发。
应急交通辅助决策支持系统的建设是重大灾害条件下交通组织保障技术重中之重。积极开展应急交通辅助决策支持系统相关模型与方法的研究具有重要的现实意义和实用价值。
With the number of cars rapid growth in our country large and medium-sized city, urban traffic accident and traffic congestion problems have become the bottleneck of the city's economic development. Chinese cities are in "the crisis will occur frequently comparatively". Disaster events have more and more influence to the people life, and have the tremendous threat for people lives and property. As a modern city traffic artery, any relief activities are inseparable from the roads. And the roads are the main form of traffic guidance, is distribution emergency supplies, personnel, emergency medical aid and other emergency rescue premise condition, meanwhile road free can reduce the loss of life and property, to minimize the loss events. For example from du jiangyan to wen chuan the highway is the lifeline during of aseismatic wen chuan earthquake.Because the roads were seriously damaged by the debris flow destroyed and lead to disaster relief supplies and personnel can't enter.The affected population can not be evacuated in time. The rescue work cann't be done,so the disaster was further deterioration. Therefore, the research and developmen of actively carry out the emergency traffic organization and traffic emergency decision support systemt have important practical significance to provide effective information for disaster relief,to reduce the level of disaster losses and to enhance our country's response to major disasters ability.
At present, the domestic and foreign many areas of emergency decision support are integrated application technology and the method of expert system.The artificial intelligence technology can simulate the expert knowledge and the thinking process. It can be reach or come close to experts level. Meanwhile these have achieved great progress in knowledge acquisition, knowledge representation, knowledge storage and utilization of knowledge areas.
Based on this background, Ministry of Science and Technology instituted thematic issues named 863 program (2009AA11Z218) to research traffic security technology under a major disaster jointly.This paper mainly study and discuss on the assisted decision support system of emergency traffic guidance in fatal disaster. Based on the expert system as the core, this paper has established the city assisted decision support system of emergency with the information collection system for transportation and other data information system. This paper studies the content as follows:
1) Under the emergency condition, the emergency transportation decision support system's effect depends on the comprehensive, timeliness and reliability of the road network and the transportation information. Because the emergency has the remarkable burst characteristics and destructiveness, based on remote sensing images and the traffic information collection technology research has the very vital practical significance. This paper is based on this goal to do some tentative research on the car and single vehicle extraction algorithm of the remote sensing image, and has designed the extraction algorithm of the remote sensing image density information. The proposed method is simple and effective, and in general traffic engineering application can satisfy the requirement of accuracy.
2) The model base is the most difficult to achieve part in the emergency traffic control decision support system.The user can make the decision in according to the model. According to the disaster condition traffic emergency decision support system function requirements,this paper designs the emergency decision support system model base and the key technologies,which based on the cloud model's traffic flow forecasting technology and the contract pattern's dynamic traffic distribution.
3) This paper has made the analysis the concepts of knowledge and reasoning,then preliminary designs the system foundation database, including the pre-arranged planning database and resource database. This paper has research the task and methods of knowledge acquisition.And put forward a traffic condition knowledge acquisition method based on a rough set, to realize the automatic acquisition traffic. Finally,this paper has detailed analysis the reasoning control strategy and method, and on this basis, proposes a case-based reasoning decision-making methods to ease traffic congestion and improve the emergency traffic control and flexibility in decision-making intelligence.
4) This paper has made the analysis about the relevant characteristics of the system, the system user needs, information needs and other needs.And designs the system's interactive interface development and implementation.Finally,this paper realizes came true system development.
The assisted decision support system is a major technology in the research traffic security technology under a major disaster jointly. Active research related model and method of the traffic emergency decision support system has important practical significance and practical value.
引文
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