通信行业移动业务市场机制及效率研究
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摘要
市场机制就是市场运行的实现机制。它作为一种经济运行机制,是指市场机制体内的供求、价格、竞争、风险等要素之间互相联系及作用机理。从福利经济学的观点看,效率是指以最小的社会成本代价获得最大的社会经济产出,衡量效率的标准尺度是社会总福利贡献,它包括消费者剩余、生产者剩余和外部性效应等三项指标,其中,消费者剩余处于根本的位置。本文以中国联通为研究实体,移动业务为具体研究对象。对我国通信行业的市场机制和效率中的关键要素——供求、价格、竞争、风险和消费者等进行了深入了的研究。主要研究工作包括:
(1)通过对产业发展的现状分析与梳理,结合PEST分析,探讨了中国联通的移动业务面临的发展机遇、制约因素与存在的问题。在给出移动业务概念描述的基础上,阐述了移动业务的特性与业务运营模式,并详细分析了移动业务运营模式的原型和改进,以及产业价值链升级等方面的问题。
(2)借助国际通用的平衡记分卡的思想,构建了竞争力的评价指标体系,并对世界主要电信企业的竞争力进行了分析研究。依据波特的产业竞争结构理论,通过构建移动业务的收益序列动态结构,提出移动业务产业链竞争风险、同行竞争的战略风险、替代竞争的战略风险的度量分析方法。结合Marshall需求函数估计了移动业务市场的需求关系与需求效应。
(3)由客户视角研究我国通信行业的移动业务机制和效率的情况,包括客户首选运营商的关键因素分析、移动业务客户满意指数、移动业务客户流失预测、移动业务客户序位与维系、移动业务客户感知评价等。
根据客户满意理论,采用PLS路径分析的方法构建移动业务客户满意指数模型,并对相关因子进行实证检验,得出影响移动业务客户满意的重要指标变量;构建了基于贝叶斯网络的客户流失预测模型,并根据实证分析识别了客户离网倾向原因,通过分类的特征分析,得出客户流失规则;构建了基于客户生命周期价值和客户发展潜力的移动业务客户序位评价指标体系,利用K-Means快速聚类算法构建客户序位评价模型,并对客户序位结果给出详细分析和客户维系建议。利用模糊综合评价分析方法,建立了基于客户感知的移动业务评价指标体系,构建评估体系的模糊综合评价模型,很好地诠释了移动业务的发展现状,从而为移动运营商拓展移动业务的发展提供了有力的依据。
(4)阐述了移动业务的定价模式及影响因素,利用博弈论方法在比较宽泛的假设条件下,建立了通信运营商的竞价策略博弈模型。从博弈分析的角度,结合电信市场的市场结构演变,尝试对通信市场的价格竞争对策进行研究,从而对采取或设计出不同的定价模式。通过价值和市场供应量,量化移动业务价值的创造与分配,以具有价格决定权主体博弈移动业务的价格阈值。给出价格动态调节机制关系描述和定价收敛性的一般条件,理论上证明了移动业务价格最终收敛于总体最优边际价格。按照资费套餐的要求,设计资费套餐的评价指标体系,综合分析建立套餐评估模型。
(5)通过上述关于移动业务多方面问题的研究,分别针对移动业务发展的有效途径、客户价值的提升、业务拓展模式、价格资费机制、发展战略等方面提出了合理化的建议或具体的实施策略。
The market mechanism, an economic operational mechanism, in which the function of the market is achieved, refers to the relationship and function of such elements of supply and demand, pricing, competition, risks. From the view point of welfare economics, efficiency refers to the use of the smallest social cost to maximize the socio-economic output. The standard yardstick for measuring the efficiency of the social welfare is the total contribution, including indexes such as the consumer's surplus, producer's surplus and the external effects. Of the three indicators, consumer's surplus is of fundamental importance. This dissertation discusses the development of China Unicom and its mobile business by making deep research into the key factors influencing the market mechanism and efficiency of China Telecom industry such as supply and demand, price, competition, risk and consumers. The main research includes:
(1) Through the analysis of the industry status, together with the PEST analysis on China Unicom, the dissertation discusses the development opportunities, constraints and problems which China Unicom's mobile business faces. On the basis of the given concept of mobile service, the dissertation describes the characteristics of mobile business and the business operation model, and also makes a detailed analysis of the problem of the prototype and the improved model of mobile business operations, the industry value chain and so on.
(2) The study on the beginning of China Unicom's mobile business competitiveness, and access to the China Unicom's preliminary understanding of the impact on the mobile business development by comparison and evaluation of the indicators in specific conditions of the carrier enterprise' competitiveness. By which the study analyzes the situation related to strategic risks of mobile business competition, also estimates the demand relation and effects of mobile business market combined with Marshall Demand function.
(3) Study the mechanism and efficiency of China Unicom's mobile business from the customer's perspective, including the key element analysis of customer choosing China Unicom first, the customer satisfaction index of mobile business, the customer loss forecast of mobile business, the customer order and maintaining of Mobile-business, the customer perceptual evaluation of mobile business.
Using the PLS path analysis to build customer satisfaction index model of mobile business according to the customer satisfaction and positive testing of the relevant factors, which comes to the important indicator variables affect the customer satisfaction of mobile business. Constructing the customer loss forecast model based on Bayesian network to identify the reason of off-grid customers according to case studies, reaching the customer loss rules by the characteristics analysis of classification. Constructing the customer-order evaluation index system of mobile business based on customer lifetime value and customer development potential by using the K-Means clustering fast Algorithm, and giving a detailed analysis of the results of customer order and making recommendations to maintaining customers. Constructing the mobile business evaluation index system based on customer perception by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the evaluation model has a good interpretation of mobile business development status for mobile operators to expand mobile business provides a strong basis.
(4) Expounding on the pricing model and factors of mobile business and constructed the carrier's bidding strategy game model with the relatively broad assumptions using game theory methods. From the perspective of game analysis, combined with the evolution of telecommunications market structure, trying to study the telecommunications market price competition to take countermeasures or design a different pricing model.
Through the creation and distribution of the market supply quantify the value-added business value in order to have the right to decide the price of the main game value-added services price threshold. Given the description relationship between dynamic price adjustment mechanism and the general conditions of the pricing convergence, in theory, it proved that the final price of value-added services in the convergence of optimal marginal overall price. In accordance with the requirements of package rates, designed the evaluation index system of Package fees, combined package model with comprehensive analysis, to evaluate the various tariff packages within its brand and to measure the real value of the package and to cut the little package.
(5) Through the research of the above aspects of mobile business, the dissertation puts forward reasonable proposals or specific measures in terms of the effective development of mobile business, the enhancing of customer value, the model of business expansion, and the price charging mechanisms, and the development strategy and so on.
(1)通过对产业发展的现状分析与梳理,结合PEST分析,探讨了中国联通的移动业务面临的发展机遇、制约因素与存在的问题。在给出移动业务概念描述的基础上,阐述了移动业务的特性与业务运营模式,并详细分析了移动业务运营模式的原型和改进,以及产业价值链升级等方面的问题。
(2)借助国际通用的平衡记分卡的思想,构建了竞争力的评价指标体系,并对世界主要电信企业的竞争力进行了分析研究。依据波特的产业竞争结构理论,通过构建移动业务的收益序列动态结构,提出移动业务产业链竞争风险、同行竞争的战略风险、替代竞争的战略风险的度量分析方法。结合Marshall需求函数估计了移动业务市场的需求关系与需求效应。
(3)由客户视角研究我国通信行业的移动业务机制和效率的情况,包括客户首选运营商的关键因素分析、移动业务客户满意指数、移动业务客户流失预测、移动业务客户序位与维系、移动业务客户感知评价等。
根据客户满意理论,采用PLS路径分析的方法构建移动业务客户满意指数模型,并对相关因子进行实证检验,得出影响移动业务客户满意的重要指标变量;构建了基于贝叶斯网络的客户流失预测模型,并根据实证分析识别了客户离网倾向原因,通过分类的特征分析,得出客户流失规则;构建了基于客户生命周期价值和客户发展潜力的移动业务客户序位评价指标体系,利用K-Means快速聚类算法构建客户序位评价模型,并对客户序位结果给出详细分析和客户维系建议。利用模糊综合评价分析方法,建立了基于客户感知的移动业务评价指标体系,构建评估体系的模糊综合评价模型,很好地诠释了移动业务的发展现状,从而为移动运营商拓展移动业务的发展提供了有力的依据。
(4)阐述了移动业务的定价模式及影响因素,利用博弈论方法在比较宽泛的假设条件下,建立了通信运营商的竞价策略博弈模型。从博弈分析的角度,结合电信市场的市场结构演变,尝试对通信市场的价格竞争对策进行研究,从而对采取或设计出不同的定价模式。通过价值和市场供应量,量化移动业务价值的创造与分配,以具有价格决定权主体博弈移动业务的价格阈值。给出价格动态调节机制关系描述和定价收敛性的一般条件,理论上证明了移动业务价格最终收敛于总体最优边际价格。按照资费套餐的要求,设计资费套餐的评价指标体系,综合分析建立套餐评估模型。
(5)通过上述关于移动业务多方面问题的研究,分别针对移动业务发展的有效途径、客户价值的提升、业务拓展模式、价格资费机制、发展战略等方面提出了合理化的建议或具体的实施策略。
The market mechanism, an economic operational mechanism, in which the function of the market is achieved, refers to the relationship and function of such elements of supply and demand, pricing, competition, risks. From the view point of welfare economics, efficiency refers to the use of the smallest social cost to maximize the socio-economic output. The standard yardstick for measuring the efficiency of the social welfare is the total contribution, including indexes such as the consumer's surplus, producer's surplus and the external effects. Of the three indicators, consumer's surplus is of fundamental importance. This dissertation discusses the development of China Unicom and its mobile business by making deep research into the key factors influencing the market mechanism and efficiency of China Telecom industry such as supply and demand, price, competition, risk and consumers. The main research includes:
(1) Through the analysis of the industry status, together with the PEST analysis on China Unicom, the dissertation discusses the development opportunities, constraints and problems which China Unicom's mobile business faces. On the basis of the given concept of mobile service, the dissertation describes the characteristics of mobile business and the business operation model, and also makes a detailed analysis of the problem of the prototype and the improved model of mobile business operations, the industry value chain and so on.
(2) The study on the beginning of China Unicom's mobile business competitiveness, and access to the China Unicom's preliminary understanding of the impact on the mobile business development by comparison and evaluation of the indicators in specific conditions of the carrier enterprise' competitiveness. By which the study analyzes the situation related to strategic risks of mobile business competition, also estimates the demand relation and effects of mobile business market combined with Marshall Demand function.
(3) Study the mechanism and efficiency of China Unicom's mobile business from the customer's perspective, including the key element analysis of customer choosing China Unicom first, the customer satisfaction index of mobile business, the customer loss forecast of mobile business, the customer order and maintaining of Mobile-business, the customer perceptual evaluation of mobile business.
Using the PLS path analysis to build customer satisfaction index model of mobile business according to the customer satisfaction and positive testing of the relevant factors, which comes to the important indicator variables affect the customer satisfaction of mobile business. Constructing the customer loss forecast model based on Bayesian network to identify the reason of off-grid customers according to case studies, reaching the customer loss rules by the characteristics analysis of classification. Constructing the customer-order evaluation index system of mobile business based on customer lifetime value and customer development potential by using the K-Means clustering fast Algorithm, and giving a detailed analysis of the results of customer order and making recommendations to maintaining customers. Constructing the mobile business evaluation index system based on customer perception by using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and the evaluation model has a good interpretation of mobile business development status for mobile operators to expand mobile business provides a strong basis.
(4) Expounding on the pricing model and factors of mobile business and constructed the carrier's bidding strategy game model with the relatively broad assumptions using game theory methods. From the perspective of game analysis, combined with the evolution of telecommunications market structure, trying to study the telecommunications market price competition to take countermeasures or design a different pricing model.
Through the creation and distribution of the market supply quantify the value-added business value in order to have the right to decide the price of the main game value-added services price threshold. Given the description relationship between dynamic price adjustment mechanism and the general conditions of the pricing convergence, in theory, it proved that the final price of value-added services in the convergence of optimal marginal overall price. In accordance with the requirements of package rates, designed the evaluation index system of Package fees, combined package model with comprehensive analysis, to evaluate the various tariff packages within its brand and to measure the real value of the package and to cut the little package.
(5) Through the research of the above aspects of mobile business, the dissertation puts forward reasonable proposals or specific measures in terms of the effective development of mobile business, the enhancing of customer value, the model of business expansion, and the price charging mechanisms, and the development strategy and so on.
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