银行未来发展模式的研究
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摘要
本篇论文以《银行未来发展模式的研究》为题,旨在研究银行并购浪潮下未来银行的发展模式。
贯穿本文的思路是从银行并购浪潮这一客观现实入手,认为“并购”行为是导致对“银行未来发展模式”进行讨论的直接原因。而由于并购类型的不同(银行横向并购与银行混业并购),也就形成了不同的银行发展模式。本文在对银行未来发展的“三个重要模式”——全能银行模式、银行保险模式、专业银行模式进行逐一分析后,对发展中国家所面临的机遇与挑战及应对措施提出了自己的看法与建议。因此本文主要分三部分对以上内容进行阐述。
首先,论文针对银行并购的现象进行分析,认为:并购是讨论未来银行发展模式的直接原因,没有并购的发生,也就谈不上银行未来的发展模式问题。可以说并购是“因”,而银行的未来发展模式则是“果”。因此,文章在此部分中,从银行并购的概念、类型及并购的动机理论入手,在做出一一解释及说明后得出结论:导致并购的动机主要可以归纳为两种,即价值最大化动机与非价值最大化动机;对产生该两种动机的理论解释主要有规模经济论、市场占有论、风险分散理论、市场份额理论以及范围经济论等。
其次,针对未来银行的发展模式进行了具体讨论与阐述,此部分也是本篇论文的核心及创新体现之处。论文主要围绕所提出的银行未来发展的“三个重要模式”展开,首先对传统意义上较为常见的全能银行模式与银行保险模式进行了分析与介绍,包括其概念、分类、产生与发展及组织形式等。在对全能银行的阐述中,着重对金融控股型与内部综合经营型全能银行的概念及优劣势作了详细分析,并在此基础上创新性的提出——分离专注型全能银行的概念,一种将以上二者的优势相结合,借鉴金融控股型全能银行组织结构“分离”特点而带来的“内部防火墙”优势,同时保持内部综合经营型全能银行业务经营“专注”特点而使得资源专业化及信息共享,避免信息不对称所可能带来的损失。文章对“分离专注型全能银行”的特点进行了较为详细的说明。
但在对于“业务经营专注”的分析上,文章鉴于对目前所发生的大型全能银行(集团)出售其保险业务的案例,通过分析认为,普遍意义上三业混营的“全能银行”(商业银行+投资银行+保险公司)将由于规模控制、合规、风险等多方面的考虑最终向至多两个领域的混业经营方向发展,即成为两业混营的结构——商业银行+投资银行(银行证券)。文章最后认为:分离专注型(银行证券)全能银行可能将成为未来全能银行的发展模式。
This thesis aims to study the expected banking models for the future further to the wave of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) in the banking industry. Firstly, this thesis provides an overview of bank M&A, and concludes that bank M&A is the basic as well as the direct reason of the probably appearance of future banking models. Therefore, we start by defining the concept of bank M&A;presenting the types of bank M&A, especially the horizontal and mixed M&A;analyzing the reasons as well as the current status of bank M&A. Analysis shows that: the theory of economy of scale, the theory of economy of scope, the theory of risk diversification, the market power theory and so on are the main theories explaining the wave of M&A in the banking industry.Secondly, in the main part also the innovative part of this thesis, we analyze the expected banking models for the future. We think that three models will predominate in the future. What we have called the "Three Important Models": Universal Banking Model, Bancassurance Model and Specialized Banking Model, hi this part, we start by making a comparative study of the two important well known models: Universal Banking Model and Bancassurance Model. While analyzing the Universal Banking Model, we mainly present the characteristics, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the two typical universal banking models, which are Financial Holding Company Model (the American Model) and Mixed Holding Company Model (the German Model). We found that the "divisional" structure and the existence of "firewall", which prevents financial holding company from financial risk propagation, are the fundamental advantages of the American Model, while the "focus" on separated business units and the share of information, which prevents the mixed holding company from asymmetric information, are the fundamental advantages of the German model. By combining the advantages of these two models, we have proposed a new universal banking model for the future: the Divisional-Focus Model. In addition to this, we have also presented the characteristics of this new model.Actually, universal banks are common known as banks which provide the full range of financial services (commercial bank service + investment bank service + insurance company service). But by analyzing the recent events in the banking industry, we
found that more and more big banks or financial holding corporation are selling their subsidiary insurance company. Guided by these findings, we have achieved the following conclusion: the universal banks which provide mainly two majors services (commercial bank service + investment bank service) with the characteristic of divisional-focus model described above will be probably the model of universal banks in the future instead of those which provide the full range of financial services (commercial bank service + investment bank service + insurance company service). After having presented the two important models mentioned above, we analyze the third important model: Specialized Banking Model. We found that banks which provide specific service in specific financial area, such as credit card, consumer lending specialization bank etc will coexist with Universal Banking Model and Bancassurance Model. Besides analyzing the fundamental theory and the economic factors supporting this assertion, we have also presented the current status of this type of specialized banks. At the end of this section, we provide a flowchart to present the future "Three Important Models".Finally, due to the financial globalization and financial integration, we think that developing countries will face many opportunities and challenges. We have summarized these opportunities and challenges, which includes the following three aspects. The first one is the trend of global financial mixed operation. The second one is the great desire of big banks to grow bigger and bigger. This trend is accelerated all the time. The third one is continuing financial innovation in the banking industry, including the widely application of networking technology. Facing these opportunities and challenges, we think that developing countries should take the following four relevant measures. The first one is to encourage domestic banks to make strategic alliances and cooperation with foreign banks. The second one is to encourage small and medium banks to move forward specialization. The third one is to get a clear understanding of self advantages, develop core business while outsourcing non-core business. And finally the four one is to extend activities strategically in some least developing regions.
贯穿本文的思路是从银行并购浪潮这一客观现实入手,认为“并购”行为是导致对“银行未来发展模式”进行讨论的直接原因。而由于并购类型的不同(银行横向并购与银行混业并购),也就形成了不同的银行发展模式。本文在对银行未来发展的“三个重要模式”——全能银行模式、银行保险模式、专业银行模式进行逐一分析后,对发展中国家所面临的机遇与挑战及应对措施提出了自己的看法与建议。因此本文主要分三部分对以上内容进行阐述。
首先,论文针对银行并购的现象进行分析,认为:并购是讨论未来银行发展模式的直接原因,没有并购的发生,也就谈不上银行未来的发展模式问题。可以说并购是“因”,而银行的未来发展模式则是“果”。因此,文章在此部分中,从银行并购的概念、类型及并购的动机理论入手,在做出一一解释及说明后得出结论:导致并购的动机主要可以归纳为两种,即价值最大化动机与非价值最大化动机;对产生该两种动机的理论解释主要有规模经济论、市场占有论、风险分散理论、市场份额理论以及范围经济论等。
其次,针对未来银行的发展模式进行了具体讨论与阐述,此部分也是本篇论文的核心及创新体现之处。论文主要围绕所提出的银行未来发展的“三个重要模式”展开,首先对传统意义上较为常见的全能银行模式与银行保险模式进行了分析与介绍,包括其概念、分类、产生与发展及组织形式等。在对全能银行的阐述中,着重对金融控股型与内部综合经营型全能银行的概念及优劣势作了详细分析,并在此基础上创新性的提出——分离专注型全能银行的概念,一种将以上二者的优势相结合,借鉴金融控股型全能银行组织结构“分离”特点而带来的“内部防火墙”优势,同时保持内部综合经营型全能银行业务经营“专注”特点而使得资源专业化及信息共享,避免信息不对称所可能带来的损失。文章对“分离专注型全能银行”的特点进行了较为详细的说明。
但在对于“业务经营专注”的分析上,文章鉴于对目前所发生的大型全能银行(集团)出售其保险业务的案例,通过分析认为,普遍意义上三业混营的“全能银行”(商业银行+投资银行+保险公司)将由于规模控制、合规、风险等多方面的考虑最终向至多两个领域的混业经营方向发展,即成为两业混营的结构——商业银行+投资银行(银行证券)。文章最后认为:分离专注型(银行证券)全能银行可能将成为未来全能银行的发展模式。
This thesis aims to study the expected banking models for the future further to the wave of Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) in the banking industry. Firstly, this thesis provides an overview of bank M&A, and concludes that bank M&A is the basic as well as the direct reason of the probably appearance of future banking models. Therefore, we start by defining the concept of bank M&A;presenting the types of bank M&A, especially the horizontal and mixed M&A;analyzing the reasons as well as the current status of bank M&A. Analysis shows that: the theory of economy of scale, the theory of economy of scope, the theory of risk diversification, the market power theory and so on are the main theories explaining the wave of M&A in the banking industry.Secondly, in the main part also the innovative part of this thesis, we analyze the expected banking models for the future. We think that three models will predominate in the future. What we have called the "Three Important Models": Universal Banking Model, Bancassurance Model and Specialized Banking Model, hi this part, we start by making a comparative study of the two important well known models: Universal Banking Model and Bancassurance Model. While analyzing the Universal Banking Model, we mainly present the characteristics, as well as the advantages and disadvantages of the two typical universal banking models, which are Financial Holding Company Model (the American Model) and Mixed Holding Company Model (the German Model). We found that the "divisional" structure and the existence of "firewall", which prevents financial holding company from financial risk propagation, are the fundamental advantages of the American Model, while the "focus" on separated business units and the share of information, which prevents the mixed holding company from asymmetric information, are the fundamental advantages of the German model. By combining the advantages of these two models, we have proposed a new universal banking model for the future: the Divisional-Focus Model. In addition to this, we have also presented the characteristics of this new model.Actually, universal banks are common known as banks which provide the full range of financial services (commercial bank service + investment bank service + insurance company service). But by analyzing the recent events in the banking industry, we
found that more and more big banks or financial holding corporation are selling their subsidiary insurance company. Guided by these findings, we have achieved the following conclusion: the universal banks which provide mainly two majors services (commercial bank service + investment bank service) with the characteristic of divisional-focus model described above will be probably the model of universal banks in the future instead of those which provide the full range of financial services (commercial bank service + investment bank service + insurance company service). After having presented the two important models mentioned above, we analyze the third important model: Specialized Banking Model. We found that banks which provide specific service in specific financial area, such as credit card, consumer lending specialization bank etc will coexist with Universal Banking Model and Bancassurance Model. Besides analyzing the fundamental theory and the economic factors supporting this assertion, we have also presented the current status of this type of specialized banks. At the end of this section, we provide a flowchart to present the future "Three Important Models".Finally, due to the financial globalization and financial integration, we think that developing countries will face many opportunities and challenges. We have summarized these opportunities and challenges, which includes the following three aspects. The first one is the trend of global financial mixed operation. The second one is the great desire of big banks to grow bigger and bigger. This trend is accelerated all the time. The third one is continuing financial innovation in the banking industry, including the widely application of networking technology. Facing these opportunities and challenges, we think that developing countries should take the following four relevant measures. The first one is to encourage domestic banks to make strategic alliances and cooperation with foreign banks. The second one is to encourage small and medium banks to move forward specialization. The third one is to get a clear understanding of self advantages, develop core business while outsourcing non-core business. And finally the four one is to extend activities strategically in some least developing regions.
引文
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[2] McKinnon R I. Money and Capital in Economic Development. Economics Letters. Vol 47, 1973. 111～116
[3] The New Encyclopedia Britannica. 15th ed. Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc., vol 8, 1993. 34～35
[4] Coutinet N, Sagot-Duvauroux D. Economic des fusions et acquisitions. Paris: La Decouverte, 2003, 6～7
[5] 郑鸣,投资银行并购论.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2005,22～24
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[9] 鲍尔斯.亚洲银行新未来:树立利润观念.原书第二版.刘小丽等译.北京:机械工业出版社,2005.114～116
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[22] 叶辅靖.全能银行比较研究:兼论混业与分业经营.北京:中国金融出版社,2001.89～92
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[2] McKinnon R I. Money and Capital in Economic Development. Economics Letters. Vol 47, 1973. 111～116
[3] The New Encyclopedia Britannica. 15th ed. Encyclopedia Britannica, Inc., vol 8, 1993. 34～35
[4] Coutinet N, Sagot-Duvauroux D. Economic des fusions et acquisitions. Paris: La Decouverte, 2003, 6～7
[5] 郑鸣,投资银行并购论.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2005,22～24
[6] 曹军.银行并购问题研究.北京:中国金融出版社,2005.
[7] 斯蒂芬.I.戴维斯.银行并购:经验与教训.郑先炳,李晓欣译.北京:中国金融出版社,2003.144～150
[8] 吴桦.银行并购与中国银行业发展.北京:中国财政经济出版社,2003.126～129,138～140
[9] 鲍尔斯.亚洲银行新未来:树立利润观念.原书第二版.刘小丽等译.北京:机械工业出版社,2005.114～116
[10] Pastre O, Blommestein H, Jeffers E. La Nouvelle Economie Bancaire. Paris: Economica, 2005, 79～85, 129～138, 160～166
[11] Pastre O, Jeffers E. La TGBE: La Tres Grande Bagarre bancaire Europeenne. Paris: Economica, 2005, 37～38
[12] Ross S A, Westerfield R W, Jaffe J F. Corporate Finance. 6th ed. Pekin: McGraw-Hill Education (Asia) Co. and China Machine Press. 2002. 823～826
[13] Brealey R A, Myers S C. Principles of Corporate Finance. 6th ed. Pekin: McGraw-Hill Education (Asia) Co. and China Machine Press. 2002. 941～950
[14] Baker-Self T, Ghavimi B, Dickie M. The top one thousand world banks. The banker. Vol 7, 2005
[15] Pastre O. La Banque. Paris : Les Essentiels Milan, 1997. 48～53
[16] Mishkin F, Bordes C, Hautcoeur P C. Monnaie, banque et marches financiers. 7eme ed. Paris: Pearson Education, 2004. 271～274
[17] 米什金.货币金融学.第四版.李扬等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,1998.222～226
[18] 兹维·博迪,罗伯特·C·莫顿.金融学.伊志宏等译.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2000.428～432
[19] 张洪涛,苗力.银行保险.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2005
[20] 李洁.银行制度创新与全能银行发展.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2003
[21] 杨明生,陈捷.商业银行保险代理业务.北京:中国金融出版社,2002
[22] 叶辅靖.全能银行比较研究:兼论混业与分业经营.北京:中国金融出版社,2001.89～92
[23] 汉斯·乌里希·德瑞克.全能银行:未来的银行类型.北京:中国金融出版社,2002.1～16
[24] 徐为山,杨朝军,汪有涛.全能银行与银行保险:欧洲商业银行集团化的事业模式比较.国际金融研究,2005,2:18～26
[25] 陆晓明.金融现代化法案后的美国银行业混业经营——兼评花旗集团出售“旅行者”.国际金融研究,2005,8:4～9
[26] Biswas R., Lochel H. Recent Trends in U.S. and German Banking: Convergence or Divergence? Download under: http://www.hfb.de/forschung/veroeffen.html.2001
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