基于Multi-Agent的供应链不确定性仿真研究
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摘要
随着社会经济的快速发展,供应链竞争演变为经济竞争的主流。然而供应链运作过程中存在着大量的不确定性因素,对企业的供应链绩效和管理有着很大影响。如何管理和控制供应链运作过程中的不确定性,并对其产生机理与控制机制进行深入系统地研究,对企业的供应链管理模式的改进和企业的市场竞争力的提升具有重要意义。
首先,根据供应链系统的复杂性特征,本文运用复杂自适应系统理论分析了供应链运作的模式,并建立了供应链不确定性分析模型,分析了供应链不确定性的来源、后果和供应链管理不确定性的重要因素。其次,根据面向对象建模的分析思想和Multi-Agent思想,本文建立了具有可拓展性供应链不确定性Swarm仿真模型,并对不确定因素进行了仿真模拟分析和运用统计分析方法进一步分析供应链不确定性因素的影响,进而为企业的供应链管理提供决策支持。最后,运用粒子群优化算法对供应链库存策略进行优化设计。
本文尝试运用复杂系统理论、管理学、优化思想和仿真技术,并结合已有的供应链不确定性管理理论、方法和结论对供应链不确定性进行研究,联系了多学科的理论知识和多种研究方法,促进了多学科的交叉和渗透,是对供应链研究理论和技术的丰富和发展;同时本文建立的基于Swarm的供应链仿真模型是对企业信息系统的功能扩展,并运用实际参数进行模拟实验,为供应链管理提供决策支持。
With the rapid development of the social economy, competition of supply chain has become the mainstream of the economic competition. However, a great deal of uncertainty factors existed in the process of the supply chain have a great influence on the supply chain function and management of enterprises. That how to manage and control the uncertainties in the supply chain operation and how to in-depth and systematic research into the generation mechanism and the control mechanism of the uncertainties is very important for implement supply chain management pattern and enhancing the market competition of enterprises.
Firstly, according to the complexity characteristic of supply chain system, the paper analyses supply chain operations model by the complex adaptive system(CAS) theory, and constructs the analytic model of the supply chain uncertainty, and analyzes the origin of supply chain uncertainty, consequences and the important factors of supply chain management uncertainty. Secondly, according to the object-oriented modeling ideology and the Multi-Agent thought, the article establishes a expandable swarm simulation of supply chain uncertainty, and simulates the model and analyzes the simulation result, and further researches influences of supply chain uncertainty with statistical methods, and then gives decision supports to supply chain management. Finally, the paper optimizes the supply chain inventory strategy with the particle swarm optimization algorithm.
The paper researches supply chain uncertainty by CAS theory, principles of management, optimization thought and simulation technology in combine with the existing supply chain uncertainty management, methods and conclusions. The article links the multi-disciplinary theory and multiple research methods, and promotes the relation theory and penetration among different subjects, these are the enrichment and development of supply chain research theory and technology. At the same time, Supply chain simulation model established on Swarm is the function expansion of enterprise information system,the paper carry out the simulation experiments with actual parameters, give the decision support to supply chain management.
首先,根据供应链系统的复杂性特征,本文运用复杂自适应系统理论分析了供应链运作的模式,并建立了供应链不确定性分析模型,分析了供应链不确定性的来源、后果和供应链管理不确定性的重要因素。其次,根据面向对象建模的分析思想和Multi-Agent思想,本文建立了具有可拓展性供应链不确定性Swarm仿真模型,并对不确定因素进行了仿真模拟分析和运用统计分析方法进一步分析供应链不确定性因素的影响,进而为企业的供应链管理提供决策支持。最后,运用粒子群优化算法对供应链库存策略进行优化设计。
本文尝试运用复杂系统理论、管理学、优化思想和仿真技术,并结合已有的供应链不确定性管理理论、方法和结论对供应链不确定性进行研究,联系了多学科的理论知识和多种研究方法,促进了多学科的交叉和渗透,是对供应链研究理论和技术的丰富和发展;同时本文建立的基于Swarm的供应链仿真模型是对企业信息系统的功能扩展,并运用实际参数进行模拟实验,为供应链管理提供决策支持。
With the rapid development of the social economy, competition of supply chain has become the mainstream of the economic competition. However, a great deal of uncertainty factors existed in the process of the supply chain have a great influence on the supply chain function and management of enterprises. That how to manage and control the uncertainties in the supply chain operation and how to in-depth and systematic research into the generation mechanism and the control mechanism of the uncertainties is very important for implement supply chain management pattern and enhancing the market competition of enterprises.
Firstly, according to the complexity characteristic of supply chain system, the paper analyses supply chain operations model by the complex adaptive system(CAS) theory, and constructs the analytic model of the supply chain uncertainty, and analyzes the origin of supply chain uncertainty, consequences and the important factors of supply chain management uncertainty. Secondly, according to the object-oriented modeling ideology and the Multi-Agent thought, the article establishes a expandable swarm simulation of supply chain uncertainty, and simulates the model and analyzes the simulation result, and further researches influences of supply chain uncertainty with statistical methods, and then gives decision supports to supply chain management. Finally, the paper optimizes the supply chain inventory strategy with the particle swarm optimization algorithm.
The paper researches supply chain uncertainty by CAS theory, principles of management, optimization thought and simulation technology in combine with the existing supply chain uncertainty management, methods and conclusions. The article links the multi-disciplinary theory and multiple research methods, and promotes the relation theory and penetration among different subjects, these are the enrichment and development of supply chain research theory and technology. At the same time, Supply chain simulation model established on Swarm is the function expansion of enterprise information system,the paper carry out the simulation experiments with actual parameters, give the decision support to supply chain management.
引文
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【3】林勇,马士华.集成化供应链管理[J].工业工程与管理,1998(5):26-27.
【4】Benita M. Supply Chain Design and Analysis: Models and Methods[J]. International Journal of Production Economics,1998,55:281-294.
【5】田宇,朱道立.物流联盟的形成机理研究[J].物流技术,2001(2):34-36.
【6】张涛,孙林岩,孙海虹.供应链的系统运作模式分析与建模——基于复杂自适应系统范式的研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2003,23(11):8-13.
【7】G.N.Evans,D.R. Towill. Business Process Reengineering the Supply Chain[J]. Production Planning & Control,1995,6(3):227-237.
【8】黄河,但斌,刘飞.供应链的研究现状及发展趋势[J].工业工程,2001,4(1):16-20.
【9】陈安等.虚拟供应链体系结构和运作模式研究[J].工业工程与管理,2000,5(5):46-48.
【10】孙小丽.不确定性环境下适应性供应链网络的构建[D].中国海洋大学硕士学位论文.2004:1-3.
【11】Escudero,Galindo. A modeling framework for supply chain management under uncertainty[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1999,119(1):4-34(21).
【12】Fynes,Bāārca. Environmental uncertainty,supply chain relationship quality and performance[J]. Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2004,10(4-5):179-190.
【13】Guillāān,Bagajewicz. Multi-objective supply chain design under uncertainty[J].Chemical Engineering Science,2005,60(6):1535-1553.
【14】LEE H.L.. The bullwhip effect in supply chains[J]. Sloan Management Review,1997(1):93-102.
【15】Sterman. The beer distribution game in games and exercises for operations management[J]. Prentice Hall,Englewood Cliffs,1995,NJ:101-112.
【16】Chen F,Drezner Z. Quantifying the bullwhip in a simple supply chain: the impact offorecasting,lead times,and information[J]. Management Science,2000,46(3):436-43.
【17】Disney,Towill. The effect of vendor managed inventory(VMI)dynamics on the Bullwhip Effect in supply chains[J]. International journal of Production economics,85(2003):199-215.
【18】张钦,达利庆,沈厚才.在ARIMA(0,1,1)需求下的牛鞭效应与信息共享的评价[J].中国管理科学,2003,9(6):1-6.
【19】马新安,张列平,田澎.长鞭效应的实质与弱化措施[J].中国管理科学,2000(8):61-68.
【20】傅烨,郑绍廉.供应链中的“牛鞭效应”——成因及对策分析[J].管理工程学报,2005,16(1):82-83.
【21】万杰,李敏强,寇纪松.供应链中分配机制对牛鞭效应的影响研究[J].系统工程学报,2004,17(4):340-348.
【22】卢震,黄小原.具有不确定性需求的供应链牛鞭效应的随机控制[J].东北大学学报(自然科学版),2003(4):393-396.
【23】雷星晖,朱琳婕.缓解供应链中牛鞭效应的策略及方案.同济大学学报(自然科学版), 2004(11):1540-1544.
【24】Gérard P. Cachon,Taylor Randa. In Search of the Bullwhip Effect[J].Manufacturing & Service Operations Management,2007,9(4):457-479.
【25】Luh,Chen D. Modeling uncertainty in job shop scheduling[J].First International Conference on Operations & Quantitive Management,1997:490-497.
【26】李平,顾幸生.用GA算法解不确定条件下JobShop的提前/拖期调度问题[J].华东理工大学学报,2002,20(4):44-48.
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