水量调度决策支持系统中的数据挖掘应用研究
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摘要
在中国,旱涝一直是常见的自然灾害。尤其是在南方大部分地区,每当进入汛期,强降雨会导致多条多条河流发生较大或特大洪水,使当地群众生命和财产受到巨大威胁；但进入旱期,大面积的河流干涸,使当地的农作物和人民基本生活得不到保证,给当地的经济带来重大损失。流域水量的实时调度也越来越重要。
本课题在以上的背景下,以江西省内抚河流域为参考对象,逐步引出并阐述解决当地旱涝的方法,智能的水量调度系统。
流域水量调度是在既定的水资源管理体制和分配方式下,本着公平、高效和可持续发展的原则,将流域内有限的水资源实时分配到各用水单元,达到生活、生产和生态等各种用水需求的有序满足。
首先,本文概括介绍了江西抚河流域的水文环境和水量调度系统的历史和现状,在深入调查和分析抚河水量调度现状的基础上,分析了目前抚河流域水文情况存在的供水与需求的主要问题。得出先进的水量调度系统可以对多目标优化,并能实现随机,动态和智能化过程控制,从而实现可持续发展,该调度系统可以很好的解决抚河流域旱涝问题。
接着,确定水量调度系统的优越性后,以抚河流域的水文环境为对象,采集有效的数据。结合目前抚河水量调度需要,根据水库调度理论和系统科学的理论建立满足水量调度辅助决策系统模型。将该系统以功能为单位划分为5类模型：来水预报模型；需水模型；方案匹配模型；水量分配模型。
随着确定好整个系统框架,对不同的模型,逐个进行分析。为了能通过数据来解决非线性问题,并且能最大精度的模拟现实模型,本文决定采用时间序列的方法,来度量水库调度方案的相似性。为了最大限度利用数据库中的历史数据,建立了方案匹配模型,从方案库中查找到相似度最高的方案,为方案编制提供参考方案。
最后以抚河流域一段时间的水文环境为例,通过时间序列相似性,对数据库中的数据进行度量,并根据度量值,数据库中寻找出最适合当前条件的水库调度方法。
本论文主要研究了数据分析在水利方面的应用。通过数据分析,搭建了智能的水量调度系统。通过该系统可以有效的缓解抚河流域当地的旱涝自然灾害。并成功的开发了在线江西省抚河流域水量调度辅助决策平台,为科研人员更好的管理和解决当地的水文问题。
In China, droughts and floods are common natural disasters. Especially in most parts of the South, whenever entered the flood season, heavy rainfall will lead to many rivers in large or catastrophic flood, so that local people's lives and property by a huge threat; but the drought period, large areas of rivers drying up, local crops and their basic living conditions can not be guaranteed to bring heavy losses to the local economy. Real-time scheduling of the basin water is also increasingly important.
This subject in the above context, the Fuhe River in Jiangxi Province as a reference object, and gradually leads and described a method to solve the local droughts, water smart scheduling system.
Basin water regulation established water resources management system and methods of distribution, the principle of fair, efficient and sustainable development, the basin's limited water resources in real time allocated to water unit to achieve the life, production and ecological ordered to meet the water demand.
First, this paper provides an overview of the history and current status of the environment of of Jiangxi Nadekawa watershed hydrology and water regulation system, Fuhe River hydrology, water supply and demand on the basis of in-depth investigation and analysis of the status quo of the Fuhe water scheduling the main problem. Obtained advanced water regulation system on the multi-objective optimization, and random, dynamic and intelligent process control, in order to achieve sustainable development, the scheduling system can solve the Fuhe River drought and flood problems. Then, to determine the superiority of the water regulation system, Fuhe River hydrological environment, collecting valid data. The combination of the Fuhe water management needs, the establishment of the reservoir operation theory and the theory of systems science to meet the water scheduling decision support system model. The system to function as a unit is divided into five-class model: runoff forecasting model; water demand model; program matching model; water allocation model.
To determine the framework of the entire system on the different models, one by one. In order to pass the data to solve nonlinear problems, the simulation model of reality can be the greatest accuracy, the paper decided to adopt the methods of time series to measure the similarity of the reservoir operation scheme. Established in order to maximize the use of historical data in the database, the matching model of the program, find the most similar program from the program library, the reference scenario for the programming.
Finally some time to Fuhe River hydrological environment, for example, to measure the similarity in time series data in the database, and according to the measure, the database to find out the most suitable for the current conditions of reservoir operation method.
The paper combines the Fuhe water scheduling water diversion requirements, Fuhe River hydrological reservoir operation theory and system theory, and give full consideration to the current the Fuhe water supply and demand contradiction, Jiangxi Province, water conservancy scheduling decision support system model, and model results were compared. Model, according to the demand for water regulation, the development of the practicality, reliability, advanced, open, scalable, feature-rich, easy to operate and maintain the the Fuhe upstream cascade reservoirs scheduling system. For researchers to better manage and resolve the problem of local hydrology.
本课题在以上的背景下,以江西省内抚河流域为参考对象,逐步引出并阐述解决当地旱涝的方法,智能的水量调度系统。
流域水量调度是在既定的水资源管理体制和分配方式下,本着公平、高效和可持续发展的原则,将流域内有限的水资源实时分配到各用水单元,达到生活、生产和生态等各种用水需求的有序满足。
首先,本文概括介绍了江西抚河流域的水文环境和水量调度系统的历史和现状,在深入调查和分析抚河水量调度现状的基础上,分析了目前抚河流域水文情况存在的供水与需求的主要问题。得出先进的水量调度系统可以对多目标优化,并能实现随机,动态和智能化过程控制,从而实现可持续发展,该调度系统可以很好的解决抚河流域旱涝问题。
接着,确定水量调度系统的优越性后,以抚河流域的水文环境为对象,采集有效的数据。结合目前抚河水量调度需要,根据水库调度理论和系统科学的理论建立满足水量调度辅助决策系统模型。将该系统以功能为单位划分为5类模型：来水预报模型；需水模型；方案匹配模型；水量分配模型。
随着确定好整个系统框架,对不同的模型,逐个进行分析。为了能通过数据来解决非线性问题,并且能最大精度的模拟现实模型,本文决定采用时间序列的方法,来度量水库调度方案的相似性。为了最大限度利用数据库中的历史数据,建立了方案匹配模型,从方案库中查找到相似度最高的方案,为方案编制提供参考方案。
最后以抚河流域一段时间的水文环境为例,通过时间序列相似性,对数据库中的数据进行度量,并根据度量值,数据库中寻找出最适合当前条件的水库调度方法。
本论文主要研究了数据分析在水利方面的应用。通过数据分析,搭建了智能的水量调度系统。通过该系统可以有效的缓解抚河流域当地的旱涝自然灾害。并成功的开发了在线江西省抚河流域水量调度辅助决策平台,为科研人员更好的管理和解决当地的水文问题。
In China, droughts and floods are common natural disasters. Especially in most parts of the South, whenever entered the flood season, heavy rainfall will lead to many rivers in large or catastrophic flood, so that local people's lives and property by a huge threat; but the drought period, large areas of rivers drying up, local crops and their basic living conditions can not be guaranteed to bring heavy losses to the local economy. Real-time scheduling of the basin water is also increasingly important.
This subject in the above context, the Fuhe River in Jiangxi Province as a reference object, and gradually leads and described a method to solve the local droughts, water smart scheduling system.
Basin water regulation established water resources management system and methods of distribution, the principle of fair, efficient and sustainable development, the basin's limited water resources in real time allocated to water unit to achieve the life, production and ecological ordered to meet the water demand.
First, this paper provides an overview of the history and current status of the environment of of Jiangxi Nadekawa watershed hydrology and water regulation system, Fuhe River hydrology, water supply and demand on the basis of in-depth investigation and analysis of the status quo of the Fuhe water scheduling the main problem. Obtained advanced water regulation system on the multi-objective optimization, and random, dynamic and intelligent process control, in order to achieve sustainable development, the scheduling system can solve the Fuhe River drought and flood problems. Then, to determine the superiority of the water regulation system, Fuhe River hydrological environment, collecting valid data. The combination of the Fuhe water management needs, the establishment of the reservoir operation theory and the theory of systems science to meet the water scheduling decision support system model. The system to function as a unit is divided into five-class model: runoff forecasting model; water demand model; program matching model; water allocation model.
To determine the framework of the entire system on the different models, one by one. In order to pass the data to solve nonlinear problems, the simulation model of reality can be the greatest accuracy, the paper decided to adopt the methods of time series to measure the similarity of the reservoir operation scheme. Established in order to maximize the use of historical data in the database, the matching model of the program, find the most similar program from the program library, the reference scenario for the programming.
Finally some time to Fuhe River hydrological environment, for example, to measure the similarity in time series data in the database, and according to the measure, the database to find out the most suitable for the current conditions of reservoir operation method.
The paper combines the Fuhe water scheduling water diversion requirements, Fuhe River hydrological reservoir operation theory and system theory, and give full consideration to the current the Fuhe water supply and demand contradiction, Jiangxi Province, water conservancy scheduling decision support system model, and model results were compared. Model, according to the demand for water regulation, the development of the practicality, reliability, advanced, open, scalable, feature-rich, easy to operate and maintain the the Fuhe upstream cascade reservoirs scheduling system. For researchers to better manage and resolve the problem of local hydrology.
引文
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