高速公路隧道交通流模型与应急交通控制预案研究
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摘要
随着中国高速公路建设逐步由平原地区向山区延伸，长隧道、特长隧道的数量逐年增加，隧道路段的交通安全及应急交通控制问题日益受到重视。开展突发事件条件下的高速公路隧道应急交通控制应急预案相关研究，提高应急预案的实用性与有效性，对完善并加强高速公路隧道突发事件的应急处置工作具有积极意义。论文从高速公路隧道微观交通流建模与仿真，高速公路隧道突发事件分类分级方法及其影响分析，隧道突发事件应急交通控制策略与预案生成方法，以及隧道应急交通控制预案评估等四个方面展开高速公路隧道交通流模型与应急交通控制预案研究。
（1）针对高速公路隧道微观交通流建模与仿真问题，论文从公路隧道交通工程等级划分、隧道交通工程设施配置等角度入手，分析高速公路隧道影响车辆通行的各种因素，在单车道元胞自动机模型NS模型基础上，提出一种考虑限速及环境影响的高速公路隧道单车道交通流微观模型；在双车道元胞自动机模型STNS模型基础上，提出一种高速公路隧道双车道交通流微观模型。通过数值模拟，分析了隧道作为高速公路上影响正常交通流的一类交通瓶颈对隧道区域路段流量以及平均车速的影响，仿真结果表明高速公路隧道会降低相应路段平均车速，并对交通流起到平滑作用。
（2）针对现有高速公路突发事件分类方法中未包含能够预期的诸如节假日车辆通行、道路养护等会对高速公路正常交通流产生影响的事件问题，提出了一种基于事件发生状态的高速公路隧道突发事件分类方法，将突发事件分为已对正常交通产生不利影响的危机事件与尚未发生的预警事件两类；针对现有高速公路突发事件分级方法中通常以一些在事件发生之初不易确定的影响指标进行响应或预警分级，且现有分级方法无法涵盖高速公路日常突发事件问题，提出一种在现有突发事件四级分级方法基础上增加日常突发事件的五级高速公路隧道突发事件分级方法，并结合论文中提出的隧道交通流模型分析了交通事故等突发事件对高速公路正常交通流的影响。
（3）针对现有应急交通控制预案无法充分利用已有应急交通控制相关历史经验的问题，论文在研究了高速公路隧道基本交通控制策略组成的基础上，提出一种结合范例推理与规则推理两种推理机制的公路隧道突发事件交通控制策略生成方法，增强了应急预案的实用性与有效性，并在二维高速公路隧道交通控制诱导仿真平台中对应急交通控制预案生成方法的实用性进行了模拟分析。
（4）针对应急交通控制预案评估问题，论文分析了高速公路隧道突发事件交通控制应急预案的前评估与后评估方法，建立了一种基于层次分析-模糊综合评价的高速公路隧道应急交通控制预案评价指标体系，给出了指标权重及具体评价方法，并对高速公路隧道应急交通控制预案实例进行了评价，验证了评价方法的有效性与可行性。
在论文的最后部分，对以上工作进行了总结，并展望了进一步研究方向。
With the extending from plain region to mountainous area of China's freewayconstruction projects, the number of long tunnels and extra-long tunnels is increasing year byyear. As the special sections of mountainous freeway, the studies of traffic safety and trafficcontrol under emergency have always been concerned. Especially traffic control strategies offreeway tunnels under emergencies and related emergency plan researches, which can perfectand strengthen the incident emergency disposal work of mountainous area freeway tunnels.This dissertation carries out the study on freeway tunnel traffic flow model and emergencytraffic control strategies research from four aspects, including the microscopic traffic flowmodeling and simulation of freeway tunnels, the classification and grading methods offreeway emergencies, the generation method of emergency traffic control strategies offreeway tunnel, and the evaluation of tunnel emergency traffic control plans.
(1) To model and simulate the microscopic traffic flow in freeway tunnels, variousfactors which influenced the status of vehicles’ in freeway tunnels were analyzed, from theangles of traffic engineering hierarchies and facilities allocation of freeway tunnels, and asingle lane traffic flow microscopic model based on the single lane cellular automatamodel--NS model was put forward, considering the speed limit and the environmental impactof freeway tunnels. Also, based on the two-lane cellular automata model--STNS model, atwo-lane traffic flow microscopic model of freeway tunnels was put forward, considering bothsymmetric lane-changing rules and asymmetric lane-changing rules. Through the numericalsimulation, as the traffic bottleneck in freeway, the influence of tunnels on the traffic flow andthe vehicles’ average speed of tunnel area were analyzed, and the simulation results show thatfreeway tunnels can reduce the vehicles’ average speed of the corresponding sections, and hasa smoothing effect to the traffic flow.
(2) In order to solve the problem that the existing freeway emergency classificationmethod does not contain the incidents which not only can bring impacts on the normalfreeway traffic flow, but also can be anticipated, such as holiday traffic and road maintenance projects, based on the predictability of incidents, a novel freeway emergency classificationmethod was put forward, which divided the freeway incidents into two kinds including crisisevents and early warning events. For the problems that the existing freeway emergencygrading method was usually based on some index which were difficult to determine at thebeginning of the incident, and the method cannot cover freeway daily emergencies, a novelfreeway emergency grading method, which added a fifth grade named daily incidents to thefour grades of existing grading method, was put forward, and the emergency influence on thenormal freeway traffic flow were analyzed from the angle of emergency traffic control.
(3) As the existing emergency traffic control plan can't make full use of the historicalexperience in existing emergency traffic control, based on the study of freeway tunnel basictraffic control strategies, a novel traffic control strategy generating method for freeway tunnelemergencies was put forward, which combined two kinds of reasoning mechanism ofcase-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning. This method can strengthen the practicabilityand effectiveness of emergency plans, and the traffic control strategy generating method weresimulated and analyzed in a2D simulation platform for freeway tunnel traffic control andguidance.
(4) For the evaluation of emergency traffic control plans, two comprehensive indexsystems of plan evaluation were put forward. One is to evaluate the emergency plan beforeimplementation, the other is to evaluate after implementation. The emergency traffic controlplan disposal process were analyzed based on the application of network in projectmanagement, and the relationships of the emergency disposal process were analyzed throughthe network critical path analysis, and finally the emergency traffic control planimplementation effect was evaluated.
In the end of this dissertation, conclusions and prospects were given.
（1）针对高速公路隧道微观交通流建模与仿真问题，论文从公路隧道交通工程等级划分、隧道交通工程设施配置等角度入手，分析高速公路隧道影响车辆通行的各种因素，在单车道元胞自动机模型NS模型基础上，提出一种考虑限速及环境影响的高速公路隧道单车道交通流微观模型；在双车道元胞自动机模型STNS模型基础上，提出一种高速公路隧道双车道交通流微观模型。通过数值模拟，分析了隧道作为高速公路上影响正常交通流的一类交通瓶颈对隧道区域路段流量以及平均车速的影响，仿真结果表明高速公路隧道会降低相应路段平均车速，并对交通流起到平滑作用。
（2）针对现有高速公路突发事件分类方法中未包含能够预期的诸如节假日车辆通行、道路养护等会对高速公路正常交通流产生影响的事件问题，提出了一种基于事件发生状态的高速公路隧道突发事件分类方法，将突发事件分为已对正常交通产生不利影响的危机事件与尚未发生的预警事件两类；针对现有高速公路突发事件分级方法中通常以一些在事件发生之初不易确定的影响指标进行响应或预警分级，且现有分级方法无法涵盖高速公路日常突发事件问题，提出一种在现有突发事件四级分级方法基础上增加日常突发事件的五级高速公路隧道突发事件分级方法，并结合论文中提出的隧道交通流模型分析了交通事故等突发事件对高速公路正常交通流的影响。
（3）针对现有应急交通控制预案无法充分利用已有应急交通控制相关历史经验的问题，论文在研究了高速公路隧道基本交通控制策略组成的基础上，提出一种结合范例推理与规则推理两种推理机制的公路隧道突发事件交通控制策略生成方法，增强了应急预案的实用性与有效性，并在二维高速公路隧道交通控制诱导仿真平台中对应急交通控制预案生成方法的实用性进行了模拟分析。
（4）针对应急交通控制预案评估问题，论文分析了高速公路隧道突发事件交通控制应急预案的前评估与后评估方法，建立了一种基于层次分析-模糊综合评价的高速公路隧道应急交通控制预案评价指标体系，给出了指标权重及具体评价方法，并对高速公路隧道应急交通控制预案实例进行了评价，验证了评价方法的有效性与可行性。
在论文的最后部分，对以上工作进行了总结，并展望了进一步研究方向。
With the extending from plain region to mountainous area of China's freewayconstruction projects, the number of long tunnels and extra-long tunnels is increasing year byyear. As the special sections of mountainous freeway, the studies of traffic safety and trafficcontrol under emergency have always been concerned. Especially traffic control strategies offreeway tunnels under emergencies and related emergency plan researches, which can perfectand strengthen the incident emergency disposal work of mountainous area freeway tunnels.This dissertation carries out the study on freeway tunnel traffic flow model and emergencytraffic control strategies research from four aspects, including the microscopic traffic flowmodeling and simulation of freeway tunnels, the classification and grading methods offreeway emergencies, the generation method of emergency traffic control strategies offreeway tunnel, and the evaluation of tunnel emergency traffic control plans.
(1) To model and simulate the microscopic traffic flow in freeway tunnels, variousfactors which influenced the status of vehicles’ in freeway tunnels were analyzed, from theangles of traffic engineering hierarchies and facilities allocation of freeway tunnels, and asingle lane traffic flow microscopic model based on the single lane cellular automatamodel--NS model was put forward, considering the speed limit and the environmental impactof freeway tunnels. Also, based on the two-lane cellular automata model--STNS model, atwo-lane traffic flow microscopic model of freeway tunnels was put forward, considering bothsymmetric lane-changing rules and asymmetric lane-changing rules. Through the numericalsimulation, as the traffic bottleneck in freeway, the influence of tunnels on the traffic flow andthe vehicles’ average speed of tunnel area were analyzed, and the simulation results show thatfreeway tunnels can reduce the vehicles’ average speed of the corresponding sections, and hasa smoothing effect to the traffic flow.
(2) In order to solve the problem that the existing freeway emergency classificationmethod does not contain the incidents which not only can bring impacts on the normalfreeway traffic flow, but also can be anticipated, such as holiday traffic and road maintenance projects, based on the predictability of incidents, a novel freeway emergency classificationmethod was put forward, which divided the freeway incidents into two kinds including crisisevents and early warning events. For the problems that the existing freeway emergencygrading method was usually based on some index which were difficult to determine at thebeginning of the incident, and the method cannot cover freeway daily emergencies, a novelfreeway emergency grading method, which added a fifth grade named daily incidents to thefour grades of existing grading method, was put forward, and the emergency influence on thenormal freeway traffic flow were analyzed from the angle of emergency traffic control.
(3) As the existing emergency traffic control plan can't make full use of the historicalexperience in existing emergency traffic control, based on the study of freeway tunnel basictraffic control strategies, a novel traffic control strategy generating method for freeway tunnelemergencies was put forward, which combined two kinds of reasoning mechanism ofcase-based reasoning and rule-based reasoning. This method can strengthen the practicabilityand effectiveness of emergency plans, and the traffic control strategy generating method weresimulated and analyzed in a2D simulation platform for freeway tunnel traffic control andguidance.
(4) For the evaluation of emergency traffic control plans, two comprehensive indexsystems of plan evaluation were put forward. One is to evaluate the emergency plan beforeimplementation, the other is to evaluate after implementation. The emergency traffic controlplan disposal process were analyzed based on the application of network in projectmanagement, and the relationships of the emergency disposal process were analyzed throughthe network critical path analysis, and finally the emergency traffic control planimplementation effect was evaluated.
In the end of this dissertation, conclusions and prospects were given.
引文
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