泥石流灾变控制与模型化分析方法
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摘要
泥石流减灾主要遵循“疏导、拦挡、排导”等灾前防御理念,但分析方法体系尚不完善,有些方法偏于经验性。若能够为泥石流灾前防御及灾后响应备灾等主动式减灾提供理论分析模型,将有助于推行主动式减灾,更好地实现“防止灾害于发生之前,减少损失于发生之后”。围绕泥石流减灾的模型化分析问题,依托雅泸高速公路的泥石流减灾项目,以及M8.0汶川地震和M9.0东日本地震的泥石流、碎屑流等灾害的科学考察项目,探讨更为规范的、定量化程度更高的、适合工程应用的泥石流减灾分析模型。主要研究工作和成果如下：
(1)采用系统论和控制论的模型概念和方法,规范化泥石流减灾分析模型的建立,形成了泥石流减灾分析的一些基本模型,涉及泥石流的灾害损失预测和灾情估测、减灾效果预测、减灾方案优化问题；
(2)泥石流灾害损失计算模型的研究中,类比材料破坏的强度条件公式,建立了泥石流灾变损失与灾变影响因素的关系表达式,即泥石流灾变模型。该模型从理论上验证了风险模型中危险性与易损性相乘关系的合理性,同时揭示了承灾区场地条件对泥石流灾变风险的影响作用,能够用于风险预测和灾情估测；
(3)考虑泥石流减灾措施对灾变影响因素的调节效果,建立了泥石流灾变控制模型,并在数学规划方法的框架下,提出了泥石流灾变控制优化分析模型、基本灾变控制模式,以及可行方案集分析方法,为泥石流减灾效果分析、减灾方案的提出及优化提供了一条较为便利的理论途径；
(4)在泥石流减灾分析的基础理论问题上,探讨了泥石流启动现象和阻力规律,指出了泥石流启动与运动的相关性,并将泥石流启动与运动作为整体考虑,推导了基于动量守恒的泥石流运动糙率公式,为糙率系数的确定提供了一种较为客观的理论方法。
The concept for debris hazard mitigation mainly follows the pre-disaster prevention patterns of unblocking, inception, and drainage, etc. The analytical methods are not systematic, and some of those are relatively empirical, however. If it is possible to provide theoretical analysis models for the active debris hazard mitigation like pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster responding preparation, it would contribute to implement active hazard mitigation, and achieve the target of "prevent disaster before it happens, and reduce the loss after it happens" more effectively. Around the issues of modeling analysis for debris flow hazard mitigation, relying on the research project of debris flow hazard mitigation in Ya-Lu highway and the scientific research projects aiming at the disasters of debris flow and rock avalanche in the M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake and the M9.0 East Japan Earthquake, this paper discussed a series of analysis models for debris flow hazard mitigation, aimin at more normative, quantified and engineering adaptable. The main research work and achievements are as follows:
(1) With the model concepts and methods of System Theory and Cybernetics, this paper normalized the establishment of analysis models in debris flow hazard mitigation, in which a basic model system are proposed as a result, concerning about the issues of debris flow's hazard loss prediction, hazard status estimation, mitigation effect prediction and mitigation program optimization;
(2) In the research on the calculating model of debris flow's hazard losses, this paper established an expression of the relation between debris flow's hazard losses and hazard influencing factors by analogizing the strength condition formula of material failure. The expression was called as the debris flow hazard-evolution model. This model testified the rationality of multiplication between hazard and vulnerability in the risk analysis model theoretically, and revealed the influence to the hazard risk of debris flow by the ground condition in hazard bearing regions. The model can be used both in the risk prediction and hazard status estimation;
(3) In the view of the regulating effects of debris flow's hazard mitigation measures towards the hazard influencing factors, this paper established the hazard-evolution control model for debris flow, and proposed optimizing analysis model for debris flow's hazard-evolution control and basic pattern for hazard-evolution control as well as the analysis method of feasible program set under the framework of mathematic planning method, which provided a relatively convenient theoretical approach for the analysis in debris flow's hazard mitigation effects and the propose and optimization of mitigation program;
(4) For the basic theoretical issue of debris flow's hazard mitigation analysis, this paper discussed the triggering phenomena and resistance laws of debris flow, and pointed out the relativity between debris flow's triggering and moving. Through taking debris flow'triggering and moving an entirety into consideration, a formula for debris flow rough ratio calculation based on the law of conservation of momentum was deduced in this paper, which provided a more objective theoretical method for establishing the rough ratio coefficient.
(1)采用系统论和控制论的模型概念和方法,规范化泥石流减灾分析模型的建立,形成了泥石流减灾分析的一些基本模型,涉及泥石流的灾害损失预测和灾情估测、减灾效果预测、减灾方案优化问题；
(2)泥石流灾害损失计算模型的研究中,类比材料破坏的强度条件公式,建立了泥石流灾变损失与灾变影响因素的关系表达式,即泥石流灾变模型。该模型从理论上验证了风险模型中危险性与易损性相乘关系的合理性,同时揭示了承灾区场地条件对泥石流灾变风险的影响作用,能够用于风险预测和灾情估测；
(3)考虑泥石流减灾措施对灾变影响因素的调节效果,建立了泥石流灾变控制模型,并在数学规划方法的框架下,提出了泥石流灾变控制优化分析模型、基本灾变控制模式,以及可行方案集分析方法,为泥石流减灾效果分析、减灾方案的提出及优化提供了一条较为便利的理论途径；
(4)在泥石流减灾分析的基础理论问题上,探讨了泥石流启动现象和阻力规律,指出了泥石流启动与运动的相关性,并将泥石流启动与运动作为整体考虑,推导了基于动量守恒的泥石流运动糙率公式,为糙率系数的确定提供了一种较为客观的理论方法。
The concept for debris hazard mitigation mainly follows the pre-disaster prevention patterns of unblocking, inception, and drainage, etc. The analytical methods are not systematic, and some of those are relatively empirical, however. If it is possible to provide theoretical analysis models for the active debris hazard mitigation like pre-disaster prevention and post-disaster responding preparation, it would contribute to implement active hazard mitigation, and achieve the target of "prevent disaster before it happens, and reduce the loss after it happens" more effectively. Around the issues of modeling analysis for debris flow hazard mitigation, relying on the research project of debris flow hazard mitigation in Ya-Lu highway and the scientific research projects aiming at the disasters of debris flow and rock avalanche in the M8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake and the M9.0 East Japan Earthquake, this paper discussed a series of analysis models for debris flow hazard mitigation, aimin at more normative, quantified and engineering adaptable. The main research work and achievements are as follows:
(1) With the model concepts and methods of System Theory and Cybernetics, this paper normalized the establishment of analysis models in debris flow hazard mitigation, in which a basic model system are proposed as a result, concerning about the issues of debris flow's hazard loss prediction, hazard status estimation, mitigation effect prediction and mitigation program optimization;
(2) In the research on the calculating model of debris flow's hazard losses, this paper established an expression of the relation between debris flow's hazard losses and hazard influencing factors by analogizing the strength condition formula of material failure. The expression was called as the debris flow hazard-evolution model. This model testified the rationality of multiplication between hazard and vulnerability in the risk analysis model theoretically, and revealed the influence to the hazard risk of debris flow by the ground condition in hazard bearing regions. The model can be used both in the risk prediction and hazard status estimation;
(3) In the view of the regulating effects of debris flow's hazard mitigation measures towards the hazard influencing factors, this paper established the hazard-evolution control model for debris flow, and proposed optimizing analysis model for debris flow's hazard-evolution control and basic pattern for hazard-evolution control as well as the analysis method of feasible program set under the framework of mathematic planning method, which provided a relatively convenient theoretical approach for the analysis in debris flow's hazard mitigation effects and the propose and optimization of mitigation program;
(4) For the basic theoretical issue of debris flow's hazard mitigation analysis, this paper discussed the triggering phenomena and resistance laws of debris flow, and pointed out the relativity between debris flow's triggering and moving. Through taking debris flow'triggering and moving an entirety into consideration, a formula for debris flow rough ratio calculation based on the law of conservation of momentum was deduced in this paper, which provided a more objective theoretical method for establishing the rough ratio coefficient.
引文
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