基于熵权多级模糊综合评价的虚拟企业风险研究
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摘要
现阶段,虚拟企业作为一种新的管理运作模式,已经开始在实际中得到广泛应用。虚拟企业能够敏捷地响应市场需求,降低成本, 尤其是制造业可以大幅度降低研究开发成本,使企业较快地进入全球市场,实现利润共享的同时也带来了一些新的风险问题。风险问题又是制约着虚拟企业生存与发展的关键,因此,分析研究影响虚拟企业风险的主要影响因素,进而评价虚拟企业风险管理水平,无疑具有重要的现实意义。
首先,本文从虚拟企业的产生,发展和现状分析入手,系统分析了虚拟企业风险产生的机理,风险及其影响因素的特点,采用解析结构模型进行虚拟企业的风险因素的识别,并深入研究了虚拟企业风险管理的关键影响要素,建立关于虚拟企业风险的评价指标体系;其次,运用聚类分析的方法对20 份专家的调查问卷进行了筛选,得到16 份有效的调查问卷;再次,运用熵理论和熵权的方法来确定各个指标的权重;得到消费者需求变动的权重为:0.308,竞争风险权重为:0.172,信用问题的权重为:0.164,技术外泄问题的权重为0.032,,沟通问题的权重为:0.059,技术问题的权重为:0.027,质量问题的权重为:0.204,时间问题的权重为:0.034。最后,采用多级模糊综合评价方法对虚拟企业的风险进行评价。虚拟企业风险评价结果:虚拟企业风险处于高度风险的概率为18.7%,较高风险的概率为23.7%,一般风险的概率为42.7%,较低风险的概率为14.4%,而很低的风险的概率为0.5%。
通过上述分析评价研究,根据评价结果找出影响虚拟企业风险较高的原因,针对虚拟企业风险管理过程中存在的问题,提出了相应的风险防范措施:虚拟企业应尽量避免风险、虚拟企业应尽量排除各种可预置的风险隐患、虚拟企业应尽量转移风险、虚拟企业应尽量分散风险、虚拟企业应尽量自留风险,虚拟企业应建立风险核对表等。以期对虚拟企业的风险管理提供一定的借鉴和参考。
Being a new type of managerial operation model, virtual enterprise has already been widely used in practice nowadays. Virtual enterprise can response to the change of market demand promptly, can reduce cost, especially, can sharply reduce R&D cost for manufacturing enterprises, therefore, can make enterprises enter global market with a high speed, realize profit co-sharing. However, this can also bring some new risk problems, which are the key factor restraining the existence and development of virtual enterprises. Thus, to analyze the main factors affecting virtual enterprise’s risk, and to evaluate risk management level of virtual enterprise, is no doubt of great practical significance.
By starting with the emerging, development and present situation analysis of virtual enterprise, this thesis systematically analyzes the procreant mechanism of virtual enterprise’s risk, the special features of the virtual enterprise’s risk and the major influence factors, the factors affecting of virtual enterprise’s risk are be identified by interpretation structure model and lucubrate them, then sets up evaluation indexes system on virtual enterprise; Secondly, the thesis sieves experts’investigate questionnaires by adapting “cluster analysis”and reduce twenty to sixteen;Thirdly, by using entropy theories and entropy coefficient methods, confirm the power weightiness of the each indexes: the change of customer’s demand is 0.308, compete risk is 0.172, credited problem is 0.164, technology leak problem is 0.032,communicate problem is 0.059,technology problem is 0.027, quality problem is 0.204, time problem is 0.034; At last, by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation the thesis qualitatively & quantitatively evaluates the overall risk level of virtual enterprise , figures out the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the highest level is 0.187; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the higher level is 0.237; the probability of virtual enterprise’s
risk in the common level is 0.427; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the lower level is 0.144; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the lowest level is 0.005. By through the study mentioned above, the thesis figures out some critical problems existed in virtual enterprise’s risk management and their roots, also comes up with policies such as avoiding it’s risk; getting rid of it’s hidden risk; transferring it’s risk; separating it’s risk; leaving for personal needs the risk; setting up risk check list, etc., with an expectation to provide certain reference for virtual enterprise’s risk management.
首先,本文从虚拟企业的产生,发展和现状分析入手,系统分析了虚拟企业风险产生的机理,风险及其影响因素的特点,采用解析结构模型进行虚拟企业的风险因素的识别,并深入研究了虚拟企业风险管理的关键影响要素,建立关于虚拟企业风险的评价指标体系;其次,运用聚类分析的方法对20 份专家的调查问卷进行了筛选,得到16 份有效的调查问卷;再次,运用熵理论和熵权的方法来确定各个指标的权重;得到消费者需求变动的权重为:0.308,竞争风险权重为:0.172,信用问题的权重为:0.164,技术外泄问题的权重为0.032,,沟通问题的权重为:0.059,技术问题的权重为:0.027,质量问题的权重为:0.204,时间问题的权重为:0.034。最后,采用多级模糊综合评价方法对虚拟企业的风险进行评价。虚拟企业风险评价结果:虚拟企业风险处于高度风险的概率为18.7%,较高风险的概率为23.7%,一般风险的概率为42.7%,较低风险的概率为14.4%,而很低的风险的概率为0.5%。
通过上述分析评价研究,根据评价结果找出影响虚拟企业风险较高的原因,针对虚拟企业风险管理过程中存在的问题,提出了相应的风险防范措施:虚拟企业应尽量避免风险、虚拟企业应尽量排除各种可预置的风险隐患、虚拟企业应尽量转移风险、虚拟企业应尽量分散风险、虚拟企业应尽量自留风险,虚拟企业应建立风险核对表等。以期对虚拟企业的风险管理提供一定的借鉴和参考。
Being a new type of managerial operation model, virtual enterprise has already been widely used in practice nowadays. Virtual enterprise can response to the change of market demand promptly, can reduce cost, especially, can sharply reduce R&D cost for manufacturing enterprises, therefore, can make enterprises enter global market with a high speed, realize profit co-sharing. However, this can also bring some new risk problems, which are the key factor restraining the existence and development of virtual enterprises. Thus, to analyze the main factors affecting virtual enterprise’s risk, and to evaluate risk management level of virtual enterprise, is no doubt of great practical significance.
By starting with the emerging, development and present situation analysis of virtual enterprise, this thesis systematically analyzes the procreant mechanism of virtual enterprise’s risk, the special features of the virtual enterprise’s risk and the major influence factors, the factors affecting of virtual enterprise’s risk are be identified by interpretation structure model and lucubrate them, then sets up evaluation indexes system on virtual enterprise; Secondly, the thesis sieves experts’investigate questionnaires by adapting “cluster analysis”and reduce twenty to sixteen;Thirdly, by using entropy theories and entropy coefficient methods, confirm the power weightiness of the each indexes: the change of customer’s demand is 0.308, compete risk is 0.172, credited problem is 0.164, technology leak problem is 0.032,communicate problem is 0.059,technology problem is 0.027, quality problem is 0.204, time problem is 0.034; At last, by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation the thesis qualitatively & quantitatively evaluates the overall risk level of virtual enterprise , figures out the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the highest level is 0.187; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the higher level is 0.237; the probability of virtual enterprise’s
risk in the common level is 0.427; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the lower level is 0.144; the probability of virtual enterprise’s risk in the lowest level is 0.005. By through the study mentioned above, the thesis figures out some critical problems existed in virtual enterprise’s risk management and their roots, also comes up with policies such as avoiding it’s risk; getting rid of it’s hidden risk; transferring it’s risk; separating it’s risk; leaving for personal needs the risk; setting up risk check list, etc., with an expectation to provide certain reference for virtual enterprise’s risk management.
引文
1 陈剑,冯藯东.虚拟企业构建与管理北京:清华大学出版社,2002
2 赵春明.虚拟企业.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1999
3 Goldman, Steven L, Nagel, Roger N, Preiss, Kenneth. Agile Competitors and Virtual Organizations: Strategies for Enriching the Customer. Van Nostrand Reinhold: New York, New York, 1995
4 Grenier, R. And Metes, G. Going Virtual. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, 1995
5 Guss, Connie L. Communication Flows in Virtual Teams that Enhance the Success of Projects in the Telecommunication Industry. Research Proposal, The University of Calgary Project Management Specialization, 1996 April
6 Byrne, J.A, “Has Outsourcing Gone Too Far?”Business week. April 1,1996
7 戴雪梅,王烷尘等.动态联盟实例比较研究.工业工程与管理,1999,(5):11-15
8 王惠,吴冲锋,王爱民.动态联盟合作协议的期权分析.管理工程学报,2004,(1):120-122
9 吴宪华.动态联盟的分配格局研究.系统工程,2001,(5):34-38
10 樊友平,陈静宇.公司战略联盟选择的决策方法研究.中国软科学,2000,(8):102-106
11 杨梅英.风险管理与保险管理.北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1996
12 郑子云,司徒永福.企业风险管理.北京:商务印书馆,2002
13 Chapmen, C. ,Ward, S..项目风险管理:过程,技术和洞察力.李兆玉等译.北京:电子工业出版社,2003
14 Levine, Robert. Risk Management Systems: Understanding The Need. Information Systems Management, Spring.2004, (6):161-170
15 Teneyuca, David. Organizational Leader’s Use Of Risk Management for Information Technology. Information Security Technical Report Volume. 2001,(3): 54-59
16 吴仁群,韩伯棠.期权理论在IT 项目风险管理中的应用.北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):29-33
17 张珞玲,李师贤.软件相目风险管理方法比较和研究.计算机工程,2003, (9):91-94
18 杨乃定.企业风险管理发展的新趋势.中国软科学,2002,(6):54-57
19 冯春山,吴家春.项目中主要风险的管理.预测,2002,(6):67-69
20 吴仁群.IT 项目投资期权及风险管理.北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):81-86
21 Byrne J .The virtual corporation. Business Week. February.1993.8:36-41
22 顾培亮.系统分析与协调.天津:天津大学出版,1998:171-175
23 孟凡波.敏捷虚拟企业风险衡量.商业研究,2004.10:86-88
24 Brennan M J, Schwartz E S. Evaluating natural resource investments. Journal of Business.1985, 58(2):135-157
25 冯蔚东,陈剑,赵纯均.虚拟企业中的风险管理与控制研究.管理科学学报,2001,(3):1-9
26 马庆国.管理统计---数据获取、统计原理、SPSS 工具与应用研究,北京:科学出版社,2002
27 Richaed A.Johnson, Dean W.Wichern.实用多元统计分析.陆璇,葛余博,赵衡秀,叶俊译,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
28 吴玲,任佩瑜,陈维政,贺红梅.管理系统中的熵理论及利益相关者框架下企业综合绩效的熵值评估法.软科学,2004,(1):36-39
29 邱莞华.管理决策与应用熵学.北京:机械工业出版社,2002
30 郭东强.利用熵权系数法评价企业信息化建设项目.运筹与管理,2003,(3):76-79
31 戴文站,陈杰.基于熵权法的教育质量评价方法.系统工程理论与实践,1998,(2):76-79
32 闫琨,黎涓.虚拟企业风险管理中模糊综合评判法的应用.工业工程,2004,(3):40-44
33 黄敏,杨红梅,王兴伟.基于模糊综合评制的虚拟企业风险评价.数学的实践与认识,2004,(6):45-51
34 Walton J.Whicker. Virtual enterprise: myth and reality. Journal of Control.1996.3:88-96
35 叶飞,孙东川.面向生命周期的虚拟企业风险管理研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(11):130-133
36 赵宗博.浅谈虚拟企业的生命周期与风险管理.技术经济与管理研究,2003,(3):93-94
37 陈菊红,汪应洛,孙林岩.灵捷虚拟企业科学管理.西安:西安交通大学出版社,2002.46-52,67-72,121-146
38 Troy J.Strader, Fu-Ren LIN, Michael J.Shaw. Information Infrastructure for Electronic Virtual Organization Management. Design Support Systems,1998.23:75-95
39 王硕,唐小我.虚拟企业多元化经营的风险与收益研究.运筹与管理,2002,(11):1-4
40 高晚欣,刘希宋.虚拟企业风险管理研究.哈尔滨工程大学学报,2004,(5):118-123
41 王明舜,李耀臻.虚拟企业的风险形成机理研究.山东理工大学学报,2004,(6):21-24
42 J.J.Kanet, W.Faissl, P.Mertens. Application of information technology to a virtual enterprise broker: the case of Bill Epstein. Production Economics,1999.62:23-32
43 Chesbrough H, & D.Teece. When is virtual virtuous: organizing for innovation Harvard Business Review ,1996:65-74
44 侯仁勇,胡树华.企业价值创新的风险识别及防范.科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(4):49-5
45 郑翠娟,王丰,汪贻生,罗少锋.虚拟物流风险管理研究及其发展..现代物流,2005,(3):28-30
46 张青山,曹智安.动态联盟风险的防范与控制研究.管理科学,2004,(3):8-15
47 Amaram M, Kulatilaka N. Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in An Uncertain World.Boston: Harvard Business School Press,1998
48 金锡万.管理前沿文库,企业风险控制.北京:机械工业出版社,2001
49 卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,1998
50 冯蔚东,陈剑,赵纯均.虚拟企业中的风险分析与监控.清华大学经济管理学院研究报告,2000,北京:清华大学经济管理学院
2 赵春明.虚拟企业.杭州:浙江人民出版社,1999
3 Goldman, Steven L, Nagel, Roger N, Preiss, Kenneth. Agile Competitors and Virtual Organizations: Strategies for Enriching the Customer. Van Nostrand Reinhold: New York, New York, 1995
4 Grenier, R. And Metes, G. Going Virtual. Prentice Hall: Upper Saddle River, 1995
5 Guss, Connie L. Communication Flows in Virtual Teams that Enhance the Success of Projects in the Telecommunication Industry. Research Proposal, The University of Calgary Project Management Specialization, 1996 April
6 Byrne, J.A, “Has Outsourcing Gone Too Far?”Business week. April 1,1996
7 戴雪梅,王烷尘等.动态联盟实例比较研究.工业工程与管理,1999,(5):11-15
8 王惠,吴冲锋,王爱民.动态联盟合作协议的期权分析.管理工程学报,2004,(1):120-122
9 吴宪华.动态联盟的分配格局研究.系统工程,2001,(5):34-38
10 樊友平,陈静宇.公司战略联盟选择的决策方法研究.中国软科学,2000,(8):102-106
11 杨梅英.风险管理与保险管理.北京:北京航空航天大学出版社,1996
12 郑子云,司徒永福.企业风险管理.北京:商务印书馆,2002
13 Chapmen, C. ,Ward, S..项目风险管理:过程,技术和洞察力.李兆玉等译.北京:电子工业出版社,2003
14 Levine, Robert. Risk Management Systems: Understanding The Need. Information Systems Management, Spring.2004, (6):161-170
15 Teneyuca, David. Organizational Leader’s Use Of Risk Management for Information Technology. Information Security Technical Report Volume. 2001,(3): 54-59
16 吴仁群,韩伯棠.期权理论在IT 项目风险管理中的应用.北京邮电大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):29-33
17 张珞玲,李师贤.软件相目风险管理方法比较和研究.计算机工程,2003, (9):91-94
18 杨乃定.企业风险管理发展的新趋势.中国软科学,2002,(6):54-57
19 冯春山,吴家春.项目中主要风险的管理.预测,2002,(6):67-69
20 吴仁群.IT 项目投资期权及风险管理.北京理工大学学报(社会科学版),2003,(5):81-86
21 Byrne J .The virtual corporation. Business Week. February.1993.8:36-41
22 顾培亮.系统分析与协调.天津:天津大学出版,1998:171-175
23 孟凡波.敏捷虚拟企业风险衡量.商业研究,2004.10:86-88
24 Brennan M J, Schwartz E S. Evaluating natural resource investments. Journal of Business.1985, 58(2):135-157
25 冯蔚东,陈剑,赵纯均.虚拟企业中的风险管理与控制研究.管理科学学报,2001,(3):1-9
26 马庆国.管理统计---数据获取、统计原理、SPSS 工具与应用研究,北京:科学出版社,2002
27 Richaed A.Johnson, Dean W.Wichern.实用多元统计分析.陆璇,葛余博,赵衡秀,叶俊译,北京:清华大学出版社,2000
28 吴玲,任佩瑜,陈维政,贺红梅.管理系统中的熵理论及利益相关者框架下企业综合绩效的熵值评估法.软科学,2004,(1):36-39
29 邱莞华.管理决策与应用熵学.北京:机械工业出版社,2002
30 郭东强.利用熵权系数法评价企业信息化建设项目.运筹与管理,2003,(3):76-79
31 戴文站,陈杰.基于熵权法的教育质量评价方法.系统工程理论与实践,1998,(2):76-79
32 闫琨,黎涓.虚拟企业风险管理中模糊综合评判法的应用.工业工程,2004,(3):40-44
33 黄敏,杨红梅,王兴伟.基于模糊综合评制的虚拟企业风险评价.数学的实践与认识,2004,(6):45-51
34 Walton J.Whicker. Virtual enterprise: myth and reality. Journal of Control.1996.3:88-96
35 叶飞,孙东川.面向生命周期的虚拟企业风险管理研究.科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(11):130-133
36 赵宗博.浅谈虚拟企业的生命周期与风险管理.技术经济与管理研究,2003,(3):93-94
37 陈菊红,汪应洛,孙林岩.灵捷虚拟企业科学管理.西安:西安交通大学出版社,2002.46-52,67-72,121-146
38 Troy J.Strader, Fu-Ren LIN, Michael J.Shaw. Information Infrastructure for Electronic Virtual Organization Management. Design Support Systems,1998.23:75-95
39 王硕,唐小我.虚拟企业多元化经营的风险与收益研究.运筹与管理,2002,(11):1-4
40 高晚欣,刘希宋.虚拟企业风险管理研究.哈尔滨工程大学学报,2004,(5):118-123
41 王明舜,李耀臻.虚拟企业的风险形成机理研究.山东理工大学学报,2004,(6):21-24
42 J.J.Kanet, W.Faissl, P.Mertens. Application of information technology to a virtual enterprise broker: the case of Bill Epstein. Production Economics,1999.62:23-32
43 Chesbrough H, & D.Teece. When is virtual virtuous: organizing for innovation Harvard Business Review ,1996:65-74
44 侯仁勇,胡树华.企业价值创新的风险识别及防范.科学学与科学技术管理,2004,(4):49-5
45 郑翠娟,王丰,汪贻生,罗少锋.虚拟物流风险管理研究及其发展..现代物流,2005,(3):28-30
46 张青山,曹智安.动态联盟风险的防范与控制研究.管理科学,2004,(3):8-15
47 Amaram M, Kulatilaka N. Real Options: Managing Strategic Investment in An Uncertain World.Boston: Harvard Business School Press,1998
48 金锡万.管理前沿文库,企业风险控制.北京:机械工业出版社,2001
49 卢有杰,卢家仪.项目风险管理.北京:清华大学出版社,1998
50 冯蔚东,陈剑,赵纯均.虚拟企业中的风险分析与监控.清华大学经济管理学院研究报告,2000,北京:清华大学经济管理学院
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