降雨影响敏感型滑坡变形动态预测方法及排水洞效果研究
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摘要
滑坡是常见的地质灾害,常常给工程建设造成巨大损失,并威胁生命财产安全。开展滑坡变形动态预测分析,研究滑坡治理技术,具有重要的现实意义。
针对滑坡灾害受降雨影响敏感的特点,通过理论分析、数值模拟,结合现场调查和监测,对滑坡在变形过程中各种环境因素的影响方式进行了分析。探讨了滑坡蠕变发展、潜水影响滑坡位移、降雨补给潜水的预测方法,开展了坡体非饱和带滞水量对降雨补给潜水的影响,研究了排水洞措施在滑坡中的优化布置原则。通过以上研究,获得了以下主要成果和认识：
(1)基于滑坡变形时序监测数据,开展了滑坡动态的自回归模型预测研究,提出将坡体位移转换为加速度后进行滑坡变形动态预测,从而消除了直接采用位移时间曲线的非线性对统计模型的影响。
(2)将单因素的自回归时间序列模型推广到多因素向量自回归模型,实现了多种变量的时间序列分析。通过对潜水-滑坡位移、降雨-潜水、降雨-潜水-排水流量等三组关系实现量纲转换,使多种数据间具备了相关关系,从而建立了滑坡的解析一经验统计模型分析方法。
(3)将潜水位变化与滑坡位移在剖面模型上进行量纲变换,在动力学层面上实现潜水位与滑坡位移加速度的量纲一致,从而将二者的转化量纳入向量自回归模型进行分析,达到可利用潜水位监测结果预测滑坡变形动态的目的。
(4)把潜水位变化分解为降雨抬升与自然回落两个部分。以潜水的降雨抬升量与降雨量进行向量自回归模型的分析。通过潜水位对降雨的滞后响应特征以及降雨阈值的分析,提出利用降雨信息对滑坡进行提前预警；
(5)对滑体中非饱和带滞水量进行了估算。以水量为转换指标,使降雨、潜水、排水洞的排水流量达到量纲一致。将潜水表达为释水量的形式,将三者纳入向量自回归模型中,根据前期潜水位较高条件下的降雨过程的数据拟合,获得计算模型,实现了前期潜水位较低条件下降雨过程中生成非饱和带滞水量的计算方法。通过滞水量与降雨入渗补给潜水效率的分析,得到了基于滞水量的降雨对潜水影响显著增强的阈值。
(6)分析了滑坡治理中排水洞的适用条件,探讨了排水洞在滑坡治理中的应用效果,提出了排水洞布置的一般原则,揭示了排水洞在滑坡后缘定水头和降雨条件下分别发挥的功效。
Landslide is a common geologic hazard. The construction would lose a lot and the safety of resident would be threatened by landslide. Therefore, the research for landslide dynamic deformation prediction and treatment technology have important realistic significance.
Focusing on the character that landslide is affected sensitively by rainfall, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation were used based on the field investigation and monitoring. The influence patterns of environmental factors for the landslide deformation were analyzed. The prediction methods of landslide creep deformation, landslide influenced by groundwater and groundwater variation supplied by rainfall were analyzed. The influence of backwater amount existing in unsaturated zone in rainfall supplying groundwater was analyzed. The principle about optimal location for drainage tunnel in landslide was analyzed. Finally, the main results and new ideas in this study are as follows:
(1) By the use of autoregressive model, the displacements were converted into acceleration to predict landslide deformation based on the time series monitoring data about landslide deformation. The negative effect of nonlinear displacement curve to statistical model was eliminated.
(2) The autoregressive model which only treats with single-factor time series was developed into vector autoregressive model which could treat with multi-factor time series. The relations about groundwater-landslide displacement, rainfall-groundwater and rainfall-groundwater-drainage discharge were analyzed by dimensional transformation. The several data types could have correlativity. And then, the analytical-statistical model for landslide was built;
(3) The dimensional transformation based on soil analytical model about groundwater variation and landslide deformation made the dimension consistent according to the acceleration. Both quantities transformed were taken into account in vector autoregressive model. The landslide displacement could be predicted by monitoring data of groundwater level.
(4) The variation of groundwater level could be divided into two parts, lifting by rainfall and natural retreat. The correlation analysis and vector autoregressive model analysis were used to analyze the relation between the amount lifting by rainfall and rainfall intensity. The landslide early warning could base on the study on lag characteristic and rainfall threshold, by the use of rainfall information.
(5) The backwater amount in unsaturated zone in landslide was estimated. The water amount was set as an index of dimensional transformation for rainfall, drainage discharge from tunnel and groundwater. The groundwater variation was converted into release water amount, and then the vector autoregressive model was fit to simulate the rainfall in the condition of high initial groundwater level. The model could compute the backwater amount in unsaturated zone in the condition of low initial groundwater level. The rainfall threshold about rainfall supplying groundwater was based on the factor of the backwater influence.
(6) The using conditions of drainage tunnel in landslide prevention were analyzed. The applied effect were discussed. And then the principle about the optimum location of tunnel was got. The roles of drainage tunnel in drainage in the condition of constant head and rainfall were analyzed.
针对滑坡灾害受降雨影响敏感的特点,通过理论分析、数值模拟,结合现场调查和监测,对滑坡在变形过程中各种环境因素的影响方式进行了分析。探讨了滑坡蠕变发展、潜水影响滑坡位移、降雨补给潜水的预测方法,开展了坡体非饱和带滞水量对降雨补给潜水的影响,研究了排水洞措施在滑坡中的优化布置原则。通过以上研究,获得了以下主要成果和认识：
(1)基于滑坡变形时序监测数据,开展了滑坡动态的自回归模型预测研究,提出将坡体位移转换为加速度后进行滑坡变形动态预测,从而消除了直接采用位移时间曲线的非线性对统计模型的影响。
(2)将单因素的自回归时间序列模型推广到多因素向量自回归模型,实现了多种变量的时间序列分析。通过对潜水-滑坡位移、降雨-潜水、降雨-潜水-排水流量等三组关系实现量纲转换,使多种数据间具备了相关关系,从而建立了滑坡的解析一经验统计模型分析方法。
(3)将潜水位变化与滑坡位移在剖面模型上进行量纲变换,在动力学层面上实现潜水位与滑坡位移加速度的量纲一致,从而将二者的转化量纳入向量自回归模型进行分析,达到可利用潜水位监测结果预测滑坡变形动态的目的。
(4)把潜水位变化分解为降雨抬升与自然回落两个部分。以潜水的降雨抬升量与降雨量进行向量自回归模型的分析。通过潜水位对降雨的滞后响应特征以及降雨阈值的分析,提出利用降雨信息对滑坡进行提前预警；
(5)对滑体中非饱和带滞水量进行了估算。以水量为转换指标,使降雨、潜水、排水洞的排水流量达到量纲一致。将潜水表达为释水量的形式,将三者纳入向量自回归模型中,根据前期潜水位较高条件下的降雨过程的数据拟合,获得计算模型,实现了前期潜水位较低条件下降雨过程中生成非饱和带滞水量的计算方法。通过滞水量与降雨入渗补给潜水效率的分析,得到了基于滞水量的降雨对潜水影响显著增强的阈值。
(6)分析了滑坡治理中排水洞的适用条件,探讨了排水洞在滑坡治理中的应用效果,提出了排水洞布置的一般原则,揭示了排水洞在滑坡后缘定水头和降雨条件下分别发挥的功效。
Landslide is a common geologic hazard. The construction would lose a lot and the safety of resident would be threatened by landslide. Therefore, the research for landslide dynamic deformation prediction and treatment technology have important realistic significance.
Focusing on the character that landslide is affected sensitively by rainfall, theoretical analysis and numerical simulation were used based on the field investigation and monitoring. The influence patterns of environmental factors for the landslide deformation were analyzed. The prediction methods of landslide creep deformation, landslide influenced by groundwater and groundwater variation supplied by rainfall were analyzed. The influence of backwater amount existing in unsaturated zone in rainfall supplying groundwater was analyzed. The principle about optimal location for drainage tunnel in landslide was analyzed. Finally, the main results and new ideas in this study are as follows:
(1) By the use of autoregressive model, the displacements were converted into acceleration to predict landslide deformation based on the time series monitoring data about landslide deformation. The negative effect of nonlinear displacement curve to statistical model was eliminated.
(2) The autoregressive model which only treats with single-factor time series was developed into vector autoregressive model which could treat with multi-factor time series. The relations about groundwater-landslide displacement, rainfall-groundwater and rainfall-groundwater-drainage discharge were analyzed by dimensional transformation. The several data types could have correlativity. And then, the analytical-statistical model for landslide was built;
(3) The dimensional transformation based on soil analytical model about groundwater variation and landslide deformation made the dimension consistent according to the acceleration. Both quantities transformed were taken into account in vector autoregressive model. The landslide displacement could be predicted by monitoring data of groundwater level.
(4) The variation of groundwater level could be divided into two parts, lifting by rainfall and natural retreat. The correlation analysis and vector autoregressive model analysis were used to analyze the relation between the amount lifting by rainfall and rainfall intensity. The landslide early warning could base on the study on lag characteristic and rainfall threshold, by the use of rainfall information.
(5) The backwater amount in unsaturated zone in landslide was estimated. The water amount was set as an index of dimensional transformation for rainfall, drainage discharge from tunnel and groundwater. The groundwater variation was converted into release water amount, and then the vector autoregressive model was fit to simulate the rainfall in the condition of high initial groundwater level. The model could compute the backwater amount in unsaturated zone in the condition of low initial groundwater level. The rainfall threshold about rainfall supplying groundwater was based on the factor of the backwater influence.
(6) The using conditions of drainage tunnel in landslide prevention were analyzed. The applied effect were discussed. And then the principle about the optimum location of tunnel was got. The roles of drainage tunnel in drainage in the condition of constant head and rainfall were analyzed.
引文
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