黄金金融功能的研究
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摘要
随着人类社会发展和国际货币体系的演化,黄金经历了从商品到货币再到商品(黄金非货币化)的曲折变化,黄金的历史地位和作用也发生了相应改变。在黄金充当货币的年代,黄金一度发挥着价值尺度、交换媒介、支付手段、储备货币、世界货币等全能货币的职能；黄金非货币化后,即1971年尼克松总统宣布关闭黄金窗口后,黄金的货币职能仅剩下储备功能一项。同时,由于黄金价格随行就市,黄金和股票、债券等其他金融资产一样成为市场投资热品。但近两年来,随着美国经济的日渐复苏,黄金的投资功能似乎有所减弱。2013年,国际金价在经历12年连年上涨后,首度大跌29%。加之,黄金储备收益率偏低、持有黄金储备机会成本偏高等问题,又引起各国央行对于黄金储备管理和运用的困惑。持有黄金的意义究竟何在?如何评估黄金的金融功能?如何投资黄金?黄金储备的适度规模多大?这些问题都是近40年来国内外黄金研究的重点,但并未形成共识。
本文综述了与黄金有关的国内外文献,发现与黄金货币职能相关的研究伴随黄金非货币化进程的推进而逐步减少,而黄金金融属性方面的研究却在黄金非货化后成为研究热点。黄金非货币化后,黄金的金融属性主要表现在投资和储备两个方面。
本文梳理了黄金从一般商品到特殊商品的演变历史,分析了黄金在自由兑换、有限兑换和不可兑换条件下金融功能的演变进程。指出黄金非货币化具有一定的必然性,这是黄金货币供给不足与世界经济快速发展之间矛盾运动的结果。同时,黄金非货币化是不充分的,黄金仍在一定程度上保留了储备货币的功能,这一状况反映了美元作为国际货币的内在缺陷和问题。近年来,受美、欧等发达国家量化宽松政策影响,黄金对一国海外资产的投资配置作用不断提升,对新兴市场国家而言,黄金储备功能也有待进一步优化。另外,在商品金融化趋势下,受地缘政治冲突、各类经济金融危机、美元持续贬值等因素的影响,黄金的投资功能也在不断强化。
黄金投资功能主要表现在避险、对冲、保值等方面。黄金特殊的投资功能与金价波动的特殊性密切相关。本文运用GJR_GARCH模型和Markov机制转换模型,分别分析了金价波动的不对称性和长周期性。金价波动的不对称性是指在正负冲击的影响下,金价表现出与证券市场相反的波动性,即当宏观经济环境恶化时,金价更趋向于上涨。这凸显了黄金的避险效应。长周期性是指金价波动一旦形成趋势,将维持较长时间。长周期性的分析指出了购买黄金的最佳时期是在金价开始呈现大幅上涨趋势时。金价波动特征的分析,为深入研究黄金的投资和储备功能奠定了价格基础。在投资功能分析方面,本文对黄金的避险、风险对冲以及金融保值功能进行了检验,认为黄金这三方面的投资效应都是客观存在的。在储备功能方面,本文采用比较分析法,剖析了美、欧、日、英、瑞士等发达国家以及金砖四国等新兴市场国家黄金储备总量的变化特征和影响黄金储备的历史及现实原因,综合分析了各国黄金储备的管理及运用模式,并在此基础上建立了我国黄金储备管理的指标体系,测算了最优黄金储备规模。本文认为,短期我国黄金储备的最优规模为2500吨左右,中长期最优规模在5000吨左右。
最后,从国情来看,我国黄金市场发展起步较晚,还存在诸多不利于发挥黄金投资和储备功能的障碍。基于此,本文分析了我国黄金市场发展中存在的问题,并从优化黄金金融功能的视角,提出建立我国黄金市场做市商制度、完善我国商业银行账户金、优化我国黄金储备的管理和运用等政策建议。
With the evolution of human society and the international monetary system, gold has gone from commodity to commodity currencies and then (non-monetary gold) of twists and turns, historical status and role of gold has also undergone a change accordingly. In the era of gold as money, gold was playing a measure of value, medium of exchange, means of payment functions, reserve currency, world currency and so on; the non-monetary gold, which in1971President Nixon closed the gold window after the announcement, gold functional reserve currency functions, leaving only one. Meanwhile, gold prices reflect market conditions. Like stocks and bonds,gold becomes a hot investment item. But over the past two years, with the growing recovery in the U.S. economy, the investment function of gold appears to have weakened. In2013, the international price of gold rose in successive years experience12years later, for the first time fell by29%. Additionally, the gold reserves of the low yields, high opportunity cost of holding gold reserves and other issues, but also caused the gold reserves of central banks to manage and use the confusion. What exactly is the significance of holding gold? How to assess the financial capabilities of gold? How to invest in gold? How appropriate scale gold reserves? These issues are the focus of the past40years the study abroad gold, but did not reach a consensus.
This paper reviewed gold-related literature. With the advancing process of non-monetary gold, gold-related study was gradually reduced, but research aspects of the financial attributes of gold is increasing after gold has become a hot topic of non-goods. After the non-monetary gold, gold properties mainly in two aspects,such as financial investment and reserve.
This paper reviews the gold from general merchandise to the historical evolution of specific goods, analyzes the evolution of the financial functions in the process of gold convertibility, convertible and non-convertible limited conditions. Pointed out that non-monetary gold with a certain inevitability, which is the result of contradictions between rapid money supply and shortage of gold in the world economy. Meanwhile, non-monetary gold is not sufficient, gold still retains the functional reserve currency to a certain extent, this situation reflects the dollar as the international currency of the inherent flaws and problems. In recent years, by quantifying the United States, Europe and other developed countries, easing the impact of gold on the role of a country's investment allocation foreign assets rising, emerging market countries, the gold reserves of functions to be further optimized. Influence addition, the trend in commodity finance, geopolitical conflicts, various types of economic and financial crisis, the weak dollar and other factors, the investment function of gold has also been strengthened.
Gold investment function mainly is in hedge, safe haven and other aspects. Special features gold investment is closely related to the special nature of price fluctuations. In this paper GJR_GARCH and Markov mechanisms converting models were analyzed gold price volatility asymmetry and long periodicity. Gold price volatility asymmetry refers to the impact of positive and negative shocks, the price of gold and the stock market showed volatility opposite, that is, when the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, gold prices tend to rise. This highlights the effects of gold hedging. Long cyclical price fluctuations once refers to a trend will last longer. Long periodic analysis indicates the best time to buy gold when the price of gold is beginning to show a significant upward trend. Analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuations for in-depth study of investment and reserve functions laid the basis of the price of gold. In the investment function analysis, the paper gold hedging, hedging and financial hedging capabilities were tested, the effect that the investment in these three areas are prime objective existence. In the reserve function, we use comparative analysis, analysis of the variation of the United States, Europe, Japan, Britain, Switzerland and other developed countries and emerging markets such as the BRIC countries of the total gold reserves and the historical and practical reasons affecting gold reserves, comprehensive analysis of the management and use patterns States gold reserves, and the establishment of China's gold reserves management indicator system on this basis, the calculation of the optimal size of gold reserves. This paper argues that the optimal size of the short-term China's gold reserves is about2,500tons, and long-term optimal size at about5,000tons.
Finally, from the national conditions, China's gold market started late, there are many gold investment is not conducive to play and functional reserve obstacles. Based on this, this paper analyzes the development of China's gold market, the problems and optimize the gold from the perspective of financial functions, proposed the establishment of China's gold market maker system, improve our business bank account deposits, China's gold reserves to optimize the management and use, etc. policy recommendations.
本文综述了与黄金有关的国内外文献,发现与黄金货币职能相关的研究伴随黄金非货币化进程的推进而逐步减少,而黄金金融属性方面的研究却在黄金非货化后成为研究热点。黄金非货币化后,黄金的金融属性主要表现在投资和储备两个方面。
本文梳理了黄金从一般商品到特殊商品的演变历史,分析了黄金在自由兑换、有限兑换和不可兑换条件下金融功能的演变进程。指出黄金非货币化具有一定的必然性,这是黄金货币供给不足与世界经济快速发展之间矛盾运动的结果。同时,黄金非货币化是不充分的,黄金仍在一定程度上保留了储备货币的功能,这一状况反映了美元作为国际货币的内在缺陷和问题。近年来,受美、欧等发达国家量化宽松政策影响,黄金对一国海外资产的投资配置作用不断提升,对新兴市场国家而言,黄金储备功能也有待进一步优化。另外,在商品金融化趋势下,受地缘政治冲突、各类经济金融危机、美元持续贬值等因素的影响,黄金的投资功能也在不断强化。
黄金投资功能主要表现在避险、对冲、保值等方面。黄金特殊的投资功能与金价波动的特殊性密切相关。本文运用GJR_GARCH模型和Markov机制转换模型,分别分析了金价波动的不对称性和长周期性。金价波动的不对称性是指在正负冲击的影响下,金价表现出与证券市场相反的波动性,即当宏观经济环境恶化时,金价更趋向于上涨。这凸显了黄金的避险效应。长周期性是指金价波动一旦形成趋势,将维持较长时间。长周期性的分析指出了购买黄金的最佳时期是在金价开始呈现大幅上涨趋势时。金价波动特征的分析,为深入研究黄金的投资和储备功能奠定了价格基础。在投资功能分析方面,本文对黄金的避险、风险对冲以及金融保值功能进行了检验,认为黄金这三方面的投资效应都是客观存在的。在储备功能方面,本文采用比较分析法,剖析了美、欧、日、英、瑞士等发达国家以及金砖四国等新兴市场国家黄金储备总量的变化特征和影响黄金储备的历史及现实原因,综合分析了各国黄金储备的管理及运用模式,并在此基础上建立了我国黄金储备管理的指标体系,测算了最优黄金储备规模。本文认为,短期我国黄金储备的最优规模为2500吨左右,中长期最优规模在5000吨左右。
最后,从国情来看,我国黄金市场发展起步较晚,还存在诸多不利于发挥黄金投资和储备功能的障碍。基于此,本文分析了我国黄金市场发展中存在的问题,并从优化黄金金融功能的视角,提出建立我国黄金市场做市商制度、完善我国商业银行账户金、优化我国黄金储备的管理和运用等政策建议。
With the evolution of human society and the international monetary system, gold has gone from commodity to commodity currencies and then (non-monetary gold) of twists and turns, historical status and role of gold has also undergone a change accordingly. In the era of gold as money, gold was playing a measure of value, medium of exchange, means of payment functions, reserve currency, world currency and so on; the non-monetary gold, which in1971President Nixon closed the gold window after the announcement, gold functional reserve currency functions, leaving only one. Meanwhile, gold prices reflect market conditions. Like stocks and bonds,gold becomes a hot investment item. But over the past two years, with the growing recovery in the U.S. economy, the investment function of gold appears to have weakened. In2013, the international price of gold rose in successive years experience12years later, for the first time fell by29%. Additionally, the gold reserves of the low yields, high opportunity cost of holding gold reserves and other issues, but also caused the gold reserves of central banks to manage and use the confusion. What exactly is the significance of holding gold? How to assess the financial capabilities of gold? How to invest in gold? How appropriate scale gold reserves? These issues are the focus of the past40years the study abroad gold, but did not reach a consensus.
This paper reviewed gold-related literature. With the advancing process of non-monetary gold, gold-related study was gradually reduced, but research aspects of the financial attributes of gold is increasing after gold has become a hot topic of non-goods. After the non-monetary gold, gold properties mainly in two aspects,such as financial investment and reserve.
This paper reviews the gold from general merchandise to the historical evolution of specific goods, analyzes the evolution of the financial functions in the process of gold convertibility, convertible and non-convertible limited conditions. Pointed out that non-monetary gold with a certain inevitability, which is the result of contradictions between rapid money supply and shortage of gold in the world economy. Meanwhile, non-monetary gold is not sufficient, gold still retains the functional reserve currency to a certain extent, this situation reflects the dollar as the international currency of the inherent flaws and problems. In recent years, by quantifying the United States, Europe and other developed countries, easing the impact of gold on the role of a country's investment allocation foreign assets rising, emerging market countries, the gold reserves of functions to be further optimized. Influence addition, the trend in commodity finance, geopolitical conflicts, various types of economic and financial crisis, the weak dollar and other factors, the investment function of gold has also been strengthened.
Gold investment function mainly is in hedge, safe haven and other aspects. Special features gold investment is closely related to the special nature of price fluctuations. In this paper GJR_GARCH and Markov mechanisms converting models were analyzed gold price volatility asymmetry and long periodicity. Gold price volatility asymmetry refers to the impact of positive and negative shocks, the price of gold and the stock market showed volatility opposite, that is, when the deterioration of the macroeconomic environment, gold prices tend to rise. This highlights the effects of gold hedging. Long cyclical price fluctuations once refers to a trend will last longer. Long periodic analysis indicates the best time to buy gold when the price of gold is beginning to show a significant upward trend. Analysis of the characteristics of price fluctuations for in-depth study of investment and reserve functions laid the basis of the price of gold. In the investment function analysis, the paper gold hedging, hedging and financial hedging capabilities were tested, the effect that the investment in these three areas are prime objective existence. In the reserve function, we use comparative analysis, analysis of the variation of the United States, Europe, Japan, Britain, Switzerland and other developed countries and emerging markets such as the BRIC countries of the total gold reserves and the historical and practical reasons affecting gold reserves, comprehensive analysis of the management and use patterns States gold reserves, and the establishment of China's gold reserves management indicator system on this basis, the calculation of the optimal size of gold reserves. This paper argues that the optimal size of the short-term China's gold reserves is about2,500tons, and long-term optimal size at about5,000tons.
Finally, from the national conditions, China's gold market started late, there are many gold investment is not conducive to play and functional reserve obstacles. Based on this, this paper analyzes the development of China's gold market, the problems and optimize the gold from the perspective of financial functions, proposed the establishment of China's gold market maker system, improve our business bank account deposits, China's gold reserves to optimize the management and use, etc. policy recommendations.
引文
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1 Brian M Lucy.London or New York:where and when does the gold price originate?2012,世界黄金协会网站
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1 Phillips, P. C. B. and Yu, J. (2011). Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis. Quantitative Economics,2:455-491.
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5 Natalia Chernyshoff (2005).Stuck on gold:real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard,https://nber.org/papers/w11795
1 Clawar, Harry:"A New Gold War?", www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/clarwar031300.html.
1 Dimitri Speck,秘密黄金政策一为何中央银行要操纵黄金价格?上海财经大学出版社,2011年,75页
2 FOMC19930518meeting.pdf, p.40-41,引自Dimitri Speck《秘密黄金政策-为何中央银行要操纵黄金价格?》,第102页,上海财经大学出版社,2011年
3 Jan Skoyles, Unveiling the gold market's working parts. Gold Bullion, independent comment&analysis.
4 Bud Conrad, Physical Gold vs.Paper Gold:The Ultimate Disconnect
1 Steven W. Sumner, Robert Johnson Luc Soenen(2010).Spillover effects among gold,stocks and bonds,ssrn.com
2 Edel&Brian(2007).An APGARCH investigation of the main influences on the gold priee.http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=792205.
3 Brooks,Robert D.&Faff, Robert W. & Mckenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather,(2000), "An multicountry study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns",Journal of Internantional Money and Finance,Elsevier,Vol.19(3),pages 377-397,June
4 Shaun K. Roache and Marco Rossi(2009).The effect of economic news on commodity prices:Is gold just another commodity?[J]. http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1442242.
1 许贵阳.中国黄金期货市场套期保值功能实证研究[J].黄金.2011年第11期
1 王志军.欧元区金融一体化进程中的金融绩效：基于金融功能观的分析.欧洲研究,2008年第5期
2 Levine,R.1997.FinancialDevelopment and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature 35:688-726
3 Allen,Franklin and Douglas Gale.2001.Comparative Financial Systems:A Survey.http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/-allenf/download/Vita/PublishedPapers.htm.Working Paper
1 孙立坚、李安心、牛晓梦,2003,金融体系的脆弱性不会影响经济增长吗?—来自对中国案例实证分析的答案,厦门：全国金融理论高级研讨会会议论文
2 白钦先.金融结构、金融功能演进与金融发展理论的研究历程[J].经济评论,2005年第3期,P39-45
3 谭加劲,高洁.金融租赁与中小企业融资：基于金融功能理论的探讨[J]南方金融,2007年第4期
1 彼得·L.伯恩斯坦.黄金简史[M].第一章黄金险中求,上海财经大学出版社.2008：4
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第二章,迈达斯的企望和纯粹机缘的产物,上海财经大学出版社.2008：23
3 吕底亚王国是小亚西亚西部的富裕古国
1 [英]弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M],第三章,政府垄断铸币的起源,2007年,27页
1 德国中南部城市,德国历史上最悠久的城市之一,始建于公元前15年罗马帝国时期。
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第七章.巨大的连锁反应.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,116页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第七章.巨大的连锁反应.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,116页
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第八章.分崩离析的时代和君王的赎金.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,133页
3 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第八章.分崩离析的时代和君王的赎金..上海财经大学出版社.2008年,135页
4 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十章.致命的毒药与私人货币.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,167页
1 Boeyer-Xambeu, Marie-Therese, Ghislain Deleplace and Lucien Gillard,1994,P.116. Private Money& Public Currencies:The 16th Century Challenge. Translated by Azizeh Azodi. Armonk, NY:M.E. Sharpe
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十章.致命的毒药与私人货币.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,186页
1 伯恩斯坦《黄金简史》,笔者认为这或许只是一个次要原因。更主要的原因是,中国已于唐朝时期就发明和运用了纸币。中国较西方更早学会了管理和使用纸币。
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008年,14页
1 李嘉图,《李嘉图著作和通信集》第三卷,“关于金价报告写给《晨报》的三封信”,P249
1 《1900年金本位法案》
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008：7
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十四章.新的霸主与可憎的发现.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,258页
1 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,111页
2 Machlup,Fritz,1964, International payments, debts and gold. New York:Charles Scribner's Sons,2943页
3 Bloomfield, Arthur.1959. Money Policy under the international Gold Standard,1880-1914. New York:Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1963. "Short-Term Capital movement under the Pre-1914 Gold Standard." Princeton Studies in International Finance 11. International Finance Section,Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J
4 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,125页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十七章.诺曼征服.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,334页
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,344页
3 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,348页
4 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,351页
5 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
1 谈谭.从货币战到有限合作——1933-1936年美英法三国货币外交[J].世界历史.2009年第6期,27页
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
3 Perter L.Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,352页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十九章.非凡的价值.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,367页
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,58页
1 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第四卷宏观经济学和国际货币史[M].中国金融出版社,2003年,66-67页
1 1965年,美国取消了联储成员银行在联储存款需要25%法定黄金保证的规定,1968年进一步取消了联储美元钞票背后的黄金保证
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
1 Perter L.Bernstein.《黄金简史》第二十章.第八次世界大战与三十盎司黄金.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,389页
2 本部分引自邹琼.黄金和美元的跷跷板?[J].金融博览.2013年第3期,51页
1 价格为伦敦金下午定盘价年度均价,数据来源：KITCO
2 1980年1月21日,黄金触及850美元历史高位
1 以上观点参考Mundell (2000),唐双宁(2009)
1 本杰明·格雷戈姆.储备与稳定[M].P92
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[Ml,中国金融出版社,2003：132页
3 以上观点参考Mundell (2000),唐双宁(2009)
1 2004年9月6日,伦敦金银市场协会2004年会在上海举行,周小川在题为《充分发挥黄金市场的投资管理功能》的讲话中指出“中国黄金市场应实现三个转变”。
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008：10
2 王仲会,《黄金、货币、金融安全——中国黄金体系改革与发展研究》,P71
3 THE LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION的缩写。
1 2013年,中国银行间交易商协会起草制定了《中国场外黄金衍生产品交易基本术语(2013年版),并已经中国人民银行备案通过。
2 《2011年中国黄金市场报告》第五章商业银行黄金业务,23页
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1 Gorton G and Rouwenhorst KG (2006). Facts and fantasies about commodity futures. Working Paper No.10595. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), March.
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1 Martha Starr, Ky Tran. Determinants of the physicaldemand for gold:Evidence from panel data [J].working paper,2007 (9)
2 An introduction to the global gold market.www.goldbarsworldwide.com
3 GFMS, Retail gold investment and private investor stocks-a review,2011.11
1 刘山恩,黄金：规避金融风险的港湾,中国黄金经济,1998年第5期。
1 数据来源：彭博资讯,黄金价格采用美元计价的伦敦黄金现货价格。
2 Gold as a hedge against the us dollar,world gold council, research study No 30
1 Dick Ware,黄金在储备管理中的地位,引自《各国如何管理储备资产》,205页
1 Barry Eichengreen, Donald J. Mathieson,外汇储备的货币构成：回顾与展望,引自《各国如何管理储备资产》,82页
1 宋鸿兵,《货币战争》P237,中信出版社,2007年6月
2 黄金反垄断行动委员会(Gold anti-trust action comitee)主席比尔莫非认为JP摩根、英格兰银行、德意志银行、花旗银行、高盛公司、国际清算银行、美国财政部和美联储构成蓄谋打击黄金价格的特殊利益
1 《货币的祸害》商务印书馆,2007,米尔顿弗里德曼,第四章一个非真实的检验：对1873年后继续复本位制的效应的估算,P88
1 伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA),《伦敦金银市场指南》第45页“专业术语表”,2001
2 Gary O'Callaghan, "the structure and operation of the world gold market", IMF working paper, December 1991
3 中国银行、中国工商银行、中国建设银行、中信银行、招商银行、光大银行
1 中国人民银行上海总部《中国金融市场发展报告》编写组,《中国金融市场发展报告》,中国金融出版社,2007-2011年
2 1盎司=31.1035克
1 马来西亚联昌国际银行http://www.cimbbank.com.my/index.php?ch=cb per st&pg=eb_per_st_inv&ac=12&tpt=cimb bank;科威特金融公司(马来西亚)http://www.kfh.com.my/kfhmb/;马来西亚银行http://www.maybaank2u.com.my/mbb_info/m2u/public/personalDetai104. do?channelId=INV-Investment &cntTypeId=0&cntKey=INV03.02&programId=:IWV03-Gold&chCatId=/mbb/Personal/INV-Investment;大众银行(马来西亚)http://www.pbebank.com/en/en_content/personal/investments/gold.html;大华银行(马来西亚)http://wwwl.uob.com.my/personal/index.html;香港恒生银行ittp://bank.hangseng.com/1/2/chi/hom;永亨银行(香港)www.whbhk.com;台湾银行www.bot.com.tw;台湾合作金库银行www.tcb-bank.com.tw/Pages/index.aspx;大华银行(新加坡)www.uobgroup.com;
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3 1976年1月,国际货币基金组织的牙买加会议对黄金问题作出六项规定：取消基金协定中提及黄金的一切条款；废止黄金官价；删除黄金是各货币汇价法定尺度的规定；把基金组织的部分存金退给各成员国并拍卖部分黄金；各国中央银行可无拘束地在市场上参与黄金交易；基金组织不干预金价。牙买加协议还确定以逐日定值的特别提款权作为国际货币新的价值单位,以特别提款权作为今后主要的国际储备资产和国际货币的改革方向,最终取代黄金和储备货币的地位。
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1 陈伟恕.《黄金非货币化是历史的必然》[J],1982,
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1 如阿兰M.泰勒(2011),C. Edoardo(2010),等等
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3 1944年,在布雷顿森林举行的联合国货币金融会议上,凯恩斯提出了“国际清算同盟计划”,同盟帐户的记账单位为“班科”,以黄金计值。会员国可用黄金换取班科,但不能用班科换取黄金。
4 周洁卿,《论黄金非货币化和黄金的货币地位》,《上海金融》,2009年第1期,P65-68
1 刘德芳、张斌,《黄金在国际货币制度中的作用》[J],国际金融研究,1986年第6期,57页
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4 周洁卿,《浅析黄金在非货币环境下的货币地位-从美国金融风暴看增持黄金的重要性》[J],《世界经济研究》,2009年第11期
5 石清华、曹家和,我国外汇储备中黄金配置问题研究[J],《上海金融》,2011年第1期
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7 范世妙.黄金作为我国国际储备研究[D].浙江人学硕士学位论文,2008年
1 周洁卿,论我国黄金储备适度规模及其实现途径,《上海金融》,2005年第11期,35页
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1 Nasser Saidi、Fabio Scacciavillani (2010), the role of gold as a reserve asset in GCC, www.SSRN_id1694333,2010.10.
2 Dick Ware(2010),黄金在储备管理中的地位,引自《各国如何管理储备资产》,中国金融出版社,张伟,史炜译,204页
1 虞光涛、钱曾慰(1981b),资本主义国家的金银比价和黄金储备,《金融研究》,1981年
2 边立铭(1998),世界黄金储备和黄金市场探析,《世界经济》,1998年第2期
3 周洁卿(2009)、周洁卿(2006)
4 陈全(2011)
5 王仲会(2007)、周洁卿(2009)、张华忠(2008)
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1 尹杰(2000),谈我国黄金储备的规模问题[J],《中国黄金经济》,2000年第4期
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1 虞关涛,资本主义国家的金银比价与黄金储备[J],《金融研究》,1981年第11期
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1 数据来源：Gold demand trends third quarter 2013. World Gold Council.http://www.gold.org.
1 Brian M Lucy.London or New York:where and when does the gold price originate?2012,世界黄金协会网站
2 范为,关于黄金定价的一些研究[D],电子科技大学,博士学位论文,2012年
3 Important waring indicators on financial crisis and dynamic switching of gold pricing models
4 Dirk G. Baur 和Kristoffer J. Glover. A Gold Bubble?.2012
1 Phillips, P. C. B. and Yu, J. (2011). Dating the timeline of financial bubbles during the subprime crisis. Quantitative Economics,2:455-491.
2 Lingjie Ma and George Patterson(2012). Is Gold Overpriced?. ssrn.com/abstract=2157666.
3 Belke,Ansgar "Effect of Global liquidity on commodity and food prices" world development in press,2012
4 Michael D. Bordo,Robert T. Dittmar,William T. Gavin(2003).Gold,Fiat money and price stability,ssrn.com/abstract_id=896282
5 Natalia Chernyshoff (2005).Stuck on gold:real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard,https://nber.org/papers/w11795
1 Clawar, Harry:"A New Gold War?", www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_00/clarwar031300.html.
1 Dimitri Speck,秘密黄金政策一为何中央银行要操纵黄金价格?上海财经大学出版社,2011年,75页
2 FOMC19930518meeting.pdf, p.40-41,引自Dimitri Speck《秘密黄金政策-为何中央银行要操纵黄金价格?》,第102页,上海财经大学出版社,2011年
3 Jan Skoyles, Unveiling the gold market's working parts. Gold Bullion, independent comment&analysis.
4 Bud Conrad, Physical Gold vs.Paper Gold:The Ultimate Disconnect
1 Steven W. Sumner, Robert Johnson Luc Soenen(2010).Spillover effects among gold,stocks and bonds,ssrn.com
2 Edel&Brian(2007).An APGARCH investigation of the main influences on the gold priee.http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=792205.
3 Brooks,Robert D.&Faff, Robert W. & Mckenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather,(2000), "An multicountry study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns",Journal of Internantional Money and Finance,Elsevier,Vol.19(3),pages 377-397,June
4 Shaun K. Roache and Marco Rossi(2009).The effect of economic news on commodity prices:Is gold just another commodity?[J]. http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1442242.
1 许贵阳.中国黄金期货市场套期保值功能实证研究[J].黄金.2011年第11期
1 王志军.欧元区金融一体化进程中的金融绩效：基于金融功能观的分析.欧洲研究,2008年第5期
2 Levine,R.1997.FinancialDevelopment and Economic Growth:Views and Agenda. Journal of Economic Literature 35:688-726
3 Allen,Franklin and Douglas Gale.2001.Comparative Financial Systems:A Survey.http://finance.wharton.upenn.edu/-allenf/download/Vita/PublishedPapers.htm.Working Paper
1 孙立坚、李安心、牛晓梦,2003,金融体系的脆弱性不会影响经济增长吗?—来自对中国案例实证分析的答案,厦门：全国金融理论高级研讨会会议论文
2 白钦先.金融结构、金融功能演进与金融发展理论的研究历程[J].经济评论,2005年第3期,P39-45
3 谭加劲,高洁.金融租赁与中小企业融资：基于金融功能理论的探讨[J]南方金融,2007年第4期
1 彼得·L.伯恩斯坦.黄金简史[M].第一章黄金险中求,上海财经大学出版社.2008：4
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第二章,迈达斯的企望和纯粹机缘的产物,上海财经大学出版社.2008：23
3 吕底亚王国是小亚西亚西部的富裕古国
1 [英]弗里德里希·冯·哈耶克.货币的非国家化[M],第三章,政府垄断铸币的起源,2007年,27页
1 德国中南部城市,德国历史上最悠久的城市之一,始建于公元前15年罗马帝国时期。
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第七章.巨大的连锁反应.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,116页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第七章.巨大的连锁反应.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,116页
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第八章.分崩离析的时代和君王的赎金.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,133页
3 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第八章.分崩离析的时代和君王的赎金..上海财经大学出版社.2008年,135页
4 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十章.致命的毒药与私人货币.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,167页
1 Boeyer-Xambeu, Marie-Therese, Ghislain Deleplace and Lucien Gillard,1994,P.116. Private Money& Public Currencies:The 16th Century Challenge. Translated by Azizeh Azodi. Armonk, NY:M.E. Sharpe
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十章.致命的毒药与私人货币.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,186页
1 伯恩斯坦《黄金简史》,笔者认为这或许只是一个次要原因。更主要的原因是,中国已于唐朝时期就发明和运用了纸币。中国较西方更早学会了管理和使用纸币。
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008年,14页
1 李嘉图,《李嘉图著作和通信集》第三卷,“关于金价报告写给《晨报》的三封信”,P249
1 《1900年金本位法案》
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008：7
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十四章.新的霸主与可憎的发现.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,258页
1 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,111页
2 Machlup,Fritz,1964, International payments, debts and gold. New York:Charles Scribner's Sons,2943页
3 Bloomfield, Arthur.1959. Money Policy under the international Gold Standard,1880-1914. New York:Federal Reserve Bank of New York.1963. "Short-Term Capital movement under the Pre-1914 Gold Standard." Princeton Studies in International Finance 11. International Finance Section,Department of Economics, Princeton University, Princeton, N.J
4 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,125页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十七章.诺曼征服.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,334页
2 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,344页
3 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,348页
4 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,351页
5 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
1 谈谭.从货币战到有限合作——1933-1936年美英法三国货币外交[J].世界历史.2009年第6期,27页
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
3 Perter L.Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十八章.一个时代的终结.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,352页
1 Perter L. Bernstein.《黄金简史》第十九章.非凡的价值.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,367页
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,58页
1 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第四卷宏观经济学和国际货币史[M].中国金融出版社,2003年,66-67页
1 1965年,美国取消了联储成员银行在联储存款需要25%法定黄金保证的规定,1968年进一步取消了联储美元钞票背后的黄金保证
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[M],中国金融出版社,2003年,126页
1 Perter L.Bernstein.《黄金简史》第二十章.第八次世界大战与三十盎司黄金.上海财经大学出版社.2008年,389页
2 本部分引自邹琼.黄金和美元的跷跷板?[J].金融博览.2013年第3期,51页
1 价格为伦敦金下午定盘价年度均价,数据来源：KITCO
2 1980年1月21日,黄金触及850美元历史高位
1 以上观点参考Mundell (2000),唐双宁(2009)
1 本杰明·格雷戈姆.储备与稳定[M].P92
2 蒙代尔.蒙代尔经济学文集第六卷国际货币：过去、现在和未来[Ml,中国金融出版社,2003：132页
3 以上观点参考Mundell (2000),唐双宁(2009)
1 2004年9月6日,伦敦金银市场协会2004年会在上海举行,周小川在题为《充分发挥黄金市场的投资管理功能》的讲话中指出“中国黄金市场应实现三个转变”。
1 巴里·艾肯戈林,资本全球化国际货币体系史(第二版),上海：上海人民出版社,2008：10
2 王仲会,《黄金、货币、金融安全——中国黄金体系改革与发展研究》,P71
3 THE LONDON BULLION MARKET ASSOCIATION的缩写。
1 2013年,中国银行间交易商协会起草制定了《中国场外黄金衍生产品交易基本术语(2013年版),并已经中国人民银行备案通过。
2 《2011年中国黄金市场报告》第五章商业银行黄金业务,23页
1 Gorton G and Rouwenhorst KG (2006). Facts and fantasies about commodity futures. Working Paper No. 10595. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), March.
2 International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2008). Global Financial Stability Report, Chapter I, Annex 1.2. Washington, DC.
1 Gorton G and Rouwenhorst KG (2006). Facts and fantasies about commodity futures. Working Paper No.10595. National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), March.
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4 UNCTAD (2005). Trade and Development Report,2005 Chapter Ⅱ:Income Growth and Shifting Trade Patterns in Asia. United Nations publication, New York and Geneva.
1 Engle,Robert F and Victor K. Ng. Measuring and Testing the impact of News on Volatility. Journal of Finance,1993,48:1022-1082
1 Martha Starr, Ky Tran. Determinants of the physicaldemand for gold:Evidence from panel data [J].working paper,2007 (9)
2 An introduction to the global gold market.www.goldbarsworldwide.com
3 GFMS, Retail gold investment and private investor stocks-a review,2011.11
1 刘山恩,黄金：规避金融风险的港湾,中国黄金经济,1998年第5期。
1 数据来源：彭博资讯,黄金价格采用美元计价的伦敦黄金现货价格。
2 Gold as a hedge against the us dollar,world gold council, research study No 30
1 Dick Ware,黄金在储备管理中的地位,引自《各国如何管理储备资产》,205页
1 Barry Eichengreen, Donald J. Mathieson,外汇储备的货币构成：回顾与展望,引自《各国如何管理储备资产》,82页
1 宋鸿兵,《货币战争》P237,中信出版社,2007年6月
2 黄金反垄断行动委员会(Gold anti-trust action comitee)主席比尔莫非认为JP摩根、英格兰银行、德意志银行、花旗银行、高盛公司、国际清算银行、美国财政部和美联储构成蓄谋打击黄金价格的特殊利益
1 《货币的祸害》商务印书馆,2007,米尔顿弗里德曼,第四章一个非真实的检验：对1873年后继续复本位制的效应的估算,P88
1 伦敦金银市场协会(LBMA),《伦敦金银市场指南》第45页“专业术语表”,2001
2 Gary O'Callaghan, "the structure and operation of the world gold market", IMF working paper, December 1991
3 中国银行、中国工商银行、中国建设银行、中信银行、招商银行、光大银行
1 中国人民银行上海总部《中国金融市场发展报告》编写组,《中国金融市场发展报告》,中国金融出版社,2007-2011年
2 1盎司=31.1035克
1 马来西亚联昌国际银行http://www.cimbbank.com.my/index.php?ch=cb per st&pg=eb_per_st_inv&ac=12&tpt=cimb bank;科威特金融公司(马来西亚)http://www.kfh.com.my/kfhmb/;马来西亚银行http://www.maybaank2u.com.my/mbb_info/m2u/public/personalDetai104. do?channelId=INV-Investment &cntTypeId=0&cntKey=INV03.02&programId=:IWV03-Gold&chCatId=/mbb/Personal/INV-Investment;大众银行(马来西亚)http://www.pbebank.com/en/en_content/personal/investments/gold.html;大华银行(马来西亚)http://wwwl.uob.com.my/personal/index.html;香港恒生银行ittp://bank.hangseng.com/1/2/chi/hom;永亨银行(香港)www.whbhk.com;台湾银行www.bot.com.tw;台湾合作金库银行www.tcb-bank.com.tw/Pages/index.aspx;大华银行(新加坡)www.uobgroup.com;
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