投机行为、垄断定价和房地产价格
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摘要
1998年我国结束了传统的福利分房制度,从此与普通家庭息息相关的住房进入了市场化流通的时代。住房市场化使得房地产行业成为我国经济的一个新增长点,保证了通货紧缩时期我国经济的可持续增长,也减轻了长期以来传统福利分房制度给政府和企业带来的沉重负担。然而,由于住房市场化所处的宏观环境(例如长期以来普通居民收入水平不高、相应的制度供给的缺失等)尚不成熟,伴随着住房市场化进程的是一边持续上涨的房价使得普通家庭不堪重负,另一边住房市场不断升温。
本文主要把房地产价格分解成需求和供给两个方面,从市场的需求和供给的角度,分析目前中国房地产价格上涨的原因,同时从经济学上对政府的调控政策做一评价。具体研究的内容主要包括(1)分析目前房地产市场的现状以及呈现如此格局的原因;(2)在(1)的基础上,通过经济模型分析解决这一格局的根本措施,并且对近几年政府调控手段做一评价;(3)从政府行为出发,分析房地产市场是否具有垄断定价或者双重垄断定价的可能,并且提出政策建议。
通过分析,我们认为目前中国房地产市场中:第一投资行为和投机行为挤压了住房市场的购买居住需求,在住房供给不足的情况下,投资行为、投机行为连同大量的潜在需求在支撑房价的长期增长,物业税是抑制过度投资和投机行为的根本调控手段;第二土地制度派生的政府行为以及土地的不连续供给使得政府和房地产开发商具有操纵市场价格的能力。
China had finished the traditional welfare house-allocation system since 1998. From then on housing which is closely linked with the ordinary family entered the market circulation time. The housing market-reform enabled the real estate industry to become a new growth spot in Chinese economy, and has guaranteed our country economy sustainable growth during the deflation time. At the same time housing market-reform reduced the serious burden which the traditional welfare house allocation system brings for the government and the enterprise. However, due to the macroscopic environment that the housing market-reform is facing (for example ordinary inhabitant low income level, corresponding institution supplies deficient) still is not perfect, following the house market advancement the house price continues to rise at the same time to cause the ordinary family to be unable to withstand the heavy burden, meanwhile the real estate industry is expanding rapidly.
This article analyzes reasons about the present house price's rising in market, mainly from the market demand and the supplies views, and makes an appraisal to government's regulative policy from economic view. The specific research mainly includes (1) to analyze the present situation about housing market as well as its reasons; (2) on the base of (1), puts forward the basic measures through the economic model analysis to solve this problem, and make an appraisal to the government's regulations in recent years; (3) focuses on the government behavior and analyzes whether real estate market does have the monopoly price or the dual monopoly price possibility, and puts forward the policy proposal.
Through the analysis, we believe the fact that the present situation of China house market has two deep problems. The first, investment and speculative behaviors have extruded the housing demand, and under environment of housing supplies insufficient, they and massive latent demands are supporting house price long-term growth. The property tax is the basic regulative method to suppress investment and speculative behaviors; the second, government behavior and incontinuity of land supplies enable local governments and enterprises to have the ability to operate the market price.
本文主要把房地产价格分解成需求和供给两个方面,从市场的需求和供给的角度,分析目前中国房地产价格上涨的原因,同时从经济学上对政府的调控政策做一评价。具体研究的内容主要包括(1)分析目前房地产市场的现状以及呈现如此格局的原因;(2)在(1)的基础上,通过经济模型分析解决这一格局的根本措施,并且对近几年政府调控手段做一评价;(3)从政府行为出发,分析房地产市场是否具有垄断定价或者双重垄断定价的可能,并且提出政策建议。
通过分析,我们认为目前中国房地产市场中:第一投资行为和投机行为挤压了住房市场的购买居住需求,在住房供给不足的情况下,投资行为、投机行为连同大量的潜在需求在支撑房价的长期增长,物业税是抑制过度投资和投机行为的根本调控手段;第二土地制度派生的政府行为以及土地的不连续供给使得政府和房地产开发商具有操纵市场价格的能力。
China had finished the traditional welfare house-allocation system since 1998. From then on housing which is closely linked with the ordinary family entered the market circulation time. The housing market-reform enabled the real estate industry to become a new growth spot in Chinese economy, and has guaranteed our country economy sustainable growth during the deflation time. At the same time housing market-reform reduced the serious burden which the traditional welfare house allocation system brings for the government and the enterprise. However, due to the macroscopic environment that the housing market-reform is facing (for example ordinary inhabitant low income level, corresponding institution supplies deficient) still is not perfect, following the house market advancement the house price continues to rise at the same time to cause the ordinary family to be unable to withstand the heavy burden, meanwhile the real estate industry is expanding rapidly.
This article analyzes reasons about the present house price's rising in market, mainly from the market demand and the supplies views, and makes an appraisal to government's regulative policy from economic view. The specific research mainly includes (1) to analyze the present situation about housing market as well as its reasons; (2) on the base of (1), puts forward the basic measures through the economic model analysis to solve this problem, and make an appraisal to the government's regulations in recent years; (3) focuses on the government behavior and analyzes whether real estate market does have the monopoly price or the dual monopoly price possibility, and puts forward the policy proposal.
Through the analysis, we believe the fact that the present situation of China house market has two deep problems. The first, investment and speculative behaviors have extruded the housing demand, and under environment of housing supplies insufficient, they and massive latent demands are supporting house price long-term growth. The property tax is the basic regulative method to suppress investment and speculative behaviors; the second, government behavior and incontinuity of land supplies enable local governments and enterprises to have the ability to operate the market price.
引文
4倪鹏飞:《房价供需30项指标作证:中国房地产有泡沫》2003
6中国宏观经济政策:“九五”回顾与“十五”展望 《财贸经济》2001.2
7王小广等《住房体制改革》广东经济出版社1999年
11丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔等《城市经济学与房地产市场》经济科学出版社2002
12转自上海财经大学 章柳 硕士学位论文《我国开征物业税的现实选择》2004年11月份
14郭金星 房地产的虚拟性及其波动研究 南开大学出版社 2005年12月
15其中包括对租金的需求,还包括对T期和T+1期资产溢价的投资。在房地产市场中投资者不仅仅包括追求租金收入的那部分投资者,还包括了为了获取资产溢价的那部分人,这部分人称为投机者
17苗天青《我国房地产业:结构、行为与绩效》经济科学出版社2004
1.Abraham,J.,Hendershott,P.H.1995.Bubbles in metropolitan housing markers.J.Housing Res.6,191-207.
2.Barberis N.,A.Shleifer and R.Vishny,1997,A Model of Investor Sentiment,Journal of Financial Economics,49,307-343
3.Case,K.E.,Shiller,R.J.1989.The efficiency of the market for single-family homes.America Economic Review.79,125-127
4.De Long,J.Betal.,1990,Noise Trade Risk in Financial Market,Journal of Political Economy,98,703-738
5.Ito.T,lwaisako T.1995.Explaining asset bubbles in Japan.National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.5358.NBER,Cambridge,MA.
6.Jiang Wang,1993,A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information,Review of Economics Studies,60,249-282
7.Levin,E.J.,Wright,R.E.1997,The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom.Economic.Modell.14,567-585.
8.Muellbauer,J.,Murphy A.1997.Booms and busts in the UK housing market.Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No.1615.
9.West KD.A Specification test for Speculative Bubbles[J],Quarterly Journal of Economics,1987,102:580-663
10.唐齐鸣,叶俊,2003,噪声交易下证券市场参加主体的最优决策模型,数量经济技术经济研究,3,103-107
11.袁志刚,樊潇彦,2003,房地产市场理性泡沫分析,经济研究,3,35-41
12.王雪峰,2005,中国房地产市场泡沫的测度研究,现代经济探讨,8,11-14
13.沈悦,刘洪玉,2004,住宅价格与经济基本面:1995-2002年中国14城市的实证研究,经济研究,6,78-86
14.胡健颖,苏良军等,2006,中国房地产价格有几成泡沫,统计研究,1,39-42
15.余晓,1996,宏观因素余房地产价格,中国科技产业月刊,1,45-46
16.周杰,1998,经济政策对房地产价格的影响,价格月刊,8,24
17.姚先国,黄炜华,地价与房价关系,中国土地,9,33-35
18.高波,毛丰付,2003,房价与地价关系的实证研究,产业经济研究,3,19-24
19.李立,李永辉,2002,论当前影响房价的因素及变动趋势,东岳论丛,6,36-38
20.韩德忠,2005,基于West模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究,当代经济科学,9,6-11
21.丰雷等,2002,中国房地产泡沫实证研究,管理世界,10
22.中国宏观经济政策:“九五”回顾与“十五”展望,财贸经济,2001.2
23.黄正新,2002,关于泡沫经济及其测度的几个理论问题,世界经济与政治,1
24.李维哲,曲波,2002,地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究,山西财经大学学报,2
25.洪开荣,2001,房地产泡沫:形成、吸收与转化,中国房地产金融,8,10-14
26.杨帆,2006,泡沫经济理论与中国房地产市场的调控,学习与实践,2,141-153
27.泰勒尔,1997,产业组织理论,中国人民大学出版社
28.斯蒂芬·马丁,2003,高级产业经济学,上海财经大学出版社
29.况伟大,2003,垄断、竞争与管制—北京市住宅业市场结构研究,经济管理出版社
30.郭金星,2005,房地产的虚拟性及其波动研究,南开大学出版社
31.范里安,2003,微观经济学现代观点,上海三联书店、上海人民出版社
32.国家信息中心,2006中国房地产市场展望
33.包宗华,2002,住宅与房地产,中国建筑工业出版社
34.王小广,高国力,樊彩耀,1999,住房体制改革,广东经济出版社
35.徐滇庆,2005,房价与泡沫经济,机械工业出版社
36.沈悦,2006,房地产价格与宏观经济的关系研究,中国水利水电出版社、知识产权出版社
37.刘洪玉,2006,房地产业与社会经济,清华大学出版社
38.王子明,2002,泡沫与泡沫经济,北京大学出版社
39.丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔等,2002,城市经济学与房地产市场,经济科学出版社
40.谢经荣等,2002,地产泡沫与警容危机,经济管理出版社
41.苗天青,2004,我国房地产业:结构、行为与绩效,经济科学出版社
42.胡怡建,1999,税收学,上海财经大学出版社
43.曾国祥,2000,税收学,中国税务出版社
44.各国税制比较研究课题组,1996,财产税制国际比较,中国财政经济出版社
45.倪鹏飞,2003,《房价供需30项指标作证:中国房地产有泡沫》
46.周京奎,2004,金融过度支持与房地产泡沫研究,博士论文
47.章柳,2004,中国开征物业税的现实选择,硕士论文
6中国宏观经济政策:“九五”回顾与“十五”展望 《财贸经济》2001.2
7王小广等《住房体制改革》广东经济出版社1999年
11丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔等《城市经济学与房地产市场》经济科学出版社2002
12转自上海财经大学 章柳 硕士学位论文《我国开征物业税的现实选择》2004年11月份
14郭金星 房地产的虚拟性及其波动研究 南开大学出版社 2005年12月
15其中包括对租金的需求,还包括对T期和T+1期资产溢价的投资。在房地产市场中投资者不仅仅包括追求租金收入的那部分投资者,还包括了为了获取资产溢价的那部分人,这部分人称为投机者
17苗天青《我国房地产业:结构、行为与绩效》经济科学出版社2004
1.Abraham,J.,Hendershott,P.H.1995.Bubbles in metropolitan housing markers.J.Housing Res.6,191-207.
2.Barberis N.,A.Shleifer and R.Vishny,1997,A Model of Investor Sentiment,Journal of Financial Economics,49,307-343
3.Case,K.E.,Shiller,R.J.1989.The efficiency of the market for single-family homes.America Economic Review.79,125-127
4.De Long,J.Betal.,1990,Noise Trade Risk in Financial Market,Journal of Political Economy,98,703-738
5.Ito.T,lwaisako T.1995.Explaining asset bubbles in Japan.National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No.5358.NBER,Cambridge,MA.
6.Jiang Wang,1993,A Model of Intertemporal Asset Prices Under Asymmetric Information,Review of Economics Studies,60,249-282
7.Levin,E.J.,Wright,R.E.1997,The impact of speculation on house prices in the United Kingdom.Economic.Modell.14,567-585.
8.Muellbauer,J.,Murphy A.1997.Booms and busts in the UK housing market.Centre for Economic Policy Research Discussion Paper No.1615.
9.West KD.A Specification test for Speculative Bubbles[J],Quarterly Journal of Economics,1987,102:580-663
10.唐齐鸣,叶俊,2003,噪声交易下证券市场参加主体的最优决策模型,数量经济技术经济研究,3,103-107
11.袁志刚,樊潇彦,2003,房地产市场理性泡沫分析,经济研究,3,35-41
12.王雪峰,2005,中国房地产市场泡沫的测度研究,现代经济探讨,8,11-14
13.沈悦,刘洪玉,2004,住宅价格与经济基本面:1995-2002年中国14城市的实证研究,经济研究,6,78-86
14.胡健颖,苏良军等,2006,中国房地产价格有几成泡沫,统计研究,1,39-42
15.余晓,1996,宏观因素余房地产价格,中国科技产业月刊,1,45-46
16.周杰,1998,经济政策对房地产价格的影响,价格月刊,8,24
17.姚先国,黄炜华,地价与房价关系,中国土地,9,33-35
18.高波,毛丰付,2003,房价与地价关系的实证研究,产业经济研究,3,19-24
19.李立,李永辉,2002,论当前影响房价的因素及变动趋势,东岳论丛,6,36-38
20.韩德忠,2005,基于West模型的房地产泡沫的实证研究,当代经济科学,9,6-11
21.丰雷等,2002,中国房地产泡沫实证研究,管理世界,10
22.中国宏观经济政策:“九五”回顾与“十五”展望,财贸经济,2001.2
23.黄正新,2002,关于泡沫经济及其测度的几个理论问题,世界经济与政治,1
24.李维哲,曲波,2002,地产泡沫预警指标体系与方法研究,山西财经大学学报,2
25.洪开荣,2001,房地产泡沫:形成、吸收与转化,中国房地产金融,8,10-14
26.杨帆,2006,泡沫经济理论与中国房地产市场的调控,学习与实践,2,141-153
27.泰勒尔,1997,产业组织理论,中国人民大学出版社
28.斯蒂芬·马丁,2003,高级产业经济学,上海财经大学出版社
29.况伟大,2003,垄断、竞争与管制—北京市住宅业市场结构研究,经济管理出版社
30.郭金星,2005,房地产的虚拟性及其波动研究,南开大学出版社
31.范里安,2003,微观经济学现代观点,上海三联书店、上海人民出版社
32.国家信息中心,2006中国房地产市场展望
33.包宗华,2002,住宅与房地产,中国建筑工业出版社
34.王小广,高国力,樊彩耀,1999,住房体制改革,广东经济出版社
35.徐滇庆,2005,房价与泡沫经济,机械工业出版社
36.沈悦,2006,房地产价格与宏观经济的关系研究,中国水利水电出版社、知识产权出版社
37.刘洪玉,2006,房地产业与社会经济,清华大学出版社
38.王子明,2002,泡沫与泡沫经济,北京大学出版社
39.丹尼斯·迪帕斯奎尔等,2002,城市经济学与房地产市场,经济科学出版社
40.谢经荣等,2002,地产泡沫与警容危机,经济管理出版社
41.苗天青,2004,我国房地产业:结构、行为与绩效,经济科学出版社
42.胡怡建,1999,税收学,上海财经大学出版社
43.曾国祥,2000,税收学,中国税务出版社
44.各国税制比较研究课题组,1996,财产税制国际比较,中国财政经济出版社
45.倪鹏飞,2003,《房价供需30项指标作证:中国房地产有泡沫》
46.周京奎,2004,金融过度支持与房地产泡沫研究,博士论文
47.章柳,2004,中国开征物业税的现实选择,硕士论文