中国城市增长、效率及其影响因素研究
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摘要
城市增长是世界性现象,但中国的城市增长在改革开放后的30年表现的更为明显。城市化处于加速发展阶段,城市化水平从1977年的17.55%增长到2008年的43%左右,越来越多的农村人口已经迁移到城市。城市建成区的规模扩展更加迅速,城市建成区的面积已从1985年的9386平方公里增加到2007的35469平方公里,增加了278%。
在中国城市快速增长的同时,如何保持其可持续性发展存在着诸多问题,基于此,本文选取城市增长作为研究课题,目的是解释城市增长、阐述增长的原因、提出未来城市增长的政策建议。
本文遵循管理科学研究的一般范式,即文献综述、研究设计、数据分析与数据处理的讨论等环节。
首先论文在介绍城市增长的静态Thǔnen模型和Alonso-Mills-Muth模型,动态的Capozza and Helsley模型等理论模型的基础上,提出了一个基于中国情境的城市增长模型,该模型解释了中国城市快速增长的原因。
其次,论文运用面板单位根与面板协整以及空间计量经济学的方法,利用29个省区的1997～2007年城市建成区等有关数据,全面分析了影响中国城市增长的因素,研究发现:城市建成区序列与GDP、FDI、固定资产投资序列存在协整关系,GDP、FDI、固定资产投资等是影响中国城市增长的重要因素,而且这种影响呈现出空间外溢的特点。
通过二阶段方法,利用DEA与Tobit模型分析了中国城市增长的效率及其影响因素。研究发现:中国城市增长在1997～2007年间都是无效率的,其平均值没有达到0.55,但其整体趋势是递增的,研究还表明东部城市发展效率大于西部城市的发展效率。
最后,论文提出中国城市增长的五点政策建议:第一,需要转变经济增长方式,从粗放式发展到集约型经济发展;第二,城市需要转变增长方式,努力实践理性增长;第三,面向可持续增长的中国城市发展,需要优化区域治理的模式,需要探索丰富多彩的治理途径;第四,进行土地制度改革,建立城乡统一的土地制度,并探讨适宜中国城市化发展的土地利用制度;第五,征收财产税,重建地方财政体系,使土地财政成为历史。
Urban growth is a worldwide phenomenon; however China’s urban growth has been more obvious during the past 30 years after reform and opening up. The urbanization is in the accelerated developing stage and its level increased from 17.55 percent in 1977 to nearly 43 percent in 2008. More and more people have migrated from rural area to urban. Urban sprawl is more rapid that the urban built-up area increased from 9386 square kilometers in 1985 to 35469 square kilometers in 2007, which equals a 278% of increase.
While China's rapid growth of cities does, how to maintain its sustainable development has many problems. This paper selects the urban growth to take the research subject to explain the reasons for the growth and put forward policy recommendations for the future urban growth.
The paper follows management science research paradigm that includes literature review, research design, data analysis and data processing.
Firstly, based on models about urban growth, such as static models, the Thǔnen model and the Alonso-Mills-Muth model as well as dynamic model, the Capozza model and the Helsley model, the paper puts forward a urban growth model in China, this model can explain the cause of rapid growth of city in China.
Secondly, according to methods of panel unit root, panel cointegration test and spatial econometrics, this paper makes an overall analysis on factors affecting urban growth. The results indicate that the sequence of urban built-up area with GDP, FDI, Investment of fixed assets are cointegrated and GDP、FDI and Investment of fixed assets are key factors affecting urban growth. Besides, these effects exhibit spatial spillovers.
Using the two-stage method, DEA and TOBIT model, this paper gives an analysis of China’s urban growth efficiency and its influencing factor. The research finds out that China’s urban growth is inefficient between 1997 to 2007 as the average level is below 0.55 despite the general tendency is to increase. It also shows that the efficiency of growth in eastern cities is higher than that of western cities.
At the end, the paper offers some advices on China’s urban growth. Firstly, the way of economic growth must be changed from the extensive growth mode to intensive growth mode. Secondly, the mode of urban growth must be more sensible. Thirdly, explore the optimal regional governance mode and variety governance patterns in order to promote China’s sustained development of urban; forth, carry out land reform and establish an unified rural and urban land system, explore an appropriate land use system accompanied with China’s urban development; fifth, impose property tax ,rebuild the sub-national financial system and abandon land financial institution.
在中国城市快速增长的同时,如何保持其可持续性发展存在着诸多问题,基于此,本文选取城市增长作为研究课题,目的是解释城市增长、阐述增长的原因、提出未来城市增长的政策建议。
本文遵循管理科学研究的一般范式,即文献综述、研究设计、数据分析与数据处理的讨论等环节。
首先论文在介绍城市增长的静态Thǔnen模型和Alonso-Mills-Muth模型,动态的Capozza and Helsley模型等理论模型的基础上,提出了一个基于中国情境的城市增长模型,该模型解释了中国城市快速增长的原因。
其次,论文运用面板单位根与面板协整以及空间计量经济学的方法,利用29个省区的1997～2007年城市建成区等有关数据,全面分析了影响中国城市增长的因素,研究发现:城市建成区序列与GDP、FDI、固定资产投资序列存在协整关系,GDP、FDI、固定资产投资等是影响中国城市增长的重要因素,而且这种影响呈现出空间外溢的特点。
通过二阶段方法,利用DEA与Tobit模型分析了中国城市增长的效率及其影响因素。研究发现:中国城市增长在1997～2007年间都是无效率的,其平均值没有达到0.55,但其整体趋势是递增的,研究还表明东部城市发展效率大于西部城市的发展效率。
最后,论文提出中国城市增长的五点政策建议:第一,需要转变经济增长方式,从粗放式发展到集约型经济发展;第二,城市需要转变增长方式,努力实践理性增长;第三,面向可持续增长的中国城市发展,需要优化区域治理的模式,需要探索丰富多彩的治理途径;第四,进行土地制度改革,建立城乡统一的土地制度,并探讨适宜中国城市化发展的土地利用制度;第五,征收财产税,重建地方财政体系,使土地财政成为历史。
Urban growth is a worldwide phenomenon; however China’s urban growth has been more obvious during the past 30 years after reform and opening up. The urbanization is in the accelerated developing stage and its level increased from 17.55 percent in 1977 to nearly 43 percent in 2008. More and more people have migrated from rural area to urban. Urban sprawl is more rapid that the urban built-up area increased from 9386 square kilometers in 1985 to 35469 square kilometers in 2007, which equals a 278% of increase.
While China's rapid growth of cities does, how to maintain its sustainable development has many problems. This paper selects the urban growth to take the research subject to explain the reasons for the growth and put forward policy recommendations for the future urban growth.
The paper follows management science research paradigm that includes literature review, research design, data analysis and data processing.
Firstly, based on models about urban growth, such as static models, the Thǔnen model and the Alonso-Mills-Muth model as well as dynamic model, the Capozza model and the Helsley model, the paper puts forward a urban growth model in China, this model can explain the cause of rapid growth of city in China.
Secondly, according to methods of panel unit root, panel cointegration test and spatial econometrics, this paper makes an overall analysis on factors affecting urban growth. The results indicate that the sequence of urban built-up area with GDP, FDI, Investment of fixed assets are cointegrated and GDP、FDI and Investment of fixed assets are key factors affecting urban growth. Besides, these effects exhibit spatial spillovers.
Using the two-stage method, DEA and TOBIT model, this paper gives an analysis of China’s urban growth efficiency and its influencing factor. The research finds out that China’s urban growth is inefficient between 1997 to 2007 as the average level is below 0.55 despite the general tendency is to increase. It also shows that the efficiency of growth in eastern cities is higher than that of western cities.
At the end, the paper offers some advices on China’s urban growth. Firstly, the way of economic growth must be changed from the extensive growth mode to intensive growth mode. Secondly, the mode of urban growth must be more sensible. Thirdly, explore the optimal regional governance mode and variety governance patterns in order to promote China’s sustained development of urban; forth, carry out land reform and establish an unified rural and urban land system, explore an appropriate land use system accompanied with China’s urban development; fifth, impose property tax ,rebuild the sub-national financial system and abandon land financial institution.
引文
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