中国三线城市房价波动的影响因素分析与政策探讨
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摘要
房地产是国民经济的重要支柱产业,在国民经济中发挥着重要作用。房地产行业稳定的发展对我国的市场经济至关重要,同时对于推动居民消费结构升级、改善民生和社会稳定也具有重要作用。近年来,随着居民可支配收入的提高,以及城市人口的快速增加,使得我国房地产市场发展的速度很快,表现之一就是房价的持续上涨,结果形成目前一线城市房价高的离谱,二线城市房价紧随一线城市房价上涨,三线城市的房价缓慢上涨的格局。总的来说,房价的上涨超出了普通居民的承受能力,制约了居民消费。为此,政府出台了一系列财政政策和货币政策等诸多政策对房价进行调节和控制。
中国三线城市的房地产行业在整个中国房地产行业中占的比重不算很大。在2011年上半年三线城市的房地产市场表现出了销售量下滑相对滞后、价格对政策调控反应更慢,部分三线城市房价小幅上涨的现象,但这并不代表三线城市的房地产市场对于购房者来说就是安全的,原因主要在于三线城市的房地产市场属于滞后性市场,造成销售量下滑偏晚,同样回暖也偏晚,同时价格上涨的不多,同样下跌得也会相对较少等现象。总的来说,三线城市的购房者与开发商在一系列的房价调控政策下,都表现出了较浓厚的观望情绪。
论文以安徽省阜阳市的房地产价格波动作为主要研究对象,分为四个部分来展开问题研究,采用案例分析法与比较分析法相结合的方式,分析得出我国三线城市房地产价格波动的特征及其原因,并以此提出政策建议。
具体为第一部分详细阐述了问题的研究背景及意义,国内外的研究现状以及论文的研究方法、创新和不足之处。论文的主要创新点有两点,第一三线城市房地产价格波动和国家政策对三线城市的影响鲜有学者涉及的原因使得论文研究对象的选取较为新颖；第二、实例的选取,使研究更具有代表性和针对性。
第二部分主要从理论角度解释房地产市场特征,房价波动的原因及其特征,并就房价波动的总体影响因素进行了总结。其中房价波动的特点包括房价波动是经济波动的外在表面形式,房价波动与房地产市场的产业链波动产生共振现象,房价波动易受政策影响使得房地产调控政策能最大程度上刺激房价波动。最后从经济因素、政策因素和其他方面对房价波动的原因进行了简要解释。
第三部分是论文的的重点,本部分以安徽省阜阳市作为我国三线城市的代表进行了详细分析和探讨。分别从阜阳市房地产行业概览、行业特征、阜阳市与一二线城市房地产市场的联系与区别中研究阜阳市房地产价格波动原因并对这些原因进行了分析。在阜阳这样的小城市,资料的统计和整理不比一二线城市,多数资料都是通过实习的便利和市场调查进行收集。文中从房地产市场土地成交面积和房屋销售量两个方面对阜阳市房地产行业进行了综述；从房地产市场的供给与需求两个方面阐述了阜阳房地产市场与一二线城市房地产市场间的联系,从阜阳房地产市场受到国家政策调控影响的明显滞后性、阜阳市房地产市场供给与需求两方面临的金融成本更高、阜阳市房地产市场开发商多为中小型房地产开发企业和阜阳市购房者与一二线城市购房者结构构成不同四个方面重点分析了阜阳市房地产市场与一二线城市房地产市场的区别,综合全文的分析得出了阜阳市房价波动的原因,并进行了分析。
第四部分从政府监管部门、金融部门、开发者和购房者四个角度提出了一些政策建议。
The real estate industry is an important pillar industry of China's economy. And it plays an important role in the national economy. The real estate industry' stable development is very important to China's market economy. And to promote the resident's consumption structure upgrading, improving the livelihood of the people and social stability also has an important role. In recent years, along with China's per acpita consumption level,and the rapid expansion of urban population,China's real estate prices are high way. One of the performances is house prices continue to rise,forming the first-tier cities' house prices high wide of the mark,the second-tier cities' house prices going highing along with the first-tier cities', driving the third-tier citis' house prices slow rising. In general, the rising house prices breaks ordinary resident bear ability and restricted the consumption ability. Therefore, the government issued a lot of fiscal and monetary policy on house prices.
The real estate industry in the third-tier cities has a little occupancy in the whole business.Half past 2011,sales volume of the third-tier citis' decline slowly,house prices response to policy more slowly,some third-tier cities' house prices even going high.But this is not said that the third-tier cities' real estate industry is safe for consumers.Mainly because the market is a lagging market.When the sale volume goes down later,it will go high later too.And because the house pirce hasn't rised highly, the down space is narrow.Overall,facing so many control police,the third-tier cities' consumer show a strong wait-and-see attitude.
The paper's object of study is Fuyang City's house price fluctuation.Divided into four parts to research house price fluctuation using case analysis method and comparative analysis method.Finding the reasons that driving house prices fluctuation and the fluctuation feature.At last,putting forward the according suggestion and measure.
At the first part of the paper,the author describes the background,significance of the study,paper innovation and deficiencies.The paper innovation are little scholars putting their energy on the third-tier cities and the selection of examples making research more representative and pertinence.
The second part,explaining the real estate market, the fluctuation and characteristics of house prices from a theoretical perspective. And summarizing the reasons at last.The fluctuation of house prices includs that house price fluctuation is the surface of external economic fluctuation,house price fluctuation and related to real estate market industry fluctuation have chain resonate phenomenon,house price fluctuation is susceptible to policy influence.Finally explaining the house prices fluctuation reasons from the economic factors and policy factors and other aspects.
The third part is the focus of the paper, this part puts Fuyang city' real esatte market as the representative of the third-tier cities in China and makes a detailed analysis and discussion.This part could be divided into four section,the overview of Fuyang real estate industry, an overview of the real estate industry,the industry character,the relationship and distinguish between the third-tier cities and the first-tier cities, and makes reserch on these objects.Such as Fuyang little city, material statistics and finishing than a second city, most of the material is through the practice of convenience and market research for the collection. Such as material statistics policy fall behand to the first-tier city.Most of the material collected by the author through intern practice and market research.This article introduce Fuyang real estate industry from land sales volume and house sales volume.From supply and demand two aspects in fuyang real estate market explain the relationship between the first-tier city and the third-tier city.From the house price fluctuation response to the policy,the difference cost of the house supplier and demander, the difference company scale,and the difference consumers between the first-tier city and the third-tier city,explaining the difference real estate market between the firs-tier city and the third-tier city.and at last, summing up the reasons which cause the fluctuation difference.
The fourth part propse some suggestions to the government, financial department, developers and the consumer.
中国三线城市的房地产行业在整个中国房地产行业中占的比重不算很大。在2011年上半年三线城市的房地产市场表现出了销售量下滑相对滞后、价格对政策调控反应更慢,部分三线城市房价小幅上涨的现象,但这并不代表三线城市的房地产市场对于购房者来说就是安全的,原因主要在于三线城市的房地产市场属于滞后性市场,造成销售量下滑偏晚,同样回暖也偏晚,同时价格上涨的不多,同样下跌得也会相对较少等现象。总的来说,三线城市的购房者与开发商在一系列的房价调控政策下,都表现出了较浓厚的观望情绪。
论文以安徽省阜阳市的房地产价格波动作为主要研究对象,分为四个部分来展开问题研究,采用案例分析法与比较分析法相结合的方式,分析得出我国三线城市房地产价格波动的特征及其原因,并以此提出政策建议。
具体为第一部分详细阐述了问题的研究背景及意义,国内外的研究现状以及论文的研究方法、创新和不足之处。论文的主要创新点有两点,第一三线城市房地产价格波动和国家政策对三线城市的影响鲜有学者涉及的原因使得论文研究对象的选取较为新颖；第二、实例的选取,使研究更具有代表性和针对性。
第二部分主要从理论角度解释房地产市场特征,房价波动的原因及其特征,并就房价波动的总体影响因素进行了总结。其中房价波动的特点包括房价波动是经济波动的外在表面形式,房价波动与房地产市场的产业链波动产生共振现象,房价波动易受政策影响使得房地产调控政策能最大程度上刺激房价波动。最后从经济因素、政策因素和其他方面对房价波动的原因进行了简要解释。
第三部分是论文的的重点,本部分以安徽省阜阳市作为我国三线城市的代表进行了详细分析和探讨。分别从阜阳市房地产行业概览、行业特征、阜阳市与一二线城市房地产市场的联系与区别中研究阜阳市房地产价格波动原因并对这些原因进行了分析。在阜阳这样的小城市,资料的统计和整理不比一二线城市,多数资料都是通过实习的便利和市场调查进行收集。文中从房地产市场土地成交面积和房屋销售量两个方面对阜阳市房地产行业进行了综述；从房地产市场的供给与需求两个方面阐述了阜阳房地产市场与一二线城市房地产市场间的联系,从阜阳房地产市场受到国家政策调控影响的明显滞后性、阜阳市房地产市场供给与需求两方面临的金融成本更高、阜阳市房地产市场开发商多为中小型房地产开发企业和阜阳市购房者与一二线城市购房者结构构成不同四个方面重点分析了阜阳市房地产市场与一二线城市房地产市场的区别,综合全文的分析得出了阜阳市房价波动的原因,并进行了分析。
第四部分从政府监管部门、金融部门、开发者和购房者四个角度提出了一些政策建议。
The real estate industry is an important pillar industry of China's economy. And it plays an important role in the national economy. The real estate industry' stable development is very important to China's market economy. And to promote the resident's consumption structure upgrading, improving the livelihood of the people and social stability also has an important role. In recent years, along with China's per acpita consumption level,and the rapid expansion of urban population,China's real estate prices are high way. One of the performances is house prices continue to rise,forming the first-tier cities' house prices high wide of the mark,the second-tier cities' house prices going highing along with the first-tier cities', driving the third-tier citis' house prices slow rising. In general, the rising house prices breaks ordinary resident bear ability and restricted the consumption ability. Therefore, the government issued a lot of fiscal and monetary policy on house prices.
The real estate industry in the third-tier cities has a little occupancy in the whole business.Half past 2011,sales volume of the third-tier citis' decline slowly,house prices response to policy more slowly,some third-tier cities' house prices even going high.But this is not said that the third-tier cities' real estate industry is safe for consumers.Mainly because the market is a lagging market.When the sale volume goes down later,it will go high later too.And because the house pirce hasn't rised highly, the down space is narrow.Overall,facing so many control police,the third-tier cities' consumer show a strong wait-and-see attitude.
The paper's object of study is Fuyang City's house price fluctuation.Divided into four parts to research house price fluctuation using case analysis method and comparative analysis method.Finding the reasons that driving house prices fluctuation and the fluctuation feature.At last,putting forward the according suggestion and measure.
At the first part of the paper,the author describes the background,significance of the study,paper innovation and deficiencies.The paper innovation are little scholars putting their energy on the third-tier cities and the selection of examples making research more representative and pertinence.
The second part,explaining the real estate market, the fluctuation and characteristics of house prices from a theoretical perspective. And summarizing the reasons at last.The fluctuation of house prices includs that house price fluctuation is the surface of external economic fluctuation,house price fluctuation and related to real estate market industry fluctuation have chain resonate phenomenon,house price fluctuation is susceptible to policy influence.Finally explaining the house prices fluctuation reasons from the economic factors and policy factors and other aspects.
The third part is the focus of the paper, this part puts Fuyang city' real esatte market as the representative of the third-tier cities in China and makes a detailed analysis and discussion.This part could be divided into four section,the overview of Fuyang real estate industry, an overview of the real estate industry,the industry character,the relationship and distinguish between the third-tier cities and the first-tier cities, and makes reserch on these objects.Such as Fuyang little city, material statistics and finishing than a second city, most of the material is through the practice of convenience and market research for the collection. Such as material statistics policy fall behand to the first-tier city.Most of the material collected by the author through intern practice and market research.This article introduce Fuyang real estate industry from land sales volume and house sales volume.From supply and demand two aspects in fuyang real estate market explain the relationship between the first-tier city and the third-tier city.From the house price fluctuation response to the policy,the difference cost of the house supplier and demander, the difference company scale,and the difference consumers between the first-tier city and the third-tier city,explaining the difference real estate market between the firs-tier city and the third-tier city.and at last, summing up the reasons which cause the fluctuation difference.
The fourth part propse some suggestions to the government, financial department, developers and the consumer.
引文
①周彬,杜两省《财贸经济》2010年第8期“土地财政”与房地产价格上涨：理论分析与实证研究
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[1]郑思齐,刘洪玉.购物中心规划和运作的经济分析[J]商业研究,2003,(18).
[2]郑思齐,刘洪玉.房地产市场有效性研究——以北京和上海为例[J]商业研究,2006,(07).
[3]白霜.房地产价格的决定因素分析——中国31个地区Panel数据的实证研究[J]财经问题研究,2008,(08).
[4]鞠方,欧阳立鹏.我国房地产价格的影响因素及其合理性研究[J]财经理论与实践,2008,(04).
[5]况伟大.房价与地价关系研究：模型及中国数据检验[J]财贸经济,2005,(11).
[6]郑思齐,曹洋,刘洪玉.城市价值在住房价格中的显性化及其政策含义——对中国35个城市住宅价格的实证研究[J]城市发展研究,2008,(01).
[7]段忠东,曾令华,黄泽先.房地产价格波动与银行信贷增长的实证研究[J]金融论坛,2007,(02).
[8]李盛.规划为先房地合一——试论城市土地利用的整体概念[J]城市开发,2001,(Z1).
[9]郑思齐.住房投资与国民经济的协调发展[J]城市开发,2003,(10).
[10]柴强.影响房价的几个理论问题[J]城市开发,2005,(05).
[11]李春吉,孟晓宏.中国房地产市场结构和价格影响因素的实证分析[J]产业经济研究,2005,(06).
[12]段岩燕,曹振良.调控房地产价格的关键——土地和金融[J]当代经济,2005,(02).
[13]刘学成.国外房地产周期研究综述[J]中国房地产,2001,(04).
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