授信融资下物流金融的运营和风险管理问题研究
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摘要
当前，我国逐渐成为世界上重要的生产基地和最具潜力的消费市场，国内广大中小企业面临难得发展机遇的同时，也面临十分突出的资金短缺问题。融合了物流服务和金融创新的物流金融凭借其独特的优势，成为解决中小企业融资难的有效手段。目前，我国物流金融发展时间较短，各方面工作仍处于起步阶段，相关理论研究相对薄弱。因此，系统地研究物流金融运营和风险管理问题，对于提高融资效率、降低贷款各方成本、合理安排生产及人力物力调度、提高金融机构和物流企业服务水平、保证信贷资金安全、促进物流金融业务健康快速的发展均有十分重要的意义。本文以物流金融中授信融资模式为研究对象，针对其运营管理中的运营计划、运营组织、运营控制以及风险管理等内容，详细研究了质押物流量预测、物流企业仓储空间分配、贷款各方收益分配及融资策略选择的互动机制、突发事件的预警评价及风险规避等问题。
本文的主要研究工作如下：
（1）从运营计划的角度出发，针对融资之初物流企业如何合理分配授信额度和仓储空间的问题，本文使用基于最小几何距离的加权调和平均方法，建立了组合预测模型，对物流金融中质押物流量进行了预测，实例计算表明：模型具有较高的预测精度。
（2）从运营组织的角度出发，为解决物流企业在满足仓储空间及授信额度约束条件下的收益最大化问题，本文建立了有临时质押请求的仓储空间分配模型，采用鲁棒优化算法对模型进行了求解，结合实例验证了该模型对于提高融通仓收益的可行性和有效性。
（3）从运营控制的角度出发，针对物流企业和贷款企业授信融资时的有限理性及融资策略的选择问题，本文建立了考虑银行核查作用的两企业演化博弈非线性模型，借助稳定性理论和精细积分数值方法研究了演化博弈系统的非线性行为。研究结果表明：监管成本、罚款金额等参数都是博弈双方策略选择的影响因素，而银行核查后调整信用等级也显著影响了博弈双方的积极性。
（4）从风险管理的突发事件预警角度出发，针对物流金融各类突发事件的预警评价问题，本文以物流企业的融通仓为研究对象，分析了融通仓突发事件的指标评价体系，建立了基于可拓相似系数法的灰色多层次预警评价模型，结合实例验证了该模型的有效性。
（5）从风险管理的风险规避角度出发，本文借助可拓理论深入研究了物流金融风险问题，对引发风险的各种深层次原因、风险之间的相互关联及交叉传导进行了分析。以此为基础，建立了物流金融的风险控制可拓模型，对其进行可拓分析和可拓变换之后，研究并提出了系统规避物流金融风险的各种策略，为管理层防范融资风险、减少经营损失提供了切实可行的方法。
With the development of world’s economic, China gradually becomes the most importantproduction base and the most potential consumption market. Because of these reasons, Chinese smalland medium-sized enterprises face wider market space and more developing opportunities than before.However, funds shortage is an outstanding problem. Logistics finance, which is a kind of newfinancial business, owing to its convenience and multiplicity, could resolve the financial problems ofsmall and medium-sized enterprises effectively. However, in China, logistics finance is an emergingthing and still in primary stage. Therefore, study on the logistics finance’s operation and risksmanagement problems has an important role: it could improve efficiency, reduce costs, arrangeproduction plan and human resource reasonably, improve the service level of financial institution andlogistics enterprise, guarantee the loan’s security, promote business development. In order to study thelogistics finance’s some key problems, this paper researches the pledge’s flow forecasting, financingwarehouse’s storage space allocation, loan parties’ revenue and strategies’ interactive mechanism, theemergent events’ early warning and logistics finance’s risks avoidance of credit extension finance.
The primary innovations of this paper are as follows:
(1) From operation planning view, in order to allocate the credit extension amount and financingwarehouse’s stroage reasonably, this paper uses harmonic means combination forecasting method tobuild a forecasting model and forecast the pledge’s flow. An example shows that the combinationforecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy.
(2) From operation organization view, in order to satisfy storage space and credit extensionamount constraint, this paper builds a storage space allocation model for temporary pledgerequirement, and uses robust optimization method to obtain the robust solution. An example provesthe validity of the model and solution method.
(3) From operation controlling view, in order to study the game behaviors of logistics enterpriseand financing enterprise, this paper builds a nonlinear evolutionary game model to analyze theinteraction between the players, which considering bank’s checking, uses precise integration methodwhich is developed by Professor Zhong Wanxie to study the nonlinear behaviors of evolutionarysystem. Results show that checking cost of logistics enterprise, penalty for financing enterprise etc. allparameters affect the system’s evolutionary direction and players’ strategies selection; furthermore,bank adjusts the credit rate reasonably, can affect game players’ positive significantly, balance the revenue of players, and strengthen the supervision of financing process.
(4) From early-warning of emergent events view, in order to study the problems of early-warningwith logistics finance’s emergency events, take financing warehouse for example, this paperestablishes the emergency events evaluating index, and builds a grey hierarchy early-warningevaluation model which based on extension similarity coefficient method. An example proves thevalidity of this method.
(5) From risk avoidance view, this paper uses the extension theory to study the problems oflogistics finance’s risks, builds the risk control extension model, and seeks for contradictions’ laws byusing extension analysis and extension transformation. Finally, this paper proposes formalizedextension methods and strategies for risk avoidance. This method provides feasible way fordecision-maker, and reduces the loan parties’ loss.
本文的主要研究工作如下：
（1）从运营计划的角度出发，针对融资之初物流企业如何合理分配授信额度和仓储空间的问题，本文使用基于最小几何距离的加权调和平均方法，建立了组合预测模型，对物流金融中质押物流量进行了预测，实例计算表明：模型具有较高的预测精度。
（2）从运营组织的角度出发，为解决物流企业在满足仓储空间及授信额度约束条件下的收益最大化问题，本文建立了有临时质押请求的仓储空间分配模型，采用鲁棒优化算法对模型进行了求解，结合实例验证了该模型对于提高融通仓收益的可行性和有效性。
（3）从运营控制的角度出发，针对物流企业和贷款企业授信融资时的有限理性及融资策略的选择问题，本文建立了考虑银行核查作用的两企业演化博弈非线性模型，借助稳定性理论和精细积分数值方法研究了演化博弈系统的非线性行为。研究结果表明：监管成本、罚款金额等参数都是博弈双方策略选择的影响因素，而银行核查后调整信用等级也显著影响了博弈双方的积极性。
（4）从风险管理的突发事件预警角度出发，针对物流金融各类突发事件的预警评价问题，本文以物流企业的融通仓为研究对象，分析了融通仓突发事件的指标评价体系，建立了基于可拓相似系数法的灰色多层次预警评价模型，结合实例验证了该模型的有效性。
（5）从风险管理的风险规避角度出发，本文借助可拓理论深入研究了物流金融风险问题，对引发风险的各种深层次原因、风险之间的相互关联及交叉传导进行了分析。以此为基础，建立了物流金融的风险控制可拓模型，对其进行可拓分析和可拓变换之后，研究并提出了系统规避物流金融风险的各种策略，为管理层防范融资风险、减少经营损失提供了切实可行的方法。
With the development of world’s economic, China gradually becomes the most importantproduction base and the most potential consumption market. Because of these reasons, Chinese smalland medium-sized enterprises face wider market space and more developing opportunities than before.However, funds shortage is an outstanding problem. Logistics finance, which is a kind of newfinancial business, owing to its convenience and multiplicity, could resolve the financial problems ofsmall and medium-sized enterprises effectively. However, in China, logistics finance is an emergingthing and still in primary stage. Therefore, study on the logistics finance’s operation and risksmanagement problems has an important role: it could improve efficiency, reduce costs, arrangeproduction plan and human resource reasonably, improve the service level of financial institution andlogistics enterprise, guarantee the loan’s security, promote business development. In order to study thelogistics finance’s some key problems, this paper researches the pledge’s flow forecasting, financingwarehouse’s storage space allocation, loan parties’ revenue and strategies’ interactive mechanism, theemergent events’ early warning and logistics finance’s risks avoidance of credit extension finance.
The primary innovations of this paper are as follows:
(1) From operation planning view, in order to allocate the credit extension amount and financingwarehouse’s stroage reasonably, this paper uses harmonic means combination forecasting method tobuild a forecasting model and forecast the pledge’s flow. An example shows that the combinationforecasting method can improve the forecasting accuracy.
(2) From operation organization view, in order to satisfy storage space and credit extensionamount constraint, this paper builds a storage space allocation model for temporary pledgerequirement, and uses robust optimization method to obtain the robust solution. An example provesthe validity of the model and solution method.
(3) From operation controlling view, in order to study the game behaviors of logistics enterpriseand financing enterprise, this paper builds a nonlinear evolutionary game model to analyze theinteraction between the players, which considering bank’s checking, uses precise integration methodwhich is developed by Professor Zhong Wanxie to study the nonlinear behaviors of evolutionarysystem. Results show that checking cost of logistics enterprise, penalty for financing enterprise etc. allparameters affect the system’s evolutionary direction and players’ strategies selection; furthermore,bank adjusts the credit rate reasonably, can affect game players’ positive significantly, balance the revenue of players, and strengthen the supervision of financing process.
(4) From early-warning of emergent events view, in order to study the problems of early-warningwith logistics finance’s emergency events, take financing warehouse for example, this paperestablishes the emergency events evaluating index, and builds a grey hierarchy early-warningevaluation model which based on extension similarity coefficient method. An example proves thevalidity of this method.
(5) From risk avoidance view, this paper uses the extension theory to study the problems oflogistics finance’s risks, builds the risk control extension model, and seeks for contradictions’ laws byusing extension analysis and extension transformation. Finally, this paper proposes formalizedextension methods and strategies for risk avoidance. This method provides feasible way fordecision-maker, and reduces the loan parties’ loss.
引文
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