区域物流中心选址模型研究
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摘要
随着当今世界经济一体化进程的加快,世界各国及地区间的经济活动越来越频繁。而作为经济活动载体的物流的发展程度也将决定区域经济发展的速度,因此物流业的发展也日益受到各国政府的重视和关注。加快发展现代物流业,对于拓展新的经济增长空间,提高区域经济的国际化、信息化、市场化水平具有十分重要的意义。而区域物流中心的布局规划是区域物流发展的重要前提和基础,所以本文对区域物流中心的布局规划模型进行研究。
本文的主要工作体现在以下几个方面：
1、论文第一部分分析论文的研究背景。提出了论文研究的意义。然后,对国内外的研究成果进行总结,并给出了论文的研究内容以及主体框架。
2、论文的第二部分介绍了区域物流中心应具备的特征以及区域物流中心的基本类型,分析了区域物流中心在城市发展中的重要作用,详细说明了区域物流中心的基本功能及增值服务的基本形式,介绍了区域物流中心的布局形态,并提出了区域物流中心布局的重要原则。
3、论文的第三部分对区域物流需求进行了预测,在利用传统的预测方法进行预测的基础上,建立了集对分析聚类预测及灰色预测模型。并结合案例对区域物流及各城市的物流的需求量作了预测,结合定性分析给出了区域物流中心选址建议。
4、论文的第四部分根据预测结果,结合物流中心布局的其它影响因素指标,建立了物流中心选址布局多种模型,并结合案例对模型进行求解,最后对模型结果进行定性分析,给出区域物流中心选址结果,并验证模型的有效性。
5、论文的第五部分总结研究结论,给出该论文的创新点,并提出需要进一步研究的问题
Nowadays, with the acceleration of the process of economic integration, the economic activities among countries and districts are more and more frequent. The development of logistics, the carrier of economic activities, will decide the speed of regional economic development. Therefore, governments are attaching importance to and paying attention to the development of logistics.To speed up the progress of modern logistics is vital to extend the increasing space of new economy, and to improve the internationalization, information process and market process of regional economy. The layout of regional logistics center is the important precondition and basis of regional logistics development. Thus, the paper carries out research on the layout model of regional logistics center.
The thread of this paper is as follows:
1.The first part analyzes its research background, brings forward its research meaning, sums up domestic and foreign research results, and presents its research content as well as its main framework.
2.The second part of the paper introduces the features and basic types of regional logistics center, analyzes the important role regional logistics center plays in city development, explicates the basic functions of regional logistics center and the basic forms of increment service, clarifies the layout configuration of regional logistics center, and presents the important principle of regional logistics center layout.
3.The third part of the paper forecasts the need of regional logistics.On the basis of using traditional forecasting method, the paper proposes set pair analysis cluster forecast model and gray forecast model.Besides, combining cases, it forecasts the demand quantity of regional logistics and city logistics; combining qualitative analysis, it makes suggestion for choosing the location of regional logistics center.
4.According to the forecast results, and by combining other influence factor indexes of logistics center layout, the fourth part of the paper presents manifold models of logistics center location choosing layout. And according to the cases, it explains the model, makes qualitative analysis on the result of the model,provides the location choosing result of regional logistics center, and validates the validity of the model.
5.The fifth part of the paper sums up research conclusion, points out the innovation parts of it, and puts forward the questions that need further study.
本文的主要工作体现在以下几个方面：
1、论文第一部分分析论文的研究背景。提出了论文研究的意义。然后,对国内外的研究成果进行总结,并给出了论文的研究内容以及主体框架。
2、论文的第二部分介绍了区域物流中心应具备的特征以及区域物流中心的基本类型,分析了区域物流中心在城市发展中的重要作用,详细说明了区域物流中心的基本功能及增值服务的基本形式,介绍了区域物流中心的布局形态,并提出了区域物流中心布局的重要原则。
3、论文的第三部分对区域物流需求进行了预测,在利用传统的预测方法进行预测的基础上,建立了集对分析聚类预测及灰色预测模型。并结合案例对区域物流及各城市的物流的需求量作了预测,结合定性分析给出了区域物流中心选址建议。
4、论文的第四部分根据预测结果,结合物流中心布局的其它影响因素指标,建立了物流中心选址布局多种模型,并结合案例对模型进行求解,最后对模型结果进行定性分析,给出区域物流中心选址结果,并验证模型的有效性。
5、论文的第五部分总结研究结论,给出该论文的创新点,并提出需要进一步研究的问题
Nowadays, with the acceleration of the process of economic integration, the economic activities among countries and districts are more and more frequent. The development of logistics, the carrier of economic activities, will decide the speed of regional economic development. Therefore, governments are attaching importance to and paying attention to the development of logistics.To speed up the progress of modern logistics is vital to extend the increasing space of new economy, and to improve the internationalization, information process and market process of regional economy. The layout of regional logistics center is the important precondition and basis of regional logistics development. Thus, the paper carries out research on the layout model of regional logistics center.
The thread of this paper is as follows:
1.The first part analyzes its research background, brings forward its research meaning, sums up domestic and foreign research results, and presents its research content as well as its main framework.
2.The second part of the paper introduces the features and basic types of regional logistics center, analyzes the important role regional logistics center plays in city development, explicates the basic functions of regional logistics center and the basic forms of increment service, clarifies the layout configuration of regional logistics center, and presents the important principle of regional logistics center layout.
3.The third part of the paper forecasts the need of regional logistics.On the basis of using traditional forecasting method, the paper proposes set pair analysis cluster forecast model and gray forecast model.Besides, combining cases, it forecasts the demand quantity of regional logistics and city logistics; combining qualitative analysis, it makes suggestion for choosing the location of regional logistics center.
4.According to the forecast results, and by combining other influence factor indexes of logistics center layout, the fourth part of the paper presents manifold models of logistics center location choosing layout. And according to the cases, it explains the model, makes qualitative analysis on the result of the model,provides the location choosing result of regional logistics center, and validates the validity of the model.
5.The fifth part of the paper sums up research conclusion, points out the innovation parts of it, and puts forward the questions that need further study.
引文
1.董千里.高级物流学[M],北京：人民交通出版社,2006
2.刘文茹,赵启兰,王耀球.论区域性物流中心的建设[M],中国西部现代物流研讨会,2001
3.冯耕中.现代物流与供应链管理[M],西安：西安交通大学出版社,2003
4.戢守峰.物流管理新论[M],北京：科学出板社,2004
5.张艳霞,马丽娟.物流中心选址问题研究现状[J],商业研究,2005,10：157-158
6.马丽娟.物流中心选址问题的数学方法研究[J],物流技术,2004,5：74-75
7.Eiichi Taniguchi, Michihiko Noritake, Tadashi Yamada. Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals [J], Transportation Research Part E,1999,35(2):207-222.
8.Cornelia D,Richard G.The Design of Logistics Organizations [J], Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review,1998,34(1):25-37.
9.Theodore P S, Patrick A T. Logistics Strategy, Organizational Design, and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment [J], Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review, 1998,34(1):75-86.
10.Tae H O, Jong-Hun Park. Multinational firms' location preference for regional distribution centers: focus on the Northeast Asian region [J],2004,40(2):101-121.
11.冯耕中.我国现代物流研究的现状与展望[J],科学学与科学技术管理,2002,5：65-68
12.刘小丽,张江宇.我国交通运输发展对物流的若干影响[J],中国流通经济,2007,3：12-14
13.黄立君,陈立.中国现代物流业的现状及发展对策[J],物流技术,2006,5：57-59
14.徐兴虎.浅谈中国物流业的现状与发展趋势[J].市场周刊.,2005,S3：22-23
15.叶怀珍.现代物流学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2003
16.于淼.物流前沿理论与应用刍议[J],商业研究,2005,10：102-105
17.冯耕中.物流配送中心规划与设计[M],西安：西安交通大学出版社,2003
18.刘志学.现代物流手册[M],北京：中国物资出版社,2001
19.宋华,胡左浩.现代物流与供应链管理[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2001
20.徐文静.物流战略规划与模式[M],北京：机械工业出版社,2002
21.赵蕾,林炳耀.现代物流中心规划建设的探索与研究[J],城市规划汇刊,2001,17(4)：4-8
22.汝宜红,物流学[M],北京：中国铁道出版社,2003
23.叶怀珍.现代物流学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2003
24.崔介何.物流学概论[M],北京：中国计划出版社,1997
25.牛慧恩,陈璟.国外物流中心建设的一些经验和做法[J],城市规划会刊,2000,2：6-15
26.李旭宏,胡文友,毛海军.区域物流中心规划方法[J],交通运输工程学报,2002,2(1)：85-87
27.历以宁.西方经济学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2000
28.王莉.物流学导论[M],北京：中国铁道出版社,1997
29.刘波,孙林岩.基于先进制造模式的物流需求流动领导[J]，工业工程,1999,2(3)：37-39
30.王战权,杨东援.现代物流业发展系统规划研究[J],西安公路交通大学学报,2001,21(3)：61-64
31.王严庆,戢守峰,李英业,王化冰,李峰；沈阳市现代物流发展规划[D],沈阳：沈阳市发改委,2006
32.徐国祥.统计预测和决策[M],上海：复旦大学出版社,1994
33.赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M],杭州：浙江科学技术出版社,2000
34.高洁.可拓聚类预测方法及其在邮电业务总量预测中的应用[J],系统工程,2000,18(3)：73-77
35.高洁,盛昭瀚.集对分析聚类预测法及其应用[J],系统工程学报,2002,17(5)：458-462
36.宋中民.灰色系统的分离建模方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,18(5)：103-107
37.张怡,魏勇,熊常伟.灰色模型GM(1,1)一种新优化方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,2007,20(4)：141-146
38.刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,1999
39.邓聚龙.灰色系统(社会·经济)[M],北京：国防工业出版社,1985
40.郑勋,杨家其.配送中心选址理论原则与优化方法[J],交通科技,2001,19(6)：1-7
41.胡怀邦,郝渊晓.现代物流管理[M],广州：中山大学出版社,2001
42.杨忠振,陆化普.从供给质量及环境持续性的观点来微观分析物流中心布局研究[J],公路交通科技,2001,2：2-9
43.万杰,关志华.遗传算法在电子商务配送中心布局中的应用[J],河北工业大学学报,2000,15(4)：26-29
44.Fernando G L, David E G.The parameter-less genetic algorithm in practice [J], Information Sciences, 2004,167(1-4):217-232.
45.James F Campbell. Locating transportation terminals to serve an expanding demand [J], Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,1990,24(3):173-192.
46.George P. Cosmetatos. Cobham's model on nonpreemptive multi-server queueing systems:A heuristic method for its generalization [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1977,1(4):262-264
47.王战权,杨东援.配送中心选址的遗传算法研究[J],物流技术,2001,4(3)：11-14
48.Drezner Z, Jeffery Guyse. Application of decision analysis techniques to the Weber facility location problem [J], European Journal of Operational Research 1999,116(1):69-79
49.Linda K N, Mark A T. A two-echelon inventory allocation and distribution center location analysis [J], Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2001,37(6):425-441.
50.周明,孙树栋.遗传算法原理及应用[M],北京：国防工业出版社,2001
51.肖光进.多因素决策的模糊评价模型[J],统计与决策,2007,7(9)：12-13
52.陈珽.决策分析,北京：科学出版社[M],1987
53.Ying-Ming Wang, Taha M S. A comparison of neural network, evidential reasoning and multiple regression analysis in modeling bridge risks [J],Expert Systems with Applications,2007,32(2): 336-348.
54.Domonkos Tikk, Laszlo T K, Tamas D G. A survey on universal approximation and its limits in soft computing techniques [J], International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2003,33(2):185-202.
55.Ozden U, Ezgi Aktar D. An integrated multi-objective decision-making process for multi-period lot-sizing with supplier selection [J], Omega,2008,36(4):509-521.
56.Jian-Bo Yang. Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under uncertainties [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2001,131(1):31-61.
57.房毅.基于离差最大化决策法原理上海中药产业在全国的定位[J],华东经济管理,2001,5(1)：15-16
58.徐泽水.多属性决策的两种方差最大化方法[J],管理工程学报,2001,2(2)：11-13
59.岳兵,傅红娟.基于样条逼近的评价方法研究[J],系统工程学报,2002,17(3)：261-265
60.吕锋.崔晓辉,多目标灰色关联投影法及其应用[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,(1)：103-107
2.刘文茹,赵启兰,王耀球.论区域性物流中心的建设[M],中国西部现代物流研讨会,2001
3.冯耕中.现代物流与供应链管理[M],西安：西安交通大学出版社,2003
4.戢守峰.物流管理新论[M],北京：科学出板社,2004
5.张艳霞,马丽娟.物流中心选址问题研究现状[J],商业研究,2005,10：157-158
6.马丽娟.物流中心选址问题的数学方法研究[J],物流技术,2004,5：74-75
7.Eiichi Taniguchi, Michihiko Noritake, Tadashi Yamada. Optimal size and location planning of public logistics terminals [J], Transportation Research Part E,1999,35(2):207-222.
8.Cornelia D,Richard G.The Design of Logistics Organizations [J], Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review,1998,34(1):25-37.
9.Theodore P S, Patrick A T. Logistics Strategy, Organizational Design, and Performance in a Cross-Border Environment [J], Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review, 1998,34(1):75-86.
10.Tae H O, Jong-Hun Park. Multinational firms' location preference for regional distribution centers: focus on the Northeast Asian region [J],2004,40(2):101-121.
11.冯耕中.我国现代物流研究的现状与展望[J],科学学与科学技术管理,2002,5：65-68
12.刘小丽,张江宇.我国交通运输发展对物流的若干影响[J],中国流通经济,2007,3：12-14
13.黄立君,陈立.中国现代物流业的现状及发展对策[J],物流技术,2006,5：57-59
14.徐兴虎.浅谈中国物流业的现状与发展趋势[J].市场周刊.,2005,S3：22-23
15.叶怀珍.现代物流学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2003
16.于淼.物流前沿理论与应用刍议[J],商业研究,2005,10：102-105
17.冯耕中.物流配送中心规划与设计[M],西安：西安交通大学出版社,2003
18.刘志学.现代物流手册[M],北京：中国物资出版社,2001
19.宋华,胡左浩.现代物流与供应链管理[M],北京：经济管理出版社,2001
20.徐文静.物流战略规划与模式[M],北京：机械工业出版社,2002
21.赵蕾,林炳耀.现代物流中心规划建设的探索与研究[J],城市规划汇刊,2001,17(4)：4-8
22.汝宜红,物流学[M],北京：中国铁道出版社,2003
23.叶怀珍.现代物流学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2003
24.崔介何.物流学概论[M],北京：中国计划出版社,1997
25.牛慧恩,陈璟.国外物流中心建设的一些经验和做法[J],城市规划会刊,2000,2：6-15
26.李旭宏,胡文友,毛海军.区域物流中心规划方法[J],交通运输工程学报,2002,2(1)：85-87
27.历以宁.西方经济学[M],北京：高等教育出版社,2000
28.王莉.物流学导论[M],北京：中国铁道出版社,1997
29.刘波,孙林岩.基于先进制造模式的物流需求流动领导[J]，工业工程,1999,2(3)：37-39
30.王战权,杨东援.现代物流业发展系统规划研究[J],西安公路交通大学学报,2001,21(3)：61-64
31.王严庆,戢守峰,李英业,王化冰,李峰；沈阳市现代物流发展规划[D],沈阳：沈阳市发改委,2006
32.徐国祥.统计预测和决策[M],上海：复旦大学出版社,1994
33.赵克勤.集对分析及其初步应用[M],杭州：浙江科学技术出版社,2000
34.高洁.可拓聚类预测方法及其在邮电业务总量预测中的应用[J],系统工程,2000,18(3)：73-77
35.高洁,盛昭瀚.集对分析聚类预测法及其应用[J],系统工程学报,2002,17(5)：458-462
36.宋中民.灰色系统的分离建模方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,2002,18(5)：103-107
37.张怡,魏勇,熊常伟.灰色模型GM(1,1)一种新优化方法[J],系统工程理论与实践,2007,20(4)：141-146
38.刘思峰,郭天榜,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,1999
39.邓聚龙.灰色系统(社会·经济)[M],北京：国防工业出版社,1985
40.郑勋,杨家其.配送中心选址理论原则与优化方法[J],交通科技,2001,19(6)：1-7
41.胡怀邦,郝渊晓.现代物流管理[M],广州：中山大学出版社,2001
42.杨忠振,陆化普.从供给质量及环境持续性的观点来微观分析物流中心布局研究[J],公路交通科技,2001,2：2-9
43.万杰,关志华.遗传算法在电子商务配送中心布局中的应用[J],河北工业大学学报,2000,15(4)：26-29
44.Fernando G L, David E G.The parameter-less genetic algorithm in practice [J], Information Sciences, 2004,167(1-4):217-232.
45.James F Campbell. Locating transportation terminals to serve an expanding demand [J], Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,1990,24(3):173-192.
46.George P. Cosmetatos. Cobham's model on nonpreemptive multi-server queueing systems:A heuristic method for its generalization [J], European Journal of Operational Research,1977,1(4):262-264
47.王战权,杨东援.配送中心选址的遗传算法研究[J],物流技术,2001,4(3)：11-14
48.Drezner Z, Jeffery Guyse. Application of decision analysis techniques to the Weber facility location problem [J], European Journal of Operational Research 1999,116(1):69-79
49.Linda K N, Mark A T. A two-echelon inventory allocation and distribution center location analysis [J], Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2001,37(6):425-441.
50.周明,孙树栋.遗传算法原理及应用[M],北京：国防工业出版社,2001
51.肖光进.多因素决策的模糊评价模型[J],统计与决策,2007,7(9)：12-13
52.陈珽.决策分析,北京：科学出版社[M],1987
53.Ying-Ming Wang, Taha M S. A comparison of neural network, evidential reasoning and multiple regression analysis in modeling bridge risks [J],Expert Systems with Applications,2007,32(2): 336-348.
54.Domonkos Tikk, Laszlo T K, Tamas D G. A survey on universal approximation and its limits in soft computing techniques [J], International Journal of Approximate Reasoning,2003,33(2):185-202.
55.Ozden U, Ezgi Aktar D. An integrated multi-objective decision-making process for multi-period lot-sizing with supplier selection [J], Omega,2008,36(4):509-521.
56.Jian-Bo Yang. Rule and utility based evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under uncertainties [J], European Journal of Operational Research,2001,131(1):31-61.
57.房毅.基于离差最大化决策法原理上海中药产业在全国的定位[J],华东经济管理,2001,5(1)：15-16
58.徐泽水.多属性决策的两种方差最大化方法[J],管理工程学报,2001,2(2)：11-13
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