中国低利率政策研究
|
摘要
利率水平的高低是一个国家在一时期内生产效率、发展战略、市场竞争、社会发展等因素的综合反映。国家会根据经济发展战略和宏观经济形势需要调节利率水平。美国和日本等国家在历史上都曾长期实行了低利率政策。2008年美国金融危机后，为刺激世界经济复苏，全球各主要经济体普遍执行了低利率政策。从1978年改革开放到2011年的30多年时间里，中国实行了低利率政策。30多年时间里，中国金融机构实际存款利率平均约等于零。
本文通过科学界定低利率和低利率政策的内涵，对各主要经济体实行的低利率政策的具体剖析，对低利率的形成及其政策进行系统的理论分析，为中国利率市场化改革提供理论支撑，有比较重要的理论意义和实践价值。存款作为一种生产要素，应该获得与其相匹配的收益，无论在管制利率条件下还是市场化利率条件下，考虑到通货膨胀的因素，存款的真实收益为极低、为零、为负，都是利率偏低的表现，是推行低利率政策的结果。资金借出者真实收益极低是本文判断低利率政策的基本理论出发点。
随着国内经济的发展，中国实行的低利率政策及信贷配给制度，带来的负面效应日益增加。加之中国经济更加深入地融入全球经济，中国低利率政策面临着更多的困境和不确定因素。因此，迫切需要深入研究、重新审视中国执行多年的低利率政策。同时，低利率政策改革是抑制通货膨胀的需要，更是促进经济发展方式从依靠政府投资拉动为主向国内居民消费拉动为主转变的需要。厘清低利率政策的国内国际效应，给出切实可行的对策，对促进经济发展方式转变、推动改革开放的进一步深入有重要意义。
改革开放以来，低利率政策是中国的基本金融政策之一。根据改革开放以来的利率水平，主要是存款利率和贷款利率水平，应用低利率理论分析，判断出中国的利率政策是比较典型的低利率政策。低利率政策是中国改革开放三十余年来投资拉动的经济发展方式的重要政策工具之一，在中国三十余年的高速发展中发挥了积极作用。中国低利率政策对经济高速增长的促进作用主要体现在刺激投资增长。在中国经济发展初期，经济的快速增长是靠投资的迅速增长拉动的。通过实行低利率政策，直接降低投资者的融资成本，同时也降低投资形成以后的运作成本，刺激投资需求的增加。同时，由于中国居民储蓄的利率弹性很低，低利率政策又不会引起储蓄的大量减少，也就不会影响投资所需要的资金来源，这样，低利率政策就极有效地刺激了投资，进而刺激了经济的快速发展。同时，低利率政策为中国现代金融体系和以商业银行为主体的融资体系的建设提供了关键性的条件。
低利率政策在促进经济增长的同时，不可避免地带来了一些负面影响。首先，低利率政策推高通货膨胀和资产泡沫，特别是房地产泡沫。当前，通货膨胀问题已经成为了影响经济发展的主要问题之一，以高房价为代表的资产泡沫也成为了重要的经济和社会难题。其次，低利率政策导致过度投资、投资低效率和产能过剩。在利率形成机制不能真正反映资金稀缺程度的情况下，某些市场主体能够获得低于市场均衡水平的资金并赚取超额利润，最终导致投资过剩等一系列问题。低利率政策不仅使各种资源被过度利用，而且刺激了根本不具备进入市场条件的低效率的项目投资。政府推行的低利率偏离市场均衡利率越多，资源被过度使用的可能就越大，生产效率就可能越低。再次，低利率政策损害储蓄者利益，降低了储蓄者收入，不利于扩大居民消费。尤其在居民收入问题成为影响经济发展和社会稳定的主要问题之一时，国家控制下的低存款利率政策的合理性应该重新探讨，低利率政策面临改革和转型。
改革低利率政策十分迫切，同时面临的困境很复杂。现代市场经济中，利率越来越成为影响面最广、影响程度最深的经济变量之一。任何对利率制度的重大改革都有可能给整个经济体系带来剧烈震动。所以，在中国推行低利率政策改革，必须考虑中国所处的经济环境，这不仅关系到利率政策调整的成败，更关系到长远的经济发展。首先，国有企业是低利率政策的主要受益者，低利率政策改革首先要考虑国有企业在丧失低利率政策保护后能否有自生能力，能否完成国家对国有企业战略定位要求。其次，金融机构是低利率政策的另一个主要受益者，低利率政策改革要考虑对金融机构发展和金融环境稳定的重大影响。最后，要处理好低利率政策改革与汇率改革、外汇储备改革体制、国际投机资本管理和人民币升值压力之间的复杂关系。
利率市场化是中国低利率政策改革的根本方法，即由市场供求和竞争决定利率水平的高低和波动。政府、金融当局、商业银行和国有企业都要为低利率政策改革做好充分的准备。在低利率政策改革过程中，要通过逐步提高存款利率、尽快取消信贷配给、必要时开征负利息税，以达到改善现有利率管制的目的。存贷款利率的市场化是利率市场化的核心和难点，也是改革低利率政策的关键。要通过大额存款利率市场化、债务工具利率市场化、促进全社会各种融资方法的流动和大力发展直接融资逐步实现利率市场化。在利率市场化的过程中，必须严格控制利率市场化可能带来的各种风险。
本文主要结论有：一是低利率政策能提高中国经济发展的速度，但不能促使经济实现稳定、高效、长期发展。二是低利率政策的改革中国特色社会主义市场经济改革的一部分，低利率政策改革的目标是建立可持续的经济发展方式，充满活力的微观经济主体和稳健高效的金融体系，其基本思路是利率市场化。三是低利率政策改革不存在固定的模式，成功的关键在于选择好若干关键突破点，并控制好改革风险。
The level of interest rate of a country in a certain period is a comprehensivereflect of production efficiency, development strategy, market competition, socialdevelopment and other factors of the country in the period. The state will adjust thelevel of interest rate according to the strategy of economic development and the needof macroeconomic situation. The United States, Japan and other countries have beenimplement long-term low interest rates policy historically. To stimulate the recoveryof the world economy, the world's major economies implement the policy of lowinterest rates widespread after the2008United States Financial Crisis. Chinaimplemented the policy of low interest rates last more than30years from1978,when the policies of Reforming and Opening began, to2011. In the more than30years, the average real deposit rate of Chinese financial institutions is about equal tozero.
This dissertation provided theory support to the market-oriented rate reform ofmarketization of interest rate in China through the scientific definition of low interestrates and low interest rates policy, and specific analysis on policy of low interestrates of each main economy, and systematic theoretical analysis on the formation oflow rates and its policy, which has important theoretical significance and practicalvalue. As a factor of production, the deposit should be matched with return. Soconsidering inflation, no matter in terms of regulated interest rate or market-orientedinterest rate, the real income of deposit is extremely low or is zero, even is negative,which is the performance of low interest rates, is also the results of implementationof the low interest rates policy. The real yield of money lenders is extremely low,which is the basic theoretical starting point to the judgment of low interest ratespolicy in this dissertation.
With the development of the domestic economy of China, the negative effect ofpolicy of low interest rate and credit rationing is increasing. In addition to the furtherintegration into the global economy of Chinese economy, China’s low interest ratespolicy is faced with more difficulties and uncertainties. Therefore, it is an urgentneed to study in-depth, and examine afresh low interest rates policy in China whichhad been implemented for years. At the same time, to reform the low interest rates policy is in need for restraining inflation,and especially is in need for promotingeconomic development mode from to rely on pulling from governmental investmentto move towards to pulling from domestic consumption. Disentangling domestic andinternational effect of the low interest rates policy, giving the feasiblecountermeasures has huge significance to promoting the transformation of the modeof economic development, and to promoting the further deepening of reform andopening up.
Since reforming and opening, low interest rates policy has been one of the mostimportant financial policies of China. According to the level of interest rates sincethe reforming and opening, mainly to the level of deposit rates and loan interestrates, applying analysis of low rates theory, it can be judged that the interest ratespolicy of China is typical an low interest rates policy. Low interest rates policy is animportant policy within investment-led economic development mode in more thanthirty years since China's reform and opening up, and has played a positive role inrapid development of China's economy more than thirty years. The promoting role ofChina's low interest rates policy on economic growth mainly embodies instimulating investment growth. The rapid economic growth depends on the rapidinvestment growth in the early stage of China's economic development. Through theimplementation of the policy of low interest rates, it can be not only directly reduceinvestor's financing cost, but also reduce the operation cost after the formation of theinvestment, and at last stimulating investment demand increases. At the same time,since the interest rate elasticity of savings in China is very low, low interest ratespolicy will not cause a significant decrease in savings, so will not influence thesource of funds that the investment required. Therefore the low interest rates policyis extremely effective in stimulating investment, and stimulating the rapiddevelopment of economy. At the same time, the low interest rate policy provided acritical condition for China's modern financial system and construction of China'sfinancing system with commercial banks as its main body.
Although low interest rates policy has been promoted economic growth, itinevitably brings some negative effects. Firstly, the low interest rates policy pushesup inflation and asset bubbles, particularly the real estate bubble. At present, theproblem of inflation has become one of the major problems affecting economicdevelopment, with high prices as the representative, and the asset bubble has also become a major economic and social problem. Secondly, the low interest rates policyleads to overinvestment and, low investment efficiency and excess productioncapacity. Under the condition of which the mechanism of interest rate can formingcannot truly reflect the degree of scarcity of funds, some market body can obtainfunds which below the market equilibrium level and can earn excess profits, whicheventually led to a series of problems such as the excess of investment. Low interestrates policy not only makes excessive use of resource, but also stimulates lowefficiency project investment that does not have conditions to enter the market. Themore low interest rates implemented by government deviates from interest rate withthe market equilibrium, the more the possibility may be the greater that the resourceis excessive use, and the more the production efficiency is low. Thirdly, the policy oflow interest rates damages savers' interest, and reduces the savings income, and isdisadvantageous to the expansion of consumption. When especially the residents'income problem becomes one of the main issues that influences economydevelopment and social stability, the rationality of low savings rate policy under thecontrol of the state should be discussed afresh, and low interest rates policy needsreform and transition.
Reforming low interest rates policy is very urgent, but which faced with verycomplex dilemmas. In modern market economy, interest rate has become one of themost important economic variables which have deepest and extensive influence. Anymajor interest rate reform is likely to bring strong vibration to the whole economicsystem. Therefore, to reform China's policy of low interest rates, the economicenvironment of China must be considered, which is not only related to the success orfailure of the adjustment of interest rate policy, but also related to the long-termeconomic development. First of all, the state-owned enterprises are the mainbeneficiaries of the policy of low interest rates, so low interest rates policy reformshould firstly consider that the state-owned enterprises can or not have autogenouslycapacity after the loss of the low interest rates policy protection, and can or notcomplete the strategic positioning requirements by government. Secondly, financialinstitutions are another major beneficiary of the policy of low interest rates, so lowinterest rates policy reform should consider the development of financial institutionsand great influence to the stability of financial environment. Finally, we shouldhandle the complex relationship between the low interest rates policy reform to the reform of the exchange rate, and to the reform of foreign exchange reserve, and tothe international speculative capital management, and to the pressure of appreciationof the RMB.
The marketization of interest rate is the Fundamental method of the reform ofChina's policy of low interest rates, namely the level and volatility of interest rate isdecided by the supply and demand and competition in market. The government,financial authorities, commercial banks and state-owned enterprises all need fullypreparations for the low interest rates policy reform. In the reform process of lowinterest rates policy, we should gradually raise deposit interest rates, abolish creditrationing as soon as possible, and introduce a negative interest tax when necessary,in order to remiss the existing rate control. The marketization of deposit and loaninterest rate is the key and difficult point of interest rates marketization, also is thekey of reform the policy of low interest rates. We should gradually realize themarketization of interest rate through marketization of interest rate of large depositand debt instruments, and through promoting flow all kinds of financing methods inthe whole society and vigorously developing direct financing. In the process ofinterest rate marketization, all sorts of risks brought by the marketization of interestrate must be strictly controlled.
In this dissertation, the main conclusions are as follow: firstly, the low interestrates policy can improve the speed of China's economic development, but cannotpromote economic stability, high efficiency, and long term development. Secondly,the reform of low interest rates policy is a part of socialism market economy reformwith Chinese characteristics; the goal of reform of low interest rates policy is toestablish a sustainable economic development patterns, robust microcosmiceconomy bodies and a stable and efficient financial system, and its basic train ofthought is the marketization of interest rate. Thirdly, the reform of low interest ratespolicy has no fixed modes; the key to success is to select several criticalbreakthroughs, and to control the reform risks.
本文通过科学界定低利率和低利率政策的内涵，对各主要经济体实行的低利率政策的具体剖析，对低利率的形成及其政策进行系统的理论分析，为中国利率市场化改革提供理论支撑，有比较重要的理论意义和实践价值。存款作为一种生产要素，应该获得与其相匹配的收益，无论在管制利率条件下还是市场化利率条件下，考虑到通货膨胀的因素，存款的真实收益为极低、为零、为负，都是利率偏低的表现，是推行低利率政策的结果。资金借出者真实收益极低是本文判断低利率政策的基本理论出发点。
随着国内经济的发展，中国实行的低利率政策及信贷配给制度，带来的负面效应日益增加。加之中国经济更加深入地融入全球经济，中国低利率政策面临着更多的困境和不确定因素。因此，迫切需要深入研究、重新审视中国执行多年的低利率政策。同时，低利率政策改革是抑制通货膨胀的需要，更是促进经济发展方式从依靠政府投资拉动为主向国内居民消费拉动为主转变的需要。厘清低利率政策的国内国际效应，给出切实可行的对策，对促进经济发展方式转变、推动改革开放的进一步深入有重要意义。
改革开放以来，低利率政策是中国的基本金融政策之一。根据改革开放以来的利率水平，主要是存款利率和贷款利率水平，应用低利率理论分析，判断出中国的利率政策是比较典型的低利率政策。低利率政策是中国改革开放三十余年来投资拉动的经济发展方式的重要政策工具之一，在中国三十余年的高速发展中发挥了积极作用。中国低利率政策对经济高速增长的促进作用主要体现在刺激投资增长。在中国经济发展初期，经济的快速增长是靠投资的迅速增长拉动的。通过实行低利率政策，直接降低投资者的融资成本，同时也降低投资形成以后的运作成本，刺激投资需求的增加。同时，由于中国居民储蓄的利率弹性很低，低利率政策又不会引起储蓄的大量减少，也就不会影响投资所需要的资金来源，这样，低利率政策就极有效地刺激了投资，进而刺激了经济的快速发展。同时，低利率政策为中国现代金融体系和以商业银行为主体的融资体系的建设提供了关键性的条件。
低利率政策在促进经济增长的同时，不可避免地带来了一些负面影响。首先，低利率政策推高通货膨胀和资产泡沫，特别是房地产泡沫。当前，通货膨胀问题已经成为了影响经济发展的主要问题之一，以高房价为代表的资产泡沫也成为了重要的经济和社会难题。其次，低利率政策导致过度投资、投资低效率和产能过剩。在利率形成机制不能真正反映资金稀缺程度的情况下，某些市场主体能够获得低于市场均衡水平的资金并赚取超额利润，最终导致投资过剩等一系列问题。低利率政策不仅使各种资源被过度利用，而且刺激了根本不具备进入市场条件的低效率的项目投资。政府推行的低利率偏离市场均衡利率越多，资源被过度使用的可能就越大，生产效率就可能越低。再次，低利率政策损害储蓄者利益，降低了储蓄者收入，不利于扩大居民消费。尤其在居民收入问题成为影响经济发展和社会稳定的主要问题之一时，国家控制下的低存款利率政策的合理性应该重新探讨，低利率政策面临改革和转型。
改革低利率政策十分迫切，同时面临的困境很复杂。现代市场经济中，利率越来越成为影响面最广、影响程度最深的经济变量之一。任何对利率制度的重大改革都有可能给整个经济体系带来剧烈震动。所以，在中国推行低利率政策改革，必须考虑中国所处的经济环境，这不仅关系到利率政策调整的成败，更关系到长远的经济发展。首先，国有企业是低利率政策的主要受益者，低利率政策改革首先要考虑国有企业在丧失低利率政策保护后能否有自生能力，能否完成国家对国有企业战略定位要求。其次，金融机构是低利率政策的另一个主要受益者，低利率政策改革要考虑对金融机构发展和金融环境稳定的重大影响。最后，要处理好低利率政策改革与汇率改革、外汇储备改革体制、国际投机资本管理和人民币升值压力之间的复杂关系。
利率市场化是中国低利率政策改革的根本方法，即由市场供求和竞争决定利率水平的高低和波动。政府、金融当局、商业银行和国有企业都要为低利率政策改革做好充分的准备。在低利率政策改革过程中，要通过逐步提高存款利率、尽快取消信贷配给、必要时开征负利息税，以达到改善现有利率管制的目的。存贷款利率的市场化是利率市场化的核心和难点，也是改革低利率政策的关键。要通过大额存款利率市场化、债务工具利率市场化、促进全社会各种融资方法的流动和大力发展直接融资逐步实现利率市场化。在利率市场化的过程中，必须严格控制利率市场化可能带来的各种风险。
本文主要结论有：一是低利率政策能提高中国经济发展的速度，但不能促使经济实现稳定、高效、长期发展。二是低利率政策的改革中国特色社会主义市场经济改革的一部分，低利率政策改革的目标是建立可持续的经济发展方式，充满活力的微观经济主体和稳健高效的金融体系，其基本思路是利率市场化。三是低利率政策改革不存在固定的模式，成功的关键在于选择好若干关键突破点，并控制好改革风险。
The level of interest rate of a country in a certain period is a comprehensivereflect of production efficiency, development strategy, market competition, socialdevelopment and other factors of the country in the period. The state will adjust thelevel of interest rate according to the strategy of economic development and the needof macroeconomic situation. The United States, Japan and other countries have beenimplement long-term low interest rates policy historically. To stimulate the recoveryof the world economy, the world's major economies implement the policy of lowinterest rates widespread after the2008United States Financial Crisis. Chinaimplemented the policy of low interest rates last more than30years from1978,when the policies of Reforming and Opening began, to2011. In the more than30years, the average real deposit rate of Chinese financial institutions is about equal tozero.
This dissertation provided theory support to the market-oriented rate reform ofmarketization of interest rate in China through the scientific definition of low interestrates and low interest rates policy, and specific analysis on policy of low interestrates of each main economy, and systematic theoretical analysis on the formation oflow rates and its policy, which has important theoretical significance and practicalvalue. As a factor of production, the deposit should be matched with return. Soconsidering inflation, no matter in terms of regulated interest rate or market-orientedinterest rate, the real income of deposit is extremely low or is zero, even is negative,which is the performance of low interest rates, is also the results of implementationof the low interest rates policy. The real yield of money lenders is extremely low,which is the basic theoretical starting point to the judgment of low interest ratespolicy in this dissertation.
With the development of the domestic economy of China, the negative effect ofpolicy of low interest rate and credit rationing is increasing. In addition to the furtherintegration into the global economy of Chinese economy, China’s low interest ratespolicy is faced with more difficulties and uncertainties. Therefore, it is an urgentneed to study in-depth, and examine afresh low interest rates policy in China whichhad been implemented for years. At the same time, to reform the low interest rates policy is in need for restraining inflation,and especially is in need for promotingeconomic development mode from to rely on pulling from governmental investmentto move towards to pulling from domestic consumption. Disentangling domestic andinternational effect of the low interest rates policy, giving the feasiblecountermeasures has huge significance to promoting the transformation of the modeof economic development, and to promoting the further deepening of reform andopening up.
Since reforming and opening, low interest rates policy has been one of the mostimportant financial policies of China. According to the level of interest rates sincethe reforming and opening, mainly to the level of deposit rates and loan interestrates, applying analysis of low rates theory, it can be judged that the interest ratespolicy of China is typical an low interest rates policy. Low interest rates policy is animportant policy within investment-led economic development mode in more thanthirty years since China's reform and opening up, and has played a positive role inrapid development of China's economy more than thirty years. The promoting role ofChina's low interest rates policy on economic growth mainly embodies instimulating investment growth. The rapid economic growth depends on the rapidinvestment growth in the early stage of China's economic development. Through theimplementation of the policy of low interest rates, it can be not only directly reduceinvestor's financing cost, but also reduce the operation cost after the formation of theinvestment, and at last stimulating investment demand increases. At the same time,since the interest rate elasticity of savings in China is very low, low interest ratespolicy will not cause a significant decrease in savings, so will not influence thesource of funds that the investment required. Therefore the low interest rates policyis extremely effective in stimulating investment, and stimulating the rapiddevelopment of economy. At the same time, the low interest rate policy provided acritical condition for China's modern financial system and construction of China'sfinancing system with commercial banks as its main body.
Although low interest rates policy has been promoted economic growth, itinevitably brings some negative effects. Firstly, the low interest rates policy pushesup inflation and asset bubbles, particularly the real estate bubble. At present, theproblem of inflation has become one of the major problems affecting economicdevelopment, with high prices as the representative, and the asset bubble has also become a major economic and social problem. Secondly, the low interest rates policyleads to overinvestment and, low investment efficiency and excess productioncapacity. Under the condition of which the mechanism of interest rate can formingcannot truly reflect the degree of scarcity of funds, some market body can obtainfunds which below the market equilibrium level and can earn excess profits, whicheventually led to a series of problems such as the excess of investment. Low interestrates policy not only makes excessive use of resource, but also stimulates lowefficiency project investment that does not have conditions to enter the market. Themore low interest rates implemented by government deviates from interest rate withthe market equilibrium, the more the possibility may be the greater that the resourceis excessive use, and the more the production efficiency is low. Thirdly, the policy oflow interest rates damages savers' interest, and reduces the savings income, and isdisadvantageous to the expansion of consumption. When especially the residents'income problem becomes one of the main issues that influences economydevelopment and social stability, the rationality of low savings rate policy under thecontrol of the state should be discussed afresh, and low interest rates policy needsreform and transition.
Reforming low interest rates policy is very urgent, but which faced with verycomplex dilemmas. In modern market economy, interest rate has become one of themost important economic variables which have deepest and extensive influence. Anymajor interest rate reform is likely to bring strong vibration to the whole economicsystem. Therefore, to reform China's policy of low interest rates, the economicenvironment of China must be considered, which is not only related to the success orfailure of the adjustment of interest rate policy, but also related to the long-termeconomic development. First of all, the state-owned enterprises are the mainbeneficiaries of the policy of low interest rates, so low interest rates policy reformshould firstly consider that the state-owned enterprises can or not have autogenouslycapacity after the loss of the low interest rates policy protection, and can or notcomplete the strategic positioning requirements by government. Secondly, financialinstitutions are another major beneficiary of the policy of low interest rates, so lowinterest rates policy reform should consider the development of financial institutionsand great influence to the stability of financial environment. Finally, we shouldhandle the complex relationship between the low interest rates policy reform to the reform of the exchange rate, and to the reform of foreign exchange reserve, and tothe international speculative capital management, and to the pressure of appreciationof the RMB.
The marketization of interest rate is the Fundamental method of the reform ofChina's policy of low interest rates, namely the level and volatility of interest rate isdecided by the supply and demand and competition in market. The government,financial authorities, commercial banks and state-owned enterprises all need fullypreparations for the low interest rates policy reform. In the reform process of lowinterest rates policy, we should gradually raise deposit interest rates, abolish creditrationing as soon as possible, and introduce a negative interest tax when necessary,in order to remiss the existing rate control. The marketization of deposit and loaninterest rate is the key and difficult point of interest rates marketization, also is thekey of reform the policy of low interest rates. We should gradually realize themarketization of interest rate through marketization of interest rate of large depositand debt instruments, and through promoting flow all kinds of financing methods inthe whole society and vigorously developing direct financing. In the process ofinterest rate marketization, all sorts of risks brought by the marketization of interestrate must be strictly controlled.
In this dissertation, the main conclusions are as follow: firstly, the low interestrates policy can improve the speed of China's economic development, but cannotpromote economic stability, high efficiency, and long term development. Secondly,the reform of low interest rates policy is a part of socialism market economy reformwith Chinese characteristics; the goal of reform of low interest rates policy is toestablish a sustainable economic development patterns, robust microcosmiceconomy bodies and a stable and efficient financial system, and its basic train ofthought is the marketization of interest rate. Thirdly, the reform of low interest ratespolicy has no fixed modes; the key to success is to select several criticalbreakthroughs, and to control the reform risks.
引文
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第401页．
②同上，第412页．
①吴晓灵．对负利率的理解及对策[A]．谢平．价格的逻辑[C]．北京：中国经济出版社，2011，第315-319页．
①费雪.利息理论[M]．上海：上海人民出版社，1959，第42页．
②亚当斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1972年，第327页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第379页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第401页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第404页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第569页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第405页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第934页．
③马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第929页．
④胡锦涛．高举中国特色理论伟大旗帜为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗——在中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会上的讲话[M]．北京：人民出版社，2007，第38-39页．
①张茉楠．全球低利率挑战才刚开始[N]．上海金融报，2010年10月12日第A02版．
①刘迎秋，韩强，郭宏宇，吕凤勇．利率、债务率汇率与经济增长[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社，2010，第53页．
①邓小平：《邓小平文选》第三卷，《企业改革和金融改革》，人民出版社。
②见2009年4月13日人民日报：《中国银行业交出亮丽答卷》。
①董皓．全唐书第05部，卷四百六十五．上海：上海古籍出版社，2007．
①见2011年11月24日，工业和信息化部运行监测协调局与中国社会科学院工业经济研究所共同发布的《2011年中国工业经济运行秋季报告》．
①巴曙松，王月香．利率市场化提高了银行业的集中度——基于美、日等国的国际比较与借鉴[J]．观察家，2012(4)，第22页．
①人民出版社编．中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
①李若愚．中国低利率状况亟需改变[J]．发展研究，2011年第9期第60页．
②唐旭．金融理论前沿课题（第二辑）[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2003．
①刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001，第234页．
②2000年，时任中国人民银行行长的戴相龙在记者招待会上宣布：“中国将用三年时间完成利率开放的整体计划。”此后因种种原因，此次利率市场化改革没能如期推进。
①刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001，第239页．
①韩汉君．经济发展中的利率[M]．上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2004，第289页．
[1]马克思．资本论[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975．
[2]斯密．国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1972．
[3]凯恩斯．就业、利息和货币通论（重译本）[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1999．
[4]格利，肖．金融理论中的货币[M]．上海：三联书店，1988．
[5]麦金农．经济发展中的货币与资本[M]．上海：三联书店，1988．
[6]瓦什．货币理论与政策[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2001．
[7]霍默，西勒．利率史（第四版）[M]．北京：中信出版社，2010．
[8]夏斌，陈道富．中国金融战略[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
[9]宋芳秀．中国转型经济中的资金配置机制和利率市场化研究[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2007．
[10]刘义圣．中国利率市场化改革论纲[M]．北京：北京大学出版社，2002．
[11]易纲．中国金融改革思考录[M]．北京：商务印书馆，2009．
[12]赵尚梅．利率政策有效性研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001．
[13]韩汉君．经济发展中的利率[M]．上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2004．
[14]赵英军．利率自由化：并非自由的选择[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，1999．
[15]张成思．通货膨胀动态机制与货币政策现实选择[M]．北京：中国人大学出版社，2009．
[16]邵伏军．利率市场化改革中的风险及控制[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2005．
[17]王文平．经济发展中的利率政策[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2005．
[18]郑先炳．利率导论[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，1991．
[19]李社环．利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2001．
[20]中信证券债券销售交易部．危机并未远去——分析师眼中的宏观经济与金融市场波动[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2010．
[21]刘迎秋，韩强，郭宏宇，吕凤勇．利率、债务率汇率与经济增长[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社，2010．
[22]谢平．反思中国模式[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2011．
[23]谢平．转型之惑[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2010．
[24]林毅夫．经济发展与转型：思潮、战略与自生能力[M]．北京：北京大学出版社，2008．
[25]刘煜辉．金融突围[M]．太原：山西人民出版社，2009．
[26]中国人民银行营业管理部课题组．利率规则在中国货币政策调控中的应用研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2010．
[27]童适平．日本金融监管的演化[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1998.
[28]胡维熊．利率理论与政策[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2001．
[29]刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001．
[30]胡海鸥，贾德奎．“利率走廊”调控的理论与实践[M]．上海：上海人民出版社，2006．
[31]施兵超．利率理论与利率政策[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2003．
[32]人民出版社编．中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要[M]．北京：人民出版社，2010．
[33]《朱镕基讲话实录》编辑组．朱镕基讲话实录[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
[34]中国银行业协会，普华永道．中国银行家调查报告[R]．北京：中国出版社，2011．
[35]西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心．中国家庭金融调查报告
[R]．2012．
[36]王健，王茹．以国际视野治理热钱与通胀的棘轮效应[J]．福建论坛（人文社会科学版），2008（9）．
[37]陈之荣．金融危机下的人民币外升内贬及负利率问题研究——兼论内外均衡的宏观调控政策[J]．金融经济（学术版），2009(3)．
[38]张合金，杨充，范旭东．中国存款负利率的经济影响及对策研究[J]．河北经贸大学学报，2005(4)．
[39]李若愚．中国低利率状况亟需改变[J]．发展研究，2011(9)．
[40]王国松．中国的利率管制和利率市场化[J]．经济研究，2001(6)．
[41]黄海洲，侯振海．美国增长新范式：负利率、高通胀、低增长[J]．国际经济评论，2008(5-6)．
[42]孙立坚，林木彬．从零利率政策到负利率结果[J]．国际金融研究，2003(9)．
[43]黄金老．实行贷款限额控制的必然性及其优化措施[J]．金融发展评论，2010(1)．
[44]黄金老．提高利率是一种柔性的市场化调控手段[J]．金融研究，2004(10)．
[45]宋国青．低利率引发高房价[J]．英才，2010(3)．
[46]谢平．经济制度转轨时期中的个人储蓄行为[J]．经济与社会体制比较，1997(1)．
[47]曹新，杜相乾．转变发展方式扩大消费需求[J]．求知，2010(12)．
[48]巴曙松，王月香．利率市场化提高了银行业的集中度——基于美、日等国的国际比较与借鉴[J]．观察家，2012(4)．
[49]江春，刘春华．中国利率市场化的新制度金融学探讨[J]．财经理论与实践，2003(24)．
[50]江春，王鸾凤．发展中国家金融发展的制度分析[J]．财经科学，2009(4)．
[51]尹继志．从美日经验分析利率市场化对金融运行的影响[J]．亚太经济，2011(3)．
[52]闫素仙．论日本的利率市场化及其对中国的启示[J]．管理世界，2009(3)．
[53]胡新智，袁江．渐进式改革：中国利率市场化的理性选择[J]．国际经济评论，2011(6)．
[54]盛朝晖．从国际经验看利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响[J]．金融理论与实践，2010(7)．
[55]诸建芳．十年转型：步入内生增长新时代[A]．谢平．转型之惑：中国金融四十人论坛总论房价走势与经济风险[C]．北京：中国经济出版社，2010．
[56]李锦．银行家们正在进入高风险期——三十五评发展实体经济[N]．中国企业报，2012.2.28(06)．
[57]张茉楠．全球低利率挑战才刚开始[N]．上海金融报，2010.10.12(A02)．
[58]张军．中国会告别低利率时代吗？[N]．上海证券报，2007.8.24(C08)．
[59]邱登科．中国式通货膨胀根源在低利率政策[N]．民营经济报，2007.9.11(A06)．
[60]秦伟．金融失衡的两端：IMF警报：低利率正令全球信贷周期异化[N]．21世纪经济报道，2011.9.26(009)．
[61]易宪容，袁秀明．持续低利率政策对中国经济成长的负效应[N]．中国经济时报，2007.1.29(5)．
[62]周小川．关于推进利率市场化改革的若干思考[N]．金融时报，2011.1.5(001)．
[63]张佳玮．温州民间信贷规模约为11亿元[N]．温州日报，2011.7.22(006)．
[64]Allan H. Meltzer. Origins of the Great Inflation. Review, Federal Reserve Bankof St. Louis,2005(Mar).
[65]Bernanke Ben. The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit.Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond,2005.
[66]Blanchard Olivier J.. Debt, Deficits, Finite Horizons. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1985(93).
[67]Blanchard Olivier J., Francesco Giavazzi, Filipa Sa. International Investors, theU.S. Current Account, and the Dollar. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2005(1).
[68]Broda Christian, David E. Weinstein. Globalization and the Gains from Variety.Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006(121).
[69]Caballero Ricardo J., Arvind Krishnamurthy. Bubbles and Capital FlowVolatility: Causes and Risk Management. Journal of Monetary Economics,2006(53).
[70]Caballero Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi, Mohamad L. Hammour. SpeculativeGrowth: Hints from the U.S. Economy. American Economic Review,2006(96).
[71]Caballero Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. AnEquilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates. National Bureauof Economic Research Working Paper,2006(11996).
[72]Cooper Richard N. Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View. Institutefor International Economic Policy Brief,2005(05-3).
[73]Despres Emile, Charles Kindleberger, Walter Salant. The Dollar and WorldLiquidity: A Minority View. The Economist,1966(5).
[74]Dooley Michael, Peter Garber. Is It1958or1968? Three Notes on the Longevityof the Revived Bretton Woods System. In G-7Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of ChicagoPress (2007).
[75]Dooley Michael P., David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber. An Essay on theRevived Bretton Woods System. National Bureau of Economic Research WorkingPaper,2003(9971).
[76]Engel Charles, John H. Rogers. The U.S. Current Account Deficit and theExpected Share of World Output. Journal of Monetary Economics,2006(53).
[77]Feenstra Robert C. New Product Varieties and the Measurement of InternationalPrices. American Economic Review,1994(84).
[78]Fischer Stanley. The Asian Crisis: A View from the IMF. Address at theMidwinter Conference of the Bankers’ Association for Foreign Trade, Washington,DC,2007.
[79]Gourinchas Pierre-Olivier, Hélène Rey. From World Banker to World VentureCapitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege.” In G-7CurrentAccount Imbalance: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago:University of Chicago Press (2007).
[80]International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, Washington DC (2005).
[81]Kindleberger Charles. Balance of Payments Deficits and the InternationalMarket for Liquidity. Essays in International Finance. Princeton, NJ: InternationalFinance Section, Princeton University (1965).
[82]Kouri Pentti. Balance of Payment and the Foreign Exchange Market: A DynamicPartial Equilibrium Model. In Economic Interdependence and Flexible ExchangeRates, ed. Jagdeep Bhandari and Bluford Putnam. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press(1982).
[83]Kraay Aart, Jaume Ventura. The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and theU.S. Current Account. In G-7Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability andAdjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (2007).
[84]Lane Philip R., Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. A Global Perspective on ExternalPositions, In G-7Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed.Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (2007).
[85]Mendoza Enrique G., Vincenzo Quadrini, José Víctor Ríos Rull. FinancialIntegration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances (2007).
[86]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. The Six Major Puzzles in InternationalMacroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause? In NBER Macroeconomics Annual2000, ed. B. S. Bernanke and K. Rogoff. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (2001).
[87]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. The Unsustainable US Current AccountPosition Revealed. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,2004(10869).
[88]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth S. Rogoff. Global Current Account Imbalances andExchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2005(1).
[89]Ricaro J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Rierre-Olivier Gourinchas. AnEquilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates. AmericanEconomic Review,2008(98).
[90]Weil Philippe. Overlapping Families of Infinitely-Lived Agents. Journal ofPublic Economics,1989(38).
[91]Tarhan Feyzioglu, Nathaniel Porter, Elod Takats. Interest Rate Liberalization inChina. IMF Working Paper,2009(171).
[92]Woodford Michael. Public Debt as Private Liquidity. American EconomicReview,1990(80).
②同上，第412页．
①吴晓灵．对负利率的理解及对策[A]．谢平．价格的逻辑[C]．北京：中国经济出版社，2011，第315-319页．
①费雪.利息理论[M]．上海：上海人民出版社，1959，第42页．
②亚当斯密.国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1972年，第327页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第379页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第401页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第404页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第569页．
①马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第405页．
②马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第934页．
③马克思．资本论（第三卷）[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975，第929页．
④胡锦涛．高举中国特色理论伟大旗帜为夺取全面建设小康社会新胜利而奋斗——在中国共产党第十七次全国代表大会上的讲话[M]．北京：人民出版社，2007，第38-39页．
①张茉楠．全球低利率挑战才刚开始[N]．上海金融报，2010年10月12日第A02版．
①刘迎秋，韩强，郭宏宇，吕凤勇．利率、债务率汇率与经济增长[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社，2010，第53页．
①邓小平：《邓小平文选》第三卷，《企业改革和金融改革》，人民出版社。
②见2009年4月13日人民日报：《中国银行业交出亮丽答卷》。
①董皓．全唐书第05部，卷四百六十五．上海：上海古籍出版社，2007．
①见2011年11月24日，工业和信息化部运行监测协调局与中国社会科学院工业经济研究所共同发布的《2011年中国工业经济运行秋季报告》．
①巴曙松，王月香．利率市场化提高了银行业的集中度——基于美、日等国的国际比较与借鉴[J]．观察家，2012(4)，第22页．
①人民出版社编．中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
①李若愚．中国低利率状况亟需改变[J]．发展研究，2011年第9期第60页．
②唐旭．金融理论前沿课题（第二辑）[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2003．
①刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001，第234页．
②2000年，时任中国人民银行行长的戴相龙在记者招待会上宣布：“中国将用三年时间完成利率开放的整体计划。”此后因种种原因，此次利率市场化改革没能如期推进。
①刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001，第239页．
①韩汉君．经济发展中的利率[M]．上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2004，第289页．
[1]马克思．资本论[M]．北京：人民出版社，1975．
[2]斯密．国民财富的性质和原因的研究[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1972．
[3]凯恩斯．就业、利息和货币通论（重译本）[M]．北京：商务印书馆，1999．
[4]格利，肖．金融理论中的货币[M]．上海：三联书店，1988．
[5]麦金农．经济发展中的货币与资本[M]．上海：三联书店，1988．
[6]瓦什．货币理论与政策[M]．北京：中国人民大学出版社，2001．
[7]霍默，西勒．利率史（第四版）[M]．北京：中信出版社，2010．
[8]夏斌，陈道富．中国金融战略[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
[9]宋芳秀．中国转型经济中的资金配置机制和利率市场化研究[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2007．
[10]刘义圣．中国利率市场化改革论纲[M]．北京：北京大学出版社，2002．
[11]易纲．中国金融改革思考录[M]．北京：商务印书馆，2009．
[12]赵尚梅．利率政策有效性研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001．
[13]韩汉君．经济发展中的利率[M]．上海：上海社会科学院出版社，2004．
[14]赵英军．利率自由化：并非自由的选择[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，1999．
[15]张成思．通货膨胀动态机制与货币政策现实选择[M]．北京：中国人大学出版社，2009．
[16]邵伏军．利率市场化改革中的风险及控制[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2005．
[17]王文平．经济发展中的利率政策[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2005．
[18]郑先炳．利率导论[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，1991．
[19]李社环．利率自由化——理论、实践与绩效[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2001．
[20]中信证券债券销售交易部．危机并未远去——分析师眼中的宏观经济与金融市场波动[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2010．
[21]刘迎秋，韩强，郭宏宇，吕凤勇．利率、债务率汇率与经济增长[M]．北京：中国社会科学出版社，2010．
[22]谢平．反思中国模式[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2011．
[23]谢平．转型之惑[M]．北京：中国经济出版社，2010．
[24]林毅夫．经济发展与转型：思潮、战略与自生能力[M]．北京：北京大学出版社，2008．
[25]刘煜辉．金融突围[M]．太原：山西人民出版社，2009．
[26]中国人民银行营业管理部课题组．利率规则在中国货币政策调控中的应用研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2010．
[27]童适平．日本金融监管的演化[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，1998.
[28]胡维熊．利率理论与政策[M]．上海：上海财经大学出版社，2001．
[29]刘利．利率市场化问题研究[M]．北京：经济科学出版社，2001．
[30]胡海鸥，贾德奎．“利率走廊”调控的理论与实践[M]．上海：上海人民出版社，2006．
[31]施兵超．利率理论与利率政策[M]．北京：中国金融出版社，2003．
[32]人民出版社编．中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划纲要[M]．北京：人民出版社，2010．
[33]《朱镕基讲话实录》编辑组．朱镕基讲话实录[M]．北京：人民出版社，2011．
[34]中国银行业协会，普华永道．中国银行家调查报告[R]．北京：中国出版社，2011．
[35]西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心．中国家庭金融调查报告
[R]．2012．
[36]王健，王茹．以国际视野治理热钱与通胀的棘轮效应[J]．福建论坛（人文社会科学版），2008（9）．
[37]陈之荣．金融危机下的人民币外升内贬及负利率问题研究——兼论内外均衡的宏观调控政策[J]．金融经济（学术版），2009(3)．
[38]张合金，杨充，范旭东．中国存款负利率的经济影响及对策研究[J]．河北经贸大学学报，2005(4)．
[39]李若愚．中国低利率状况亟需改变[J]．发展研究，2011(9)．
[40]王国松．中国的利率管制和利率市场化[J]．经济研究，2001(6)．
[41]黄海洲，侯振海．美国增长新范式：负利率、高通胀、低增长[J]．国际经济评论，2008(5-6)．
[42]孙立坚，林木彬．从零利率政策到负利率结果[J]．国际金融研究，2003(9)．
[43]黄金老．实行贷款限额控制的必然性及其优化措施[J]．金融发展评论，2010(1)．
[44]黄金老．提高利率是一种柔性的市场化调控手段[J]．金融研究，2004(10)．
[45]宋国青．低利率引发高房价[J]．英才，2010(3)．
[46]谢平．经济制度转轨时期中的个人储蓄行为[J]．经济与社会体制比较，1997(1)．
[47]曹新，杜相乾．转变发展方式扩大消费需求[J]．求知，2010(12)．
[48]巴曙松，王月香．利率市场化提高了银行业的集中度——基于美、日等国的国际比较与借鉴[J]．观察家，2012(4)．
[49]江春，刘春华．中国利率市场化的新制度金融学探讨[J]．财经理论与实践，2003(24)．
[50]江春，王鸾凤．发展中国家金融发展的制度分析[J]．财经科学，2009(4)．
[51]尹继志．从美日经验分析利率市场化对金融运行的影响[J]．亚太经济，2011(3)．
[52]闫素仙．论日本的利率市场化及其对中国的启示[J]．管理世界，2009(3)．
[53]胡新智，袁江．渐进式改革：中国利率市场化的理性选择[J]．国际经济评论，2011(6)．
[54]盛朝晖．从国际经验看利率市场化对我国金融运行的影响[J]．金融理论与实践，2010(7)．
[55]诸建芳．十年转型：步入内生增长新时代[A]．谢平．转型之惑：中国金融四十人论坛总论房价走势与经济风险[C]．北京：中国经济出版社，2010．
[56]李锦．银行家们正在进入高风险期——三十五评发展实体经济[N]．中国企业报，2012.2.28(06)．
[57]张茉楠．全球低利率挑战才刚开始[N]．上海金融报，2010.10.12(A02)．
[58]张军．中国会告别低利率时代吗？[N]．上海证券报，2007.8.24(C08)．
[59]邱登科．中国式通货膨胀根源在低利率政策[N]．民营经济报，2007.9.11(A06)．
[60]秦伟．金融失衡的两端：IMF警报：低利率正令全球信贷周期异化[N]．21世纪经济报道，2011.9.26(009)．
[61]易宪容，袁秀明．持续低利率政策对中国经济成长的负效应[N]．中国经济时报，2007.1.29(5)．
[62]周小川．关于推进利率市场化改革的若干思考[N]．金融时报，2011.1.5(001)．
[63]张佳玮．温州民间信贷规模约为11亿元[N]．温州日报，2011.7.22(006)．
[64]Allan H. Meltzer. Origins of the Great Inflation. Review, Federal Reserve Bankof St. Louis,2005(Mar).
[65]Bernanke Ben. The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit.Sandridge Lecture, Virginia Association of Economics, Richmond,2005.
[66]Blanchard Olivier J.. Debt, Deficits, Finite Horizons. Journal of PoliticalEconomy,1985(93).
[67]Blanchard Olivier J., Francesco Giavazzi, Filipa Sa. International Investors, theU.S. Current Account, and the Dollar. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2005(1).
[68]Broda Christian, David E. Weinstein. Globalization and the Gains from Variety.Quarterly Journal of Economics,2006(121).
[69]Caballero Ricardo J., Arvind Krishnamurthy. Bubbles and Capital FlowVolatility: Causes and Risk Management. Journal of Monetary Economics,2006(53).
[70]Caballero Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi, Mohamad L. Hammour. SpeculativeGrowth: Hints from the U.S. Economy. American Economic Review,2006(96).
[71]Caballero Ricardo J., Emmanuel Farhi, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas. AnEquilibrium Model of ‘Global Imbalances’ and Low Interest Rates. National Bureauof Economic Research Working Paper,2006(11996).
[72]Cooper Richard N. Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View. Institutefor International Economic Policy Brief,2005(05-3).
[73]Despres Emile, Charles Kindleberger, Walter Salant. The Dollar and WorldLiquidity: A Minority View. The Economist,1966(5).
[74]Dooley Michael, Peter Garber. Is It1958or1968? Three Notes on the Longevityof the Revived Bretton Woods System. In G-7Current Account Imbalances:Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of ChicagoPress (2007).
[75]Dooley Michael P., David Folkerts-Landau, Peter Garber. An Essay on theRevived Bretton Woods System. National Bureau of Economic Research WorkingPaper,2003(9971).
[76]Engel Charles, John H. Rogers. The U.S. Current Account Deficit and theExpected Share of World Output. Journal of Monetary Economics,2006(53).
[77]Feenstra Robert C. New Product Varieties and the Measurement of InternationalPrices. American Economic Review,1994(84).
[78]Fischer Stanley. The Asian Crisis: A View from the IMF. Address at theMidwinter Conference of the Bankers’ Association for Foreign Trade, Washington,DC,2007.
[79]Gourinchas Pierre-Olivier, Hélène Rey. From World Banker to World VentureCapitalist: US External Adjustment and the Exorbitant Privilege.” In G-7CurrentAccount Imbalance: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago:University of Chicago Press (2007).
[80]International Monetary Fund. World Economic Outlook, Washington DC (2005).
[81]Kindleberger Charles. Balance of Payments Deficits and the InternationalMarket for Liquidity. Essays in International Finance. Princeton, NJ: InternationalFinance Section, Princeton University (1965).
[82]Kouri Pentti. Balance of Payment and the Foreign Exchange Market: A DynamicPartial Equilibrium Model. In Economic Interdependence and Flexible ExchangeRates, ed. Jagdeep Bhandari and Bluford Putnam. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press(1982).
[83]Kraay Aart, Jaume Ventura. The Dot-Com Bubble, the Bush Deficits, and theU.S. Current Account. In G-7Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability andAdjustment, ed. Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (2007).
[84]Lane Philip R., Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti. A Global Perspective on ExternalPositions, In G-7Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, ed.Richard Clarida. Chicago: University of Chicago Press (2007).
[85]Mendoza Enrique G., Vincenzo Quadrini, José Víctor Ríos Rull. FinancialIntegration, Financial Deepness and Global Imbalances (2007).
[86]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. The Six Major Puzzles in InternationalMacroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause? In NBER Macroeconomics Annual2000, ed. B. S. Bernanke and K. Rogoff. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press (2001).
[87]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth Rogoff. The Unsustainable US Current AccountPosition Revealed. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper,2004(10869).
[88]Obstfeld Maurice, Kenneth S. Rogoff. Global Current Account Imbalances andExchange Rate Adjustments. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,2005(1).
[89]Ricaro J. Caballero, Emmanuel Farhi, Rierre-Olivier Gourinchas. AnEquilibrium Model of “Global Imbalances” and Low Interest Rates. AmericanEconomic Review,2008(98).
[90]Weil Philippe. Overlapping Families of Infinitely-Lived Agents. Journal ofPublic Economics,1989(38).
[91]Tarhan Feyzioglu, Nathaniel Porter, Elod Takats. Interest Rate Liberalization inChina. IMF Working Paper,2009(171).
[92]Woodford Michael. Public Debt as Private Liquidity. American EconomicReview,1990(80).