我国地方财政风险及其防范研究
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摘要
近年来,“世界共解财政难题”己引起各国的重视。而财政难题中的难中之难,在于财政风险问题。它既是现代财政学的一个重要的研究领域,也是一个重要的理论前沿。财政风险分为中央财政风险和地方财政风险。虽然地方财政风险多数情况下集中在局部地区,只对区域性经济产生直接影响,但作为国家财政的有机组成部分,地方财政系统的稳定运行将间接影响到中央财政的稳定与发展。近十年来,国内外学者对财政风险的理论探讨已经有了一些进展,对财政风险问题的纷争也一直没有停止,并产生了许多颇有见地的理论和观点。但受各种因素的制约,多数的研究仍集中在中央财政风险问题上,对地方财政风险的研究不多,尚未形成一个全面系统的理论体系。作者希望对地方财政风险理论及实践进行深入探讨,以期解开地方财政风险之谜。
作者以地方财政风险的内涵、分类、特征、成因、防范为主线,以地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险三大类地方财政风险为辅线,展开了深入研究。在系统回顾国内外风险理论、政府债务理论以及财政风险理论的基础上,作者首先阐明了地方财政风险的内涵、分类、表现及特征。然后,借助公共经济学、制度经济学和信息经济学的相关理论,从地方官员举债行为、地方财政收支矛盾以及政府与公共风险的辨证关系等角度出发,分别剖析了地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险的形成机理。随后,作者结合地方财政以及整个社会经济生活的现状,分别从地方政府债务管理因素、地方财政收支平衡因素以及经济运行中的公共风险因素三个视角,运用问卷调查方法进一步探讨了地方财政风险的影响因素。在此基础上,作者建立了地方财政风险评估指标体系,运用基于AHP 的熵权模糊综合评价方法对重庆市40个区县2003 年地方财政风险进行了评估。根据计算结果,作者借助Spearman 相关性分析和AMOS 软件提供的结构方程分析功能,论证了地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险和地方财政承担的公共风险这三类地方财政风险之间的风险传导机制。最后,作者就地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险三类财政风险提出了相应的防范建议。
作者的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面:
① 作者力图对地方政府的举债行为进行全面的剖析。首先,作者论述了依靠地方政府举债来满足地方公共品生产融资需求的合理性。其次,作者基于尼斯坎南的官僚体制模型,分析了在“地方政府债务预算最大化”、“地方政府官员效用最大化”以及“在具有偿债压力条件下地方政府官员效用最大化”三种假设条件
In recent years, the difficult public financial issue causes the attention of various countries. The most difficult problem in this field is the risk issue. Fiscal risk is divided into central fiscal risk and local fiscal risk. Local fiscal risk is concentrated on some areas under most situations so as to produce direct influence only on regional economy, but the steady operation of the local fiscal system will affect the stability and development of the central finance indirectly. In the past ten years, the domestic and international scholars have had some progress of the theory of the fiscal risk, and never stopped discussing the issue of fiscal risk, which has produced a lot of theory and view with insight. But limited by various kinds of factors, most research is still concentrated on risk of central finance, there is little study on local fiscal risk.that it has not formed an overall and systematic theoretical system yet. The thesis hopes to carry on further investigation on theory and practice of our country's local fiscal risk, in order to find a clue to the mystery of the local fiscal risk.
This thesis takes deep into the study which hold the discuss of connotation, level, representations, characteristics, resons, precautions of local fiscal risk as the main thread and regard local governmental debt’s risk, local fincancial department risk and public risk undertaken in local government as the auxiliary line. Based on the review of the risk theory、governmental debt’s theory and the local fiscal risk’s theory, the author firstly dicuss the meaning、classification、representation and characters of local fiscal risk in China.Then according to public economics and its relevant theories, the author analyzes thoroughly the formation mechanism of the local governmental debt’s risk 、the local fiscal risk and the public risk that local finance undertak from three angles of view which are the borrowing behavior of local government,the inherent expanding theory of local expenditure compared with the local fiscal revenues, the dialectical relation between public risk and government.Subsequently,the author analyzes influence factor’s analysis of the local financial risk from factor in local fiscal debt’s management, local fiscal balance factor and the public risk factor in economical operation respectively by questionare. Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism and influence of local fiscal, the author sets up the index system of local financial risk and builds an early warning model based AHP of entropy fuzzy,.By testing real example data of 40 counties in Chongqing using correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS
structure equation ,the author proves the logic relation among these three kind of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. Finally, the author puts forward the countermeasures on three kind of local fiscal risk repectively. The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: This thesis tries hard to analyzes the overall frame of the behavior in local governmental financing. First of all, the author proves economic rationality and financial rationality that the local government borrows money. Secondly, drawing lessons from Niskanen’s bureaucracy model, the thesis constructs the political economy model that the local government borrows money under the three assumed conditions which are " the debt budget of local government is maximized ", " local government official's utility is maximized " and " pay the debts under the pressure condition local government official's utility is maximized ". Specially, setting up the local government official's pressure factor of payment of debts, this thesis proves that the larger the local government’pressure of paying the debts, the less scale of borrowing money of scale and public product is liked to be offered. Thirdly, based on the analysis of information asymmetry during the china’s institutional transfer, the author considers that no good supervise to the local government may make them borrow money blindly. Based on the theory of public risk, the author builds up analytic structure about public and private risk. Through analysing to economics of public risk and private risk, it sets up sharing models optimumly of public risk and private risk. It figures out the optimal point under the private budget limitation and financial budget limitation. This point makes the public and private risk optimized. The author tries hard to synthesize foreign financial risk research experience and China’s situation.in order to builds up a scientific evaluation system. The author chooses static, dynamic and structure index synthetically and adopts the right law of entropy to evaluate local fiscal risk of chongqing in 2003.According to the result of empirical calculation, the author uses correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS structure equation, then proves the logic relation among these three kinds of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. On the basis of the experience to financial risk management of OECD countries, the author puts forward concrete measure for the budget accounting reform, so as to improve information quality of the governmental accounting, then sets up the debt risk’s
英文摘要limited mechanism of local government for the supervision from higer rank’s government to lower one. At last the author put forword the counter measure for improving the financial transparency to make government accept the surveillance by the masses.
作者以地方财政风险的内涵、分类、特征、成因、防范为主线,以地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险三大类地方财政风险为辅线,展开了深入研究。在系统回顾国内外风险理论、政府债务理论以及财政风险理论的基础上,作者首先阐明了地方财政风险的内涵、分类、表现及特征。然后,借助公共经济学、制度经济学和信息经济学的相关理论,从地方官员举债行为、地方财政收支矛盾以及政府与公共风险的辨证关系等角度出发,分别剖析了地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险的形成机理。随后,作者结合地方财政以及整个社会经济生活的现状,分别从地方政府债务管理因素、地方财政收支平衡因素以及经济运行中的公共风险因素三个视角,运用问卷调查方法进一步探讨了地方财政风险的影响因素。在此基础上,作者建立了地方财政风险评估指标体系,运用基于AHP 的熵权模糊综合评价方法对重庆市40个区县2003 年地方财政风险进行了评估。根据计算结果,作者借助Spearman 相关性分析和AMOS 软件提供的结构方程分析功能,论证了地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险和地方财政承担的公共风险这三类地方财政风险之间的风险传导机制。最后,作者就地方政府债务风险、地方财政收支风险、地方财政承担的公共风险三类财政风险提出了相应的防范建议。
作者的创新点主要体现在以下几个方面:
① 作者力图对地方政府的举债行为进行全面的剖析。首先,作者论述了依靠地方政府举债来满足地方公共品生产融资需求的合理性。其次,作者基于尼斯坎南的官僚体制模型,分析了在“地方政府债务预算最大化”、“地方政府官员效用最大化”以及“在具有偿债压力条件下地方政府官员效用最大化”三种假设条件
In recent years, the difficult public financial issue causes the attention of various countries. The most difficult problem in this field is the risk issue. Fiscal risk is divided into central fiscal risk and local fiscal risk. Local fiscal risk is concentrated on some areas under most situations so as to produce direct influence only on regional economy, but the steady operation of the local fiscal system will affect the stability and development of the central finance indirectly. In the past ten years, the domestic and international scholars have had some progress of the theory of the fiscal risk, and never stopped discussing the issue of fiscal risk, which has produced a lot of theory and view with insight. But limited by various kinds of factors, most research is still concentrated on risk of central finance, there is little study on local fiscal risk.that it has not formed an overall and systematic theoretical system yet. The thesis hopes to carry on further investigation on theory and practice of our country's local fiscal risk, in order to find a clue to the mystery of the local fiscal risk.
This thesis takes deep into the study which hold the discuss of connotation, level, representations, characteristics, resons, precautions of local fiscal risk as the main thread and regard local governmental debt’s risk, local fincancial department risk and public risk undertaken in local government as the auxiliary line. Based on the review of the risk theory、governmental debt’s theory and the local fiscal risk’s theory, the author firstly dicuss the meaning、classification、representation and characters of local fiscal risk in China.Then according to public economics and its relevant theories, the author analyzes thoroughly the formation mechanism of the local governmental debt’s risk 、the local fiscal risk and the public risk that local finance undertak from three angles of view which are the borrowing behavior of local government,the inherent expanding theory of local expenditure compared with the local fiscal revenues, the dialectical relation between public risk and government.Subsequently,the author analyzes influence factor’s analysis of the local financial risk from factor in local fiscal debt’s management, local fiscal balance factor and the public risk factor in economical operation respectively by questionare. Based on the analysis of the formation mechanism and influence of local fiscal, the author sets up the index system of local financial risk and builds an early warning model based AHP of entropy fuzzy,.By testing real example data of 40 counties in Chongqing using correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS
structure equation ,the author proves the logic relation among these three kind of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. Finally, the author puts forward the countermeasures on three kind of local fiscal risk repectively. The innovation points of this thesis are as follows: This thesis tries hard to analyzes the overall frame of the behavior in local governmental financing. First of all, the author proves economic rationality and financial rationality that the local government borrows money. Secondly, drawing lessons from Niskanen’s bureaucracy model, the thesis constructs the political economy model that the local government borrows money under the three assumed conditions which are " the debt budget of local government is maximized ", " local government official's utility is maximized " and " pay the debts under the pressure condition local government official's utility is maximized ". Specially, setting up the local government official's pressure factor of payment of debts, this thesis proves that the larger the local government’pressure of paying the debts, the less scale of borrowing money of scale and public product is liked to be offered. Thirdly, based on the analysis of information asymmetry during the china’s institutional transfer, the author considers that no good supervise to the local government may make them borrow money blindly. Based on the theory of public risk, the author builds up analytic structure about public and private risk. Through analysing to economics of public risk and private risk, it sets up sharing models optimumly of public risk and private risk. It figures out the optimal point under the private budget limitation and financial budget limitation. This point makes the public and private risk optimized. The author tries hard to synthesize foreign financial risk research experience and China’s situation.in order to builds up a scientific evaluation system. The author chooses static, dynamic and structure index synthetically and adopts the right law of entropy to evaluate local fiscal risk of chongqing in 2003.According to the result of empirical calculation, the author uses correlation analysis of Spearman and AMOS structure equation, then proves the logic relation among these three kinds of local financial risks of local public risk, the risk of the local financial revenue and expenditure and local government debt risk. On the basis of the experience to financial risk management of OECD countries, the author puts forward concrete measure for the budget accounting reform, so as to improve information quality of the governmental accounting, then sets up the debt risk’s
英文摘要limited mechanism of local government for the supervision from higer rank’s government to lower one. At last the author put forword the counter measure for improving the financial transparency to make government accept the surveillance by the masses.
引文
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