煤炭供应链价格波动及对策研究
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摘要
煤炭是钢铁工业的重要原燃料。钢铁产能的快速增长,造成煤炭资源紧张,供需矛盾日益突出,价格总体水平不断上涨,阶段性波动较大。煤炭供应链价格构成复杂、影响因素很多,链中的每一个环节,尤其是煤炭价格波动、铁路运输“瓶颈”、国家产业政策等因素影响很大。因此,研究煤炭供应链价格波动及其形成机制,具有重要的理论与现实意义。
本文对煤炭供应链价格波动问题,分别从定性分析和定量预测、仿真与优化两方面进行了系统深入的研究,提出了相应的对策。主要研究内容如下:
1、分别从供应链入口、中间环节和出口三方面定性地分析了煤炭价格波动的影响因素和趋势,探讨了煤炭供应链的价格形成机制和价格波动规律。
2、借鉴平衡计分卡的思想,建立了基于SCOR模型、能正确地对煤炭供应链运作绩效进行定性/定量综合评价的指标体系,构建了基于该指标体系的煤炭供应链价格预测模型;采用ARIMA、ARIMA与神经网络杂交的预测方法、灰色预测方法分别对武钢煤炭供应链价格波动进行预测,获得了满意的结果,验证了所建立的煤炭供应链指标体系及煤炭供应链价格预测模型的正确性。
3、煤炭供应链多智能体建模与仿真研究。构造了煤炭供应链中的供应商智能体、采购商智能体及其他如生产、库存等一些智能体的模型,这些智能体具有按照市场规则在煤炭供应链中自主、智能、理性地完成煤炭交易的能力。在REPAST平台上实现了煤炭供应链多智能体仿真原型系统,并以武钢煤炭供应链仿真为例,对所建立的及煤炭供应链多智能体仿真模型和多智能体仿真原型系统进行了测试、检验和验证。结果表明本文提出的多智能体模型的正确性。
4、煤炭供应链优化策略研究。建立了供应商选择模型并研究了其求解算法,在满足综合采购成本最低的前提下,经实例验证,可得到多品种煤炭供应环境下多供应商的最优任务分派。将供应链系统抽象为结构模型,对供应链整体结构的可靠性进行了理论分析,得到了供应链系统可靠度计算的路集表现形式,并给出了网状供应链可靠度的最小路集计算模型。以多原料多产品的三级供应链为例,构建了供应链成本最小的可靠度优化模型,最后通过验证网状供应链的算例,证明了供应链系统单元重要度的有效性和合理性。
The coal is the iron and steel industry important crude fuel.The steel and iron produces can the fast growth,creates the coal resources to be intense,supply and demand contradictory day by day prominent,the price aggregate level rises unceasingly,the gradual undulation is big.The coal supply chain price constitution complex,the influence factor are very many,in chain each link,the coal price undulation,the railway transportation “the bottleneck”,factor influences and so on country industrial policy very is in particular big.Therefore, the research coal supply chain price undulates and forms the mechanism,has the important theory and the practical significance.
This article to the coal supply chain price undulation question,separately from the qualitative analysis and the quota forecast,the simulation and optimized two aspects to conduct the system thorough research,proposed the corresponding countermeasure.The main research content is as follows:
1st,separately from the supply chain entrance,the middle link and the export three aspects qualitative has analyzed the coal price undulation influence factor and the tendency,discussed the coal to supply the chain the price structure mechanism and the price undulation rule.
2nd,the model balance idea branch customs station thought,established based on the SCOR model,has been able correctly to carry on the qualitative/quota quality synthetic evaluation to the coal supply chain operation achievements the target system,has constructed based on this target system coal supply chain price forecast model;Uses ARIMA,ARIMA and the neural network hybrid forecast method,the gray forecast the method separately carries on the forecast to the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain price undulation,has obtained the satisfactory result, has confirmed the coal supply chain target system and the coal supply chain price forecast model accuracy which establishes.
3rd,the coal supply chain multiagent modeling and simulation research.In the structure coal supply chain supplier intelligence body,the purchasing agent intelligence body and other like production,the stock and so on some intelligent body model,these intelligent body had according to the market rule in the coal supply chain independent,the intelligence,rationally completes the coal transaction ability.Has realized the coal supply chain multiagent simulation prototype system in the REPAST platform,and take the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain simulation as the example,to and the coal supply chain multiagent simulation model and the multiagent simulation prototype system which establishes has carried on the test,the examination and the confirmation.The result indicated this article proposed multi-intelligent phantom accuracy.
4th,the coal supply chain optimizes the strategy research.Established the supplier to choose the model and to study its solution algorithm,in satisfied under the synthesis purchase cost lowest premise,after the example confirmation,might obtain under the multi-variety coal supply environment the multi-supplier's most superior duty distribution.In the paper,the author will supply the chain system abstractly will be the structural model,to supplied the chain overall construction the reliability to carry on the theoretical analysis,obtained the supply chain system margin of safety computation road collection manifestation,and has given the netted supply chain margin of safety most alley collection computation model.The paper take the multi-raw material multi-product three level of supply chain as an example, has constructed the supply chain cost smallest margin of safety optimization model, finally supplies the chain through the confirmation lattice the example,has proven the supply chain system unit importance validity and the rationality.
本文对煤炭供应链价格波动问题,分别从定性分析和定量预测、仿真与优化两方面进行了系统深入的研究,提出了相应的对策。主要研究内容如下:
1、分别从供应链入口、中间环节和出口三方面定性地分析了煤炭价格波动的影响因素和趋势,探讨了煤炭供应链的价格形成机制和价格波动规律。
2、借鉴平衡计分卡的思想,建立了基于SCOR模型、能正确地对煤炭供应链运作绩效进行定性/定量综合评价的指标体系,构建了基于该指标体系的煤炭供应链价格预测模型;采用ARIMA、ARIMA与神经网络杂交的预测方法、灰色预测方法分别对武钢煤炭供应链价格波动进行预测,获得了满意的结果,验证了所建立的煤炭供应链指标体系及煤炭供应链价格预测模型的正确性。
3、煤炭供应链多智能体建模与仿真研究。构造了煤炭供应链中的供应商智能体、采购商智能体及其他如生产、库存等一些智能体的模型,这些智能体具有按照市场规则在煤炭供应链中自主、智能、理性地完成煤炭交易的能力。在REPAST平台上实现了煤炭供应链多智能体仿真原型系统,并以武钢煤炭供应链仿真为例,对所建立的及煤炭供应链多智能体仿真模型和多智能体仿真原型系统进行了测试、检验和验证。结果表明本文提出的多智能体模型的正确性。
4、煤炭供应链优化策略研究。建立了供应商选择模型并研究了其求解算法,在满足综合采购成本最低的前提下,经实例验证,可得到多品种煤炭供应环境下多供应商的最优任务分派。将供应链系统抽象为结构模型,对供应链整体结构的可靠性进行了理论分析,得到了供应链系统可靠度计算的路集表现形式,并给出了网状供应链可靠度的最小路集计算模型。以多原料多产品的三级供应链为例,构建了供应链成本最小的可靠度优化模型,最后通过验证网状供应链的算例,证明了供应链系统单元重要度的有效性和合理性。
The coal is the iron and steel industry important crude fuel.The steel and iron produces can the fast growth,creates the coal resources to be intense,supply and demand contradictory day by day prominent,the price aggregate level rises unceasingly,the gradual undulation is big.The coal supply chain price constitution complex,the influence factor are very many,in chain each link,the coal price undulation,the railway transportation “the bottleneck”,factor influences and so on country industrial policy very is in particular big.Therefore, the research coal supply chain price undulates and forms the mechanism,has the important theory and the practical significance.
This article to the coal supply chain price undulation question,separately from the qualitative analysis and the quota forecast,the simulation and optimized two aspects to conduct the system thorough research,proposed the corresponding countermeasure.The main research content is as follows:
1st,separately from the supply chain entrance,the middle link and the export three aspects qualitative has analyzed the coal price undulation influence factor and the tendency,discussed the coal to supply the chain the price structure mechanism and the price undulation rule.
2nd,the model balance idea branch customs station thought,established based on the SCOR model,has been able correctly to carry on the qualitative/quota quality synthetic evaluation to the coal supply chain operation achievements the target system,has constructed based on this target system coal supply chain price forecast model;Uses ARIMA,ARIMA and the neural network hybrid forecast method,the gray forecast the method separately carries on the forecast to the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain price undulation,has obtained the satisfactory result, has confirmed the coal supply chain target system and the coal supply chain price forecast model accuracy which establishes.
3rd,the coal supply chain multiagent modeling and simulation research.In the structure coal supply chain supplier intelligence body,the purchasing agent intelligence body and other like production,the stock and so on some intelligent body model,these intelligent body had according to the market rule in the coal supply chain independent,the intelligence,rationally completes the coal transaction ability.Has realized the coal supply chain multiagent simulation prototype system in the REPAST platform,and take the Wuhan Steel Corporation coal supply chain simulation as the example,to and the coal supply chain multiagent simulation model and the multiagent simulation prototype system which establishes has carried on the test,the examination and the confirmation.The result indicated this article proposed multi-intelligent phantom accuracy.
4th,the coal supply chain optimizes the strategy research.Established the supplier to choose the model and to study its solution algorithm,in satisfied under the synthesis purchase cost lowest premise,after the example confirmation,might obtain under the multi-variety coal supply environment the multi-supplier's most superior duty distribution.In the paper,the author will supply the chain system abstractly will be the structural model,to supplied the chain overall construction the reliability to carry on the theoretical analysis,obtained the supply chain system margin of safety computation road collection manifestation,and has given the netted supply chain margin of safety most alley collection computation model.The paper take the multi-raw material multi-product three level of supply chain as an example, has constructed the supply chain cost smallest margin of safety optimization model, finally supplies the chain through the confirmation lattice the example,has proven the supply chain system unit importance validity and the rationality.
引文
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