哈尔滨市经济—水环境污染关系研究
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摘要
国民生产总值(GDP)是衡量一个地区发展情况最重要的指标,能从侧面反映一个国家或地区的经济发展水平。然而随着人类社会的发展和GDP的不断增长,因社会经济规模增长、产业结构不合理、生产布局不适当和环境保护措施不得力原因等引起的环境问题日显突出,并已对经济建设、社会生活造成有形或无形的损失,成为城市可持续发展的制约因素。因此,研究经济发展与环境污染物排放之间的关系,实现经济与环境和谐发展,对改善环境质量,维持城市可持续发展具有重要意义。
本文在深入了解哈尔滨市城市经济发展和水环境特点的基础上,收集哈尔滨市环境污染物排放现状资料和数据,指出目前哈尔滨市环境系统面临的种种问题,并计算出2008年哈尔滨市废水排放导致的经济损失约占当年GDP总量的7%。以废水排放量和COD排放量为主要指标,从环境改变与经济发展关系的角度分析哈尔滨市近几年的水环境污染物排放状况,及变化的原因和影响因素。选取适当的环境污染经济损失计算方法,计算了2001~2009年水环境污染物排放导致的城市市政行业,工业、渔业和农业的经济损失。
根据系统动力学建模理论,构建哈尔滨市经济水环境系统动力学模型。在保证经济增长速度的前提下设计出4种方案,对水环境污染物排放量进行预测,通过将水环境污染货币化更加直观的反映环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。分析对比每种方案模拟结果,得到结论:若维持现状,哈尔滨市市区工业废水排放量将达到5.04亿吨,COD排放量将达到11.9万吨;综合了节水减排和政策调整的方案是对经济发展影响最小,减排效果最佳的方案。采用该方案,到2020年哈尔滨市区废水排放总量将少排放6000万吨,每天减少废水排放16.36万吨,节约污水处理建设投资约2.8亿元。根据仿真模拟结果,提出降低哈尔滨市水环境污染物排放量的具体措施。
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most important indicator of measuring a region's development. However, due to the growth of socio-economy, irrational industrial structure and mulfunctional environmental protection measures, with the development of human society and the continuous growth of GDP, the environment problems have brought significant effects on social life, and urban’s sustainable development is under constraint of environment pollution. Therefore, the study of the relationship between economic development and environmental contaminations’emission has great importance of improving the environment quality while maintaining sustainable urban development.
This thesis studied the characteristics of Harbin’s urban economic development and water environment, collected status information and data of water contaminations, analyszed Harbin’s environment problems and calculated the economic loss caused by waste water discharge which was around 7% of the very year’s total GDP in 2008 and was much more than the environment investment weight of the same year. Chose waste water and COD discharge volume as the main indicator, analyzed the factors effecting water environmental pollutants discharge volume. After selecting the appropriate method, this thesis calculated the economic losses of municipal sector and agricultural production brought by water pollution during 2001-2009.
According to system dynamics modeling theory, based on analyzing the structure of urban economy and environment, a system dynamics model of Harbin’s economy and water environment system was built. 4 schemes are designed to solve the problem which the city’s current economy and environment system is facing. The schemes are designed to reduce the waste water and COD discharge volume while the economic grow speed won’t decline. Forecasted the water contaminations discharge volume and the economic loss brought by waste water discharging, and got the following conclusions: The tendency of urban sewage and COD discharge volume is going to be rising. If the current status continues, the industrial waste water volume will be 5.04×108 tones, and COD discharge volume will be 11.9×104 tones. The scheme combining water saving measures and economic policy changing strategy is the best which barely effects the economic development and most effectively reduce contaminations’discharging volume. With this very scheme, by 2020 urban waste water discharge volume will be reduced by the amount of 6×107 tones, and COD discharge volume will be reduced by the amount of 1.636×105 tones each day. 0.28 billion yuan water treatment plant’s construction investment will be saved. Later some suggestion and advises are given according to the simulation results.
本文在深入了解哈尔滨市城市经济发展和水环境特点的基础上,收集哈尔滨市环境污染物排放现状资料和数据,指出目前哈尔滨市环境系统面临的种种问题,并计算出2008年哈尔滨市废水排放导致的经济损失约占当年GDP总量的7%。以废水排放量和COD排放量为主要指标,从环境改变与经济发展关系的角度分析哈尔滨市近几年的水环境污染物排放状况,及变化的原因和影响因素。选取适当的环境污染经济损失计算方法,计算了2001~2009年水环境污染物排放导致的城市市政行业,工业、渔业和农业的经济损失。
根据系统动力学建模理论,构建哈尔滨市经济水环境系统动力学模型。在保证经济增长速度的前提下设计出4种方案,对水环境污染物排放量进行预测,通过将水环境污染货币化更加直观的反映环境污染与经济增长之间的关系。分析对比每种方案模拟结果,得到结论:若维持现状,哈尔滨市市区工业废水排放量将达到5.04亿吨,COD排放量将达到11.9万吨;综合了节水减排和政策调整的方案是对经济发展影响最小,减排效果最佳的方案。采用该方案,到2020年哈尔滨市区废水排放总量将少排放6000万吨,每天减少废水排放16.36万吨,节约污水处理建设投资约2.8亿元。根据仿真模拟结果,提出降低哈尔滨市水环境污染物排放量的具体措施。
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the most important indicator of measuring a region's development. However, due to the growth of socio-economy, irrational industrial structure and mulfunctional environmental protection measures, with the development of human society and the continuous growth of GDP, the environment problems have brought significant effects on social life, and urban’s sustainable development is under constraint of environment pollution. Therefore, the study of the relationship between economic development and environmental contaminations’emission has great importance of improving the environment quality while maintaining sustainable urban development.
This thesis studied the characteristics of Harbin’s urban economic development and water environment, collected status information and data of water contaminations, analyszed Harbin’s environment problems and calculated the economic loss caused by waste water discharge which was around 7% of the very year’s total GDP in 2008 and was much more than the environment investment weight of the same year. Chose waste water and COD discharge volume as the main indicator, analyzed the factors effecting water environmental pollutants discharge volume. After selecting the appropriate method, this thesis calculated the economic losses of municipal sector and agricultural production brought by water pollution during 2001-2009.
According to system dynamics modeling theory, based on analyzing the structure of urban economy and environment, a system dynamics model of Harbin’s economy and water environment system was built. 4 schemes are designed to solve the problem which the city’s current economy and environment system is facing. The schemes are designed to reduce the waste water and COD discharge volume while the economic grow speed won’t decline. Forecasted the water contaminations discharge volume and the economic loss brought by waste water discharging, and got the following conclusions: The tendency of urban sewage and COD discharge volume is going to be rising. If the current status continues, the industrial waste water volume will be 5.04×108 tones, and COD discharge volume will be 11.9×104 tones. The scheme combining water saving measures and economic policy changing strategy is the best which barely effects the economic development and most effectively reduce contaminations’discharging volume. With this very scheme, by 2020 urban waste water discharge volume will be reduced by the amount of 6×107 tones, and COD discharge volume will be reduced by the amount of 1.636×105 tones each day. 0.28 billion yuan water treatment plant’s construction investment will be saved. Later some suggestion and advises are given according to the simulation results.
引文
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2.哈尔滨统计信息网. www.stats-hlheb.gov.cn哈尔滨市统计年鉴.1999~2009
3.国家统计局.中国环境统计年鉴.2006~2009
4. .哈尔滨市水务局. http://www.hrbwrb.gov.cn哈尔滨市水资源公报2003~2007
5.松花江流域水污染防治十一五规划.2006
6.王其藩.高级系统动力学[M].清华大学出版社. 1995
7.崔亚伟.系统动力学在中国环境科学领域的应用研究进展[J].环保科技. 2008(3)44-46
8.何有世,章文芳,李光久.环境经济系统SD模型的建立[J].江苏理工大学学报(社会科学版) 2001(4)63-66
9.左其亭,陈嘻.社会经济生态环境耦合系统动力学模型[J].上海环境科学. 2001.20(12) 592-594
10.施国洪,朱敏.系统动力学方法在环境经济学中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践. 2001(12) 104-110
11.刘俊良,臧景红,何延青.系统动力学模型用于城市需水量预测[J].中国给水排水. 2005, 21 (6) :31~34
12.闫二旺.系统动力学在区域经济可持续发展战略规划中的应用-以山西省左云县为例[J]太原师范学院学报(自然科学版) 2003(2)76-78
13. Dasgupta S, Mody A, Roy S, et al. Environment regulation and development: a cross-country empirical analysis[R].World Bank Policy Research Department Working Paper, No.1448, March,1995.
14. Grossman G.M. & Krueger A. B., Environmental impacts of the North American free trade agreement [R]. NBER working paper, No. 3941, 1991
15.夏广亮,韩玉梅,杜崇,姚章村,肖迪芳.黑龙江农业用水推估与雨养农业刍议[J].黑龙江水专学报. 2007.34 (4)4-8
16.霍鉴琳,张弘帅,宋庆华.对阿城市水稻田灌水型式的分析[J].水利科技与经济. 2003.9(3) 201
17.彭世彰,朱成立.作物节水灌溉需水规律研究[J].节水灌溉. 2003(2)5-8
18.张荣彪,张荣力,李亚军.双城市污水灌溉初探[J].黑龙江水专学报. 2000.27(2)52-53
19.宋武,周建兴.水稻灌溉用水量的实用计算[J].黑龙江水利科技. 2009.37(2)197
20.马向东,魏永霞,康百赢.黑龙江垦区水利发展与水资源合理开发利用分析[J].农业系统科学与综合研究. 2004.20(2)136-139
21.谭成明.水稻灌溉用水量探讨[J].现代农业科技. 2008.(21)211-212
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