基于危险率分析的风浪参数联合设计标准研究
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摘要
近年来,随着石油的开发,发现大型油田的概率越来越小,边际油田的开发越来越受到重视。但是,由于经济效益低,边际油田的开发一直很缓慢。如何在保证安全性的基础上降低开发成本成为各国研究的重点。
本论文利用渤海海域长期观测资料和后报资料的,对于渤南油气田某点进行采样分析,利用二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型,对资料进行统计分析,提出针对该点的极值风速和有效波高二维联合设计标准。并且,基于二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型,进行危险率分析,最终提出基于危险率分析的风速与波高联合设计值。这种设计值的确定方法,合理的降低了传统的工程设计参数值,在保证安全性的基础上,达到降低成本的目的,提高了边际油田的开发率。
本文在前人的基础上,主要介绍了各种分布模型的特征,并且基于二维逻辑冈贝尔分布,提出了风浪联合概率设计标准。本文主要包括下几个方面的工作:
1、系统的总结概括了几种常见的单要素极值分布模型,以及各模型所对应的参数估计方法。归纳了现有的二维联合概率模型。
2、以渤海海域为例,介绍了环境条件后报模型,以及模型检验的相关内容,其中包括了对于环境资料的概述总结、水文气象参数极值模型的选择以及对于极值分析中符号的规定。通过对渤海海域环境条件的分析,得出渤南油气田长期观测资料后报结果。
3、运用ANSYS建立某平台模型进行荷载计算,从而拟合适用于该海区的倾覆力矩与波高、风速关系式。
4、基于渤南油气田长期观测资料后报结果,选取极值波高对应风速和极值风速对应波高两个样本模型,验证二维逻辑冈贝尔分布的适用性,并提出风浪联合设计标准。
5、在利用二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型的基础上,给出考虑危险率分析时,风速与波高联合设计值,可以在保证安全的基础上大大的降低边际油田开发成本。
In recent years, with the development of oil, there is less and less chance to found the large oil field, so, researchers pay more and more attention to the exploitation of the marginal oil field. However, due to low economic efficiency, the development of marginal oil field was very slow. How to reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security become a national focus of research.
In this thesis, it use Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution to analyze the long-term observations and subsequent retribution data of a simple point, and then give the maximum wind speed and significant wave height two dimensional joint design standards of this point. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. Compare with the traditional method, this method reduce the parameter design values which should reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security.
The main content of this study is as follows:
1. Summarize several common extreme value distribution model of one elements systemicly, at the same time, introduce the corresponding parameter estimation method for every distribution. Summarize the existing two-dimensional joint probability model.
2. Take the Bohai Sea area as an example, describes the environmental conditions subsequent retribution models and model checking, including an overview of environmental information, selection of hydro-meteorological parameters model, the rule of extreme analysis. Take the Bohai Sea Area as an example, give subsequent retribution data the long-term observations.
3. Establish the marine platform model with ANSYS software, and fit a formula for a specific sea area.
4. Select the extreme wave height and corresponding wind speed, the extreme wind speed and corresponding wave height model as the two samples to verify the applicability of Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution and proposed joint design storm standards.
5. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. This method not only ensure security but also reduce the development cost of the marginal oil field.
本论文利用渤海海域长期观测资料和后报资料的,对于渤南油气田某点进行采样分析,利用二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型,对资料进行统计分析,提出针对该点的极值风速和有效波高二维联合设计标准。并且,基于二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型,进行危险率分析,最终提出基于危险率分析的风速与波高联合设计值。这种设计值的确定方法,合理的降低了传统的工程设计参数值,在保证安全性的基础上,达到降低成本的目的,提高了边际油田的开发率。
本文在前人的基础上,主要介绍了各种分布模型的特征,并且基于二维逻辑冈贝尔分布,提出了风浪联合概率设计标准。本文主要包括下几个方面的工作:
1、系统的总结概括了几种常见的单要素极值分布模型,以及各模型所对应的参数估计方法。归纳了现有的二维联合概率模型。
2、以渤海海域为例,介绍了环境条件后报模型,以及模型检验的相关内容,其中包括了对于环境资料的概述总结、水文气象参数极值模型的选择以及对于极值分析中符号的规定。通过对渤海海域环境条件的分析,得出渤南油气田长期观测资料后报结果。
3、运用ANSYS建立某平台模型进行荷载计算,从而拟合适用于该海区的倾覆力矩与波高、风速关系式。
4、基于渤南油气田长期观测资料后报结果,选取极值波高对应风速和极值风速对应波高两个样本模型,验证二维逻辑冈贝尔分布的适用性,并提出风浪联合设计标准。
5、在利用二维逻辑冈贝尔分布模型的基础上,给出考虑危险率分析时,风速与波高联合设计值,可以在保证安全的基础上大大的降低边际油田开发成本。
In recent years, with the development of oil, there is less and less chance to found the large oil field, so, researchers pay more and more attention to the exploitation of the marginal oil field. However, due to low economic efficiency, the development of marginal oil field was very slow. How to reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security become a national focus of research.
In this thesis, it use Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution to analyze the long-term observations and subsequent retribution data of a simple point, and then give the maximum wind speed and significant wave height two dimensional joint design standards of this point. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. Compare with the traditional method, this method reduce the parameter design values which should reduce the development cost bast on ensuring security.
The main content of this study is as follows:
1. Summarize several common extreme value distribution model of one elements systemicly, at the same time, introduce the corresponding parameter estimation method for every distribution. Summarize the existing two-dimensional joint probability model.
2. Take the Bohai Sea area as an example, describes the environmental conditions subsequent retribution models and model checking, including an overview of environmental information, selection of hydro-meteorological parameters model, the rule of extreme analysis. Take the Bohai Sea Area as an example, give subsequent retribution data the long-term observations.
3. Establish the marine platform model with ANSYS software, and fit a formula for a specific sea area.
4. Select the extreme wave height and corresponding wind speed, the extreme wind speed and corresponding wave height model as the two samples to verify the applicability of Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution and proposed joint design storm standards.
5. By using the Bivariate Gumbel Logistic Distribution, this thesis offer a new joint design standard of wind and wave based on hazard rate anslysis. This method not only ensure security but also reduce the development cost of the marginal oil field.
引文
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[2]赵声振.对我国海上边际油田开发价值预期的反思.国际石油经济, 2004, 12(8): 50-55.
[3]刘建忠,万小迅,张滨海,万军.渤海海域边际油田开发模式探讨.石油科技论坛,2010, 5: 48-50.
[4]李宏伟,谭家华.近海边际油田开发的现状与前景.中国海洋平台,1997,12(3): 100-106.
[5]方国洪,王骥,贾绍德,等.海洋工程中极值水位估计的一种条件分布联合概率方法.海洋科学集刊,1993,(34): 1-29.
[6]王骥,方国洪.不完整逐时潮汐观测记录的分析.海洋学报,1981,3(2): 193-210.
[7]方国洪,王骥.计算潮位频率分布的一个条件概率方法.港口工程技术规范学术论文集,1987,115-118.
[8] Pugh D T, Vassie J M. Extreme sea levels from tide and surge probability. Proceedings of the 16th Coastal Engineering Conference, 1978, 911-929.
[9]金光炎,水文统计原理与方法.北京:水利电力出版社, 2010, 5: 48-50.
[10] American Petroleum Institue (API). Planning, designing and constructing fixed offshore platforms-Load and resistance factor design. 1995, 127-128.
[11] Zachary S, Feld G, Ward G, et al. Multivariate extrapolation in the offshore environment [J]. Applied Ocean Research, 1998, 20(3): 273-295.
[12] Shi J G. Liu D F, Wang Z. The joint long-term distribution of design environmental factors for offshore structures[J]. Acta Oceanologica Sinica, 1993, 12(3) : 465-474.
[13] Shi J G, Moment estimation for multivariate extreme value distribution[J]. Applied Mathematics-A Journal of Chinese University, 1995, 10B: 61-68.
[14]仇学燕,王朝,秦崇仁.多元极值概率分析方法在海洋工程中的应用现状[J].海洋工程,2001,19(30):91-95.
[15]段忠东,肖仪清,欧进萍,等.海洋环境要素的极值联合概率分布.大型复杂结构体系的关键科学问题及设计理论研究论文集.上海:同济大学出版社,2000,231-238.
[16]魏宗叙译.统计学数学方法.上海:上海科技出版社, 1966: 184-197.
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