持续贸易顺差背景下的中国货币政策选择
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摘要
1994年以来,我国出现持续的贸易顺差,尤其是近几年来,贸易顺差以年均47%的速度增长。巨额贸易顺差导致我国累积了大量的外汇储备,以及由此带来的流动性过剩。在这一背景下,我国的货币政策遇到了前所未有的挑战,深入分析我国货币政策当前面临的各种困境,探讨我国货币政策的选择,具有重要意义。
本文的写作思路基本遵循了“提出问题——文献综述——理论分析——实证检验——政策建议”的学术规范。全文共分为七章。前三章提出问题、概括文献并分析我国货币政策的实施现状,为全文的展开做好理论和现实的准备。后四章为分析重点,基于对持续贸易顺差下的货币政策独立性和有效性受到较大约束的分析结论,探讨在现有货币政策框架下,透过汇率调整和利率调整解决问题的可能性。最后提出政策建议和配套措施。
全文的各部分要点如下:
绪论部分对本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究方法、研究思路等内容给予了介绍,并指出了本文的创新点与不足之处。
第一章是国内外文献综述。文献综述分为两个部分,一是贸易收支理论的文献综述,主要包括贸易收支失衡的成因、可持续性及其调整措施;二是我国货币政策研究的文献综述,回顾了主要学派有关货币政策及其有效性和独立性的主要理论和观点,并对国内有关货币政策独立性及有效性的研究现状进行了文献综述。
第二章对我国货币政策的实施状况进行了分析。把握我国目前现行的货币政策,有助于分析当前面临的困境与政策选择。本章从货币政策的最终目标、中介目标、操作目标和货币政策工具,以及汇率制度、资本账户政策等开放条件下的货币政策要素角度进行了论述。
第三章从理论和实证两个层面对持续贸易顺差背景下我国货币政策的独立性进行分析。不可能三角原理表明,在货币政策独立性、固定汇率、资本自由流动这三个目标之间,一个经济体最多只能实现其中两项。事实上,我国现行汇率制度仍接近固定汇率范畴,因此资本是否自由流动成为货币政策独立性强弱的决定因素之一。尽管在制度层面上,我国还存在着较为严格的资本管制,但实际上资本的跨境流动规模相当大,足以影响我国的货币政策独立性。当前,我国货币政策独立性削弱的具体表现是被动的外汇冲销干预,近年来冲销操作幅度非常大。进一步分析,外汇冲销干预的根本原因是持续的贸易顺差。
第四章分析在持续贸易顺差背景下我国货币政策的有效性。从货币政策有效性的定义出发,根据我国货币政策的最终目标,我们从稳定汇率和抑制通胀这两个角度进行分析。就稳定汇率而言,我国的外汇冲销干预已不可持续,原因是干预措施本身的制约以及冲销干预的成本高昂。就抑制通胀来说,治理通货膨胀的各项措施也受到不同程度的制约。因此,给定当前国际收支失衡以及现行的货币体制(主要是汇率体制),央行政策工具受到较大的约束,难以实现既定的货币政策目标。
上两章的分析表明,当前货币政策面临的上述困境有两个根本原因,一是我国的国际收支失衡(主要是贸易收支失衡);二是现行的货币体制缺乏应有的弹性(主要是汇率体制)。
第五章分别从汇率和利率调整两个角度来探讨在货币政策框架内调整国际收支失衡的可能性。首先,对于人民币汇率调整能否显著影响贸易收支,本章考察了出口结构、国际经验、计量分析三个视角。最后通过一个SVAR模型分析了汇率变动对贸易的动态影响,脉冲响应与方差分析都表明,我国贸易余额的波动主要受实际冲击的影响,汇率变动对贸易余额的影响较小。其次,对于利率的调整能否显著影响我国的贸易收支,本章主要根据货币政策传导机制理论,通过利率平价以及格兰杰因果检验来分析。利率平价分析结果是,利差的变动不能显著影响双边汇率,也就不可能显著影响贸易收支。而格兰杰因果检验也显示,利率不能显著影响汇率,汇率也不能显著影响贸易收支。因此,仅通过汇率与利率的调整并不能显著改变我国目前的贸易顺差状况。
第六章是政策建议,提出了在持续贸易顺差背景下我国的货币政策在近期和远期的选择。在近期,应该实施加大汇率弹性的汇率政策、相机抉择的利率政策、以及严格管制的资本账户政策,以期在一定程度上缓和当前我国货币政策面临的各种困境。其中,汇率政策最为关键,而资本账户管制政策是配套措施,其实施效果严重影响汇率政策、利率政策的实施效果。在远期,本章提出了浮动汇率制、利率市场化、资本账户自由化的政策选择。浮动汇率与资本账户自由化是解决货币政策独立性的根本方法,而利率市场化是有效货币政策的前提。除了货币政策以外,为应对持续贸易顺差状况,我们提出了三个配套措施:推进社会保障体制改革、加快推动要素市场改革以及加强环保等措施,促进经济的均衡与内涵式发展。
Global economic imbalance, the key characteristic of the current global macro economy, is featured by the substantive deficit of US current account and the huge amount of surplus of Asian emerging countries represented by China. Especially in recent years, the continuous Twin Surplus in China has brought it into sharp focus of global imbalance. In this context, however, China’s monetary policies are facing unprecedented challenges. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyze the all aspects of difficulties that China’s monetary policies are facing and to discuss the probable choices of monetary polices.
The thesis follows the writing model of problem raising, literature review, theoretical analysis, empirical testing and finally policy proposal. In the first half of the thesis, the problem is put forward, and relevant literatures are summarized, followed by a preparatory analysis of China’s monetary policies. After that, we come to the key parts of the paper, where the independency and efficiency of the monetarey policy when facing the lasting trade surplus are fully discussed and finally we raised some of the probable ways to solve the problem. The paper is composed of seven chapters with the key points of each chapter as following:
Chapter one gives an introduction on the research background, methodology and the approaches followed in this thesis.
Focusing on both foreign and domestic literature review, chapter 2 is composed of two parts. Part one is about the theories of current account imbalance, including the cause of formation of current account imbalance, its sustainability and the adjustment method. Part two will focus on the research of monetary policies. Although there are an overwhelming number of books and papers involved this topic, in China, most of the research in this field is limited within empirical testing and is mainly concentrated in testing the efficiency of monetary policies.
In chapter3, the thesis gives an introduction and preparatory analysis on the current situation of China’s monetary policies, which is helpful to the further analysis on the dilemma China’s central bank is facing. Generally, the monetary policies include four key factors: the end-alls, the intermediate targets, objects and instruments, but in an open economy, exchange rate policy and policies on the capital account are of the same importance as the previous ones.
It is obvious that the disequilibrium of Balance of Payment has forced RMB to appreciate, while it still needs further examine to evaluate its impacts on both independency and efficiency of monetary policies. Therefore, the challenge from Balance of Current Account Disequilibrium that China’s monetary policy confronts should be thoroughly analyzed in the following two chapters.
As for the independency, which is the main topic for Chapter 4, the thesis reaches to a conclusion that the monetary policy is more passive compared with before and its independency is largely injured.
As for the efficiency, the research should be conducted from two different angles. On one hand, because of the high costs and other reasons, the sterilization of the monetary impacts is not sustainable. On the other hand, the disequilibrium restricts the use of anti-inflation measures. To conclude, given the global economic imbalance and the current situation of China’s monetary system (including the exchange rate system), the instruments available for central bank are highly limited and the expected targets of monetary policies are hard to be achieved.
To summarize, the research tells that both independency and efficiency are weaken are mainly because of two reasons: the disequilibrium of balance of payment and the lack of elasticity of current monetary system (the exchange rate system mainly) .
Chapter 6 focuses on the probability of adjusting the disequilibrium in the frame of monetary policies. Whether the adjustment of RMB and China’s domestic interest rate can obviously improve the disequilibrium is fully discussed from the aspects of the exports structure, international experience and statistical analysis. In China, more than half of the total exports are improvement trade, which is insensitive to changes in exchange rates. At present, China is experiencing a high economic growth, continuous trade surplus and potential RMB appreciation, which is quite similar to Germany in 70’s and Japan in 80’s in the last century. However, the experience of Germany and Japan showed that appreciation do not necessarily lead to the improvement in trade imbalance. Finally, a SVAR model is proposed to analyze how exchange rate will dynamically influence the trade surplus. To draw a conclusion, it is difficult to improve the balance of payment by exchange rate adjustments alone.
In Chapter 7, the thesis raises both long term and short term choices of domestic monetary policies to solve the problems on above. Exchange rate policies, interest rate adjustment and restrict capital control are needed in the short term to ease the difficulties at present. In the long run, China should pursue a floating exchange rate system, a more market-oriented interest rate and an open capital account. Floating exchange rate and open capital accounts are very essential to improve the independency of monetary policy, while a market-oriented interest rate is the condition for a more effective monetary policy. Besides, the thesis also proposes three supporting measures: to set up a more efficient social welfare system, to reform the resources market and to encourage the environmental protection.
本文的写作思路基本遵循了“提出问题——文献综述——理论分析——实证检验——政策建议”的学术规范。全文共分为七章。前三章提出问题、概括文献并分析我国货币政策的实施现状,为全文的展开做好理论和现实的准备。后四章为分析重点,基于对持续贸易顺差下的货币政策独立性和有效性受到较大约束的分析结论,探讨在现有货币政策框架下,透过汇率调整和利率调整解决问题的可能性。最后提出政策建议和配套措施。
全文的各部分要点如下:
绪论部分对本文的研究背景、研究意义、研究方法、研究思路等内容给予了介绍,并指出了本文的创新点与不足之处。
第一章是国内外文献综述。文献综述分为两个部分,一是贸易收支理论的文献综述,主要包括贸易收支失衡的成因、可持续性及其调整措施;二是我国货币政策研究的文献综述,回顾了主要学派有关货币政策及其有效性和独立性的主要理论和观点,并对国内有关货币政策独立性及有效性的研究现状进行了文献综述。
第二章对我国货币政策的实施状况进行了分析。把握我国目前现行的货币政策,有助于分析当前面临的困境与政策选择。本章从货币政策的最终目标、中介目标、操作目标和货币政策工具,以及汇率制度、资本账户政策等开放条件下的货币政策要素角度进行了论述。
第三章从理论和实证两个层面对持续贸易顺差背景下我国货币政策的独立性进行分析。不可能三角原理表明,在货币政策独立性、固定汇率、资本自由流动这三个目标之间,一个经济体最多只能实现其中两项。事实上,我国现行汇率制度仍接近固定汇率范畴,因此资本是否自由流动成为货币政策独立性强弱的决定因素之一。尽管在制度层面上,我国还存在着较为严格的资本管制,但实际上资本的跨境流动规模相当大,足以影响我国的货币政策独立性。当前,我国货币政策独立性削弱的具体表现是被动的外汇冲销干预,近年来冲销操作幅度非常大。进一步分析,外汇冲销干预的根本原因是持续的贸易顺差。
第四章分析在持续贸易顺差背景下我国货币政策的有效性。从货币政策有效性的定义出发,根据我国货币政策的最终目标,我们从稳定汇率和抑制通胀这两个角度进行分析。就稳定汇率而言,我国的外汇冲销干预已不可持续,原因是干预措施本身的制约以及冲销干预的成本高昂。就抑制通胀来说,治理通货膨胀的各项措施也受到不同程度的制约。因此,给定当前国际收支失衡以及现行的货币体制(主要是汇率体制),央行政策工具受到较大的约束,难以实现既定的货币政策目标。
上两章的分析表明,当前货币政策面临的上述困境有两个根本原因,一是我国的国际收支失衡(主要是贸易收支失衡);二是现行的货币体制缺乏应有的弹性(主要是汇率体制)。
第五章分别从汇率和利率调整两个角度来探讨在货币政策框架内调整国际收支失衡的可能性。首先,对于人民币汇率调整能否显著影响贸易收支,本章考察了出口结构、国际经验、计量分析三个视角。最后通过一个SVAR模型分析了汇率变动对贸易的动态影响,脉冲响应与方差分析都表明,我国贸易余额的波动主要受实际冲击的影响,汇率变动对贸易余额的影响较小。其次,对于利率的调整能否显著影响我国的贸易收支,本章主要根据货币政策传导机制理论,通过利率平价以及格兰杰因果检验来分析。利率平价分析结果是,利差的变动不能显著影响双边汇率,也就不可能显著影响贸易收支。而格兰杰因果检验也显示,利率不能显著影响汇率,汇率也不能显著影响贸易收支。因此,仅通过汇率与利率的调整并不能显著改变我国目前的贸易顺差状况。
第六章是政策建议,提出了在持续贸易顺差背景下我国的货币政策在近期和远期的选择。在近期,应该实施加大汇率弹性的汇率政策、相机抉择的利率政策、以及严格管制的资本账户政策,以期在一定程度上缓和当前我国货币政策面临的各种困境。其中,汇率政策最为关键,而资本账户管制政策是配套措施,其实施效果严重影响汇率政策、利率政策的实施效果。在远期,本章提出了浮动汇率制、利率市场化、资本账户自由化的政策选择。浮动汇率与资本账户自由化是解决货币政策独立性的根本方法,而利率市场化是有效货币政策的前提。除了货币政策以外,为应对持续贸易顺差状况,我们提出了三个配套措施:推进社会保障体制改革、加快推动要素市场改革以及加强环保等措施,促进经济的均衡与内涵式发展。
Global economic imbalance, the key characteristic of the current global macro economy, is featured by the substantive deficit of US current account and the huge amount of surplus of Asian emerging countries represented by China. Especially in recent years, the continuous Twin Surplus in China has brought it into sharp focus of global imbalance. In this context, however, China’s monetary policies are facing unprecedented challenges. Therefore, it is of great importance to analyze the all aspects of difficulties that China’s monetary policies are facing and to discuss the probable choices of monetary polices.
The thesis follows the writing model of problem raising, literature review, theoretical analysis, empirical testing and finally policy proposal. In the first half of the thesis, the problem is put forward, and relevant literatures are summarized, followed by a preparatory analysis of China’s monetary policies. After that, we come to the key parts of the paper, where the independency and efficiency of the monetarey policy when facing the lasting trade surplus are fully discussed and finally we raised some of the probable ways to solve the problem. The paper is composed of seven chapters with the key points of each chapter as following:
Chapter one gives an introduction on the research background, methodology and the approaches followed in this thesis.
Focusing on both foreign and domestic literature review, chapter 2 is composed of two parts. Part one is about the theories of current account imbalance, including the cause of formation of current account imbalance, its sustainability and the adjustment method. Part two will focus on the research of monetary policies. Although there are an overwhelming number of books and papers involved this topic, in China, most of the research in this field is limited within empirical testing and is mainly concentrated in testing the efficiency of monetary policies.
In chapter3, the thesis gives an introduction and preparatory analysis on the current situation of China’s monetary policies, which is helpful to the further analysis on the dilemma China’s central bank is facing. Generally, the monetary policies include four key factors: the end-alls, the intermediate targets, objects and instruments, but in an open economy, exchange rate policy and policies on the capital account are of the same importance as the previous ones.
It is obvious that the disequilibrium of Balance of Payment has forced RMB to appreciate, while it still needs further examine to evaluate its impacts on both independency and efficiency of monetary policies. Therefore, the challenge from Balance of Current Account Disequilibrium that China’s monetary policy confronts should be thoroughly analyzed in the following two chapters.
As for the independency, which is the main topic for Chapter 4, the thesis reaches to a conclusion that the monetary policy is more passive compared with before and its independency is largely injured.
As for the efficiency, the research should be conducted from two different angles. On one hand, because of the high costs and other reasons, the sterilization of the monetary impacts is not sustainable. On the other hand, the disequilibrium restricts the use of anti-inflation measures. To conclude, given the global economic imbalance and the current situation of China’s monetary system (including the exchange rate system), the instruments available for central bank are highly limited and the expected targets of monetary policies are hard to be achieved.
To summarize, the research tells that both independency and efficiency are weaken are mainly because of two reasons: the disequilibrium of balance of payment and the lack of elasticity of current monetary system (the exchange rate system mainly) .
Chapter 6 focuses on the probability of adjusting the disequilibrium in the frame of monetary policies. Whether the adjustment of RMB and China’s domestic interest rate can obviously improve the disequilibrium is fully discussed from the aspects of the exports structure, international experience and statistical analysis. In China, more than half of the total exports are improvement trade, which is insensitive to changes in exchange rates. At present, China is experiencing a high economic growth, continuous trade surplus and potential RMB appreciation, which is quite similar to Germany in 70’s and Japan in 80’s in the last century. However, the experience of Germany and Japan showed that appreciation do not necessarily lead to the improvement in trade imbalance. Finally, a SVAR model is proposed to analyze how exchange rate will dynamically influence the trade surplus. To draw a conclusion, it is difficult to improve the balance of payment by exchange rate adjustments alone.
In Chapter 7, the thesis raises both long term and short term choices of domestic monetary policies to solve the problems on above. Exchange rate policies, interest rate adjustment and restrict capital control are needed in the short term to ease the difficulties at present. In the long run, China should pursue a floating exchange rate system, a more market-oriented interest rate and an open capital account. Floating exchange rate and open capital accounts are very essential to improve the independency of monetary policy, while a market-oriented interest rate is the condition for a more effective monetary policy. Besides, the thesis also proposes three supporting measures: to set up a more efficient social welfare system, to reform the resources market and to encourage the environmental protection.
引文
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