配套环境对新兴技术演化的影响研究
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摘要
新兴技术从产生到实现“创造性毁灭”的演化过程,不仅仅是技术沿着特定技术轨道的演进,更重要的是新兴技术与配套环境共生演化的过程。正是这些要素的作用,以新兴技术为核心的新技术-经济系统才能成功改变或替代原有技术-经济系统,最终创造一个新行业或改变已有行业。本文综合技术创新理论、战略管理理论、期权理论和网络组织理论等的思想和方法,通过对典型新兴技术演化过程的研究,构建了多层次的新兴技术演化配套环境体系,深入研究了微观、中观、宏观不同层次配套环境要素对新兴技术演化的作用机理,并结合样本数据和案例进行了实证分析。
第一,本文首先对新兴技术的内涵和特点、新兴技术演化理论、配套环境的研究现状进行了介绍和评述,在此基础上指出配套环境是新兴技术演化过程中不可忽略的关键要素之一。同时在对前人研究进行总结的基础上,把新兴技术演化分为技术起源到技术发展、技术商业化、持续改进四个过程,本文重点关注前三个演化阶段的配套环境作用。
第二,本文从典型新兴技术的演化过程出发,构建了多层次的配套环境体系:一是微观环境要素,它是由基础科研资源、补充性技术、互补性资产、支撑性网络设施、市场潜在需求构成的核心要素。二是中观环境层次,包括作用于以上核心要素的外部条件,如知识网络、产业联盟;第三层次是宏观层面的环境要素,包括政府政策、经济发展水平、法律环境、创新文化等。
第三,本文从理论角度讨论了微观环境要素对新兴技术演化的作用,然后用实物期权工具讨论了其对新兴技术演化的影响机理。新兴技术演化的主要驱动因素是拥有不同类型技术要素的企业基于对新技术的预期所进行的战略投资;微观配套环境的变化将对企业投资新兴技术的期权参数产生影响。良好的微观配套环境将促使企业在单个产品的预期利润较小时,就会做出投资研发和商业化的决策,并获得更大的投资期权价值,这将促进新兴技术的演化。这一作用过程构成了微观配套环境要素对新兴技术演化的影响机理。
第四,关于中观环境对新兴技术演化的作用机理,本文用实证方法提出了新兴技术知识网络与产业联盟的不同构成,及其内部运营的四个关键组成要素:信息交流机制、资源共享机制、共同认知机制与公平合作机制。同时发现对新兴技术演化起促进作用的不是有多少家企业加入知识网络与产业联盟,而是网络与联盟内部是否能对新技术有着共同认知,并以共享资源为目标,能否采取有效措施促进新兴技术迅速产业化。网络与联盟内部需要有良好的运营机制才能显著提高新兴技术演化绩效。
第五,关于宏观环境对新兴技术的影响,本文通过TD-SCDMA的案例研究发现,政府政策、经济发展水平、法律环境、创新文化等宏观环境要素在新兴技术演化过程中的作用明显:它们通过中观要素和微观要素影响着新兴技术演化进程与方向;但其中最重要的是政府政策的影响,这是由新兴技术的本质特点所决定的。其作用体现在新兴技术演化的不同阶段:起源阶段主要是支持基础研发;发展阶段应注重支持补充性技术发展;在初步应用阶段阶段,则应构建合适市场环境或降低新技术市场化成本;一旦产品成熟,应注意控制垄断让更多消费者享受经济福利。要发展新兴技术,必须重视宏观环境带来的影响,既重视政策的引导与支持,又要重视知识产权法律的保障、不断培育自主创新文化。
From its generation to "creative destruction", the evolution of emerging technology not only evolves along its own specific path, but also, more importantly, co-exists and develops with the supporting environment. Due to the impacts of these elements, emerging technology, the core of the new technology-economic system, can successfully change or replace the existing one, and eventually create a new industry or change the existing one. This dissertation synthesizes the Technical Innovation Theory, Strategic Management Theory, Options Theory and the Theory of Network Organizations as the theoritcial framework for the analysis of the typical process of emerging technology evolution. It builds a multi-level supporting environmental system for emerging technology evolution. The dissertation then conducts the positive study thoroughly the mechanism of micro-, meso- and macro- level of environmental factors on emerging technology evolution with empirical cases and sample data.
The first part of the dissertation reviews the meanings and characteristics of emerging technology, the research status of the supporting environment and the Emerging Technology Evolution Theory. Then it points out that the supporting environment is one of the key elements of emerging technology evolution which can not be ignored. At the same time, based on the literature review, the disseratation classifies the evolution of emerging technologies into four stages: origination, development, commercialization, and continuous improvement. This dissertation focuses on the role of supporting environment for the first three stages of the evolution.
Based on the evolution process of typical emerging technology, the dissertation devots its second part to build a multi-level support environment system: mircro-, meso- and macro-envrionment. The micro-environmental factors include such core elements as basic research resources, complementary technology, complementary assets, infrastructure, and potential market demand. The meso-environmental factors include external conditions affecting the core elements, such as knowledge networks and industry alliances. The macro-environmental factors subsume government policies, economic development levels, legal environment, and innovation culture.
The third part of the disseratation investigates, theoreticaly, the functions of micro-environmental factors on the evolution of emerging technologies. Then it probes the impact mechanisms using tools of real options. The dominant driving forces of the evolution of emerging technologies are strategic investment by complementary technology providers based on their expectations of the new technology; the influence of the option parameters caused by changes of micro-environment. Favorable micro-environment encourages enterprises to make decision to invest R&D and commercialization even if expected profits of one product is small, intending to get greater investment option value in the future, which consequently will facilitate the evolution of emerging technologies. This process constitutes the impact mechanism that micro-environmental factors affect the evolution of emerging technologies.
Regarding to the meso-environment effect-mechanism on emerging technology evolution, the dissertation carries out a positive study in the fourth part in attempt to explore the different structures of knowledge networks and industry alliances and four key elements of internal operation: information exchange mechanisms, resource sharing mechanism, common cognition mechanisms and fair cooperation mechanisms. Meanwhile the dissertation finds that the functional factors on promting emerging technology evolution is not the number of companies in the knowledge networks and industrial alliances, but whether or not the networks and alliances have same cognition of the emerging technology; whether or not they set resources-sharing as their goal; and whether or not effective measures are taken to promote emerging technology to industrialize rapidly. It needs a well-calibred operating system to significantly improve the performance of emerging technology evolution within the alliances and networks
In the final part, the dissertation finds that the macro-environmental factors(such as government policy, economic development, legal environment and innovation culture)have apparent impact in different stages of emerging technologies evolution based on the case study of TD-SCDMA technology. The macro-environmental factors change the directions and progresses of evolution through micro- and meso-environment factors among which government policy is pivotal due to the characteristics of emerging technologies. Government policies shape the evolution in different stage therein. In the origination stage, government policies support basic scientific research. In development stage, policies focus on supporting the development of complementary technologies. During the initial application stage, policies help to build a suitable market environment or reduce the cost of marketization. In maturing stage, policies deal with the control of monopoly in order for more consumers to enjoy the economic benefits of emerging technologies. Evolution of emerging technologies has its own laws. To develop the emerging technologies, the dissertation shows that it is crucial to recognize the effects of macro-environmental factors; pay close attention to policy guidiance and support; protect intellectual property rights; and foster the culture of independent innovation.
第一,本文首先对新兴技术的内涵和特点、新兴技术演化理论、配套环境的研究现状进行了介绍和评述,在此基础上指出配套环境是新兴技术演化过程中不可忽略的关键要素之一。同时在对前人研究进行总结的基础上,把新兴技术演化分为技术起源到技术发展、技术商业化、持续改进四个过程,本文重点关注前三个演化阶段的配套环境作用。
第二,本文从典型新兴技术的演化过程出发,构建了多层次的配套环境体系:一是微观环境要素,它是由基础科研资源、补充性技术、互补性资产、支撑性网络设施、市场潜在需求构成的核心要素。二是中观环境层次,包括作用于以上核心要素的外部条件,如知识网络、产业联盟;第三层次是宏观层面的环境要素,包括政府政策、经济发展水平、法律环境、创新文化等。
第三,本文从理论角度讨论了微观环境要素对新兴技术演化的作用,然后用实物期权工具讨论了其对新兴技术演化的影响机理。新兴技术演化的主要驱动因素是拥有不同类型技术要素的企业基于对新技术的预期所进行的战略投资;微观配套环境的变化将对企业投资新兴技术的期权参数产生影响。良好的微观配套环境将促使企业在单个产品的预期利润较小时,就会做出投资研发和商业化的决策,并获得更大的投资期权价值,这将促进新兴技术的演化。这一作用过程构成了微观配套环境要素对新兴技术演化的影响机理。
第四,关于中观环境对新兴技术演化的作用机理,本文用实证方法提出了新兴技术知识网络与产业联盟的不同构成,及其内部运营的四个关键组成要素:信息交流机制、资源共享机制、共同认知机制与公平合作机制。同时发现对新兴技术演化起促进作用的不是有多少家企业加入知识网络与产业联盟,而是网络与联盟内部是否能对新技术有着共同认知,并以共享资源为目标,能否采取有效措施促进新兴技术迅速产业化。网络与联盟内部需要有良好的运营机制才能显著提高新兴技术演化绩效。
第五,关于宏观环境对新兴技术的影响,本文通过TD-SCDMA的案例研究发现,政府政策、经济发展水平、法律环境、创新文化等宏观环境要素在新兴技术演化过程中的作用明显:它们通过中观要素和微观要素影响着新兴技术演化进程与方向;但其中最重要的是政府政策的影响,这是由新兴技术的本质特点所决定的。其作用体现在新兴技术演化的不同阶段:起源阶段主要是支持基础研发;发展阶段应注重支持补充性技术发展;在初步应用阶段阶段,则应构建合适市场环境或降低新技术市场化成本;一旦产品成熟,应注意控制垄断让更多消费者享受经济福利。要发展新兴技术,必须重视宏观环境带来的影响,既重视政策的引导与支持,又要重视知识产权法律的保障、不断培育自主创新文化。
From its generation to "creative destruction", the evolution of emerging technology not only evolves along its own specific path, but also, more importantly, co-exists and develops with the supporting environment. Due to the impacts of these elements, emerging technology, the core of the new technology-economic system, can successfully change or replace the existing one, and eventually create a new industry or change the existing one. This dissertation synthesizes the Technical Innovation Theory, Strategic Management Theory, Options Theory and the Theory of Network Organizations as the theoritcial framework for the analysis of the typical process of emerging technology evolution. It builds a multi-level supporting environmental system for emerging technology evolution. The dissertation then conducts the positive study thoroughly the mechanism of micro-, meso- and macro- level of environmental factors on emerging technology evolution with empirical cases and sample data.
The first part of the dissertation reviews the meanings and characteristics of emerging technology, the research status of the supporting environment and the Emerging Technology Evolution Theory. Then it points out that the supporting environment is one of the key elements of emerging technology evolution which can not be ignored. At the same time, based on the literature review, the disseratation classifies the evolution of emerging technologies into four stages: origination, development, commercialization, and continuous improvement. This dissertation focuses on the role of supporting environment for the first three stages of the evolution.
Based on the evolution process of typical emerging technology, the dissertation devots its second part to build a multi-level support environment system: mircro-, meso- and macro-envrionment. The micro-environmental factors include such core elements as basic research resources, complementary technology, complementary assets, infrastructure, and potential market demand. The meso-environmental factors include external conditions affecting the core elements, such as knowledge networks and industry alliances. The macro-environmental factors subsume government policies, economic development levels, legal environment, and innovation culture.
The third part of the disseratation investigates, theoreticaly, the functions of micro-environmental factors on the evolution of emerging technologies. Then it probes the impact mechanisms using tools of real options. The dominant driving forces of the evolution of emerging technologies are strategic investment by complementary technology providers based on their expectations of the new technology; the influence of the option parameters caused by changes of micro-environment. Favorable micro-environment encourages enterprises to make decision to invest R&D and commercialization even if expected profits of one product is small, intending to get greater investment option value in the future, which consequently will facilitate the evolution of emerging technologies. This process constitutes the impact mechanism that micro-environmental factors affect the evolution of emerging technologies.
Regarding to the meso-environment effect-mechanism on emerging technology evolution, the dissertation carries out a positive study in the fourth part in attempt to explore the different structures of knowledge networks and industry alliances and four key elements of internal operation: information exchange mechanisms, resource sharing mechanism, common cognition mechanisms and fair cooperation mechanisms. Meanwhile the dissertation finds that the functional factors on promting emerging technology evolution is not the number of companies in the knowledge networks and industrial alliances, but whether or not the networks and alliances have same cognition of the emerging technology; whether or not they set resources-sharing as their goal; and whether or not effective measures are taken to promote emerging technology to industrialize rapidly. It needs a well-calibred operating system to significantly improve the performance of emerging technology evolution within the alliances and networks
In the final part, the dissertation finds that the macro-environmental factors(such as government policy, economic development, legal environment and innovation culture)have apparent impact in different stages of emerging technologies evolution based on the case study of TD-SCDMA technology. The macro-environmental factors change the directions and progresses of evolution through micro- and meso-environment factors among which government policy is pivotal due to the characteristics of emerging technologies. Government policies shape the evolution in different stage therein. In the origination stage, government policies support basic scientific research. In development stage, policies focus on supporting the development of complementary technologies. During the initial application stage, policies help to build a suitable market environment or reduce the cost of marketization. In maturing stage, policies deal with the control of monopoly in order for more consumers to enjoy the economic benefits of emerging technologies. Evolution of emerging technologies has its own laws. To develop the emerging technologies, the dissertation shows that it is crucial to recognize the effects of macro-environmental factors; pay close attention to policy guidiance and support; protect intellectual property rights; and foster the culture of independent innovation.
引文
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