多种政策对我国物质流和价值流变化的综合作用分析
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摘要
为了实施可持续发展，各国利用多种政策手段来调控社会经济系统的行为，目前相对孤立的政策手段分析无法反映其综合性特点。本研究建立了一套分析多种政策手段综合作用的方法，能够反映多种政策手段共同实施对物质流和价值流的综合作用，识别政策手段的优先顺序及较优政策手段组合。
以我国为案例，本研究分析了我国典型政策手段对物质流和价值流的综合作用。所考虑的典型政策手段包括：征收环境税、资源税改革、产业投资结构调整、污染物减排工程投资、技术政策、废物综合利用和能源结构调整。在这7类典型政策手段的共同作用下，我国未来的国内生产总值将稳步增长，增长速度会逐渐放缓。我国的物质流规模将持续增加，经济增长与物质流呈现相对解耦趋势。依据模型测算结果，本研究还分析了我国的一系列物质调控目标。同时，本研究还分析了这7类典型政策手段对物质流和价值流的贡献作用，研究结果说明了对多种政策手段进行综合分析的必要性。
从经济增长的角度来看，决策者要优先关注技术政策、废物综合利用、产业投资结构调整和污染物减排工程投资，尤其要重点关注产业投资结构调整和污染物减排工程投资。从物质流减量化角度看，决策者要优先关注技术政策、能源结构调整、产业投资结构调整、资源税和环境税这5类政策手段，尤其要重点关注技术政策和环境税。其中，技术政策、产业投资结构调整和资源税是比较理想的3类政策手段。在实际的政策手段实施过程中，技术政策和产业投资结构调整政策的组合实施是一个较优的组合，它们可以同时实现经济增长和物质减量化的双重效果。在税收中性原则的前提下，我国在中长期可以适当扩大环境税的征收范围，适当提高环境税的税率。而且，我国应该继续探索产业投资结构调整的方向，并应该提高废物综合利用活动和可再生能源生产活动的技术水平。
在我国今后的可持续物质管理以及政策手段实施和优化过程中，决策者不仅要重点关注生产角度识别的关键部门及其对应的产品，更要关注最终需求角度识别的潜在驱动经济增长和物质流变化的关键部门及其对应的产品。
In order to achieve sustainable development, many countries are implementingvarious policies to adjust the behaviours of socio-economic systems. Current isolatedpolicy analysis cannot reflect integrated impacts of various policies. This studyproposed a methodology for analyzing integrated impacts of various policies. Thismethodology could model integrated impacts of various policies on physical andmonetary flows of socio-economic systems. It could also identify the priority of variouspolicies and their optimal combination.
Taking China as an example, this study analyzed integrated impacts of7categoriesof typical policies on economic growth and material flows. The policies consideredcomprised environmental taxation, resource tax reform, adjusted sectoral investment,pollutant reduction investment, technical policies, recyclable resource utilization, andenergy consumption structure adjustment. Under the integrated impacts of7categoriesof typical policies, China would achieve sustaining economic growth with graduallyreduced growth rate. The volume of material flows would gradually increase, and therewould appear a relative decoupling trend between material flows and economic growth.According to results, this study also analyzed China’s material reduction targets and thecontribution of7categories of typical policies to material flows and economic growth.These results indicated the necessity of analyzing integrated impacts of various policies.
From the viewpoint of economic growth, China should focus on technical policies,recyclable resource utilization, adjusted sectoral investment, and pollutant reductioninvestment. Special attention should be paid to adjusted sectoral investment andpollutant reduction investment. From the viewpoint of the dematerialization, Chianshould focus on technical policies, energy consumption structure adjustment, adjustedsectoral investment, resource tax reform, and environmental taxation. Special attentionshould be paid to technical policies and environmental taxation. In particular, technicalpolicies, adjusted sectoral investment, and resource tax reform were3categories ofperferred policies. During the implementation of policies, the combination of technicalpolicies and adjusted sectoral investment was preferred, as this kind of combinationcould achieve both economic growth and the dematerialization. Under the neutral taxation principle, China should properly extend the scope of environmental tax andincrease the rate of environmental tax during the medium and long term. In addition,China should continue to adjust sectoral investment and improve technical levels ofrecyclable resource utilization activities and renewable energy production activities.
During China’s sustainable materials management and the implementation andoptimization of policies, not only key sectors and their products identified fromproduction perspective but also that identified from final demand perspective should beconcerned, as key sectors and their products identified from final demand perspectiveare underlying drivers of economic growth and material flows.
以我国为案例，本研究分析了我国典型政策手段对物质流和价值流的综合作用。所考虑的典型政策手段包括：征收环境税、资源税改革、产业投资结构调整、污染物减排工程投资、技术政策、废物综合利用和能源结构调整。在这7类典型政策手段的共同作用下，我国未来的国内生产总值将稳步增长，增长速度会逐渐放缓。我国的物质流规模将持续增加，经济增长与物质流呈现相对解耦趋势。依据模型测算结果，本研究还分析了我国的一系列物质调控目标。同时，本研究还分析了这7类典型政策手段对物质流和价值流的贡献作用，研究结果说明了对多种政策手段进行综合分析的必要性。
从经济增长的角度来看，决策者要优先关注技术政策、废物综合利用、产业投资结构调整和污染物减排工程投资，尤其要重点关注产业投资结构调整和污染物减排工程投资。从物质流减量化角度看，决策者要优先关注技术政策、能源结构调整、产业投资结构调整、资源税和环境税这5类政策手段，尤其要重点关注技术政策和环境税。其中，技术政策、产业投资结构调整和资源税是比较理想的3类政策手段。在实际的政策手段实施过程中，技术政策和产业投资结构调整政策的组合实施是一个较优的组合，它们可以同时实现经济增长和物质减量化的双重效果。在税收中性原则的前提下，我国在中长期可以适当扩大环境税的征收范围，适当提高环境税的税率。而且，我国应该继续探索产业投资结构调整的方向，并应该提高废物综合利用活动和可再生能源生产活动的技术水平。
在我国今后的可持续物质管理以及政策手段实施和优化过程中，决策者不仅要重点关注生产角度识别的关键部门及其对应的产品，更要关注最终需求角度识别的潜在驱动经济增长和物质流变化的关键部门及其对应的产品。
In order to achieve sustainable development, many countries are implementingvarious policies to adjust the behaviours of socio-economic systems. Current isolatedpolicy analysis cannot reflect integrated impacts of various policies. This studyproposed a methodology for analyzing integrated impacts of various policies. Thismethodology could model integrated impacts of various policies on physical andmonetary flows of socio-economic systems. It could also identify the priority of variouspolicies and their optimal combination.
Taking China as an example, this study analyzed integrated impacts of7categoriesof typical policies on economic growth and material flows. The policies consideredcomprised environmental taxation, resource tax reform, adjusted sectoral investment,pollutant reduction investment, technical policies, recyclable resource utilization, andenergy consumption structure adjustment. Under the integrated impacts of7categoriesof typical policies, China would achieve sustaining economic growth with graduallyreduced growth rate. The volume of material flows would gradually increase, and therewould appear a relative decoupling trend between material flows and economic growth.According to results, this study also analyzed China’s material reduction targets and thecontribution of7categories of typical policies to material flows and economic growth.These results indicated the necessity of analyzing integrated impacts of various policies.
From the viewpoint of economic growth, China should focus on technical policies,recyclable resource utilization, adjusted sectoral investment, and pollutant reductioninvestment. Special attention should be paid to adjusted sectoral investment andpollutant reduction investment. From the viewpoint of the dematerialization, Chianshould focus on technical policies, energy consumption structure adjustment, adjustedsectoral investment, resource tax reform, and environmental taxation. Special attentionshould be paid to technical policies and environmental taxation. In particular, technicalpolicies, adjusted sectoral investment, and resource tax reform were3categories ofperferred policies. During the implementation of policies, the combination of technicalpolicies and adjusted sectoral investment was preferred, as this kind of combinationcould achieve both economic growth and the dematerialization. Under the neutral taxation principle, China should properly extend the scope of environmental tax andincrease the rate of environmental tax during the medium and long term. In addition,China should continue to adjust sectoral investment and improve technical levels ofrecyclable resource utilization activities and renewable energy production activities.
During China’s sustainable materials management and the implementation andoptimization of policies, not only key sectors and their products identified fromproduction perspective but also that identified from final demand perspective should beconcerned, as key sectors and their products identified from final demand perspectiveare underlying drivers of economic growth and material flows.
引文
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