西北太平洋超强台风活动特征分析
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摘要
本文使用美国联合台风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC)公布的西北太平洋热带气旋6小时路径资料对1965年-2008年西北太平洋发生的热带气旋和超强台风进行统计,分析了热带气旋和超强台风的时间、空间分布特征,并对二者不同的分布特征进行了比较。在对比热带气旋和超强台风在季节变化上的不同活动特征的基础上,利用NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction)公布的2.5°×2.5°风场、湿度场、温度场、高度场日平均及月平均再分析资料以及SODA (the simple ocean data assimilation)的海温资料,分析了影响热带气旋强度的大尺度环境因素,同时通过分析热带气旋和超强台风的年际变化特征验证了大尺度环境因素对热带气旋和超强台风活动的影响。得到的结论有：1)西北太平洋平均每年生成热带气旋30个左右,其中达到超强台风等级的占该区域全部热带气旋总数的比例约为21%。热带气旋和超强台风发生频率的最大值区域都在菲律宾以东海域,并且在南海有一个次大值活动中心,热带气旋在南海的活动中心更加明显。2)热带气旋和超强台风活动都有明显的季节变化,热带气旋最活跃季节为7-10月,月生成数最大值在8月份,最小值在2月份,而超强台风的活跃季节为7-11月,月生成数最大值发生在9月,最小值在2、3月份。热带气旋和超强台风的活动区域都是在2-3月维持在15°N以南,4-9月随着季节向北、向西推进,同时发生的频率不断增大,10月以后,开始向南退,并且发生的频率呈减小趋势。超强台风的路径形态比热带气旋的路径更加规则。通过对西北太平洋热带气旋强度的分析以及大尺度背景因素的对比,发现低层相对涡度和经向风的垂直切变是影响热带气旋强度的最主要因素,二者对热带气旋强度的作用明显大于其他大尺度环境因素。热带气旋强度在4月份和11月份的峰值很可能与亚-澳季风环流季节性转换时造成的低层环境涡度较大和经向风垂直切变较弱有关,这是造成热带气旋和超强台风的季节变化不同的主要原因。3)低层相对涡度和经向风的垂直切变对热带气旋的影响不仅体现在季节变化上,在热带气旋强度的年际变化中同样发挥着重要的作用。热带气旋活动区域低层相对涡度较大、经向风垂直切变较小的年份,热带气旋可以达到更高的强度。在中太平洋ENSO的暖事件(CPW)年,热带气旋在发展西移过程中能够享有更大的低层大气正涡度环境和更小的经向垂直风切变环境,同时会有更充分的增长空间,有利于热带气旋的增强,所以CPW年超强台风活动比CPC (Central Pacific Cooling)年频繁。超强台风的活动和中太平洋型ENSO现象的冷、暖事件,即CPW现象和CPC现象体现出良好的相关性,而与东太平洋型ENSO的冷、暖事件,即EPW现象和EPC现象的相关性并不是十分明显。
Using the tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity data of western North Pacific from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of U.S., this study analyzes the statistical features of TC and STY (super typhoon) over western North Pacific (WNP) from 1965 to 2008 and described the temporal and spatial variability of TC and STY activities. The contrast between features of TC activity and STY activity are analyzed. The large-scale environmental parameters on TC activity are analyzed from vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), low-level relative vorticity and mid-level humidity by using the NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data. The relation between STY activity and ENSO as well as the mechanism of ENSO affecting on STY activity were also investigated. The main results are as follow:1)There are about 30 TCs formed over WNP every year and 21% of them could reach the rank of STY. Both of TC frequency and STY frequency shows two peaks distribution.One of the two peaks locates to the east of Philippine sea, and the other locates in the north part of South China Sea.2)TC and STY activities have obvious seasonal variability. The most of TCs appear from July to October. There is a grate TC number in August while the minmum TC number is in February. The most of STYs appear from July to November. There is a grate STY number in September while the minmum TC number is in February and March. TC and STY active to the south of 15°N in February and March. From April to September, the area of TC and STY activity continuously migrated to the northwestward and the frequency of them was in an increasing trend. And then, the location of them migrated southeastward from October to December, and the frequency of them was in a decreasing trend during this time. Results showed that seasonal TC intensity change have three peaks(Apr, Jul and Nov) while seasonal TC number cycle have only one peak(Aug).This feature of TC intensity attributed to large-scale environmental parameters'seasonal variability. Low-level vortex and meridional vertical wind shear are more important than other five parameters, and they play important rules in the interannual variability of TC intensity.3) In the central Pacific warming years, TCs could stay in weak vertical shear and large positive Low-level vortex during their movements, and vice versa during central Pacific cooling (CPC) years. There are more STYs in CPW years than in CPC years. There is remarkable relationship between central Pacific ENSO and STY activity, while the relationship between eastern Pacific ENSO and STY activity is not remarkable.
Using the tropical cyclone (TC) best track and intensity data of western North Pacific from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of U.S., this study analyzes the statistical features of TC and STY (super typhoon) over western North Pacific (WNP) from 1965 to 2008 and described the temporal and spatial variability of TC and STY activities. The contrast between features of TC activity and STY activity are analyzed. The large-scale environmental parameters on TC activity are analyzed from vertical wind shear, sea surface temperature (SST), low-level relative vorticity and mid-level humidity by using the NCEP (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction) reanalysis data. The relation between STY activity and ENSO as well as the mechanism of ENSO affecting on STY activity were also investigated. The main results are as follow:1)There are about 30 TCs formed over WNP every year and 21% of them could reach the rank of STY. Both of TC frequency and STY frequency shows two peaks distribution.One of the two peaks locates to the east of Philippine sea, and the other locates in the north part of South China Sea.2)TC and STY activities have obvious seasonal variability. The most of TCs appear from July to October. There is a grate TC number in August while the minmum TC number is in February. The most of STYs appear from July to November. There is a grate STY number in September while the minmum TC number is in February and March. TC and STY active to the south of 15°N in February and March. From April to September, the area of TC and STY activity continuously migrated to the northwestward and the frequency of them was in an increasing trend. And then, the location of them migrated southeastward from October to December, and the frequency of them was in a decreasing trend during this time. Results showed that seasonal TC intensity change have three peaks(Apr, Jul and Nov) while seasonal TC number cycle have only one peak(Aug).This feature of TC intensity attributed to large-scale environmental parameters'seasonal variability. Low-level vortex and meridional vertical wind shear are more important than other five parameters, and they play important rules in the interannual variability of TC intensity.3) In the central Pacific warming years, TCs could stay in weak vertical shear and large positive Low-level vortex during their movements, and vice versa during central Pacific cooling (CPC) years. There are more STYs in CPW years than in CPC years. There is remarkable relationship between central Pacific ENSO and STY activity, while the relationship between eastern Pacific ENSO and STY activity is not remarkable.
引文
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[4]陈光华,黄荣辉,西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动若干气候问题的研究,地球科学进展2006,Vol.21,No.6,610-616
[5]陈敏,郑永光,陶祖玉,近50年(1949-1999)西北太平洋热带气旋气候特征的再分析,热带气象学报,1999,Vol.15,No.1,10-16
[6]余晖,端义宏,西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化的统计特征,气象学报,2002,Vol.60,No.6,680-686
[7]李爱平,沈红梅,石少华,西北太平洋热带气旋强度变化特征分析,海洋预报,2006,23(3)：64-71
[8]Emanuel Kerry, The Dependence of Hurricane Intensity on Climate[J], Nature,1987: 326:483-485
[9]Wang Y. and C.-C. Wu, Current Understanding of Tropical Cyclone Structure and Intensity Changes-a Review[J],2003,Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics,651,1-22.
[10]Gray W. M. Global View of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms [J], MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,1968,96:669-700
[11]Emanuel Kerry, The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes, Journal of the Atmospheric Science, 1988,45(7):1143-1155
[12]Emanuel Kerry, The Dependence of Hurricane Intensity on Climate,1987,326(2):483-485
[13]Schade Lars R 2000 Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Sea Surface Temperature, Journal of the Atmospheric Science,57:3122-3130)
[14]Sanford TB, Black PG, Haustein JR, Feeney JW, Forristall GZ, Price JF (1987) Ocean response to a hurricane. PartⅠ:Observations. J Phys Oceanogr 17:2065-2083
[15]Gray W. M. Global View of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms[J], MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,1968,96:669-700
[16]何秋望,垂直风切环境中非理想涡旋结构变化-以2006年碧利斯与凯米台风为例[D],2007,硕十毕业论文,国立中央大学大气物理研究所
[17]Kepert JD (2001) The dynamics of boundary layer jets within the tropical cyclone core. Part Ⅰ:Linear theory.J Atmos Sci 58:2469-2484
[18]Peng MS, Jeng B-F, Williams RT (1999) A numerical study on tropical cyclone intensification. Part Ⅰ:Beta effect and mean flow effect. J Atmos Sci 56:1404-1423
[19]余锦华,谈哲敏2007,岛屿地形对涡旋Rossby波传播影响的研究,南京大学学报(自然科学),2007,43(6)：597-605
[20]Chia Hsin Hsing, C. F. Ropelewski, The Inter-annual Variability in the Genesis Location of Tropical Cyclones in the Northwest Pacific, Journal of Climate,2002,Vol.15,2934-2944
[21]周学鸣,魏应植,无陈锋,夏季西太平洋台风频数异常与ENSO事件的关系及大气环流异常特征,热带气旋,2006,22(1)：34-40
[22]Camargo Suzana J., Adam H. Sobel, Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Intensity and ENSO, Journal of Climate,2005, Vol.18,2996-3006
[23]Bin Wang, Johnny C.L.Chan,2002,How Strong ENSO Affect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific, American Meteorological Society,15:1643-1658
[24]Chan C.L., Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Associated with El Nino and La Nina Events, Journal of Climate,2000,Vol.13,2960-2972
[25]Chan Johnny C. L.,Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Northwest Pacific in Relation to the El Nino/Southern Oscillation Phenomenon, Mon. Wea. Rev.1985,113:599-606
[26]Lieberman B, Hendon H H, Glick J D. The Relationship between Tropical Cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Madden-Julian Oscillation.Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan,1994,72:401-411
[27]陈光华,黄荣辉, 西北太平洋低频振荡对热带气旋生成的动力作用及其物理机制,大气科学,33(2)：205-214
[28]Ko Ken-Chung, Huang-Hsing Hsu. ISO Modulation on the Submonthly Wave Pattern and Recurving Tropical Cyclones in the Tropical Western North Pacific, Journal of Atmosphere Science,22:582-599
[29]Chen T. C. and S. P. Weng,1998:Interannual variation of the summer synoptic-scale disturbance activity in the western tropical Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev.,126:1725-1733
[30]Gray W M. Atlantic seasonal hurricane frequency Part I:El Nino 30mb quasi-biennial Osillatiun influences[J]Monthly Weather Review,1984,112:1649-1668
[31]Chan J C L Tropical cyclone activity in the northwest Pacific in relation to the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation[J]. Month 1 y Weather Review,1995,123:2567-2571.
[32]田荣湘,太阳活动、准两年振荡对西北太平洋热带气旋的影响,浙江大学学报(地理版),2005,Vol.32,No.3,350-354
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