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制度、人力资本与中国农村剩余劳动力转移
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摘要
近期中国经济发展中出现了一些新情况,如人地矛盾的加剧、创新型国家战略的实施、新农村建设战略的实施、新一轮农村制度改革的启动、民工荒的出现、城市化率过半等;也产生了很多新的问题,如三农问题、农业可持续发展的问题、制造业危机问题、城乡差距不断加大的问题、农村人力资本存量日益减少的问题等。这些现象与问题都与农村剩余劳动力转移过程有着密切的关系,农村剩余劳动力转移问题再次引起理论界的关注。中国的转移过程伴随着制度转型的过程,制度限制和人力资本限制让农村的可持续发展和城乡迁移过程变得更加复杂。所以本文从制度分析与人力资本两个角度讨论转移过程,并对农村剩余劳动力转移中出现的新现象和新问题作出分析。
     关于发展中国家农村剩余劳动力转移问题的研究存在结构主义和新古典主义之间的争论,结构主义聚焦于发展中国家经济中存在的价格刚性、劳动力过剩、资本等的不足、无限供给弹性等特征,强调经济的非渐进性、非连续和非均衡性,突出了宏观结构的作用。新古典主义则聚焦于城乡工资差、预期收益、理性选择、效用最大化、生产要素流动等概念,以个体或家庭为分析单位,强调通过市场的边际调整和对市场的修补达到经济均衡,突出了微观选择的影响。
     关于中国农村剩余劳动力转移问题研究的争论有:农村剩余劳动力的定义与数量之争、产生原因与影响因素之争、城市化滞后与超前之争、刘易斯转折点之争、就地转移与异地转移之争等。在理论框架上似乎一边倒地选择了结构主义。中国经济具备了非瓦尔拉斯均衡的相关特征,结构主义更适合中国的经济现实。但是本文认为,中国的农村剩余劳动力转移有其特殊性,转移过程伴随着转型过程,所以制度因素非常重要,不能被剥离出分析框架之外。
     本文先利用各种统计数据和调研资料描述了中国农村剩余劳动力转移现状。如农村剩余劳动力总量、性别分布、年龄分布、职业分布、接受教育和培训情况、收入水平、就业信息获取方式、输入地输出地分布、居住情况、消费情况、权益保障情况等。然后把中国与其他国家和地区的转移过程和特征做比较。发现中国的转移过程呈现出一些独特的规律:城乡差距较大、存量大、转移迅速;产业间的转移和地域间的转移不一致;转移质量低,收入无法维持在城市的基本生存;人力资本禀赋低;永久迁移规模小等。这些特殊规律用二元经济理论无法全部作答。也就是说,二元经济理论在解释中国农村剩余劳动力转移问题时一定遗漏了一些特别重要的变量,找到这些变量,中国农村剩余劳动力转移过程中的特征就更容易把握。这些变量就是制度与人力资本。
     影响中国农村剩余劳动力转移的强制性制度包括:国家发展战略(重工业优先战略、城市优先战略、生产优先战略、创新型国家战略)、土地、户籍、就业、社会保障、住房保障制度等。重工业优先造成工业吸纳劳动力数量有限;城市优先造成农村的落后;生产优先造成对城市基础设施投资较少,国家必须把农民留在农村从而减少消费需求;创新型国家战略忽视了农村剩余劳动力的经济地位是劳动力市场均衡的结果、忽视了产业必须符合要素禀赋的问题。土地制度中人民公社的土地公有制造成了农业生产的破坏,导致了逆城市化;家庭联产承包责任制导致土地零碎化,不利于现代生产要素流入农业。户籍制度导致产业转移和地域转移无法一致,客观上造成了以牺牲转移质量换取转移数量突破的转移方式。就业制度导致农村剩余劳动力就业质量低和农民工劳动力市场的缺失。社会保障制度缺失导致转移后劳动保护不足,失去了社会安全网的庇护。住房保障制度缺失导致转移后的居住条件非常差。
     在这些制度限制面前农村剩余劳动力自发进行了自下而上的诱致性制度创新和出于降低成本的经济行为选择来弥补转移过程中制度供给的不足。这些制度创新或经济行为选择包括:乡镇企业制度、家庭联产承包责任制等土地制度创新、农民工(劳动力价格双轨制)、物物交换、“隐性补贴”、“城中村”居住等。
     在制度和结构因素占主导地位时,人力资本对农村剩余劳动力的工资决定和就业状况影响不显著,在劳动密集型产业和非正规部门就业的转移方式导致对人力资本投资激励的不足,他们面对一条“S型的人力资本投资曲线”。民工荒的出现、工资的上涨、刘易斯第一转折点的到来,让中国有了回归新古典主义的条件,意味着人力资本开始成为工资决定的主要因素,城乡人力资本投资差距意味着农村剩余劳动力又处于不利的竞争条件下。
     在引入对制度和人力资本的分析后,本文建立了“二元市场与二元劳动力”模型。农村剩余劳动力进入次要市场,由于“两栖式”转移、“隐性补贴”、“城中村”居住等原因,农村剩余劳动力有成本优势,所以城市居民不愿进入;城市居民由于制度优势和人力资本优势而进入主要劳动力市场,面临少数高技能农村劳动力的微弱竞争。转移过程中的强制性制度障碍、诱致性制度变迁后的路径锁死都限制着跨市场流动。跨市场流动的可能性是农村剩余劳动力工资上升,农民工(劳动力价格双轨制)、“隐性补贴”、“城中村”等现象消失或转移者人力资本禀赋上升。
     刘易斯短缺点的到来为跨市场流动创造了条件,它引起本文最后的讨论,即如何创造一个一元的劳动力市场。为了迎接一元劳动力市场的到来,不但要克服强制性制度的障碍;还要通过提高转移质量,进行人力资本投资、产业转移、产业结构调整等,克服诱致性制度变迁带来的路径锁死。为了促进先进的生产要素流入农业,农业产业化、农业技术革新都要进一步推进,只有这样,才能真正消除城乡差距,让产业之间的劳动力不受任何限制地自由流动,实现高质量转移。
     本文的创新点在于尝试建立的“二元市场与二元劳动力”转移模型,并重点讨论了转移中的诱致性制度变迁,讨论了一元劳动力市场的可能性与条件,对人力资本在转移过程中的各个阶段中的作用进行了分析。
It happended some new events in China's recent economic development, such as the contradiction between farmer and cultivated land, the implementation of the Innovation-oriented Country Strategy, the implementation of New rural construction strategy, new rural reform, the shortage of peasant-worker and urbanization rate exceed more than half, etc. It also produced a lot of new problems, such as "Three Rural Issues", sustainable development of agriculture, manufacturing crisis, increasing income gap between city and rural, the decrease of rural human capital stock and so on. These phenomena and problems are close related to the transfer of rural surplus labor. But the dual economic theory doesn't tell us all the answers of these questions. China's transfer process along with the process of switching to a market economy, The institution limitation and human capital limitation made the process of transfer more complicated both in the sustainable development of the rural areas and in the transfer process of rural surplus labor. This paper, from the two aspects, the institution and human capital, discuss the transfer of rural surplus labor process, and the author will analyse the new phenomena and problems appeared in the transfer process.
     Structuralism and neoclassicism has been controversial on research about rural surplus labor transfer in developing countries. Structuralism focus on those widely existing characteristics such as rigidity, surplus, scarcity and high elasticity of supply etc.It pays more attention to non-progressive, non-continuous and disequilibrium, and highlights the influence of macrostructure. Individual or family was often used as analysis unit in neoclassicism; they focus on the concepts of wage difference between urban and rural areas, expected earning, rational choice, utility maximization and the flow of production factors, etc. It emphasizes economic equilibrium through marginal adjustment and market repair. The theory mainly highlights influence of microeconomic choice. China's economy has non-walrasian equilibrium characteristics. Structuralism is more suitable for China's economic reality.
     The debate of China's rural surplus labor transfer research are focus on the definition and the number of rural surplus labor, the cause and influence factors, urbanization lag or over-urbanization, Lewis turning point, local transfer or migration transfer, etc. The theoretical framework all seems to lean to the structuralism. But this paper argues that China's surplus rural labor transfer has its particularity, the transfer process mixed with the economical transformation process, so the institution factors are very important, and cannot be stripping out of the analysis framework.
     By use of various statistical data and survey data, this paper objectively described the transfer current situation of rural surplus labor in China, such as the total number of rural surplus labor, gender and age distribution, vocational distribution, education and training situation, income level, employment information acquisition modes, input and output region distribution, living situation, consumption level, rights and interests protection situation, etc.. Then, the auther compared these characteristic with the other countries and regions', and find some special rules in the transfer of rural surplus labor in China. They are the great income gap between city and rural, the big stock of rural surplus labor, the rapid transfer speed; inconsistency of industrial transfer and regional transfer; extremely low transfer quality; income can't afford of city consumption; very low human capital endowment of the rural surplus labor; small permanent migration scale, etc.. The dule economic theory cannot explain all these special rules. The reason possibly is that the theory missed some special important variables. The two important missing variable factors are institution and human capital which can explain the unique characteristics in the process of the Chinese transfer to great extent.
     In this paper, the discussion of institution is divided into two parts, mandatory institution obstacles and induced institutional innovation. Mandatory institution which influence China's rural surplus labor transfer includes National Development Strategies (heavy industry preferred strategy, city priority strategy, production priority strategy, Innovation-oriented Country Strategy), land institutions, household registration institutions, employment institutions, social security institutions and housing security institutions, etc.. Heavy industry preferred strategy has caused the demand of rural surplus labor decrease. City priority strategy has caused the backward of rural development. Production priority strategy has caused shortage in urban infrastructure investment. Peasants must have been left in rural areas so as to reduce the consumption demand. Innovation-oriented Country Strategy ignored both the economic status of the rural surplus labor is the result of equilibrium and the industry adjustment must conform to the factor endowment. The people's commune institution seriously destructed the agricultural production and led to anti-urbanization. The household contract responsibility system made the land fragmentized. It against the modern production elements invested into agricultural. The household registration system brought about the inconsistency of industrial transfer and regional transfer. It sacrificed transfer quality for transfer quantity breakthrough. Employment institution led to the low employment quality of rural surplus labor, they were obliged to employ in informal sector. It also led to the lack of peasant-workers'labor market. Social security institution led to lack of labor protection and the welfare subvention when rural surplus labor entered into the city. Peasant-workers'life was embarrassed without the shield of social safety net. In the face of these institution limits, Chinese rural surplus labor made many institution innovations instead. Those innovations included the township enterprise institution, the household contract responsibility institution and other land institution innovation,"Peasant workers", bartered between each other,"recessive allowances","Village in city" dwelling style, etc..
     When the institutional factor and the structure factors predominated in the Wage determination of rural surplus labor force, human capital's influencd is limited. The rural surplus labor force confronted a "S type of human capital investment curve" Human capital investment incentives are not enough in labor-intensive industries and the field of informal department's employment. Now, China has the conditions to apply to neoclassical development economics, with the emergence of the shortage of "peasant-workers", wage inflation and the arrival of the first "Lewis turning point" These phenomena means that the human capital investment has become the main factor of wage determination.Gap between urban and rural human capital investment means that the rural surplus labor been in competition conditions adverse again.
     Introducing the analysis of institutions and human capital, this paper summarized the model of Chinese rural surplus labor transfer as "dual market and dual labor force". As a result of "amphibious transfer","recessive allowances","village in city" dwelling style and other reasons, the rural surplus labor force has a cost advantage after they swarm into the secondary market. This is the reason why the urban residents are not willing to enter into the secondary market. Instead, urban residents enjoy institution and human capital superiority when they enter into the primary labor market. They are facing with a weak competition aroused by the few high-skilled rural surplus labor. Mandatory institution obstacles and the path deadlock caused by induced institutional change are all restricting the flow between two markets. With the rise of rural surplus labor wage and the reducing of "peasant-workers","recessive allowances","Village in the City", or the improving of human capital endowment, the possibility of free flow across markets will be enhanced in the near future.
     "the First Lewis turning point" created the conditions for the flow across the market,it also drive the finally discussion of this paper on how to create "the unitary labor market".Not only do we need to overcome the compulsory institution obstacles with the aid of continuous reform on the household registration institution, land institution and social security institution;but aslo need we to overcome path deadlock caused by the induced institution change, to improve the quality of transfer, these strategies include human capital investment, the upgrading of the industrial structure etc. Only in these ways, will we meet the arrival of "the unitary labor market" in the future. In order to stimulate the advanced production elements investing into agriculture, we need to carry out the agriculture industrialization, agricultural technological innovation and the New Rural Construction. Thus, we can truly eliminate the gap between urban and rural areas, let labor free flow between each industrial sectors without any restrictions, finally realize the target of high quality transfer of the rural surplus labor.
     The innovation of this paper is that it established a "dual market and dual Labour" transfer model. Then it discussed the induced institution changes happened in the transfer of rural surplus labor force. It aslo made a deep discussion on the possibility and conditions of "Unitary Labour market" and analysised the different function that human capital made in every stage of transfer process.
引文
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