城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度研究
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摘要
随着我国居民收入的提高、闲暇时间的增多,农业生产方式的变革和农村基础设施的完善,城镇居民对休闲农业的消费需求逐渐增加,我国的休闲农业进入了快速发展的阶段,在空间上呈现出集聚发展的趋势。而从以往的研究成果来看,目前我国对休闲农业的研究还大多是对发展中存在问题的总结和探讨,滞后于实践发展,缺乏前瞻性和指导性。同时,目前对产业集聚的研究主要集中在工业领域,对休闲农业产业集聚的研究基本处于空白状态。虽然休闲农业的产业集聚对企业、消费者、农民、政府和学者会起到诸如降低成本、提高整体效用、增加就业机会、推动经济发展和方便深入研究等良好的效应,但是根据胡佛的产业集聚最佳规模论和我国学者关于制造业和流通行业等领域的产业集聚效应研究成果,休闲农业的过度集聚也可能会使集聚区的交通拥挤,环境压力加大,社会关系紧张,对游客的吸引力降低,产生负面效果。
基于这些背景,本文研究的主要问题是：我国休闲农业产业集聚的现状和特征如何?在考虑空间效应的条件下,休闲农业产业集聚的内在机制和影响因素是什么?在供需平衡的分析视角下,对于某一个城市而言,其郊区的休闲农业项目集聚发展到什么程度比较合适?针对这三个问题,本文的具体研究目标和内容是：(1)休闲农业产业集聚的测度和分析,为后续的研究提供基础。(2)休闲农业产业集聚的形成机制与影响因素的理论研究及其实证检验。(3)休闲农业产业集聚的空间相关性判断与分析。(4)城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的理论探讨、模型构建和实际运用。
论文共分为八个部分。第一章：导言。介绍本文研究的背景,提出所要研究的问题,对本研究的研究意义、研究目标、研究方法、数据来源和技术路线进行阐述,归纳研究中可能的创新和存在的不足之处。第二章：理论基础与文献综述。对休闲农业和产业集聚的相关理论和文献进行全面梳理,并做出了分析和评述,提出了本文研究的切入点,最后对相关概念进行了说明和界定。第三章：休闲农业产业现状及集聚测度。对我国休闲农业的发展现状进行了分析,然后比较了行业集中度、赫芬达尔指数、空间基尼系数、空间E-G指数、区位熵和θi指数这六种产业集聚的测度方法。考虑到数据的可获得性和统一口径,本文选择区位熵和θi指数两种方法分别对全国省市层面和江苏省县域层面的休闲农业产业集聚程度进行了测算和分析,证明了休闲农业产业集聚现象的真实存在。第四章：理论研究。在新经济地理学理论的基础上,根据休闲农业的实际特点,构建了休闲农业产业集聚的理论分析框架,研究休闲农业集聚形成的内在机制、影响因素和集聚效应,并在目前休闲农业项目主要集聚在城市郊区发展这一背景下,对其合理集聚度做出了理论探讨。第五章：休闲农业产业集聚空间相关性的判断与分析。根据空间计量经济学的理论和分析方法,通过Moran's I才旨数、Moran散点图和局部空间联系指标LISA,从全局和局域两个角度对我国和江苏省的休闲农业产业集聚的空间相关性进行了检验和分析,得出了休闲农业产业集聚存在显著的空间正相关性的结论,为后文在研究中考虑空间因素奠定了基础。第六章：休闲农业产业集聚影响因素的空间计量分析。在前面章节的研究基础上,充分考虑了休闲农业产业集聚的空间效应,采用空间计量模型中的空间滞后面板数据模型和空间杜宾模型对休闲农业产业集聚的影响因素进行了实证研究和相应分析。第七章：城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的实证研究。在以上章节的研究基础上构建了城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的理论模型,并在不同的假设条件下进行了实证检验和分析。本章也以南京市为案例进行了研究,分析了南京市休闲农业发展的现状和郊区休闲农业项目的空间结构,最后计算了南京市城市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度。第八章：全文总结和政策建议。针对各章节的研究内容进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议和进一步的研究方向。
研究主要得出了以下结论：
(1)基于θi指数和区位熵这两种产业集聚测度方法的分析结果显示,目前我国休闲农业产业集聚的现象很明显,不论是在全国层面还是江苏省县域层面,休闲农业的整体集聚程度都很高。但江苏省的休闲农业整体集聚程度在2009~2011年间呈现出一个下降的趋势,休闲农业趋于均匀分布。从相对角度来看,四川省、北京市和上海市是全国层面上休闲农业相对集聚程度最高的地区,而南京市、扬州市、苏州市和镇江市周边一直都是江苏省休闲农业相对集聚程度最高的地区,苏北大部分地区的休闲农业相对集聚程度目前虽然最低,但发展迅速,集聚程度不断提高。
(2)我国休闲农业的产业集聚是由市场需求和休闲农业相对回报率双重因素所驱动,在休闲农业的多功能性特点和循环累积的作用下最终形成的,市场规模、交通条件、旅游基础、农业资源、政府政策和空间溢出效应是影响休闲农业产业集聚的主要因素。虽然休闲农业的产业集聚对企业、消费者、农民、政府和学者都会起到良好的效应,但是过度集聚也可能会使集聚区的交通拥挤,环境压力加大,社会关系紧张,对游客的吸引力降低,产生负面效果。城市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度有“总量适合度”和“内部协调度”这两层含义。“总量适合度”是指城市郊区休闲农业的集聚应该与城市和经济发展的需求相协调,“内部协调度”是指休闲农业集聚区的各种项目应该找到自己最优单体规模,优化投入,内部协调发展。
(3)空间相关性的检验和分析结果表明：我国的休闲农业产业集聚存在着显著的空间正相关关系,随着距离的增加,这种空间关联性逐渐减弱,休闲农业产业集聚在江苏省县市之间的影响范围在180km以内。休闲农业产业集聚的局域空间差异性也很明显,北京市、天津市、上海市、江苏省、浙江省、湖北省和云南省是我国休闲农业产业集聚的“热点区域”,不仅自身发展水平较高,跟周边省份也有良好的互动,整体呈现出比较高的集聚程度。南京市郊和溧水县是江苏省休闲农业发展的领跑者,对周边地区具有很强的正向空间溢出效应。
(4)在充分考虑空间效应的前提下,空间计量模型的实证分析结果显示：市场规模、交通条件和旅游基础因素对休闲农业产业集聚都有着显著的正向作用。农业资源中的人力资源因素对休闲农业的产业集聚有着显著正向影响,而农林牧渔总产值与休闲农业集聚度负相关,这也证明了新经济地理学中产业集聚在某个地区的形成并不是由于该地区的要素禀赋优势所致这一理论。同时,基于空间杜宾模型的进一步分析表明：本地区自变量市场规模、交通条件和旅游基础等因素的变化除了会对本地区的休闲农业产业集聚产生作用外,对邻近地区的休闲农业产业集聚也有着不同方向和程度的影响。但除了城镇居民人均可支配收入这个变量外,其他自变量的间接效应大都不显著,这也说明目前休闲农业发展的“本地化”：即主要客源来自于当地。
(5)在相应的假设条件下,引力模型的估计结果表明,城镇居民人口、城镇居民人均可支配收入和土地面积对休闲农业游客数量都有显著的正向作用,但是距离因素在本文的研究中也显示出正向作用。这是因为休闲农业项目数量在城市郊区的分布是先逐步增加,在距离市中心30km范围处形成一个密集带,此后才开始逐步下降。考虑空间效应的时空引力模型分析结果显示,虽然邻近地区的城镇居民人口和城镇居民人均可支配收入对本地区的休闲农业游客数量存在着空间溢出效应,但整体作用并不显著。对南京市休闲农业的分析和模型估计结果显示,南京市郊区的休闲农业项目还有进一步集聚发展的空间。在研究与其他省市接壤的某个城市的郊区休闲农业时,也必须考虑来自外省市的影响。例如,苏州市郊区的休闲农业应该受到苏州市和上海市这两个“中心城市”的共同作用,游客中既有苏州市本地居民,也有上海市的居民,存在着叠加效应。苏州市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度必须同时考虑苏州市和上海市。
通过对全文的总结,本文提出了针对休闲农业产业集聚发展的五条政策建议,主要包括：第一,深化对休闲农业产业集聚的研究,科学引导其发展；第二,完善管理机制和支撑体系,做好数据统计工作；第三,与邻近地区协作互补,形成区域联动协调发展；第四,加大政策、资金扶持力度,优化休闲农业集聚发展的环境；第五,以农为本,协调处理当地农民与工商资本的关系。
With the increase of income and spare time of residents, as well as the transformation of agricultural model and improve of rural infrastructure, the demand of leisure agriculture of urban residents began to rise. Now, leisure agriculture in our country has entered a stage of rapid development, showing the trend of agglomeration in space. In the previous research, the study of leisure agriculture in our country is mostly about the summary of the problems, lag behind the practice development and lack the forward-looking guidance. At the same time, the present research on agglomeration is mainly in the industrial field, as the research on leisure agriculture agglomeration is basically in a blank state. Although leisure agriculture agglomeration has many good effects, such as reduce costs, improve utility, increase employment opportunities, beneficial to the further research, and promote economic development. But according to Hoover's optimal scale of industrial agglomeration theory, and research conclusions about the agglomeration effect in the field of manufacturing industry and circulation industry, leisure agriculture agglomeration may also make negative effect.
Based on these backgrounds, this thesis is mainly concerned with:what is the current situation and characteristics of leisure agriculture agglomeration in china? In considering the spatial effect, what are the inherent mechanism and influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration? In the view of the balance of supply and demand, what is the appropriate extent for leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities? In order to solve the three problems, the main research objects and contents of this thesis are:(1) A measurement and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration, which is to provide the basis for the subsequent research.(2) The theory analysis and empirical inspection of formation mechanism and influencing factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration.(3) Spatial correlation test and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration.(4) Discussion on the theory about the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities, and build a model to practical application.The dissertation contains eight parts. Chapter one: Introduction. Introduce the research background, the questions, elaborated the research significance, research objectives, research methods, data sources and technical route, and summarized possible innovations and deficiencies. Chapter two:Theoretical basis and literature review. Make a comprehensive review of the relevant literature and theory of leisure agriculture agglomeration, and put forward the starting point of this research, and explains the basic concepts and definition. Chapter three:The measurement and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Analyzed the current development situation of leisure agriculture agglomeration in china, and then compared Concentration Ration of Industry, Herfindahl Index, Space Gini coefficient, E-G Index, Location Quotient and θi index. Considering the availability of data and unified caliber, this thesis choose Location Quotient and θi index to measure and analysis leisure agriculture agglomeration degree at the national provincial level and jiangsu province and county level. Conclusion confirms the existence of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Chapter four:Analysis of the theory of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Based on the theory of new economic geography, this thesis constructs a theory analysis framework of leisure agriculture agglomeration, and researches its inherent mechanism, influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration and the agglomeration effect. And make theoretical discussion about the rational agglomeration degree in the background of the leisure agriculture projects mainly concentrated in the suburbs of cities. Chapter five:Inspection and analysis of spatial correlation of leisure agriculture agglomeration. According to the theory and analysis methods of spatial econometrics, the chapter makes an inspection and analysis of spatial correlation of leisure agriculture agglomeration through the Moran's I index, Moran plot and local spatial linkage spatial correlation index LISA. The conclusion is that leisure agriculture agglomeration has significant positive spatial correlation. This laid the foundation for the following research. Chapter six:Analysis of the influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration based on spatial econometric model. Based on previous research, this chapter makes the empirical study of the influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration by spatial lag panel data model and spatial durbin model. Chapter seven:The empirical study of the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities. This chapter builds a theory model to analysis the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities under different assumptions. This chapter also makes a case study of Nanjing, analyze the spatial structure of leisure agriculture development in Nanjing, and finally calculate the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of Nanjing. Chapter eight:Conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter gives a summary of the contents of each chapter, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations and further research directions.
The main conclusions of the thesis are:
(1) Based on the location quotient and θi index showed that, the leisure agriculture agglomeration phenomenon is obvious. Whether at the national level or the county level of Jiangsu Province, the leisure agriculture agglomeration degree is overall very high. But in Jiangsu Province, from2009to2011the degree showed a downward trend, leisure agriculture tends to be uniform distribution. From the relative point of view, Sichuan Province, Beijing city and Shanghai cite are the highest degree area of leisure agriculture agglomeration. The surrounding of Nanjing, Yangzhou, Suzhou, Zhenjiang city, has been the highest degree areas of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Although the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in most parts of North Jiangsu is the minimum, but with the rapid development, the degree improves constantly.
(2) Leisure agriculture agglomeration in China is driven by the market demand and the relative return rate of leisure agriculture, and Caused by the leisure agricultural multi-functionality and cumulative effect. Market size, transportation, tourism, agricultural resources, government policy and spatial spillover effect are the main factors of affecting the leisure agriculture agglomeration. Although leisure agriculture agglomeration will play a good effect on the enterprises, consumers, farmers, government and scholars, leisure agriculture agglomeration may also make negative effect, such as traffic congestion, environment pressures, and social tensions and reduce the attraction for visitors. In the thesis, the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities has two meanings, which are "Total demand fit" and "internal coordination"."Total demand fit" means the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities should to be identical with the needs of economic development."Internal coordination" means projects in the leisure agriculture agglomeration should find their own optimal size, input optimization and make the development of coordination.
(3)Spatial correlation test and analysis results show that, leisure agriculture agglomeration has significant positive spatial correlation in China. With the increase of distance, the spatial correlation decreases. The effect of Leisure agriculture agglomeration in counties of Jiangsu Province is within180km. Local spatial differences in leisure agriculture agglomeration is also very obvious. Beijing City, Tianjin city, Shanghai City, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei province and Yunnan province are hot region areas of leisure agricultural agglomeration in China. The suburbs of Nanjing and the Lishui County are leader of leisure agriculture development in Jiangsu province, has a positive and strong spillover effect on the surrounding area.
(4)By fully considering the space effect, the results of the empirical analysis of spatial econometric models display:Market size, transportation and tourism have a significant positive effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration. Human resource factors of agricultural resources also have a significantly positive effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration. Gross output value has a negative correlation with leisure agriculture agglomeration; this also proves that agglomeration in a certain region is not due to factor endowment advantage. At the same time, further analyses based on spatial Durbin model suggest that:Variables of market size, traffic condition and tourism have effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration not only to local areas but also to adjacent areas. But apart from the per capita disposable income of urban residents, indirect effects of other variables are not significant. It also shows localization of leisure agriculture:that the main visitors and practitioners are from the local.
(5) In the hypothetical conditions, estimates of the gravity model shows that, population of urban residents, per capita disposable income of urban residents and land area of leisure agriculture have a significant positive effect to the number of tourists. But the distance factor in this study also showed a positive effect. This is because although the number of leisure agricultural projects in the overall distribution in the suburbs cities showing the distance attenuation trend, the number of leisure agriculture projects increased in the distance from the center of the range of30km,reaching a peak began to fall. Considering spatial effect, the temporal gravity model estimation results show, although the population of urban residents and per capita disposable income in adjacent areas can amount to the region's agricultural leisure tourists, existed spatial spillover effect, but the overall effect is not significant. When In the prediction of leisure agriculture tourists, especially for the big city suburb, we could not consider the impact of adjacent areas. Analysis and model estimation results of Nanjing leisure agriculture show, leisure agriculture projects have a further development space in suburbs of Nanjing.
Through the above analysis, this thesis puts forward five policy suggestions for leisure agriculture agglomeration development, mainly includes:Firstly, study on leisure agriculture agglomeration deepening, guide its development with scientific methods. Secondly, to improve the management mechanism and support system, and completes the data statistics. Thirdly, when guiding leisure agriculture agglomeration, governments should consider the surrounding areas, make the development matches market demand. Fourthly, increase supportive strength of policy and financial, optimizing the environment for the development of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Fifth, coordinate relationships of local farmers and business capital, the interests of the farmers is the most important.
基于这些背景,本文研究的主要问题是：我国休闲农业产业集聚的现状和特征如何?在考虑空间效应的条件下,休闲农业产业集聚的内在机制和影响因素是什么?在供需平衡的分析视角下,对于某一个城市而言,其郊区的休闲农业项目集聚发展到什么程度比较合适?针对这三个问题,本文的具体研究目标和内容是：(1)休闲农业产业集聚的测度和分析,为后续的研究提供基础。(2)休闲农业产业集聚的形成机制与影响因素的理论研究及其实证检验。(3)休闲农业产业集聚的空间相关性判断与分析。(4)城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的理论探讨、模型构建和实际运用。
论文共分为八个部分。第一章：导言。介绍本文研究的背景,提出所要研究的问题,对本研究的研究意义、研究目标、研究方法、数据来源和技术路线进行阐述,归纳研究中可能的创新和存在的不足之处。第二章：理论基础与文献综述。对休闲农业和产业集聚的相关理论和文献进行全面梳理,并做出了分析和评述,提出了本文研究的切入点,最后对相关概念进行了说明和界定。第三章：休闲农业产业现状及集聚测度。对我国休闲农业的发展现状进行了分析,然后比较了行业集中度、赫芬达尔指数、空间基尼系数、空间E-G指数、区位熵和θi指数这六种产业集聚的测度方法。考虑到数据的可获得性和统一口径,本文选择区位熵和θi指数两种方法分别对全国省市层面和江苏省县域层面的休闲农业产业集聚程度进行了测算和分析,证明了休闲农业产业集聚现象的真实存在。第四章：理论研究。在新经济地理学理论的基础上,根据休闲农业的实际特点,构建了休闲农业产业集聚的理论分析框架,研究休闲农业集聚形成的内在机制、影响因素和集聚效应,并在目前休闲农业项目主要集聚在城市郊区发展这一背景下,对其合理集聚度做出了理论探讨。第五章：休闲农业产业集聚空间相关性的判断与分析。根据空间计量经济学的理论和分析方法,通过Moran's I才旨数、Moran散点图和局部空间联系指标LISA,从全局和局域两个角度对我国和江苏省的休闲农业产业集聚的空间相关性进行了检验和分析,得出了休闲农业产业集聚存在显著的空间正相关性的结论,为后文在研究中考虑空间因素奠定了基础。第六章：休闲农业产业集聚影响因素的空间计量分析。在前面章节的研究基础上,充分考虑了休闲农业产业集聚的空间效应,采用空间计量模型中的空间滞后面板数据模型和空间杜宾模型对休闲农业产业集聚的影响因素进行了实证研究和相应分析。第七章：城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的实证研究。在以上章节的研究基础上构建了城市郊区休闲农业项目集聚度的理论模型,并在不同的假设条件下进行了实证检验和分析。本章也以南京市为案例进行了研究,分析了南京市休闲农业发展的现状和郊区休闲农业项目的空间结构,最后计算了南京市城市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度。第八章：全文总结和政策建议。针对各章节的研究内容进行了总结,并提出了相应的政策建议和进一步的研究方向。
研究主要得出了以下结论：
(1)基于θi指数和区位熵这两种产业集聚测度方法的分析结果显示,目前我国休闲农业产业集聚的现象很明显,不论是在全国层面还是江苏省县域层面,休闲农业的整体集聚程度都很高。但江苏省的休闲农业整体集聚程度在2009~2011年间呈现出一个下降的趋势,休闲农业趋于均匀分布。从相对角度来看,四川省、北京市和上海市是全国层面上休闲农业相对集聚程度最高的地区,而南京市、扬州市、苏州市和镇江市周边一直都是江苏省休闲农业相对集聚程度最高的地区,苏北大部分地区的休闲农业相对集聚程度目前虽然最低,但发展迅速,集聚程度不断提高。
(2)我国休闲农业的产业集聚是由市场需求和休闲农业相对回报率双重因素所驱动,在休闲农业的多功能性特点和循环累积的作用下最终形成的,市场规模、交通条件、旅游基础、农业资源、政府政策和空间溢出效应是影响休闲农业产业集聚的主要因素。虽然休闲农业的产业集聚对企业、消费者、农民、政府和学者都会起到良好的效应,但是过度集聚也可能会使集聚区的交通拥挤,环境压力加大,社会关系紧张,对游客的吸引力降低,产生负面效果。城市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度有“总量适合度”和“内部协调度”这两层含义。“总量适合度”是指城市郊区休闲农业的集聚应该与城市和经济发展的需求相协调,“内部协调度”是指休闲农业集聚区的各种项目应该找到自己最优单体规模,优化投入,内部协调发展。
(3)空间相关性的检验和分析结果表明：我国的休闲农业产业集聚存在着显著的空间正相关关系,随着距离的增加,这种空间关联性逐渐减弱,休闲农业产业集聚在江苏省县市之间的影响范围在180km以内。休闲农业产业集聚的局域空间差异性也很明显,北京市、天津市、上海市、江苏省、浙江省、湖北省和云南省是我国休闲农业产业集聚的“热点区域”,不仅自身发展水平较高,跟周边省份也有良好的互动,整体呈现出比较高的集聚程度。南京市郊和溧水县是江苏省休闲农业发展的领跑者,对周边地区具有很强的正向空间溢出效应。
(4)在充分考虑空间效应的前提下,空间计量模型的实证分析结果显示：市场规模、交通条件和旅游基础因素对休闲农业产业集聚都有着显著的正向作用。农业资源中的人力资源因素对休闲农业的产业集聚有着显著正向影响,而农林牧渔总产值与休闲农业集聚度负相关,这也证明了新经济地理学中产业集聚在某个地区的形成并不是由于该地区的要素禀赋优势所致这一理论。同时,基于空间杜宾模型的进一步分析表明：本地区自变量市场规模、交通条件和旅游基础等因素的变化除了会对本地区的休闲农业产业集聚产生作用外,对邻近地区的休闲农业产业集聚也有着不同方向和程度的影响。但除了城镇居民人均可支配收入这个变量外,其他自变量的间接效应大都不显著,这也说明目前休闲农业发展的“本地化”：即主要客源来自于当地。
(5)在相应的假设条件下,引力模型的估计结果表明,城镇居民人口、城镇居民人均可支配收入和土地面积对休闲农业游客数量都有显著的正向作用,但是距离因素在本文的研究中也显示出正向作用。这是因为休闲农业项目数量在城市郊区的分布是先逐步增加,在距离市中心30km范围处形成一个密集带,此后才开始逐步下降。考虑空间效应的时空引力模型分析结果显示,虽然邻近地区的城镇居民人口和城镇居民人均可支配收入对本地区的休闲农业游客数量存在着空间溢出效应,但整体作用并不显著。对南京市休闲农业的分析和模型估计结果显示,南京市郊区的休闲农业项目还有进一步集聚发展的空间。在研究与其他省市接壤的某个城市的郊区休闲农业时,也必须考虑来自外省市的影响。例如,苏州市郊区的休闲农业应该受到苏州市和上海市这两个“中心城市”的共同作用,游客中既有苏州市本地居民,也有上海市的居民,存在着叠加效应。苏州市郊区的休闲农业项目集聚度必须同时考虑苏州市和上海市。
通过对全文的总结,本文提出了针对休闲农业产业集聚发展的五条政策建议,主要包括：第一,深化对休闲农业产业集聚的研究,科学引导其发展；第二,完善管理机制和支撑体系,做好数据统计工作；第三,与邻近地区协作互补,形成区域联动协调发展；第四,加大政策、资金扶持力度,优化休闲农业集聚发展的环境；第五,以农为本,协调处理当地农民与工商资本的关系。
With the increase of income and spare time of residents, as well as the transformation of agricultural model and improve of rural infrastructure, the demand of leisure agriculture of urban residents began to rise. Now, leisure agriculture in our country has entered a stage of rapid development, showing the trend of agglomeration in space. In the previous research, the study of leisure agriculture in our country is mostly about the summary of the problems, lag behind the practice development and lack the forward-looking guidance. At the same time, the present research on agglomeration is mainly in the industrial field, as the research on leisure agriculture agglomeration is basically in a blank state. Although leisure agriculture agglomeration has many good effects, such as reduce costs, improve utility, increase employment opportunities, beneficial to the further research, and promote economic development. But according to Hoover's optimal scale of industrial agglomeration theory, and research conclusions about the agglomeration effect in the field of manufacturing industry and circulation industry, leisure agriculture agglomeration may also make negative effect.
Based on these backgrounds, this thesis is mainly concerned with:what is the current situation and characteristics of leisure agriculture agglomeration in china? In considering the spatial effect, what are the inherent mechanism and influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration? In the view of the balance of supply and demand, what is the appropriate extent for leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities? In order to solve the three problems, the main research objects and contents of this thesis are:(1) A measurement and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration, which is to provide the basis for the subsequent research.(2) The theory analysis and empirical inspection of formation mechanism and influencing factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration.(3) Spatial correlation test and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration.(4) Discussion on the theory about the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities, and build a model to practical application.The dissertation contains eight parts. Chapter one: Introduction. Introduce the research background, the questions, elaborated the research significance, research objectives, research methods, data sources and technical route, and summarized possible innovations and deficiencies. Chapter two:Theoretical basis and literature review. Make a comprehensive review of the relevant literature and theory of leisure agriculture agglomeration, and put forward the starting point of this research, and explains the basic concepts and definition. Chapter three:The measurement and analysis of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Analyzed the current development situation of leisure agriculture agglomeration in china, and then compared Concentration Ration of Industry, Herfindahl Index, Space Gini coefficient, E-G Index, Location Quotient and θi index. Considering the availability of data and unified caliber, this thesis choose Location Quotient and θi index to measure and analysis leisure agriculture agglomeration degree at the national provincial level and jiangsu province and county level. Conclusion confirms the existence of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Chapter four:Analysis of the theory of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Based on the theory of new economic geography, this thesis constructs a theory analysis framework of leisure agriculture agglomeration, and researches its inherent mechanism, influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration and the agglomeration effect. And make theoretical discussion about the rational agglomeration degree in the background of the leisure agriculture projects mainly concentrated in the suburbs of cities. Chapter five:Inspection and analysis of spatial correlation of leisure agriculture agglomeration. According to the theory and analysis methods of spatial econometrics, the chapter makes an inspection and analysis of spatial correlation of leisure agriculture agglomeration through the Moran's I index, Moran plot and local spatial linkage spatial correlation index LISA. The conclusion is that leisure agriculture agglomeration has significant positive spatial correlation. This laid the foundation for the following research. Chapter six:Analysis of the influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration based on spatial econometric model. Based on previous research, this chapter makes the empirical study of the influence factors of leisure agriculture agglomeration by spatial lag panel data model and spatial durbin model. Chapter seven:The empirical study of the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities. This chapter builds a theory model to analysis the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities under different assumptions. This chapter also makes a case study of Nanjing, analyze the spatial structure of leisure agriculture development in Nanjing, and finally calculate the rational degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of Nanjing. Chapter eight:Conclusions and policy recommendations. This chapter gives a summary of the contents of each chapter, and put forward the corresponding policy recommendations and further research directions.
The main conclusions of the thesis are:
(1) Based on the location quotient and θi index showed that, the leisure agriculture agglomeration phenomenon is obvious. Whether at the national level or the county level of Jiangsu Province, the leisure agriculture agglomeration degree is overall very high. But in Jiangsu Province, from2009to2011the degree showed a downward trend, leisure agriculture tends to be uniform distribution. From the relative point of view, Sichuan Province, Beijing city and Shanghai cite are the highest degree area of leisure agriculture agglomeration. The surrounding of Nanjing, Yangzhou, Suzhou, Zhenjiang city, has been the highest degree areas of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Although the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in most parts of North Jiangsu is the minimum, but with the rapid development, the degree improves constantly.
(2) Leisure agriculture agglomeration in China is driven by the market demand and the relative return rate of leisure agriculture, and Caused by the leisure agricultural multi-functionality and cumulative effect. Market size, transportation, tourism, agricultural resources, government policy and spatial spillover effect are the main factors of affecting the leisure agriculture agglomeration. Although leisure agriculture agglomeration will play a good effect on the enterprises, consumers, farmers, government and scholars, leisure agriculture agglomeration may also make negative effect, such as traffic congestion, environment pressures, and social tensions and reduce the attraction for visitors. In the thesis, the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities has two meanings, which are "Total demand fit" and "internal coordination"."Total demand fit" means the degree of leisure agriculture agglomeration in the suburbs of cities should to be identical with the needs of economic development."Internal coordination" means projects in the leisure agriculture agglomeration should find their own optimal size, input optimization and make the development of coordination.
(3)Spatial correlation test and analysis results show that, leisure agriculture agglomeration has significant positive spatial correlation in China. With the increase of distance, the spatial correlation decreases. The effect of Leisure agriculture agglomeration in counties of Jiangsu Province is within180km. Local spatial differences in leisure agriculture agglomeration is also very obvious. Beijing City, Tianjin city, Shanghai City, Jiangsu Province, Zhejiang Province, Hubei province and Yunnan province are hot region areas of leisure agricultural agglomeration in China. The suburbs of Nanjing and the Lishui County are leader of leisure agriculture development in Jiangsu province, has a positive and strong spillover effect on the surrounding area.
(4)By fully considering the space effect, the results of the empirical analysis of spatial econometric models display:Market size, transportation and tourism have a significant positive effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration. Human resource factors of agricultural resources also have a significantly positive effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration. Gross output value has a negative correlation with leisure agriculture agglomeration; this also proves that agglomeration in a certain region is not due to factor endowment advantage. At the same time, further analyses based on spatial Durbin model suggest that:Variables of market size, traffic condition and tourism have effect to leisure agriculture agglomeration not only to local areas but also to adjacent areas. But apart from the per capita disposable income of urban residents, indirect effects of other variables are not significant. It also shows localization of leisure agriculture:that the main visitors and practitioners are from the local.
(5) In the hypothetical conditions, estimates of the gravity model shows that, population of urban residents, per capita disposable income of urban residents and land area of leisure agriculture have a significant positive effect to the number of tourists. But the distance factor in this study also showed a positive effect. This is because although the number of leisure agricultural projects in the overall distribution in the suburbs cities showing the distance attenuation trend, the number of leisure agriculture projects increased in the distance from the center of the range of30km,reaching a peak began to fall. Considering spatial effect, the temporal gravity model estimation results show, although the population of urban residents and per capita disposable income in adjacent areas can amount to the region's agricultural leisure tourists, existed spatial spillover effect, but the overall effect is not significant. When In the prediction of leisure agriculture tourists, especially for the big city suburb, we could not consider the impact of adjacent areas. Analysis and model estimation results of Nanjing leisure agriculture show, leisure agriculture projects have a further development space in suburbs of Nanjing.
Through the above analysis, this thesis puts forward five policy suggestions for leisure agriculture agglomeration development, mainly includes:Firstly, study on leisure agriculture agglomeration deepening, guide its development with scientific methods. Secondly, to improve the management mechanism and support system, and completes the data statistics. Thirdly, when guiding leisure agriculture agglomeration, governments should consider the surrounding areas, make the development matches market demand. Fourthly, increase supportive strength of policy and financial, optimizing the environment for the development of leisure agriculture agglomeration. Fifth, coordinate relationships of local farmers and business capital, the interests of the farmers is the most important.
引文
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