补偿性教育、人力资本深化与中国农业发展
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摘要
农业在经济发展过程中发挥着至关重要的作用,是保障粮食安全、减少农村贫困以及国民经济可持续发展的基础。针对中国农村劳动力选择性转移所导致的“农业人力资本浅化”现象,农业发展研究的核心问题应是积极提高6.5亿农村劳动力的素质,促进农业增长,转变农业发展模式,实现农业的现代化。依据边际收益递减规律和自然资源禀赋的制约,传统农业生产要素包括土地、未经培训的劳动力和物质资本难以成为现代农业持续增长的源泉,因而农村人力资本的改善是解决农业资源短缺、提高农业生产率的关键。而人力资本的改善则主要体现在受教育程度方面。人口受教育程度与农业生产活动之间有很强的经验性规律,农业现代化程度越高,则通过正规教育获得的技能对农业生产的影响越大。由于乡城经济和教育结构的二元性以及农村教育的外溢性,中国农村劳动力教育水平相对较低,因而在一定阶段,需要对农村教育进行补偿,以突破人力资本瓶颈,保持农业人力资本和农业发展的良性互动。
补偿性教育、人力资本深化与中国农业发展是一个涉及经济发展、农村问题、人力资本、教育投资、区域经济、战略规划等多领域、多学科的复杂经济发展问题。为了透彻分析这一问题,在对国内外相关文献进行大量检索和梳理的基础上,本研究首先吸收经济学、教育学、统计学等学科知识精华和方法精华,基于中国国情,宏观研究和微观研究、演绎推理与归纳推理、规范研究与实证研究等方法相互结合,相互补充,从探讨农业发展理论、农业发展过程及其决定因素入手,分析人力资本深化与农业发展之间的关系、人力资本影响农业发展的路径；基于中国所处的工业化中期特征,引入“补偿性教育”这一经济变量,对补偿性教育对人力资本深化的影响、补偿性教育政策的均衡条件、中国补偿性教育的政策设计等问题进行逐层研究,并使之有效地整合于“补偿性教育、农村人力资本深化与中国农业发展”这一研究主线之下。
论文首先用中国2002-2011年省际面板数据分析了我国农业发展所处阶段以及现阶段影响我国农业发展的关键要素。我国目前农业发展过程中,物质要素投入仍然是农业产出增长的主要源泉,人力资本虽然对农业产出有积极作用,但其对影响效应明显小于物质要素,中国仍然处于低人力资本与低技术匹配的低均衡发展阶段。其次,通过对中国河南省和美国堪萨斯州的调查研究数据对比分析了教育在不同农业环境下的作用,结果验证了舒尔茨(Schultzs)的论断：教育对现代农业的影响大于其对传统农业的影响。在贝克尔(Becker)的人力资本理论框架下引入“公共教育”变量,分析了公共教育影响生育率和人力资本的条件。当父母人力资本水平超过临界值,才会选择对子女的人力资本投资。在经济发展的低级阶段,由于父母人力资本很低,父母投资人力资本的意愿不足,公共教育可能是摆脱贫困的唯一出路；相反,在经济发展的高级阶段,社会人力资本水平普遍提高的条件下,公共教育投资对私人教育投资有挤出效应,会提高生育率,阻碍经济增长。从卢卡斯(Lucas)新经济增长理论出发,将“补偿性教育”这一变量引入斯坦博格(Stackelberg)主从博弈模型,分析了二元经济条件下补偿性教育影响人力资本积累和农业增长的最优均衡条件。结果显示补偿性教育只有在半均衡条件下才能达到最优,补偿性教育并不是保持农业产量长期增长的充分必要条件。在论文最后一部分,在分析总结发达国家和发展中国家补偿性教育经验的基础上,提出了中国农业补偿性教育的目标、对象、内容、教育体系和资源保障等。
本研究的可能创新点是,首次在国内将“补偿性教育”作为经济影响变量引入农业发展过程分析中,求解了补偿性教育影响人力资本和农业发展的均衡条件,为中国补偿性教育政策的制定提供了有效的理论支持；基于国内外经验所提出的中国补偿性教育政策对我国农业发展和农村教育政策的制定有十分重要的决策参考价值。
Agriculture plays a vital role in the process of economic development. It is the basic foundation of guaranteeing food security, reducing rural poverty and keeping the national economy sustainable development. One of the most serious issue in the research of China's agricultural development is to improve the quality of6.5billion rural labor force, complete the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, from traditional rural areas to modern ones, and in the mean time, to transfer the rural agricultural surplus labor force orderly amd gradually to urban industrial and service sectors, thereby to improve the farmers'income steadily and continuously. According to the law of diminishing marginal returns and the endowment of natural resources, the conventional agricultural production factors such as land, capital and labor without training must not be the source of modern agricultural growth. Therefore, the improvement of agricultural human capital is and will be the key to solving the problem of agricultural resources shortage and low agriculture productivity. Based on the human capital theory, the human capital improvement is mainly reflected in the level of education. There are strong empirical regularities between education level and agricultural production activities. The higher the level of agricultural modernization is, the more the effects of acquired skills through formal education on agricultural production will be. Owning to the dual economic and educational structure between rural and urban areas and spillover effect of rural education as well as the slower technology innovation and the low demand elasticity of skilled labors in agriculture, in the stage of industrialization, it is a must to subsidize rural education in order to keep the benign interaction between agricultural human capital and agricultural development.
By absorbing the essence of both knowledge and methodology in sociology, education, economics, statistics and other disciplines, the paper adopts comprehensive methods to analyze the path and features of agricultural development, figure out its determinants, discuss the relationship between human capital deepening and agricultural development, and then further studies the effects of subsidized education on human capital and agricultural development. Finally, based on the literature review of internatonal subsidized education, the policy system of how to improve the rural educational quality by subsidized education are designed and put forward, all of which are effectively integrated into the title of "Subsized Education, Rural Human Capital Deepening and China's Agricultural Development".
The thesis is organized as follows. Firstly, by adopting China's provincial panel data in2002-2011, the current China's agricultural development stage is estimated and evalutated. Also the determinant elements in agricultural development are analyzed. The results show that physical input is still the main source of agricultural output growth in recent China. Even though human capital works on agricultural output positively, the effect was much smaller than the physical inputs. The overall agriculture is still in the stage of "Low Equlibrium" featured by "Lower human capital being matched with low technical level". Secondly, based on the questionnaire of Henan Province in China and that of Kansas State in the U.S., the role of education in different agricultural environment is observed. The statistics imply that education plays a greater role in dynamic agricultural environment than that in rather tradional, static, and underdevelopmental environment. Following it, by using Becker's human capital model, the paper analyses the effect of free public education on fertility and human capital accumulation at different stages of economic development. The model shows that when fertility is endogeous, parental human capital levels are crucial for determing the effect of free education. At early stages of development when parental human capital is low, free eccesss to education may provide the only chance to leave poverty; In contrast, at advanced stages of development when parental human capital is high, the availability of free education crowds out private educational investments, stimulates fertility and impedes growth. Next, on the ground of Lucas Model, with the consideration of subsidized educational, government as policy leaders and individuals as followers, the paper develops an endogenous growth model under the transitional economic environment. Using Stackelberg Game Theory, the influential mechanism of subsidized education on the human capital and agricultural development is explored. The results show that only in a semi-stationary equilibrium, the policy of subsidized education can reach its optimism. Subsidized education can not and will never be the sufficient condition to the long-term agricultural development. In the end of the paper, based on the empirical subsidized education in both developing and developed countries, China's current subsidized education policy are suggested including educational aim, subjects, contents, educational systems, etc.
The main innovative points of the thesis might be the first adoption of the term in China-"Subsidized Education" in the analysis of agricultural development, which will contribute to the economic developmental theory and enrich its application in developing countries. The related policy suggestions of subsidized education at the end of this study will be of great value to China's agricultural development and rural education.
补偿性教育、人力资本深化与中国农业发展是一个涉及经济发展、农村问题、人力资本、教育投资、区域经济、战略规划等多领域、多学科的复杂经济发展问题。为了透彻分析这一问题,在对国内外相关文献进行大量检索和梳理的基础上,本研究首先吸收经济学、教育学、统计学等学科知识精华和方法精华,基于中国国情,宏观研究和微观研究、演绎推理与归纳推理、规范研究与实证研究等方法相互结合,相互补充,从探讨农业发展理论、农业发展过程及其决定因素入手,分析人力资本深化与农业发展之间的关系、人力资本影响农业发展的路径；基于中国所处的工业化中期特征,引入“补偿性教育”这一经济变量,对补偿性教育对人力资本深化的影响、补偿性教育政策的均衡条件、中国补偿性教育的政策设计等问题进行逐层研究,并使之有效地整合于“补偿性教育、农村人力资本深化与中国农业发展”这一研究主线之下。
论文首先用中国2002-2011年省际面板数据分析了我国农业发展所处阶段以及现阶段影响我国农业发展的关键要素。我国目前农业发展过程中,物质要素投入仍然是农业产出增长的主要源泉,人力资本虽然对农业产出有积极作用,但其对影响效应明显小于物质要素,中国仍然处于低人力资本与低技术匹配的低均衡发展阶段。其次,通过对中国河南省和美国堪萨斯州的调查研究数据对比分析了教育在不同农业环境下的作用,结果验证了舒尔茨(Schultzs)的论断：教育对现代农业的影响大于其对传统农业的影响。在贝克尔(Becker)的人力资本理论框架下引入“公共教育”变量,分析了公共教育影响生育率和人力资本的条件。当父母人力资本水平超过临界值,才会选择对子女的人力资本投资。在经济发展的低级阶段,由于父母人力资本很低,父母投资人力资本的意愿不足,公共教育可能是摆脱贫困的唯一出路；相反,在经济发展的高级阶段,社会人力资本水平普遍提高的条件下,公共教育投资对私人教育投资有挤出效应,会提高生育率,阻碍经济增长。从卢卡斯(Lucas)新经济增长理论出发,将“补偿性教育”这一变量引入斯坦博格(Stackelberg)主从博弈模型,分析了二元经济条件下补偿性教育影响人力资本积累和农业增长的最优均衡条件。结果显示补偿性教育只有在半均衡条件下才能达到最优,补偿性教育并不是保持农业产量长期增长的充分必要条件。在论文最后一部分,在分析总结发达国家和发展中国家补偿性教育经验的基础上,提出了中国农业补偿性教育的目标、对象、内容、教育体系和资源保障等。
本研究的可能创新点是,首次在国内将“补偿性教育”作为经济影响变量引入农业发展过程分析中,求解了补偿性教育影响人力资本和农业发展的均衡条件,为中国补偿性教育政策的制定提供了有效的理论支持；基于国内外经验所提出的中国补偿性教育政策对我国农业发展和农村教育政策的制定有十分重要的决策参考价值。
Agriculture plays a vital role in the process of economic development. It is the basic foundation of guaranteeing food security, reducing rural poverty and keeping the national economy sustainable development. One of the most serious issue in the research of China's agricultural development is to improve the quality of6.5billion rural labor force, complete the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture, from traditional rural areas to modern ones, and in the mean time, to transfer the rural agricultural surplus labor force orderly amd gradually to urban industrial and service sectors, thereby to improve the farmers'income steadily and continuously. According to the law of diminishing marginal returns and the endowment of natural resources, the conventional agricultural production factors such as land, capital and labor without training must not be the source of modern agricultural growth. Therefore, the improvement of agricultural human capital is and will be the key to solving the problem of agricultural resources shortage and low agriculture productivity. Based on the human capital theory, the human capital improvement is mainly reflected in the level of education. There are strong empirical regularities between education level and agricultural production activities. The higher the level of agricultural modernization is, the more the effects of acquired skills through formal education on agricultural production will be. Owning to the dual economic and educational structure between rural and urban areas and spillover effect of rural education as well as the slower technology innovation and the low demand elasticity of skilled labors in agriculture, in the stage of industrialization, it is a must to subsidize rural education in order to keep the benign interaction between agricultural human capital and agricultural development.
By absorbing the essence of both knowledge and methodology in sociology, education, economics, statistics and other disciplines, the paper adopts comprehensive methods to analyze the path and features of agricultural development, figure out its determinants, discuss the relationship between human capital deepening and agricultural development, and then further studies the effects of subsidized education on human capital and agricultural development. Finally, based on the literature review of internatonal subsidized education, the policy system of how to improve the rural educational quality by subsidized education are designed and put forward, all of which are effectively integrated into the title of "Subsized Education, Rural Human Capital Deepening and China's Agricultural Development".
The thesis is organized as follows. Firstly, by adopting China's provincial panel data in2002-2011, the current China's agricultural development stage is estimated and evalutated. Also the determinant elements in agricultural development are analyzed. The results show that physical input is still the main source of agricultural output growth in recent China. Even though human capital works on agricultural output positively, the effect was much smaller than the physical inputs. The overall agriculture is still in the stage of "Low Equlibrium" featured by "Lower human capital being matched with low technical level". Secondly, based on the questionnaire of Henan Province in China and that of Kansas State in the U.S., the role of education in different agricultural environment is observed. The statistics imply that education plays a greater role in dynamic agricultural environment than that in rather tradional, static, and underdevelopmental environment. Following it, by using Becker's human capital model, the paper analyses the effect of free public education on fertility and human capital accumulation at different stages of economic development. The model shows that when fertility is endogeous, parental human capital levels are crucial for determing the effect of free education. At early stages of development when parental human capital is low, free eccesss to education may provide the only chance to leave poverty; In contrast, at advanced stages of development when parental human capital is high, the availability of free education crowds out private educational investments, stimulates fertility and impedes growth. Next, on the ground of Lucas Model, with the consideration of subsidized educational, government as policy leaders and individuals as followers, the paper develops an endogenous growth model under the transitional economic environment. Using Stackelberg Game Theory, the influential mechanism of subsidized education on the human capital and agricultural development is explored. The results show that only in a semi-stationary equilibrium, the policy of subsidized education can reach its optimism. Subsidized education can not and will never be the sufficient condition to the long-term agricultural development. In the end of the paper, based on the empirical subsidized education in both developing and developed countries, China's current subsidized education policy are suggested including educational aim, subjects, contents, educational systems, etc.
The main innovative points of the thesis might be the first adoption of the term in China-"Subsidized Education" in the analysis of agricultural development, which will contribute to the economic developmental theory and enrich its application in developing countries. The related policy suggestions of subsidized education at the end of this study will be of great value to China's agricultural development and rural education.
引文
① 陈佳贵,中国工业化进程报告——1995-2005年中国省域工业化水平评价与研究M,北京：社会科学文献出版社,2010：19-43。
② 中共中央关于农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定,2008年10月12日中国共产党第十七届中央委员会第三次全体会议通过。
④ 依据朱艳丽、张永利的“中国人口增长预测模型及其改进”的数据整理,统计与决策,2010,(16)：20.25.
⑦ 蔡防认为,2013年是人口红利消失的转折点,具体内容参见http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2012_04/03/13630997_0.shtml
⑧ 参见http://data.worldbank.org/topic/agriculture-and-rural-developent.
11 范丽霞,李谷成,唐海燕.转变农业发展方式的理论内涵与实现途径—基于经济学的视角[J].农业现代化研究.2011,32(5)：52.
12 资料来源:Psycharopoulos,G. Returns to Education:Research and Studies[J]. Journal of Human Resources, 1985,20(4):583-604.
13 参见李志俊.选择性转移、人力资本深化与内生农业发展[D].西安：陕西师范大学,2012
14 根据《中国统计年鉴2010》有关数据计算得出。
15 参见中国全民教育国家报告.2005,11
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② 中共中央关于农村改革发展若干重大问题的决定,2008年10月12日中国共产党第十七届中央委员会第三次全体会议通过。
④ 依据朱艳丽、张永利的“中国人口增长预测模型及其改进”的数据整理,统计与决策,2010,(16)：20.25.
⑦ 蔡防认为,2013年是人口红利消失的转折点,具体内容参见http://news.ifeng.com/mainland/detail_2012_04/03/13630997_0.shtml
⑧ 参见http://data.worldbank.org/topic/agriculture-and-rural-developent.
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13 参见李志俊.选择性转移、人力资本深化与内生农业发展[D].西安：陕西师范大学,2012
14 根据《中国统计年鉴2010》有关数据计算得出。
15 参见中国全民教育国家报告.2005,11
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