基于R-SCP的中国钨产业组织优化研究
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摘要
钨是一种重要的战略金属。中国钨业具有得天独厚的资源优势,却没有全球钨资源定价权。钨矿资源的过渡分散开采、环保形势仍然严峻、社会代价沉痛、中低端钨产品产能的重复扩张等现象仍在继续。为推动我国钨产业可持续发展,本文采用寡头竞争理论和SCP理论及相关评价方法,通过实证分析钨产业的市场结构、企业行为、市场绩效,研究了钨产业组织优化的目标模式和路径选择。
课题研究的主要工作和获得的成果如下:
1、依据中国钨产业组织以资源开发型为主的特点,建立SCP修正模型,即资源禀赋一市场结构一企业行为一产业绩效为分析范式(R-SCP),分析论证了中国钨产业的资源禀赋和保障前景,在此基础上进行产业的市场结构、企业行为和绩效的研究,充分考虑资源禀赋对产业开发和发展的保障作用,以及产业组织优化目标模式与实现目标途径,建立了中国钨产业组织优化的基本理论。
2、我国钨矿资源禀赋和保障前景是我国钨产业组织优化的依据。根据赫克歇尔—俄林模型计算,2005年我国钨矿资源的资源禀赋系数为10.41,中国钨资源的自然禀赋优势突出,但是目前我国钨资源消耗过快,黑钨矿产资源开发比例过大,按目前年消耗10万t计算,静态服务年限只有14年。因此,加强老矿区的二次找矿和对钨矿地质勘探资金的投入,提高钨精矿冶炼加工实收率,加强对再生钨的利用,是我国钨工业可持续健康发展的必由之路。
3、基于钨产业组织优化的根本问题是解决钨产业市场结构问题的认识,对钨产业市场结构进行了深入的研究。通过对我国钨品的产业集中度计算,发现我国钨品采选、冶炼和深加工的寡占程度依次提高,但是在采选行业仍然竞争比较激烈。之所以出现这样的市场结构是由钨资源分布的自然原因和中国市场经济体制发展双重原因导致的。而对近15年来钨产品结构实证研究表明,我国钨品呈现短期变化趋势与长期结构演进不一致的趋势,说明我国钨品的发展只是追求产量的扩张,而没有很好的达到产品优化的结果。
4、通过钨产业企业行为实证研究表明,我国钨产业经历了计划经济到市场经济的过渡,由于长期以来我国钨产业集中度低,产能分散,产业内各企业之间缺乏信息沟通与协商机制,中国钨产业曾经出现过1980年代、2004年两次恶性竞争的局面,给国家造成了巨大的经济损失。随着钨产业的发展,中国钨产业企业行为日趋理性,大型钨业集团在产业发展与整合中扮演重要的角色。同时研究表明,钨协及钨产业的自组织力量也起到了很好的促进和保障作用。
5、基于钨产业市场结构和企业行为的变化,市场绩效也发生相应变化。研究表明,中国钨产业运营状况的不断好转,绩效水平逐年提高,利润正从下游逐渐往上游钨矿山倾斜;但勒纳指数表明,中国钨产业还长期处于过渡竞争状态。
6、基于以上分析,提出中国钨产业市场结构发展的目标模式是实现有效竞争的市场格局;产品结构的优化目标是大力发展高附加值的钨产品,使钨产业链各环节的利润按硬质合金、钨矿山和冶炼次序来分布。产业组织优化实现途径是重点发展湖南有色、厦门钨业、五矿有色为载体的三大产业集团,推动三大集团进行产业整合,并尝试进一步组建欧佩克式的中国钨业卡特尔,实现产业链的优化和国内钨业的整合发展,进而携手开拓国际市场,控制海外资源,加快技术创新。
7、结合我国钨产业市场的现状,本文提出了有效钨产业规制的政府目标,贯彻科学发展观,对钨工业实行宏观调控,减少生产量和出口量,为我国经济发展实行资源保障,实现钨矿资源的可持续利用和社会经济的可持续发展。并进一步的构建了以准入政策为门槛,以鼓励并购为导向,以资源储备为依托,以发展循环经济为保障的基本产业政策的组织框架。
The tungst(?)n is a kind of important strategic metals. The Chinese tungsten industry has abundant resources, but has no global price power correspondingly. The distributed exploitation of tungsten mineral resources, the rigorous environmental protection situation and the heavy social cost, low and medium level tungsten productions, such phenomenon continues still. To push our country tungsten industry development, this paper uses competition theories and SCP theories and related evaluation methods, through the analyses of the market structure, market behavior, market performance of tungsten industry, this paper studies tungsten industry organization optimization of target mode and path choice.
The main works of the research and result as follows:
(1) According to the main characteristics of Chinese tungsten industry organization as source exploitation, this paper establishes SCP revising model, namely resources gift - market structure - business enterprise behavior - industry performance which is analytical model type(R-SCP), this paper analyses the resources gift of Chinese tungsten industry and guarantee foreground, then carries on researching the market structure, market behavior of the industry and the performance on this foundation. This paper full considers resources gift to guarantee of industry development and tungsten industry organization optimization of target mode and path choice, then builds up basic theories of Chinese tungsten industry organization optimization.
(2) Resources gift and guarantee foreground of our country tungsten mineral resources is the basis of our country tungsten industry organization optimization. According to the Resource born gift index -Russia forest model computation, in 2005 our country tungsten mineral the resources gift of the resources coefficient is 10.41, the natural gift advantage of the Chinese tungsten resources is outstanding, but in our country the tungsten resources consumed quickly at present, the exploitation proportion of black tungsten mineral resources is too great, if in a year consume currently 100,000 ton black tungsten mineral, then the static service time is only 14 years. Therefore strengthening seeking for the old mineral area two times and promoting investigate devotion of exploring funds to the tungsten mineral geology, raising the tungsten purified ore mineral smelt to process a net receipt rate, strengthening the exploitation toward the reborn tungsten, are necessarily roads to keep on a healthy development of the tungsten industry in our country
(3) The basic problem of tungsten industry organization optimization is the understanding of the tungsten industry market structure. This paper carries on a thorough research on the market structure of the tungsten industry. Through the calculation of industry concentration toward our country tungsten, we discover in our country the mining and mill run, smelt, deeply process of few have degree to raise one by one in order, but in mining and mill run area, competition is still more drastically because of natural resource distribution and Chinese market economy system evolvement. The research on the last 15 years tungsten production structure evolvement finds that in our country the tungsten production structure shows the evolvement of short time differs with long-term structure evolvement. This explains that in our country the development of tungsten just pursues yield to extend, but have no good result of production optimization.
(4) Through demonstration research of the tungsten industry market behavior, we finds from planed economy to market economy, in our country the tungsten industry once experienced 1980's and 2004's two badly competition because of the tungsten industry concentration degree is low in long time, the productivity dispersion, and lacks of information communication and negotiates mechanism between business enterprise inside the industry, to the country resulted in huge of economy loss. Along with the development of tungsten industry, Chinese tungsten industry market behavior turns on gradually reasonableness, the large tungsten industry group plays important role in the industry development and integration. The study also shows China Tungsten Industry Association and the tungsten industry strength from organization also had good effect and played guarantee function.
(5) The market performance also varies correspondingly according to the variety of the tungsten industry market structure and the market behavior. The research indicates the Chinese tungsten industry management condition turns better continuously, the performance level raises year by year, the profits is swimming from downstream to upwards tungsten mineral mountains But the index number of Lerner makes know that the Chinese tungsten industry still competes too heavy over a long period of time.
(6) On the base of above analysis, this paper puts forward that the target mode of Chinese tungsten industry market structure development is oligopoly, the goal of production structure optimization is to develop high worthy affixture production, so make tungsten industry profits distributes in value link of the mining and mill run, smelt, deeply process. According to Chinese reality, the industry organization optimization path is to construct HNG, Xiamen tungsten industry, five minerals three industry groups, then through carrying on industry integration, three groups try on setting up Chinese tungsten industry cartel further more. So realize the optimization of industry chain and the integration of the local tungsten industry development, then holding hands to expand an international market, controlling oversea resources, and speed technique innovation.
(7) According to Chinese tungsten industry fact, this paper puts forward valid tungsten industry policy target of the government rules and regulations which is carrying through science development view, implementing macro control to tungsten industry, reducing quantity of production and export, so as to give resource guarantee to our country economy development, and achieve the continuing utilizing of tungsten mineral and continuing development of society economy. This paper also set up such key organization frame: entrance policy for threshold, the encouragement industry integration for direction, resource reserve for support, developing circulation economy for safeguard.
课题研究的主要工作和获得的成果如下:
1、依据中国钨产业组织以资源开发型为主的特点,建立SCP修正模型,即资源禀赋一市场结构一企业行为一产业绩效为分析范式(R-SCP),分析论证了中国钨产业的资源禀赋和保障前景,在此基础上进行产业的市场结构、企业行为和绩效的研究,充分考虑资源禀赋对产业开发和发展的保障作用,以及产业组织优化目标模式与实现目标途径,建立了中国钨产业组织优化的基本理论。
2、我国钨矿资源禀赋和保障前景是我国钨产业组织优化的依据。根据赫克歇尔—俄林模型计算,2005年我国钨矿资源的资源禀赋系数为10.41,中国钨资源的自然禀赋优势突出,但是目前我国钨资源消耗过快,黑钨矿产资源开发比例过大,按目前年消耗10万t计算,静态服务年限只有14年。因此,加强老矿区的二次找矿和对钨矿地质勘探资金的投入,提高钨精矿冶炼加工实收率,加强对再生钨的利用,是我国钨工业可持续健康发展的必由之路。
3、基于钨产业组织优化的根本问题是解决钨产业市场结构问题的认识,对钨产业市场结构进行了深入的研究。通过对我国钨品的产业集中度计算,发现我国钨品采选、冶炼和深加工的寡占程度依次提高,但是在采选行业仍然竞争比较激烈。之所以出现这样的市场结构是由钨资源分布的自然原因和中国市场经济体制发展双重原因导致的。而对近15年来钨产品结构实证研究表明,我国钨品呈现短期变化趋势与长期结构演进不一致的趋势,说明我国钨品的发展只是追求产量的扩张,而没有很好的达到产品优化的结果。
4、通过钨产业企业行为实证研究表明,我国钨产业经历了计划经济到市场经济的过渡,由于长期以来我国钨产业集中度低,产能分散,产业内各企业之间缺乏信息沟通与协商机制,中国钨产业曾经出现过1980年代、2004年两次恶性竞争的局面,给国家造成了巨大的经济损失。随着钨产业的发展,中国钨产业企业行为日趋理性,大型钨业集团在产业发展与整合中扮演重要的角色。同时研究表明,钨协及钨产业的自组织力量也起到了很好的促进和保障作用。
5、基于钨产业市场结构和企业行为的变化,市场绩效也发生相应变化。研究表明,中国钨产业运营状况的不断好转,绩效水平逐年提高,利润正从下游逐渐往上游钨矿山倾斜;但勒纳指数表明,中国钨产业还长期处于过渡竞争状态。
6、基于以上分析,提出中国钨产业市场结构发展的目标模式是实现有效竞争的市场格局;产品结构的优化目标是大力发展高附加值的钨产品,使钨产业链各环节的利润按硬质合金、钨矿山和冶炼次序来分布。产业组织优化实现途径是重点发展湖南有色、厦门钨业、五矿有色为载体的三大产业集团,推动三大集团进行产业整合,并尝试进一步组建欧佩克式的中国钨业卡特尔,实现产业链的优化和国内钨业的整合发展,进而携手开拓国际市场,控制海外资源,加快技术创新。
7、结合我国钨产业市场的现状,本文提出了有效钨产业规制的政府目标,贯彻科学发展观,对钨工业实行宏观调控,减少生产量和出口量,为我国经济发展实行资源保障,实现钨矿资源的可持续利用和社会经济的可持续发展。并进一步的构建了以准入政策为门槛,以鼓励并购为导向,以资源储备为依托,以发展循环经济为保障的基本产业政策的组织框架。
The tungst(?)n is a kind of important strategic metals. The Chinese tungsten industry has abundant resources, but has no global price power correspondingly. The distributed exploitation of tungsten mineral resources, the rigorous environmental protection situation and the heavy social cost, low and medium level tungsten productions, such phenomenon continues still. To push our country tungsten industry development, this paper uses competition theories and SCP theories and related evaluation methods, through the analyses of the market structure, market behavior, market performance of tungsten industry, this paper studies tungsten industry organization optimization of target mode and path choice.
The main works of the research and result as follows:
(1) According to the main characteristics of Chinese tungsten industry organization as source exploitation, this paper establishes SCP revising model, namely resources gift - market structure - business enterprise behavior - industry performance which is analytical model type(R-SCP), this paper analyses the resources gift of Chinese tungsten industry and guarantee foreground, then carries on researching the market structure, market behavior of the industry and the performance on this foundation. This paper full considers resources gift to guarantee of industry development and tungsten industry organization optimization of target mode and path choice, then builds up basic theories of Chinese tungsten industry organization optimization.
(2) Resources gift and guarantee foreground of our country tungsten mineral resources is the basis of our country tungsten industry organization optimization. According to the Resource born gift index -Russia forest model computation, in 2005 our country tungsten mineral the resources gift of the resources coefficient is 10.41, the natural gift advantage of the Chinese tungsten resources is outstanding, but in our country the tungsten resources consumed quickly at present, the exploitation proportion of black tungsten mineral resources is too great, if in a year consume currently 100,000 ton black tungsten mineral, then the static service time is only 14 years. Therefore strengthening seeking for the old mineral area two times and promoting investigate devotion of exploring funds to the tungsten mineral geology, raising the tungsten purified ore mineral smelt to process a net receipt rate, strengthening the exploitation toward the reborn tungsten, are necessarily roads to keep on a healthy development of the tungsten industry in our country
(3) The basic problem of tungsten industry organization optimization is the understanding of the tungsten industry market structure. This paper carries on a thorough research on the market structure of the tungsten industry. Through the calculation of industry concentration toward our country tungsten, we discover in our country the mining and mill run, smelt, deeply process of few have degree to raise one by one in order, but in mining and mill run area, competition is still more drastically because of natural resource distribution and Chinese market economy system evolvement. The research on the last 15 years tungsten production structure evolvement finds that in our country the tungsten production structure shows the evolvement of short time differs with long-term structure evolvement. This explains that in our country the development of tungsten just pursues yield to extend, but have no good result of production optimization.
(4) Through demonstration research of the tungsten industry market behavior, we finds from planed economy to market economy, in our country the tungsten industry once experienced 1980's and 2004's two badly competition because of the tungsten industry concentration degree is low in long time, the productivity dispersion, and lacks of information communication and negotiates mechanism between business enterprise inside the industry, to the country resulted in huge of economy loss. Along with the development of tungsten industry, Chinese tungsten industry market behavior turns on gradually reasonableness, the large tungsten industry group plays important role in the industry development and integration. The study also shows China Tungsten Industry Association and the tungsten industry strength from organization also had good effect and played guarantee function.
(5) The market performance also varies correspondingly according to the variety of the tungsten industry market structure and the market behavior. The research indicates the Chinese tungsten industry management condition turns better continuously, the performance level raises year by year, the profits is swimming from downstream to upwards tungsten mineral mountains But the index number of Lerner makes know that the Chinese tungsten industry still competes too heavy over a long period of time.
(6) On the base of above analysis, this paper puts forward that the target mode of Chinese tungsten industry market structure development is oligopoly, the goal of production structure optimization is to develop high worthy affixture production, so make tungsten industry profits distributes in value link of the mining and mill run, smelt, deeply process. According to Chinese reality, the industry organization optimization path is to construct HNG, Xiamen tungsten industry, five minerals three industry groups, then through carrying on industry integration, three groups try on setting up Chinese tungsten industry cartel further more. So realize the optimization of industry chain and the integration of the local tungsten industry development, then holding hands to expand an international market, controlling oversea resources, and speed technique innovation.
(7) According to Chinese tungsten industry fact, this paper puts forward valid tungsten industry policy target of the government rules and regulations which is carrying through science development view, implementing macro control to tungsten industry, reducing quantity of production and export, so as to give resource guarantee to our country economy development, and achieve the continuing utilizing of tungsten mineral and continuing development of society economy. This paper also set up such key organization frame: entrance policy for threshold, the encouragement industry integration for direction, resource reserve for support, developing circulation economy for safeguard.
引文
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