大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展研究
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摘要
大小兴安岭森林生态功能区是《全国主体功能区规划》中限制开发区域目录下的重要生态功能区,也是全国最大的国有林区,行政区域跨内蒙古自治区与黑龙江两省,在维护国家生态安全、应对气候变化、保障国家长远木材供给等方面具有不可替代的作用。大小兴安岭森林生态功能区处于我国重要的气候分带---季风区与非季风区的分界线上,森林灾害特别是森林火灾发生比较频繁,灾害不仅对林区的经济社会发展和人民生活影响巨大,而且对于森林生态系统影响深远,因此对转嫁森林风险的最佳工具---森林保险具有客观需求。
由于大小兴安岭林区自开发建设以来即进行国有经营,中央政府与地方政府每年需要投入巨资支付森林灾害造成的损失,帮助林业企业恢复林业生产和维持正常生活,这已成为政府的一个沉重的经济负担,因此政府层面也亟需在该地区开展森林保险业务,通过保险公司的运营来转嫁政府部门过重的救灾负荷。林业企业因为“委托代理关系”的存在,依赖政府对森林灾害的灾害救助及补偿供给,林业企业对政府高度依存,缺乏购买森林保险的意愿。企业负担沉重,在艰难支撑庞杂的社会支出之余,很难拿出巨资来缴纳森林保险的费用,这种既无意愿保险也无实力保险的现实在一定程度上制约着该区域森林保险业务的开展。因此寻求合理的森林保险发展方式,如何组织森林保险运行是该地区森林保险发展的重点。
文章首先进行了森林保险发展的国内外比较研究。运用比较分析方法,在对我国二十几年森林保险发展实践分析的基础上,考察我国森林保险发展的现状,总结森林保险现实存在的问题及面临的障碍。比较分析北欧、美国、日本、澳大利亚和俄罗斯等国家森林保险的共同特点和成功经验,分析对我国森林保险发展的有益启示,为本文明确大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险的发展方向提供可借鉴之处。
其次分析了大小兴安岭森林生态功能区的区域现状、发展森林保险的影响因素及各方主体行为。通过基本情况分析可知,大小兴安岭森林生态功能区生态区位非常重要,区域森林生态系统服务物质量及价仇较为显著,区域经济和社会事业发展的总体状况不容乐观。运用回归分析方法,得到该地区保险发展的主要因素有森林管护程度、森林灾害受害率与地区发展水平。接下来对大小兴安岭开展森林保险的各主体行为进行了分析,明确了在现有的产权关系下,政府既应该是保险制度的主体,也应该是组织供给的主体。林业企业处于不愿投保也无力投保的经营现状,保险公司在高致损性高赔付率情况下亦不愿承保的现实。
第三,明确了大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展路径。首先基于博弈论模型,分别就竞争和垄断两种市场定位进行比较,分析得出垄断机制下整个社会的目标函数与保险人的目标函数一致,也就是说,政府施行的垄断决策能够使得生态功能区森林保险发展实现最优,社会福利达到最大化。同时运用福利经济学相关理论对强制保险的几种方式进行了比较,最终明确强制与补贴相结合的森林保险方式是大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展的正确选择。
第四,对大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险产品进行设计。尝试按照森林经营性质差别构建多样化的森林保险产品。从保险精算理论出发,运用损失率法对该区的森林火灾保险的费率进行了厘定,尝试使用卫星遥感(MODIS)数据产品,利用温度植被干旱指数模型(TVDI)对森林火灾保费的厘定进行扩展分析。同时从大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林生态和经济价值出发对森林保险保额进行确定。
第五,进行大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险组织建构。首先明确设立国有林保险公司专门承保国有林保险,大小兴安岭林区国有林应由其下设分支机构负责保险。进而选择Delta战略模型指导该地区森林保险进行战略性经营,为森林保险顺利发展提供分析问题、判断形势的战略工具。同时明确该地区森林保险的组织层次结构与组织体系,分别从协同体系、激励体系与保障体系出发,确定该区森林保险发展的组织体系,力求能够为该地区的森林保险顺利发展服务。
最后,提出促进大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险快速发展和有效运行的对策措施,主要从政府创新的牵引对策、政策倾斜的催化对策及学术支撑的动力对策等方面研究提出加快大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展的保障对策与措施建议。
The forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains is an important forest ecological function regionalization of the national limit developing zone and the biggest state-owned forest region of China, which administrative areas across Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Heilongjiang province. It plays irreplaceable role on ecological security, climate change and long-term supply of timber. This area is an important climate zone that dividing the line between monsoon and non-monsoon. So, forest disasters especially forest fire occur frequently, which not only have an huge impact on the economic and social development and people's lives, but also have far-reaching influence on the growth of vegetation under the forest system. So, this region has completely objective demand for this best tool of transferring forest risks.
Because of state-owned operation form building, the central government and local governments need invest a huge sum of money to pay the forest disasters losses every year in order to restore forestry production and maintain normal life, which has become a heavy economic burden. So, government needs carry out the forest insurance and relief the burden through the operation of insurance company. Because of "principal-agent", forest enterprises rely on the compensation and salvation of forest disaster from government that lead these forest enterprises highly dependent on government and lack of the willingness to buy forest insurance. Furthermore, forest enterprises also have a heavy burden so that it is different to take out a huge sum of money to pay the forest insurance besides supporting the confused social spending. This reality of nether willingness nor capability for insurance restricts the development of forest insurance in some extent. Therefore, finding a reasonable organization of forest insurance and reasonable design of technical elements is the key point of developing forest insurance.
First, the paper makes a comparative research of the development of forest insurance at home and abroad. Using comparative analysis, based on the forest insurance development in more than20years of China, the paper investigates the present situation of forest insurance in China, summarizes problems and obstacles of the forest insurance. It analyzes common features and successful experience of forest insurance between the northern Europe, the United States, Japan, Australia Russia and other countries to get some beneficial enlightenment for development of our forest insurance, which provides referential points for the forest insurance system of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
Second, the paper analyzes the present situation, the influence factors of forest insurance and the main body behavior of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Based on these basic situation, the ecological location of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains is very important, the quality and value of forest ecosystem service is significant, while its economic and social development is not optimistic. The main influence factors are the degree of forest management, the rate of forest disaster and the level of forestry development by regression analysis. Then, the paper analyzes the main body behavior and makes clear government should be not only the subject of insurance system but also the subject of organization supply under the present property rights. Forest enterprises have unwillingness and incapability to insure and insurance companies also have unwilling to cover under this high loss and high rate of compensation.
Then, the paper makes qualitative research on insurance pattern of the forest ecological function regionalization. Based on the game theory model, the paper discusses two kinds of insurance, competition mechanism and monopoly mechanism. It shows that the forest ecological function regionalization should take compulsory forest insurance for ecological forest. Under the monopoly mechanism, the objective function between the insurer and the whole society is uniformly. It means the decisions form government can achieve optimization of the forest ecological function regionalization and maximize social welfare. And it makes clear that the forest insurance pattern of combining compulsory with allowance is the correct choice of developing forest insurance in the region.
Then, the paper designs insurance products for the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. The paper designs diversified insurance products based on difference of forest management. From the actuarial theory, it determines the forest fire insurance premium by losing method. Try to use MODIS date products and the Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) to deeply analyze the forest fire insurance premium. At the same time, it determines the sum insured form the characteristics of forest ecological and economic value in the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
Then, the paper constructs organization of the forest insurance for the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Firstly set up a state-owned insurance company specialized state-owned forest insurance and its branch responsible for forest insurance of the state-owned forest region of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Secondly, it chooses Delta strategy model to guide the strategic management of forest insurance, which provide a strategic tool to analyze problems and judge situations for the development of forest insurance. At the same time, the paper makes clear the organization structure and organization system and definite organization system from synergistic system, incentive system and security system that try to service for development of forest insurance in this area.
Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions and effective measures from policy, government and academy to promote the development and effective operation of forest insurance in the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
由于大小兴安岭林区自开发建设以来即进行国有经营,中央政府与地方政府每年需要投入巨资支付森林灾害造成的损失,帮助林业企业恢复林业生产和维持正常生活,这已成为政府的一个沉重的经济负担,因此政府层面也亟需在该地区开展森林保险业务,通过保险公司的运营来转嫁政府部门过重的救灾负荷。林业企业因为“委托代理关系”的存在,依赖政府对森林灾害的灾害救助及补偿供给,林业企业对政府高度依存,缺乏购买森林保险的意愿。企业负担沉重,在艰难支撑庞杂的社会支出之余,很难拿出巨资来缴纳森林保险的费用,这种既无意愿保险也无实力保险的现实在一定程度上制约着该区域森林保险业务的开展。因此寻求合理的森林保险发展方式,如何组织森林保险运行是该地区森林保险发展的重点。
文章首先进行了森林保险发展的国内外比较研究。运用比较分析方法,在对我国二十几年森林保险发展实践分析的基础上,考察我国森林保险发展的现状,总结森林保险现实存在的问题及面临的障碍。比较分析北欧、美国、日本、澳大利亚和俄罗斯等国家森林保险的共同特点和成功经验,分析对我国森林保险发展的有益启示,为本文明确大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险的发展方向提供可借鉴之处。
其次分析了大小兴安岭森林生态功能区的区域现状、发展森林保险的影响因素及各方主体行为。通过基本情况分析可知,大小兴安岭森林生态功能区生态区位非常重要,区域森林生态系统服务物质量及价仇较为显著,区域经济和社会事业发展的总体状况不容乐观。运用回归分析方法,得到该地区保险发展的主要因素有森林管护程度、森林灾害受害率与地区发展水平。接下来对大小兴安岭开展森林保险的各主体行为进行了分析,明确了在现有的产权关系下,政府既应该是保险制度的主体,也应该是组织供给的主体。林业企业处于不愿投保也无力投保的经营现状,保险公司在高致损性高赔付率情况下亦不愿承保的现实。
第三,明确了大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展路径。首先基于博弈论模型,分别就竞争和垄断两种市场定位进行比较,分析得出垄断机制下整个社会的目标函数与保险人的目标函数一致,也就是说,政府施行的垄断决策能够使得生态功能区森林保险发展实现最优,社会福利达到最大化。同时运用福利经济学相关理论对强制保险的几种方式进行了比较,最终明确强制与补贴相结合的森林保险方式是大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展的正确选择。
第四,对大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险产品进行设计。尝试按照森林经营性质差别构建多样化的森林保险产品。从保险精算理论出发,运用损失率法对该区的森林火灾保险的费率进行了厘定,尝试使用卫星遥感(MODIS)数据产品,利用温度植被干旱指数模型(TVDI)对森林火灾保费的厘定进行扩展分析。同时从大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林生态和经济价值出发对森林保险保额进行确定。
第五,进行大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险组织建构。首先明确设立国有林保险公司专门承保国有林保险,大小兴安岭林区国有林应由其下设分支机构负责保险。进而选择Delta战略模型指导该地区森林保险进行战略性经营,为森林保险顺利发展提供分析问题、判断形势的战略工具。同时明确该地区森林保险的组织层次结构与组织体系,分别从协同体系、激励体系与保障体系出发,确定该区森林保险发展的组织体系,力求能够为该地区的森林保险顺利发展服务。
最后,提出促进大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险快速发展和有效运行的对策措施,主要从政府创新的牵引对策、政策倾斜的催化对策及学术支撑的动力对策等方面研究提出加快大小兴安岭森林生态功能区森林保险发展的保障对策与措施建议。
The forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains is an important forest ecological function regionalization of the national limit developing zone and the biggest state-owned forest region of China, which administrative areas across Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Heilongjiang province. It plays irreplaceable role on ecological security, climate change and long-term supply of timber. This area is an important climate zone that dividing the line between monsoon and non-monsoon. So, forest disasters especially forest fire occur frequently, which not only have an huge impact on the economic and social development and people's lives, but also have far-reaching influence on the growth of vegetation under the forest system. So, this region has completely objective demand for this best tool of transferring forest risks.
Because of state-owned operation form building, the central government and local governments need invest a huge sum of money to pay the forest disasters losses every year in order to restore forestry production and maintain normal life, which has become a heavy economic burden. So, government needs carry out the forest insurance and relief the burden through the operation of insurance company. Because of "principal-agent", forest enterprises rely on the compensation and salvation of forest disaster from government that lead these forest enterprises highly dependent on government and lack of the willingness to buy forest insurance. Furthermore, forest enterprises also have a heavy burden so that it is different to take out a huge sum of money to pay the forest insurance besides supporting the confused social spending. This reality of nether willingness nor capability for insurance restricts the development of forest insurance in some extent. Therefore, finding a reasonable organization of forest insurance and reasonable design of technical elements is the key point of developing forest insurance.
First, the paper makes a comparative research of the development of forest insurance at home and abroad. Using comparative analysis, based on the forest insurance development in more than20years of China, the paper investigates the present situation of forest insurance in China, summarizes problems and obstacles of the forest insurance. It analyzes common features and successful experience of forest insurance between the northern Europe, the United States, Japan, Australia Russia and other countries to get some beneficial enlightenment for development of our forest insurance, which provides referential points for the forest insurance system of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
Second, the paper analyzes the present situation, the influence factors of forest insurance and the main body behavior of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Based on these basic situation, the ecological location of the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains is very important, the quality and value of forest ecosystem service is significant, while its economic and social development is not optimistic. The main influence factors are the degree of forest management, the rate of forest disaster and the level of forestry development by regression analysis. Then, the paper analyzes the main body behavior and makes clear government should be not only the subject of insurance system but also the subject of organization supply under the present property rights. Forest enterprises have unwillingness and incapability to insure and insurance companies also have unwilling to cover under this high loss and high rate of compensation.
Then, the paper makes qualitative research on insurance pattern of the forest ecological function regionalization. Based on the game theory model, the paper discusses two kinds of insurance, competition mechanism and monopoly mechanism. It shows that the forest ecological function regionalization should take compulsory forest insurance for ecological forest. Under the monopoly mechanism, the objective function between the insurer and the whole society is uniformly. It means the decisions form government can achieve optimization of the forest ecological function regionalization and maximize social welfare. And it makes clear that the forest insurance pattern of combining compulsory with allowance is the correct choice of developing forest insurance in the region.
Then, the paper designs insurance products for the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. The paper designs diversified insurance products based on difference of forest management. From the actuarial theory, it determines the forest fire insurance premium by losing method. Try to use MODIS date products and the Temperature Vegetation Drought Index (TVDI) to deeply analyze the forest fire insurance premium. At the same time, it determines the sum insured form the characteristics of forest ecological and economic value in the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
Then, the paper constructs organization of the forest insurance for the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Firstly set up a state-owned insurance company specialized state-owned forest insurance and its branch responsible for forest insurance of the state-owned forest region of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains. Secondly, it chooses Delta strategy model to guide the strategic management of forest insurance, which provide a strategic tool to analyze problems and judge situations for the development of forest insurance. At the same time, the paper makes clear the organization structure and organization system and definite organization system from synergistic system, incentive system and security system that try to service for development of forest insurance in this area.
Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions and effective measures from policy, government and academy to promote the development and effective operation of forest insurance in the forest ecological function regionalization of Greater and Lesser kningan Mountains.
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