全面收益信息及其决策相关性研究
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摘要
当今世界经济全球化潮流席卷全球,世界各国的经济联系已越来越紧密,相互之间的经济交往也越来越频繁,中国会计准则国际趋同的步伐日益加速。中国2006年颁布的新会计准则将我国现阶段财务会计的目标定位在向委托人报告受托责任的履行的基础上提供出对决策有用的信息,在会计确认上确定了资产负债观的核心地位,在会计计量方面引入了公允价值计量属性,在会计报告中要求报告所有者权益变动表,体现了向全面收益发展的思想。
披露全面收益是国际会计准则趋同的要求,但如何确定其披露内容,规范其披露形式是各个国家要根据自身情况进行研究和统一的。本文运用归纳演绎法和比较法做定性分析和规范研究,用非参数统计方法、股价预测模型和主因素分析法做实证研究。通过分析对中国收益信息的相关性,寻找财务报告披露是否具有及时性,检验已披露的未实现收益项目的预测能力,实证收益信息对市场波动的影响,目的在于挖掘未实现收益项目披露的必要性,规范设计中国的全面收益报告,更为完整地披露企业的经营业绩,让会计收益逐步向经济收益回归。
本文正文有四大部分,第一部分为第2章。第2章主要针对国内外文献综述进行总结与探讨。发现国外学者们围绕着SFAs. No.130,对全面收益报告从未实现收益项目,报告模式以及全面收益信息的决策相关性三个方面开展了大量研究。国外文献大多通过建立收益模型或股价模型,以研究者本国的上市公司数据为研究对象,对全面收益的内容,特别是未实现收益项目的确定,进行相关性研究,为全面收益报告内容奠定基础。研究发现的是传统“净利润”指标相比“全面收益”更具信息含量和决策相关性。国内研究者对全面收益信息研究起步较晚,实证研究仅限于股价模型或收益模型的研究,对收益信息重构和设计披露形式的文章以定性分析为主。
第二大部分理论概述为第3章,包括了全面收益理论概述与相关性特征概述。前面两节主要针对全面收益信息进行概述,通过比较分析美国、英国、国际会计准则和中国对全面收益的概念及内容的规定；从扩展收益表法、综合收益表和权益变动表法三个国际上备用的披露全面收益报告的信息载体方面,分析了英国、美国和IASC的全面收益报告呈报,为后文中国全面收益报告设计奠定了理论基础(第5章)。第3节主要对会计信息质量特征的相关性进行了理论概述,在决策有用观的指引下,探讨了相关性与可靠性的选择,阐述了相关性特征的含义和组成要素：可预测性、反馈价值与及时性,明确了相关性的判别标准,即什么样的会计信息才是与决策相关的信息,为第4章的实证研究铺垫了研究思路。
第三部分为第4章,本章首先根据文献综述与相关理论概述设计了三个实证研究,从财务报告时间间隔研究财务信息的及时性,通过事件研究法和股价模型研究全面收益信息的预测能力,提出了5个假设,从实证角度重点研究了全面收益信息相关性。本章选取上海证券交易所上市公司股价和年报信息为研究样本,首先采用非参数统计方法重标极差分析法(R/S)、V统计、趋势去除法(DFA)和平均窗口移动法(DMA),运用分形市场理论和赫斯特指数对沪市样本上市公司的日收盘价进行了长期记忆过程的探寻,发现了沪市约4个月的记忆间隔,这个财务报告披露的间隔类似,可认为财务信息的报告间隔对沪市是有影响的,而收益信息作为财务报告信息重点,其及时发布对股价的影响是显著地,同时,3个月的报告间隔为后续实证选取平均股价的时间窗口奠定了基础。其次,本章运用事件研究法研究在财务报告披露报告期内,市场产生了非正常报酬,特别是经济危机下的2008年,超额回报显著性强,说明在经济低迷环境下,收益信息更受到投资者们的关注,同时,本章探讨了净收益、全面收益和直接计入所有者权益的利得和损失是否是引起上述超额报酬的因素,实证结果并不显著,且发现在未实现收益信息披露的影响下,传统净利润指标对市场的影响显著性有所降低,这也为中国收益信息的改革提供了依据。最后,本章运用股价模型,采用截面数据对2007年和2008年沪市股价与上市公司年报数据进行了分析,从市场对全面收益信息的总额与单项内容两个大方面进行了实证研究,结果发现其在报告期后3个月的时间窗口内对平均股价的波动是有影响的,只是影响程度弱于净利润指标每股收益；单项内容本章分别对在利润表和所有者权益变动表里披露的收益信息进行实证,发现了在利润表中披露的未实现损益较所有者权益变动表中披露的相关内容在市场中更具显著性,结论进一步说明改革收益报告的必要性,为第5章的定性分析和全面收益呈报的设计提供了数据证明。
第四部分为第5章,依据前文对全面收益及全面收益信息的相关性理论概述及实证研究,本章首先阐述了全面收益信息,再一次从决策者信息扩容、财务报告呈报改革需要、计量属性使用和控制盈余管理四个方面分析了披露总括收益的必要性,同时也指出了局限性,如会计要素定义含混、报告模式不确定、计量工具还不成熟和理论界与实务界存在政策制定的博弈。但不管全面收益信息应用起来有多么困难,其改革的基础和条件还是具备的,改革也是“收益”概念发展的必然要求。其次,本章对收益信息基本要素进行了确定,包括收益观念的转化、损益类要素定义的扩展、允许多种计量方法并存及财务报告之间,资产、收益和现金要素之间的勾稽关系,构建了全面收益观下财务报告内在逻辑图,为收益项目重构奠定基础。最后,本章提出了“核心利润”的概念,从经营资产和投资资产的划分入手,对比经营、投资和融资三大现金流,重构了净收益的构成,并根据前述理论概述和实证结构重新审视了未实现收益,研究了如公允价值变动损益等其他全面收益,在一表式的形式下,囊括已实现收益和未实现收益,提出分三阶段设计与改革全面收益呈报方式,形成全面收益表,改进企业业绩披露的平台。
本文有3个创新点。首先,通过非参数统计方法,运用了报告间隔的研究来反映以“收益”为主的财务信息及时性,发现财务报告季报间隔周期与沪市长期记忆循环周期的关系,由此提出,承载全面收益信息的所有者权益变动表并不在季报中披露,在中年报中披露但大部分未经审计,使得全面收益信息不被使用者所关注,因此,解决之道为设计全面收益报告替代利润表,在季报和中年报中进行直观披露。其次,笔者首次运用新会计准则实施后连续两年上市公司年报数据对全面收益信息的相关性进行了实证研究与比较分析,克服了用一年数据进行实证出现的数据无参考性和缺乏可靠性的问题,较为详细地描述了未实现收益信息的披露情况与决策相关程度。最后,本文通过对财务报告间的勾稽关系进行研究,将资产按照经营资产和投资资产分类,分别反映两者获取收益,以及通过现金流量表的分析二者确认收益的实现情况,重申了“收入”、“费用”和“利润”的要素定义,将“利得”与“损失”的概念囊括进去,扩大了其涵义,引入“核心利润”概念,以自己的理解和研究依据,重构利润,构建了“全面收益观下财务报告内在逻辑立体图”。并采用“一表式”的形式,分形式地设计了中国的全面收益合并报表,对未来企业业绩报告的披露方式提供参考。
当然,本文还存在一些不足之处,如研究样本不够广泛,样本公司来源限于上海证券交易所,由于时间有限,未对2009年年报数据进行分析；由于各国对“未实现”损益项目还在进行论证,本文对中国市场所有其他全面收益项目可能没有归纳完全,缺乏收益分析指标设计。但上述问题都可作为未来研究的大方向,随着市场完善和准则执行经验积累不断探讨,多角度、多方面促进收益概念与呈报方式的改革。
AS international economic booming and interconnecting, we accelate the international accounting standard harmonization, through 2006 published accounting standard in China. We asked for useful and relevant information for all users based asset/liability view, fair value measurement and extention to comprehensive income through Statement of Changes in Equity.
To disclose comprehensive income is the need for international accounting standard harmonization. However, we are not sure about how to recognize, measure and disclose the contents, even if each countries has their own way to dislose. This dissertation uses the deduction/ induction methods, makes comparations to comprehensive contents and disclosure in each western country which is domesticated, and uses empirical study methods, such as Wilcoxon Methods, Stock price prediction models and Principal Components Factor Analysis, to research the comprehensive income and its relevance.
This dissertation has four parts. The first part is Chapter 2, which summaries and discusses the home and abroad literatures. Foreign researchers focus on the unrealized income, disclosure of comprehensive income and its cotents'decisions relevances based on SFAs. No.130. They like to use stock return model or stock price model to research comprehensive income, based on domestic capital datas, especially the unrealized income. The results show that traditional "net income" index contents more information for decision making than "comprehensive income". Domestic researchers study later than foreigners, limite to stock return model or stock price model and focus on qualitative analysis.
The second part is chapter 3, which overviews of comprehensive income relative theories and relativity. First two sections anylse the contents and discloure of comprehsive income through make differences among American, English, and international accounting standards through extended income statement, integrated income statement and statement of changes in equity, to establish theory basis for chapter 5 which design the comprehensive income statement. The third section discusses the choice between reliability and relativity for accounting information qualtity and analyses the three components of relevance, predictivity value, confirmatory value and timeliness, which are designed to empirical study in next chapter.
The third part is the major part with chapter 4, which designs three empirical studies with financial reports interim to research timeness, events study and stock price model to discuss the predictivity vaule. I propose five hypotheses to research comprehensive income's decision relevance. I choose price and financial reports information in listed company in Shanghai Stock Exchange, first to use fractal market hypothesis to calculate the Hurst Exponent with Rescaled Range Analysis, V Statistic, Detrended Fluctuation Average and Detrended Fluctuation Average to seek for long-term memory in Shanghai Stock Exchange and find three months memory interval wich is similar with quarter financial report in listed companies's interval, therefore, I consider the report interval affects the stock price in capital market and performance index analysis, meantime, the three months interval establishs the basis for next two researches in average stock price calculation. Secondly, I use event study to find the Cumulative Abnormal Returns during the financial reports time window which is statistical significant in 2008, when happed to financial crisis. However, I find income indexs, especially the unrealized income, do not cause the Cumulative Abnormal Returns in 2008, although it affects the significance of tranditional income index "Earnings per Share". Last, I use cross sectional data to analyse the stock price and accounting information in financial reports in listed companies with total amount and individual income two aspects, find unrealized income information from the statement of changes in equity and income statement have different effection to average stock price fluctuation, especially the "impairment" and "fair value changes". All the findings in this chapter provide the base data for chapter 5 and show the necessity of reforming the income statement to comprehensive income statement.
The last part contains chapter 5, which reconstructs the income contents and designs the comprehensive income in China. Firstly, I analysis the necessarities and limitations for disclosing comprehensive income, where more and more users need more integrate informations, the patern of income statement need to be reformed, measurement attributes need to be standared and earning management need to be controlled, meanwhile, the standard making games between theory circle and pratical circle. No matter how difficult to reform the income statement, we have had basis and conditions. Secondly, I recognize the basic income elements. I enlager the "income" and "expense" with unrealized profits and losses and design inner logistical connections among assets, incomes and cash articulation through block diagram. At last, I cite "core earnings" from operational assets and investmental assets, then, reconstruct the net earnings and reorganize the disclosure of unrealized incomes to design comprenhensive income statements which contain realized income and unrealized income at stages whitin one table when disclosed.
This dissertation has three creative points. First, I use report time interval to research the accounting information's timeness, which is especially reflected by performance index, and find three months cycle to show the importantce to disclose the comprehensive income information in quarter financial reports and the necessity to reform the income statement. Secondly, I use contiguous two years accounting information to do empirical reaserch, and overcome lacking reliability and referral with only one year data. Meantime, I describe the unrealized income individuals and their decision relevance in details. At last, I research for the extense income elements definition, citing core earning concept, reconstructiong the income, designing the inner logistical financial reporting block diagram and an ideal consolidation comprehensive statement.
However, this dissertation exits two limitations. One is the sample size is not enough, and no analysis for datas in 2009 because of the time limited. Another is maybe I didn't considerate all unrealized income items because of the diversification operations forms and discuss the indexs for analyzing the comprehensive income statement, which will be my future research aspects.
In all, this dissertation wishs to provide reference vaule to accounting standard innovation in China and harmonization from researching comprehensive income and its decision relevance, and offers more research thread.
披露全面收益是国际会计准则趋同的要求,但如何确定其披露内容,规范其披露形式是各个国家要根据自身情况进行研究和统一的。本文运用归纳演绎法和比较法做定性分析和规范研究,用非参数统计方法、股价预测模型和主因素分析法做实证研究。通过分析对中国收益信息的相关性,寻找财务报告披露是否具有及时性,检验已披露的未实现收益项目的预测能力,实证收益信息对市场波动的影响,目的在于挖掘未实现收益项目披露的必要性,规范设计中国的全面收益报告,更为完整地披露企业的经营业绩,让会计收益逐步向经济收益回归。
本文正文有四大部分,第一部分为第2章。第2章主要针对国内外文献综述进行总结与探讨。发现国外学者们围绕着SFAs. No.130,对全面收益报告从未实现收益项目,报告模式以及全面收益信息的决策相关性三个方面开展了大量研究。国外文献大多通过建立收益模型或股价模型,以研究者本国的上市公司数据为研究对象,对全面收益的内容,特别是未实现收益项目的确定,进行相关性研究,为全面收益报告内容奠定基础。研究发现的是传统“净利润”指标相比“全面收益”更具信息含量和决策相关性。国内研究者对全面收益信息研究起步较晚,实证研究仅限于股价模型或收益模型的研究,对收益信息重构和设计披露形式的文章以定性分析为主。
第二大部分理论概述为第3章,包括了全面收益理论概述与相关性特征概述。前面两节主要针对全面收益信息进行概述,通过比较分析美国、英国、国际会计准则和中国对全面收益的概念及内容的规定；从扩展收益表法、综合收益表和权益变动表法三个国际上备用的披露全面收益报告的信息载体方面,分析了英国、美国和IASC的全面收益报告呈报,为后文中国全面收益报告设计奠定了理论基础(第5章)。第3节主要对会计信息质量特征的相关性进行了理论概述,在决策有用观的指引下,探讨了相关性与可靠性的选择,阐述了相关性特征的含义和组成要素：可预测性、反馈价值与及时性,明确了相关性的判别标准,即什么样的会计信息才是与决策相关的信息,为第4章的实证研究铺垫了研究思路。
第三部分为第4章,本章首先根据文献综述与相关理论概述设计了三个实证研究,从财务报告时间间隔研究财务信息的及时性,通过事件研究法和股价模型研究全面收益信息的预测能力,提出了5个假设,从实证角度重点研究了全面收益信息相关性。本章选取上海证券交易所上市公司股价和年报信息为研究样本,首先采用非参数统计方法重标极差分析法(R/S)、V统计、趋势去除法(DFA)和平均窗口移动法(DMA),运用分形市场理论和赫斯特指数对沪市样本上市公司的日收盘价进行了长期记忆过程的探寻,发现了沪市约4个月的记忆间隔,这个财务报告披露的间隔类似,可认为财务信息的报告间隔对沪市是有影响的,而收益信息作为财务报告信息重点,其及时发布对股价的影响是显著地,同时,3个月的报告间隔为后续实证选取平均股价的时间窗口奠定了基础。其次,本章运用事件研究法研究在财务报告披露报告期内,市场产生了非正常报酬,特别是经济危机下的2008年,超额回报显著性强,说明在经济低迷环境下,收益信息更受到投资者们的关注,同时,本章探讨了净收益、全面收益和直接计入所有者权益的利得和损失是否是引起上述超额报酬的因素,实证结果并不显著,且发现在未实现收益信息披露的影响下,传统净利润指标对市场的影响显著性有所降低,这也为中国收益信息的改革提供了依据。最后,本章运用股价模型,采用截面数据对2007年和2008年沪市股价与上市公司年报数据进行了分析,从市场对全面收益信息的总额与单项内容两个大方面进行了实证研究,结果发现其在报告期后3个月的时间窗口内对平均股价的波动是有影响的,只是影响程度弱于净利润指标每股收益；单项内容本章分别对在利润表和所有者权益变动表里披露的收益信息进行实证,发现了在利润表中披露的未实现损益较所有者权益变动表中披露的相关内容在市场中更具显著性,结论进一步说明改革收益报告的必要性,为第5章的定性分析和全面收益呈报的设计提供了数据证明。
第四部分为第5章,依据前文对全面收益及全面收益信息的相关性理论概述及实证研究,本章首先阐述了全面收益信息,再一次从决策者信息扩容、财务报告呈报改革需要、计量属性使用和控制盈余管理四个方面分析了披露总括收益的必要性,同时也指出了局限性,如会计要素定义含混、报告模式不确定、计量工具还不成熟和理论界与实务界存在政策制定的博弈。但不管全面收益信息应用起来有多么困难,其改革的基础和条件还是具备的,改革也是“收益”概念发展的必然要求。其次,本章对收益信息基本要素进行了确定,包括收益观念的转化、损益类要素定义的扩展、允许多种计量方法并存及财务报告之间,资产、收益和现金要素之间的勾稽关系,构建了全面收益观下财务报告内在逻辑图,为收益项目重构奠定基础。最后,本章提出了“核心利润”的概念,从经营资产和投资资产的划分入手,对比经营、投资和融资三大现金流,重构了净收益的构成,并根据前述理论概述和实证结构重新审视了未实现收益,研究了如公允价值变动损益等其他全面收益,在一表式的形式下,囊括已实现收益和未实现收益,提出分三阶段设计与改革全面收益呈报方式,形成全面收益表,改进企业业绩披露的平台。
本文有3个创新点。首先,通过非参数统计方法,运用了报告间隔的研究来反映以“收益”为主的财务信息及时性,发现财务报告季报间隔周期与沪市长期记忆循环周期的关系,由此提出,承载全面收益信息的所有者权益变动表并不在季报中披露,在中年报中披露但大部分未经审计,使得全面收益信息不被使用者所关注,因此,解决之道为设计全面收益报告替代利润表,在季报和中年报中进行直观披露。其次,笔者首次运用新会计准则实施后连续两年上市公司年报数据对全面收益信息的相关性进行了实证研究与比较分析,克服了用一年数据进行实证出现的数据无参考性和缺乏可靠性的问题,较为详细地描述了未实现收益信息的披露情况与决策相关程度。最后,本文通过对财务报告间的勾稽关系进行研究,将资产按照经营资产和投资资产分类,分别反映两者获取收益,以及通过现金流量表的分析二者确认收益的实现情况,重申了“收入”、“费用”和“利润”的要素定义,将“利得”与“损失”的概念囊括进去,扩大了其涵义,引入“核心利润”概念,以自己的理解和研究依据,重构利润,构建了“全面收益观下财务报告内在逻辑立体图”。并采用“一表式”的形式,分形式地设计了中国的全面收益合并报表,对未来企业业绩报告的披露方式提供参考。
当然,本文还存在一些不足之处,如研究样本不够广泛,样本公司来源限于上海证券交易所,由于时间有限,未对2009年年报数据进行分析；由于各国对“未实现”损益项目还在进行论证,本文对中国市场所有其他全面收益项目可能没有归纳完全,缺乏收益分析指标设计。但上述问题都可作为未来研究的大方向,随着市场完善和准则执行经验积累不断探讨,多角度、多方面促进收益概念与呈报方式的改革。
AS international economic booming and interconnecting, we accelate the international accounting standard harmonization, through 2006 published accounting standard in China. We asked for useful and relevant information for all users based asset/liability view, fair value measurement and extention to comprehensive income through Statement of Changes in Equity.
To disclose comprehensive income is the need for international accounting standard harmonization. However, we are not sure about how to recognize, measure and disclose the contents, even if each countries has their own way to dislose. This dissertation uses the deduction/ induction methods, makes comparations to comprehensive contents and disclosure in each western country which is domesticated, and uses empirical study methods, such as Wilcoxon Methods, Stock price prediction models and Principal Components Factor Analysis, to research the comprehensive income and its relevance.
This dissertation has four parts. The first part is Chapter 2, which summaries and discusses the home and abroad literatures. Foreign researchers focus on the unrealized income, disclosure of comprehensive income and its cotents'decisions relevances based on SFAs. No.130. They like to use stock return model or stock price model to research comprehensive income, based on domestic capital datas, especially the unrealized income. The results show that traditional "net income" index contents more information for decision making than "comprehensive income". Domestic researchers study later than foreigners, limite to stock return model or stock price model and focus on qualitative analysis.
The second part is chapter 3, which overviews of comprehensive income relative theories and relativity. First two sections anylse the contents and discloure of comprehsive income through make differences among American, English, and international accounting standards through extended income statement, integrated income statement and statement of changes in equity, to establish theory basis for chapter 5 which design the comprehensive income statement. The third section discusses the choice between reliability and relativity for accounting information qualtity and analyses the three components of relevance, predictivity value, confirmatory value and timeliness, which are designed to empirical study in next chapter.
The third part is the major part with chapter 4, which designs three empirical studies with financial reports interim to research timeness, events study and stock price model to discuss the predictivity vaule. I propose five hypotheses to research comprehensive income's decision relevance. I choose price and financial reports information in listed company in Shanghai Stock Exchange, first to use fractal market hypothesis to calculate the Hurst Exponent with Rescaled Range Analysis, V Statistic, Detrended Fluctuation Average and Detrended Fluctuation Average to seek for long-term memory in Shanghai Stock Exchange and find three months memory interval wich is similar with quarter financial report in listed companies's interval, therefore, I consider the report interval affects the stock price in capital market and performance index analysis, meantime, the three months interval establishs the basis for next two researches in average stock price calculation. Secondly, I use event study to find the Cumulative Abnormal Returns during the financial reports time window which is statistical significant in 2008, when happed to financial crisis. However, I find income indexs, especially the unrealized income, do not cause the Cumulative Abnormal Returns in 2008, although it affects the significance of tranditional income index "Earnings per Share". Last, I use cross sectional data to analyse the stock price and accounting information in financial reports in listed companies with total amount and individual income two aspects, find unrealized income information from the statement of changes in equity and income statement have different effection to average stock price fluctuation, especially the "impairment" and "fair value changes". All the findings in this chapter provide the base data for chapter 5 and show the necessity of reforming the income statement to comprehensive income statement.
The last part contains chapter 5, which reconstructs the income contents and designs the comprehensive income in China. Firstly, I analysis the necessarities and limitations for disclosing comprehensive income, where more and more users need more integrate informations, the patern of income statement need to be reformed, measurement attributes need to be standared and earning management need to be controlled, meanwhile, the standard making games between theory circle and pratical circle. No matter how difficult to reform the income statement, we have had basis and conditions. Secondly, I recognize the basic income elements. I enlager the "income" and "expense" with unrealized profits and losses and design inner logistical connections among assets, incomes and cash articulation through block diagram. At last, I cite "core earnings" from operational assets and investmental assets, then, reconstruct the net earnings and reorganize the disclosure of unrealized incomes to design comprenhensive income statements which contain realized income and unrealized income at stages whitin one table when disclosed.
This dissertation has three creative points. First, I use report time interval to research the accounting information's timeness, which is especially reflected by performance index, and find three months cycle to show the importantce to disclose the comprehensive income information in quarter financial reports and the necessity to reform the income statement. Secondly, I use contiguous two years accounting information to do empirical reaserch, and overcome lacking reliability and referral with only one year data. Meantime, I describe the unrealized income individuals and their decision relevance in details. At last, I research for the extense income elements definition, citing core earning concept, reconstructiong the income, designing the inner logistical financial reporting block diagram and an ideal consolidation comprehensive statement.
However, this dissertation exits two limitations. One is the sample size is not enough, and no analysis for datas in 2009 because of the time limited. Another is maybe I didn't considerate all unrealized income items because of the diversification operations forms and discuss the indexs for analyzing the comprehensive income statement, which will be my future research aspects.
In all, this dissertation wishs to provide reference vaule to accounting standard innovation in China and harmonization from researching comprehensive income and its decision relevance, and offers more research thread.
引文
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2证实价值将取代FASB现行概念框架中“反馈价值”(feedback value)的提法。
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91494年被称为会计学术史上的新纪元,意大利数学家,会计学家卢卡.帕乔利在威尼斯就出版了他潜心30年撰述的名著《数学大全》(即《算数.几何.比及比例概要》),实质上已为“资产负债表”勾画了轮廓。给财务报表奠定基石,但未提到包括损益表在内的财务报表的编制。直至1844年英国的《股份公司注册法》要求公司影响股东公布审计后的资产负债表。1856年的《公司法》又规定了资产负债表的标准格式。
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