化工装置事故的多米诺效应定量分析关键问题研究
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摘要
化工过程涉及众多危险化学品，同时工艺条件十分苛刻，随着化工装置的大型化以及布置的密集化，在取得较大经济效益的同时，也带来了重大的潜在危险。由于存在多米诺效应，化工装置发生的初始事故可能会导致周边装置发生多米诺事故，不但会提高事故频率，而且也增大了事故后果的严重程度。因此，对化工装置事故的多米诺效应进行定量分析具有十分重要的理论研究意义和工程应用价值。
对化工装置事故的多米诺效应进行定量分析需要研究化工装置初始事故的后果和概率以及目标装置发生多米诺事故的概率和后果，在此基础上，可以评估装置风险，确定需要进行重点监控的装置。本文的主要研究工作如下：
1、针对沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸（BLEVE）事故火球质量难以确定的问题，提出了一种由外部火灾引起的BLEVE事故火球质量的确定方法，建立了估计BLEVE过程泄放时间的模型，分析了通过安全阀泄放到环境中的物料质量，确定了BLEVE事故火球质量。
2、针对化工装置初始事故导致的多米诺事故，提出了一种多米诺效应概率分析方法，给出了具体的分析流程，基于装置泄漏后立即点火和延迟点火的可能性利用事件树方法分析了装置可能发生的初始事故及其概率，研究了目标装置发生多米诺事故的可能性，分析了初始事故导致的多米诺事故场景及其概率。
3、针对化工装置存在的事故危险，提出了一种装置事故的风险评估方法，分析了装置的风险来自装置固有风险和装置发生初始事故时导致周边装置发生连锁事故的多米诺效应风险，建立了装置的固有风险和多米诺效应风险模型，分析了装置事故导致的多米诺事故场景及其概率，评估了装置的总风险，确定了需要进行重点监控的装置。
4、为定量分析化工装置事故的多米诺效应，设计和实现了化工事故模拟系统，通过GIS和三维虚拟现实展示了石化企业真实场景，给出了化工装置设计参数及安全措施等信息，模拟了化工装置初始事故后果及导致的多米诺事故，利用该系统对某石化企业的乙烯装置进行了多米诺效应分析，确定了需重点监控的装置。
There are many kinds of hazardous materials involving in the chemicalprocess industry. Meanwhile, the operating conditions are complicated. Withthe development of chemical equipment features large-size and denseness oflayout, there are more potential hazards while obtaining larger economicbenefits. The initial accident of chemical equipment may trigger a chain ofaccidents due to the domino effect. This not only increases the frequency ofthe accident, but also enlarges the consequences. Therefore, the quantitativeanalysis about the domino effect of chemical equipment is very important intheoretical study and engineering application.
In order to quantitative assessment of the domino effect, theconsequences and frenquencies of the initial accident and the dominoaccidents must be analyzed. On this basis, the risk of chemical equipment canbe assessed. The chemical equipment which should be intensive monitoredcan be confirmed. The main research work and the related results can besummarized as follows:
(1) In order to confirm the fireball mass from the boiling liquidexpanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), a method is proposed to estimate thefireball mass for fire-induced BLEVE. A model is presented to estimate thevent time, then the vent mass from the pressure relief valve can be obtainedwhen the vent capacity of pressure relief valve is calculated. The fireball masscan be confirmed while the initial filling quantity is known.
(2) A method is presented to analyze the probability of the dominoaccident. The procedure is given to analyze the domino effect of chemicalequipment. The initial accident and its probability are analyzed by using eventtree based on the frequency of direct ignition and delay ignition. Thefrequency of domino accident from target equipment is studied. The dominosequences and their probabilities are analyzed.
(3) A risk assessment method is proposed to evaluate the hazard ofchemical equipment. The risk of chemical equipment not only depends on theinherent risk, but also depends on domino effect risk. The inherent risk modeland the domino effect risk model of chemical equipment are presented. Thedomino accident and its probability from the initial accident are analyzed. Thetotal risk of chemical equipment is assessed. The chemical equipment whichshould be intensive monitored can be confirmed while the risk rank of allequipment is obtained.
(4) In order to analysis the domino effect from chemical accidents, asimulation platform for chemical process accidents is developed. The real life scenario of chemical plant is shown by using GIS and virtual reality. Thedesign parameters and safety measures of chemical equipment are given. Theinitial accident and domino accidents are simulated. An ethylene unit is usedto analyze the domino effect by using the simulation platform.
对化工装置事故的多米诺效应进行定量分析需要研究化工装置初始事故的后果和概率以及目标装置发生多米诺事故的概率和后果，在此基础上，可以评估装置风险，确定需要进行重点监控的装置。本文的主要研究工作如下：
1、针对沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸（BLEVE）事故火球质量难以确定的问题，提出了一种由外部火灾引起的BLEVE事故火球质量的确定方法，建立了估计BLEVE过程泄放时间的模型，分析了通过安全阀泄放到环境中的物料质量，确定了BLEVE事故火球质量。
2、针对化工装置初始事故导致的多米诺事故，提出了一种多米诺效应概率分析方法，给出了具体的分析流程，基于装置泄漏后立即点火和延迟点火的可能性利用事件树方法分析了装置可能发生的初始事故及其概率，研究了目标装置发生多米诺事故的可能性，分析了初始事故导致的多米诺事故场景及其概率。
3、针对化工装置存在的事故危险，提出了一种装置事故的风险评估方法，分析了装置的风险来自装置固有风险和装置发生初始事故时导致周边装置发生连锁事故的多米诺效应风险，建立了装置的固有风险和多米诺效应风险模型，分析了装置事故导致的多米诺事故场景及其概率，评估了装置的总风险，确定了需要进行重点监控的装置。
4、为定量分析化工装置事故的多米诺效应，设计和实现了化工事故模拟系统，通过GIS和三维虚拟现实展示了石化企业真实场景，给出了化工装置设计参数及安全措施等信息，模拟了化工装置初始事故后果及导致的多米诺事故，利用该系统对某石化企业的乙烯装置进行了多米诺效应分析，确定了需重点监控的装置。
There are many kinds of hazardous materials involving in the chemicalprocess industry. Meanwhile, the operating conditions are complicated. Withthe development of chemical equipment features large-size and denseness oflayout, there are more potential hazards while obtaining larger economicbenefits. The initial accident of chemical equipment may trigger a chain ofaccidents due to the domino effect. This not only increases the frequency ofthe accident, but also enlarges the consequences. Therefore, the quantitativeanalysis about the domino effect of chemical equipment is very important intheoretical study and engineering application.
In order to quantitative assessment of the domino effect, theconsequences and frenquencies of the initial accident and the dominoaccidents must be analyzed. On this basis, the risk of chemical equipment canbe assessed. The chemical equipment which should be intensive monitoredcan be confirmed. The main research work and the related results can besummarized as follows:
(1) In order to confirm the fireball mass from the boiling liquidexpanding vapor explosion (BLEVE), a method is proposed to estimate thefireball mass for fire-induced BLEVE. A model is presented to estimate thevent time, then the vent mass from the pressure relief valve can be obtainedwhen the vent capacity of pressure relief valve is calculated. The fireball masscan be confirmed while the initial filling quantity is known.
(2) A method is presented to analyze the probability of the dominoaccident. The procedure is given to analyze the domino effect of chemicalequipment. The initial accident and its probability are analyzed by using eventtree based on the frequency of direct ignition and delay ignition. Thefrequency of domino accident from target equipment is studied. The dominosequences and their probabilities are analyzed.
(3) A risk assessment method is proposed to evaluate the hazard ofchemical equipment. The risk of chemical equipment not only depends on theinherent risk, but also depends on domino effect risk. The inherent risk modeland the domino effect risk model of chemical equipment are presented. Thedomino accident and its probability from the initial accident are analyzed. Thetotal risk of chemical equipment is assessed. The chemical equipment whichshould be intensive monitored can be confirmed while the risk rank of allequipment is obtained.
(4) In order to analysis the domino effect from chemical accidents, asimulation platform for chemical process accidents is developed. The real life scenario of chemical plant is shown by using GIS and virtual reality. Thedesign parameters and safety measures of chemical equipment are given. Theinitial accident and domino accidents are simulated. An ethylene unit is usedto analyze the domino effect by using the simulation platform.
引文
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