长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响评估
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摘要
目前,全球气候正经历着以变暖为主要特征的显著变化,温度的升高改变了农业生产环境条件,高温导致的农业气象灾害对农作物的影响也日益突出,如何确保国家粮食安全及农业生产快速稳定发展,是我国农业面临的一个挑战。在此背景下,研究气候变化引起的高温热害对我国农业生产的影响具有较强的现实意义。本研究以长江中下游地区的气象资料和水稻生长发育观测资料为基础,用统计分析方法探讨了水稻高温热害发生的强度、频率和时空变化规律,确定了水稻高温热害危害较大的时段;并对WOFOST作物模型水稻遗传参数进行了调整检验,建立了水稻模型区域应用数据库,同时,还根据高温对水稻生长发育过程的影响,对模型进行了适当改进;应用改进后的模型,模拟不同发育时段高温热害对早稻和中稻生长发育和产量的影响,并以水稻减产率作为高温热害评估指标,模拟实际气象条件和平均气象条件下的水稻产量,对比分析模拟结果,评估了长江中下游地区高温热害对水稻的影响程度。得到的初步结论如下:
1、高温热害天气主要集中在长江中下游南部大部分地区。日最高气温≥35℃的高温天气多发生在湖南、江西和浙江三省,主要高值区在江西省的贵溪、樟树、吉安及浙江省的丽水、金华等地;日平均气温≥30℃的高温天气发生日数除以上地区值较大外,在湖北省的嘉鱼、黄石等地区出现日数也较多。高温天气的多发年份有1966年、1967年、1971年、1978年、1988年、1994年、1995年以及2003年等。
2、在水稻发育各阶段,当发生相同强度高温热害时,早稻减产程度依次为灌浆期最大,花期次之,孕穗期最小;中稻在温度达30℃时,各发育期减产与早稻相同,在温度为35℃时,当高温持续日数达3日开始,开花期减产程度开始大于灌浆期。随着高温持续日数增加,早稻和中稻孕穗期产量减幅较小,而开花期和灌浆期减产则显著增加。当发生相同持续日数高温热害时,早稻减产仍是灌浆期最大,孕穗期最小;中稻在高温强度小于34℃时,各发育阶段减产情况与早稻近似,当高温强度达34℃时开始,开花期减产程度略大于灌浆期,孕穗期减产仍为最小,所以温度强度较大的高温对中稻花期的影响更为严重。随着高温强度增加,早稻产量损失逐渐增加;中稻在温度较低时,减产幅度也随温度增加明显,但当高于某一温度后,减产幅度的增加减小。在不同强度和持续日数的高温影响下,一日的高温天气对早稻和中稻减产影响不大,随着高温强度和持续日数的增加,各发育阶段产量损失基本成线性关系递减。在相同生长条件下,早稻和中稻孕穗期受高温影响减产较小,开花期和灌浆期受高温影响减产较大,中稻的减产幅度一般要略大于早稻,且中稻更易遭受较严重的高温热害影响。
3、对比分析平均气象条件及实际气象条件下的水稻产量,从时间变化上来看,早稻减产率波动变化较为明显,减产年份占研究总年份的52.2%,产量减少较多的几个年份是67年、71年、78年、88年和94年;中稻减产率波动要小于早稻,但减产年份要明显多于早稻,占总年份的69.6%,产量损失较明显的年份是67年、78年、94年、95年、03年及06年。从空间分布来看,在60年代,长江中下游北部部分地区,早稻有5～6年出现了减产,在70、80和90年代,减产出现年数大部分地区均在3～4年之间,到2000年以后,研究地区东北部大部分地区又有5～6年出现了减产;中稻在60年代,大部分地区减产年数出现较多,南部部分地区有7～9年出现减产,在70年代和90年代,在北部大部地区有5～6年出现减产,在80年代,西部大部分地区则出现了3～4年的减产,到2000年以后,研究区域东部部分地区又出现了5～6年的减产。
4、高温天气多发的典型年份,水稻产量损失十分显著,无论早稻还是中稻减产率值最高均达30%以上,且减产区域多以重度灾害分布为主。其中,1967年高温对中稻产量的影响要大于早稻;1978年早稻和中稻受高温影响减产区域比较接近;1994年高温对早稻产量的影响范围明显大于中稻,而2003年则是中稻受高温影响程度明显大于早稻。在相同的高温年份,中稻的最大减产率值一般要大于早稻。因此总的来说,高温热害对中稻的不利影响大于早稻。
The currently global climate has being experienced a significant change characterized as warming up. Varying temperature changed the environmental conditions of agricultural production, and the agro-meteorological disasters which were induced by high temperature effect on crop yield was also increasingly prominent. How to ensure national food security and the stable development of agricultural production was a challenge facing humanity. In this context, it has strong practical significance to assess the impact of climate change caused by hot damage on agricultural production in China. This paper based on the meteorological data of the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River and the growth period data of rice. Applying statistical analysis, the intensity, frequency and temporal-spatial variation of hot damage was investigated and the high-risk period of high temperature was defined. In order to establish the regional model database, field observations were used to calculate and calibrate the cultivar genetic parameters by put into WOFOST crop model. Then, according to the impacts of high temperature on rice growth, the crop model was improved appropriately. In Different growth periods with the impact of hot damage, the improved model was used to simulate the yield of early rice and medium rice. Meanwhile, the rice yield in both actual weather conditions and average weather conditions were simulated to be contrasted. Using the yield reduction rate as the hot damage evaluation index, the paper assessed the impact of high temperature damage for rice in the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River. The main results in the article would be presented as following:
1. Frequent damage of high temperature weather was occurred in most parts of the southern Yangtze River, but in the western and northeastern regions were relatively less. The high temperature days of maximum temperature≥35℃were more in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces, and the main high-value areas were in Guixi, Zhangshu, Ji’an of Jiangxi and Lishui, Jinhua of Zhejiang. In addition to the above areas, the high temperature days of average temperature≥30℃also occurred frequently in Jiayu, Huangshi of Hubei. High temperature year is mainly in 1966, 1967, 1971, 1978, 1988, 1994, 1995 and 2003.
2. During all developmental stages of rice, when the same intensity hot damage occurred, the level of early rice production cuts were filling stage the maximum, flower stage the second and booting stage the minimum. When the temperature was 30℃, yield decline of both medium rice and early rice were the same. While when the temperature rises to 35℃and the high temperature continuously over 3 days, the medium rice yield of flowering stage was more sensitive to continuous days of higher temperature, and the drop in yield should be greater than the degree of filling stage. As the number of high temperature days continued to increase, the early and medium rice yield of booting stage reduced little, while the yield of flowering and filling stage decreased more significantly. When the same frequency heat damage occurred, the production cuts of early and medium rice were larger than that at filling stage. But when the temperature was high than 34℃, the falling yield of medium rice at flowering stage was greater than that at filling stage, which means that higher temperature strength greater impact on medium rice at flowering period. With the high temperature strength increased, yield loss of early rice also gradually increased. While for medium rice, when temperature was low, the yield reduction increased significantly, but when it is beyond some temperature, the increase in yield reduction would reduce. Under the same growth conditions, the reduced production rate of medium rice was generally larger than early rice, and medium rice was more vulnerable to more serious high temperature weather.
3. Compared the rice yield in average weather conditions with actual weather conditions. Changing from the time, the fluctuation of yield reduction rate of early rice was more significant. The years of obvious early rice yield loss were 1967, 1971, 1978, 1988 and 1994. While the fluctuation of medium rice yield was less than that of early rice, but the number of years in which yield declined was much more than that of early rice. The medium rice yield were reduced in1967, 1978, 1994, 1995, 2003, and 2006. Changing from the spatial distribution, in parts of the northern Yangtze River region, the underproduction of early rice presented between 5~6 years in the 60s. And in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, the underproduction of most districts occurred between 3~4 years, moreover the south areas has 7~9 years to present the yield loss. After the 2000 the most regions of northeast experienced production cuts between 5~6 years. In the 60's, medium rice yield was most seriously affected between 7~9 years in the south region. In the 70’s and 90’s, the cut yield occurred in parts of northern areas between 5~6 years. And there was 3～4 years of yields reduction in most west area in 80’s. Up to 2000, production cut between 5~6 years appeared in the eastern region.
4. In these years which high temperature weather occurred more frequently, yield reduction rate of both early rice and medium rice were more than 30% and there were significant regions of severe disasters. In addition, high temperature days in 1967 had more serious influences on medium rice yield than that of early rice. In 1978, the hot damage regions of early rice were close to that of medium rice. In 1994, high temperature effect on early rice yield was stronger than medium rice yield. While the high temperature in 2003 affected medium rice more seriously than early rice. Generally, in the same high temperature year, the maximum yield reduction rate of medium rice was larger than early rice.
1、高温热害天气主要集中在长江中下游南部大部分地区。日最高气温≥35℃的高温天气多发生在湖南、江西和浙江三省,主要高值区在江西省的贵溪、樟树、吉安及浙江省的丽水、金华等地;日平均气温≥30℃的高温天气发生日数除以上地区值较大外,在湖北省的嘉鱼、黄石等地区出现日数也较多。高温天气的多发年份有1966年、1967年、1971年、1978年、1988年、1994年、1995年以及2003年等。
2、在水稻发育各阶段,当发生相同强度高温热害时,早稻减产程度依次为灌浆期最大,花期次之,孕穗期最小;中稻在温度达30℃时,各发育期减产与早稻相同,在温度为35℃时,当高温持续日数达3日开始,开花期减产程度开始大于灌浆期。随着高温持续日数增加,早稻和中稻孕穗期产量减幅较小,而开花期和灌浆期减产则显著增加。当发生相同持续日数高温热害时,早稻减产仍是灌浆期最大,孕穗期最小;中稻在高温强度小于34℃时,各发育阶段减产情况与早稻近似,当高温强度达34℃时开始,开花期减产程度略大于灌浆期,孕穗期减产仍为最小,所以温度强度较大的高温对中稻花期的影响更为严重。随着高温强度增加,早稻产量损失逐渐增加;中稻在温度较低时,减产幅度也随温度增加明显,但当高于某一温度后,减产幅度的增加减小。在不同强度和持续日数的高温影响下,一日的高温天气对早稻和中稻减产影响不大,随着高温强度和持续日数的增加,各发育阶段产量损失基本成线性关系递减。在相同生长条件下,早稻和中稻孕穗期受高温影响减产较小,开花期和灌浆期受高温影响减产较大,中稻的减产幅度一般要略大于早稻,且中稻更易遭受较严重的高温热害影响。
3、对比分析平均气象条件及实际气象条件下的水稻产量,从时间变化上来看,早稻减产率波动变化较为明显,减产年份占研究总年份的52.2%,产量减少较多的几个年份是67年、71年、78年、88年和94年;中稻减产率波动要小于早稻,但减产年份要明显多于早稻,占总年份的69.6%,产量损失较明显的年份是67年、78年、94年、95年、03年及06年。从空间分布来看,在60年代,长江中下游北部部分地区,早稻有5～6年出现了减产,在70、80和90年代,减产出现年数大部分地区均在3～4年之间,到2000年以后,研究地区东北部大部分地区又有5～6年出现了减产;中稻在60年代,大部分地区减产年数出现较多,南部部分地区有7～9年出现减产,在70年代和90年代,在北部大部地区有5～6年出现减产,在80年代,西部大部分地区则出现了3～4年的减产,到2000年以后,研究区域东部部分地区又出现了5～6年的减产。
4、高温天气多发的典型年份,水稻产量损失十分显著,无论早稻还是中稻减产率值最高均达30%以上,且减产区域多以重度灾害分布为主。其中,1967年高温对中稻产量的影响要大于早稻;1978年早稻和中稻受高温影响减产区域比较接近;1994年高温对早稻产量的影响范围明显大于中稻,而2003年则是中稻受高温影响程度明显大于早稻。在相同的高温年份,中稻的最大减产率值一般要大于早稻。因此总的来说,高温热害对中稻的不利影响大于早稻。
The currently global climate has being experienced a significant change characterized as warming up. Varying temperature changed the environmental conditions of agricultural production, and the agro-meteorological disasters which were induced by high temperature effect on crop yield was also increasingly prominent. How to ensure national food security and the stable development of agricultural production was a challenge facing humanity. In this context, it has strong practical significance to assess the impact of climate change caused by hot damage on agricultural production in China. This paper based on the meteorological data of the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River and the growth period data of rice. Applying statistical analysis, the intensity, frequency and temporal-spatial variation of hot damage was investigated and the high-risk period of high temperature was defined. In order to establish the regional model database, field observations were used to calculate and calibrate the cultivar genetic parameters by put into WOFOST crop model. Then, according to the impacts of high temperature on rice growth, the crop model was improved appropriately. In Different growth periods with the impact of hot damage, the improved model was used to simulate the yield of early rice and medium rice. Meanwhile, the rice yield in both actual weather conditions and average weather conditions were simulated to be contrasted. Using the yield reduction rate as the hot damage evaluation index, the paper assessed the impact of high temperature damage for rice in the lower and middle reaches of Yangtze River. The main results in the article would be presented as following:
1. Frequent damage of high temperature weather was occurred in most parts of the southern Yangtze River, but in the western and northeastern regions were relatively less. The high temperature days of maximum temperature≥35℃were more in Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang provinces, and the main high-value areas were in Guixi, Zhangshu, Ji’an of Jiangxi and Lishui, Jinhua of Zhejiang. In addition to the above areas, the high temperature days of average temperature≥30℃also occurred frequently in Jiayu, Huangshi of Hubei. High temperature year is mainly in 1966, 1967, 1971, 1978, 1988, 1994, 1995 and 2003.
2. During all developmental stages of rice, when the same intensity hot damage occurred, the level of early rice production cuts were filling stage the maximum, flower stage the second and booting stage the minimum. When the temperature was 30℃, yield decline of both medium rice and early rice were the same. While when the temperature rises to 35℃and the high temperature continuously over 3 days, the medium rice yield of flowering stage was more sensitive to continuous days of higher temperature, and the drop in yield should be greater than the degree of filling stage. As the number of high temperature days continued to increase, the early and medium rice yield of booting stage reduced little, while the yield of flowering and filling stage decreased more significantly. When the same frequency heat damage occurred, the production cuts of early and medium rice were larger than that at filling stage. But when the temperature was high than 34℃, the falling yield of medium rice at flowering stage was greater than that at filling stage, which means that higher temperature strength greater impact on medium rice at flowering period. With the high temperature strength increased, yield loss of early rice also gradually increased. While for medium rice, when temperature was low, the yield reduction increased significantly, but when it is beyond some temperature, the increase in yield reduction would reduce. Under the same growth conditions, the reduced production rate of medium rice was generally larger than early rice, and medium rice was more vulnerable to more serious high temperature weather.
3. Compared the rice yield in average weather conditions with actual weather conditions. Changing from the time, the fluctuation of yield reduction rate of early rice was more significant. The years of obvious early rice yield loss were 1967, 1971, 1978, 1988 and 1994. While the fluctuation of medium rice yield was less than that of early rice, but the number of years in which yield declined was much more than that of early rice. The medium rice yield were reduced in1967, 1978, 1994, 1995, 2003, and 2006. Changing from the spatial distribution, in parts of the northern Yangtze River region, the underproduction of early rice presented between 5~6 years in the 60s. And in the 70’s, 80’s and 90’s, the underproduction of most districts occurred between 3~4 years, moreover the south areas has 7~9 years to present the yield loss. After the 2000 the most regions of northeast experienced production cuts between 5~6 years. In the 60's, medium rice yield was most seriously affected between 7~9 years in the south region. In the 70’s and 90’s, the cut yield occurred in parts of northern areas between 5~6 years. And there was 3～4 years of yields reduction in most west area in 80’s. Up to 2000, production cut between 5~6 years appeared in the eastern region.
4. In these years which high temperature weather occurred more frequently, yield reduction rate of both early rice and medium rice were more than 30% and there were significant regions of severe disasters. In addition, high temperature days in 1967 had more serious influences on medium rice yield than that of early rice. In 1978, the hot damage regions of early rice were close to that of medium rice. In 1994, high temperature effect on early rice yield was stronger than medium rice yield. While the high temperature in 2003 affected medium rice more seriously than early rice. Generally, in the same high temperature year, the maximum yield reduction rate of medium rice was larger than early rice.
引文
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