经济波动与媒体广告收益变化：不同类型媒体的比较研究
|
摘要
作为第三产业生力军的广告业，从其发展至今一直是众多学者关注的对象。对于广告业的研究，在各国存在着一种通行的现象——在广告业的高速发展期，学者们较多关注的都是广告的经济性，即广告对于宏观经济的促进和调整作用。然而，当各国的广告业进入发展的平稳期后，作为国民产业的一支常规军，广告业自然也会受到经济大坏境的影响，尤其是在经济增长期和经济衰退期，这种影响在媒体广告收益上的表现就会格外明显。受到这些现象的启发，学者们逐渐开始关注宏观经济对于广告业的影响，并将研究的领域向各个层面扩展。
2008年，美国爆发的次贷危机演变成经济危机席卷全球。在这次经济危机中各国的传媒业都或多或少地受到了影响。然而有趣的是，若干报告指出此次经济危机对于不同国家以及不同媒体的影响是大相径庭的。这使得关于经济波动对于媒体广告收益的影响及其原因分析的研究呈现出较强的必要性。因此，基于前人的研究，本文将研究的领域设置为经济波动背景下，不同类型媒体广告收益差异性产生的原因。在阅读了大量文献的基础上，本文总结了前人的研究路径、理论假设与证明结论，并通过模型建构，假设推理和对于中国实际数据的实证分析，从两个层面三个视角检验了经济波动对于媒体广告收益的影响，并分析了对不同类型媒体广告收益产生差异性影响的原因。具体而言，除了在一般意义上将GDP总量与不同类型媒体广告收益相关量及增长或削减份额作弹性比较外，本文还选择了两个微观视角进行探讨，即媒体替代的内部原因和企业广告投放决策的外部原因；而宏观层面则直视产业结构及其调整对于不同类型媒体广告收益的影响。
为了明确影响媒体广告收益的媒体替代因素，本文从受众媒体选择替代和厂商广告媒介选择替代两个角度进行了阶梯式的分析，并试图寻找受众媒体替代和厂商广告投放选择替代之间的联系。从企业视角出发，本文分析了经济波动不同阶段不同企业的广告投放决策会对媒体整体以及不同媒体的广告收益产生怎样的影响。从产业分类的视角出发，本文通过分析过去25年间产业变化对GDP影响的程度，研究了不同产业结构对不同媒体广告收益变化所产生的影响。
具体到各章节，本文做了如下安排，第一部分是绪论，主体部分分为四章，最后是本论文的结论和有待进一步讨论的问题。
绪论部分概述了经济波动与媒体广告收益之间的关系，并对国内外研究现状进行了文献综述。
第一章检验了媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动的关系，初步建立了各种企业媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动之间感性的联系。在分析已有的经济波动与广告产业收益关系文献的基础上，本章对中国的广告市场展开了研究。此外，基于1983年至2007年25年间中国的实际广告数据，本章尝试分析了在中国广告市场上经济波动对于不同类型媒体广告收益的影响。为了深入研究媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动之间的关系，需要搞清楚两个方面的问题：一是不同类型媒体的广告收益是如何受到经济波动的影响的，二是为何不同类型媒体在经济波动周期之内广告收益会产生极大的差别。因此，此后的三章分述了产生差异性的原因，并在每一章中，都结合中国实际及所收集到的数据进行了不同视角的假设和实证分析。
第二章的研究重点为经济波动背景下的媒体替代，即微观视角下源自媒体内部的原因分析，拟从广告市场的媒体相互替代视角探讨经济波动期内不同媒体广告收益差异性产生的原因。结合中国的现实数据，本章计算了单个媒体广告增长率和总体媒体广告增长率之间的比例关系，揭示了在中国的广告市场中媒体间相互替代存在的可能性，同时也解释了在经济波动的大环境下这种替代是如何发生并变化的。
第三章的重点叙述了在经济波动背景下不同的企业广告投放决策对于媒体广告收益的影响，以期弄清楚不同类型的企业在面对经济波动时是如何进行企业决策的。文章选取了不同类型的企业，实证研究他们的企业广告支出决策会受到经济波动怎样的影响。这种影响表现为，在企业面对经济波动时会如何决策广告投放量和选择投放媒体。
第四章的研究重点是产业结构这一视角下宏观层面的原因分析，即经济波动背景下，产业结构对于不同类型媒体广告收益差异性的影响分析。本章研究一个经济体中各个行业的广告收益与广告支出决策是如何受到产业结构及其调整的影响的，这种影响体现为处在不同产业层次的企业他们有着不同的广告投放意愿以及投向不同媒体的意愿。
最后一部分是全文的总结。一方面概述了本文的研究结论，另一方面也归纳了本项研究的不足与欠缺，同时还讨论了同类研究未来进一步深入探索应该注意的问题和努力的方向。
总体上来说，本文试图从宏观和微观两个层面三个视角分析经济波动与媒体广告收益变化之间的关系。在描述了大量有关宏观经济波动、媒体替代、企业广告支出决策、产业结构及其调整与媒体广告整体收益和不同媒体广告收益变化之间关系的理论和研究结论后，本文在收集到的我国实际广告数据的基础上通过模型构建和假设推导，不仅从总量层面分析了我国经济波动对不同类型媒体广告收益产生影响的主要原因，还从不同媒体广告年度增长额的交互变化，不同的企业广告投放决策和不同类型企业投放偏好，以及产业结构和各个产业占GDP比重的变化率等多重视角分析了经济波动对媒体总体和不同类型媒体广告收益的影响效果。本文的研究试图在以下几方面取得创新:
1.目前学界的研究成果多数建立在以英美为代表的发达国家广告数据的基础上，或比较OECD内部不同国家不同媒体受经济波动影响的情况，很少有西方的学者关注中国的实际情形，而中国学者的研究又较多表现为个别现象层面的泛泛而谈，缺少结合中国广告数据的实证研究。本项研究是建立在中国25年的年度广告数据之上，从理论探讨和实证研究两个层面对中国媒体广告总体和不同类型媒体广告收益所受经济波动影响进行的分析。因而，从综合性上来说，可视为一种创新。
2.已有的研究仅单一研究了经济增长期内经济波动与企业广告投放决策和不同媒体广告收益的关系，或者仅研究单一经济衰退期内的这一现象，本文的研究数据跨度时间为25年，至少可以囊括一个完整的经济周期——经济衰退期、波谷期、恢复期和波峰期，并对该时间段内的各个经济波峰和波谷都进行了比较细致的分析。因而，从完整性上来说，也可认为是一种创新。
3.本项研究从媒体替代和企业广告支出决策这两个微观视角解释了宏观经济波动中不同媒体广告收益变化的原因。弥补了长期以来学界单向研究宏观问题，而缺乏微观现象深入剖析的不足。
4.本项研究开拓性地研究了产业结构及其调整对媒体广告收益的影响。这为该领域的研究带来了一个新的突破点，其中产业内行业细分后的特点及偏好研究将成为该研究点极具价值的研究方向。
5.本文对模型参数进行比较详细的估计和校准，所估计的模型参数反映了中国不同媒体广告收益的实际估计情况，为利用现有的中国实际数据进行预测提供了可能性。
As one of the fresh troops of the tertiary industry, the advertising industry, from the momentof its budding, has attracted great attention from many scholars. For the research of advertising,there is a common phenomenon in all countries that, in the period of high-speed development ofadvertising, scholars are more concerned about the economical efficiency of it, which representsthe promoting and adjusting effects of advertising on macro economy. However, after accessinginto the period of stable development, as a standing army of the national industry, the advertisingwould be influenced by general economic environment naturally, especially in periods ofeconomic growth and recession, the impact on media advertising revenue would be more obvious.Inspired by these phenomena, scholars start to focus on the macroeconomic impact on theadvertising industry, and extend to all levels in the field of the research.
In2008, it swept the world that the economic crisis of United States evolved from thesubprime mortgage crisis. In this economic crisis, the media industry of all nations was affectedmore or less. However, what’s interesting is that several reports indicated that the impact of thiseconomic crisis on different media of different countries is quite disparate. This truth made theresearch of the impact of economic fluctuations on advertising revenue become very attractive andsignificant. Therefore, on the basis of previous research, this article focuses on the analysis offinding the reason that different media would receive different adverting revenue under thebackground of economic fluctuations. After reviewing a lot of related literature, this articlesummarizes previous researching paths, theoretical hypotheses and conclusions, and based onmodel construction, hypothesis-based reasoning and empirical analysis of China's actual data,examines the impact of economic fluctuations on media advertising revenue from the threedifferent perspectives of two levels, and analyzes the various reasons that arouse the phenomenon.In particular, except the compare of elasticity between the total GDP volume and the increasingand reducing share of media advertising revenue, this paper discusses two micro-perspectives thatthe internal reasons of media substitution and the external causes of advertising decisions ofenterprises; and the macro-level that the influence of industrial structure on different mediaadvertising revenues.
In order to clarify factors of media substitution that influence media advertising revenues,this paper operates a step-wise analysis from two angles: media substitution of audience selectingand advertiser selecting, and tries to find the relationship between the two kinds of mediasubstitution. From the perspective of enterprise, this paper analyses the impact of the economicfluctuations in different stages been exerted on media as a whole and various media advertisingrevenues. From the perspective of industrial classification, this paper, by analyzing the degree ofthe influence of industry changes on GDP over the past25years, examines the effect of differentindustrial structures on various media advertising revenues.
Specific to each section, the paper makes the following arrangements: part one is the introduction, the main part is divided into four chapters, and final part is the conclusion and issuesshould be discussed further.
The introductory section outlines the relationship between economic fluctuations and mediaadvertising revenue, and reviews the literatures on this research field.
Chapter one tests the relationship between changes of media advertising revenue andeconomic fluctuations, and initially establishes various emotional connections between changes ofmedia advertising revenue and economic fluctuations. Based on analyzing the literatures of theexisting relationship between economic fluctuations and the advertising industry, a study onChina's advertising market is expended in this chapter. In addition, based on25years advertisingdata of China from1983to2007, this chapter attempts to discuss the impact of economicfluctuation on different media advertising revenues in China. In order to understand therelationship between changes of media advertising revenues and economic fluctuations in depth,two problems should be figured out: one is how economic fluctuation affects different mediaadvertising revenues; the second is reasons that cause the discrepancy. Therefore, the next threechapters analyze these reasons respectively, and in each chapter, China's actual data were collectedand applied in the assumptions and empirical analyses from different perspectives.
The focus of chapter two is media substitution in the context of economic fluctuations, thatthe analysis from micro perspective about the internal reasons of media. It tries to find the reasonsof the discrepancy of media advertising revenues from the view of media substitution. Combinedwith the data from China, this chapter calculates the proportional relationship of growth ratebetween a single media and media in general, reveals the possibility of media substitution inChina's advertising market, and explains why the substitution would happen in the context ofeconomic fluctuations.
Chapter three focuses on that, under the background of economic fluctuations, the effect ofdifferent advertising decisions on media advertising revenues, and correspondingly finds out howdifferent types of businesses, in the face of economic fluctuations, make promoting decision. Thischapter selects different types of enterprise, operates empirical study on the effects of economicfluctuations on their advertising decisions. This effect manifests what decisions of advertisingvolume and media choosing would be made by enterprises.
The fourth chapter underlines the reason from macro perspective of industrial structure, thatthe influence of industrial structure on different media advertising revenues. This chapter analyzeshow do advertising decisions of different industries be affected by economic fluctuations, and theinfluence shows that enterprises in different industries would have various advertising decisionand choose different media.
The last part is the conclusion of the paper. On one hand, it provides an overview of thefindings of this article, on the other hand, summarizes the shortcomings. Most important, itdiscusses the problems and goals should be paid attentions in future for the in-depth exploration ofsimilar studies.
On the whole, this article attempts to dig out the relationship between economic fluctuationsand changes of media advertising revenue from both macro and micro perspectives. This paperindicates a large number of theories and works on the relationship between media advertising revenues and economic fluctuation, the media substitution, enterprise advertising decisions, andthe industrial structure. After that, based on the collected data of Chinese advertising, it builds upmodels and deduces assumptions. This paper not only analyzes the reasons why economicfluctuation would exert effect on media advertising revenues from the macro level, but alsodiscusses the reasons from diverse micro angles, such as alternating changes of annual growth ofadvertising revenues for different media, advertising decisions of different enterprises, variousadvertising preferences, industry structure, as well as the changing rate of share of GDP fordifferent industries. This study attempts to get innovations in the following areas:
1. Currently, most results of academic researches are established on the data from developedcountries, such as British and America, or compare the situations in different OECD countries.Few scholars of Western pay close attention to China's actual situation, while the researches ofChinese scholars often present a talk in generalities lacking of empirical researches on advertisingdata. This study is based on25years of annual advertising data in China, and analyzes the impactof economic fluctuation on media advertising revenues from both theoretical and empiricaldimensions. Thus, from the perspective of comprehensiveness, it can be regarded as an innovation.
2. Existing researches only focus on the phenomenon in the period of economic growth ofrecession, however, the collected data of this paper spans25year, which includes at least a fulleconomic cycle covering recession, trough, recovery, and crest. Beside, the entire troughs andcrests in the selected period are discussed in detail. Therefore, from the view of completeness, itcan also be considered to be an innovation.
3. This paper explains why economic fluctuation would cause changes of different mediaadvertising revenue from two micro perspectives, which makes up for one-way discussion aboutmacro issues and lacking of deep analyses from micro-perspective.
4. This paper analyzes the influence of the industrial structure and its adjustment on mediaadvertising revenues, which brings a new breakthrough in the field, and the research oncharacteristics and preferences of industry subdivisions in industries will be the most valuabledirection of the field.
5. The model parameters, which reflect the actual estimates of the different mediaadvertising revenues in China, and provide possibilities of taking advantage of existing actual datato make predictions, are estimated and calibrated in this paper detailedly.
2008年，美国爆发的次贷危机演变成经济危机席卷全球。在这次经济危机中各国的传媒业都或多或少地受到了影响。然而有趣的是，若干报告指出此次经济危机对于不同国家以及不同媒体的影响是大相径庭的。这使得关于经济波动对于媒体广告收益的影响及其原因分析的研究呈现出较强的必要性。因此，基于前人的研究，本文将研究的领域设置为经济波动背景下，不同类型媒体广告收益差异性产生的原因。在阅读了大量文献的基础上，本文总结了前人的研究路径、理论假设与证明结论，并通过模型建构，假设推理和对于中国实际数据的实证分析，从两个层面三个视角检验了经济波动对于媒体广告收益的影响，并分析了对不同类型媒体广告收益产生差异性影响的原因。具体而言，除了在一般意义上将GDP总量与不同类型媒体广告收益相关量及增长或削减份额作弹性比较外，本文还选择了两个微观视角进行探讨，即媒体替代的内部原因和企业广告投放决策的外部原因；而宏观层面则直视产业结构及其调整对于不同类型媒体广告收益的影响。
为了明确影响媒体广告收益的媒体替代因素，本文从受众媒体选择替代和厂商广告媒介选择替代两个角度进行了阶梯式的分析，并试图寻找受众媒体替代和厂商广告投放选择替代之间的联系。从企业视角出发，本文分析了经济波动不同阶段不同企业的广告投放决策会对媒体整体以及不同媒体的广告收益产生怎样的影响。从产业分类的视角出发，本文通过分析过去25年间产业变化对GDP影响的程度，研究了不同产业结构对不同媒体广告收益变化所产生的影响。
具体到各章节，本文做了如下安排，第一部分是绪论，主体部分分为四章，最后是本论文的结论和有待进一步讨论的问题。
绪论部分概述了经济波动与媒体广告收益之间的关系，并对国内外研究现状进行了文献综述。
第一章检验了媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动的关系，初步建立了各种企业媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动之间感性的联系。在分析已有的经济波动与广告产业收益关系文献的基础上，本章对中国的广告市场展开了研究。此外，基于1983年至2007年25年间中国的实际广告数据，本章尝试分析了在中国广告市场上经济波动对于不同类型媒体广告收益的影响。为了深入研究媒体广告收益的变化与经济波动之间的关系，需要搞清楚两个方面的问题：一是不同类型媒体的广告收益是如何受到经济波动的影响的，二是为何不同类型媒体在经济波动周期之内广告收益会产生极大的差别。因此，此后的三章分述了产生差异性的原因，并在每一章中，都结合中国实际及所收集到的数据进行了不同视角的假设和实证分析。
第二章的研究重点为经济波动背景下的媒体替代，即微观视角下源自媒体内部的原因分析，拟从广告市场的媒体相互替代视角探讨经济波动期内不同媒体广告收益差异性产生的原因。结合中国的现实数据，本章计算了单个媒体广告增长率和总体媒体广告增长率之间的比例关系，揭示了在中国的广告市场中媒体间相互替代存在的可能性，同时也解释了在经济波动的大环境下这种替代是如何发生并变化的。
第三章的重点叙述了在经济波动背景下不同的企业广告投放决策对于媒体广告收益的影响，以期弄清楚不同类型的企业在面对经济波动时是如何进行企业决策的。文章选取了不同类型的企业，实证研究他们的企业广告支出决策会受到经济波动怎样的影响。这种影响表现为，在企业面对经济波动时会如何决策广告投放量和选择投放媒体。
第四章的研究重点是产业结构这一视角下宏观层面的原因分析，即经济波动背景下，产业结构对于不同类型媒体广告收益差异性的影响分析。本章研究一个经济体中各个行业的广告收益与广告支出决策是如何受到产业结构及其调整的影响的，这种影响体现为处在不同产业层次的企业他们有着不同的广告投放意愿以及投向不同媒体的意愿。
最后一部分是全文的总结。一方面概述了本文的研究结论，另一方面也归纳了本项研究的不足与欠缺，同时还讨论了同类研究未来进一步深入探索应该注意的问题和努力的方向。
总体上来说，本文试图从宏观和微观两个层面三个视角分析经济波动与媒体广告收益变化之间的关系。在描述了大量有关宏观经济波动、媒体替代、企业广告支出决策、产业结构及其调整与媒体广告整体收益和不同媒体广告收益变化之间关系的理论和研究结论后，本文在收集到的我国实际广告数据的基础上通过模型构建和假设推导，不仅从总量层面分析了我国经济波动对不同类型媒体广告收益产生影响的主要原因，还从不同媒体广告年度增长额的交互变化，不同的企业广告投放决策和不同类型企业投放偏好，以及产业结构和各个产业占GDP比重的变化率等多重视角分析了经济波动对媒体总体和不同类型媒体广告收益的影响效果。本文的研究试图在以下几方面取得创新:
1.目前学界的研究成果多数建立在以英美为代表的发达国家广告数据的基础上，或比较OECD内部不同国家不同媒体受经济波动影响的情况，很少有西方的学者关注中国的实际情形，而中国学者的研究又较多表现为个别现象层面的泛泛而谈，缺少结合中国广告数据的实证研究。本项研究是建立在中国25年的年度广告数据之上，从理论探讨和实证研究两个层面对中国媒体广告总体和不同类型媒体广告收益所受经济波动影响进行的分析。因而，从综合性上来说，可视为一种创新。
2.已有的研究仅单一研究了经济增长期内经济波动与企业广告投放决策和不同媒体广告收益的关系，或者仅研究单一经济衰退期内的这一现象，本文的研究数据跨度时间为25年，至少可以囊括一个完整的经济周期——经济衰退期、波谷期、恢复期和波峰期，并对该时间段内的各个经济波峰和波谷都进行了比较细致的分析。因而，从完整性上来说，也可认为是一种创新。
3.本项研究从媒体替代和企业广告支出决策这两个微观视角解释了宏观经济波动中不同媒体广告收益变化的原因。弥补了长期以来学界单向研究宏观问题，而缺乏微观现象深入剖析的不足。
4.本项研究开拓性地研究了产业结构及其调整对媒体广告收益的影响。这为该领域的研究带来了一个新的突破点，其中产业内行业细分后的特点及偏好研究将成为该研究点极具价值的研究方向。
5.本文对模型参数进行比较详细的估计和校准，所估计的模型参数反映了中国不同媒体广告收益的实际估计情况，为利用现有的中国实际数据进行预测提供了可能性。
As one of the fresh troops of the tertiary industry, the advertising industry, from the momentof its budding, has attracted great attention from many scholars. For the research of advertising,there is a common phenomenon in all countries that, in the period of high-speed development ofadvertising, scholars are more concerned about the economical efficiency of it, which representsthe promoting and adjusting effects of advertising on macro economy. However, after accessinginto the period of stable development, as a standing army of the national industry, the advertisingwould be influenced by general economic environment naturally, especially in periods ofeconomic growth and recession, the impact on media advertising revenue would be more obvious.Inspired by these phenomena, scholars start to focus on the macroeconomic impact on theadvertising industry, and extend to all levels in the field of the research.
In2008, it swept the world that the economic crisis of United States evolved from thesubprime mortgage crisis. In this economic crisis, the media industry of all nations was affectedmore or less. However, what’s interesting is that several reports indicated that the impact of thiseconomic crisis on different media of different countries is quite disparate. This truth made theresearch of the impact of economic fluctuations on advertising revenue become very attractive andsignificant. Therefore, on the basis of previous research, this article focuses on the analysis offinding the reason that different media would receive different adverting revenue under thebackground of economic fluctuations. After reviewing a lot of related literature, this articlesummarizes previous researching paths, theoretical hypotheses and conclusions, and based onmodel construction, hypothesis-based reasoning and empirical analysis of China's actual data,examines the impact of economic fluctuations on media advertising revenue from the threedifferent perspectives of two levels, and analyzes the various reasons that arouse the phenomenon.In particular, except the compare of elasticity between the total GDP volume and the increasingand reducing share of media advertising revenue, this paper discusses two micro-perspectives thatthe internal reasons of media substitution and the external causes of advertising decisions ofenterprises; and the macro-level that the influence of industrial structure on different mediaadvertising revenues.
In order to clarify factors of media substitution that influence media advertising revenues,this paper operates a step-wise analysis from two angles: media substitution of audience selectingand advertiser selecting, and tries to find the relationship between the two kinds of mediasubstitution. From the perspective of enterprise, this paper analyses the impact of the economicfluctuations in different stages been exerted on media as a whole and various media advertisingrevenues. From the perspective of industrial classification, this paper, by analyzing the degree ofthe influence of industry changes on GDP over the past25years, examines the effect of differentindustrial structures on various media advertising revenues.
Specific to each section, the paper makes the following arrangements: part one is the introduction, the main part is divided into four chapters, and final part is the conclusion and issuesshould be discussed further.
The introductory section outlines the relationship between economic fluctuations and mediaadvertising revenue, and reviews the literatures on this research field.
Chapter one tests the relationship between changes of media advertising revenue andeconomic fluctuations, and initially establishes various emotional connections between changes ofmedia advertising revenue and economic fluctuations. Based on analyzing the literatures of theexisting relationship between economic fluctuations and the advertising industry, a study onChina's advertising market is expended in this chapter. In addition, based on25years advertisingdata of China from1983to2007, this chapter attempts to discuss the impact of economicfluctuation on different media advertising revenues in China. In order to understand therelationship between changes of media advertising revenues and economic fluctuations in depth,two problems should be figured out: one is how economic fluctuation affects different mediaadvertising revenues; the second is reasons that cause the discrepancy. Therefore, the next threechapters analyze these reasons respectively, and in each chapter, China's actual data were collectedand applied in the assumptions and empirical analyses from different perspectives.
The focus of chapter two is media substitution in the context of economic fluctuations, thatthe analysis from micro perspective about the internal reasons of media. It tries to find the reasonsof the discrepancy of media advertising revenues from the view of media substitution. Combinedwith the data from China, this chapter calculates the proportional relationship of growth ratebetween a single media and media in general, reveals the possibility of media substitution inChina's advertising market, and explains why the substitution would happen in the context ofeconomic fluctuations.
Chapter three focuses on that, under the background of economic fluctuations, the effect ofdifferent advertising decisions on media advertising revenues, and correspondingly finds out howdifferent types of businesses, in the face of economic fluctuations, make promoting decision. Thischapter selects different types of enterprise, operates empirical study on the effects of economicfluctuations on their advertising decisions. This effect manifests what decisions of advertisingvolume and media choosing would be made by enterprises.
The fourth chapter underlines the reason from macro perspective of industrial structure, thatthe influence of industrial structure on different media advertising revenues. This chapter analyzeshow do advertising decisions of different industries be affected by economic fluctuations, and theinfluence shows that enterprises in different industries would have various advertising decisionand choose different media.
The last part is the conclusion of the paper. On one hand, it provides an overview of thefindings of this article, on the other hand, summarizes the shortcomings. Most important, itdiscusses the problems and goals should be paid attentions in future for the in-depth exploration ofsimilar studies.
On the whole, this article attempts to dig out the relationship between economic fluctuationsand changes of media advertising revenue from both macro and micro perspectives. This paperindicates a large number of theories and works on the relationship between media advertising revenues and economic fluctuation, the media substitution, enterprise advertising decisions, andthe industrial structure. After that, based on the collected data of Chinese advertising, it builds upmodels and deduces assumptions. This paper not only analyzes the reasons why economicfluctuation would exert effect on media advertising revenues from the macro level, but alsodiscusses the reasons from diverse micro angles, such as alternating changes of annual growth ofadvertising revenues for different media, advertising decisions of different enterprises, variousadvertising preferences, industry structure, as well as the changing rate of share of GDP fordifferent industries. This study attempts to get innovations in the following areas:
1. Currently, most results of academic researches are established on the data from developedcountries, such as British and America, or compare the situations in different OECD countries.Few scholars of Western pay close attention to China's actual situation, while the researches ofChinese scholars often present a talk in generalities lacking of empirical researches on advertisingdata. This study is based on25years of annual advertising data in China, and analyzes the impactof economic fluctuation on media advertising revenues from both theoretical and empiricaldimensions. Thus, from the perspective of comprehensiveness, it can be regarded as an innovation.
2. Existing researches only focus on the phenomenon in the period of economic growth ofrecession, however, the collected data of this paper spans25year, which includes at least a fulleconomic cycle covering recession, trough, recovery, and crest. Beside, the entire troughs andcrests in the selected period are discussed in detail. Therefore, from the view of completeness, itcan also be considered to be an innovation.
3. This paper explains why economic fluctuation would cause changes of different mediaadvertising revenue from two micro perspectives, which makes up for one-way discussion aboutmacro issues and lacking of deep analyses from micro-perspective.
4. This paper analyzes the influence of the industrial structure and its adjustment on mediaadvertising revenues, which brings a new breakthrough in the field, and the research oncharacteristics and preferences of industry subdivisions in industries will be the most valuabledirection of the field.
5. The model parameters, which reflect the actual estimates of the different mediaadvertising revenues in China, and provide possibilities of taking advantage of existing actual datato make predictions, are estimated and calibrated in this paper detailedly.
引文
①Aegis Group."Carat issues new global ad spending growth forecasts for2009and2010”, Retrieved2,8,2012,from Aegis,(10,9,2009): http://www.aegisplc.com/ags/media/groupreleases/grouprel2009/2009-10-01/.
②Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
③Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy ofAdvertising Spending A Cross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants",Gazette, vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357;
①Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
②Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
③Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
④Lisa, O'Malleya, Story Vicky, and O'Sullivan Vicky."Marketing in A Recession: Retrench or Invest?" Journalof Strategic Marketing, vol.19(3),2011, p.285-310.
⑤Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”,Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
①Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
②Eg. Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; Linnett, R."Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2; Picard, R. G."EconomicGrowth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.21,2008: p.28-52.
③日月：《美国报纸平面广告开支连续20季度下降》，检索日期:2013年2月16日，来源：新浪财经，(2011年9月2日)：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20110902/004410419991.shtml，。
④Duyn, A. v. Online advertisers may gain from downturn. Retrieved216,2013, from FT,(2007,923):http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bd95d94-69f7-11dc-a571-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz2MdtfzbP2
⑤周艳、李遥：《金融危机中的海外广告市场》，检索日期:2011年11月6日，来源：新华网，(2009年6月10日)： http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2009-06/10/content_11517918.htm
①郝倩：《第一财经日报》：化妆品公司遭遇艰难时局新兴市场成救命稻草，检索日期:2012年9月22日，来源：复旦新闻文化网，(2008年11月21日)： http://news.fudan.edu.cn/2008/1121/19970.html
②Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and Promotional Expenditures:Key Correlates in”. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68.
③Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: Some Cross-SectionalAnalyses”, Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979, p.112-122.
④Eg. Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and PromotionalExpenditures: Key Correlates in”. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68; Zinkhan, G. M.,&Hirschheim, R.“Truth in Marketing Theory and Research: An Alternative Perspective”, Journal of Marketing,vol.56(2),1992, pp.80-88.
⑤Eg. Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”, American Economic Review, vol.65(2),1975, p.310-316; Kuznets, S., Secular Movements in Production and Prices, Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930, p.56-58; and Rostow, W. W., The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1960, p.15.
⑥孔庆辉：《宏观经济波动对防守型行业》，《现代商业》2010年第6期，第83页。
⑦孔庆辉：《宏观经济波动、周期型行业和资本结构选择》，《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第12卷第6期，第31-35页。
⑧付洪良、周应恒：《食品行业增长波动与经济波动的相关性分析》，《经济问题》2012年第2期，第110-113页。
⑨蒋毅、毕开顺：《经济危机对中国医药产业的影响》，《医药导报》2010年第29卷第8期,第1110-1113页。
⑩杨有志：《建筑业内在行业结构经济波动的实证分析》，《山西财经大学学报》2011年第33卷第3期，第112-113页。
①Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.1970, p.131-132.
②Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
③Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
④Eg. Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures inDifferent Media in Different Countries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Eg. Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in DifferentCountries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.; Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G.,Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“The Role of National Culture in Advertising’sSensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636; Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media inDifferent Countries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press,1970, p.213.
②Chiplin, B.,&Sturgess, B. Econimics of Advertising (2nd ed. ed.). London: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.1981,p.97-98.
③Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
④Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
⑤Swerdlow, R. A.,&Blessios, V. I.“A Model for Predicting Advertising Expenditures: An Inter-industryComparison”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2),1993, p.143-153.
⑥Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
⑦Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
⑧McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”, Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972,p.67; And McCombs,M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”, Journal of Communication, vol.30(1),1980, p.153-158.
⑨Dimmick, J.“The Theory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
⑩Demers, D. P.“Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National Advertising Expenditures”,The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1995, p.31-48.
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②Glascock, J.“Effect of Cable Television on Advertiser and Consumer Spending on Mass Media”, JournalismQuarterly, vol.70(3),1993, p.509-517.
③Eg. Cardona, M. M.“Local-market Pricing Issues Strain Ad-market Recovery”. Advertising Age,2003,p.74(40), p.8; Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”. Journal of Advertising Research,20(6),1980, p.11-16; And Dipasquale, C. B.,&Fine, J,“PM: Last Call for Magazines”, Advertising Age,vol.73(5),1,2002, p.31; And Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted.“Relative Constancy of AdvertisingSpending A Cross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”, Gazette,vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357.
④Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy of Advertising Spending A Cross-nationalExamination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”, Gazette, vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357.
⑤彭伟步：《次贷危机对美国传媒业的影响》，《中国记者》2008年第12月，第65-67页。
⑥李晓玲：《金融海啸下，传媒业的命运与突围》，《传媒观察》2008年12月，第29-30页。
⑦田涛：《2009年中国广告市场剧变》，《成功营销》2009年，第48-49页。
⑧闵阳.：《全球经济危机对我国传媒产业的影响与应对》，《陕西理工学院学报（社会科学版）》2009年第27卷第2期，第51-55页。
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②黄升民：《金融危机下的广告业应对与发展》，《广告人》2009年，第122页。
③Eg. Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; And Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on AdvertisingExpenditure: An Exploratory Study of Economic Downturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14
④Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; AndPicard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑤Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession:Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
⑥于超：《透视金融危机下的报刊广告》，《新闻与写作》2009年5月，第9-10页。
⑦严峻：《金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业》，《东南传播》2010年9月，第38-39页。
⑧Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”. Journal of Marketing, vol.28(2),1964, p.25-80.
⑨Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.20(6),1980, p.11-16.
①Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2.
②Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in LocalBusiness Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002):http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf
③赵洪明：《金融危机下电视广告发展前瞻》，《经营管理》2009年5月，第43-45页。
④林蕾：《金融危机对电视广告的影响及对策》，《青年记者》2009年4月，第75页。
⑤Eg. Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2; AndSaksena, S.,&Hollifield, C. A.“U.S. Newspapers and the Development of Online Editions”, InternationalJournal on Media Management, vol.4(2),2002, p.75-84.
⑥Eg. De Waal, E., Schoenbach, K.,&Lauf, E.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement for Print Newspapers and Other Information Channels?” Communications, vol.30,2005, p.55-72; AndWaldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2003,Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9.2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
⑦Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by NationalAdvertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2001, p.323-348.
⑧Eg.Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in LocalBusiness Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002):http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf; Ekelund, R. B., Jr., Ford, G. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? An empirical analysis”, Journal Review ofindustrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999, p.239-256; And Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“IntermediaSubstitutability and Market Demand by National Advertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348.
⑨Eg. Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39; Maxwell, A.,&Wanta, W.“Advertising Agencies Reduce Reliance on Newspaper Ads”,Newspaper Research Journal, vol.22(2),2001, p.51-65; And Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side Viewof Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: A study of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional MediaOptions”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307.
①Eg.Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition Among MediaInterests”, Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984, p.109-119; And Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition Between the Cable and Broadcast Industries:A niche Analysis”, Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.5(1),1992, p.13-30.
②Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
③Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.8(4),1995, p.29-45.
④Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: A study ofAdvertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307; Reid, L. N., King, K. W., Martin, H. J.,&Soh, H.“Local Advertising Decision MakersPerceptions of Media Effectiveness and Substitutability”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.18(1),2005, p.35-53.
⑤Schmalensee, R. The Economics of Advertising. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.
214; And Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”, Journal of Marketing, vol.28(2),1964, p.25-80.
⑥San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.15,1975, p.11-16.
⑦Hooley, G. J.,&Lynch, J. E.“How UK Advertisers Set Budgets”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.
4(3),1985, p.223-231.
⑧Deleersnyder, Barbara, Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation Across Continents. Journal of MarketingResearch, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636; And Picard, R. G.“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”.Ideas Magazine,2001b, p.4-9.
⑨Srivastava, Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: Does Proactive MarketingDuring a Recession Pay Off?”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.22,2005, p.109-125.
①Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”. Marketing Science InstituteSpecial Report,2009, p.109-205.
②Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Jan-Benedicter, Steenkamp, E. M.,&Leeflang, P.“How Business CyclesContribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States and Europe”, loiiniat of Marketing,2007,p.1-15.
③Direct Marketing.“Advertising During A Recession”, Retrieved11,4,2011, from AllBusiness.com,(1,9,1991): http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing-advertising/advertising/260415-1.html
④Garbett, T. F.“What Happens When Corporate Ad Budgets Are Cut?” Public Relations Journal, vol.39(11),1983, p.25-26,31.
⑤Eg. Biel,&L., A.“Reduced Advertising and Its Impact on Profitability and Market Share in a Recession”, Ine. John Philip Jones, How Advertising Works: The Role of Research, CA: Sage.1998, p.297-307; And Dhalla, N.K.“Advertising as an Antirecession Tool”, Harvard Business Review,1980(1-2), p.158-165.
⑥Asker, D., Batra, R.,&Meyers, J. Advertising Management (4th ed. ed.). Englewood Cliffs: NJ:Prentice Hall,1992, p.97.
⑦Albion, M. S. The Advertising Controversy, Boston: Auburn House,1981, p.145
⑧Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”, Marketing Science InstituteSpecial Report,2009, p.109-205.
⑨ColleyH.Russell. Defining Advertising Goals for Measuring Advertising Results, New York: Association ofNational Advertisers.1961, p.27.
①Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Frameworkfor Analysis”, Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998, p.2-18.
②Chauvin, W., K.,&Hirschey, M.“Advertising,R&D Expenditures and the Market Value of the Firm”,Financial Management,22(Winter),1993, p.128-140; Connolly, R. A.,&Hirschey, M. RD,“Market Structureand Profits: A Value-Based Approach”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.66,1984, p.683-686; AndPeles, Y.“Amortization of Advertising Expenditures in the Financial Statements”. Journal of AccountingResearch, Vol.8(Spring),1970, p.128-137.
③Day, G. S.,&Fahey, a. L.“Valuing Market Strategies”, Journal of Marketing, vol.52,1988, p.45-57.
④Eg. Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis ofCausality”, Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980, p.1149-1167; And SchmalenseeR. The Economics of Advertising,Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.45.
⑤SchmalenseeR. The Economics of Advertising, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.48.also see in Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
⑥Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
⑦郑燕宁：《广告与GDP关系：中国实证研究》，《现代传播》2011年3月，第161-162页。
⑧Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.20(6),1980, p.11-16.
①Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”,International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003, p.81-90; Also see in Blank, D. M.“Cyclicalbehavior of national advertising”, The Journal of Business, vol.35(1),1962, p.14-27; Borden, N. H.“Findingsof the Harvard study on the economic effects of advertising”. Journal of Marketing, vol.6(4),1942, p.89-99;And Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
②Banks, S.“Cross-national analysis of advertising expenditures:1968-1979”. Journal of Advertising Research,vol.26(2),1986, p11-24.
③Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations.” The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Eg. Demers, D. P. Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National AdvertisingExpenditures”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1994, p.31-48; And Dimmick, J.“The Theory of theNiche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
⑤陈羽、邝国良：《“产业升级”的理论内核及研究思路述评》，《改革》2009年第10期，第86页。
⑥赵红岩：《全球价值链下长三角嵌链式的升级模式》.北京：科学出版社，2009年第7页。
⑦孙宝强：《产业升级理论研究中的争论与反思》，《天津商业大学学报》2011年第31卷第4期，第58-62页。
①杨效宏：《产业结构转型与中国广告产业发展》，《广告大观理论版》2011年2月，第49-51页
②杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉：《广告产业环境变化与发展的思考》，《企业经济》2011年第2期，第92-94页。
③廖秉宜：《中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析》，《国际新闻界》2010年9月，第83-87页。
④杨柳、郑敏：《中国广告产业发展中相关问题研究——传媒广告问题研究》，《大众商务》2009年3月，第49-51页。
⑤廖秉宜：《中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析》，《国际新闻界》2010年9月，第83-87页。
⑥母晓文：《中国广告产业传播模式的多维选择与定位》，《中国报业》2007年7月（下）,第85-86页。
⑦杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉：《广告产业环境变化与发展的思考》，《企业经济》2011年第2期，第92-94页。
①Rossana, R. J. Macroeconomics. London: Routledge,2011, p.59.
②Blendon, R.,&Benson, J.“America's Response to a Deep Recession”, Challenge, vol.52(4),2009, p.32-52.
③Kitchin, J.“Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”, Review of Economics and Statistics,1923, p.10-16.
⑤Kuznets, S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices, Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930, p.209.
①AivazovAlexander,&KobyakovAndrey.“Nikolai Kondratiev’s ‘Long Wave’: The Mirror of the Global Economic Crisis”. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Global Research,(11,27,2008): http://www.globalresearch.ca/nikolai-kondratiev-s-long-wave-the-mirror-of-the-global-economic-crisis/
②Eg. Bauer, P.“The Economics of Marketing Reform”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.62,1954, p.
210-235; Galbraith, John,&Rich Holton. Marketing Efficiency in Puerto Rico. Cambridge: Harvard UniversityPress,1955, p.42; Holton, R.“Marketing Structure and Economic Development”, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, vol.67(3),1953, p.344-361; And Holton, R.“Food Retailing and Economic Growth”, Journal ofFarm Economics, vol.38(2),1956, p.356-360.
③Eg. Bucklin, L. Competition and Evolution in Distributive Trades, Englewood Cliffs: NJ: Prentice Hall,1972,p.175; And Goldman, A.“Growth of Large Food Stores in a Developing Economy”, Journal of Retailing, vol.
50（Summer）,1974, p.50-60.
④Savitt, R.“The State of the Art in Marketing and Economic Development”, Research in Marketing, vol.4(4),1988, p.11-37.
①Dobbs, R. F., Karakolev, T.,&Malige, F.“Learning to Love Recessions”, The McKinsey Quarterly（SpecialEdition Issue）, vol.2,2002, p.6-9.
②WACR (World Advertising Research Center). World Advertising Trends2005. Oxfordshire: WorldAdvertising Research Center,2005, p.7.
③Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.1970, p.131-132.
①McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”, Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972,p.67; And McCombs,M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”, Journal of Communication, vol.30(1),1980, p.153-158.
②Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
③Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
④Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America, Columbia: ColumbiaUniversity Press,2000, p.71.
⑤McChesney, R. W. Telecommunications, Mass media, and Democracy: The Battle for The Control of U.S.Broadcasting,1928-1935(2ed.). Oxcford: Oxford University Press,1995, p.10-11
⑥Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America, Columbia: ColumbiaUniversity Press,2000, p.77.
⑦Meehan, E. R. Why TV Is Not Our Fault: Television Programming, Viewers, And Who's Really in Control.Lanham: Rowman&Littlefield,2005, p.33-34
⑧EwenStuart. Captains of Consciousness: Advertising and the Social Roots of the Consumer Culture, NewYork: McGraw-Hill,1976, p.154.
①Aegis Group."Carat issues new global ad spending growth forecasts for2009and2010”, Retrieved2,8,2012from Aegis,(10,9,2009): http://www.aegisplc.com/ags/media/groupreleases/grouprel2009/2009-10-01/.
②Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis ofCausality”, Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980, p.1149-1167.
③Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”, Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.10(1),1995, p.41-52.
④Eg. Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”, AppliedEconomics Letters, vol.7(8),2000, p.505-508.
⑤Eg. Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”, Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.10(1),1995, p.41-52.
⑥Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”,Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
⑦Hofstede, G.“Management Scientists Are Human”, Management Science,40,1994, p.4-13; Also see inSchneider, S. C.,&Jean-Louis, B. Managing Across Cultures (2nd ed.). London: FT Prentice Hall,2002, p.115.
①Lamey, Lien, Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G.,&Steenkamp, J.-B. E.“How Business Cycles Contribute toPrivate-Label Success: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe”, Journal of Marketing,71,2007, p.1-15.
②Christiano, L. J.,&Fitzgerald, T. J.“The Business Cycle: It’s Still a Puzzle”, Economic Perspectives, vol.22(4),1998, pp.56-83.
③Eg. Bronnenberg, B. J., Mela, C. F.,&Boulding, W.“The Periodicity of Pricing”, Journal of MarketingResearch,43,2006, p.477-493; And Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidencein Europe: United in Diversity”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007, p.113-127.
④Eg. Chowdhury, A. R.“Advertising Expenditures and the Macro-Economy: Some New Evidence”,International Journal of Advertising, vol.13(1),1994, p.1-14; And Quarles, R. C.,&Jeffres, L. W.“Advertising and National Consumption: A Path Analytic Re-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument”,Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2), p.4-33.
⑤Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”, Applied EconomicsLetters, vol.7(8),2000, p.505-508.
⑥Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”, The Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
⑦Didow, N. M.,&Franke, G. R.“Measurement Issues in Time-Series Research: Reliability and ValidityAssessment in Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Advertising”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.21,1984, p.12-19.
⑧Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“The Role ofNational Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journalof Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
②Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①growth of ggyye指广告营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of ggyye指广告营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of zzyye指杂志营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of dsggyye指电视营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of gbggyye指广播营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①gggyye share in GDDP指广告营业业额在GDP中所所在比率。
①bzyye share in GDP指报纸广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①zzyye share in GDP指杂志广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①dsyye share in GDP指电视广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①gbyye share in GDP指广播广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-200
3, Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
②King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited: Criteria ofImportance to Large-company Advertising Managers”, Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising,vol.26,2004, p.59-68.
③Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by NationalAdvertisers”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348; Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39; Shaver,M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in The NewspaperIndustry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
④Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2003,Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
①Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (6th ed.), New York: Dryden,1995,p.61.
②Gabszewicz, J. J., Laussel, D.,&Sonnac, N.“Competition in The Media and Advertising Markets”, TheManchester School, vol.1,2006, p.1-22.
③Wise, A. S.,&Duwadi, K.“Competition Between Cable Television And Direct Broadcast Satellite: TheImportance Of Switching Costs And Regional Sports Networks”, Journal of Competition Law and Economics,vol.1(4),2005, p.679-705.
④Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting”, RAND Journal ofEconomics,vol.3,1999a, p.397-420.
⑤Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Public Radio in The United States: Does it Correct Market Failure orCannibalize Commercial Stations?“, Journal of Public Economics,1999b, p.189-211.
①George, L.,&Waldfogel,L.“Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets?”, Journal of PoliticalEconomy, vol.111(4),2003, p.765-785.
②Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition Among MediaInterests”, Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984, p.109-119
③Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition Between the Cable and BroadcastIndustries:A niche Analysis”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(1),1992, p.13-30; And Dimmick, J.“TheTheory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”, Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
④Seelig, M.“Web Economics: The Added Value of the Web for Daily Newspapers and Commercial TelevisionStations”, Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, vol.3(1),2011, p.81-96: Also see in Marketing Week.“INTERACTIVE: The Internet Complements, Not Replaces, Classic Media”, Marketing Week,2007, p.27;Gentzkow, M.“Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers”, The AmericanEconomic Review, vol.97(3),2007, p.713-744.
⑤Ester, D. W., Klaus, S.,&Edmund, L.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement for PrintNewspapers and Other Information Channels?”, Communications, vol.1,2005, p.55-72.
⑥Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”, The HarvardInternational Journal ofPress/Politics, vol.11(1),2006, p.29-52.
⑦Mitchelstein, E.,&Boczkowski, P.“Online News Consumption Research: An Assessment of Past Work andAn Agenda for The Future”, New Media&Society, vol.12(7),2010, p.1085-1102.
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (6th ed.), New York: Dryden,1995,p.202-206.
③Busterna, J. C.“The Cross-elasticity of Demand for National Newspaper Advertising”, Journalism Quarterly,vol.16,1987, p.346-351.
④Ekelund, R. B., Ford, J. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? An Empirical Analysis”. Journal Review of Industrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999, p.239-256; Bush, C.A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in Local Business Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf; Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by National Advertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348.
⑤Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39
⑥Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”, The HarvardInternational Journal ofPress/Politics, vol.11(1),2006, p.29-52.
⑦King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited: Criteria ofImportance to Large-company Advertising Managers”, Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising,vol.26,2004, p.59-68; Also see in Nowak, G. J., Cameron, G. T.,&Krugman, D. M.“How Local AdvertisersChoose and Use Advertising Media”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.33(6),1993, p.39-49.
①Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.42; Also see in Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.48.
②Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.50.
③Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.44.
④Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.47
⑤McCullough, B. D.,&Waldon, T.“The Substitutability of Network and National Spot Television Advertising:QJBE QJFA QJBE”, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,1998, p.3-15.
⑥Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑦Bridges, J. A., Litman, B. R.,&Bridges, L.“Rosse’s Model Revisited: Moving to Concentric Circles toExplain Newspaper Competition”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.15(1),2002, p.3-19.
⑧Kranenburg, H. L.“Economic Effects of Consolidations of Publishers and Newspapers in The Netherlands”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(2),2001, p.61-76.
⑨Dertouzos, J. N.,&Trautman, W. B.“Economic Effects of Media Concentration: Estimates from a Model ofthe Newspaper Firm”, The Journal of Industrial Economics, vol.39(1),1990, p.1-14.
⑩Ferguson, J. M.“Daily Newspaper Advertising Rates, Local Media Cross-ownership, Newspaper chains, andMedia Competition”, Journal of Law and Economics, vol.26(3),1983, p.635-654; Also see in Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage in Daily Newspapers”,Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
11Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
①Eg. Seldon, B. J.,&Jung, C.“Derived Demand for Advertising Messages and Substitutability Among theMedia”, The Quarterly Review of Economica and Finance, vol.33(1),1993, p.71-86; Lee, B.,&Tremblay, V. J.“Advertising and The US Market Demand for Beer”, Applied Economics, vol.24,1992, p.69-76; Nelson, J.“Advertising Bans, Monopoly, and Alcohol Demand: Testing for Substitution Effects using State Panel Data”,Review of Industrial Organization, vol.22(1),2003, p.1-25; Nelson, J.“Beer Advertising and MarketingUpdate: Structure, Conduct, and Social Costs”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.26(3),2005, p.269-306;Nelson, J.,&Young, D.“Do Advertising Bans Work? An International Comparison”, International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.20(3),2001, p.273-296.
②Frank, M. W.“Media Substitution in Advertising: A Spirited Case Study”. International Journal of IndustrialOrganization, vol.26,2008, p.308-326.
③Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations.” The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”. In R. G. Picard (Ed.), MeasuringMedia Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in Content Research, Turku, Finland: TurkuSchool of Economics and Business Administration,2000, p22-50.
⑤Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑥Eg. Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: Astudy of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly,vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307; And Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”,Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑦Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in TheNewspaper Industry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
⑧Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744; Also see in
Smith, K.“Advertisers’ Media Selection in Small Newspaper Markets”, Newspaper Research Journal,Vol.19,1998,30-44.
①Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”. In R. G. Picard (Ed.), MeasuringMedia Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in Content Research, Turku, Finland: TurkuSchool of Economics and Business Administration,2000, p22-50.
②Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
③Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in TheNewspaper Industry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
④Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑤Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.8(4),1995, p.29-45.
⑥媒体置换与广告收益的部分内容作为作者的阶段性研究成果已发表在《中国报业》2010年第10期。
⑦假设杜绝媒体置换，媒体的广告收益为П1，而存在媒体置换的时候，媒体的广告收益为П2，那么潜在的广告收益损失为П1-П2。П1一定大于等于П2，原因我们会在下面的经济分析框架下进行解释。
①金碚：《报业经济学》，北京：经济管理出版社2002年版，第6-8页。
②吴文虎：《新闻事业经营管理》，北京：高等教育出版社2006年版，第65页。
③Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.52.
①Abraham, M. M.,&Lodish, L. M.“An Implemented System for Improving Promotion Productivity UsingStore Scanner Data”, Marketing Science, vol.12(3),1993, p.248-269.
②Mela, C. F., Jedidi, K.,&Bowman, D.“The Long-Term Impact of Promotions on Consumer StockpilingBehavior”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.35,1998, p.250-262.
③Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
④Deleersnyder, Barbara, Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation Across Continents”, Journal of MarketingResearch, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636
⑤Eg. Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessions?” Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003; And Srinivasan, R., Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G.
L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: Does Proactive Marketing during a Recession Pay off?” InternationalJournal of Research in Marketing, vol.22(2),2005, p.109-125.
①Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessions?” Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003
②Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Frameworkfor Analysis”, Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998, p.2-18.
③White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”, Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.36,1996, p.43-52; Also see in Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining theOptimal Level of Media Spending”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
④Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidence in Europe: United in Diversity”,International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007, p.113-127.
⑤Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations acrossNations, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001, p.361.
⑥Low, G. S.,&Mohr, J. J.“Setting Advertising and Promotion Budgets in Multi-Brand Companies”, Journalof Advertising Research, vol.39,1999, p.67-78.
⑦Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and Cultural Change asInformation Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992, p.992-1026.
①Saunders, John, Philip, S., Wensley, R.,&Forrester, R.“In Search of the Lemmus Lemmus: An Investigationinto Convergent Competition. British Journal of Management”, vol.11(Special Issue),2000, p.81-95.
②San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”, Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.15,1975, p.11-16.
③Barwise, T. P. Advertising in a Recession:The Benefits of Investing for the Long Term. Henley-on-Thames, UK:NTC Publications Ltd,1999, p.121.
④Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
⑤“Cuts in UK Advertising to Be ‘Sharpest’ Since9/11”, Financial Times, July142008, p.3.
⑥“The Advertising Market: Hard Sell”, The Economics, January262008, p.61-62.
⑦Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and Cultural Change asInformation Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992, p.992-1026.
⑧White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”, Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.36,1996, p.43-52
⑨Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations across
Nations, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001, p.360.
①Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
②Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Watsonz, R. T.,&Clapper, D. L.“Computer-Mediated Communication and MajorityInfluence: Assessing the Impact in an Individualistic and a Collectivistic Culture”, Management Science, vol.44(9),1998, p.1263-1278.
③Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P. S.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journal of MarketingResearch,46(5),2008, p.623-636.
④Jensen, M. C.,&Meckling, W. H.“Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and OwnershipStructure”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol.3(4),1976, p.305-360.
⑤Jacobson, R.,&Aaker, D.“MyopicManagement Behavior With Efficient, But Imperfect, Financial Markets”,Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol.16(4),1993, p.383-405.
⑥Hess, G. D.,&Shin, K.“International and Intranational Business Cycles”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy,vol.13(3),1997, p.93-109.
⑦Carlin, W., Charlton, A.,&Mayer, C. Multinational Ownership and Subsidiary Investment. Retrieved1,13,2013, from Social Science Research Network,(21,3,2006): http://ssrn.com/abstract=958505
⑧Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?” The Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
②Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
③Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Eg. Picard, R. G,“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”. Ideas Magazine,2001b, p.4-9; AndPicard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of Economic Downturnsin Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; And Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑤Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
⑥严峻：《金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业》，《东南传播》2010年9月，第38-39页。
⑦Groves, M.“Advertising Recovery Deferred to2004”, Ideas Magazine,1,2004, p.18-19.
⑧Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①慧聪网所给出的2011年行业排名top10是房地产、机动车、服装服饰、旅游餐饮、医疗服务、化妆及卫生用品、媒体出版、家居家装、金融保险和药品。
①Peneder, M.“Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,14,2003, p.427-448.
②Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; Also seein Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
③林毅夫：《新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架》，《经济学季刊》2010年第10卷第1期,第1-31页。
④Kuznets, S.“Quantitative Aspects of The Economic Growth of Nations: Long Term Trends in CapitalFormation Proportions”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.9,1961, p.1-124.
⑤Fisher, A. G. B.“Production, primary, secondary and tertiary”, Economic Record, vol.15,1939, p.24-38;And Clark, C. G. Condition of economic progress. London: Macmillan Press,1940, p.23.
①Peneder, M.“Intangible Investment and Human Resources”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, vol.12(1-2),2002a, p.107-134.
②Peneder. M.“Entry,Age and Sectoral Specialisation of Viennese Firms”, Austrian Economic Quarterly, vol.3,2002b, p.109-120.
③王延军、温娇秀、吴静茹：《产业结构变动与我国宏观经济波动》，《华东经济管理》2011年第25卷第2期，第21-23页。
④刘显铭：《产业结构变化与我国宏观经济波动探究——基于格兰杰因果关系的研究》，《经济与法》2012年第271期，第187页。
⑤Rostow, W. W. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto，Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press,1960, p.71.
⑥Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”, American Economic Review,vol. vol.65(2),1975, p.310-316.
⑦Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D.,&Velasco, A.“Growth diagnostics”, In N. Serra,&J. E. Stiglitz, The WashingtonConsensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, Oxford: Oxford University Press.2005,p.324-355.
⑧Pasinetti, L. Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on The Dynamics of The Wealthof Nations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1981, p.214-217.
⑨刘志彪、安同良：《中国产业结构演变与经济增长》，《南京社会科学》2002年第1期，第1-4页。
①李龙新：《产业发展与经济周期关系的讨论》提交给“世界管理论坛”的论文，上海外国语大学，2005年，第7页。
②董琨、原毅军：《中国产业结构演变与经济波动关系研究》，《大连理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2007年第28卷第2期,第9-12页。
③孙广生：《经济波动与产业波动（1986-2003）——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究》，《中国社会科学》，2006年第3期，第62-73页。
④匡亚斌：《产业结构与经济波动分析》，《甘肃农业》2006年第5期，第43页。
⑤李云娥：《宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究》，《山东大学学报》2008年第5期，第120-126页。
⑥Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”, Decision Sciences,vol.23(3),1992, p.758-769.
⑦Boone, L. E. Management perspectives in marketing, Encino, CA: Dickenson Pub Co.1972, p.11
①Stanton, W. Fundamentals of Marketing. New York: McGraw-Hill,1981, p.79.
②Corey, E. Industrial Marketing. Englewood, Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.1976, p.26.
③Cable, J.“Market Structure, Advertising Policy and Intermarket Differences in Advertising Intensity”, In K.Cowling (Ed.), Market Structure and Corporate Behavior. London: Macmillan Pub Co,1972, p.134-152.
④Advertising Age.“Advertising to sales ratios by industry”, Retrieved127,2013, from Advertising Age,(2012,628): http://adage.com/article/datacenter-advertising-spending/advertising-sales-ratios-industry/106575/.
⑤Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: Some Cross-SectionalAnalyses”, Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979, p.112-122.
⑥Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and Promotional Expenditures:Key Correlates in”, Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68.
⑦Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”, Decision Sciences,vol.23(3),1992, p.758-769.
⑧Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?” International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
⑨Doyle, G. Understanding Media Economics, London: Sage.2002, p.2-9.
⑩Lee, C. Y.“Advertising, Its Determinants, and Market Structure”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.21(1),2002, p.89-101.
11Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”,International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003, p.81-90.
①Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
②Aczel, J.“US computer Industry-Growth Despite Recession”, Data Processing, vol.25(5),1983, p.37-39.
③芳草地：“王振堂:PC成生活必需品经济衰退对PC业影响小”，检索日期:2013年2月18日，来源:搜狐IT，(2008年10月17日)： http://it.sohu.com/20081017/n260085007.shtml.
④Corgel, J.,&Woodworth, M.“Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain Relatively Strong--WhatGives? And What Might Give?”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, vol.53(4),2012, p.270-273.
⑤Cantor, M. B.,&Rosentraub, M. S.“Are Gaming and Sport Effective Tourism Strategies During EconomicContractions? Evidence from The Performance of Baseball and Casinos During America's Great Recession”,Journal of Sport&Tourism, vol.17(1),2012, p.23-42.
百度百科：对比分析法[EB/OL].[2011,11,1].百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/1248932.htm?func=retitle
百度百科：统计模型[EB/OL].[2011,11,1].百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/198013.htm
陈羽、邝国良.“产业升级”的理论内核及研究思路述评[J].改革.2009(10):86.
董琨、原毅军.中国产业结构演变与经济波动关系研究[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版).2007,28(2):9-12.
范鲁彬.中国广告三十年：全数据[M].北京：中国市场出版社，2009.
芳草地.王振堂： PC成生活必需品经济衰退对PC业影响小[EB/OL].(2008.10.17)[2013.2.18].搜狐IT： http://it.sohu.com/20081017/n260085007.shtml.
付洪良、周应恒.食品行业增长波动与经济波动的相关性分析[J].经济问题.2012(2):110-113.
戈毅娟.媒介置换的效率：经济学视角分析[J].中国报业.2011.7(上):43-45。
郝倩.《第一财经日报》：化妆品公司遭遇艰难时局新兴市场成救命稻草[EB/OL].(2008,11,21)[2012,9,22].复旦新闻文化网：http://news.fudan.edu.cn/2008/1121/19970.html.
黄升民.金融危机下的广告业应对与发展[J].广告人.2009:122.
蒋毅、毕开顺.经济危机对中国医药产业的影响[J].医药导报，2010,29(8):1110-1113.
金碚.报业经济学[M].北京：经济管理出版社，2002.
孔庆辉.宏观经济波动、周期型行业和资本结构选择[J].北京理工大学学报（社会科学版），2010,12(6):31-35.
孔庆辉.宏观经济波动对防守型行业[J].现代商业，2010(6):83.
匡亚斌.产业结构与经济波动分析[J].甘肃农业，2006(5):43.
李龙新.产业发展与经济周期关系的讨论[C]，世界管理论坛.上海外国语大学，2005.
李晓玲.金融海啸下，传媒业的命运与突围[J].传媒观察，2008.12:29-30.
李云娥.宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究[J].山东大学学报，2008(5):120-126.
廖秉宜.中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析[J].国际新闻界，2010(9):83-87.
林蕾.金融危机对电视广告的影响及对策[J].青年记者，2009(4):75.
林毅夫.新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架[J].经济学季刊，2010,10(1):1-31.
刘显铭.产业结构变化与我国宏观经济波动探究——基于格兰杰因果关系的研究[J].经济与法，2012(271):187.
刘志彪、安同良.中国产业结构演变与经济增长[J].南京社会科学，2002(1):1-4.
闵阳..全球经济危机对我国传媒产业的影响与应对[J].陕西理工学院学报（社会科学版），2009,27(2):51-55.
母晓文.中国广告产业传播模式的多维选择与定位[J].中国报业，2007.7(下)：85-86.
彭伟步.次贷危机对美国传媒业的影响[J].中国记者，2008.12:65-67.
日月.美国报纸平面广告开支连续20季度下降[EB/OL].(2011.9.2)[2013.2.16].新浪财经：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20110902/004410419991.shtml.
孙宝强.产业升级理论研究中的争论与反思[J].天津商业大学学报，2011,31(4):58-62.
孙广生.经济波动与产业波动（1986-2003）——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究[J].中国社会科学,2006(3):62-73.
田涛.2009年中国广告市场剧变[J].成功营销，2009:48-49.
王延军、温娇秀、吴静茹.产业结构变动与我国宏观经济波动[J].华东经济管理，2011,25(2):21-23.
吴文虎.新闻事业经营管理[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2006.
严峻.金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业[J].东南传播，2010.9:38-39.
杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉.广告产业环境变化与发展的思考[J].企业经济，2011(2):92-94.
杨效宏.产业结构转型与中国广告产业发展[J].广告大观理论版，2011.2:49-51.
杨有志.建筑业内在行业结构经济波动的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报，2011,33(3):112-113.
杨柳、郑敏.中国广告产业发展中相关问题研究——传媒广告问题研究[J].大众商务，2009.3，49-51.
于超.透视金融危机下的报刊广告[J].新闻与写作，2009.5:9-10.
赵洪明.金融危机下电视广告发展前瞻[J].经营管理，2009.5:43-45.
赵红岩.全球价值链下长三角嵌链式的升级模式[M].北京：科学出版社，2009.
郑燕宁.广告与GDP关系：中国实证研究[J].现代传播，2011.3:161-162.
周艳、李遥.金融危机中的海外广告市场[EB/OL].(2009.6.10)[2011.11.6].新华网： http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2009-06/10/content_11517918.htm
“Cuts in UK Advertising to Be ‘Sharpest’ Since9/11”[N], Financial Times, July142008:3.
“The Advertising Market: Hard Sell”[N], The Economics, January262008:61-62.
Abraham, M. M.,&Lodish, L. M.“An Implemented System for Improving PromotionProductivity Using Store Scanner Data”[J], Marketing Science, vol.12(3),1993:248-269.
Aczel, J.“US computer Industry-Growth Despite Recession”[J], Data Processing, vol.25(5),1983:37-39.
Advertising Age.“Advertising to sales ratios by industry”[J/OL], Retrieved1,27,2013,from Advert-ising Age,(2012,6,28): http://adage.com/article/datacenter-advertising-spending/advertising-sales-ratios-industry/106575/.
Aegis Group."Carat issues new global ad spending growth forecasts for2009and2010”[R/OL], Retrieved2,8,2012, from Aegis,(10,9,2009): http://www.aegisplc.com/ags/media/groupreleases/grouprel2009/2009-10-01/.
Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”[J], The HarvardInternationalJournal of Press/Politics, vol.11(1),2006:29-52.
AivazovAlexander,&KobyakovAndrey.“Nikolai Kondratiev’s ‘Long Wave’: The Mirrorof the Global Economic Crisis”[J/OL]. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Global Research,(11,27,2008): http://www.globalresearch.ca/nikolai-kondratiev-s-long-wave-the-mirror-of-the-global-economic-crisis/
Albion, M. S. The Advertising Controversy [M], Boston: Auburn House,1981.
Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”[J]. International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003:81-90.
Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: AnAnalysis of Causality”[J]. Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980:1149-1167.
Asker, D., Batra, R.,&Meyers, J. Advertising Management [M].(4th ed.). Englewood Cliffs:NJ:Prentice Hall.
Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and PromotionalExpenditures: Key Correlates in”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990:57-68.
Banks, S.“Cross-national analysis of advertising expenditures:1968-1979”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.26(2),1986, p11-24.
Barwise, T. P. Advertising in a Recession: The Benefits of Investing for the Long Term [M].Henley-on-Thames, UK: NTC Publications Ltd,1999:121.
Bauer, P.“The Economics of Marketing Reform”[J]. Journal of Political Economy, vol.62,1954:210-235.
Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting”[J].RAND Journal of Economics,vol.3,1999a:397-420.
Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Public Radio in The United States: Does it Correct Market Failureor Cannibalize Commercial Stations?”[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999b:189-211.
Biel,&L., A.“Reduced Advertising and Its Impact on Profitability and Market Share in aRecession”[J]//John Philip Jones, How Advertising Works: The Role of Research, CA:Sage.1998:297-307.
Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and CulturalChange as Information Cascades”[J]. Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992:992-1026.
Blank, D. M.“Cyclical behavior of national advertising”[J]. The Journal of Business, vol.35(1),1962:14-27.
Blendon, R.,&Benson, J.“America's Response to a Deep Recession”[J]. Challenge, vol.52(4),2009:32-52.
Boone, L. E. Management perspectives in marketing [M]. Encino, CA: Dickenson Pub Co.1972.
Borden, N. H.“Findings of the Harvard study on the economic effects of advertising”[J].Journal of Marketing, vol.6(4),1942:89-99.
Bridges, J. A., Litman, B. R.,&Bridges, L.“Rosse’s Model Revisited: Moving to ConcentricCircles to Explain Newspaper Competition”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.15(1),2002, p.3-19.
Bronnenberg, B. J., Mela, C. F.,&Boulding, W.“The Periodicity of Pricing”[J]. Journal ofMarketing Research,43,2006:477-493.
Bucklin, L. Competition and Evolution in Distributive Trades[M], Englewood Cliffs: NJ:Prentice Hall,1972.
Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in Local Business Sales”[R/OL]. Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf.
Busterna, J. C.“The Cross-elasticity of Demand for National Newspaper Advertising”[J].Journalism Quarterly, vol.16,1987:346-351.
Cable, J.“Market Structure, Advertising Policy and Intermarket Differences in AdvertisingIntensity”[J]//K. Cowling (Ed.), Market Structure and Corporate Behavior. London:Macmillan Pub Co,1972:134-152.
Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”[J]. International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.5(3),1986:215-224.
Cantor, M. B.,&Rosentraub, M. S.“Are Gaming and Sport Effective Tourism StrategiesDuring Economic Contractions? Evidence from The Performance of Baseball and CasinosDuring America's Great Recession”[J]. Journal of Sport&Tourism, vol.17(1),2012:23-42.
Cardona, M. M.“Local-market Pricing Issues Strain Ad-market Recovery”[J]. Advertising Age,74(40),2003:8.
Carlin, W., Charlton, A.,&Mayer, C.“Multinational Ownership and Subsidiary Investment”[J/OL]. Retrieved1,13,2013, from Social Science Research Network,(21,3,2006): http://ssrn.com/abstract=958505
Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy of Advertising Spending ACross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”[J].Gazette, vol.64(7),2005:339-357.
Chauvin, W., K.,&Hirschey, M.“Advertising,R&D Expenditures and the Market Value of theFirm”[J]. Financial Management,22(Winter),1993:128-140.
Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”[J]. American EconomicReview,vol.65(2),1975:310-316.
Chiplin, B.,&Sturgess, B. Econimics of Advertising [M].2nd ed. London: Holt, Rinehart andWinston.1981.
Chowdhury, A. R.“Advertising Expenditures and the Macro-Economy: Some New Evidence”[J]. International Journal of Advertising, vol.13(1),1994:1-14.
Christiano, L. J.,&Fitzgerald, T. J.“The Business Cycle: It’s Still a Puzzle”[J]. EconomicPerspectives, vol.22(4),1998, pp.56-83.
Clark, C. G. Condition of economic progress [M]. London: Macmillan Press,1940:23.
ColleyH.Russell. Defining Advertising Goals for Measuring Advertising Results [M]. New York:Association of National Advertisers.1961.
Connolly, R. A.,&Hirschey, M. RD,“Market Structure and Profits: A Value-Based Approach”[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.66,1984:683-686.
Corey, E. Industrial Marketing. Englewood, Cliffs [M], NJ: Prentice-Hall.1976.
Corgel, J.,&Woodworth, M.“Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain RelativelyStrong--What Gives? And What Might Give?”[J]. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, vol.53(4),2012:270-273.
Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America [M],Columbia: Columbia University Press,2000.
Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.34,1994:28-34.
Day, G. S.,&Fahey, a. L.“Valuing Market Strategies”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.52,1988:45-57.
De Waal, E., Schoenbach, K.,&Lauf, E.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement forPrint Newspapers and Other Information Channels?”[J]. Communications, vol.30,2005:55-72.
Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Jan-Benedicter, Steenkamp, E. M.,&Leeflang, P.“HowBusiness Cycles Contribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States andEurope”[J]. Loiiniat of Marketing,2007:1-15.
Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H."TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigationacross Continents”[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008:623-636.
Demers, D. P.“Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National AdvertisingExpenditures”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1995:31-48.
Dertouzos, J. N.,&Trautman, W. B.“Economic Effects of Media Concentration: Estimatesfrom a Model of the Newspaper Firm”[J]. The Journal of Industrial Economics, vol.39(1),1990:1-14.
Dhalla, N. K.“Advertising as an Antirecession Tool”[J]. Harvard Business Review,1980(1-2):158-165.
Didow, N. M.,&Franke, G. R.“Measurement Issues in Time-Series Research: Reliability andValidity Assessment in Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Advertising”[J]. Journalof Marketing Research, vol.21,1984:12-19.
Dimmick, J.“The Theory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘VideoRevolution’”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997:33-43.
Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition between the Cable andBroadcast Industries: A niche Analysis”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(1),1992:13-30.
Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition AmongMedia Interests”[J]. Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984:109-119.
Dipasquale, C. B.,&Fine, J,“PM: Last Call for Magazines”[J]. Advertising Age, vol.73(5),1,2002:31.
Direct Marketing.“Advertising During A Recession”[J/OL]. Retrieved11,4,2011, fromAllBusiness.com,(1,9,1991): http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing-advertising/advertising/260415-1.html
Dobbs, R. F., Karakolev, T.,&Malige, F.“Learning to Love Recessions”[J]. The McKinseyQuarterly（Special Edition Issue）, vol.2,2002:6-9.
Doyle, G. Understanding Media Economics [M], London: Sage.2002.
Duyn, A. v. Online advertisers may gain from downturn [N/OL]. Retrieved216,2013,fr-om FT,(2007,923): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bd95d94-69f7-11dc-a571-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz2MdtfzbP2/.
Ekelund, R. B., Ford, J. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? AnEmpirical Analysis”[J]. Journal Review of Industrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999:239-256.
Ester, D. W., Klaus, S.,&Edmund, L.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement forPrint Newspapers and Other Information Channels?”[J]. Communications, vol.1,2005:55-72.
EwenStuart. Captains of Consciousness: Advertising and the Social Roots of the ConsumerCulture [M], New York: McGraw-Hill,1976:154.
Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: SomeCross-Sectional Analyses”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979:112-122.
Ferguson, J. M.“Daily Newspaper Advertising Rates, Local Media Cross-ownership,Newspaper chains, and Media Competition”[J]. Journal of Law and Economics, vol.26(3),1983:635-654.
Fisher, A. G. B.“Production, primary, secondary and tertiary”[J]. Economic Record, vol.15,1939: p.24-38.
Frank, M. W.“Media Substitution in Advertising: A Spirited Case Study”[J]. InternationalJournal of Industrial Organization, vol.26,2008:308-326.
Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising ExpendituresDuring Recessions?”[R]. Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003.
Gabszewicz, J. J., Laussel, D.,&Sonnac, N.“Competition in The Media and AdvertisingMarkets”[J]. The Manchester School, vol.1,2006:1-22.
Galbraith, John,&RichHolton. Marketing Efficiency in Puerto Rico [M]. Cambridge: HarvardUniversity Press,1955.
Garbett, T. F.“What Happens When Corporate Ad Budgets Are Cut?”[J]. Public RelationsJournal, vol.39(11),1983:25-26,31.
Gentzkow, M.“Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers”[J].The American Economic Review, vol.97(3),2007:713-744.
George, L.,&Waldfogel,L.“Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets?”[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy, vol.111(4),2003:765-785.
Glascock, J.“Effect of Cable Television on Advertiser and Consumer Spending on Mass Media”[J]. Journalism Quarterly, vol.70(3),1993:509-517.
Goldman, A.“Growth of Large Food Stores in a Developing Economy”[J]. Journal of Retailing,vol.50（Summer）,1974:50-60.
Groves, M.“Advertising Recovery Deferred to2004”[J]. Ideas Magazine,1,2004:18-19.
Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D.,&Velasco, A.“Growth diagnostics”[J]//N. Serra,&J. E. Stiglitz,The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, Oxford:Oxford University Press.2005:324-355.
Hess, G. D.,&Shin, K.“International and Intranational Business Cycles”[J]. Oxford Review ofEconomic Policy, vol.13(3),1997:93-109.
Hofstede, G.“Management Scientists Are Human”[J]. Management Science,40,1994:4-13.
Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, andOrganizations across Nations [M], Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001.
Holton, R.“Food Retailing and Economic Growth”[J]. Journal of Farm Economics, vol.38(2),1956:356-360.
Holton, R.“Marketing Structure and Economic Development”[J]. Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, vol.67(3),1953:344-361.
Hooley, G. J.,&Lynch, J. E.“How UK Advertisers Set Budgets”[J]. International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.4(3),1985:223-231.
Jacobson, R.,&Aaker, D.“MyopicManagement Behavior With Efficient, But Imperfect,Financial Markets”[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol.16(4),1993:383-405.
Jensen, M. C.,&Meckling, W. H.“Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs,and Ownership Structure”[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, vol.3(4),1976:305-360.
Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”[J]. International Journal of Advertising,vol.4(1),1985:47-64.
Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”[J]. Reviewof Industrial Organization, vol.10(1),1995:41-52.
King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited:Criteria of Importance to Large-company Advertising Managers”[J]. Journal of CurrentIssues and Research in Advertising, vol.26,2004:59-68.
Kitchin, J.“Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1923:10-16.
Kranenburg, H. L.“Economic Effects of Consolidations of Publishers and Newspapers in TheNetherlands”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(2),2001:61-76.
Kuznets, S.“Quantitative Aspects of The Economic Growth of Nations: Long Term Trends inCapital Formation Proportions”[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.9,1961:1-124.
Kuznets, S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices [M]. Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930.
Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”[J]//R. G. Picard (Ed.),Measuring Media Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in ContentResearch, Turku, Finland: Turku School of Economics and Business Administration,2000,p22-50.
Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”[J]. Newspaper ResearchJournal, vol.25(1),2004:18-39.
Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of RelativeConstancy”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997:3-16.
Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers [M].Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993.
Lamey, Lien, Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G.,&Steenkamp, J.-B. E.“How Business CyclesContribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe”[J]. Journal ofMarketing,71,2007:1-15.
Lee, B.,&Tremblay, V. J.“Advertising and The US Market Demand for Beer”. AppliedEconomics, vol.24,1992:69-76.
Lee, C. Y.“Advertising, Its Determinants, and Market Structure”[J]. Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.21(1),2002:89-101.
Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidence in Europe: United inDiversity”[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007:113-127.
Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”. Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002,1-2.
Lisa, O'Malleya, Story Vicky, and O'Sullivan Vicky.“Marketing in A Recession: Retrench orInvest?”[J]. Journal of Strategic Marketing, vol.19(3),2011:285-310.
Low, G. S.,&Mohr, J. J.“Setting Advertising and Promotion Budgets in Multi-BrandCompanies”[J]. Journal of Advertising Research, vol.39,1999:67-78.
Marketing Week.“INTERACTIVE: The Internet Complements, Not Replaces, Classic Media”[J]. Marketing Week,2007:27.
Maxwell, A.,&Wanta, W.“Advertising Agencies Reduce Reliance on Newspaper Ads”[J].Newspaper Research Journal, vol.22(2),2001:51-65.
McChesney, R. W. Telecommunications, Mass media, and Democracy: The Battle for TheControl of U.S. Broadcasting,1928-1935[M].2ed. Oxcford: Oxford University Press,1995:10-11
McCombs, M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”[J]. Journal of Communication,vol.30(1),1980:153-158.
McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”[J]. Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972:67.
McCullough, B. D.,&Waldon, T.“The Substitutability of Network and National SpotTelevision Advertising: QJBE QJFA QJBE”[J]. Quarterly Journal of Business andEconomics, vol.2,1998:3-15.
Meehan, E. R. Why TV Is Not Our Fault: Television Programming, Viewers, And Who's Reallyin Control [M]. Lanham: Rowman&Littlefield,2005.
Mela, C. F., Jedidi, K.,&Bowman, D.“The Long-Term Impact of Promotions on ConsumerStockpiling Behavior”[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, vol.35,1998:250-262.
Mitchelstein, E.,&Boczkowski, P.“Online News Consumption Research: An Assessment ofPast Work and An Agenda for The Future”[J]. New Media&Society, vol.12(7),2010:1085-1102.
Nelson, J.“Advertising Bans, Monopoly, and Alcohol Demand: Testing for Substitution Effectsusing State Panel Data”[J]. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.22(1),2003:1-25.
Nelson, J.“Beer Advertising and Marketing Update: Structure, Conduct, and Social Costs”[J].Review of Industrial Organization, vol.26(3),2005:269-306.
Nelson, J.,&Young, D.“Do Advertising Bans Work? An International Comparison”[J].International Journal of Advertising, vol.20(3),2001:273-296.
Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions [M].6th ed. New York:Dryden,1995.
Nowak, G. J., Cameron, G. T.,&Krugman, D. M.“How Local Advertisers Choose and UseAdvertising Media”[J]. Journal of Advertising Research, vol.33(6),1993:39-49.
Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”[J]. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.20(6),1980:11-16.
Pasinetti, L. Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on The Dynamics ofThe Wealth of Nations [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1981.
Peles, Y.“Amortization of Advertising Expenditures in the Financial Statements”[J]. Journal ofAccounting Research, Vol.8(Spring),1970:128-137.
Peneder, M.“Intangible Investment and Human Resources”[J]. Journal of EvolutionaryEconomics, vol.12(1-2),2002a:107-134.
Peneder. M.“Entry,Age and Sectoral Specialisation of Viennese Firms”[J]. Austrian EconomicQuarterly, vol.3,2002b:109-120.
Peneder, M.“Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth”[J]. Structural Change and EconomicDynamics,14,2003:427-448.
Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues [M]. Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989.
Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure:An Exploratory Study ofEconomic Downturns in Nine Developed Nations”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics,vol.14(1),2001a:1-14
Picard, R. G.“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”[J]. Ideas Magazine,2001b:4-9.
Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”[J]. Newspaper ResearchJournal, vol.23(4),2002:21-33.
Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in DifferentCountries”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification onNewspaper Companies”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999:43-52.
Quarles, R. C.,&Jeffres, L. W.“Advertising and National Consumption: A Path AnalyticRe-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument”[J]. Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2):4-33.
Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability inNationaladvertising: A study of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”[J].Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000:292-307.
Reid, L. N., King, K. W., Martin, H. J.,&Soh, H.“Local Advertising Decision MakersPerceptions of Media Effectiveness and Substitutability”[J]. Journal of Media Economics,vol.18(1),2005:35-53.
Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”[J].The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(2),1994:29-38.
Rossana, R. J. Macroeconomics [M]. London: Routledge,2011.
Rostow, W. W. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1960.
Saksena, S.,&Hollifield, C. A.“U.S. Newspapers and the Development of Online Editions”[J].International Journal on Media Management, vol.4(2),2002:75-84.
San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.15,1975:11-16.
Saunders, John, Philip, S., Wensley, R.,&Forrester, R.“In Search of the Lemmus Lemmus: AnInvestigation into Convergent Competition. British Journal of Management”[J]. vol.11(Special Issue),2000:81-95.
Savitt, R.“The State of the Art in Marketing and Economic Development”[J]. Research inMarketing, vol.4(4),1988:11-37.
Schmalensee, R. The Economics of Advertising [M]. Amsterdam: North-Holland PublishingCompany,1972:214.
Schneider, S. C.,&Jean-Louis, B. Managing Across Cultures [M].2nd ed. London: FT PrenticeHall,2002.
Seelig, M.“Web Economics: The Added Value of the Web for Daily Newspapers andCommercial Television Stations”[J]. Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, vol.3(1),2011:81-96.
Seldon, B. J.,&Jung, C.“Derived Demand for Advertising Messages and SubstitutabilityAmong the Media”[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economica and Finance, vol.33(1),1993:71-86.
Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategyin The Newspaper Industry”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995:49-59.
Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition onAdvertising Linage in Daily Newspapers”[J]. Journalism and Mass CommunicationQuarterly, vol.76(4),1999:729-744.
Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessionary Periods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”[C]. Paperpresented at the Asian-American Academy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand byNational Advertisers”[J]. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002:323-348.
Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising [M]. Urbana: University of Illinois Press,1970.
Smith, K.“Advertisers’ Media Selection in Small Newspaper Markets”[J]. NewspaperResearch Journal, Vol.19,1998,30-44.
Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”[J]. Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.8(4),1995:29-45.
Srinivasan, R., Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: DoesProactive Marketing during a Recession Pay off?”[J]. International Journal of Research inMarketing, vol.22(2),2005:109-125.
Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: AFramework for Analysis”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998:2-18.
Srivastava, Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: DoesProactive Marketing During a Recession Pay Off?”[J]. International Journal of Researchin Marketing, vol.22,2005:109-125.
Stanton, W. Fundamentals of Marketing [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill,1981.
Swerdlow, R. A.,&Blessios, V. I.“A Model for Predicting Advertising Expenditures: AnInter-industry Comparison”[J]. International Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2),1993:143-153.
Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Watsonz, R. T.,&Clapper, D. L.“Computer-Mediated Communicationand Majority Influence: Assessing the Impact in an Individualistic and a CollectivisticCulture”[J]. Management Science, vol.44(9),1998:1263-1278.
Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”[J]. MarketingScience Institute Special Report,2009:109-205.
Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”[J].Applied Economics Letters, vol.7(8),2000:505-508.
WACR (World Advertising Research Center). World Advertising Trends2005[R]. Oxfordshire:World Advertising Research Center,2005.
Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”[R/OL]. Media Bureau Staff ResearchPapers,2002-2003, Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”[J].Journal of Advertising Research, vol.36,1996:43-52.
Wikipedia.“Juglar cycle”[G/OL]. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Wilipedia,(8,18,2012):http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juglar_cycle
Wise, A. S.,&Duwadi, K.“Competition Between Cable Television And Direct BroadcastSatellite: The Importance Of Switching Costs And Regional Sports Networks”[J]. Journalof Competition Law and Economics, vol.1(4),2005:679-705.
Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”[J]. Journal of Marketing,vol.28(2),1964:25-80.
Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”[J].Decision Sciences, vol.23(3),1992:758-769.
Zinkhan, G. M.,&Hirschheim, R.“Truth in Marketing Theory and Research: An AlternativePerspective”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.56(2),1992, pp.80-88.
②Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
③Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy ofAdvertising Spending A Cross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants",Gazette, vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357;
①Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
②Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
③Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
④Lisa, O'Malleya, Story Vicky, and O'Sullivan Vicky."Marketing in A Recession: Retrench or Invest?" Journalof Strategic Marketing, vol.19(3),2011, p.285-310.
⑤Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”,Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
①Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
②Eg. Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; Linnett, R."Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2; Picard, R. G."EconomicGrowth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.21,2008: p.28-52.
③日月：《美国报纸平面广告开支连续20季度下降》，检索日期:2013年2月16日，来源：新浪财经，(2011年9月2日)：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20110902/004410419991.shtml，。
④Duyn, A. v. Online advertisers may gain from downturn. Retrieved216,2013, from FT,(2007,923):http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bd95d94-69f7-11dc-a571-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz2MdtfzbP2
⑤周艳、李遥：《金融危机中的海外广告市场》，检索日期:2011年11月6日，来源：新华网，(2009年6月10日)： http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2009-06/10/content_11517918.htm
①郝倩：《第一财经日报》：化妆品公司遭遇艰难时局新兴市场成救命稻草，检索日期:2012年9月22日，来源：复旦新闻文化网，(2008年11月21日)： http://news.fudan.edu.cn/2008/1121/19970.html
②Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and Promotional Expenditures:Key Correlates in”. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68.
③Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: Some Cross-SectionalAnalyses”, Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979, p.112-122.
④Eg. Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and PromotionalExpenditures: Key Correlates in”. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68; Zinkhan, G. M.,&Hirschheim, R.“Truth in Marketing Theory and Research: An Alternative Perspective”, Journal of Marketing,vol.56(2),1992, pp.80-88.
⑤Eg. Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”, American Economic Review, vol.65(2),1975, p.310-316; Kuznets, S., Secular Movements in Production and Prices, Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930, p.56-58; and Rostow, W. W., The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto, Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1960, p.15.
⑥孔庆辉：《宏观经济波动对防守型行业》，《现代商业》2010年第6期，第83页。
⑦孔庆辉：《宏观经济波动、周期型行业和资本结构选择》，《北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）》2010年第12卷第6期，第31-35页。
⑧付洪良、周应恒：《食品行业增长波动与经济波动的相关性分析》，《经济问题》2012年第2期，第110-113页。
⑨蒋毅、毕开顺：《经济危机对中国医药产业的影响》，《医药导报》2010年第29卷第8期,第1110-1113页。
⑩杨有志：《建筑业内在行业结构经济波动的实证分析》，《山西财经大学学报》2011年第33卷第3期，第112-113页。
①Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.1970, p.131-132.
②Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
③Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
④Eg. Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures inDifferent Media in Different Countries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Eg. Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in DifferentCountries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.; Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G.,Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“The Role of National Culture in Advertising’sSensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636; Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media inDifferent Countries”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press,1970, p.213.
②Chiplin, B.,&Sturgess, B. Econimics of Advertising (2nd ed. ed.). London: Holt, Rinehart and Winston.1981,p.97-98.
③Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
④Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
⑤Swerdlow, R. A.,&Blessios, V. I.“A Model for Predicting Advertising Expenditures: An Inter-industryComparison”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2),1993, p.143-153.
⑥Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver."Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
⑦Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
⑧McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”, Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972,p.67; And McCombs,M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”, Journal of Communication, vol.30(1),1980, p.153-158.
⑨Dimmick, J.“The Theory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
⑩Demers, D. P.“Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National Advertising Expenditures”,The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1995, p.31-48.
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②Glascock, J.“Effect of Cable Television on Advertiser and Consumer Spending on Mass Media”, JournalismQuarterly, vol.70(3),1993, p.509-517.
③Eg. Cardona, M. M.“Local-market Pricing Issues Strain Ad-market Recovery”. Advertising Age,2003,p.74(40), p.8; Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”. Journal of Advertising Research,20(6),1980, p.11-16; And Dipasquale, C. B.,&Fine, J,“PM: Last Call for Magazines”, Advertising Age,vol.73(5),1,2002, p.31; And Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted.“Relative Constancy of AdvertisingSpending A Cross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”, Gazette,vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357.
④Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy of Advertising Spending A Cross-nationalExamination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”, Gazette, vol.64(7),2005, p.339-357.
⑤彭伟步：《次贷危机对美国传媒业的影响》，《中国记者》2008年第12月，第65-67页。
⑥李晓玲：《金融海啸下，传媒业的命运与突围》，《传媒观察》2008年12月，第29-30页。
⑦田涛：《2009年中国广告市场剧变》，《成功营销》2009年，第48-49页。
⑧闵阳.：《全球经济危机对我国传媒产业的影响与应对》，《陕西理工学院学报（社会科学版）》2009年第27卷第2期，第51-55页。
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②黄升民：《金融危机下的广告业应对与发展》，《广告人》2009年，第122页。
③Eg. Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005; And Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on AdvertisingExpenditure: An Exploratory Study of Economic Downturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14
④Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; AndPicard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑤Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession:Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
⑥于超：《透视金融危机下的报刊广告》，《新闻与写作》2009年5月，第9-10页。
⑦严峻：《金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业》，《东南传播》2010年9月，第38-39页。
⑧Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”. Journal of Marketing, vol.28(2),1964, p.25-80.
⑨Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.20(6),1980, p.11-16.
①Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2.
②Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in LocalBusiness Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002):http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf
③赵洪明：《金融危机下电视广告发展前瞻》，《经营管理》2009年5月，第43-45页。
④林蕾：《金融危机对电视广告的影响及对策》，《青年记者》2009年4月，第75页。
⑤Eg. Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”, Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002:1-2; AndSaksena, S.,&Hollifield, C. A.“U.S. Newspapers and the Development of Online Editions”, InternationalJournal on Media Management, vol.4(2),2002, p.75-84.
⑥Eg. De Waal, E., Schoenbach, K.,&Lauf, E.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement for Print Newspapers and Other Information Channels?” Communications, vol.30,2005, p.55-72; AndWaldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2003,Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9.2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
⑦Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by NationalAdvertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2001, p.323-348.
⑧Eg.Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in LocalBusiness Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002):http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf; Ekelund, R. B., Jr., Ford, G. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? An empirical analysis”, Journal Review ofindustrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999, p.239-256; And Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“IntermediaSubstitutability and Market Demand by National Advertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348.
⑨Eg. Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39; Maxwell, A.,&Wanta, W.“Advertising Agencies Reduce Reliance on Newspaper Ads”,Newspaper Research Journal, vol.22(2),2001, p.51-65; And Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side Viewof Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: A study of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional MediaOptions”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307.
①Eg.Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition Among MediaInterests”, Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984, p.109-119; And Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition Between the Cable and Broadcast Industries:A niche Analysis”, Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.5(1),1992, p.13-30.
②Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
③Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.8(4),1995, p.29-45.
④Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: A study ofAdvertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307; Reid, L. N., King, K. W., Martin, H. J.,&Soh, H.“Local Advertising Decision MakersPerceptions of Media Effectiveness and Substitutability”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.18(1),2005, p.35-53.
⑤Schmalensee, R. The Economics of Advertising. Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.
214; And Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”, Journal of Marketing, vol.28(2),1964, p.25-80.
⑥San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.15,1975, p.11-16.
⑦Hooley, G. J.,&Lynch, J. E.“How UK Advertisers Set Budgets”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.
4(3),1985, p.223-231.
⑧Deleersnyder, Barbara, Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation Across Continents. Journal of MarketingResearch, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636; And Picard, R. G.“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”.Ideas Magazine,2001b, p.4-9.
⑨Srivastava, Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: Does Proactive MarketingDuring a Recession Pay Off?”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.22,2005, p.109-125.
①Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”. Marketing Science InstituteSpecial Report,2009, p.109-205.
②Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Jan-Benedicter, Steenkamp, E. M.,&Leeflang, P.“How Business CyclesContribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States and Europe”, loiiniat of Marketing,2007,p.1-15.
③Direct Marketing.“Advertising During A Recession”, Retrieved11,4,2011, from AllBusiness.com,(1,9,1991): http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing-advertising/advertising/260415-1.html
④Garbett, T. F.“What Happens When Corporate Ad Budgets Are Cut?” Public Relations Journal, vol.39(11),1983, p.25-26,31.
⑤Eg. Biel,&L., A.“Reduced Advertising and Its Impact on Profitability and Market Share in a Recession”, Ine. John Philip Jones, How Advertising Works: The Role of Research, CA: Sage.1998, p.297-307; And Dhalla, N.K.“Advertising as an Antirecession Tool”, Harvard Business Review,1980(1-2), p.158-165.
⑥Asker, D., Batra, R.,&Meyers, J. Advertising Management (4th ed. ed.). Englewood Cliffs: NJ:Prentice Hall,1992, p.97.
⑦Albion, M. S. The Advertising Controversy, Boston: Auburn House,1981, p.145
⑧Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”, Marketing Science InstituteSpecial Report,2009, p.109-205.
⑨ColleyH.Russell. Defining Advertising Goals for Measuring Advertising Results, New York: Association ofNational Advertisers.1961, p.27.
①Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Frameworkfor Analysis”, Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998, p.2-18.
②Chauvin, W., K.,&Hirschey, M.“Advertising,R&D Expenditures and the Market Value of the Firm”,Financial Management,22(Winter),1993, p.128-140; Connolly, R. A.,&Hirschey, M. RD,“Market Structureand Profits: A Value-Based Approach”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.66,1984, p.683-686; AndPeles, Y.“Amortization of Advertising Expenditures in the Financial Statements”. Journal of AccountingResearch, Vol.8(Spring),1970, p.128-137.
③Day, G. S.,&Fahey, a. L.“Valuing Market Strategies”, Journal of Marketing, vol.52,1988, p.45-57.
④Eg. Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis ofCausality”, Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980, p.1149-1167; And SchmalenseeR. The Economics of Advertising,Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.45.
⑤SchmalenseeR. The Economics of Advertising, Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company,1972, p.48.also see in Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
⑥Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
⑦郑燕宁：《广告与GDP关系：中国实证研究》，《现代传播》2011年3月，第161-162页。
⑧Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.20(6),1980, p.11-16.
①Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”,International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003, p.81-90; Also see in Blank, D. M.“Cyclicalbehavior of national advertising”, The Journal of Business, vol.35(1),1962, p.14-27; Borden, N. H.“Findingsof the Harvard study on the economic effects of advertising”. Journal of Marketing, vol.6(4),1942, p.89-99;And Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
②Banks, S.“Cross-national analysis of advertising expenditures:1968-1979”. Journal of Advertising Research,vol.26(2),1986, p11-24.
③Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations.” The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Eg. Demers, D. P. Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National AdvertisingExpenditures”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1994, p.31-48; And Dimmick, J.“The Theory of theNiche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
⑤陈羽、邝国良：《“产业升级”的理论内核及研究思路述评》，《改革》2009年第10期，第86页。
⑥赵红岩：《全球价值链下长三角嵌链式的升级模式》.北京：科学出版社，2009年第7页。
⑦孙宝强：《产业升级理论研究中的争论与反思》，《天津商业大学学报》2011年第31卷第4期，第58-62页。
①杨效宏：《产业结构转型与中国广告产业发展》，《广告大观理论版》2011年2月，第49-51页
②杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉：《广告产业环境变化与发展的思考》，《企业经济》2011年第2期，第92-94页。
③廖秉宜：《中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析》，《国际新闻界》2010年9月，第83-87页。
④杨柳、郑敏：《中国广告产业发展中相关问题研究——传媒广告问题研究》，《大众商务》2009年3月，第49-51页。
⑤廖秉宜：《中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析》，《国际新闻界》2010年9月，第83-87页。
⑥母晓文：《中国广告产业传播模式的多维选择与定位》，《中国报业》2007年7月（下）,第85-86页。
⑦杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉：《广告产业环境变化与发展的思考》，《企业经济》2011年第2期，第92-94页。
①Rossana, R. J. Macroeconomics. London: Routledge,2011, p.59.
②Blendon, R.,&Benson, J.“America's Response to a Deep Recession”, Challenge, vol.52(4),2009, p.32-52.
③Kitchin, J.“Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”, Review of Economics and Statistics,1923, p.10-16.
⑤Kuznets, S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices, Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930, p.209.
①AivazovAlexander,&KobyakovAndrey.“Nikolai Kondratiev’s ‘Long Wave’: The Mirror of the Global Economic Crisis”. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Global Research,(11,27,2008): http://www.globalresearch.ca/nikolai-kondratiev-s-long-wave-the-mirror-of-the-global-economic-crisis/
②Eg. Bauer, P.“The Economics of Marketing Reform”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.62,1954, p.
210-235; Galbraith, John,&Rich Holton. Marketing Efficiency in Puerto Rico. Cambridge: Harvard UniversityPress,1955, p.42; Holton, R.“Marketing Structure and Economic Development”, Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, vol.67(3),1953, p.344-361; And Holton, R.“Food Retailing and Economic Growth”, Journal ofFarm Economics, vol.38(2),1956, p.356-360.
③Eg. Bucklin, L. Competition and Evolution in Distributive Trades, Englewood Cliffs: NJ: Prentice Hall,1972,p.175; And Goldman, A.“Growth of Large Food Stores in a Developing Economy”, Journal of Retailing, vol.
50（Summer）,1974, p.50-60.
④Savitt, R.“The State of the Art in Marketing and Economic Development”, Research in Marketing, vol.4(4),1988, p.11-37.
①Dobbs, R. F., Karakolev, T.,&Malige, F.“Learning to Love Recessions”, The McKinsey Quarterly（SpecialEdition Issue）, vol.2,2002, p.6-9.
②WACR (World Advertising Research Center). World Advertising Trends2005. Oxfordshire: WorldAdvertising Research Center,2005, p.7.
③Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.1970, p.131-132.
①McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”, Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972,p.67; And McCombs,M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”, Journal of Communication, vol.30(1),1980, p.153-158.
②Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”, International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
③Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”. International Journal of Advertising, vol.5(3),1986, p.215-224.
④Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America, Columbia: ColumbiaUniversity Press,2000, p.71.
⑤McChesney, R. W. Telecommunications, Mass media, and Democracy: The Battle for The Control of U.S.Broadcasting,1928-1935(2ed.). Oxcford: Oxford University Press,1995, p.10-11
⑥Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America, Columbia: ColumbiaUniversity Press,2000, p.77.
⑦Meehan, E. R. Why TV Is Not Our Fault: Television Programming, Viewers, And Who's Really in Control.Lanham: Rowman&Littlefield,2005, p.33-34
⑧EwenStuart. Captains of Consciousness: Advertising and the Social Roots of the Consumer Culture, NewYork: McGraw-Hill,1976, p.154.
①Aegis Group."Carat issues new global ad spending growth forecasts for2009and2010”, Retrieved2,8,2012from Aegis,(10,9,2009): http://www.aegisplc.com/ags/media/groupreleases/grouprel2009/2009-10-01/.
②Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis ofCausality”, Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980, p.1149-1167.
③Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”, Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.10(1),1995, p.41-52.
④Eg. Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”, AppliedEconomics Letters, vol.7(8),2000, p.505-508.
⑤Eg. Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”, Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.10(1),1995, p.41-52.
⑥Barbara, Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”,Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
⑦Hofstede, G.“Management Scientists Are Human”, Management Science,40,1994, p.4-13; Also see inSchneider, S. C.,&Jean-Louis, B. Managing Across Cultures (2nd ed.). London: FT Prentice Hall,2002, p.115.
①Lamey, Lien, Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G.,&Steenkamp, J.-B. E.“How Business Cycles Contribute toPrivate-Label Success: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe”, Journal of Marketing,71,2007, p.1-15.
②Christiano, L. J.,&Fitzgerald, T. J.“The Business Cycle: It’s Still a Puzzle”, Economic Perspectives, vol.22(4),1998, pp.56-83.
③Eg. Bronnenberg, B. J., Mela, C. F.,&Boulding, W.“The Periodicity of Pricing”, Journal of MarketingResearch,43,2006, p.477-493; And Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidencein Europe: United in Diversity”, International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007, p.113-127.
④Eg. Chowdhury, A. R.“Advertising Expenditures and the Macro-Economy: Some New Evidence”,International Journal of Advertising, vol.13(1),1994, p.1-14; And Quarles, R. C.,&Jeffres, L. W.“Advertising and National Consumption: A Path Analytic Re-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument”,Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2), p.4-33.
⑤Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”, Applied EconomicsLetters, vol.7(8),2000, p.505-508.
⑥Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”, The Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
⑦Didow, N. M.,&Franke, G. R.“Measurement Issues in Time-Series Research: Reliability and ValidityAssessment in Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Advertising”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.21,1984, p.12-19.
⑧Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①Deleersnyder, Dekimpe Marnik G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H.“The Role ofNational Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journalof Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636.
②Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①growth of ggyye指广告营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of ggyye指广告营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of zzyye指杂志营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of dsggyye指电视营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①growth of gbggyye指广播营业额的增长率，growth of the GDP实际GDP的增长率。
①gggyye share in GDDP指广告营业业额在GDP中所所在比率。
①bzyye share in GDP指报纸广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①zzyye share in GDP指杂志广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①dsyye share in GDP指电视广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①gbyye share in GDP指广播广告营业额在GDP中所在比率。
①Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-200
3, Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
②King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited: Criteria ofImportance to Large-company Advertising Managers”, Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising,vol.26,2004, p.59-68.
③Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by NationalAdvertisers”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348; Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39; Shaver,M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in The NewspaperIndustry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
④Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”, Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2003,Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
①Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (6th ed.), New York: Dryden,1995,p.61.
②Gabszewicz, J. J., Laussel, D.,&Sonnac, N.“Competition in The Media and Advertising Markets”, TheManchester School, vol.1,2006, p.1-22.
③Wise, A. S.,&Duwadi, K.“Competition Between Cable Television And Direct Broadcast Satellite: TheImportance Of Switching Costs And Regional Sports Networks”, Journal of Competition Law and Economics,vol.1(4),2005, p.679-705.
④Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting”, RAND Journal ofEconomics,vol.3,1999a, p.397-420.
⑤Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Public Radio in The United States: Does it Correct Market Failure orCannibalize Commercial Stations?“, Journal of Public Economics,1999b, p.189-211.
①George, L.,&Waldfogel,L.“Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets?”, Journal of PoliticalEconomy, vol.111(4),2003, p.765-785.
②Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition Among MediaInterests”, Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984, p.109-119
③Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition Between the Cable and BroadcastIndustries:A niche Analysis”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(1),1992, p.13-30; And Dimmick, J.“TheTheory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘Video Revolution’”, Journal of MediaEconomics, vol.10(3),1997, p.33-43.
④Seelig, M.“Web Economics: The Added Value of the Web for Daily Newspapers and Commercial TelevisionStations”, Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, vol.3(1),2011, p.81-96: Also see in Marketing Week.“INTERACTIVE: The Internet Complements, Not Replaces, Classic Media”, Marketing Week,2007, p.27;Gentzkow, M.“Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers”, The AmericanEconomic Review, vol.97(3),2007, p.713-744.
⑤Ester, D. W., Klaus, S.,&Edmund, L.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement for PrintNewspapers and Other Information Channels?”, Communications, vol.1,2005, p.55-72.
⑥Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”, The HarvardInternational Journal ofPress/Politics, vol.11(1),2006, p.29-52.
⑦Mitchelstein, E.,&Boczkowski, P.“Online News Consumption Research: An Assessment of Past Work andAn Agenda for The Future”, New Media&Society, vol.12(7),2010, p.1085-1102.
①Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of Relative Constancy”, TheJournal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997, p.3-16.
②Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions (6th ed.), New York: Dryden,1995,p.202-206.
③Busterna, J. C.“The Cross-elasticity of Demand for National Newspaper Advertising”, Journalism Quarterly,vol.16,1987, p.346-351.
④Ekelund, R. B., Ford, J. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? An Empirical Analysis”. Journal Review of Industrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999, p.239-256; Bush, C.A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in Local Business Sales” Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf; Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand by National Advertisers”. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002, p.323-348.
⑤Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39
⑥Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”, The HarvardInternational Journal ofPress/Politics, vol.11(1),2006, p.29-52.
⑦King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited: Criteria ofImportance to Large-company Advertising Managers”, Journal of Current Issues and Research in Advertising,vol.26,2004, p.59-68; Also see in Nowak, G. J., Cameron, G. T.,&Krugman, D. M.“How Local AdvertisersChoose and Use Advertising Media”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.33(6),1993, p.39-49.
①Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.42; Also see in Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.48.
②Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.50.
③Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.44.
④Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers. Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993, p.47
⑤McCullough, B. D.,&Waldon, T.“The Substitutability of Network and National Spot Television Advertising:QJBE QJFA QJBE”, Quarterly Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,1998, p.3-15.
⑥Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑦Bridges, J. A., Litman, B. R.,&Bridges, L.“Rosse’s Model Revisited: Moving to Concentric Circles toExplain Newspaper Competition”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.15(1),2002, p.3-19.
⑧Kranenburg, H. L.“Economic Effects of Consolidations of Publishers and Newspapers in The Netherlands”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(2),2001, p.61-76.
⑨Dertouzos, J. N.,&Trautman, W. B.“Economic Effects of Media Concentration: Estimates from a Model ofthe Newspaper Firm”, The Journal of Industrial Economics, vol.39(1),1990, p.1-14.
⑩Ferguson, J. M.“Daily Newspaper Advertising Rates, Local Media Cross-ownership, Newspaper chains, andMedia Competition”, Journal of Law and Economics, vol.26(3),1983, p.635-654; Also see in Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage in Daily Newspapers”,Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
11Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744.
①Eg. Seldon, B. J.,&Jung, C.“Derived Demand for Advertising Messages and Substitutability Among theMedia”, The Quarterly Review of Economica and Finance, vol.33(1),1993, p.71-86; Lee, B.,&Tremblay, V. J.“Advertising and The US Market Demand for Beer”, Applied Economics, vol.24,1992, p.69-76; Nelson, J.“Advertising Bans, Monopoly, and Alcohol Demand: Testing for Substitution Effects using State Panel Data”,Review of Industrial Organization, vol.22(1),2003, p.1-25; Nelson, J.“Beer Advertising and MarketingUpdate: Structure, Conduct, and Social Costs”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.26(3),2005, p.269-306;Nelson, J.,&Young, D.“Do Advertising Bans Work? An International Comparison”, International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.20(3),2001, p.273-296.
②Frank, M. W.“Media Substitution in Advertising: A Spirited Case Study”. International Journal of IndustrialOrganization, vol.26,2008, p.308-326.
③Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations.” The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”. In R. G. Picard (Ed.), MeasuringMedia Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in Content Research, Turku, Finland: TurkuSchool of Economics and Business Administration,2000, p22-50.
⑤Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑥Eg. Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability in Nationaladvertising: Astudy of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”, Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly,vol.77(2),2000, p.292-307; And Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”,Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑦Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in TheNewspaper Industry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
⑧Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition on Advertising Linage inDaily Newspapers”, Journalism and Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.76(4),1999, p.729-744; Also see in
Smith, K.“Advertisers’ Media Selection in Small Newspaper Markets”, Newspaper Research Journal,Vol.19,1998,30-44.
①Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”. In R. G. Picard (Ed.), MeasuringMedia Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in Content Research, Turku, Finland: TurkuSchool of Economics and Business Administration,2000, p22-50.
②Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
③Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategy in TheNewspaper Industry”, Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995, p.49-59.
④Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”, Newspaper Research Journal, vol.25(1),2004, p.18-39.
⑤Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”, Journal of Media Economics,vol.8(4),1995, p.29-45.
⑥媒体置换与广告收益的部分内容作为作者的阶段性研究成果已发表在《中国报业》2010年第10期。
⑦假设杜绝媒体置换，媒体的广告收益为П1，而存在媒体置换的时候，媒体的广告收益为П2，那么潜在的广告收益损失为П1-П2。П1一定大于等于П2，原因我们会在下面的经济分析框架下进行解释。
①金碚：《报业经济学》，北京：经济管理出版社2002年版，第6-8页。
②吴文虎：《新闻事业经营管理》，北京：高等教育出版社2006年版，第65页。
③Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues，Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989, p.52.
①Abraham, M. M.,&Lodish, L. M.“An Implemented System for Improving Promotion Productivity UsingStore Scanner Data”, Marketing Science, vol.12(3),1993, p.248-269.
②Mela, C. F., Jedidi, K.,&Bowman, D.“The Long-Term Impact of Promotions on Consumer StockpilingBehavior”, Journal of Marketing Research, vol.35,1998, p.250-262.
③Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
④Deleersnyder, Barbara, Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation Across Continents”, Journal of MarketingResearch, vol.46(5),2008, p.623-636
⑤Eg. Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessions?” Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003; And Srinivasan, R., Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G.
L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: Does Proactive Marketing during a Recession Pay off?” InternationalJournal of Research in Marketing, vol.22(2),2005, p.109-125.
①Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessions?” Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003
②Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: A Frameworkfor Analysis”, Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998, p.2-18.
③White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”, Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.36,1996, p.43-52; Also see in Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining theOptimal Level of Media Spending”, Journal of Advertising Research, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
④Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidence in Europe: United in Diversity”,International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007, p.113-127.
⑤Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations acrossNations, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001, p.361.
⑥Low, G. S.,&Mohr, J. J.“Setting Advertising and Promotion Budgets in Multi-Brand Companies”, Journalof Advertising Research, vol.39,1999, p.67-78.
⑦Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and Cultural Change asInformation Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992, p.992-1026.
①Saunders, John, Philip, S., Wensley, R.,&Forrester, R.“In Search of the Lemmus Lemmus: An Investigationinto Convergent Competition. British Journal of Management”, vol.11(Special Issue),2000, p.81-95.
②San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”, Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.15,1975, p.11-16.
③Barwise, T. P. Advertising in a Recession:The Benefits of Investing for the Long Term. Henley-on-Thames, UK:NTC Publications Ltd,1999, p.121.
④Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
⑤“Cuts in UK Advertising to Be ‘Sharpest’ Since9/11”, Financial Times, July142008, p.3.
⑥“The Advertising Market: Hard Sell”, The Economics, January262008, p.61-62.
⑦Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and Cultural Change asInformation Cascades”, Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992, p.992-1026.
⑧White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”, Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.36,1996, p.43-52
⑨Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, and Organizations across
Nations, Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001, p.360.
①Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.34,1994, p.28-34.
②Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Watsonz, R. T.,&Clapper, D. L.“Computer-Mediated Communication and MajorityInfluence: Assessing the Impact in an Individualistic and a Collectivistic Culture”, Management Science, vol.44(9),1998, p.1263-1278.
③Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp, J.-B. E.,&Leeflang, P. S.“The Role of National Culture inAdvertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigation across Continents”, Journal of MarketingResearch,46(5),2008, p.623-636.
④Jensen, M. C.,&Meckling, W. H.“Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs, and OwnershipStructure”, Journal of Financial Economics, vol.3(4),1976, p.305-360.
⑤Jacobson, R.,&Aaker, D.“MyopicManagement Behavior With Efficient, But Imperfect, Financial Markets”,Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol.16(4),1993, p.383-405.
⑥Hess, G. D.,&Shin, K.“International and Intranational Business Cycles”, Oxford Review of Economic Policy,vol.13(3),1997, p.93-109.
⑦Carlin, W., Charlton, A.,&Mayer, C. Multinational Ownership and Subsidiary Investment. Retrieved1,13,2013, from Social Science Research Network,(21,3,2006): http://ssrn.com/abstract=958505
⑧Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?” The Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.7(2),1994, p.29-38.
②Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification on NewspaperCompanies”. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999, p.43-52.
③Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
④Eg. Picard, R. G,“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”. Ideas Magazine,2001b, p.4-9; AndPicard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of Economic Downturnsin Nine Developed Nations”, The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; And Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”. Newspaper Research Journal, vol.23(4),2002, p.21-33.
⑤Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures During RecessionaryPeriods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”, Paper presented at the Asian-AmericanAcademy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
⑥严峻：《金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业》，《东南传播》2010年9月，第38-39页。
⑦Groves, M.“Advertising Recovery Deferred to2004”, Ideas Magazine,1,2004, p.18-19.
⑧Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
①Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14.
①慧聪网所给出的2011年行业排名top10是房地产、机动车、服装服饰、旅游餐饮、医疗服务、化妆及卫生用品、媒体出版、家居家装、金融保险和药品。
①Peneder, M.“Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth”, Structural Change and Economic Dynamics,14,2003, p.427-448.
②Picard, R.G."Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure: An Exploratory Study of EconomicDownturns in Nine Developed Nations", The Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(1),2001a, p.1-14; Also seein Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
③林毅夫：《新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架》，《经济学季刊》2010年第10卷第1期,第1-31页。
④Kuznets, S.“Quantitative Aspects of The Economic Growth of Nations: Long Term Trends in CapitalFormation Proportions”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.9,1961, p.1-124.
⑤Fisher, A. G. B.“Production, primary, secondary and tertiary”, Economic Record, vol.15,1939, p.24-38;And Clark, C. G. Condition of economic progress. London: Macmillan Press,1940, p.23.
①Peneder, M.“Intangible Investment and Human Resources”, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, vol.12(1-2),2002a, p.107-134.
②Peneder. M.“Entry,Age and Sectoral Specialisation of Viennese Firms”, Austrian Economic Quarterly, vol.3,2002b, p.109-120.
③王延军、温娇秀、吴静茹：《产业结构变动与我国宏观经济波动》，《华东经济管理》2011年第25卷第2期，第21-23页。
④刘显铭：《产业结构变化与我国宏观经济波动探究——基于格兰杰因果关系的研究》，《经济与法》2012年第271期，第187页。
⑤Rostow, W. W. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto，Cambridge: CambridgeUniversity Press,1960, p.71.
⑥Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”, American Economic Review,vol. vol.65(2),1975, p.310-316.
⑦Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D.,&Velasco, A.“Growth diagnostics”, In N. Serra,&J. E. Stiglitz, The WashingtonConsensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, Oxford: Oxford University Press.2005,p.324-355.
⑧Pasinetti, L. Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on The Dynamics of The Wealthof Nations, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1981, p.214-217.
⑨刘志彪、安同良：《中国产业结构演变与经济增长》，《南京社会科学》2002年第1期，第1-4页。
①李龙新：《产业发展与经济周期关系的讨论》提交给“世界管理论坛”的论文，上海外国语大学，2005年，第7页。
②董琨、原毅军：《中国产业结构演变与经济波动关系研究》，《大连理工大学学报(社会科学版)》2007年第28卷第2期,第9-12页。
③孙广生：《经济波动与产业波动（1986-2003）——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究》，《中国社会科学》，2006年第3期，第62-73页。
④匡亚斌：《产业结构与经济波动分析》，《甘肃农业》2006年第5期，第43页。
⑤李云娥：《宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究》，《山东大学学报》2008年第5期，第120-126页。
⑥Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”, Decision Sciences,vol.23(3),1992, p.758-769.
⑦Boone, L. E. Management perspectives in marketing, Encino, CA: Dickenson Pub Co.1972, p.11
①Stanton, W. Fundamentals of Marketing. New York: McGraw-Hill,1981, p.79.
②Corey, E. Industrial Marketing. Englewood, Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.1976, p.26.
③Cable, J.“Market Structure, Advertising Policy and Intermarket Differences in Advertising Intensity”, In K.Cowling (Ed.), Market Structure and Corporate Behavior. London: Macmillan Pub Co,1972, p.134-152.
④Advertising Age.“Advertising to sales ratios by industry”, Retrieved127,2013, from Advertising Age,(2012,628): http://adage.com/article/datacenter-advertising-spending/advertising-sales-ratios-industry/106575/.
⑤Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: Some Cross-SectionalAnalyses”, Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979, p.112-122.
⑥Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and Promotional Expenditures:Key Correlates in”, Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990, p.57-68.
⑦Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”, Decision Sciences,vol.23(3),1992, p.758-769.
⑧Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?” International Journal of Advertising, vol.4(1),1985, p.47-64.
⑨Doyle, G. Understanding Media Economics, London: Sage.2002, p.2-9.
⑩Lee, C. Y.“Advertising, Its Determinants, and Market Structure”, Review of Industrial Organization, vol.21(1),2002, p.89-101.
11Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”,International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003, p.81-90.
①Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in Different Countries”,Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
②Aczel, J.“US computer Industry-Growth Despite Recession”, Data Processing, vol.25(5),1983, p.37-39.
③芳草地：“王振堂:PC成生活必需品经济衰退对PC业影响小”，检索日期:2013年2月18日，来源:搜狐IT，(2008年10月17日)： http://it.sohu.com/20081017/n260085007.shtml.
④Corgel, J.,&Woodworth, M.“Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain Relatively Strong--WhatGives? And What Might Give?”, Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, vol.53(4),2012, p.270-273.
⑤Cantor, M. B.,&Rosentraub, M. S.“Are Gaming and Sport Effective Tourism Strategies During EconomicContractions? Evidence from The Performance of Baseball and Casinos During America's Great Recession”,Journal of Sport&Tourism, vol.17(1),2012, p.23-42.
百度百科：对比分析法[EB/OL].[2011,11,1].百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/1248932.htm?func=retitle
百度百科：统计模型[EB/OL].[2011,11,1].百度百科: http://baike.baidu.com/view/198013.htm
陈羽、邝国良.“产业升级”的理论内核及研究思路述评[J].改革.2009(10):86.
董琨、原毅军.中国产业结构演变与经济波动关系研究[J].大连理工大学学报(社会科学版).2007,28(2):9-12.
范鲁彬.中国广告三十年：全数据[M].北京：中国市场出版社，2009.
芳草地.王振堂： PC成生活必需品经济衰退对PC业影响小[EB/OL].(2008.10.17)[2013.2.18].搜狐IT： http://it.sohu.com/20081017/n260085007.shtml.
付洪良、周应恒.食品行业增长波动与经济波动的相关性分析[J].经济问题.2012(2):110-113.
戈毅娟.媒介置换的效率：经济学视角分析[J].中国报业.2011.7(上):43-45。
郝倩.《第一财经日报》：化妆品公司遭遇艰难时局新兴市场成救命稻草[EB/OL].(2008,11,21)[2012,9,22].复旦新闻文化网：http://news.fudan.edu.cn/2008/1121/19970.html.
黄升民.金融危机下的广告业应对与发展[J].广告人.2009:122.
蒋毅、毕开顺.经济危机对中国医药产业的影响[J].医药导报，2010,29(8):1110-1113.
金碚.报业经济学[M].北京：经济管理出版社，2002.
孔庆辉.宏观经济波动、周期型行业和资本结构选择[J].北京理工大学学报（社会科学版），2010,12(6):31-35.
孔庆辉.宏观经济波动对防守型行业[J].现代商业，2010(6):83.
匡亚斌.产业结构与经济波动分析[J].甘肃农业，2006(5):43.
李龙新.产业发展与经济周期关系的讨论[C]，世界管理论坛.上海外国语大学，2005.
李晓玲.金融海啸下，传媒业的命运与突围[J].传媒观察，2008.12:29-30.
李云娥.宏观经济波动与产业结构变动的实证研究[J].山东大学学报，2008(5):120-126.
廖秉宜.中国广告产业市场结构行为及绩效分析[J].国际新闻界，2010(9):83-87.
林蕾.金融危机对电视广告的影响及对策[J].青年记者，2009(4):75.
林毅夫.新结构经济学——重构发展经济学的框架[J].经济学季刊，2010,10(1):1-31.
刘显铭.产业结构变化与我国宏观经济波动探究——基于格兰杰因果关系的研究[J].经济与法，2012(271):187.
刘志彪、安同良.中国产业结构演变与经济增长[J].南京社会科学，2002(1):1-4.
闵阳..全球经济危机对我国传媒产业的影响与应对[J].陕西理工学院学报（社会科学版），2009,27(2):51-55.
母晓文.中国广告产业传播模式的多维选择与定位[J].中国报业，2007.7(下)：85-86.
彭伟步.次贷危机对美国传媒业的影响[J].中国记者，2008.12:65-67.
日月.美国报纸平面广告开支连续20季度下降[EB/OL].(2011.9.2)[2013.2.16].新浪财经：http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/20110902/004410419991.shtml.
孙宝强.产业升级理论研究中的争论与反思[J].天津商业大学学报，2011,31(4):58-62.
孙广生.经济波动与产业波动（1986-2003）——相关性、特征及推动因素的初步研究[J].中国社会科学,2006(3):62-73.
田涛.2009年中国广告市场剧变[J].成功营销，2009:48-49.
王延军、温娇秀、吴静茹.产业结构变动与我国宏观经济波动[J].华东经济管理，2011,25(2):21-23.
吴文虎.新闻事业经营管理[M]，北京：高等教育出版社，2006.
严峻.金融危机、新媒体、国家产业政策交互影响下的中国报业[J].东南传播，2010.9:38-39.
杨同庆、杨景越、许敏玉.广告产业环境变化与发展的思考[J].企业经济，2011(2):92-94.
杨效宏.产业结构转型与中国广告产业发展[J].广告大观理论版，2011.2:49-51.
杨有志.建筑业内在行业结构经济波动的实证分析[J].山西财经大学学报，2011,33(3):112-113.
杨柳、郑敏.中国广告产业发展中相关问题研究——传媒广告问题研究[J].大众商务，2009.3，49-51.
于超.透视金融危机下的报刊广告[J].新闻与写作，2009.5:9-10.
赵洪明.金融危机下电视广告发展前瞻[J].经营管理，2009.5:43-45.
赵红岩.全球价值链下长三角嵌链式的升级模式[M].北京：科学出版社，2009.
郑燕宁.广告与GDP关系：中国实证研究[J].现代传播，2011.3:161-162.
周艳、李遥.金融危机中的海外广告市场[EB/OL].(2009.6.10)[2011.11.6].新华网： http://news.xinhuanet.com/newmedia/2009-06/10/content_11517918.htm
“Cuts in UK Advertising to Be ‘Sharpest’ Since9/11”[N], Financial Times, July142008:3.
“The Advertising Market: Hard Sell”[N], The Economics, January262008:61-62.
Abraham, M. M.,&Lodish, L. M.“An Implemented System for Improving PromotionProductivity Using Store Scanner Data”[J], Marketing Science, vol.12(3),1993:248-269.
Aczel, J.“US computer Industry-Growth Despite Recession”[J], Data Processing, vol.25(5),1983:37-39.
Advertising Age.“Advertising to sales ratios by industry”[J/OL], Retrieved1,27,2013,from Advert-ising Age,(2012,6,28): http://adage.com/article/datacenter-advertising-spending/advertising-sales-ratios-industry/106575/.
Aegis Group."Carat issues new global ad spending growth forecasts for2009and2010”[R/OL], Retrieved2,8,2012, from Aegis,(10,9,2009): http://www.aegisplc.com/ags/media/groupreleases/grouprel2009/2009-10-01/.
Ahlers, D.“News Consumption and the New Electronic Media”[J], The HarvardInternationalJournal of Press/Politics, vol.11(1),2006:29-52.
AivazovAlexander,&KobyakovAndrey.“Nikolai Kondratiev’s ‘Long Wave’: The Mirrorof the Global Economic Crisis”[J/OL]. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Global Research,(11,27,2008): http://www.globalresearch.ca/nikolai-kondratiev-s-long-wave-the-mirror-of-the-global-economic-crisis/
Albion, M. S. The Advertising Controversy [M], Boston: Auburn House,1981.
Andras, T. L.,&Srinivasan, S. S.“Advertising Intensity and R&D Intensity: Differences across”[J]. International Journal of Business and Economics, vol.2,2003:81-90.
Ashley, R., Granger, C. W.,&Schmalensee, R.“Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: AnAnalysis of Causality”[J]. Econometrica, vol.48(5),1980:1149-1167.
Asker, D., Batra, R.,&Meyers, J. Advertising Management [M].(4th ed.). Englewood Cliffs:NJ:Prentice Hall.
Balasubramanian, S. K.,&Kumar, V.“Analyzing Variations in Advertising and PromotionalExpenditures: Key Correlates in”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.54(2),1990:57-68.
Banks, S.“Cross-national analysis of advertising expenditures:1968-1979”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.26(2),1986, p11-24.
Barwise, T. P. Advertising in a Recession: The Benefits of Investing for the Long Term [M].Henley-on-Thames, UK: NTC Publications Ltd,1999:121.
Bauer, P.“The Economics of Marketing Reform”[J]. Journal of Political Economy, vol.62,1954:210-235.
Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Free Entry and Social Inefficiency in Radio Broadcasting”[J].RAND Journal of Economics,vol.3,1999a:397-420.
Berry, S. T.,&Waldfogel, J.“Public Radio in The United States: Does it Correct Market Failureor Cannibalize Commercial Stations?”[J]. Journal of Public Economics,1999b:189-211.
Biel,&L., A.“Reduced Advertising and Its Impact on Profitability and Market Share in aRecession”[J]//John Philip Jones, How Advertising Works: The Role of Research, CA:Sage.1998:297-307.
Bikhchandani, S., Hirshleifer, D.,&Welch, I.“A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and CulturalChange as Information Cascades”[J]. Journal of Political Economy, vol.100(5),1992:992-1026.
Blank, D. M.“Cyclical behavior of national advertising”[J]. The Journal of Business, vol.35(1),1962:14-27.
Blendon, R.,&Benson, J.“America's Response to a Deep Recession”[J]. Challenge, vol.52(4),2009:32-52.
Boone, L. E. Management perspectives in marketing [M]. Encino, CA: Dickenson Pub Co.1972.
Borden, N. H.“Findings of the Harvard study on the economic effects of advertising”[J].Journal of Marketing, vol.6(4),1942:89-99.
Bridges, J. A., Litman, B. R.,&Bridges, L.“Rosse’s Model Revisited: Moving to ConcentricCircles to Explain Newspaper Competition”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.15(1),2002, p.3-19.
Bronnenberg, B. J., Mela, C. F.,&Boulding, W.“The Periodicity of Pricing”[J]. Journal ofMarketing Research,43,2006:477-493.
Bucklin, L. Competition and Evolution in Distributive Trades[M], Englewood Cliffs: NJ:Prentice Hall,1972.
Bush, C. A.“On the Substitutability of Local Newspaper, Radio, and Television Advertising in Local Business Sales”[R/OL]. Media Bureau Staff Research Papers,2002-2010, Retrieved11,6,2011, from,(2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A19.pdf.
Busterna, J. C.“The Cross-elasticity of Demand for National Newspaper Advertising”[J].Journalism Quarterly, vol.16,1987:346-351.
Cable, J.“Market Structure, Advertising Policy and Intermarket Differences in AdvertisingIntensity”[J]//K. Cowling (Ed.), Market Structure and Corporate Behavior. London:Macmillan Pub Co,1972:134-152.
Callahan, F. X.“Advertising and economic development”[J]. International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.5(3),1986:215-224.
Cantor, M. B.,&Rosentraub, M. S.“Are Gaming and Sport Effective Tourism StrategiesDuring Economic Contractions? Evidence from The Performance of Baseball and CasinosDuring America's Great Recession”[J]. Journal of Sport&Tourism, vol.17(1),2012:23-42.
Cardona, M. M.“Local-market Pricing Issues Strain Ad-market Recovery”[J]. Advertising Age,74(40),2003:8.
Carlin, W., Charlton, A.,&Mayer, C.“Multinational Ownership and Subsidiary Investment”[J/OL]. Retrieved1,13,2013, from Social Science Research Network,(21,3,2006): http://ssrn.com/abstract=958505
Chang, B.H., and S. M. Chan-Olmsted."Relative Constancy of Advertising Spending ACross-national Examination of Advertising Expenditures and Their Determinants”[J].Gazette, vol.64(7),2005:339-357.
Chauvin, W., K.,&Hirschey, M.“Advertising,R&D Expenditures and the Market Value of theFirm”[J]. Financial Management,22(Winter),1993:128-140.
Chenery, H. B.“The Structuralist Approach to Development Policy”[J]. American EconomicReview,vol.65(2),1975:310-316.
Chiplin, B.,&Sturgess, B. Econimics of Advertising [M].2nd ed. London: Holt, Rinehart andWinston.1981.
Chowdhury, A. R.“Advertising Expenditures and the Macro-Economy: Some New Evidence”[J]. International Journal of Advertising, vol.13(1),1994:1-14.
Christiano, L. J.,&Fitzgerald, T. J.“The Business Cycle: It’s Still a Puzzle”[J]. EconomicPerspectives, vol.22(4),1998, pp.56-83.
Clark, C. G. Condition of economic progress [M]. London: Macmillan Press,1940:23.
ColleyH.Russell. Defining Advertising Goals for Measuring Advertising Results [M]. New York:Association of National Advertisers.1961.
Connolly, R. A.,&Hirschey, M. RD,“Market Structure and Profits: A Value-Based Approach”[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics, vol.66,1984:683-686.
Corey, E. Industrial Marketing. Englewood, Cliffs [M], NJ: Prentice-Hall.1976.
Corgel, J.,&Woodworth, M.“Why Hotels? Economy Weakens but Hotels Remain RelativelyStrong--What Gives? And What Might Give?”[J]. Cornell Hospitality Quarterly, vol.53(4),2012:270-273.
Cross, G. An All-consuming Century: Why Commercialism Won in Modern America [M],Columbia: Columbia University Press,2000.
Danaher, P. J.,&Rust, R. T.“Determining the Optimal Level of Media Spending”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.34,1994:28-34.
Day, G. S.,&Fahey, a. L.“Valuing Market Strategies”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.52,1988:45-57.
De Waal, E., Schoenbach, K.,&Lauf, E.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement forPrint Newspapers and Other Information Channels?”[J]. Communications, vol.30,2005:55-72.
Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Jan-Benedicter, Steenkamp, E. M.,&Leeflang, P.“HowBusiness Cycles Contribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the United States andEurope”[J]. Loiiniat of Marketing,2007:1-15.
Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G., Steenkamp Jan-Benedict E.M., and Leeflang Peter S.H."TheRole of National Culture in Advertising’s Sensitivity to Business Cycles: An Investigationacross Continents”[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, vol.46(5),2008:623-636.
Demers, D. P.“Relative Constancy Hypothesis, Structural Pluralism, and National AdvertisingExpenditures”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(4),1995:31-48.
Dertouzos, J. N.,&Trautman, W. B.“Economic Effects of Media Concentration: Estimatesfrom a Model of the Newspaper Firm”[J]. The Journal of Industrial Economics, vol.39(1),1990:1-14.
Dhalla, N. K.“Advertising as an Antirecession Tool”[J]. Harvard Business Review,1980(1-2):158-165.
Didow, N. M.,&Franke, G. R.“Measurement Issues in Time-Series Research: Reliability andValidity Assessment in Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of Advertising”[J]. Journalof Marketing Research, vol.21,1984:12-19.
Dimmick, J.“The Theory of the Niche and Spending on Mass Media: The Case of the ‘VideoRevolution’”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997:33-43.
Dimmick, J. W., Patterson, S. J.,&Albarran, A. B.“Competition between the Cable andBroadcast Industries: A niche Analysis”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(1),1992:13-30.
Dimmick, J.,&Rothenbuhler, E.“The Theory of The Niche: Quantifying Competition AmongMedia Interests”[J]. Journal of Communication, vol.34,1984:109-119.
Dipasquale, C. B.,&Fine, J,“PM: Last Call for Magazines”[J]. Advertising Age, vol.73(5),1,2002:31.
Direct Marketing.“Advertising During A Recession”[J/OL]. Retrieved11,4,2011, fromAllBusiness.com,(1,9,1991): http://www.allbusiness.com/marketing-advertising/advertising/260415-1.html
Dobbs, R. F., Karakolev, T.,&Malige, F.“Learning to Love Recessions”[J]. The McKinseyQuarterly（Special Edition Issue）, vol.2,2002:6-9.
Doyle, G. Understanding Media Economics [M], London: Sage.2002.
Duyn, A. v. Online advertisers may gain from downturn [N/OL]. Retrieved216,2013,fr-om FT,(2007,923): http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3bd95d94-69f7-11dc-a571-0000779fd2ac.html#axzz2MdtfzbP2/.
Ekelund, R. B., Ford, J. S.,&Jackson, J. D.“Is Radio Advertising a Distinct Local Market? AnEmpirical Analysis”[J]. Journal Review of Industrial Organization, vol.14(3),1999:239-256.
Ester, D. W., Klaus, S.,&Edmund, L.“Online Newspapers: A Substitute or Complement forPrint Newspapers and Other Information Channels?”[J]. Communications, vol.1,2005:55-72.
EwenStuart. Captains of Consciousness: Advertising and the Social Roots of the ConsumerCulture [M], New York: McGraw-Hill,1976:154.
Farris, P. W.,&Buzzell, R. D.“Why Advertising and Promotional Costs Vary: SomeCross-Sectional Analyses”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.43(4),1979:112-122.
Ferguson, J. M.“Daily Newspaper Advertising Rates, Local Media Cross-ownership,Newspaper chains, and Media Competition”[J]. Journal of Law and Economics, vol.26(3),1983:635-654.
Fisher, A. G. B.“Production, primary, secondary and tertiary”[J]. Economic Record, vol.15,1939: p.24-38.
Frank, M. W.“Media Substitution in Advertising: A Spirited Case Study”[J]. InternationalJournal of Industrial Organization, vol.26,2008:308-326.
Frankenberger, K. D.,&Graham, R. C.“Should Firms Increase Advertising ExpendituresDuring Recessions?”[R]. Cambridge, M.A.: MSI report no.03-003.2003.
Gabszewicz, J. J., Laussel, D.,&Sonnac, N.“Competition in The Media and AdvertisingMarkets”[J]. The Manchester School, vol.1,2006:1-22.
Galbraith, John,&RichHolton. Marketing Efficiency in Puerto Rico [M]. Cambridge: HarvardUniversity Press,1955.
Garbett, T. F.“What Happens When Corporate Ad Budgets Are Cut?”[J]. Public RelationsJournal, vol.39(11),1983:25-26,31.
Gentzkow, M.“Valuing New Goods in a Model with Complementarity: Online Newspapers”[J].The American Economic Review, vol.97(3),2007:713-744.
George, L.,&Waldfogel,L.“Who Affects Whom in Daily Newspaper Markets?”[J]. Journal ofPolitical Economy, vol.111(4),2003:765-785.
Glascock, J.“Effect of Cable Television on Advertiser and Consumer Spending on Mass Media”[J]. Journalism Quarterly, vol.70(3),1993:509-517.
Goldman, A.“Growth of Large Food Stores in a Developing Economy”[J]. Journal of Retailing,vol.50（Summer）,1974:50-60.
Groves, M.“Advertising Recovery Deferred to2004”[J]. Ideas Magazine,1,2004:18-19.
Hausmann, R., Rodrik, D.,&Velasco, A.“Growth diagnostics”[J]//N. Serra,&J. E. Stiglitz,The Washington Consensus Reconsidered: Towards a New Global Governance, Oxford:Oxford University Press.2005:324-355.
Hess, G. D.,&Shin, K.“International and Intranational Business Cycles”[J]. Oxford Review ofEconomic Policy, vol.13(3),1997:93-109.
Hofstede, G.“Management Scientists Are Human”[J]. Management Science,40,1994:4-13.
Hofstede, G. Culture’s Consequences: Comparing Values, Behaviors, Institutions, andOrganizations across Nations [M], Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications,2001.
Holton, R.“Food Retailing and Economic Growth”[J]. Journal of Farm Economics, vol.38(2),1956:356-360.
Holton, R.“Marketing Structure and Economic Development”[J]. Quarterly Journal ofEconomics, vol.67(3),1953:344-361.
Hooley, G. J.,&Lynch, J. E.“How UK Advertisers Set Budgets”[J]. International Journal ofAdvertising, vol.4(3),1985:223-231.
Jacobson, R.,&Aaker, D.“MyopicManagement Behavior With Efficient, But Imperfect,Financial Markets”[J]. Journal of Accounting and Economics, vol.16(4),1993:383-405.
Jensen, M. C.,&Meckling, W. H.“Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behavior, Agency Costs,and Ownership Structure”[J]. Journal of Financial Economics, vol.3(4),1976:305-360.
Jones, J. P.“Is total advertising going up or down?”[J]. International Journal of Advertising,vol.4(1),1985:47-64.
Jung, C.,&Seldon, B. J.“The Degree of Competition in the Advertising Industry”[J]. Reviewof Industrial Organization, vol.10(1),1995:41-52.
King, K., Reid, L. N.,&Macias, W.“Selecting Media for National Advertising Revisited:Criteria of Importance to Large-company Advertising Managers”[J]. Journal of CurrentIssues and Research in Advertising, vol.26,2004:59-68.
Kitchin, J.“Cycles and Trends in Economic Factors”[J]. Review of Economics and Statistics,1923:10-16.
Kranenburg, H. L.“Economic Effects of Consolidations of Publishers and Newspapers in TheNetherlands”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.14(2),2001:61-76.
Kuznets, S.“Quantitative Aspects of The Economic Growth of Nations: Long Term Trends inCapital Formation Proportions”[J]. Economic Development and Cultural Change, vol.9,1961:1-124.
Kuznets, S. Secular Movements in Production and Prices [M]. Boston: Houghton Mifflin,1930.
Lacy, S.“Commitment of Financial Resources as A Measure of Quality”[J]//R. G. Picard (Ed.),Measuring Media Content, Quality, and Diversity: Approaches and Issues in ContentResearch, Turku, Finland: Turku School of Economics and Business Administration,2000,p22-50.
Lacy, S.,&Martin, H. J.“Competition, Circulation and Advertising”[J]. Newspaper ResearchJournal, vol.25(1),2004:18-39.
Lacy, S.,&Noh, G. Y.“Theory, Economics, Measurement, and the Principle of RelativeConstancy”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.10(3),1997:3-16.
Lacy, S.,&Simon, T. F. The Economics and Regulation of United States Newspapers [M].Norwood,NJ: Ablex,1993.
Lamey, Lien, Deleersnyder, B., Dekimpe, M. G.,&Steenkamp, J.-B. E.“How Business CyclesContribute to Private-Label Success: Evidence from the U.S. and Europe”[J]. Journal ofMarketing,71,2007:1-15.
Lee, B.,&Tremblay, V. J.“Advertising and The US Market Demand for Beer”. AppliedEconomics, vol.24,1992:69-76.
Lee, C. Y.“Advertising, Its Determinants, and Market Structure”[J]. Review of IndustrialOrganization, vol.21(1),2002:89-101.
Lemmens, Aurelie, Croux, C.,&Dekimpe, M. G.“Consumer Confidence in Europe: United inDiversity”[J]. International Journal of Research in Marketing, vol.24(2),2007:113-127.
Linnett, R.“Magazines Pay the Price of TV Recovery”. Advertising Age, vol.73(35),2002,1-2.
Lisa, O'Malleya, Story Vicky, and O'Sullivan Vicky.“Marketing in A Recession: Retrench orInvest?”[J]. Journal of Strategic Marketing, vol.19(3),2011:285-310.
Low, G. S.,&Mohr, J. J.“Setting Advertising and Promotion Budgets in Multi-BrandCompanies”[J]. Journal of Advertising Research, vol.39,1999:67-78.
Marketing Week.“INTERACTIVE: The Internet Complements, Not Replaces, Classic Media”[J]. Marketing Week,2007:27.
Maxwell, A.,&Wanta, W.“Advertising Agencies Reduce Reliance on Newspaper Ads”[J].Newspaper Research Journal, vol.22(2),2001:51-65.
McChesney, R. W. Telecommunications, Mass media, and Democracy: The Battle for TheControl of U.S. Broadcasting,1928-1935[M].2ed. Oxcford: Oxford University Press,1995:10-11
McCombs, M. E.,&Eyal, C. H.“Spending on Mass Media”[J]. Journal of Communication,vol.30(1),1980:153-158.
McCombs, M.“Mass Media in the Marketplace”[J]. Journalism Monographs, No.24,1972:67.
McCullough, B. D.,&Waldon, T.“The Substitutability of Network and National SpotTelevision Advertising: QJBE QJFA QJBE”[J]. Quarterly Journal of Business andEconomics, vol.2,1998:3-15.
Meehan, E. R. Why TV Is Not Our Fault: Television Programming, Viewers, And Who's Reallyin Control [M]. Lanham: Rowman&Littlefield,2005.
Mela, C. F., Jedidi, K.,&Bowman, D.“The Long-Term Impact of Promotions on ConsumerStockpiling Behavior”[J]. Journal of Marketing Research, vol.35,1998:250-262.
Mitchelstein, E.,&Boczkowski, P.“Online News Consumption Research: An Assessment ofPast Work and An Agenda for The Future”[J]. New Media&Society, vol.12(7),2010:1085-1102.
Nelson, J.“Advertising Bans, Monopoly, and Alcohol Demand: Testing for Substitution Effectsusing State Panel Data”[J]. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.22(1),2003:1-25.
Nelson, J.“Beer Advertising and Marketing Update: Structure, Conduct, and Social Costs”[J].Review of Industrial Organization, vol.26(3),2005:269-306.
Nelson, J.,&Young, D.“Do Advertising Bans Work? An International Comparison”[J].International Journal of Advertising, vol.20(3),2001:273-296.
Nicholson, W. Microeconomic Theory: Basic Principles and Extensions [M].6th ed. New York:Dryden,1995.
Nowak, G. J., Cameron, G. T.,&Krugman, D. M.“How Local Advertisers Choose and UseAdvertising Media”[J]. Journal of Advertising Research, vol.33(6),1993:39-49.
Ostheimer, R. H.“Magazine Advertising During Recessions”[J]. Journal of AdvertisingResearch, vol.20(6),1980:11-16.
Pasinetti, L. Structural Change and Economic Growth: A Theoretical Essay on The Dynamics ofThe Wealth of Nations [M]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press,1981.
Peles, Y.“Amortization of Advertising Expenditures in the Financial Statements”[J]. Journal ofAccounting Research, Vol.8(Spring),1970:128-137.
Peneder, M.“Intangible Investment and Human Resources”[J]. Journal of EvolutionaryEconomics, vol.12(1-2),2002a:107-134.
Peneder. M.“Entry,Age and Sectoral Specialisation of Viennese Firms”[J]. Austrian EconomicQuarterly, vol.3,2002b:109-120.
Peneder, M.“Industrial Structure and Aggregate Growth”[J]. Structural Change and EconomicDynamics,14,2003:427-448.
Picard, R. G. Media Economics：Concepts and Issues [M]. Newbury Park, CA: Sage,1989.
Picard, R.G.“Effects of Recessions on Advertising Expenditure:An Exploratory Study ofEconomic Downturns in Nine Developed Nations”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics,vol.14(1),2001a:1-14
Picard, R. G.“Understanding and Adjusting to Economic Changes”[J]. Ideas Magazine,2001b:4-9.
Picard, R. G.“U.S. newspaper ad revenue shows consistent growth”[J]. Newspaper ResearchJournal, vol.23(4),2002:21-33.
Picard, R. G."Economic Growth and Advertising Expenditures in Different Media in DifferentCountries”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.21,2008, p.28-52.
Picard, R.,&Rimmer, T.“Weathering a Recession: Effects of Size and Diversification onNewspaper Companies”[J]. The Journal of Media Economics, vol.5(2),1999:43-52.
Quarles, R. C.,&Jeffres, L. W.“Advertising and National Consumption: A Path AnalyticRe-Examination of the Galbraithian Argument”[J]. Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2):4-33.
Reid, L. N.,&King, K. W.“A Demand-side View of Media Substitutability inNationaladvertising: A study of Advertiser Opinions About Traditional Media Options”[J].Journalism&Mass Communication Quarterly, vol.77(2),2000:292-307.
Reid, L. N., King, K. W., Martin, H. J.,&Soh, H.“Local Advertising Decision MakersPerceptions of Media Effectiveness and Substitutability”[J]. Journal of Media Economics,vol.18(1),2005:35-53.
Roark, V.,&Stone, G. C.“Do Managers Forecast the Newspaper Industry’s Economy?”[J].The Journal of Media Economics, vol.7(2),1994:29-38.
Rossana, R. J. Macroeconomics [M]. London: Routledge,2011.
Rostow, W. W. The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto [M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1960.
Saksena, S.,&Hollifield, C. A.“U.S. Newspapers and the Development of Online Editions”[J].International Journal on Media Management, vol.4(2),2002:75-84.
San Augustine, A. J.,&Foley, W. E.“How Large Advertisers Set Their Budgets”[J]. Journal ofAdvertising Research, vol.15,1975:11-16.
Saunders, John, Philip, S., Wensley, R.,&Forrester, R.“In Search of the Lemmus Lemmus: AnInvestigation into Convergent Competition. British Journal of Management”[J]. vol.11(Special Issue),2000:81-95.
Savitt, R.“The State of the Art in Marketing and Economic Development”[J]. Research inMarketing, vol.4(4),1988:11-37.
Schmalensee, R. The Economics of Advertising [M]. Amsterdam: North-Holland PublishingCompany,1972:214.
Schneider, S. C.,&Jean-Louis, B. Managing Across Cultures [M].2nd ed. London: FT PrenticeHall,2002.
Seelig, M.“Web Economics: The Added Value of the Web for Daily Newspapers andCommercial Television Stations”[J]. Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, vol.3(1),2011:81-96.
Seldon, B. J.,&Jung, C.“Derived Demand for Advertising Messages and SubstitutabilityAmong the Media”[J]. The Quarterly Review of Economica and Finance, vol.33(1),1993:71-86.
Shaver, M. A.“Application of Pricing Theory in Studies of Pricing Behavior and Rate Strategyin The Newspaper Industry”[J]. Journal of Media Economics, vol.8(2),1995:49-59.
Shaver, M. A.,&Lacy, S.“The Impact of Intermedia and Newspaper Competition onAdvertising Linage in Daily Newspapers”[J]. Journalism and Mass CommunicationQuarterly, vol.76(4),1999:729-744.
Shaver, M. A., and D Shaver.“Changes in the Levels of Advertising Expenditures DuringRecessionary Periods: A Study of Advertising Performance in Eight Countries”[C]. Paperpresented at the Asian-American Academy of Advertising, Hong Kong,2005.
Silk, A. J., Klein, L. R.,&Berndt, E. R.“Intermedia Substitutability and Market Demand byNational Advertisers”[J]. Review of Industrial Organization, vol.20(4),2002:323-348.
Simon, J. Issues in The Economics of Advertising [M]. Urbana: University of Illinois Press,1970.
Smith, K.“Advertisers’ Media Selection in Small Newspaper Markets”[J]. NewspaperResearch Journal, Vol.19,1998,30-44.
Smith, K.“Intermedia Competition for Advertising in Small Daily Markets”[J]. Journal ofMedia Economics, vol.8(4),1995:29-45.
Srinivasan, R., Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: DoesProactive Marketing during a Recession Pay off?”[J]. International Journal of Research inMarketing, vol.22(2),2005:109-125.
Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A.,&Fahey, L.“Market-Based Assets and Shareholder Value: AFramework for Analysis”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.62,1998:2-18.
Srivastava, Rangaswamy, A.,&Lilien, G. L.“Turning Adversity into Advantage: DoesProactive Marketing During a Recession Pay Off?”[J]. International Journal of Researchin Marketing, vol.22,2005:109-125.
Stanton, W. Fundamentals of Marketing [M]. New York: McGraw-Hill,1981.
Swerdlow, R. A.,&Blessios, V. I.“A Model for Predicting Advertising Expenditures: AnInter-industry Comparison”[J]. International Journal of Advertising, vol.12(2),1993:143-153.
Tan, B. C., Wei, K. K., Watsonz, R. T.,&Clapper, D. L.“Computer-Mediated Communicationand Majority Influence: Assessing the Impact in an Individualistic and a CollectivisticCulture”[J]. Management Science, vol.44(9),1998:1263-1278.
Tellis, J., G.,&Tellis, K.“A Survey of Research on Advertising in a Recession”[J]. MarketingScience Institute Special Report,2009:109-205.
Turner, P.“Aggregate Advertising, Sales Volume and Relative Prices in the Long Run”[J].Applied Economics Letters, vol.7(8),2000:505-508.
WACR (World Advertising Research Center). World Advertising Trends2005[R]. Oxfordshire:World Advertising Research Center,2005.
Waldfogel, J.“Consumer Substitution Among Media”[R/OL]. Media Bureau Staff ResearchPapers,2002-2003, Retrieved1,25,2013, from Federal Communications Commission,(9,2002): http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-226838A8.pdf
White, J. B.,&Miles, M. P.“The Financial Implications of Advertising as an Investment”[J].Journal of Advertising Research, vol.36,1996:43-52.
Wikipedia.“Juglar cycle”[G/OL]. Retrieved9,21,2012, from Wilipedia,(8,18,2012):http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juglar_cycle
Wise, A. S.,&Duwadi, K.“Competition Between Cable Television And Direct BroadcastSatellite: The Importance Of Switching Costs And Regional Sports Networks”[J]. Journalof Competition Law and Economics, vol.1(4),2005:679-705.
Yneu Yang, C.“Variations in the Cyclical Behavior of Advertising”[J]. Journal of Marketing,vol.28(2),1964:25-80.
Zinkhan, G. M.,&Cheng, C.“Marketing Communication Intensity Across Industries”[J].Decision Sciences, vol.23(3),1992:758-769.
Zinkhan, G. M.,&Hirschheim, R.“Truth in Marketing Theory and Research: An AlternativePerspective”[J]. Journal of Marketing, vol.56(2),1992, pp.80-88.