经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制研究
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摘要
经济学中最受关注的主题之一就是金融危机。在人类社会发展的历史长河中,特别是在世界工业革命之后,金融危机如同“病魔”一直伴随着世界经济的历程。历史上发生的金融危机每一次都给经济学家们留下了无尽的思考。
本文所要探讨的是经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制。自2008年美国次贷危机爆发并迅速演变为世界性金融危机以来,学术界从多个视角展开了极具成效的研究并取得了丰厚的成果。目前,学术界对美国金融危机研究的关注点更多地集中在对危机发生的直接原因及影响的探讨上,缺乏从经济发展及其新变化这一视角进行的系统分析。怎样解释这场金融危机?我们当然不应也不能割断历史。自1825年英国爆发第一次普遍性生产过剩危机以来,周期性的经济危机就成为资本主义国家经济发展过程中无法消除的阴影。考察经济危机的历史不难得出这样的认识：经济危机确实在不同历史时期会以不同的形式爆发,并表现出不同的特点。尤其是二战结束以来,以资本主义生产方式为主导的全球经济已发生深刻的变化,经济危机虽然始终伴随着资本主义生产方式的发展而不断发生,但发生的频率、强度、形式却有很大的不同。20世纪以前经济危机多以生产过剩的形式出现,而到了20世纪70年代则表现为“滞胀”,20世纪末期又以一些新兴市场国家爆发金融危机为主要特征,2008年则以美国次贷危机为导火索,进而演化成全球金融危机。那么,不同历史时期的经济危机之间存在何种内在联系?是否具有共同的矛盾根源?危机形态演变的逻辑又是什么?这些问题无疑是经济学领域中常议常新的话题,也是经济学必须回答的重大理论与现实问题。
必须肯定的是,学术界给出的各种关于美国金融危机的解释,确实揭示出了美国金融危机发生的直接诱因,但在各种关于美国金融危机的解释中,不能不提出的质疑是：美国次级贷款及其金融衍生品的泛滥到底与什么因素相关?世界经济失衡与美国国内经济结构严重失衡间到底存在怎样的关系?是什么原因所导致的?如果对这一系列问题进行追问的话,那么,美国金融危机的发生就不是简单地直接列举美国经济存在的那些显性或隐性的结构性问题所能说明的了。
现代金融危机的国际传染性已是不争的事实。在美元具有国际货币地位条件下,美国金融危机的国际传染相应具有其独特性。从世界金融危机的历史来考察,不同的国际货币本位制下的金融危机传染确实表现出不同的特征,具体表现为：在国际金本位制和布雷顿森林体系下,一国金融危机在国际间传染的后果主要表现为全球性或区域性的通货紧缩。而在美元具有国际货币地位的条件下,由于汇率浮动已成为一种长期化趋势、国际收支调节机制的不健全以及美元霸权的存在,金融危机发生、传递的速度日趋加快,尤其是20世纪90年代以后,随着经济全球一体化进程的加快,金融危机的影响范围呈现出日益扩大的趋势；并且,随着美元本位制事实上的形成,美国金融危机的国际传染呈现出明显的大规模扩散效应。在美元本位制下,美国凭借自身经济实力,金融危机的国际传染主要通过贸易、金融、季风效应以及心理预期等方式向世界转嫁金融危机。
这些问题无疑具有重要的理论价值和现实意义,但本文主要针对当代经济虚拟化的背景,探讨“经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制”,以马克思主义经济危机理论作为经济虚拟化背景下金融危机机制研究的理论起点,立足于资本主义经济发展的历史与现实,以虚拟经济发展和国家干预经济的加强这两大当代资本主义发展的趋势为研究主线,立足经济全球化的背景,应用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,通过对当今资本主义国家经济发展过程中国家职能转换和经济虚拟化的加速所导致的经济危机变化的分析比较,认为二战后资本主义国家实施宏观调控对经济活动的调节,已由最初的消极和被动的过程转变为自觉、主动和积极的调节过程,宏观调控的长期化必然导致其经济运行发生结构性变化,这种变化的突出特征就是消费社会、债务国家的形成和虚拟经济的膨胀。而虚拟经济膨胀和金融创新必然导致资本市场的不稳定,使原有的经济危机被金融危机所取代。这里研究经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制从三个层面展开,首先阐述虚拟经济的基本内涵及发展趋势,其后分析虚拟经济与实体经济背离的趋势、现代金融危机的特征、表现和现代金融危机机制,最后对中国金融如何才能保证安全作简要分析。具体章节安排如下：
第一章是导论,明确研究的背景、对象、研究方法与思路。通过对虚拟经济与金融危机问题研究现状的分析,确定本文的突破点,即资本主义经济的发展到底有哪些改变?为什么有这些改变?这些改变对当资本主义经济带来了怎样的变化和影响?
第二章对经济发展中的经济虚拟化趋势进行分析,这是本文研究的逻辑起点。通过对虚拟经济概念的界定及其特征、内在演进机制、经济虚拟化背景下经济增长的复杂性、预期与虚拟经济发展的关系及虚拟经济对实体经济增长的作用进行分析,特别是通过分析虚拟经济的起源和快速增长、虚拟经济发展并成为实体经济引导者的原因及其演变的历史进程,为虚拟经济与金融危机问题的研究奠定基础。
第三章研究实体经济与虚拟经济的背离趋势,分析虚拟经济与实体经济背离的宏观因素和微观因素。虚拟经济发展的实质从经济发展过程的意义上看,意味着虚拟经济与实体经济的背离、虚拟经济运行的独立化过程和虚拟经济对实体经济引导作用的变化。虚拟经济与实体经济的背离是必然趋势,虚拟经济与实体经济的背离必然形成泡沫经济,泡沫经济发展的极态就是金融危机
第四章对现代金融危机的显著特征、具体表现形式进行分析,对以往金融危机理论进行梳理和总结。马克思主义经济危机理论的本质,是从资本主义经济作为一种历史地存在的生产方式的内在矛盾出发,将资本主义经济危机确认为一种具有特殊社会原因的经济现象。马克思对资本主义经济危机分析的理论逻辑可概括为：资本主义经济危机的爆发是其生产最终受到社会有支付能力的消费需求限制的结果,而资本主义经济社会有支能力消费需求不足的原因在于资本和劳动收入分配两极分化,资本和劳动收入分配两极分化的原因在于生产资料的资本家占有制度。由于经济危机的根源在于资主义经济的内在矛盾,因而从根本上决定了资本主义经济必然经常地处于经济危机当中。西方早期金融危机理论对金融危机的解释普遍缺乏微观基础,在很大程度上不得不依赖于准心理学的推断,因此只能称其为假说。现代金融危机理论的发展出现了两个明显的趋势：“虚拟化”趋势和综合化趋势。在分析总结以往理论的基础上,从理论角度论证了虚拟经济条件下经济危机日益以金融危机形式显现出来的内在机理。
第五章探讨现代金融危机的形成机制。现代虚拟经济的高度发展是金融危机的发源地,现代金融危机的实质是实体经济危机,进而阐述了现代金融危机的爆发和传导机制,并将金融危机的逻辑概括为：资本主义经济的内在矛盾——资本与劳动的对立导致两极分化——社会有效需求不足——经济呈现生产过剩——政府调控有效需求膨胀——债务违约率上升——金融危机爆发。现代金融危机的传染是各种传导机制综合作用的结果,包括贸易溢出效应、金融溢出效应、季风效应和预期效应。从一定程度上可以说预期传染效应是现代金融危机传导最为突出的特征。
第六章对现代金融危机的生成与传导进行实证。本章的重点在于以前几章分析的理论基础为解释框架,对1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年美国金融危机的生成机制和国际传导进行实证分析。通过比较,对现代金融危机的发生、演变及国际传导提供一个更为全面和清晰的认识：亚洲金融危机的基本原因是亚洲经济发展方式与经济泡沫化；金融市场开放过快,金融监管不力；汇率制度缺乏弹性。结果经济内在缺陷导致投机攻击有机可乘引爆金融危机。美国次贷危机起源于间接融资消费信用,即美国次级房屋按揭贷款贷放失控；放大于直接融资CDO(抵押债务证券)和MBS(债务支持证券)债券信用在金融投资领域的泛滥膨胀(虚拟经济膨胀泛滥)。循着这一线索,阐述了美国经济增长特征、政府宏观调方式、经济结构失衡、美元本位制与金融危机间的关系,从而对美国金融危机原因的分析形成一个合乎逻辑的解释框架。
第七章分析的重点在于对中国经济开放过程中的不确定因素、全球经济不稳定对中国经济的冲击和负面影响进行阐释,目的在于从世界虚拟经济发展演变的客观背景出发,期望从中总结出能有效地指导中国经济改革开放过程中虚拟经济实践的原则和政策。最后分析了中国改革开放中如何通过对金融体系的稳定性重构、如何在金融开放过程中更多地参与国际金融事务来保证中国金融安全。
作者试图努力在四个方面有所创新：(1)当代金融危机的根源,仍然是资本主义经济的内在矛盾——收入两极分化。基本的结论是：金融危机的直接根源在于债务违约率的持续大规模上升；而债务违约的原因在于社会公众未来预期遭到了沉重打击；未来预期的悲观在于居民和政府“透支消费”的不可持续；透支消费的起因是为了缓解生产过剩；生产过剩起因于有效需求不足；而有效需求不足的根源在于资本主义经济的内在矛盾。这样,现代金融危机的逻辑就清晰地呈现出来了：资本主义经济的内在矛盾——贫富差距扩大——有效需求不足——生产过剩——持续大规摸扩大需求——债务违约率上升——金融危机。因此,从马克思主义经济学的逻辑来看,资本主义经济以生产相对过剩为特征的古典危机与现代金融危机并无本质不同,其实质都是生产过剩危机。它们之间的区别仅在于：在古典危机中,生产相对过剩是以有效需求不足直接表现出来,最终引发金融动荡；而在现代金融危机中,生产过剩不再直接表现为有效需求不足,而是表现为有效需求膨胀引发的债务违约大规模持续上升,由此引发金融动荡。从古典危机演变为现代金融危机,只不过是把资本主义经济内在矛盾的爆发从生产领域推到了金融领域。(2)提出了资本主义经济的生产过剩,由有效需求不足转变为有效需求膨胀。虽然从1930年代起西方市场经济国家已经开始用宏观调控和建立消费社会来克服经济危机,用远远脱离实际需求的消费欲望来拉动有效需求,以克服资本主义经济导致的社会有效需求不足。但正因为资本主义经济无止境的增长成为维系经济正常运行的既定条件,只要生产不再能够扩大,往往会发生严重的经济危机。因此,以马克思主义经济学的基本理论逻辑来看,现代金融危机与资本主义的古典危机都是生产过剩危机。在现代金融危机中,由于宏观调控和建立消费社会克服经济危机这两种“扩大需求”措施的形成,生产过剩不再直接表现为有效需求不足,而是表现为有效需求的膨胀。从古典危机演变为现代金融危机,只不过是把资本主义经济内在矛盾的爆发从现时推到了未来。(3)概括了现代金融危机的主要特征和传染机制：金融危机发生的潜伏期较长,对政府影响巨大；金融危机具有主导性和超前性；金融危机的蔓延和传染呈全球化趋势；金融危机更容易在新兴市场国家爆发的区域性特征。现代金融危机传导是一系列因素相互综合作用的结果。总括而论,现代金融危机的传导机制包括贸易溢出效应、金融溢出效应、季风效应和预期效应。从一定意义上说,预期传染效应是现代金融危机传导最突出的特征。(4)系统梳理了金融风险的聚集过程,并将金融危机形成过程概括为四个阶段。从整个产业周期来看,金融风险的形成与自我膨胀机制可概括如下：第一阶段,经济持续繁荣,形成投资将会持续扩张的现象。第二阶段,金融资产价格持续上涨,形成泡沫经济现象。第三阶段,因投资及投机使市场流动性减少,资金需求显著增大,利率上升。’第四阶段,金融资产价格的下跌和实体经济的困境迫使政府采取措施以稳定经济,但如果政府的措施无法提振市场信心,则市场上持续抛售金融资产的行为不会停止,金融资产价格大幅下跌,从而陷入金融危机的深渊。简言之,从产业周期来看,金融危机的形成表现为下列典型的过程：经济繁荣——贷款扩张——金融资产交易持续扩大、资产价格暴涨——利率上升、回收资金和贷款——资产价格暴跌——金融危机。
由于能力和资料的原因,加之虚拟经济领域比较广泛,作者对虚拟经济分析对象的概括可能存在遗漏,这会使结论的说服力受到影响：由于是对虚拟经济这一客观现象从不同的视角进行描述和分析,因而在论文中仍有一些观点被重复讲了多次,连自己都觉得有点“唠唠叨叨”；论文的结构和文字也存在诸多可商榷的余地。这些都是今后将进一步努力完善的方向。至于自己的一得之见,是否确当,自己无法断言,只有留给世人去评说了。作者贯穿论文始终的,是希望不断地探索、认识和领悟现代虚拟经济良序运行的基本规律,致力于建设明天更美好的新中国。
Financial crisis is one of the most discussed topics in economics. In the long history of human civilization, especially during the years after Industrial Revolution, financial crisis emerged as a 'serious illness' and has been entangling the global economy along the way. All financial crises that occurred in history have left economists pondering and contemplating endlessly.
This paper explores the mechanism of financial crisis in the era of'fictitious economy' or 'financial deepening'. Since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis erupted in2008and soon spread into a global financial crisis, extensive research has been conducted from multiple angles by the academic circle and yielded substantial results. Too much attention, however, has been placed on finding direct causes of the crisis and its influence on global economy, rather than a comprehensive study from the point of view of dynamic economic development. How to interpret the2008financial crisis? We, of course, shouldn't neglect the history. Since1825when the first global crisis of overproduction swept over Britain, capitalist economies have found themselves caught in a seemingly endless procession of periodical financial crisis. An observation is not difficult to draw that: economic crises of different times broke up in different forms and displayed distinctive characteristics. This was quite obvious after World War Ⅱ that as the capitalism-led global economy experienced profound changes, reoccurring economic crises differentiated themselves from each other in terms of frequency, strength, and forms. While before the twentieth century economic crises mostly appeared in the form of overproduction, stagflation in the1970s, and financial crises in emerging markets in the late twentieth century, the one, more recently, presented itself by emerging first as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in2008and then developed into a global financial crisis. So how do economic crises of different times internally relate to each other? Do they have the same origins? What is the logic of their evolution? Not only are these questions worth continuous discussion, they are also significant theoretical and practical queries that economics ought to answer.
Admittedly, various explanations provided by the academic circle indeed have revealed the direct causes of the U.S. financial crisis, we, however, still have to query:what factors caused the subprime mortgage and derivatives bubbles in the U.S.? How did the global economic imbalance and the U.S. economic imbalance relate to each other? What factors were responsible for such imbalances? If to explore these questions further, the U.S. financial crisis may not be satisfyingly clarified by simply listing both dominant and recessive structural problems existing in the economy.
It is an undeniable fact that modern financial crisis is contagious. Since US dollars are a global currency, the contagiousness of U.S. financial crises accordingly has its uniqueness. The history of global financial crises reveals that crisis'contagiousness displays different features under different monetary systems: under the gold system and Breton Woods Monetary System, financial crisis usually led to global or regional deflation. Yet under Dollar Standard, due to factors of interest rate fluctuation becoming a long-term trend, the not-yet-perfectly-formed international balance of payments regulation mechanism and the US Dollar hegemony, financial crises appeared to occur and spread more rapidly, especially after1990s when economic globalization accelerated and financial crisis started to draw broader influence on global economy; moreover, with the actual establishment of the dollar standard system, U.S. financial crises displayed an obvious transmission effect at a large scale. Under Dollar Standard, the U.S., dependent on its economic power, transferred its financial crises to the rest of the world through trade, finance, monsoonal effect and psychological expectations.
These questions undoubtedly hold great theoretical and practical significance. This paper, under the background of the deepening of fictitious economy, explores 'the mechanism of financial crisis in fictitious economy'. The study is built upon Marxist economic crisis theory and based on the history and current situation of capitalist economy. The focuses of the study is the development of fictitious economy and the strengthening of government intervention, two major trends of contemporary capitalism. Both normative and positive analysis methods are used. Through the comparison between transformation of capitalist governmental functions and new trends of economic crises arouse from acceleration of fictitious economy deepening, this paper considers that the macroeconomic regulation imposed by capitalist governments after World War II has transferred into a conscientious, proactive, and active act from an inactive and passive one. The lengthening of macroeconomic regulation will inevitably bring structural change to economic operation, a switch featured with the formation of consumption society and debt countries and expansion of fictitious economy. However, fictitious economy's expansion and financial innovation will inevitably lead to an unstable financial market, replacing existing economic crisis with financial crisis. Here, discussion on the financial crisis mechanism is conducted at three levels:first to demonstrate the meaning of fictitious economy and trends in its development, second to analyze topics such as the deviation tendency between fictitious economy and real economy, characteristics of modern financial crisis and the financial crisis mechanism, third to briefly elaborate how China can maintain its financial security. There are seven chapters:
Chapter1, the introduction, identifies research background, objectives, and methodology. After reviewing existing research on fictitious economy and financial crisis, the paper finds its key questions that what changes have been brought by capitalist economic development? Why did such changes occur? What impact did these changes place on capitalist economy?
Chapter2analyzes the trend of deepening of fictitious economy, which is the logic starting point of this paper. Discussion about fictitious economy paves the way for further study on fictitious economy itself and financial crisis. This chapter discusses about the concept, characteristics, mechanism of internal evolution, and complexity of fictitious economy, the relationship between its development and expectation, fictitious economy's impact on real economy, the origin of fictitious economy, and the causes of it becoming an economic driving force and its evolution process accordingly in particular.
Chapter3examines deviation between real and fictitious economies and both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that cause such deviation. The development of fictitious economy, from the point of view of economic development process, appears in three facets:deviation between fictitious and real economies, functioning of fictitious economy becoming more and more independent, and fictitious economy evolving into a driving force to real economy. Deviation between fictitious and real economies is inevitable, which will inevitably lead to occurrence of bubble economy. The extreme form of bubble economy is financial crisis.
Chapter4reviews key features of financial crisis, their embodiment in real life and previous financial crisis theories. Essentially, Marxist economic crisis theory identifies capitalist economic crisis as an economic phenomenon with unique social origins, based on the fact that capitalist is an existing production mode and has its own inner contradictions. The logic of Marxist economic crisis theory can be summarized as:capitalist economic crisis is a result of production restricted by insufficient effective consumption demand, and insufficient demand is resulted from income disparity between capital and labor. Such disparity is. caused by ownership of production materials by capitalists. Since capitalist economic crisis is essentially caused by capitalist economy's inner contradictions, which decides the periodical occurrence of economic crisis. Early western theory's explanations about financial crisis commonly lacked micro-foundation and to a large extent had to rely on inference drawn from quasi-psychology. Therefore, these explanations could only be viewed as hypothesis. Two trends have emerged from the development of modern financial crisis theories:'fictionalization' and integration. This paper, based on previous theory, theoretically expounds the internal mechanism of economic crisis as under the background of fictitious economy it increasingly appears in the form of financial crisis.
Chapter5explores the mechanism for formation of modern financial crisis. Fast growth of modern fictitious economy is the cradle of modern financial crisis, which, in essence, is crisis of real economy. The paper further discusses the mechanism of transmission of modern financial crisis. The two mechanisms can be summarized as:inner contradictions of capitalist economy-disparity between capital and labor force-insufficient effective demand-overproduction governmental regulation and effective demand bubble-increase of default rate-eruption of financial crisis. Contagion of modern financial crisis is an integrated result of a series of interactive factors, including trade spillover effect, financial spillover effect, monsoonal effect, and expectation effect. Contagion effect to a certain degree is the most distinctive characteristic of modern financial crisis.
Chapter6intends to empirically prove the occurrence and transmission of modern financial crisis. By utilizing theories in previous chapters as explanatory framework, this chapter takes the1997Asian financial crisis and the2008U.S. financial crisis as examples and analyzes the mechanism of formation and transmission of financial crisis in general. Through comparison, this paper has gained a better understanding of the formation, evolution and transmission process: the1997Asian financial crisis was fundamentally attributed to its economic development model and economic bubble, financial market overexpansion and slacking supervision, and inelastic exchange rate system. As a result, its economic internal flaws made speculative attack find its chance to ignite the crisis. US subprime mortgage crisis was originated from indirect consumer financing and subprime housing mortgage bubble; continued strong demand for MBS (mortgage-backed security) and CDO (collateralized debt obligation) began to overflow in the financial market. The paper also demonstrates important points such as characteristics of U.S. economic growth, U.S. governmental regulation mode, structural imbalance in the economy, the relationship between dollar standard system and financial crisis, and establishes a logical framework to explain causes of the U.S. financial crisis.
Chapter7mainly explores uncertainties existing in China's economic reform and opening-up and their impact, both positive and negative, on China's economy. The paper aims to provide sound policy implications that can effectively guide China's economic practice under the background of deepening of fictitious economy. The paper lastly analyzes how China can more actively participate in global financial affairs through restructuring its financial stability and opening up its financial market, eternally, to protect its financial security.
The paper attempts to make innovation in the following four fields:(1) modern financial crisis is fundamentally caused by capitalism's inner contradictions---income disparity. The basic conclusion is that financial crisis is directly attributed to the continued extensive increase in default rate; growing default is caused by the smacked expectation of the public upon the future; pessimistic expectation is resulted from the discontinuity of overdrawn consumption by citizen and government; overdrawn consumption arises with the attempt to reduce overproduction; overproduction is originated from insufficient effective demand; and insufficient demand is attributed to capitalism's inner contradiction. In this way, the logic of modern financial crisis can be clearly seen: capitalism's inner contradiction-disparity between the rich and the poor insufficient effective demand-overproduction-continuously and extensively growing demand-increase of default rate-financial crisis. Therefore, in the view of Marxist economics, classical crisis and modern financial crisis are the same in essence that both are overproduction. The only distinction between the two is that for classical crisis, overproduction is embodied in insufficient effective demand, while for modern financial crisis, overproduction is displayed through continuously and extensively growing debt default, which is caused by demand bubble. From classical crisis to modern financial crisis, it is only a process that capitalism's inner contradiction is transmitted from production to finance.(2) Overproduction in capitalist economy can viewed as insufficient effective demand transformed into demand bubble. Although since1930s, Western economies have started using macroeconomic regulation and establishing consumption society to overcome economic crisis, an attempt to stimulate effective consumption by fueling far-fetched demand. Yet as the ever-growing economy has become the foundation to ensure the normal functioning of the society, once production stops expanding and serious economic crisis may occur. Therefore, from the view of Marxist economics, classical crisis and modern financial crisis are the same in essence that both are overproduction. In modern financial crisis, thanks to the establishment of two'fueling consumption'techniques to conquer the crisis, macroeconomic regulation and consumption society, overproduction is embodied as demand bubble instead of insufficient effective demand. From classical crisis to modern financial crisis, it is only a process that the eruption of capitalism's inner contradiction is postponed from now to the future.(3) Key features and transmission mechanism of modern financial crisis:long latent period, big influence on government, being dominant and advanced, global contagion, more venerable emerging markets. Transmission of modern financial crisis is an integrated result of a series of interactive factors. In a word, the transmission mechanism of modem financial crisis includes trade spillover effect, financial spillover effect, monsoonal effect and expectation effect. Contagion effect, to a certain degree, is the most distinctive characteristic of modern financial crisis.(4) Accumulation and formation processes of modern financial crisis. In terms of production circle, the formation process can be summarized into four stages: stages1, continued economic prosperity leading to investment expansion; stage2, continued price increase in financial asset resulting in bubble economy; stage3, investment and speculation decreasing market mobility, increasing demand for capital and interest rate; stage4, decline in financial asset price and governmental regulation forced by economic downturn, but if government fails to stimulate market confidence, asset dumping will continue, asset price will plunge, and financial crisis will emerge. Briefly speaking, in terms of production circle, financial crisis is typically formed as follows:economic prosperity-debt bubble-increase in asset trade and sudden rise in asset price-increase in exchange rate, capital recovery and debt-sudden decline in asset price-financial crisis.
Due to the fact that fictitious economy is a broad subject, along with my limited knowledge and access to resources, this paper may be found with errors of omission, which can undermine its persuasiveness. The discussion, undertaking a multi-angled approach, may appear a bit prolix even to the author as some arguments have been repeated more than once. How to structure and phrase the paper still remains to be discussed. All of these provide me guidance for future improvement. As for the arguments, they are left for the readers to judge. My continuous effort devoted into this paper is to explore the basic law of a healthily-functioning modern fictitious economy, in hope of building a new China with a brighter future.
本文所要探讨的是经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制。自2008年美国次贷危机爆发并迅速演变为世界性金融危机以来,学术界从多个视角展开了极具成效的研究并取得了丰厚的成果。目前,学术界对美国金融危机研究的关注点更多地集中在对危机发生的直接原因及影响的探讨上,缺乏从经济发展及其新变化这一视角进行的系统分析。怎样解释这场金融危机?我们当然不应也不能割断历史。自1825年英国爆发第一次普遍性生产过剩危机以来,周期性的经济危机就成为资本主义国家经济发展过程中无法消除的阴影。考察经济危机的历史不难得出这样的认识：经济危机确实在不同历史时期会以不同的形式爆发,并表现出不同的特点。尤其是二战结束以来,以资本主义生产方式为主导的全球经济已发生深刻的变化,经济危机虽然始终伴随着资本主义生产方式的发展而不断发生,但发生的频率、强度、形式却有很大的不同。20世纪以前经济危机多以生产过剩的形式出现,而到了20世纪70年代则表现为“滞胀”,20世纪末期又以一些新兴市场国家爆发金融危机为主要特征,2008年则以美国次贷危机为导火索,进而演化成全球金融危机。那么,不同历史时期的经济危机之间存在何种内在联系?是否具有共同的矛盾根源?危机形态演变的逻辑又是什么?这些问题无疑是经济学领域中常议常新的话题,也是经济学必须回答的重大理论与现实问题。
必须肯定的是,学术界给出的各种关于美国金融危机的解释,确实揭示出了美国金融危机发生的直接诱因,但在各种关于美国金融危机的解释中,不能不提出的质疑是：美国次级贷款及其金融衍生品的泛滥到底与什么因素相关?世界经济失衡与美国国内经济结构严重失衡间到底存在怎样的关系?是什么原因所导致的?如果对这一系列问题进行追问的话,那么,美国金融危机的发生就不是简单地直接列举美国经济存在的那些显性或隐性的结构性问题所能说明的了。
现代金融危机的国际传染性已是不争的事实。在美元具有国际货币地位条件下,美国金融危机的国际传染相应具有其独特性。从世界金融危机的历史来考察,不同的国际货币本位制下的金融危机传染确实表现出不同的特征,具体表现为：在国际金本位制和布雷顿森林体系下,一国金融危机在国际间传染的后果主要表现为全球性或区域性的通货紧缩。而在美元具有国际货币地位的条件下,由于汇率浮动已成为一种长期化趋势、国际收支调节机制的不健全以及美元霸权的存在,金融危机发生、传递的速度日趋加快,尤其是20世纪90年代以后,随着经济全球一体化进程的加快,金融危机的影响范围呈现出日益扩大的趋势；并且,随着美元本位制事实上的形成,美国金融危机的国际传染呈现出明显的大规模扩散效应。在美元本位制下,美国凭借自身经济实力,金融危机的国际传染主要通过贸易、金融、季风效应以及心理预期等方式向世界转嫁金融危机。
这些问题无疑具有重要的理论价值和现实意义,但本文主要针对当代经济虚拟化的背景,探讨“经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制”,以马克思主义经济危机理论作为经济虚拟化背景下金融危机机制研究的理论起点,立足于资本主义经济发展的历史与现实,以虚拟经济发展和国家干预经济的加强这两大当代资本主义发展的趋势为研究主线,立足经济全球化的背景,应用规范分析与实证分析相结合的研究方法,通过对当今资本主义国家经济发展过程中国家职能转换和经济虚拟化的加速所导致的经济危机变化的分析比较,认为二战后资本主义国家实施宏观调控对经济活动的调节,已由最初的消极和被动的过程转变为自觉、主动和积极的调节过程,宏观调控的长期化必然导致其经济运行发生结构性变化,这种变化的突出特征就是消费社会、债务国家的形成和虚拟经济的膨胀。而虚拟经济膨胀和金融创新必然导致资本市场的不稳定,使原有的经济危机被金融危机所取代。这里研究经济虚拟化背景下的金融危机机制从三个层面展开,首先阐述虚拟经济的基本内涵及发展趋势,其后分析虚拟经济与实体经济背离的趋势、现代金融危机的特征、表现和现代金融危机机制,最后对中国金融如何才能保证安全作简要分析。具体章节安排如下：
第一章是导论,明确研究的背景、对象、研究方法与思路。通过对虚拟经济与金融危机问题研究现状的分析,确定本文的突破点,即资本主义经济的发展到底有哪些改变?为什么有这些改变?这些改变对当资本主义经济带来了怎样的变化和影响?
第二章对经济发展中的经济虚拟化趋势进行分析,这是本文研究的逻辑起点。通过对虚拟经济概念的界定及其特征、内在演进机制、经济虚拟化背景下经济增长的复杂性、预期与虚拟经济发展的关系及虚拟经济对实体经济增长的作用进行分析,特别是通过分析虚拟经济的起源和快速增长、虚拟经济发展并成为实体经济引导者的原因及其演变的历史进程,为虚拟经济与金融危机问题的研究奠定基础。
第三章研究实体经济与虚拟经济的背离趋势,分析虚拟经济与实体经济背离的宏观因素和微观因素。虚拟经济发展的实质从经济发展过程的意义上看,意味着虚拟经济与实体经济的背离、虚拟经济运行的独立化过程和虚拟经济对实体经济引导作用的变化。虚拟经济与实体经济的背离是必然趋势,虚拟经济与实体经济的背离必然形成泡沫经济,泡沫经济发展的极态就是金融危机
第四章对现代金融危机的显著特征、具体表现形式进行分析,对以往金融危机理论进行梳理和总结。马克思主义经济危机理论的本质,是从资本主义经济作为一种历史地存在的生产方式的内在矛盾出发,将资本主义经济危机确认为一种具有特殊社会原因的经济现象。马克思对资本主义经济危机分析的理论逻辑可概括为：资本主义经济危机的爆发是其生产最终受到社会有支付能力的消费需求限制的结果,而资本主义经济社会有支能力消费需求不足的原因在于资本和劳动收入分配两极分化,资本和劳动收入分配两极分化的原因在于生产资料的资本家占有制度。由于经济危机的根源在于资主义经济的内在矛盾,因而从根本上决定了资本主义经济必然经常地处于经济危机当中。西方早期金融危机理论对金融危机的解释普遍缺乏微观基础,在很大程度上不得不依赖于准心理学的推断,因此只能称其为假说。现代金融危机理论的发展出现了两个明显的趋势：“虚拟化”趋势和综合化趋势。在分析总结以往理论的基础上,从理论角度论证了虚拟经济条件下经济危机日益以金融危机形式显现出来的内在机理。
第五章探讨现代金融危机的形成机制。现代虚拟经济的高度发展是金融危机的发源地,现代金融危机的实质是实体经济危机,进而阐述了现代金融危机的爆发和传导机制,并将金融危机的逻辑概括为：资本主义经济的内在矛盾——资本与劳动的对立导致两极分化——社会有效需求不足——经济呈现生产过剩——政府调控有效需求膨胀——债务违约率上升——金融危机爆发。现代金融危机的传染是各种传导机制综合作用的结果,包括贸易溢出效应、金融溢出效应、季风效应和预期效应。从一定程度上可以说预期传染效应是现代金融危机传导最为突出的特征。
第六章对现代金融危机的生成与传导进行实证。本章的重点在于以前几章分析的理论基础为解释框架,对1997年亚洲金融危机和2008年美国金融危机的生成机制和国际传导进行实证分析。通过比较,对现代金融危机的发生、演变及国际传导提供一个更为全面和清晰的认识：亚洲金融危机的基本原因是亚洲经济发展方式与经济泡沫化；金融市场开放过快,金融监管不力；汇率制度缺乏弹性。结果经济内在缺陷导致投机攻击有机可乘引爆金融危机。美国次贷危机起源于间接融资消费信用,即美国次级房屋按揭贷款贷放失控；放大于直接融资CDO(抵押债务证券)和MBS(债务支持证券)债券信用在金融投资领域的泛滥膨胀(虚拟经济膨胀泛滥)。循着这一线索,阐述了美国经济增长特征、政府宏观调方式、经济结构失衡、美元本位制与金融危机间的关系,从而对美国金融危机原因的分析形成一个合乎逻辑的解释框架。
第七章分析的重点在于对中国经济开放过程中的不确定因素、全球经济不稳定对中国经济的冲击和负面影响进行阐释,目的在于从世界虚拟经济发展演变的客观背景出发,期望从中总结出能有效地指导中国经济改革开放过程中虚拟经济实践的原则和政策。最后分析了中国改革开放中如何通过对金融体系的稳定性重构、如何在金融开放过程中更多地参与国际金融事务来保证中国金融安全。
作者试图努力在四个方面有所创新：(1)当代金融危机的根源,仍然是资本主义经济的内在矛盾——收入两极分化。基本的结论是：金融危机的直接根源在于债务违约率的持续大规模上升；而债务违约的原因在于社会公众未来预期遭到了沉重打击；未来预期的悲观在于居民和政府“透支消费”的不可持续；透支消费的起因是为了缓解生产过剩；生产过剩起因于有效需求不足；而有效需求不足的根源在于资本主义经济的内在矛盾。这样,现代金融危机的逻辑就清晰地呈现出来了：资本主义经济的内在矛盾——贫富差距扩大——有效需求不足——生产过剩——持续大规摸扩大需求——债务违约率上升——金融危机。因此,从马克思主义经济学的逻辑来看,资本主义经济以生产相对过剩为特征的古典危机与现代金融危机并无本质不同,其实质都是生产过剩危机。它们之间的区别仅在于：在古典危机中,生产相对过剩是以有效需求不足直接表现出来,最终引发金融动荡；而在现代金融危机中,生产过剩不再直接表现为有效需求不足,而是表现为有效需求膨胀引发的债务违约大规模持续上升,由此引发金融动荡。从古典危机演变为现代金融危机,只不过是把资本主义经济内在矛盾的爆发从生产领域推到了金融领域。(2)提出了资本主义经济的生产过剩,由有效需求不足转变为有效需求膨胀。虽然从1930年代起西方市场经济国家已经开始用宏观调控和建立消费社会来克服经济危机,用远远脱离实际需求的消费欲望来拉动有效需求,以克服资本主义经济导致的社会有效需求不足。但正因为资本主义经济无止境的增长成为维系经济正常运行的既定条件,只要生产不再能够扩大,往往会发生严重的经济危机。因此,以马克思主义经济学的基本理论逻辑来看,现代金融危机与资本主义的古典危机都是生产过剩危机。在现代金融危机中,由于宏观调控和建立消费社会克服经济危机这两种“扩大需求”措施的形成,生产过剩不再直接表现为有效需求不足,而是表现为有效需求的膨胀。从古典危机演变为现代金融危机,只不过是把资本主义经济内在矛盾的爆发从现时推到了未来。(3)概括了现代金融危机的主要特征和传染机制：金融危机发生的潜伏期较长,对政府影响巨大；金融危机具有主导性和超前性；金融危机的蔓延和传染呈全球化趋势；金融危机更容易在新兴市场国家爆发的区域性特征。现代金融危机传导是一系列因素相互综合作用的结果。总括而论,现代金融危机的传导机制包括贸易溢出效应、金融溢出效应、季风效应和预期效应。从一定意义上说,预期传染效应是现代金融危机传导最突出的特征。(4)系统梳理了金融风险的聚集过程,并将金融危机形成过程概括为四个阶段。从整个产业周期来看,金融风险的形成与自我膨胀机制可概括如下：第一阶段,经济持续繁荣,形成投资将会持续扩张的现象。第二阶段,金融资产价格持续上涨,形成泡沫经济现象。第三阶段,因投资及投机使市场流动性减少,资金需求显著增大,利率上升。’第四阶段,金融资产价格的下跌和实体经济的困境迫使政府采取措施以稳定经济,但如果政府的措施无法提振市场信心,则市场上持续抛售金融资产的行为不会停止,金融资产价格大幅下跌,从而陷入金融危机的深渊。简言之,从产业周期来看,金融危机的形成表现为下列典型的过程：经济繁荣——贷款扩张——金融资产交易持续扩大、资产价格暴涨——利率上升、回收资金和贷款——资产价格暴跌——金融危机。
由于能力和资料的原因,加之虚拟经济领域比较广泛,作者对虚拟经济分析对象的概括可能存在遗漏,这会使结论的说服力受到影响：由于是对虚拟经济这一客观现象从不同的视角进行描述和分析,因而在论文中仍有一些观点被重复讲了多次,连自己都觉得有点“唠唠叨叨”；论文的结构和文字也存在诸多可商榷的余地。这些都是今后将进一步努力完善的方向。至于自己的一得之见,是否确当,自己无法断言,只有留给世人去评说了。作者贯穿论文始终的,是希望不断地探索、认识和领悟现代虚拟经济良序运行的基本规律,致力于建设明天更美好的新中国。
Financial crisis is one of the most discussed topics in economics. In the long history of human civilization, especially during the years after Industrial Revolution, financial crisis emerged as a 'serious illness' and has been entangling the global economy along the way. All financial crises that occurred in history have left economists pondering and contemplating endlessly.
This paper explores the mechanism of financial crisis in the era of'fictitious economy' or 'financial deepening'. Since the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis erupted in2008and soon spread into a global financial crisis, extensive research has been conducted from multiple angles by the academic circle and yielded substantial results. Too much attention, however, has been placed on finding direct causes of the crisis and its influence on global economy, rather than a comprehensive study from the point of view of dynamic economic development. How to interpret the2008financial crisis? We, of course, shouldn't neglect the history. Since1825when the first global crisis of overproduction swept over Britain, capitalist economies have found themselves caught in a seemingly endless procession of periodical financial crisis. An observation is not difficult to draw that: economic crises of different times broke up in different forms and displayed distinctive characteristics. This was quite obvious after World War Ⅱ that as the capitalism-led global economy experienced profound changes, reoccurring economic crises differentiated themselves from each other in terms of frequency, strength, and forms. While before the twentieth century economic crises mostly appeared in the form of overproduction, stagflation in the1970s, and financial crises in emerging markets in the late twentieth century, the one, more recently, presented itself by emerging first as the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in2008and then developed into a global financial crisis. So how do economic crises of different times internally relate to each other? Do they have the same origins? What is the logic of their evolution? Not only are these questions worth continuous discussion, they are also significant theoretical and practical queries that economics ought to answer.
Admittedly, various explanations provided by the academic circle indeed have revealed the direct causes of the U.S. financial crisis, we, however, still have to query:what factors caused the subprime mortgage and derivatives bubbles in the U.S.? How did the global economic imbalance and the U.S. economic imbalance relate to each other? What factors were responsible for such imbalances? If to explore these questions further, the U.S. financial crisis may not be satisfyingly clarified by simply listing both dominant and recessive structural problems existing in the economy.
It is an undeniable fact that modern financial crisis is contagious. Since US dollars are a global currency, the contagiousness of U.S. financial crises accordingly has its uniqueness. The history of global financial crises reveals that crisis'contagiousness displays different features under different monetary systems: under the gold system and Breton Woods Monetary System, financial crisis usually led to global or regional deflation. Yet under Dollar Standard, due to factors of interest rate fluctuation becoming a long-term trend, the not-yet-perfectly-formed international balance of payments regulation mechanism and the US Dollar hegemony, financial crises appeared to occur and spread more rapidly, especially after1990s when economic globalization accelerated and financial crisis started to draw broader influence on global economy; moreover, with the actual establishment of the dollar standard system, U.S. financial crises displayed an obvious transmission effect at a large scale. Under Dollar Standard, the U.S., dependent on its economic power, transferred its financial crises to the rest of the world through trade, finance, monsoonal effect and psychological expectations.
These questions undoubtedly hold great theoretical and practical significance. This paper, under the background of the deepening of fictitious economy, explores 'the mechanism of financial crisis in fictitious economy'. The study is built upon Marxist economic crisis theory and based on the history and current situation of capitalist economy. The focuses of the study is the development of fictitious economy and the strengthening of government intervention, two major trends of contemporary capitalism. Both normative and positive analysis methods are used. Through the comparison between transformation of capitalist governmental functions and new trends of economic crises arouse from acceleration of fictitious economy deepening, this paper considers that the macroeconomic regulation imposed by capitalist governments after World War II has transferred into a conscientious, proactive, and active act from an inactive and passive one. The lengthening of macroeconomic regulation will inevitably bring structural change to economic operation, a switch featured with the formation of consumption society and debt countries and expansion of fictitious economy. However, fictitious economy's expansion and financial innovation will inevitably lead to an unstable financial market, replacing existing economic crisis with financial crisis. Here, discussion on the financial crisis mechanism is conducted at three levels:first to demonstrate the meaning of fictitious economy and trends in its development, second to analyze topics such as the deviation tendency between fictitious economy and real economy, characteristics of modern financial crisis and the financial crisis mechanism, third to briefly elaborate how China can maintain its financial security. There are seven chapters:
Chapter1, the introduction, identifies research background, objectives, and methodology. After reviewing existing research on fictitious economy and financial crisis, the paper finds its key questions that what changes have been brought by capitalist economic development? Why did such changes occur? What impact did these changes place on capitalist economy?
Chapter2analyzes the trend of deepening of fictitious economy, which is the logic starting point of this paper. Discussion about fictitious economy paves the way for further study on fictitious economy itself and financial crisis. This chapter discusses about the concept, characteristics, mechanism of internal evolution, and complexity of fictitious economy, the relationship between its development and expectation, fictitious economy's impact on real economy, the origin of fictitious economy, and the causes of it becoming an economic driving force and its evolution process accordingly in particular.
Chapter3examines deviation between real and fictitious economies and both macroeconomic and microeconomic factors that cause such deviation. The development of fictitious economy, from the point of view of economic development process, appears in three facets:deviation between fictitious and real economies, functioning of fictitious economy becoming more and more independent, and fictitious economy evolving into a driving force to real economy. Deviation between fictitious and real economies is inevitable, which will inevitably lead to occurrence of bubble economy. The extreme form of bubble economy is financial crisis.
Chapter4reviews key features of financial crisis, their embodiment in real life and previous financial crisis theories. Essentially, Marxist economic crisis theory identifies capitalist economic crisis as an economic phenomenon with unique social origins, based on the fact that capitalist is an existing production mode and has its own inner contradictions. The logic of Marxist economic crisis theory can be summarized as:capitalist economic crisis is a result of production restricted by insufficient effective consumption demand, and insufficient demand is resulted from income disparity between capital and labor. Such disparity is. caused by ownership of production materials by capitalists. Since capitalist economic crisis is essentially caused by capitalist economy's inner contradictions, which decides the periodical occurrence of economic crisis. Early western theory's explanations about financial crisis commonly lacked micro-foundation and to a large extent had to rely on inference drawn from quasi-psychology. Therefore, these explanations could only be viewed as hypothesis. Two trends have emerged from the development of modern financial crisis theories:'fictionalization' and integration. This paper, based on previous theory, theoretically expounds the internal mechanism of economic crisis as under the background of fictitious economy it increasingly appears in the form of financial crisis.
Chapter5explores the mechanism for formation of modern financial crisis. Fast growth of modern fictitious economy is the cradle of modern financial crisis, which, in essence, is crisis of real economy. The paper further discusses the mechanism of transmission of modern financial crisis. The two mechanisms can be summarized as:inner contradictions of capitalist economy-disparity between capital and labor force-insufficient effective demand-overproduction governmental regulation and effective demand bubble-increase of default rate-eruption of financial crisis. Contagion of modern financial crisis is an integrated result of a series of interactive factors, including trade spillover effect, financial spillover effect, monsoonal effect, and expectation effect. Contagion effect to a certain degree is the most distinctive characteristic of modern financial crisis.
Chapter6intends to empirically prove the occurrence and transmission of modern financial crisis. By utilizing theories in previous chapters as explanatory framework, this chapter takes the1997Asian financial crisis and the2008U.S. financial crisis as examples and analyzes the mechanism of formation and transmission of financial crisis in general. Through comparison, this paper has gained a better understanding of the formation, evolution and transmission process: the1997Asian financial crisis was fundamentally attributed to its economic development model and economic bubble, financial market overexpansion and slacking supervision, and inelastic exchange rate system. As a result, its economic internal flaws made speculative attack find its chance to ignite the crisis. US subprime mortgage crisis was originated from indirect consumer financing and subprime housing mortgage bubble; continued strong demand for MBS (mortgage-backed security) and CDO (collateralized debt obligation) began to overflow in the financial market. The paper also demonstrates important points such as characteristics of U.S. economic growth, U.S. governmental regulation mode, structural imbalance in the economy, the relationship between dollar standard system and financial crisis, and establishes a logical framework to explain causes of the U.S. financial crisis.
Chapter7mainly explores uncertainties existing in China's economic reform and opening-up and their impact, both positive and negative, on China's economy. The paper aims to provide sound policy implications that can effectively guide China's economic practice under the background of deepening of fictitious economy. The paper lastly analyzes how China can more actively participate in global financial affairs through restructuring its financial stability and opening up its financial market, eternally, to protect its financial security.
The paper attempts to make innovation in the following four fields:(1) modern financial crisis is fundamentally caused by capitalism's inner contradictions---income disparity. The basic conclusion is that financial crisis is directly attributed to the continued extensive increase in default rate; growing default is caused by the smacked expectation of the public upon the future; pessimistic expectation is resulted from the discontinuity of overdrawn consumption by citizen and government; overdrawn consumption arises with the attempt to reduce overproduction; overproduction is originated from insufficient effective demand; and insufficient demand is attributed to capitalism's inner contradiction. In this way, the logic of modern financial crisis can be clearly seen: capitalism's inner contradiction-disparity between the rich and the poor insufficient effective demand-overproduction-continuously and extensively growing demand-increase of default rate-financial crisis. Therefore, in the view of Marxist economics, classical crisis and modern financial crisis are the same in essence that both are overproduction. The only distinction between the two is that for classical crisis, overproduction is embodied in insufficient effective demand, while for modern financial crisis, overproduction is displayed through continuously and extensively growing debt default, which is caused by demand bubble. From classical crisis to modern financial crisis, it is only a process that capitalism's inner contradiction is transmitted from production to finance.(2) Overproduction in capitalist economy can viewed as insufficient effective demand transformed into demand bubble. Although since1930s, Western economies have started using macroeconomic regulation and establishing consumption society to overcome economic crisis, an attempt to stimulate effective consumption by fueling far-fetched demand. Yet as the ever-growing economy has become the foundation to ensure the normal functioning of the society, once production stops expanding and serious economic crisis may occur. Therefore, from the view of Marxist economics, classical crisis and modern financial crisis are the same in essence that both are overproduction. In modern financial crisis, thanks to the establishment of two'fueling consumption'techniques to conquer the crisis, macroeconomic regulation and consumption society, overproduction is embodied as demand bubble instead of insufficient effective demand. From classical crisis to modern financial crisis, it is only a process that the eruption of capitalism's inner contradiction is postponed from now to the future.(3) Key features and transmission mechanism of modern financial crisis:long latent period, big influence on government, being dominant and advanced, global contagion, more venerable emerging markets. Transmission of modern financial crisis is an integrated result of a series of interactive factors. In a word, the transmission mechanism of modem financial crisis includes trade spillover effect, financial spillover effect, monsoonal effect and expectation effect. Contagion effect, to a certain degree, is the most distinctive characteristic of modern financial crisis.(4) Accumulation and formation processes of modern financial crisis. In terms of production circle, the formation process can be summarized into four stages: stages1, continued economic prosperity leading to investment expansion; stage2, continued price increase in financial asset resulting in bubble economy; stage3, investment and speculation decreasing market mobility, increasing demand for capital and interest rate; stage4, decline in financial asset price and governmental regulation forced by economic downturn, but if government fails to stimulate market confidence, asset dumping will continue, asset price will plunge, and financial crisis will emerge. Briefly speaking, in terms of production circle, financial crisis is typically formed as follows:economic prosperity-debt bubble-increase in asset trade and sudden rise in asset price-increase in exchange rate, capital recovery and debt-sudden decline in asset price-financial crisis.
Due to the fact that fictitious economy is a broad subject, along with my limited knowledge and access to resources, this paper may be found with errors of omission, which can undermine its persuasiveness. The discussion, undertaking a multi-angled approach, may appear a bit prolix even to the author as some arguments have been repeated more than once. How to structure and phrase the paper still remains to be discussed. All of these provide me guidance for future improvement. As for the arguments, they are left for the readers to judge. My continuous effort devoted into this paper is to explore the basic law of a healthily-functioning modern fictitious economy, in hope of building a new China with a brighter future.
引文
① 马克思、恩格斯：《马克思恩格斯选集》第一卷,人民出版社,1995年版,第57页。
① 资料来源：国际证券交易所联合会(http://www.world-exchanges.org/[Z],国际清算银行(http://www.bis. org[Z],国际货币基金组织(http://www.imf.org/excernal/date.htm#sc/[Z]。
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① 曾康霖：《虚拟经济：经济活动的新领域》,中国金融出版社2003年版第26页。
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① 转引自成思危主编：《东南亚金融危机的分析与启示》,民主与建设出版社1999年版第7页。
① 资料来源：IMF,《金融部门危机与重组》中译本,中国金融出版社2000年版。
② 转引自成思危主编：《东南亚金融危机的分析与启示》,民主与建设出版社1999年版。
① 资料来源：IMF,《金融部门危机与重组》中译本,中国金融出版社2000年版。
① 资料来源：李石凯,《新世纪美国的贸易逆差、财政逆差与税收政策》,载《社会科学》2008年第二期。
② 资料来源：王中宇,《美国虚拟经济的形成与坍塌》,载《中证网》,2008年10月21日；孙时连等：《美国金融危机深层次思考与对策》,载《国际金融报》,2008年10月31日。
① 资料来源：王中宇,《美国虚拟经济的形成与坍塌》,载《中证网》,2008年10月21日：孙时连等：《美国金融危机深层次思考与对策》,载《国际金融报》,2008年10月31日。
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