公共投资对结构转型的影响机制研究
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摘要
本文立足于我国经济转轨的宏观背景,在公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型三位一体的框架下,探索公共投资扩张与经济结构转型之间的内在关联机制。在综合评价我国经济结构失衡的现状、分析公共投资规模扩张对经济结构失衡影响的基础上,深入挖掘导致公共投资加剧结构失衡的体制性约束因素,并实证分析了体制性因素对公共投资推动结构转型的影响和制约,以此破解公共投资政策在保持经济稳定增长基础上促进结构转型的难题,探索有利于解除结构转型体制性阻滞、实现结构转型的体制改革路径。
本文选题的出发点在于本轮金融危机过后,公共投资规模的扩张对稳定经济增长,防止经济失速起到了举足轻重的作用,但与此同时,结构失衡问题却日益凸显。高投资与结构失衡加剧之间是否存在必然的联系?公共投资规模的扩张加快了短期内经济增长的速度,但高增长与高投资为何无法解决结构失衡问题?在我国经济转轨背景下,结构性失衡问题与转轨进程中新旧体制交替所产生的矛盾,以及体制改革不完善有直接的关联,而宏观调控政策未能解除结构失衡的体制性阻碍,体制性约束从而固化、强化了公共投资与结构失衡之间的矛盾。因此,对公共投资与结构转型关系的探索,需将其置于公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型的分析框架下,合理判断其关联机制以探索解决结构转型问题的现实路径。
公共投资与结构失衡关系的判断将直接影响到经济发展的可持续性及推动结构转型的政策导向。在公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型的框架下探讨公共投资与结构转型的关联机制,对推动经济结构转型,加快转变经济发展方式,确保宏观调控政策的实施效果具有重大的理论和现实意义,主要体现在：一是公共投资、经济增长、结构转型是影响我国转轨进程的重要变量,理清这三个变量之间的关系及制约其关系的体制性因素,有助于从根本上扫除制约结构转型的体制性障碍,缓解经济运行中的深层次矛盾,使转变经济发展方式有更为坚实的基础；二是公共投资政策是服务于不同发展理念和宏观调控目标的工具,破解公共投资与结构失衡之间的关系,有助于充分利用公共投资工具以突破经济结构转型的桎梏,使经济增长建立在结构优化的基础上,从而增强经济发展的长期动力和持续性；三是虽然已有学者开始逐步关注这一领域,并取得了一系列基础性研究成果,但仍缺乏关于公共投资、体制性约束与结构转型三个变量之间相互关系的系统性研究,而公共投资与结构转型之困、经济增长与结构转型之困却对理论提出了较为迫切的诉求。
基于1998年以来我国经济结构失衡现状以及为应对危机所采取的宏观调控政策及其效果,本文所研究的基本问题是：公共投资是否加剧结构失衡?公共投资规模扩张为何会加剧结构失衡?体制性约束是否制约了公共投资推动结构转型的实现?如何消除体制性约束以促进经济结构转型、优化?这也是本文的基本研究思路和核心内容,围绕这些问题,本文的主要研究内容为：
首先,从现象层面分析公共投资对经济结构失衡的影响。在综合评价经济结构失衡的基础上,分别探讨了公共投资对投资消费结构、产业结构、城乡结构的影响：一是通过构建包含政府债务的DSGE模型,实证分析了政府举债投资的融资模式对居民消费的影响,得出的结论是公共投资对消费的作用方向受政府债务初始财政水平的影响,在政府高负债率下,公共投资规模的扩张对经济的负面效应较大；二是对公共投资与产业结构关系的研究,具体分析了公共投资的产业波及效果与公共投资产业领域的结构趋同化现象,得出的结论是公共投资对第二产业的波及作用较大,且公共投资规模的扩张加重了我国各区域的产业结构趋同化现象；三是对公共投资与城乡结构失衡关系的研究,通过分析政府在交通、通讯、环保等基础设施建设领域的公共投资所存在的城乡差距现象,得出政府倾向城市的支出结构加重了城乡差距扩大的结论：四是对我国区域经济发展的差异进行了描述,并探索公共投资对区域差异的影响。
其次,深入挖掘了公共投资制约结构转型的体制性根源。在中国转轨经济背景下,体制性约束强化了公共投资与结构失衡之间的关系,且初始政策动机的层层放大对经济结构产生了更大的影响,固化、强化了公共投资与结构失衡关系的体制性根源。
本章将从以下方面入手：一是体制的结构性矛盾决定了经济运行中结构问题的普遍存在。目前我国正处于经济社会转型期,旧体制的弊端仍有残留,适应社会主义市场经济的新体制尚未健全,各种矛盾、摩擦凸显,导致经济增长速度和经济结构不衔接、不协调。我国渐进改革所形成的市场化程度不均衡和市场效率不均衡,使初步建立的市场机制出现运行不畅和低效率。二是财政体制改革的不完善,使得我国的转移支付制度存在较多的缺陷。转移支付的地区差异导致了地区差距的拉大。地方政府“重投资、轻服务”的财政支出结构造成地方公共支出结构的扭曲,并进一步扭曲经济结构；三是财政分权对地方政府加大公共投资力度的激励加剧了中国启动消费的难度,从而强化、固化了地方公共支出结构的扭曲；四是中国式特殊的分权体制也激发了地方政府“为增长而竞争”的热情,而地方政府间激烈的FDI竞争使得我国的产业结构偏斜因外商直接投资的产业结构分布的严重偏斜而加重,从而进一步扭曲经济结构。中国式分权及其架构的地方竞争塑造了重公共投资轻公共服务的政府支出偏好,这种偏好在促进经济增长的同时,也付出了一定的代价：城乡、地区间收入差距的持续扩大、投资消费比例的严重失衡。五是中央和地方之间财权与事权的不对称,地方财政收入无法满足公共投资的资金需求,迫使地方政府通过各种隐性的、不规范的借债融资渠道筹集资金,从而导致债务规模的膨胀和债务风险的增加。举债投资未能改变消费者预期,反而强化了消费的体制性约束,因而未能解决居民消费不足问题。
然后,在公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型框架下对公共投资、经济增长与经济结构转型的关系进行实证分析。由于公共投资体制性驱动力来源于地方政府对经济增长目标的追逐,因此,经济增长是考察公共投资与结构转型关系的一个重要联系纽带。本章构建了包含公共投资、经济增长、结构转型三个内生变量的联立方程,并控制财政分权、地方竞争、民生支出等体制性约束因素。
利用衡量经济结构转型水平的因子分析的因子总得分数据,从整体上考察经济结构转型与公共投资、经济增长的关系,并且分别考察产业结构、投资消费结构、内外部需求结构、城乡结构与公共投资、经济增长之间的关系。得出的结论是经济增长能够显著促进结构转型,公共投资对结构转型有显著地抑制作用,结构转型无法刺激短期内经济迅速增长。财政分权和地方竞争对公共投资与经济增长有显著的促进作用,却抑制结构转型的实现,而民生支出能够显著促进结构转型。因此,在体制性约束下,经济增长、公共投资、结构转型陷入了公共投资与结构转型之困、经济增长与结构转型之困。促进结构转型只能通过体制改革,解除制约结构转型的体制性因素。
最后,提出促进经济结构转型的政策涵义。要从根本上促进结构转型,必须深化改革,以引导、配合财政政策破除结构转型的体制性约束,保证公共投资对结构转型的正向影响,实现增长与结构转型的互推式的良性发展模式。在前文对公共投资、经济增长与结构转型的规范分析和实证分析的基础上,有针对性地探讨解除结构转型实现的体制性障碍,并努力探索保持公共投资对结构转型正向影响的政策着力点,提出在维持经济稳定增长的同时,有利于促进结构转型的公共投资政策建议,助推我国经济的持续发展。
The strategic adjustment of economic structure is the main direction to accelerate the transformation of economic development. While maintaining steady economic growth, how to use public investment to accelerate economic structural transition is becoming an important issue currently for China's economic development. The positive financial policy was always carried out with the unbalanced economic structure in China's history. It is easily to make the judgment of "from one to the other", that is the large-scale public investment construction maintaining swift economic growth, and also intensifying economic structure to be unbalanced, threatening the sustainable economic growth. The judgment of the relationship between public investment and economic structural transition will directly affect the sustainability of economic growth and the diretion to promote structure restructuring. Therefor, it is necessary to verify this judgment to make, and tap the structural imbalance of the real source, and then explore a reform path to maintain stable economic growth and public investment policies to promote the restructuring.
Based on the practical experience of China's proactive fiscal policy since1998, by analysing two exactly opposite phenomenon between public investment expansion and economic structural imbalance, this article is going to study these questions:the public investment is conducive to economic restructuring, or curing and strengthening the original unreasonable economic structure? Structural imbalance is the inevitable of the market process or the necessity of the transition process? What are the institutional constraints of public investment and restructuring? Controlling variables of institutional constraints, does public investment have the necessary link between economic growth and structural transformation? How to further deepen structural reforms to promote economic restructuring and optimization? This is also the core of this study. Around these issues, based on the macro background of China's institutional transition, this article evaluated the status quo of public investment and economic structural imbalance under the framework of public investment-institutional constraints-economic structural restructuring, to explore the impact and constraints of Chinese-style institutional factors on economic growth, public investment and the restructuring based on the empirical analysis of economic growth, public investment and the restructuring mechanism, and then to promote the policy recommendations by the policy simulation.
The conclusion of the normative analysis and experience analysis is that under the institutional constraints, public investment curing the economic structural imbalances, but public investment is the main driving force to stimulate economic growth and economic growth promotes structural transformation. Under the current system, economic restructuring problems face the storm of the public investment and the restructuring, the storm of economic growth and structural transformation. But simply to control the scale of public investment and economic growth rate is difficult to promote the restructuring, unless by further deepen structural reforms to lift the constraints of the structural transformation of the institutional factors with the fiscal policy. The specific content is:
Firstly, from the phenomenon level the article analyzes of the impact of public investment on economic structural imbalances. Respectively, to explore the effect of public investment on the investment and consumption structure, industrial structure, urban and rural structure on the basis of in-depth analysis of the status quo of investment and consumption structure, industrial structure, urban and rural structure. By constructing the DSGE model with government debt, the empirical analysis of government borrowing is done to analyze the impact of investment financing mode) to the consumer, concluded that the direction of public investment's impact on consumer is affected by the initial financial of high debt. In the government's high debt rate, the negative effects of the expansion scale of public investment on the economy is relatively large; the study of relations between public investment and industrial structure, detailed analysis of the industry spill-over effects of public investment and the structure convergence phenomenon in the field of public investment'industry, come to the conclusion that expansion of the scale of public investment has the ripple effect of the secondary industry and public investment increased regional phenomenon of the convergence of industrial structure; the reseach of public investment's effect on urban and rural structure is by analyzing the urban-rural disparities in terms of infrastructure investment in the field of the government's investment in the transportation, communication, environmental protection, etc. The conclusion is that the government expenditure structure of the tendency of the city's increased expansion of the urban-rural gap.
Secondly, dig the constraints of the institutional roots of the relationship between public investment and structural imbalances. In the transition economy background, the institutional constraints strengthen the relationship between public investment and structural imbalances, and the initial policy motives are enlarged which had a greater impact on the economic structure and strengthened the institutional roots of public investment and the structural imbalance.
This chapter has the following aspects:First, the structural contradictions of the system determine the prevalence of structural problems in economic operation. At present, China is in the drawbacks of economic and social transformation, the old system is still residual, the new system of adapting to socialist market economy is not fully developed, and various conflicts, highlighting the friction, resulting in economic growth and economic structure does not converge and uncoordinated. Gradual reform of the degree of market equilibrium and market efficiency is not balanced, so that the initial establishment of the market mechanism runs sluggish and inefficient. Secondly, financial reform is imperfect, making the transfer payment system in China have more defects. Regional differences in transfer payments have led to a widening of regional disparities. Local government's "investment heavy and light service" structure of fiscal expenditure caused by the distortions of local public expenditure structure has further distorted the economic structure; Thirdly, the incentives of local governments' increasing public investment caused by fiscal decentralization exacerbate the difficulty of the Chinese start spending, thereby strengthening and curing the distortion of the local public expenditure structure; Fourthly, special decentralization in China has stimulated growth competition enthusiasm of local governments, FDI competition, between local governments makes China's industrial structure skewed aggravated due to the highly skewed distribution of the industrial structure of foreign direct investment, thus further distorting the economic structure. Chinese-style decentralization and its local competition framework shaped government spending preferences of the heavy public investment in light of public services, this preference promoted economic growth, also paid a certain price:the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to expand, serious imbalance in the proportion of investment and consumption. Fifth, the asymmetry of the financial authority and powers between central and local makes local revenues can not meet the funding needs of public investment, forcing local governments to raise funds through a variety of hidden, non-standard debt financing channels, resulting in the expansion of the scale of debt and an increased risk of debt. Debt investment failed to change consumer expectations, but to strengthen the institutional constraints of the consumer, and thus failed to resolve the lack of consumer issues.
Thirdly, in the framework of public investment-institutional constraints-economic restructuring, empirical analysis is done to analyze the relationship between public investment and economic restructuring. Public investment in the institutional driving force comes from the local government on the economic growth target to chase, so that economic growth is an important a link to examine the relationship between public investment and the restructuring. This chapter constructs a simultaneous equation contained three endogenous variables of public investment, economic growth and the restructuring, controlling several institutional constraints of fiscal decentralization, and the local competition, people's livelihood and spending.
The data of measuring the level of coordination of economic structure uses the total score data of factor analysis to measure the quantification of the economic restructuring. This chapter is to examine the relationship between economic restructuring, public investment and economic growth, and investigated industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, internal and external demandthe relationship between the structure of urban and rural structure and public investment, economic growth. Concluded that economic growth can significantly promote the restructuring, and public investment have a significant inhibitory effect on restructuring, but restructuring can not stimulate rapid economic growth in the short term. Fiscal decentralization and local competition is a significant role in promoting public investment and economic growth, but inhibiting the implementation of the restructuring, the people's livelihood expenditures can significantly promote the structural transformation. Thus, under the institutional constraints, the economic growth, public investment and restructuring are put into the storm of public investment and the restructuring, and the storm of economic growth and structural transformation. Institutional reform is the only way to promote structural transformation by lifting of constraints restructuring institutional factors.
Finally, the policy implications were put froward on economic restructuring. To promote the restructuring, we must deepen the reform to guide with fiscal policy to get rid of the restructuring of the institutional constraints to ensure the positive impact of public investment in restructuring, and to push the sound development of model between growth and structural transformation. On the basis of the normative and empirical analysis of public investment, economic growth and structural transformation, targeted to investigate the lifting of restructuring to achieve the institutional obstacles, and efforts to explore the positive impact on the policy maintain public investment in the restructuring efforts point, while maintaining steady economic growth, help to promote the restructuring of public investment policy recommendations to boost China's economic sustainable development.
本文选题的出发点在于本轮金融危机过后,公共投资规模的扩张对稳定经济增长,防止经济失速起到了举足轻重的作用,但与此同时,结构失衡问题却日益凸显。高投资与结构失衡加剧之间是否存在必然的联系?公共投资规模的扩张加快了短期内经济增长的速度,但高增长与高投资为何无法解决结构失衡问题?在我国经济转轨背景下,结构性失衡问题与转轨进程中新旧体制交替所产生的矛盾,以及体制改革不完善有直接的关联,而宏观调控政策未能解除结构失衡的体制性阻碍,体制性约束从而固化、强化了公共投资与结构失衡之间的矛盾。因此,对公共投资与结构转型关系的探索,需将其置于公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型的分析框架下,合理判断其关联机制以探索解决结构转型问题的现实路径。
公共投资与结构失衡关系的判断将直接影响到经济发展的可持续性及推动结构转型的政策导向。在公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型的框架下探讨公共投资与结构转型的关联机制,对推动经济结构转型,加快转变经济发展方式,确保宏观调控政策的实施效果具有重大的理论和现实意义,主要体现在：一是公共投资、经济增长、结构转型是影响我国转轨进程的重要变量,理清这三个变量之间的关系及制约其关系的体制性因素,有助于从根本上扫除制约结构转型的体制性障碍,缓解经济运行中的深层次矛盾,使转变经济发展方式有更为坚实的基础；二是公共投资政策是服务于不同发展理念和宏观调控目标的工具,破解公共投资与结构失衡之间的关系,有助于充分利用公共投资工具以突破经济结构转型的桎梏,使经济增长建立在结构优化的基础上,从而增强经济发展的长期动力和持续性；三是虽然已有学者开始逐步关注这一领域,并取得了一系列基础性研究成果,但仍缺乏关于公共投资、体制性约束与结构转型三个变量之间相互关系的系统性研究,而公共投资与结构转型之困、经济增长与结构转型之困却对理论提出了较为迫切的诉求。
基于1998年以来我国经济结构失衡现状以及为应对危机所采取的宏观调控政策及其效果,本文所研究的基本问题是：公共投资是否加剧结构失衡?公共投资规模扩张为何会加剧结构失衡?体制性约束是否制约了公共投资推动结构转型的实现?如何消除体制性约束以促进经济结构转型、优化?这也是本文的基本研究思路和核心内容,围绕这些问题,本文的主要研究内容为：
首先,从现象层面分析公共投资对经济结构失衡的影响。在综合评价经济结构失衡的基础上,分别探讨了公共投资对投资消费结构、产业结构、城乡结构的影响：一是通过构建包含政府债务的DSGE模型,实证分析了政府举债投资的融资模式对居民消费的影响,得出的结论是公共投资对消费的作用方向受政府债务初始财政水平的影响,在政府高负债率下,公共投资规模的扩张对经济的负面效应较大；二是对公共投资与产业结构关系的研究,具体分析了公共投资的产业波及效果与公共投资产业领域的结构趋同化现象,得出的结论是公共投资对第二产业的波及作用较大,且公共投资规模的扩张加重了我国各区域的产业结构趋同化现象；三是对公共投资与城乡结构失衡关系的研究,通过分析政府在交通、通讯、环保等基础设施建设领域的公共投资所存在的城乡差距现象,得出政府倾向城市的支出结构加重了城乡差距扩大的结论：四是对我国区域经济发展的差异进行了描述,并探索公共投资对区域差异的影响。
其次,深入挖掘了公共投资制约结构转型的体制性根源。在中国转轨经济背景下,体制性约束强化了公共投资与结构失衡之间的关系,且初始政策动机的层层放大对经济结构产生了更大的影响,固化、强化了公共投资与结构失衡关系的体制性根源。
本章将从以下方面入手：一是体制的结构性矛盾决定了经济运行中结构问题的普遍存在。目前我国正处于经济社会转型期,旧体制的弊端仍有残留,适应社会主义市场经济的新体制尚未健全,各种矛盾、摩擦凸显,导致经济增长速度和经济结构不衔接、不协调。我国渐进改革所形成的市场化程度不均衡和市场效率不均衡,使初步建立的市场机制出现运行不畅和低效率。二是财政体制改革的不完善,使得我国的转移支付制度存在较多的缺陷。转移支付的地区差异导致了地区差距的拉大。地方政府“重投资、轻服务”的财政支出结构造成地方公共支出结构的扭曲,并进一步扭曲经济结构；三是财政分权对地方政府加大公共投资力度的激励加剧了中国启动消费的难度,从而强化、固化了地方公共支出结构的扭曲；四是中国式特殊的分权体制也激发了地方政府“为增长而竞争”的热情,而地方政府间激烈的FDI竞争使得我国的产业结构偏斜因外商直接投资的产业结构分布的严重偏斜而加重,从而进一步扭曲经济结构。中国式分权及其架构的地方竞争塑造了重公共投资轻公共服务的政府支出偏好,这种偏好在促进经济增长的同时,也付出了一定的代价：城乡、地区间收入差距的持续扩大、投资消费比例的严重失衡。五是中央和地方之间财权与事权的不对称,地方财政收入无法满足公共投资的资金需求,迫使地方政府通过各种隐性的、不规范的借债融资渠道筹集资金,从而导致债务规模的膨胀和债务风险的增加。举债投资未能改变消费者预期,反而强化了消费的体制性约束,因而未能解决居民消费不足问题。
然后,在公共投资——体制性约束——经济结构转型框架下对公共投资、经济增长与经济结构转型的关系进行实证分析。由于公共投资体制性驱动力来源于地方政府对经济增长目标的追逐,因此,经济增长是考察公共投资与结构转型关系的一个重要联系纽带。本章构建了包含公共投资、经济增长、结构转型三个内生变量的联立方程,并控制财政分权、地方竞争、民生支出等体制性约束因素。
利用衡量经济结构转型水平的因子分析的因子总得分数据,从整体上考察经济结构转型与公共投资、经济增长的关系,并且分别考察产业结构、投资消费结构、内外部需求结构、城乡结构与公共投资、经济增长之间的关系。得出的结论是经济增长能够显著促进结构转型,公共投资对结构转型有显著地抑制作用,结构转型无法刺激短期内经济迅速增长。财政分权和地方竞争对公共投资与经济增长有显著的促进作用,却抑制结构转型的实现,而民生支出能够显著促进结构转型。因此,在体制性约束下,经济增长、公共投资、结构转型陷入了公共投资与结构转型之困、经济增长与结构转型之困。促进结构转型只能通过体制改革,解除制约结构转型的体制性因素。
最后,提出促进经济结构转型的政策涵义。要从根本上促进结构转型,必须深化改革,以引导、配合财政政策破除结构转型的体制性约束,保证公共投资对结构转型的正向影响,实现增长与结构转型的互推式的良性发展模式。在前文对公共投资、经济增长与结构转型的规范分析和实证分析的基础上,有针对性地探讨解除结构转型实现的体制性障碍,并努力探索保持公共投资对结构转型正向影响的政策着力点,提出在维持经济稳定增长的同时,有利于促进结构转型的公共投资政策建议,助推我国经济的持续发展。
The strategic adjustment of economic structure is the main direction to accelerate the transformation of economic development. While maintaining steady economic growth, how to use public investment to accelerate economic structural transition is becoming an important issue currently for China's economic development. The positive financial policy was always carried out with the unbalanced economic structure in China's history. It is easily to make the judgment of "from one to the other", that is the large-scale public investment construction maintaining swift economic growth, and also intensifying economic structure to be unbalanced, threatening the sustainable economic growth. The judgment of the relationship between public investment and economic structural transition will directly affect the sustainability of economic growth and the diretion to promote structure restructuring. Therefor, it is necessary to verify this judgment to make, and tap the structural imbalance of the real source, and then explore a reform path to maintain stable economic growth and public investment policies to promote the restructuring.
Based on the practical experience of China's proactive fiscal policy since1998, by analysing two exactly opposite phenomenon between public investment expansion and economic structural imbalance, this article is going to study these questions:the public investment is conducive to economic restructuring, or curing and strengthening the original unreasonable economic structure? Structural imbalance is the inevitable of the market process or the necessity of the transition process? What are the institutional constraints of public investment and restructuring? Controlling variables of institutional constraints, does public investment have the necessary link between economic growth and structural transformation? How to further deepen structural reforms to promote economic restructuring and optimization? This is also the core of this study. Around these issues, based on the macro background of China's institutional transition, this article evaluated the status quo of public investment and economic structural imbalance under the framework of public investment-institutional constraints-economic structural restructuring, to explore the impact and constraints of Chinese-style institutional factors on economic growth, public investment and the restructuring based on the empirical analysis of economic growth, public investment and the restructuring mechanism, and then to promote the policy recommendations by the policy simulation.
The conclusion of the normative analysis and experience analysis is that under the institutional constraints, public investment curing the economic structural imbalances, but public investment is the main driving force to stimulate economic growth and economic growth promotes structural transformation. Under the current system, economic restructuring problems face the storm of the public investment and the restructuring, the storm of economic growth and structural transformation. But simply to control the scale of public investment and economic growth rate is difficult to promote the restructuring, unless by further deepen structural reforms to lift the constraints of the structural transformation of the institutional factors with the fiscal policy. The specific content is:
Firstly, from the phenomenon level the article analyzes of the impact of public investment on economic structural imbalances. Respectively, to explore the effect of public investment on the investment and consumption structure, industrial structure, urban and rural structure on the basis of in-depth analysis of the status quo of investment and consumption structure, industrial structure, urban and rural structure. By constructing the DSGE model with government debt, the empirical analysis of government borrowing is done to analyze the impact of investment financing mode) to the consumer, concluded that the direction of public investment's impact on consumer is affected by the initial financial of high debt. In the government's high debt rate, the negative effects of the expansion scale of public investment on the economy is relatively large; the study of relations between public investment and industrial structure, detailed analysis of the industry spill-over effects of public investment and the structure convergence phenomenon in the field of public investment'industry, come to the conclusion that expansion of the scale of public investment has the ripple effect of the secondary industry and public investment increased regional phenomenon of the convergence of industrial structure; the reseach of public investment's effect on urban and rural structure is by analyzing the urban-rural disparities in terms of infrastructure investment in the field of the government's investment in the transportation, communication, environmental protection, etc. The conclusion is that the government expenditure structure of the tendency of the city's increased expansion of the urban-rural gap.
Secondly, dig the constraints of the institutional roots of the relationship between public investment and structural imbalances. In the transition economy background, the institutional constraints strengthen the relationship between public investment and structural imbalances, and the initial policy motives are enlarged which had a greater impact on the economic structure and strengthened the institutional roots of public investment and the structural imbalance.
This chapter has the following aspects:First, the structural contradictions of the system determine the prevalence of structural problems in economic operation. At present, China is in the drawbacks of economic and social transformation, the old system is still residual, the new system of adapting to socialist market economy is not fully developed, and various conflicts, highlighting the friction, resulting in economic growth and economic structure does not converge and uncoordinated. Gradual reform of the degree of market equilibrium and market efficiency is not balanced, so that the initial establishment of the market mechanism runs sluggish and inefficient. Secondly, financial reform is imperfect, making the transfer payment system in China have more defects. Regional differences in transfer payments have led to a widening of regional disparities. Local government's "investment heavy and light service" structure of fiscal expenditure caused by the distortions of local public expenditure structure has further distorted the economic structure; Thirdly, the incentives of local governments' increasing public investment caused by fiscal decentralization exacerbate the difficulty of the Chinese start spending, thereby strengthening and curing the distortion of the local public expenditure structure; Fourthly, special decentralization in China has stimulated growth competition enthusiasm of local governments, FDI competition, between local governments makes China's industrial structure skewed aggravated due to the highly skewed distribution of the industrial structure of foreign direct investment, thus further distorting the economic structure. Chinese-style decentralization and its local competition framework shaped government spending preferences of the heavy public investment in light of public services, this preference promoted economic growth, also paid a certain price:the income gap between urban and rural areas continues to expand, serious imbalance in the proportion of investment and consumption. Fifth, the asymmetry of the financial authority and powers between central and local makes local revenues can not meet the funding needs of public investment, forcing local governments to raise funds through a variety of hidden, non-standard debt financing channels, resulting in the expansion of the scale of debt and an increased risk of debt. Debt investment failed to change consumer expectations, but to strengthen the institutional constraints of the consumer, and thus failed to resolve the lack of consumer issues.
Thirdly, in the framework of public investment-institutional constraints-economic restructuring, empirical analysis is done to analyze the relationship between public investment and economic restructuring. Public investment in the institutional driving force comes from the local government on the economic growth target to chase, so that economic growth is an important a link to examine the relationship between public investment and the restructuring. This chapter constructs a simultaneous equation contained three endogenous variables of public investment, economic growth and the restructuring, controlling several institutional constraints of fiscal decentralization, and the local competition, people's livelihood and spending.
The data of measuring the level of coordination of economic structure uses the total score data of factor analysis to measure the quantification of the economic restructuring. This chapter is to examine the relationship between economic restructuring, public investment and economic growth, and investigated industrial structure, investment and consumption structure, internal and external demandthe relationship between the structure of urban and rural structure and public investment, economic growth. Concluded that economic growth can significantly promote the restructuring, and public investment have a significant inhibitory effect on restructuring, but restructuring can not stimulate rapid economic growth in the short term. Fiscal decentralization and local competition is a significant role in promoting public investment and economic growth, but inhibiting the implementation of the restructuring, the people's livelihood expenditures can significantly promote the structural transformation. Thus, under the institutional constraints, the economic growth, public investment and restructuring are put into the storm of public investment and the restructuring, and the storm of economic growth and structural transformation. Institutional reform is the only way to promote structural transformation by lifting of constraints restructuring institutional factors.
Finally, the policy implications were put froward on economic restructuring. To promote the restructuring, we must deepen the reform to guide with fiscal policy to get rid of the restructuring of the institutional constraints to ensure the positive impact of public investment in restructuring, and to push the sound development of model between growth and structural transformation. On the basis of the normative and empirical analysis of public investment, economic growth and structural transformation, targeted to investigate the lifting of restructuring to achieve the institutional obstacles, and efforts to explore the positive impact on the policy maintain public investment in the restructuring efforts point, while maintaining steady economic growth, help to promote the restructuring of public investment policy recommendations to boost China's economic sustainable development.
引文
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