江苏种植业风险与农业保险问题研究
摘要
农业是弱质产业,其经济效益低,特别是我国加入WTO以后,农业面临自然和市场双重风险。农业保险制度不仅是农业保障体系中重要组成部分,而且已成为国际上最重要的非价格农业保护工具之一,被WTO组织认为所允许的国家扶持农业发展的“绿箱”政策之一。在我国施行农业保险是与国际农业接轨的必然步骤。
本研究以江苏农业保险为视角,基于以下原因:2007年江苏省被农业部、财政部、保监会列为全国六个农业保险试点省份之一,已经形成淮安联办共保、苏州委托代办、无锡共保体授权经营模式。同时,江苏民众农业保险公司正在积极筹建中。农业保险在江苏的试点初具成效,积累了较好的工作经验,总结实践并进行理论研究对全国大范围推广农业保险具有良好的辐射作用。
在综述国内外有关农业保险理论研究的基础上,采用定性和定量研究、规范和实证研究相结合的方式,从农户农业保险需求的角度研究江苏农业保险问题。本文分为八章,主要研究内容和结论如下:
研究内容一:农业保险在农户分散种植业风险措施中的需求序
一般地,农户会采取以下措施规避风险:种植品种多元化;详细了解农产品价格市场信息;采用农业新技术,增加抗风险投入;参加农业保险;参加农业合作组织或专业协会;寻求政府帮助等.调查结果表明,目前农户趋向于依靠自身的力量来规避农业风险。受传统思维习惯的影响,农户较少依靠外部力量,即使选择外部力量来规避农业风险,也首选传统意义上的政府资助的方式。农业保险在规避农业风险的措施选择中位于后列。
研究内容二:当前江苏农业保险险种设置和承保水平的合理性问题
农业保险的险种设置和农业保险的产量承保水平是农业保险条款的重要内容,直接影响农户对农业保险的需求程度。目前以江苏的农业保险试点来看,试点的险种偏少,主要是稻谷和小麦,而这两个险种在整个种植业品种中风险程度不高,分别位于风险程度最弱的第一位和第三位。另外,赔偿标准为减产“70%以上”,实证结果说明江苏稻谷亩产量达到赔偿标准的可能性极小,这样的承保水平对农户参加农业保险没有吸引力。
研究内容三:农户农业保险措施选择的影响因素
农户农业保险措施的选择需求因素包括农户家庭特征(主要包括家庭人口、性别、务农年限、受教育程度、是否为村干部)、需求诱致因素(是否听说过农业保险,是否借过款用于农业生产,农业保险的险种是否合理,承保水平是否满意)、自然禀赋因素(自然灾害损失率,人均耕地面积)及兼业化情况(外出打工收入占家庭总收入的比重,种植业收入占家庭收入的比重)。采用多元选择模型来分析农户在分散风险措施中选择农业保险的影响因素。
计量检验和分析表明受教育程度高、村干部、听说过农业保险、保险险种合理、承保水平高、人均耕地面积多以及种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重大等因素对农业保险的需求总体起正向作用。
研究内容四:合作制农业保险模式分析
经营模式是农业保险内容的重要组成部分。构建一个静态博弈框架,通过博弈模型来分析合作制保险中政府、农户和农业保险合作社(相互会社)之间的利益关系选择,即从均衡的角度来考察合作制农业保险。得到两个纳仕均衡,即农户不愿参加农业保险合作社、保险合作社不愿经营;政府不支持合作社、合作社不愿进行合作制运行,并从理论上探讨了合作制农业保险难以成功的原因。
Agriculture is a weak industry with low economical efficiency. Since China joined WTO, agriculture has been facing both nature and market dual risks. The agricultural insurance system not only acts as the important component in the agricultural safeguard system, but also has become one of the most important non-price agriculture protection tools internationally, which was accepted by WTO as one of the national supported "green box" policies. Executing the agricultural insurance in our country is an inevitable action incorporating into the international agriculture.
We carried out our research on agricultural insurance in Jiangsu Province because Jiangsu Province was listed as one of the six agricultural insurance experimental provinces by the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance, the Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2007. Agricultural insurance in Jiangsu has already formed Huai-An, Su-zhou and Wu-xi patterns. In the mean time the Jiangsu Min-Zong agricultural insurance company is under construction. The experiment of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu has accumulated a lot of experience. So summary of practical experience and theorectical research may have positive radiational effect on the national promotion of agricultural insurance.
Based on the summary of domestic and foreign theoretical research on agricultural insurance, we studied Jiangsu agricultural insurance from farmers' angle in qualitative and quantitative, standard and empirical study approaches. This thesis consists of eight chapters. We list four main aspects of our research as follows.
Research 1: The position of agricultural insurance in the sequence of demands from farmers in scattering plantation risks
In general, farmers choose from the following measures to avoid risks: planting variety of species, learning more about the price information of agricultural market, introducing new agricultural technologies; participating in agricultural insurance, participating in agricultural cooperative organizations or professional associations, seeking for help from government, and so on. Research results showed that farmers now tend to rely on their own to decrease agricultural risk. Affected by traditional habits, farmers usually depend little on external forces; even if farmers utilize external forces to avoid agricultural risk, they prefer the traditional way of government-fund help. Agricultural insurance lies in the back of all means of avoiding plantation risks.
Research 2: Study on the types of agricultural insurance and the coverage levels in Jiangsu Province
The types of agricultural insurance and the coverage levels have direct impact on farmers' demand for agricultural insurance. The types of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu are mainly rice and wheat. However, the degree of risk of these two species is not high, which are listed in the last and the last but two of all species. In addition, the coverage level is "more than 70 percent" decrease in production. Results showed that this coverage level has seldom been met in Jiangsu and this level is unattractive to farmers.
Research 3: The impacting factors for farmers to choose agricultural insurance
The impacting factors of farmers in choosing agricultural insurance include family features (family size, gender, farming years, education and local status), demanding factors (knowledge of the agricultural insurance, loaning history, attitude to the types of agricultural insurance and the level of coverage), intrinsic nature factors (loss due to natural disasters, the per capita arable area) and other incomes (proportion of wage of working out in total household income, proportion of farming in total household income). We use the multinomial logit model to analyse the impacting factors of farmers in choosing agricultural insurance.
Empirical study shows that high level of education, high local status, and much knowledge of agricultural insurance, satisfaction of insurance types and coverage levels, much per capita area of arable land and large propotion of planting revenue in the total household income play an positive role in the demand for agricultural insurance.
Research 4: Analysis of cooperation form in the agricultural insurance
Running mode is an important part in agricultural insurance. We constructed a static framework of game theory to analyse cooperation form in the insurance. The choice among farmers, government and agricultural cooperatives (mutual clubs) leads to two Nash-balances. Results showed that farmers would be unwilling to join in the agricultural insurance cooperatives, insurance coporations would not give offer and the government would not support cooperative forms. That is, cooperatives operating system would not be possible. Finally, we gave the theorectial reasons why the cooperative system in the agricultural insurance would fail.
本研究以江苏农业保险为视角,基于以下原因:2007年江苏省被农业部、财政部、保监会列为全国六个农业保险试点省份之一,已经形成淮安联办共保、苏州委托代办、无锡共保体授权经营模式。同时,江苏民众农业保险公司正在积极筹建中。农业保险在江苏的试点初具成效,积累了较好的工作经验,总结实践并进行理论研究对全国大范围推广农业保险具有良好的辐射作用。
在综述国内外有关农业保险理论研究的基础上,采用定性和定量研究、规范和实证研究相结合的方式,从农户农业保险需求的角度研究江苏农业保险问题。本文分为八章,主要研究内容和结论如下:
研究内容一:农业保险在农户分散种植业风险措施中的需求序
一般地,农户会采取以下措施规避风险:种植品种多元化;详细了解农产品价格市场信息;采用农业新技术,增加抗风险投入;参加农业保险;参加农业合作组织或专业协会;寻求政府帮助等.调查结果表明,目前农户趋向于依靠自身的力量来规避农业风险。受传统思维习惯的影响,农户较少依靠外部力量,即使选择外部力量来规避农业风险,也首选传统意义上的政府资助的方式。农业保险在规避农业风险的措施选择中位于后列。
研究内容二:当前江苏农业保险险种设置和承保水平的合理性问题
农业保险的险种设置和农业保险的产量承保水平是农业保险条款的重要内容,直接影响农户对农业保险的需求程度。目前以江苏的农业保险试点来看,试点的险种偏少,主要是稻谷和小麦,而这两个险种在整个种植业品种中风险程度不高,分别位于风险程度最弱的第一位和第三位。另外,赔偿标准为减产“70%以上”,实证结果说明江苏稻谷亩产量达到赔偿标准的可能性极小,这样的承保水平对农户参加农业保险没有吸引力。
研究内容三:农户农业保险措施选择的影响因素
农户农业保险措施的选择需求因素包括农户家庭特征(主要包括家庭人口、性别、务农年限、受教育程度、是否为村干部)、需求诱致因素(是否听说过农业保险,是否借过款用于农业生产,农业保险的险种是否合理,承保水平是否满意)、自然禀赋因素(自然灾害损失率,人均耕地面积)及兼业化情况(外出打工收入占家庭总收入的比重,种植业收入占家庭收入的比重)。采用多元选择模型来分析农户在分散风险措施中选择农业保险的影响因素。
计量检验和分析表明受教育程度高、村干部、听说过农业保险、保险险种合理、承保水平高、人均耕地面积多以及种植业收入占家庭总收入的比重大等因素对农业保险的需求总体起正向作用。
研究内容四:合作制农业保险模式分析
经营模式是农业保险内容的重要组成部分。构建一个静态博弈框架,通过博弈模型来分析合作制保险中政府、农户和农业保险合作社(相互会社)之间的利益关系选择,即从均衡的角度来考察合作制农业保险。得到两个纳仕均衡,即农户不愿参加农业保险合作社、保险合作社不愿经营;政府不支持合作社、合作社不愿进行合作制运行,并从理论上探讨了合作制农业保险难以成功的原因。
Agriculture is a weak industry with low economical efficiency. Since China joined WTO, agriculture has been facing both nature and market dual risks. The agricultural insurance system not only acts as the important component in the agricultural safeguard system, but also has become one of the most important non-price agriculture protection tools internationally, which was accepted by WTO as one of the national supported "green box" policies. Executing the agricultural insurance in our country is an inevitable action incorporating into the international agriculture.
We carried out our research on agricultural insurance in Jiangsu Province because Jiangsu Province was listed as one of the six agricultural insurance experimental provinces by the Ministry of Agriculture, the Ministry of Finance, the Insurance Regulatory Commission in 2007. Agricultural insurance in Jiangsu has already formed Huai-An, Su-zhou and Wu-xi patterns. In the mean time the Jiangsu Min-Zong agricultural insurance company is under construction. The experiment of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu has accumulated a lot of experience. So summary of practical experience and theorectical research may have positive radiational effect on the national promotion of agricultural insurance.
Based on the summary of domestic and foreign theoretical research on agricultural insurance, we studied Jiangsu agricultural insurance from farmers' angle in qualitative and quantitative, standard and empirical study approaches. This thesis consists of eight chapters. We list four main aspects of our research as follows.
Research 1: The position of agricultural insurance in the sequence of demands from farmers in scattering plantation risks
In general, farmers choose from the following measures to avoid risks: planting variety of species, learning more about the price information of agricultural market, introducing new agricultural technologies; participating in agricultural insurance, participating in agricultural cooperative organizations or professional associations, seeking for help from government, and so on. Research results showed that farmers now tend to rely on their own to decrease agricultural risk. Affected by traditional habits, farmers usually depend little on external forces; even if farmers utilize external forces to avoid agricultural risk, they prefer the traditional way of government-fund help. Agricultural insurance lies in the back of all means of avoiding plantation risks.
Research 2: Study on the types of agricultural insurance and the coverage levels in Jiangsu Province
The types of agricultural insurance and the coverage levels have direct impact on farmers' demand for agricultural insurance. The types of agricultural insurance in Jiangsu are mainly rice and wheat. However, the degree of risk of these two species is not high, which are listed in the last and the last but two of all species. In addition, the coverage level is "more than 70 percent" decrease in production. Results showed that this coverage level has seldom been met in Jiangsu and this level is unattractive to farmers.
Research 3: The impacting factors for farmers to choose agricultural insurance
The impacting factors of farmers in choosing agricultural insurance include family features (family size, gender, farming years, education and local status), demanding factors (knowledge of the agricultural insurance, loaning history, attitude to the types of agricultural insurance and the level of coverage), intrinsic nature factors (loss due to natural disasters, the per capita arable area) and other incomes (proportion of wage of working out in total household income, proportion of farming in total household income). We use the multinomial logit model to analyse the impacting factors of farmers in choosing agricultural insurance.
Empirical study shows that high level of education, high local status, and much knowledge of agricultural insurance, satisfaction of insurance types and coverage levels, much per capita area of arable land and large propotion of planting revenue in the total household income play an positive role in the demand for agricultural insurance.
Research 4: Analysis of cooperation form in the agricultural insurance
Running mode is an important part in agricultural insurance. We constructed a static framework of game theory to analyse cooperation form in the insurance. The choice among farmers, government and agricultural cooperatives (mutual clubs) leads to two Nash-balances. Results showed that farmers would be unwilling to join in the agricultural insurance cooperatives, insurance coporations would not give offer and the government would not support cooperative forms. That is, cooperatives operating system would not be possible. Finally, we gave the theorectial reasons why the cooperative system in the agricultural insurance would fail.
引文
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