对转基因作物的综合评价及战略选择研究
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摘要
本文立足转基因作物发展的现状,以现今对转基因作物的主流研究为视角,对其涉及的经济、社会、产业等三个领域进行综合研究。通过层次分析法对转基因作物的效益及风险进行分析,揭示转基因作物研究所面临的经济学问题,探究其所面临的经济学问题的具体原理;通过对转基因作物的社会认知系统研究,揭示不同社会主体的认知状况及影响其认知的主要因素,并通过DEMATEL方法系统辨识影响社会认知整体水平的关键因素;通过对转基因作物产业发展的分析,利用博弈论的方法,分析转基因作物产业链中两个主体农民与政府之间的多维博弈过程。在对转基因作物经济、社会、产业三方面综合评价的基础上,提出发展我国转基因作物产业的战略政策及取向,为政府决策提供科学有效的参考。
With rapid development of genetically modified crops industry, the close attention from entire community to GMC is raising daily. Offered a comprehensive evaluation to GMC industry system from three aspects: economy, society, industry, we can learn about potential benefits and risks of GMC, cognition of every society subjects to GMC, and interrelation between industrial subjects based on GMC. Thus we can speed up the industrialization process of genetically modified technique effectively, and it also has realistic meaning to improving competitive edge of our produce, to resolve the lacking problem of agricultural resource, to promote people’s living level.
After evaluate the environmental economic benefit of GMC, we arrive at the fundamental principles of development to GMC. The conclusion is: maximizing economic benefit of GMC mustn’t be on the understanding that decreasing of environmental benefit. And we should consider about both economic benefit and environmental benefit synthetically to develop GMC reasonably. Behavioral finance analysis on GMC leads to a conclusion: government should make GMC policies according to changes in market requirement.
According to questionnaire survey, research the present situation that consumers, famers, enterprises, scientific establishments and government in Jilin province, the author obtained the first-hand information about social cognition of GMC in Jilin province. On the foundation of analyzing the effective questionnaire, the author arrived at the influencing factors about social cognition of GMC in Jilin province. The article applied the DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)method to differentiate the primary influencing factors, this article drew the conclusion: the primary influencing factors which block social cognition of genetically modified crops in Jilin Province and the logical relationship between them is that, Development level of genetically modified technique→Influence level to environment→Influence level to health→Perfection level of administration policy→Input capability to emerging industry→R & D capabilities of scientific institutions→Transforming level from achievement to merchandise→Price of GMC
After gaming analyzing to the subjects of GMC industry-famers and government, we researched 3D dynamic gaming process between famers and government under the incomplete information environment. And drew the conclusion: the famers’attitude to whether plant GMC appears homoplasy; to increase the value in GMC industry, both of government and famers should take avoiding cost loss result from policy alteration. Government plays a leading role in development of GMC industry, and influence of famers to development of GMC is almost external.
Analyzed environmental economic benefit of GMC, we arrived at the advises to develop GMC, that: to establish environmental monitoring mechanisms; to research and develop environment protecting GMC; to establish GMC evaluation indicator system; to promote people’s cognition to environmental economic benefit of GMC.
After analyzing to society cognition of GMC, arrive at policy advises promoting society cognition of GMC, that: to promote the cognition level of every subjects to GMC from multi-angle; to promote the cognition level of masses to GMC in multi-way; to complete management regulations and safety system; to give full scope to advantage of price and improve GMC product market.
With fundamental realities of our country at the present stage, by using gaming analysis to GMC industry, we arrive at particular advises of the development of GMC industry: Increase the technical input to improve innovation level of the fountainhead of GMC industry ; Advance the deep processing of genetically modified products and enlarge the market of genetically modified products; Exert the leading effect of government to mobilize enthusiasm of every aspect, and develop GMC industry jointly.
Primary researches of the thesis are:
Chapter One Exordium: Introduced the research background, meaning and overview of reaearch both home and abroad. Definite the paper’s topic, study contents, essential method and the technical route in which this article studies.
Chapter Two Definition of Basic Concept and Theoretical principle: Define the concept and extension of genetically modified crops that the text applied. And introduce the theoretical principle of this paper, which including: biotechnology economics, social cognition theory, the theory of sustainable development, System Science theory, ecological economics, behavioral finance and agriculture industry organizing game theory.
Chapter Three Analysis the potencial benefit and risk of GMC: Analyze the potential economic benefit of GMC and risk to human’s health and environment by compare GMC with nonGMC. Structure the overall merit hiberarchy model of GMC. Quantitatively evaluate the potential benefits and risk of GMC by using AHP method. Provide the foundation for people to cognize GMC from macroscopic view.
Chapter Four Economic Analysis on GMC: By using ecological economics and behavioral finance analyzed ecological economics benefit of GMC and changes of people’s behavior to GMC
Chapter Five Study on Social Cognition to GMC: Based on analysis of questionnaire survey to consumer, peasant, enterprise, scientific research organization, and government, clarify cognition to GMC of every social main part. And lead to influencing factors to the cognition to GMC of different parts of society. With the help of DEMATEL method we define the main influencing factors to GMC of whole society.
Chapter Six Game Analysis based on GMC Industry: According to formation features of agriculture industry chain, game analyzed peasent which is the main part of the industry chain. And analyze with the cost and benefit to development of GMC of government. Researched 3D dynamic gaming process between famers and government, and raise the relative factors when peasent and government keep a refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium optimal solution between them.
Chapter Seven Strategic Choice to develop GMC: Based on analysis to economy, society and industry, leads to policy choise and advise to development of GMC on our country.
Chapter Eight Summary and prospect: Summarize the paper, put forward paper’s innovations and deficiency, and set the prospect.
With rapid development of genetically modified crops industry, the close attention from entire community to GMC is raising daily. Offered a comprehensive evaluation to GMC industry system from three aspects: economy, society, industry, we can learn about potential benefits and risks of GMC, cognition of every society subjects to GMC, and interrelation between industrial subjects based on GMC. Thus we can speed up the industrialization process of genetically modified technique effectively, and it also has realistic meaning to improving competitive edge of our produce, to resolve the lacking problem of agricultural resource, to promote people’s living level.
After evaluate the environmental economic benefit of GMC, we arrive at the fundamental principles of development to GMC. The conclusion is: maximizing economic benefit of GMC mustn’t be on the understanding that decreasing of environmental benefit. And we should consider about both economic benefit and environmental benefit synthetically to develop GMC reasonably. Behavioral finance analysis on GMC leads to a conclusion: government should make GMC policies according to changes in market requirement.
According to questionnaire survey, research the present situation that consumers, famers, enterprises, scientific establishments and government in Jilin province, the author obtained the first-hand information about social cognition of GMC in Jilin province. On the foundation of analyzing the effective questionnaire, the author arrived at the influencing factors about social cognition of GMC in Jilin province. The article applied the DEMATEL(Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory)method to differentiate the primary influencing factors, this article drew the conclusion: the primary influencing factors which block social cognition of genetically modified crops in Jilin Province and the logical relationship between them is that, Development level of genetically modified technique→Influence level to environment→Influence level to health→Perfection level of administration policy→Input capability to emerging industry→R & D capabilities of scientific institutions→Transforming level from achievement to merchandise→Price of GMC
After gaming analyzing to the subjects of GMC industry-famers and government, we researched 3D dynamic gaming process between famers and government under the incomplete information environment. And drew the conclusion: the famers’attitude to whether plant GMC appears homoplasy; to increase the value in GMC industry, both of government and famers should take avoiding cost loss result from policy alteration. Government plays a leading role in development of GMC industry, and influence of famers to development of GMC is almost external.
Analyzed environmental economic benefit of GMC, we arrived at the advises to develop GMC, that: to establish environmental monitoring mechanisms; to research and develop environment protecting GMC; to establish GMC evaluation indicator system; to promote people’s cognition to environmental economic benefit of GMC.
After analyzing to society cognition of GMC, arrive at policy advises promoting society cognition of GMC, that: to promote the cognition level of every subjects to GMC from multi-angle; to promote the cognition level of masses to GMC in multi-way; to complete management regulations and safety system; to give full scope to advantage of price and improve GMC product market.
With fundamental realities of our country at the present stage, by using gaming analysis to GMC industry, we arrive at particular advises of the development of GMC industry: Increase the technical input to improve innovation level of the fountainhead of GMC industry ; Advance the deep processing of genetically modified products and enlarge the market of genetically modified products; Exert the leading effect of government to mobilize enthusiasm of every aspect, and develop GMC industry jointly.
Primary researches of the thesis are:
Chapter One Exordium: Introduced the research background, meaning and overview of reaearch both home and abroad. Definite the paper’s topic, study contents, essential method and the technical route in which this article studies.
Chapter Two Definition of Basic Concept and Theoretical principle: Define the concept and extension of genetically modified crops that the text applied. And introduce the theoretical principle of this paper, which including: biotechnology economics, social cognition theory, the theory of sustainable development, System Science theory, ecological economics, behavioral finance and agriculture industry organizing game theory.
Chapter Three Analysis the potencial benefit and risk of GMC: Analyze the potential economic benefit of GMC and risk to human’s health and environment by compare GMC with nonGMC. Structure the overall merit hiberarchy model of GMC. Quantitatively evaluate the potential benefits and risk of GMC by using AHP method. Provide the foundation for people to cognize GMC from macroscopic view.
Chapter Four Economic Analysis on GMC: By using ecological economics and behavioral finance analyzed ecological economics benefit of GMC and changes of people’s behavior to GMC
Chapter Five Study on Social Cognition to GMC: Based on analysis of questionnaire survey to consumer, peasant, enterprise, scientific research organization, and government, clarify cognition to GMC of every social main part. And lead to influencing factors to the cognition to GMC of different parts of society. With the help of DEMATEL method we define the main influencing factors to GMC of whole society.
Chapter Six Game Analysis based on GMC Industry: According to formation features of agriculture industry chain, game analyzed peasent which is the main part of the industry chain. And analyze with the cost and benefit to development of GMC of government. Researched 3D dynamic gaming process between famers and government, and raise the relative factors when peasent and government keep a refined Bayesian Nash equilibrium optimal solution between them.
Chapter Seven Strategic Choice to develop GMC: Based on analysis to economy, society and industry, leads to policy choise and advise to development of GMC on our country.
Chapter Eight Summary and prospect: Summarize the paper, put forward paper’s innovations and deficiency, and set the prospect.
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