推销总统：作为执政策略的白宫政治营销
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摘要
自二十世纪六、七十年代以来,美国政治生态的变迁,特别是利益集团的发展、政治筹码的不断增加,以及府会之间关系的紧张程度加剧,对总统在华盛顿政治中传统上所采用的游说策略与协商策略提出了挑战。随着媒体技术及政治咨询业的进步,肯尼迪之后的总统愈加重视通过民意测验、草根动员及宣传广告等类似于商业营销的方法积极寻求民意对自己总体工作及当前议题的支持。人们把这种新型的总统执政手段称为“白宫政治营销”。
简单地说,作为总统执政策略的政治营销就是白宫采用类似商业营销理念与工具进行执政的方法。商业以利润为最终目的,而政治市场上的货币则是民意。随着美国的传统政治生态在后工业时代的不断演变,白宫政治营销活动日益频繁,手段逐渐多样,不仅在很大程度上取代了过去的总统与其他政治行为者之间的沟通和协商原则,还加剧了华盛顿政治过程中的竞争心态。
鉴于政治营销学对中国来说是一个较新的学科,本文将重点回答以下问题:什么是政治营销的本质?白宫政治营销活动如何进行?这种新型执政策略得以出现和发展的原因是什么?对美国的总统政治及美国民主又会产生哪些影响?
通过对白宫政治营销这种新型执政策略进行系统的梳理和考察,本文的结论为:由于促使总统开始大规模利用民意的那些因素仍然存在,白宫政治营销策略将会不断发展;其结果不仅会进一步扩大总统的权力,还会大大增加总统连任的可能性;假如不对此种发展趋势加以限制,华盛顿政治中的对抗性将持续增大,使美国的多元主义民主表现出更多的零和博弈特征。
全文共约十三万字,分为五章。第一章主要回答两个问题:当代美国总统为何愈来愈多地采用政治营销策略?并且,这种策略与注重讨价还价的沟通和协商策略之间的本质区别是什么?
第二章对白宫政治营销的发展历史及现状进行考察,包括白宫公关活动的扩大、总统运用诉诸民众策略的发展,以及民意测验的作用。本章试图说明,尽管当代白宫政治营销的原始形态可以追溯到美国建国之初,但直到上世纪六、七十年代,它才真正成为一种用来增加总统权力的机制化手段;并且,自那时起,美国总统开始越来越多地在执政过程中用到这种领导策略。
第三章回答总统究竟如何利用政治营销战略的问题。首先介绍白宫营销团队的发展,以及政党和利益集团在营销活动中的作用;之后对白宫政治营销战略的运行模式进行详细阐述,尤其强调此种战略的系统性;最后,借助克林顿政府在2000年成功营销对华永久正常贸易关系法案的案例,对以上模式予以更加具体的解释。
第四章通过对1993-94年医疗保健改革法案及1996年联邦预算案中白宫政治营销战略的比较,分析了影响此种战略实施效果的关键变量,具体包括:营销的时机、强度、内部统一性及多种策略之间的配合程度。
第五章研究当代白宫的政治营销活动对于总统政治与美国民主的影响。基于多元主义民主理论,本文根据政治营销与传统的游说及协商策略所产生权力的异质性,区分了这两种执政策略所体现的不同的民主特征。最后,文章指出,虽然总统应该对主流民意的方向保持高度敏感,但是,对政治营销战略的过度依赖必然会对美国民主的长期发展产生众多不利的影响。
文章的结语除了对本文所做研究进行总结外,还对当代各国政府普遍利用民意调查来加强政策合法性的趋势进行了探讨。
The transformation of the political environment in the U.S. since the 1960s and 1970s, especially the development of interest groups, the increase of political stakes and the ever-rising tension between the White House and Capitol Hill, poses a serious challenge to the traditional strategies—namely, lobbying and bargaining—adopted by the President in Washington politics. With the advance of media technologies and political consulting business, Presidents since JFK have gradually applied a marketing strategy to win public support for the Presidency and issues, which is called the "White House political marketing" strategy.
To put simply, the political marketing strategy means that the White House applies the methods and tools of business marketing to the governing process. In the business world, profit is the ultimate goal, while in the political market, public opinion is currency. With the evolution of traditional U.S. political environment in the post-Industrial era, the White House political marketing practice has become more frequent and adopted more tools. This trend is gradually replacing the lobbying and bargaining strategies often resorted to in the past, as well as reinforcing competition in the Washington political process.
Because Political Marketing studies is a totally new discipline in China, this dissertation aims to address the following questions: what is the essence of political marketing? How is White House political marketing conducted? What factors gave rise to the development of such a strategy? And, what impact does this trend of development have on U.S. presidential politics and the U.S. democracy?
Through a systematic exploration into the White House political marketing strategy, the dissertation draws the following conclusions: because the factors that gave rise to the adoption of political marketing strategy still exist, White House political marketing practice will continue to grow, which will not only expand Presidential power, but it will also increase the chance of Presidential re-election success; if no measures are taken to curb this tendency, then Washington politics will be marked by more and more contradiction and conflicts, while the traditional pluralist system of the U.S. will become more like a zero-sum game.
The dissertation totals 130 000 characters and is divided into 5 chapters. Chapter One mainly addresses two questions: why do modern Presidents increasingly adopt this strategy? What is the essential difference between this strategy and the two traditional strategies?
Chapter Two depicts the history and development of White House public strategy, including the expansion of White House public relations efforts, going-public efforts and the ever-rising role of public polling. This chapter intends to prove that, although the primitive form of the strategy can be traced to the foundation of the U.S., yet it has never become an institutionalized strategy of the White House until the 1960s; only since then, Presidents have begun to use it as a major governing method.
Chapter Three addresses how the strategy is used in practice. First, it introduces the White House marketing team, as well as the role of political parties and interest groups in the strategy; next, it provides a model for understanding the strategy, with a focus on the systematic process of the practice; finally, the case of PNTR for China in 2000 is given, in order to help understand the application of the strategy.
Chapter Four examines the use of White House political marketing strategy in two cases, the 1993-94 Medicare Reform and the 1996 Federal Budget, respectively. With a comparative analysis of the two cases, this chapter finds out four key variables that cause different results of the strategy, namely, the timeliness of the public strategy, the degree of the application of the strategy, the internal consent among the White House, and the mixed use of all the political strategies that are available to the President.
Based on the above analysis, Chapter Five focuses on the impact of the increasing White House political marketing practice upon Presidential politics and the U.S. democracy. By examining the heterogeneity of the powers generated by the marketing strategy and other strategies, this chapter probes into the two different styles of pluralism co-existent in the U.S. In the end, it is concluded that, although Presidents should always keep an eye on the changes of mainstream public opinion, yet, if they are so eagerly reactive to the changes and reliant upon political marketing strategy, U.S. democracy will suffer in the long run.
The final part of the dissertation first concludes the whole research, and then comments on the universal trend of many governments to augment the legitimacy of their policies with the tool of public opinion polling.
简单地说,作为总统执政策略的政治营销就是白宫采用类似商业营销理念与工具进行执政的方法。商业以利润为最终目的,而政治市场上的货币则是民意。随着美国的传统政治生态在后工业时代的不断演变,白宫政治营销活动日益频繁,手段逐渐多样,不仅在很大程度上取代了过去的总统与其他政治行为者之间的沟通和协商原则,还加剧了华盛顿政治过程中的竞争心态。
鉴于政治营销学对中国来说是一个较新的学科,本文将重点回答以下问题:什么是政治营销的本质?白宫政治营销活动如何进行?这种新型执政策略得以出现和发展的原因是什么?对美国的总统政治及美国民主又会产生哪些影响?
通过对白宫政治营销这种新型执政策略进行系统的梳理和考察,本文的结论为:由于促使总统开始大规模利用民意的那些因素仍然存在,白宫政治营销策略将会不断发展;其结果不仅会进一步扩大总统的权力,还会大大增加总统连任的可能性;假如不对此种发展趋势加以限制,华盛顿政治中的对抗性将持续增大,使美国的多元主义民主表现出更多的零和博弈特征。
全文共约十三万字,分为五章。第一章主要回答两个问题:当代美国总统为何愈来愈多地采用政治营销策略?并且,这种策略与注重讨价还价的沟通和协商策略之间的本质区别是什么?
第二章对白宫政治营销的发展历史及现状进行考察,包括白宫公关活动的扩大、总统运用诉诸民众策略的发展,以及民意测验的作用。本章试图说明,尽管当代白宫政治营销的原始形态可以追溯到美国建国之初,但直到上世纪六、七十年代,它才真正成为一种用来增加总统权力的机制化手段;并且,自那时起,美国总统开始越来越多地在执政过程中用到这种领导策略。
第三章回答总统究竟如何利用政治营销战略的问题。首先介绍白宫营销团队的发展,以及政党和利益集团在营销活动中的作用;之后对白宫政治营销战略的运行模式进行详细阐述,尤其强调此种战略的系统性;最后,借助克林顿政府在2000年成功营销对华永久正常贸易关系法案的案例,对以上模式予以更加具体的解释。
第四章通过对1993-94年医疗保健改革法案及1996年联邦预算案中白宫政治营销战略的比较,分析了影响此种战略实施效果的关键变量,具体包括:营销的时机、强度、内部统一性及多种策略之间的配合程度。
第五章研究当代白宫的政治营销活动对于总统政治与美国民主的影响。基于多元主义民主理论,本文根据政治营销与传统的游说及协商策略所产生权力的异质性,区分了这两种执政策略所体现的不同的民主特征。最后,文章指出,虽然总统应该对主流民意的方向保持高度敏感,但是,对政治营销战略的过度依赖必然会对美国民主的长期发展产生众多不利的影响。
文章的结语除了对本文所做研究进行总结外,还对当代各国政府普遍利用民意调查来加强政策合法性的趋势进行了探讨。
The transformation of the political environment in the U.S. since the 1960s and 1970s, especially the development of interest groups, the increase of political stakes and the ever-rising tension between the White House and Capitol Hill, poses a serious challenge to the traditional strategies—namely, lobbying and bargaining—adopted by the President in Washington politics. With the advance of media technologies and political consulting business, Presidents since JFK have gradually applied a marketing strategy to win public support for the Presidency and issues, which is called the "White House political marketing" strategy.
To put simply, the political marketing strategy means that the White House applies the methods and tools of business marketing to the governing process. In the business world, profit is the ultimate goal, while in the political market, public opinion is currency. With the evolution of traditional U.S. political environment in the post-Industrial era, the White House political marketing practice has become more frequent and adopted more tools. This trend is gradually replacing the lobbying and bargaining strategies often resorted to in the past, as well as reinforcing competition in the Washington political process.
Because Political Marketing studies is a totally new discipline in China, this dissertation aims to address the following questions: what is the essence of political marketing? How is White House political marketing conducted? What factors gave rise to the development of such a strategy? And, what impact does this trend of development have on U.S. presidential politics and the U.S. democracy?
Through a systematic exploration into the White House political marketing strategy, the dissertation draws the following conclusions: because the factors that gave rise to the adoption of political marketing strategy still exist, White House political marketing practice will continue to grow, which will not only expand Presidential power, but it will also increase the chance of Presidential re-election success; if no measures are taken to curb this tendency, then Washington politics will be marked by more and more contradiction and conflicts, while the traditional pluralist system of the U.S. will become more like a zero-sum game.
The dissertation totals 130 000 characters and is divided into 5 chapters. Chapter One mainly addresses two questions: why do modern Presidents increasingly adopt this strategy? What is the essential difference between this strategy and the two traditional strategies?
Chapter Two depicts the history and development of White House public strategy, including the expansion of White House public relations efforts, going-public efforts and the ever-rising role of public polling. This chapter intends to prove that, although the primitive form of the strategy can be traced to the foundation of the U.S., yet it has never become an institutionalized strategy of the White House until the 1960s; only since then, Presidents have begun to use it as a major governing method.
Chapter Three addresses how the strategy is used in practice. First, it introduces the White House marketing team, as well as the role of political parties and interest groups in the strategy; next, it provides a model for understanding the strategy, with a focus on the systematic process of the practice; finally, the case of PNTR for China in 2000 is given, in order to help understand the application of the strategy.
Chapter Four examines the use of White House political marketing strategy in two cases, the 1993-94 Medicare Reform and the 1996 Federal Budget, respectively. With a comparative analysis of the two cases, this chapter finds out four key variables that cause different results of the strategy, namely, the timeliness of the public strategy, the degree of the application of the strategy, the internal consent among the White House, and the mixed use of all the political strategies that are available to the President.
Based on the above analysis, Chapter Five focuses on the impact of the increasing White House political marketing practice upon Presidential politics and the U.S. democracy. By examining the heterogeneity of the powers generated by the marketing strategy and other strategies, this chapter probes into the two different styles of pluralism co-existent in the U.S. In the end, it is concluded that, although Presidents should always keep an eye on the changes of mainstream public opinion, yet, if they are so eagerly reactive to the changes and reliant upon political marketing strategy, U.S. democracy will suffer in the long run.
The final part of the dissertation first concludes the whole research, and then comments on the universal trend of many governments to augment the legitimacy of their policies with the tool of public opinion polling.
引文
1Arthur M.Schlesinger,Jr.,The Imperial Presidency,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1973.
2[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程——政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
3[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:142.
4Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1960,pp.1-2.
5[美]斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克.总统政治——从约翰·亚当斯到比尔·克林顿的领导艺术[M].黄云等译,北京:新华出版社,2003:60;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,The Public Presidency:The Pursuit of Popular Support,New York:St.Martin's Press,1983,pp.1-6;Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985;Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997.
6 Nicholas J.O'Shaughnessy and Stephan C.M.Henneberg,eds.,The Idea of Political Marketing,London:Praeger Publishers,2002,pp.ⅹⅲ,99-103;Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a Comparative Perspective,Manchester:Manchester University Press,2005,pp.6-7;[美]布鲁斯·埃纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:1;[美]菲利普·科特勒.营销管理(第11版)[M].梅清豪译,上海:上海人民出版社,2003:23.
7 Charles O.Jones,"Knowing What We Want to Know about the Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,pp.710-720.
8 Stanley Kelley,Professional Public Relations and Political Power,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins Press,1956,p.53.
9 Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,p.ⅹⅲ;Philippe J.Maarek,Political Marketing and Communication,London:John Libbey & Co.,1995,p.28.
10 孙鸿,认识政治营销[J].中国公关与发展.2007(10):55-57.
11 赵可金,“导读”,见[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:1-8.
12 Andrew Lock and Phil Harris,"Political Marketing-Vive la Difference!",European Journal of Marketing,1996,Vol.30,No.10,pp.21-31.
13 Nicholas O'Shaughnessy,The Phenomenon of Political Marketing,Basingstoke:Macmillan,1990,p.17.
14 王建.“新闻执政”与“政治营销”[J].徐州师范大学学报(哲学社科版).2007,3:33.
15 郎劲松,侯月娟.现代政治传播与新闻发布制度[J].现代传播.2004,3:34.
16 Patrick Butler and Neil Collins,"A Conceptual Framework for Political Marketing," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,p.57.
17[美]菲利普·科特勒.营销管理(第11版)[M].梅清豪译,上海:上海人民出版社,2003:645-649.
18 Margaret Scammell,"Political Marketing:Lessons from Political Science," Political Studies,1999,Vol.47,pp.718-739.
19 大批关于公共政策过程研究的经典著作已被引入中国。其中包括:[美]卡尔·帕顿,大卫·沙维奇.政策分析和规划的初步方法[M].孙兰芝等译,北京:华夏出版社,2002:
[美]威廉·邓恩.公共政策分析导论[M].谢明等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002,等等。中国学界对西方公共政策理论最为全面的分析,见毛寿龙.西方公共政策的理论发展之路及其对本土化研究的启示[J].中国经济体制改革研究会公共政策研究网:http://www.crcpp.org/cpipphtrnl/maoshoulong/2006-3/28/200603281216_3.htm (2007-02-20)
20 William D.Perreault,Jr.and E.Jerome McCarthy,Basic Marketing:a Global-ManagerialApproach,15~(th)Edition,Boston:McGraw-Hill,2005,pp.38-43.
21[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:8.
22[美]菲利普·科特勒.科特勒说[M].郭永译,北京:当代中国出版社,2005:92.
23 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:264.
24 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001.
25 许多人把“政治公关(political public relations)”与政治咨询、游说,甚至与政治领导拉关系等同起来。实际上,政治公关的首要目标是广人民众,而非某个特定机构或个人。政治游说应归于政治艺术的范畴。
26 唐雁凌,姜国刚.公共关系学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:4;
另见赵宏中.公共关系学(第三版)[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2005:4.
27 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007;
另见[美]库尔茨.张金秀,周荣国译,操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].北京:新华出版社,2000.
28 所谓“权威讲坛(the bully pulpit,有人译作‘天字第一号讲坛')”,尤指总统利用自己职位的特殊性向公众或特定听众发表讲话并说服后者的形式。
29 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.2 & p.104.
30 Ibid,pp.106-136.
31 首次系统分析政治选战中政治营销战略运用的是盖瑞·毛瑟的《政治行销》一书(Gary A.Mauser.Political Marketing:An Approach to Campaign Strategy,New York:Praeger,1983)。之后,多位学者对政治选举中的政治营销应用进行了更加深入的研究。Darren G Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a comparative perspective;Bruce I.Newman,The Marketing of the President:Political Marketing as Campaign Strategy,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1994,等等。
32 Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a comparative perspective,p.1.
33 Bruce I.Newman and Richard M.Perloff,"Political Marketing:Theory,Research,and Applications," in Lynda Lee Kaid,ed.,Handbook of Political Communication Research,London:Lawrence Erlbaum,2004,p.2;另见[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:1.
34 Sidney Blumenthal,The Permanent Campaign,New York:Simon and Schuster,1982.p.7.
35 David R.Mayhew,Congress:The Electoral Connection,New Haven:Yale University Press,1974;Arthur Maass,Congress and the Common Good,New York:Basic Books,1984.
36 Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985;Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly,1997;Richard Rrody,Assessing the President:The Media,Elite Opinion and Public Support,Palo Alto,CA:Stanford University Press,1987.
37 Dan Nimmo,"The Permanent Campaign:Marketing as a Governing Tool," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,pp.73-85.
38 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today 2003-2004 Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.408;Patrick J.Sellers,"Manipulating the Message in the U.S.Congress," The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics,vol.5,no.1,pp.22-31.
39 Elmer E.Cornwell,Jr.,Presidential Leadership of Public Opinion,Bloomington,IN:Indiana University Press,1965;Paul Brace and Barbara Hinckley,Follow the Leader:Opinion Polls and Modern Presidents,New York:Basic Books,1992.
40 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999.
41 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.19-28.
42[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997.另见他的又一著作:Dick Morris,Behind the Oval Office:Getting Reelected Against All Odds,Los Angeles:Renaissance Books,1999,以及Dick Morris,Power Plays:Win or Lose-How History's Great Political Leaders Play the Game,New York:HarperCollins Publishers,2002,pp.110-126.
43 例如,Stephan Hess and James P.Pfiffner,Organizing the Presidency,3~(rd) ed.,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,2002,Chapter 10,pp.146-163;Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003;Jonathan Knuckey and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,"American Political Marketing:George W.Bush and the Republican Party," in Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a Comparative Perspective,pp.39-57;Joseph A.Pika and John Anthony Maltese,The Politics of the Presidency,6~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2006,chapter 3,pp.78-127;Colin Campbell and Bert Rockman,eds.,The George W.Bush Presidency,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2004.
44 Jeffrey E.Cohen and John A.Hamman,"The Polls:Can Presidential Rhetoric Affect the Public's Economic Perceptions?" Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2003,pp.408-422;Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.511.
45 Stephan Hess and James P.Pfiffner,Organizing the Presidency,p.163.
46[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯著,领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:324.原书出版于1978年。
47 同上书,第306页。
48 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,p.ⅹⅵ.
49 George C.Edwards,At the Margins:Presidential Leadership of Congress,New Haven,CT:Yale University Press,1989;Jon Bond and Richard Fleisher,The President in the Legislative Arena,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1990;Mark Peterson,Legislating Together:The White House and Capitol Hill from Eisenhower to Reagan,Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1990;Charles O.Jones,The Presidency in a Separated System,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1994,p.112,146.
50 Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents:The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan,Rev.ed.,New York:Free Press,1990.p.73;Brandice Canes-Wrone and Scott de Marchi,"Presidential Approval and Legislative Success," Journal of Politics,2002,64(2),pp.491-509;Kenneth Collier and Terry Sullivan,"New Evidence Undercutting the Linkage of Approval with Presidential Support and Influence," Journal of Politics,57(1),pp.197-209.
51 Gary Andres,Patrick Griffin and James Thurber,"The Contemporary Presidency:Managing White House-Congressional Relations:Observations from inside the Process," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2000,pp.553-563.
52 Andrew W.Barrett,"Going Public as a Legislative Weapon:Measuring Presidential Appeals Regarding Specific Legislation," Presidential Studies Quarterly,March 2005,pp.1-10;
53 Brendan J.Doherty,"The Politics of the Permanent Campaign:Presidential Travel and the Electoral College,1977-2004," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2007,pp.749-773.
54 Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha,The President's Speeches:Beyond Going Public,Boulder,CO,:Lynne Rienner Press,2006,2006,p.28;另见Richard J.Powell,"'Going Public' Revisited:Presidential Speechmaking and the Bargaining Setting in Congress," Congress & The Presidency,Fall 1999,pp.153-170;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,On Deaf Ears:The Limits of the Bully Pulpit,New Haven:Yale University Press,2003.
55 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004.p.11.
56 John F.Harris,"A Clouded Mirror:Bill Clinton,Polls and the Politics of Survival," in Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,pp.87-105.
57 Bruce Miroff,"Courting the Public:Bill Clinton's Postmodern Education," in Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,p.106.
58 Ibid,pp.120-123.
59 比如,Morris P.Fiorina,Paul E.Peterson and D.Stephan Voss,America's New Democracy,2~(nd) ed.,pp.141-143; Lawrence R.Jacobs,"The Presidency and the Press:The Paradox of the White House Communication War," in Michael Nelson,ed.,The Presidency and the Political System,7~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,pp.305-328.
60 比如,Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.1;Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,p.105;Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.219-233.
61 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.1-2;Joseph A.Pika and John Anthony Maltese,The Politics of the Presidency,p.91;Paul Brace and Barbara Hinckley,Follow the Leader:Opinion Polls and Modern Presidents,New York:Basic Books,1992;Craig A.Rimmerman,Presidency by Plebiscite:The Reagan-Bush Era in Institutional Perspective,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1993.
62 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership;Leroy G.Dorsey,ed.,The Presidency and Rhetorical Leadership,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2002,pp.3-10.
63 Morris P.Fiorina,Paul E.Peterson and D.Stephan Voss,America's New Democracy,2~(nd) ed.,New York:Pearson Education,Inc.,2004,p.13;Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.34-35;Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000.
64 的确有为数不多的人进行了此类研究。比如,黑斯的研究很大程度上基于尼克松、福特、卡特、里根及布什总统的解密文档。见Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004.
65 这个现象极为普遍。一个明显的证据是,在绝大多数有关白宫公关及诉诸民众策略的著作中,出现最多的例子是里根、卡特、甚至尼克松之前的总统;对克林顿和小布什白宫政治营销活动的研究则相当缺乏。
66[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:3-5.
67 参见许云霄.公共选择理论[M].第2-4章:Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Pofitical Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,pp.3-18.
1 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,New York:Harper and Row,1953,p.333.
2 W.Lance Bennett,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,p.18.
3 转引自 George C.Edwards Ⅲ,The Public Presidency:The Pursuit of Popular Support,New York:St.Martin's Press,1983,p.1.
4 Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1980,pp.1-2.
5[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
6 John E.Mueller,War,Presidents and Public Opinion,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1973,pp.69-74.
7 Corey Cook,"The Permanence of the 'Permanent Campaign':George W.Bush's Public Presidency,"Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,p.753.
8 Alison Mitchell,"Clinton Seems to Keep Running Though the Race Is Run and Won," New York Times,February 12,1997,A12.
9 Charles O.Jones,The Presidency in a Separated System,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1994,p.11.
10 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003.p.404.
11 转引自胡晓进,任东来.美国总统与国会的对外事务权之争[A].见:孙哲.美国国会研究Ⅱ[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003:7-8.译文经笔者修改。
12 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:54-61.
13 Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,pp.399-403.
14 M.J.C.Vile,Politics in the USA,5~(th) Edition,New York:Routledge,1999,Chapter 7.
15 马清槐.潘恩选集[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981:245-246;
[美]汉密尔顿,杰伊,麦迪逊.联邦党人文集[M].程逢如等译,北京:商务印书馆,2006.第47-51篇。
16 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:106.
17 Jon R.Bond and Richard Fleisher,The President in the Legislative Arena,Chicago:University of Chicag 1990,p.1.
18 George C.Edwards,Ⅲ,"Building Coalitions," Presidential Studies Quarterly,March 2000,p.63.
19 U.S.Congress:Congressional Quarterly Report,December 31,1994,pp.3657-3658.
20 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,pp.335-336.
21 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):66-67.
22[英]切斯特菲尔德.一生的忠告:一位外交家爸爸给孩子的信[M].刘树林,崔黎丽译,北京:北京海潮出版社,2004.
23[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:278-280.
24 转引自 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,pp.19-20.
25[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:27.
26[美]R.肯尼迪.十三天:古巴导弹危机回忆录[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1977.
27 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,6~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,pp.366-7.
28 Douglass Carter,Power in Washington,New York:Vintage,1964,p.75.
29[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:702-703.
30 加里·奥尔德里奇.白宫内姆--联邦探员眼中的克林顿政府[M].南京:江苏人民出版社,1998.
31 Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.510.
32 “签署声明”是总统在签署一项法案时同时发表的一份声明,用来表示总统对该法案的态度或者总统将要求行政部门如何执行该项法案。虽然签署声明不具有法律效力,但却对行政部门的执行起到指导、甚至命令的作用。因此,这也是总统的“引申权力”之一。小布什是美国历史上发表最多签署声明的总统。见 Christopher S.Kelley,"Contextualizing the Signing Statement," Presidential Studies Quarterly,vol.37,no.4,December 2007,pp.738-755.
33 李道揆.美国政府和美国政治[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999:94-97.
34 Dan Nimmo,"The Permanent Campaign:Marketing as a Governing Tool," in Brace I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.73-85.
35 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.3.
36[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].2005:579.
37 Jeffrey Birnbaum,The Lobbyists,New York:Times Books,1993,p.4.
38 Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.196.
39[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].2005:232.
40 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,p.248.
41 Federal Election Commission:http://www.fec.gov/press/press2005/20050412pac/PACFinal2004.html (2007-01-8)
42 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.127.
43 Carroll J.Glynn,et.al.,Public Opinion,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.362-363.
44 Morris P.Fiorina,"Political Change in the States:Another Example of Unintended Consequences?" in Bryan D.Jones,ed.,The New American Politics:Reflections on Political Change and the Clinton Administration,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1995,pp.123-124.
45 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.47;另见 David A.Crockett,"The President as Opposition Leader," Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2000,p.252.
46 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,p.260.
47[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:336-339;另见Warren E.Miller and J.Merrill Shanks,The New American Voter,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1996.
48 David A.Crockett."The President as Opposition Leader"p.252.其他五位榜上有名的总统分别是:哈里森-泰勒(1841-43)、克里夫兰(1893-95)、威尔逊(1913-19)以及艾森豪威尔(1953-54)。
49 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,p.257.
50 Richard Fleisher and Jon R.Bond,"Partisanship and the President's Quest for Votes on the Floor of Congress,"in Jon R.Bond and Richard Fleisher,eds.,Polarized Politics:Congress and the President in a Partisan Era,Washington,D.C.:CQ Press,2000.
51 Jennifer Lees-Marshment,The Political Marketing Revolution:Transforming the Government of the UK,Manchester:Manchester University Press,2004,pp.4-5.
52 Fran J.Sorauf and Paul Allen Beck,Party Politics in America,6~(th) Edition,Glenview,IL:Scott,Foresman and Company,1988,p.98.
53 盖洛普民调报告 http://www.gallup.com/poll/26308/Democratic-Edge-Partisanship-2006-Evident-National -State-Levels.aspx(2007-04-23)
54 Everett Carll Ladd,Jr.and Charles D.Hadley,Transformations of the American Party System:Political Coalitions from the New Deal to the 1970s,2~(nd) Edition,New York:Norton,1978,p.329.
55 Martin P.Wattenberg,The Decline of American Parties,1952-1980,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1984,p.ⅹⅴ.
56 Richard Rose,The Postmodern Presidency:The White House Meets the World,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House Publishers,1988,pp.121-122.
57 Austin Ranney,"The Political Parties:Reform and Decline," in Anthony Kind,ed.,The New American Political System,Washington,D.C.:American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,1979,p.245.
58 Norman C.Thomas,Joseph A.Pika and Richard Watson,The Politics of the Presidency,2~(nd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.77.
59[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:24-26.
60 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.19.
61 世界知识网:http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0878225.html(2007-02-09)
62[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:59.
63 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.11.
64 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.127.
65 Gregory N.Flemming,"Presidential Coattails in Open-seat Elections," Legislative Studies Quarterly,May 1995,pp.197-212.
66 George C.Edwards,Ⅲ and Stephen Wayne,Presidential Leadership,5~(th) Edition,New York:St.Martin's,1999.
67 张立平.金钱与政治腐败--试论美国竞选经费改革[J].国际论坛.2001(10):58-65.
68 联邦竞选委员会:http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/fecfeca.shtml#Campaign_Finance_Law(2007-10-28)
69 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," pp.26-27.
70 Lori Cox Han,"The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities," in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.164.
71 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," p.21.
72 参见 John J.Dulio,Jr.,"Inside the Bush Presidency:Reflections of an Academic Interloper," in Allen J.Cigler and Burdett A.Loomis,eds.,American Politics:Classic and Contemporary Readings,6th Edition,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2005,Chapter 11.4.
73[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:33-34.
74 Robert M.Entman,Democracy without Citizens:Media and the Decay of American Politics,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1989,pp.17-23.
75 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," pp.22-23.
76 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,pp.119-123.
77 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.3.
78 Richard Morris,Behind the Oval Office:Getting Reelected Against All Odds,Los Angeles:Renaissance,1999,p.143.
79 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:279-280.
80 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.30.
81 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Robert Y.Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Communication and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,pp.48-49.
82 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267-279;另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.256-259.
83 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.1.
84[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:22-24.
85 The Center for Public Integrity:http://www.publicintegrity.org/consultants/report.aspx?aid=533(2007-06-23)
86[美]苏珊·特伦托.超级说客[M].新新闻编译小组译,台北:新新闻文化事业股份有限公司,1995:320-323.
87 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.6-9.
88 The Center for Public Integrity:http://www.publicintegrity.org/consultants/report.aspx?aid=533(2007-06-23);另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,p.255.
89 《环球时报》,2005年7月20日,第20版;另见Martha Joynt Kumar and Terry Sullivan,eds.,The White House World:Transitions,Organizations,and Office Operations,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2003,p.363,389.
90 Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha,The President's Speeches:Beyond Going Public,Boulder,CO:Lynne Rienner Press,2006,p.28;Richard J.Powell,"' Going Public' Revisited:Presidential Speechmaking and the Bargaining Setting in Congress," Congress & The Presidency,Fall 1999,pp.153-170;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,On Deaf Ears:The Limits of the Bully Pulpit,New Haven:Yale University Press,2003.
91 Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Political Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes,"in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.3-18.
92[美]安东尼·唐斯.民主的经济理论[M].姚洋等译,上海:上海世纪出版集团,2005.第二章。
93 转引自[加]迈克尔·豪利特,M·拉米什.公共政策研究:政策循环与政策子系统[M].庞诗等译,北京:三联书店,2006:33-34.
94 例如,许云霄.公共选择理论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006:174-179.
95[美]迈克尔·罗斯金等.政治科学(第6版)[M].北京:华夏出版社,2001:288-292.
[美]希尔斯曼.美国是如何治理的[M].曹大鹏译,北京:商务印书馆,1986:140;
[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:240-242.
96 关于议员更重视自己的“代理人”职责还足“委托人”职责,学界一直有不同的看法。大多数学者倾向于前者。见[美]David R.Mayhew.事关选举:美国国会的政治解读[M].蒋昌建译,上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:366-367.
97 参见 Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Political Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketine,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications.1999,p.5;此外,《营销总统》的作者纽曼教授也对本图的制定提出了宝贵意见,在此表示感谢。
98 Gary Andres,Patrick Griffin and James Thurber,"The Contemporary Presidency:Managing White House-Congressional Relations:Observations from inside the Process," Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2000.p.555.
99[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].2007:406-407.
100 Alison Theaker,The Public Relations Handbook,2~(nd) Edition,Oxfordshire:Routledge,2004,p.8.
101 参见 Anthony Corrado,"Running Backward:the Congressional Money Chase," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.78.
102 Ibid,p.104.
103 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W.Bush,the Media,and the Truth,New York:Touchstone,2004,Chapter 8.
1 James Deakin,Straight Stuff,New York:William Morrow,1984,p.44.
2 Roderick P.Hart,The Sound of Leadership:Presidential Communication in the Modern Age,Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1987,p.6.
3[法]托克维尔.论美国的民主[M].张晓明译,北京:北京出版社,2007;另见John Markoff.Waves of Democracy,Thousand Oaks,CA:Pine Forge Press,1996,p.3.
4 Hugh Heclo,“Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.17.
5 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,Mahwah,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1998,p.17.
6 Lewis W.Wolfson,The Untapped Power of the Press:Explaining Government to the People,New York:Praeger,1985,p.13.
7 李龙.试论美国1798年《惩治煽动叛乱法案》[J].株洲师范高等专科学校学报.2004(06).
8 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.19.
9 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,pp.19-20.
10 Dom Bonafede,“Presidents and the News Media,” in Harold F.Bass,Jr.,et.al.,eds.,The Presidents and the Public,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1990,p.48.
11 John William Ward,Andrew Jackson:Symbol for an Age,New York:Oxford University Press,1955.
12 柯南道尔在一部侦探小说中为了解当时美国报界的党派倾向提供了生动的案例。见[英]阿瑟·柯南道尔著,李家云译,《福尔摩斯探案集》,第四部(《恐怖谷》)。
13 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.23.
14 John Tebbel and Sarah M.Watts,The Press and the Presidency,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1985,p.258.
15 参见[美]埃里克·方纳.美国自由的故事[M].王希译,北京:商务印书馆,2002.第六章:Erik Barnouw,ed.,Conglomerates and the Media,New York:The New Press,1997.
16 转引自Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1981,p.21.
17 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:30-31;Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.32.
18 Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1981,p.22.
19 Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.447.
20 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.143.
21 Lori Cox Han,“The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities,” in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.164.
22 Betty H.Winfield,FDR and the News Media,Champaign:University of Illinois Press,1991,p.91.
23 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.41.
24 Ibid,p.44.
25 Ibid.
26 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.143-144.
27 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,pp.44-68.
28 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,p.145.
29 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings,2000,pp.153-155.
30 W.Lance Bennett,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,p.221.
31[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史——希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:257.
32 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.95.
33 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.146-147.
34 参见 John J.Dulio,Jr.,“Inside the Bush Presidency:Reflections of an Academic Interloper,” in Allen J.Cigler and Burdett A.Loomis,eds.,American Politics:Classic and Contemporary Readings,6th Edition,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2005,Chapter 11.4.
35 Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,Princeton:Princeton University Press,1987,p.64.
36 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.31-33.
37 Theodore Roosevelt,Theodore Roosevelt:An Autobiography,New York:De Capo Press,1985,pp.366-367.
38 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.2.
39 Mary E.Stuckey,The President as Interpreter-in-Chief,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House Publishers,1991,p.25.
40 Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,p.96.
41 Carol Gelderman,All the Presidents' Words:The Bully Pulpit and the Creation of the Virtual Presidency,New York:Walker and Company,1997,pp.6-7.
42 John Morton Blum,Woodrow Wilson and the Politics of Morality,Boston:Little Brown,1956,pp.189-191.
43 Richard W.Waterman,"Closing the Expectations Gap:The Presidential Search for New Political Resources,” in Richard W.Waterman,ed.,The Presidency Reconsidered,Itasca,IL:F.E.Peacock Publishers,1993,p.25.
44 C-Span Survey,Feb.21,2000,quoted from Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.448.
45 刘绪贻.战后美国史:1945-2000[M].北京:人民出版社,2002:26-28.
46 David S.Mclellan and John W.Reuss,"Foreign and Military Policies," in Richard S.Kirkendall,ed.,The Truman Period as a Research Field,Columbia:University of Missouri Press,1967,pp.55-57.
47 刘绪贻主编,战后美国史:1945-2000[M].2002:27-31.
48 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.26.
49 Gary King and Lyn Ragsdale,The Elusive Executive:Discovering Statistical Patterns in the Presidency,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1988,pp.262-274;Roderick P.Hart,The Sound of Leadership:Presidential Communication in the Modern Age,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1987,p.157;Martha Joynt Kumar,"Source Material:The White House and the Press:New Organizations as a Presidential Resource and as a Source of Pressure," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2003,pp.669-683;Lod Cox Han,"The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities," in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.170-173.
50 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.106.
51 George Skelton,"Reagan Dip in Poll Tied to Spending Cuts," Los Angeles Times,March 19,1981,p.6,quoted from Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.145.
52 Ibid,p.146.
53 Ibid.
54 Mark J.Rozell,"In Reagan's Shadow:Bush's Anti-rhetorical Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,Winter 1998,pp.127-138.
55 转引自 Wynton C.Hall,"'Reflections of Yesterday':George H.W.Bush's Instrumental Use of Public Opinion Research in Presidential Discourse," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2002,p.538.
56 Marlin Fitzwater,"Memo to Any Card and David Demarest on Regional Media Coverage," Marlin Fitzwater Files[OA/ID 13204],1990,February 23,College Station,TX:George Bush Presidential Library.
57[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:76.
58 Carol Gelderman,All the Presidents'Words:The Bully Pulpit and the Creation of the Virtual Presidency,New York:Walker and Company,1997,p.8.
59 B.Dan Wood,The Politics of Economic Leadership,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2007,pp.1-5.
60[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:37-38.
61 Elvin T.Lim,"Five Trends in Presidential Rhetoric:An Analysis of Rhetoric from George Washington to Bill Clinton," Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2002,pp.328-348.
62 Steven M.Gillon and Cathy D.Matson,The American Experiment:A History of the United States,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2002,pp.277-279.
63 Burdett Loomis,"From the Framing to the Fifties:Lobbying in Constitutional and Historical Contexts,"Extensions,Fall 2006,www.ou.edu/special/albertctr/extensions/fall2006/Loomis.pdf(2007-5-23)
64 参见Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,pp.255-258;Ward Sinclair,"USDA's Farm Bill Lobbying Hit," Washington Post,October 1,1985,p.A5.
65 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,p.181.
66 Ibid,pp.178-179.
67 W.Russell Neuman,"The Global Impact of New Technologies," in Doris Graber,et.al,eds.,The Politics of News,The News of Politics,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1998,p.238.
68[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:536-537;
[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:113-114.
69 Rex Nutting,"Bush Lobbying Effort Skirts Law," Market Watch,April 10,2005,http://www.marketwatch.com /News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5E61F470%2D3030%2D48F6%2DB741%2DAE9A15AF4903%7D&print=l&siteid=mktw(2007-12-21)
70 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:192.
71 同上书,第104页。
72[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林倾背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:188-194.
73 Major Garrett,"White House Buys Super Bowl Anti-Drug Spots," CNN News,Feb.1,2002,http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/02/01/sb.white.house.ads/index.html(2007-12-29)
74 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267;另见 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.13.
75 Karlyn Bowman,"Polling to Campaign and to Govern," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p 67.
76 Samuel J.Best & Benjamin Radcliff,eds.,Polling America:An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion,London:Greenwood Press,2005,pp.580-581.
77 Robert Eisinger and Jeremy Brown,"Polling as Means toward Presidential Autonomy:Emil Hurja,Hadley Cantril,and the Roosevelt Administration," International Journal of Public Opinion Research,1998,vol.10,no.3,p.237.
78 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Robert Y.Shapiro,“The Rise of Presidential Polling:the Nixon White House in Historical Perspective,” Public Opinion Research Quarterly,1995,no.59,p.173.
79 Samuel J.Best & Benjamin Radcliff,eds.,Polling America:An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion,p.581.
80 Richard S.Beal and Ronald H.Hinckley,“Presidential Decisionmaking and Opinion Polls,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,March 1984,p.72.
81 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,“Words vs.Deeds:President George W.Bush and Polling,” Brookings Institution:http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2003/summer_elections_tenpas.aspx(2008-01-03)
82 转引自Jeffrey E.Cohen,Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-Making,Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,1997,pp.12-13.
83 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.86.
84 George C.Edwards,“Campaigning is Not Governing:Bill Clinton's Rhetorical Presidency,” in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Legacy:First Appraisals,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House,1996,pp.33-47.
85 Karlyn Bowman,“Polling to Campaign and to Govern,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p 67.
86 George C.Edwards,“Frustration and Folly:Bill Clinton and the Public Presidency,” in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Presidency:First Appraisals,p.236.
87 Karlyn Bowman,“Polling to Campaign and to Govern,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p 67.
88 Diane J.Heith,“The White House Public Opinion Apparatus Meets the Anti-Polling President,”in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.77.
89 陈文鑫.塑造民意还是反映民意?——民意测验与美国的对外政策[J].美国研究.2003(4):77.
90 Matt Bai,“Rove's Way,” New York Times,October 20,2002,p.A12.
91 Diane J.Heith,“The White House Public Opinion Apparatus Meets the Anti-Polling President,” in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,p.84.
92 例如,Richard J.Ellis,ed.,Speaking to the People:The Rhetorical Presidency in Historical Perspective,Amherst:University of Massachusetts Press,1998;Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1987.
93 转引自[美]诺姆·乔姆斯基,戴维·巴萨米安.宣传与公共意识[M].信强译,上海:上海译文出版社,2006:261.
94 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:85.
95 同上书,第88页。
96 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,p.64.
97 George Stephanopoulos,All Too Human:A Political Education,Boston:Little Brown,1999,p.334.
98 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.106.
99 转引自陈文鑫.塑造民意还是反映民意?——民意测验与美国的对外政策[J].2003(4):73.
100 关于民意调查方法的详细介绍,参见Herbert Asher,Polling and the Public:What Every Citizen Should Know,5~(th) Edition,Washington,D.C.:CQ Press,2001,Chapter 4;Herbert F.Weisberg,et.al.,An Introduction to Survey Research,Polling,and Data Analysis,3~(rd) Edition,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1996;Earl Babbie,Survey Research Methods,2~(nd) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth Publishing Company,1998.
101 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,2003-2004 Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,pp.213-215.
102 A.H.Cantril,The Opinion Connection:Polling,Politics,and the Press,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1991,pp.134-139.
103 参见 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.43.
104 John R.Zaller,The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992,p.29.
105 Justin Lewis,Congstructing Public Opinion:How Political Elites Do What They Like and Why We Seem to Go along with It,New York:Columbia University Press,2001,p.11.
106 Ibid,p.168.
1 Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins,1981,p.3.
2 Ibid,p.4.
3 Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.516.
4 Bradley H.Patterson,Jr.,The White House Staff:inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2000,pp.ⅵ-ⅶ;Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,pp.431-432.
5 Matthew J.Dickinson,“Neustadt,New Institutionalism,and Presidential Decision Making:A Theory and Test,”Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2005,pp.259-288.
6 参见 Martha Joynt Kumar,“Source Material:The White House and the Press:New Organizations as a Presidential Resource and as a Source of Pressure,” Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2003,pp.681-682.关于整个白宫班子的结构,参见Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.519.
7 Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,p.408.
8 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,“The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,pp.111-112.
9 李庆四.美国总统的顾问领导科学[J].2002(22):54.
10 作者对卡特总统撰稿人之一James Fallows的访谈(2007年4月)。
11 John Anthony Maltese,Spin Control:The White House Office of Communications and the Management of Presidential News,2~(nd) Edition,Chapel Hill:University of North Carolina Press,1994,p.28.
12 Sidney Blumenthal,The Permanent Campaign,New York:Simon and Schuster,1982,p.7.
13[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:21-22.
14 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings,2000,pp.159-161.
15 转引自 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,"The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,pp.123-124.
16 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.23.
17 例如,[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:180.
18 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.74.
19 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,"The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.112.
20 Ibid,pp.121-122.
21 Anthony Corrado,"Giving,Spending,and 'Soft Money,'" Journal of Law and Policy,1997,vol.6,no.1,pp.51-52.
22 Elizabeth Kolbert,"New Arena for Campaign Ads:Health Care," New York Times,Oct.21,1993,http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE6D7163DF932A15753C1A965958260&sec=&spon=&p agewanted=2(2007-09-12)
23 Kay Lehman Schlozman and John T.Tierney,Organized Interests and American Democracy,New York:Harper & Row,1986,p.293.
24 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,p.181.
25[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:8.
26 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W.Bush,the Media,and the Truth,New York:Touchstone,2004,pp.71-73.
27 Dana Milbank,"With'04 in Mind,Bush Team Saw Economic,Political Peril," Washington Post,December 7,2002,A12.
28 Bob Davis,"Treasury Chief Struggles to Sell Tax Plan," Wall Street Journal,May 5,2003,A01.
29 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W Bush,the Media,and the Truth,p.136.
30 McDermott Newsletters:"President Bush Signs New Tax Cut into Law," http://www.mwe.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/publications.nldetail/object_id/alb70299-f207-4fce-b418-cc3e1778088f.cfm(2007-09-18)
31[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434;关于当代总统在政治产品生产中与政治对手之间的互动,参见[美]埃德蒙·莫里斯.里根传[M].李小平等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002.第30-36章:[美]乔治·布什.乔治·布什自传[M].北京:当代世界出版社,1989;[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004.第29-37章.
32 “SWOT分析法”是市场战略规划中的常用工具,用来对企业内外部各方面条件进行综合分析。“SWOT”分别代表企业优势(strength)、劣势(weakness)、机会(opportunity)和威胁(threats)。
33 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,pp.87-88.
34 该图的设计得到了布鲁斯·I·纽曼教授的帮助,特此致谢。
35 Diane J.Heith,"The Polls:Polling for a Defense:the White House Public Opinion Apparatus and the Clinton Impeachment," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2000,pp.783-789.
36 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Chapter 7.
37 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Melanie Burns,"The Second Face of the Public Presidency:Presidential Polling and the Shift from Policy to Personality Polling," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2004,pp.536-554.
38 例如,Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001;以及Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000.一部关于政治顾问在总统决策中作用的经典影片是凯文·柯斯特纳2000年主演的《惊爆13天(Thirteen Days)》。
39 梁文道.奥巴马的胜利是修辞学的胜利[N].南方周末,2008,3(5):E30.
40 Mark J.Rozell,"In Reagan's Shadow:Bush's Anti-rhetorical Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,Winter 1998,pp.127-138.
41 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.74-75;Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,Mahwah,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1998,pp.44-68.
42 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.129.
43 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.185-214.
44 Martha Joynt Kumar and Terry Sullivan,eds.,The White House World:Transitions,Organizations,and Office Operations,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2003,pp.ⅹ-ⅹⅲ.
45 比如,自1994年12月到1996年大选前,白宫每周都要召集包括主要政治顾问、白宫班子主管、传播办公室主任、政治事务办公室主任、新闻秘书、竞选总管及商务部长等人在内的20余位成员,讨论竞选策略与政府政策之间互相促进事宜。见[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:29-30.
46 例如,袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):62-82;
孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:435-439.
47 钱皓.布鲁金斯学会与克林顿政府对华接触政策[J].国际观察.2006(3):41-47.
48 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].2001:435.
49 周敦仁.美国国内政治和PNTR投票[J].国际观察.2000(4):1-2.
50 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].2001:436.
51 同上。
52 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):73-74.
53 凤凰卫视:“艰辛历程:中国的WTO与PNTR”,2000年5月25日:http://news.silversand.net/file/world/2000/05/25093043.html(2007-09-19)
54 Clinton Library File,OA08688,Box 3.由于开放不久的克林顿图书馆仅仅解密了一部分档案,对于涉及国外政策和白宫团队运作的内容不单很少,而且混杂在各类文件之中,因此,档案查询工作异常困难。感谢我的同学Ju Wong和Jennifer Chen,她们利用工作机会,多次去位于阿肯色州小石城的克林顿图书馆为我查询资料。本文来自克林顿图书馆的材料均为她们所提供。
55 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):74-75.
56[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:939.
57 Clinton Library File,OA40151,Box 56.
58 同上。
59 详见美国科学家联盟网:http://www.fas.org/news/china/2000/000110-prc-usial.htm(2007-08-19)
60 详见中国世贸网:http://www.chinawto.com/wto/index-e.asp?sel=info&info=report2000(2007-08-23)
61 同上。
62 香港贸易发展局网:http://marketinfo.tdctrade.com/content.aspx?data=china_content_en&contentid =173331&src=CN_BuNeTrSt&w_sid=194&w_pid=630&w_nid=9929&w_cid=173331&w_idt=1900-01-01&w oid=167&w_jid=(2007-08-30)
63 Clinton Library File,OA40844,Box 79.
64 美国政府跟踪网:http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2000-228(2007-09-23)
65 企业圆桌会议网:http://www.businessroundtable.org/newsroom/document.aspx?qs=55D6BF807822B0F18D D449167F75A70478252(2007-08-29)
66 据不完全统计,2000年4月初至5月末,有关对华PNTR的话题,白宫各部门间至少交换了870份(次)备忘录,涵盖民意测验结果、国会议员的态度、电视广告的效果等各项内容。Clmton Library File,OA04591-04592,Box 207-209.
67 议案详情参见美国国会网站:http://www.thomas.gov(2007-07-17)
1 Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,p.265.
2 转引自[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:325.
3 Bill Clinton and Al Gore,Putting People First:How We Can All Change America,New York:Times Books,1992,pp.107-111;[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:532.
4 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.53-54.
5 关于医疗保健改革工作团队的人员组成,见Robert Peal“Ending Its Secrecy,White House Lists Health-care Panel," New York Times,March 13,1993.http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE7DA1131F934A15750C0A965958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1(2007-09-09)
6[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:128-129.
7 Burdett A.Loomis,"The Never Ending Story:Campaigns without Elections," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.163.
8 James Risen,"Health Reform Sprouts Intense Grassroots Lobbying outside the Beltway," Los Angeles Times,August 1,1994,A5.
9 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.59-60.
10 陈宝森.美国两种经济哲学的新较量--兼论克林顿第一任期内的两党预算战[A].见:牛车.克林顿治下的美国[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998:295-312.
11 详见蒋劲松.论美国1995年预算大战[J].英国研究.1996(4):47-75.
12[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,.南京:译林出版社,2004:734-735.
13 U.S.Congress:Congressional Quarterly,Dec.9,1995,vol.53,no.48,p.3762.
14[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉.政治学研究方法指南[M].陈琪译,北京:北京大学出版社,2006:10-11.
15 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.129.
16 转引自Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.104.
17 Steffen W.Schmidt,et.al.,American Government and Politics Today,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.222.
18[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:530-545.
19 同上书,第543页,第545-547页。
20[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:550.
21 同上书,第132页。
22 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,p.69.
23[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:215.
24 James Risen,"Health Reform Sprouts Intense Grassroots Lobbying outside the Beltway," Los Angeles Times,August 1,1994,A5.
25[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:202.
26 同上书,第203-204页。
27 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.129.
28[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:202.
29 同上书,第213-215页。
30 同上书,第221页。
31 同上书,第193-194页。
32 Louis Harris and Associates Poll,18-22 January 1996,转引自Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.289.
33 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.201.
34[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:279-286.
35[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].李晓岗等译,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2004:97.
36[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:193.
37 同上。
38[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:203.
39 John C.Tedesco,"Clinton's Public Relations Nightmares Begin," in Robert E.Denton,Jr.and Rachel L.Holloway,eds.,Images,Scandal and Communication Strategies of the Clinton Presidency,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.73-79.
40 Ibid,p.81.
41[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:177-178.
42 同上书,第178页。
43 同上书,第185页。
44 同上书,第232页。
45 同上书,第188页。
46[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:541-542.
47[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].2004:115.
48 同上书,第114-115页。
49 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.56.
50[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:208-209.
51[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:754-755.
52 同上书,第755页。
53[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:161.
54 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.57.
55[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].2004:114.
56[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:197,214-215.
57 同上书,第201-202页。
58[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:224-225.
59 同上书,第127页。
60 蒋劲松.论美国1995年预算大战[J].美国研究.1996(4):70.
61 Barbara Sinclair,"The President as Legislative Leader," in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Legacy,London:Chatham House,2000,p.88.
62 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,pp.96-97.
63 Theda Skocpol,Boomerrang:Clinton's Health Security Effort and the Turn against Government in U.S.Politics,New York:W.W.Norton,1996,pp.53-57.
64 Memo from Judy Feder to Bruce Fried,Marchl2,1992,转引自 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.83.
65 Ibid.
66 Memo to the President and First Lady from Magaziner,October 1,1993.Ibid,p.84.
67 David W.Moore,The Superpollsters:How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America,New York:Four Walls Eight Windows,1995,pp.388-389;George C.Edwards and Stephen J.Wayne,Presidential Leadership:Politics and Policy Making,5~(th) ed.,New York:Wadsworth,1999,p.124.
68[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:278.
69[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:188.
70[美]比尔.克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:699-700.
71 Clinton Library File,OA21200,Box 101.
72[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:718.
73 Clinton Library File,OA21200,Box 101.
74[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:215.
75 同上书,第188-190页。
76 同上书,第191,234-238页。
77 CNN 网站:http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0204/25/ip.00.html(2007-12-01)
78[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:207-210.
79[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:141-142.
80 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Police,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.69.
81[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:192.
1 转引自[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:314.
2 Samuel Huntington,American Politics:The Promise of Disharmony,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1981,p.75.
3 Arthur M.Schlesinger,Jr.,The Imperial Presidency,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1973.
4 James L.Sundquist,The Decline and Resurgence of Congress,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution,1981,p.256;薛涌.美国总统帝王化:反思布什这四年[J].南方人物周刊.2004(11.3):32.
5 Byron W.Daynes and Glen Sussman,The American Presidency and the Social Agenda,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2001,pp.4-5.
6[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:280.
7 Diana Owen,Media Messages in American Presidential Elections,New York:Greenwood,1991,p.94.
8 Charlie Savage,"Bush Could Bypass New Torture Ban:Waiver Right Reserved," Boston Globe,January 4,2006,A1,http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2006/01/04/bush_could_bypass_new_torture_ban/(2008-01-04)
9 Donald R.Wolfensberger,"The Return of the Imperial Presidency?" Wilson Quarterly,vol.26,no.2,Spring 2002,p.36.
10[美]库尔茨.操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].张金秀,周荣国译,北京:新华出版社,2000:12.
11[美]斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克.总统政治--从约翰.亚当斯到比尔.克林顿的领导艺术[M].黄云等译,北京:新华出版社,2003:60-62.
12 同上书,第60页。
13 比如,Michael A.Genovese,The Presidential Dilemma:Leadership in the American System,New York:HarperCollins,1995;Edwards,George C.,Ⅲ,and Stephen J.Wayne,Presidential Leadership:Politics and Policy Making,5~(th) ed.,New York:Wadsworth,1999,等等。
14 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.5-6.
15 Robert Reich,Locked in the Cabinet,New York:Alfred A.Knopf,1997,pp.261-262.
16 Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985,p.11.
17 李庆余,周桂银等.美国现代化道路[M].北京:人民出版社,1994:266.
18 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,New York:Harper and Row,1953,p.333.
19 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly,1997,pp.12-15.
20 同上书,第15页。
21[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
22 秦晖.“降低交易费用”的独特方式:中国奇迹1992-2001[N].南方周末.2008,2(21):D23.
23[美]布鲁斯·埃-纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:1.
24 Herbert Asher,Polling and the Public:What Every Citizen Should Know,5~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2001,p.186.
25 Benjamin Ginsberg,The Captive Public:How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power,New York:Basic Books,1986,p.85.
26 同上。
27[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].张绍伦等译,石家庄:河北人民出版社,1997:171.
28 转引自 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.181.
29 Thomas E.Cronin and Michael A.Genovese,The Paradoxes of the American Presidency,New York:Oxford University Press.1998,p.4.
30[美]道格拉斯·拉米斯.激进的民主[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:8.
31 转引自胡东,李雪洋.关于民意的民主性思考[J].政治学研究.2006(2):49.
32 同上。
33[美]兰斯·班尼特.政治的幻象[M].杨晓红、王家全译,北京:当代中国出版社,2005:158.
34[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].1997:221.
35 Lawrence C.Dodd,"The New American Politics:Reflections on the Early 1990s," in Jones,Bryan D.,ed.,The New American Politics:Reflections on Political Change and the Clinton Administration,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1995,p.270.
36 转引自Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,pp.22-23.
37 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267-279:另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.256-259.
38 《环球时报》,2005年7月20日,第20版;另见[美]库尔茨.操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].2000:72.
39 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,"IN:AEI Press,2000,pp.35-36.
4o Wally Clinton,"Endless Campaign," quoted from James A.Thurber,"Is the Permanent Campaign Well and Alive after 9/11 ?" American University CCPS Website:http://spa.american.edu/ccps/getpdf.php?table=publications&ID=47(2007-12-10)
41 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.17.
42 James A.Thurber,"Is the Permanent Campaign Well and Alive after 9/11 ?" American University CCPS Website:http://spa.american.edu/ccps/getpdf.php?table=publications&ID=47(2007-02-10)
43 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.211.
44 Corey Cook,"The Permanence of the 'Permanent Campaign':George W.Bush's Public Presidency,"Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,p.762.
45 Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.231-233.
46[美]罗伯特·Wˉ麦克切斯尼.富媒体,穷民主[M].谢岳译,北京:新华出版社,2004:389.
47 Bennett,W.Lance,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,pp.186-192.
48 W.Lance Bennett and Robert M.Entman,eds.,Mediated Politics:Communication in the Future of Democracy,Cambridge:University of Cambridge Press,2001,pp.468-470.
49 M.J.C.Vile,Politics in the USA,5~(th) ed.,New York:Routledge,1999,pp.159-172;J.Harry Wray,"Money and Politics," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.741-757.
50 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.165-172;Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.135.
51[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].1997:186.
52 同上。译文经修改。
1.[美]虽里·奥尔德里奇著,赵文书,肖锁章译,《白宫内姆--联邦探员眼中的克林顿政府》,南京:江苏人民出版社,1998年。
2.[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈.伯恩斯著,《领袖》,常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007年。
3.[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒著,张绍伦等译,《美国民主的讽刺》,石家庄:河北人民出版社,1997年。
4.[美]威廉·邓恩著,谢明等译,《公共政策分析导论》,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002年。
5.[美]D.B.杜鲁门著,陈尧译,《政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论》,天津:天津人民出版社,2005年。
6.[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著,陈琪译,《政治学研究方法指南》,北京:北京大学出版社,2006年。
7.[美]埃里克·方纳著,王希译,《美国自由的故事》,北京:商务印书馆,2002年。
8.[加]迈克尔·豪利特,M·拉米什著,庞诗等译,《公共政策研究:政策循环与政策子系统》,北京:三联书店,2006年。
9.[美]汉密尔顿,杰伊,麦迪逊著,程逢如等译,《联邦党人文集》,北京:商务印书馆,2006年。
10.詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉著,张竹敏,胡晨寰译,《赢家兵法》,上海社会科学院出版社,2005年。
11.[美]菲利普·科特勒著,梅清豪译,《营销管理(第11版)》,上海:上海人民出版社,2003年。
12.[美]菲利普·科特勒著,郭永译,《科特勒说》,北京:当代中国出版社,2005年。
13.[美]比尔·克林顿著,李公昭等译,《我的生活:克林顿回忆录》,南京:译林出版社,2004年。
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9.钱皓:“布鲁金斯学会与克林顿政府对华接触政策”,载《国际观察》,2006年第3期,第41-47页。
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13.薛涌:“美国总统帝王化:反思布什这四年”,载《南方人物周刊》,2004年11月3日,第28-32页。
14.袁征:“总统游说与国会决策”,载《美国研究》,2001年第3期,第66-67页。
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18. Heith, Diane J., "The Polls: Polling for a Defense: the White House Public Opinion Apparatus and the Clinton Impeachment," Presidential Studies Quarterly, December 2000, pp. 783-789.
19. Jacobs Lawrence R., and Melanie Burns, "The Second Face of the Public Presidency: Presidential Polling and the Shift from Policy to Personality Polling," Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2004, pp. 536-554.
20. Jacobs Lawrence R., and Robert Y. Shapiro, "The Rise of Presidential Polling: the Nixon White House in Historical Perspective," Public Opinion Research Quarterly, 1995, no. 59, p. 173.
21. Kelley, Christopher S., "Contextualizing the Signing Statement," Presidential Studies Quarterly, vol. 37, no. 4, December 2007, pp. 738-755.
22. Kumar, Martha Joynt, "Source Material: The White House and the Press: New Organizations as a Presidential Resource and as a Source of Pressure," Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2003, pp. 669-683.
23. Lim, Elvin T., "Five Trends in Presidential Rhetoric: An Analysis of Rhetoric from George Washington to Bill Clinton," Presidential Studies Quarterly, June 2002, pp. 328-348.
24. Jones, Charles O., "Knowing What We Want to Know about the Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly, December 2002, pp. 710-720.
25. Lock, Andrew, and Phil Harris, "Political Marketing—Vive la Difference!", European Journal of Marketing, 1996, Vol. 30, No. 10, pp. 21-31.
26. Milbank, Dana, "With '04 in Mind, Bush Team Saw Economic, Political Peril," Washington Post, December 7, 2002, A12.
27. Mitchell, Alison, "Clinton Seems to Keep Running Though the Race Is Run and Won," New York Times, February 12,1997, A12.
28. Powell, Richard J., "'Going Public' Revisited: Presidential Speechmaking and the Bargaining Setting in Congress," Congress & The Presidency, Fall 1999, pp. 153-170.
29. Risen, James, "Health Reform Sprouts Intense Grassroots Lobbying outside the Beltway," Los Angeles Times, August 1,1994, A5.
30. Rozell, Mark J., "In Reagan's Shadow: Bush's Anti-rhetorical Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly, Winter 1998, pp. 127-138.
31. Scammell, Margaret, "Political Marketing: Lessons from Political Science," Political Studies, 1999, Vol. 47, pp. 718-739.
32. Sellers, Patrick J., "Manipulating the Message in the U.S. Congress," The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 22-31.
33. Sinclair, Ward, "USDA's Farm Bill Lobbying Hit," Washington Post, October 1, 1985, A5.
34. Wolfensberger, Donald R., "The Return of the Imperial Presidency?" Wilson Quarterly, vol. 26, no. 2, Spring 2002, p. 36.
2[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程——政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
3[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:142.
4Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1960,pp.1-2.
5[美]斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克.总统政治——从约翰·亚当斯到比尔·克林顿的领导艺术[M].黄云等译,北京:新华出版社,2003:60;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,The Public Presidency:The Pursuit of Popular Support,New York:St.Martin's Press,1983,pp.1-6;Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985;Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997.
6 Nicholas J.O'Shaughnessy and Stephan C.M.Henneberg,eds.,The Idea of Political Marketing,London:Praeger Publishers,2002,pp.ⅹⅲ,99-103;Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a Comparative Perspective,Manchester:Manchester University Press,2005,pp.6-7;[美]布鲁斯·埃纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:1;[美]菲利普·科特勒.营销管理(第11版)[M].梅清豪译,上海:上海人民出版社,2003:23.
7 Charles O.Jones,"Knowing What We Want to Know about the Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,pp.710-720.
8 Stanley Kelley,Professional Public Relations and Political Power,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins Press,1956,p.53.
9 Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,p.ⅹⅲ;Philippe J.Maarek,Political Marketing and Communication,London:John Libbey & Co.,1995,p.28.
10 孙鸿,认识政治营销[J].中国公关与发展.2007(10):55-57.
11 赵可金,“导读”,见[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:1-8.
12 Andrew Lock and Phil Harris,"Political Marketing-Vive la Difference!",European Journal of Marketing,1996,Vol.30,No.10,pp.21-31.
13 Nicholas O'Shaughnessy,The Phenomenon of Political Marketing,Basingstoke:Macmillan,1990,p.17.
14 王建.“新闻执政”与“政治营销”[J].徐州师范大学学报(哲学社科版).2007,3:33.
15 郎劲松,侯月娟.现代政治传播与新闻发布制度[J].现代传播.2004,3:34.
16 Patrick Butler and Neil Collins,"A Conceptual Framework for Political Marketing," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,p.57.
17[美]菲利普·科特勒.营销管理(第11版)[M].梅清豪译,上海:上海人民出版社,2003:645-649.
18 Margaret Scammell,"Political Marketing:Lessons from Political Science," Political Studies,1999,Vol.47,pp.718-739.
19 大批关于公共政策过程研究的经典著作已被引入中国。其中包括:[美]卡尔·帕顿,大卫·沙维奇.政策分析和规划的初步方法[M].孙兰芝等译,北京:华夏出版社,2002:
[美]威廉·邓恩.公共政策分析导论[M].谢明等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002,等等。中国学界对西方公共政策理论最为全面的分析,见毛寿龙.西方公共政策的理论发展之路及其对本土化研究的启示[J].中国经济体制改革研究会公共政策研究网:http://www.crcpp.org/cpipphtrnl/maoshoulong/2006-3/28/200603281216_3.htm (2007-02-20)
20 William D.Perreault,Jr.and E.Jerome McCarthy,Basic Marketing:a Global-ManagerialApproach,15~(th)Edition,Boston:McGraw-Hill,2005,pp.38-43.
21[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:8.
22[美]菲利普·科特勒.科特勒说[M].郭永译,北京:当代中国出版社,2005:92.
23 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:264.
24 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001.
25 许多人把“政治公关(political public relations)”与政治咨询、游说,甚至与政治领导拉关系等同起来。实际上,政治公关的首要目标是广人民众,而非某个特定机构或个人。政治游说应归于政治艺术的范畴。
26 唐雁凌,姜国刚.公共关系学[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2007:4;
另见赵宏中.公共关系学(第三版)[M].武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2005:4.
27 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007;
另见[美]库尔茨.张金秀,周荣国译,操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].北京:新华出版社,2000.
28 所谓“权威讲坛(the bully pulpit,有人译作‘天字第一号讲坛')”,尤指总统利用自己职位的特殊性向公众或特定听众发表讲话并说服后者的形式。
29 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.2 & p.104.
30 Ibid,pp.106-136.
31 首次系统分析政治选战中政治营销战略运用的是盖瑞·毛瑟的《政治行销》一书(Gary A.Mauser.Political Marketing:An Approach to Campaign Strategy,New York:Praeger,1983)。之后,多位学者对政治选举中的政治营销应用进行了更加深入的研究。Darren G Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a comparative perspective;Bruce I.Newman,The Marketing of the President:Political Marketing as Campaign Strategy,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1994,等等。
32 Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a comparative perspective,p.1.
33 Bruce I.Newman and Richard M.Perloff,"Political Marketing:Theory,Research,and Applications," in Lynda Lee Kaid,ed.,Handbook of Political Communication Research,London:Lawrence Erlbaum,2004,p.2;另见[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:1.
34 Sidney Blumenthal,The Permanent Campaign,New York:Simon and Schuster,1982.p.7.
35 David R.Mayhew,Congress:The Electoral Connection,New Haven:Yale University Press,1974;Arthur Maass,Congress and the Common Good,New York:Basic Books,1984.
36 Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985;Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly,1997;Richard Rrody,Assessing the President:The Media,Elite Opinion and Public Support,Palo Alto,CA:Stanford University Press,1987.
37 Dan Nimmo,"The Permanent Campaign:Marketing as a Governing Tool," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,pp.73-85.
38 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today 2003-2004 Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.408;Patrick J.Sellers,"Manipulating the Message in the U.S.Congress," The Harvard International Journal of Press/Politics,vol.5,no.1,pp.22-31.
39 Elmer E.Cornwell,Jr.,Presidential Leadership of Public Opinion,Bloomington,IN:Indiana University Press,1965;Paul Brace and Barbara Hinckley,Follow the Leader:Opinion Polls and Modern Presidents,New York:Basic Books,1992.
40 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999.
41 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.19-28.
42[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997.另见他的又一著作:Dick Morris,Behind the Oval Office:Getting Reelected Against All Odds,Los Angeles:Renaissance Books,1999,以及Dick Morris,Power Plays:Win or Lose-How History's Great Political Leaders Play the Game,New York:HarperCollins Publishers,2002,pp.110-126.
43 例如,Stephan Hess and James P.Pfiffner,Organizing the Presidency,3~(rd) ed.,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,2002,Chapter 10,pp.146-163;Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003;Jonathan Knuckey and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,"American Political Marketing:George W.Bush and the Republican Party," in Darren G.Lilleker and Jennifer Lees-Marshment,eds.,Political Marketing:a Comparative Perspective,pp.39-57;Joseph A.Pika and John Anthony Maltese,The Politics of the Presidency,6~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2006,chapter 3,pp.78-127;Colin Campbell and Bert Rockman,eds.,The George W.Bush Presidency,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2004.
44 Jeffrey E.Cohen and John A.Hamman,"The Polls:Can Presidential Rhetoric Affect the Public's Economic Perceptions?" Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2003,pp.408-422;Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.511.
45 Stephan Hess and James P.Pfiffner,Organizing the Presidency,p.163.
46[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯著,领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:324.原书出版于1978年。
47 同上书,第306页。
48 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,p.ⅹⅵ.
49 George C.Edwards,At the Margins:Presidential Leadership of Congress,New Haven,CT:Yale University Press,1989;Jon Bond and Richard Fleisher,The President in the Legislative Arena,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1990;Mark Peterson,Legislating Together:The White House and Capitol Hill from Eisenhower to Reagan,Cambridge,MA:Harvard University Press,1990;Charles O.Jones,The Presidency in a Separated System,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1994,p.112,146.
50 Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power and the Modern Presidents:The Politics of Leadership from Roosevelt to Reagan,Rev.ed.,New York:Free Press,1990.p.73;Brandice Canes-Wrone and Scott de Marchi,"Presidential Approval and Legislative Success," Journal of Politics,2002,64(2),pp.491-509;Kenneth Collier and Terry Sullivan,"New Evidence Undercutting the Linkage of Approval with Presidential Support and Influence," Journal of Politics,57(1),pp.197-209.
51 Gary Andres,Patrick Griffin and James Thurber,"The Contemporary Presidency:Managing White House-Congressional Relations:Observations from inside the Process," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2000,pp.553-563.
52 Andrew W.Barrett,"Going Public as a Legislative Weapon:Measuring Presidential Appeals Regarding Specific Legislation," Presidential Studies Quarterly,March 2005,pp.1-10;
53 Brendan J.Doherty,"The Politics of the Permanent Campaign:Presidential Travel and the Electoral College,1977-2004," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2007,pp.749-773.
54 Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha,The President's Speeches:Beyond Going Public,Boulder,CO,:Lynne Rienner Press,2006,2006,p.28;另见Richard J.Powell,"'Going Public' Revisited:Presidential Speechmaking and the Bargaining Setting in Congress," Congress & The Presidency,Fall 1999,pp.153-170;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,On Deaf Ears:The Limits of the Bully Pulpit,New Haven:Yale University Press,2003.
55 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004.p.11.
56 John F.Harris,"A Clouded Mirror:Bill Clinton,Polls and the Politics of Survival," in Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,pp.87-105.
57 Bruce Miroff,"Courting the Public:Bill Clinton's Postmodern Education," in Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,p.106.
58 Ibid,pp.120-123.
59 比如,Morris P.Fiorina,Paul E.Peterson and D.Stephan Voss,America's New Democracy,2~(nd) ed.,pp.141-143; Lawrence R.Jacobs,"The Presidency and the Press:The Paradox of the White House Communication War," in Michael Nelson,ed.,The Presidency and the Political System,7~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,pp.305-328.
60 比如,Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.1;Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,p.105;Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.219-233.
61 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.1-2;Joseph A.Pika and John Anthony Maltese,The Politics of the Presidency,p.91;Paul Brace and Barbara Hinckley,Follow the Leader:Opinion Polls and Modern Presidents,New York:Basic Books,1992;Craig A.Rimmerman,Presidency by Plebiscite:The Reagan-Bush Era in Institutional Perspective,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1993.
62 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership;Leroy G.Dorsey,ed.,The Presidency and Rhetorical Leadership,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2002,pp.3-10.
63 Morris P.Fiorina,Paul E.Peterson and D.Stephan Voss,America's New Democracy,2~(nd) ed.,New York:Pearson Education,Inc.,2004,p.13;Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.34-35;Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000.
64 的确有为数不多的人进行了此类研究。比如,黑斯的研究很大程度上基于尼克松、福特、卡特、里根及布什总统的解密文档。见Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004.
65 这个现象极为普遍。一个明显的证据是,在绝大多数有关白宫公关及诉诸民众策略的著作中,出现最多的例子是里根、卡特、甚至尼克松之前的总统;对克林顿和小布什白宫政治营销活动的研究则相当缺乏。
66[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:3-5.
67 参见许云霄.公共选择理论[M].第2-4章:Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Pofitical Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,pp.3-18.
1 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,New York:Harper and Row,1953,p.333.
2 W.Lance Bennett,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,p.18.
3 转引自 George C.Edwards Ⅲ,The Public Presidency:The Pursuit of Popular Support,New York:St.Martin's Press,1983,p.1.
4 Richard E.Neustadt,Presidential Power,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1980,pp.1-2.
5[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
6 John E.Mueller,War,Presidents and Public Opinion,New York:John Wiley and Sons,1973,pp.69-74.
7 Corey Cook,"The Permanence of the 'Permanent Campaign':George W.Bush's Public Presidency,"Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,p.753.
8 Alison Mitchell,"Clinton Seems to Keep Running Though the Race Is Run and Won," New York Times,February 12,1997,A12.
9 Charles O.Jones,The Presidency in a Separated System,Washington,D.C.:The Brookings Institution,1994,p.11.
10 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003.p.404.
11 转引自胡晓进,任东来.美国总统与国会的对外事务权之争[A].见:孙哲.美国国会研究Ⅱ[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2003:7-8.译文经笔者修改。
12 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:54-61.
13 Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,pp.399-403.
14 M.J.C.Vile,Politics in the USA,5~(th) Edition,New York:Routledge,1999,Chapter 7.
15 马清槐.潘恩选集[M].北京:商务印书馆,1981:245-246;
[美]汉密尔顿,杰伊,麦迪逊.联邦党人文集[M].程逢如等译,北京:商务印书馆,2006.第47-51篇。
16 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:106.
17 Jon R.Bond and Richard Fleisher,The President in the Legislative Arena,Chicago:University of Chicag 1990,p.1.
18 George C.Edwards,Ⅲ,"Building Coalitions," Presidential Studies Quarterly,March 2000,p.63.
19 U.S.Congress:Congressional Quarterly Report,December 31,1994,pp.3657-3658.
20 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,pp.335-336.
21 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):66-67.
22[英]切斯特菲尔德.一生的忠告:一位外交家爸爸给孩子的信[M].刘树林,崔黎丽译,北京:北京海潮出版社,2004.
23[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:278-280.
24 转引自 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,pp.19-20.
25[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:27.
26[美]R.肯尼迪.十三天:古巴导弹危机回忆录[M].上海:上海人民出版社,1977.
27 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,6~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,pp.366-7.
28 Douglass Carter,Power in Washington,New York:Vintage,1964,p.75.
29[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:702-703.
30 加里·奥尔德里奇.白宫内姆--联邦探员眼中的克林顿政府[M].南京:江苏人民出版社,1998.
31 Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.510.
32 “签署声明”是总统在签署一项法案时同时发表的一份声明,用来表示总统对该法案的态度或者总统将要求行政部门如何执行该项法案。虽然签署声明不具有法律效力,但却对行政部门的执行起到指导、甚至命令的作用。因此,这也是总统的“引申权力”之一。小布什是美国历史上发表最多签署声明的总统。见 Christopher S.Kelley,"Contextualizing the Signing Statement," Presidential Studies Quarterly,vol.37,no.4,December 2007,pp.738-755.
33 李道揆.美国政府和美国政治[M].北京:商务印书馆,1999:94-97.
34 Dan Nimmo,"The Permanent Campaign:Marketing as a Governing Tool," in Brace I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.73-85.
35 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.3.
36[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].2005:579.
37 Jeffrey Birnbaum,The Lobbyists,New York:Times Books,1993,p.4.
38 Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.196.
39[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].2005:232.
40 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,p.248.
41 Federal Election Commission:http://www.fec.gov/press/press2005/20050412pac/PACFinal2004.html (2007-01-8)
42 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.127.
43 Carroll J.Glynn,et.al.,Public Opinion,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.362-363.
44 Morris P.Fiorina,"Political Change in the States:Another Example of Unintended Consequences?" in Bryan D.Jones,ed.,The New American Politics:Reflections on Political Change and the Clinton Administration,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1995,pp.123-124.
45 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.47;另见 David A.Crockett,"The President as Opposition Leader," Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2000,p.252.
46 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,p.260.
47[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:336-339;另见Warren E.Miller and J.Merrill Shanks,The New American Voter,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1996.
48 David A.Crockett."The President as Opposition Leader"p.252.其他五位榜上有名的总统分别是:哈里森-泰勒(1841-43)、克里夫兰(1893-95)、威尔逊(1913-19)以及艾森豪威尔(1953-54)。
49 Edward S.Greenberg and Benjamin I.Page,The Struggle for Democracy,p.257.
50 Richard Fleisher and Jon R.Bond,"Partisanship and the President's Quest for Votes on the Floor of Congress,"in Jon R.Bond and Richard Fleisher,eds.,Polarized Politics:Congress and the President in a Partisan Era,Washington,D.C.:CQ Press,2000.
51 Jennifer Lees-Marshment,The Political Marketing Revolution:Transforming the Government of the UK,Manchester:Manchester University Press,2004,pp.4-5.
52 Fran J.Sorauf and Paul Allen Beck,Party Politics in America,6~(th) Edition,Glenview,IL:Scott,Foresman and Company,1988,p.98.
53 盖洛普民调报告 http://www.gallup.com/poll/26308/Democratic-Edge-Partisanship-2006-Evident-National -State-Levels.aspx(2007-04-23)
54 Everett Carll Ladd,Jr.and Charles D.Hadley,Transformations of the American Party System:Political Coalitions from the New Deal to the 1970s,2~(nd) Edition,New York:Norton,1978,p.329.
55 Martin P.Wattenberg,The Decline of American Parties,1952-1980,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1984,p.ⅹⅴ.
56 Richard Rose,The Postmodern Presidency:The White House Meets the World,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House Publishers,1988,pp.121-122.
57 Austin Ranney,"The Political Parties:Reform and Decline," in Anthony Kind,ed.,The New American Political System,Washington,D.C.:American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research,1979,p.245.
58 Norman C.Thomas,Joseph A.Pika and Richard Watson,The Politics of the Presidency,2~(nd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.77.
59[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:24-26.
60 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.19.
61 世界知识网:http://www.factmonster.com/ipka/A0878225.html(2007-02-09)
62[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:59.
63 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.11.
64 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.127.
65 Gregory N.Flemming,"Presidential Coattails in Open-seat Elections," Legislative Studies Quarterly,May 1995,pp.197-212.
66 George C.Edwards,Ⅲ and Stephen Wayne,Presidential Leadership,5~(th) Edition,New York:St.Martin's,1999.
67 张立平.金钱与政治腐败--试论美国竞选经费改革[J].国际论坛.2001(10):58-65.
68 联邦竞选委员会:http://www.fec.gov/pages/brochures/fecfeca.shtml#Campaign_Finance_Law(2007-10-28)
69 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," pp.26-27.
70 Lori Cox Han,"The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities," in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.164.
71 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," p.21.
72 参见 John J.Dulio,Jr.,"Inside the Bush Presidency:Reflections of an Academic Interloper," in Allen J.Cigler and Burdett A.Loomis,eds.,American Politics:Classic and Contemporary Readings,6th Edition,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2005,Chapter 11.4.
73[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:33-34.
74 Robert M.Entman,Democracy without Citizens:Media and the Decay of American Politics,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1989,pp.17-23.
75 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," pp.22-23.
76 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,pp.119-123.
77 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.3.
78 Richard Morris,Behind the Oval Office:Getting Reelected Against All Odds,Los Angeles:Renaissance,1999,p.143.
79 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:279-280.
80 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.30.
81 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Robert Y.Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Communication and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,pp.48-49.
82 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267-279;另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.256-259.
83 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.1.
84[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].2007:22-24.
85 The Center for Public Integrity:http://www.publicintegrity.org/consultants/report.aspx?aid=533(2007-06-23)
86[美]苏珊·特伦托.超级说客[M].新新闻编译小组译,台北:新新闻文化事业股份有限公司,1995:320-323.
87 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.6-9.
88 The Center for Public Integrity:http://www.publicintegrity.org/consultants/report.aspx?aid=533(2007-06-23);另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,p.255.
89 《环球时报》,2005年7月20日,第20版;另见Martha Joynt Kumar and Terry Sullivan,eds.,The White House World:Transitions,Organizations,and Office Operations,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2003,p.363,389.
90 Matthew Eshbaugh-Soha,The President's Speeches:Beyond Going Public,Boulder,CO:Lynne Rienner Press,2006,p.28;Richard J.Powell,"' Going Public' Revisited:Presidential Speechmaking and the Bargaining Setting in Congress," Congress & The Presidency,Fall 1999,pp.153-170;George C.Edwards Ⅲ,On Deaf Ears:The Limits of the Bully Pulpit,New Haven:Yale University Press,2003.
91 Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Political Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes,"in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.3-18.
92[美]安东尼·唐斯.民主的经济理论[M].姚洋等译,上海:上海世纪出版集团,2005.第二章。
93 转引自[加]迈克尔·豪利特,M·拉米什.公共政策研究:政策循环与政策子系统[M].庞诗等译,北京:三联书店,2006:33-34.
94 例如,许云霄.公共选择理论[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2006:174-179.
95[美]迈克尔·罗斯金等.政治科学(第6版)[M].北京:华夏出版社,2001:288-292.
[美]希尔斯曼.美国是如何治理的[M].曹大鹏译,北京:商务印书馆,1986:140;
[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:240-242.
96 关于议员更重视自己的“代理人”职责还足“委托人”职责,学界一直有不同的看法。大多数学者倾向于前者。见[美]David R.Mayhew.事关选举:美国国会的政治解读[M].蒋昌建译,上海:复旦大学出版社,2001.孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:366-367.
97 参见 Philip Kotler and Neil Kotler,"Political Marketing:Generating Effective Candidates,Campaigns and Causes," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketine,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications.1999,p.5;此外,《营销总统》的作者纽曼教授也对本图的制定提出了宝贵意见,在此表示感谢。
98 Gary Andres,Patrick Griffin and James Thurber,"The Contemporary Presidency:Managing White House-Congressional Relations:Observations from inside the Process," Presidential Studies Quarterly, September 2000.p.555.
99[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].2007:406-407.
100 Alison Theaker,The Public Relations Handbook,2~(nd) Edition,Oxfordshire:Routledge,2004,p.8.
101 参见 Anthony Corrado,"Running Backward:the Congressional Money Chase," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.78.
102 Ibid,p.104.
103 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W.Bush,the Media,and the Truth,New York:Touchstone,2004,Chapter 8.
1 James Deakin,Straight Stuff,New York:William Morrow,1984,p.44.
2 Roderick P.Hart,The Sound of Leadership:Presidential Communication in the Modern Age,Chicago:The University of Chicago Press,1987,p.6.
3[法]托克维尔.论美国的民主[M].张晓明译,北京:北京出版社,2007;另见John Markoff.Waves of Democracy,Thousand Oaks,CA:Pine Forge Press,1996,p.3.
4 Hugh Heclo,“Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.17.
5 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,Mahwah,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1998,p.17.
6 Lewis W.Wolfson,The Untapped Power of the Press:Explaining Government to the People,New York:Praeger,1985,p.13.
7 李龙.试论美国1798年《惩治煽动叛乱法案》[J].株洲师范高等专科学校学报.2004(06).
8 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.19.
9 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,pp.19-20.
10 Dom Bonafede,“Presidents and the News Media,” in Harold F.Bass,Jr.,et.al.,eds.,The Presidents and the Public,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1990,p.48.
11 John William Ward,Andrew Jackson:Symbol for an Age,New York:Oxford University Press,1955.
12 柯南道尔在一部侦探小说中为了解当时美国报界的党派倾向提供了生动的案例。见[英]阿瑟·柯南道尔著,李家云译,《福尔摩斯探案集》,第四部(《恐怖谷》)。
13 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.23.
14 John Tebbel and Sarah M.Watts,The Press and the Presidency,Oxford:Oxford University Press,1985,p.258.
15 参见[美]埃里克·方纳.美国自由的故事[M].王希译,北京:商务印书馆,2002.第六章:Erik Barnouw,ed.,Conglomerates and the Media,New York:The New Press,1997.
16 转引自Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1981,p.21.
17 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:30-31;Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.32.
18 Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins University Press,1981,p.22.
19 Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.447.
20 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,p.143.
21 Lori Cox Han,“The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities,” in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.164.
22 Betty H.Winfield,FDR and the News Media,Champaign:University of Illinois Press,1991,p.91.
23 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.41.
24 Ibid,p.44.
25 Ibid.
26 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.143-144.
27 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,pp.44-68.
28 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,p.145.
29 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings,2000,pp.153-155.
30 W.Lance Bennett,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,p.221.
31[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史——希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:257.
32 Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,p.95.
33 W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.146-147.
34 参见 John J.Dulio,Jr.,“Inside the Bush Presidency:Reflections of an Academic Interloper,” in Allen J.Cigler and Burdett A.Loomis,eds.,American Politics:Classic and Contemporary Readings,6th Edition,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2005,Chapter 11.4.
35 Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,Princeton:Princeton University Press,1987,p.64.
36 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,pp.31-33.
37 Theodore Roosevelt,Theodore Roosevelt:An Autobiography,New York:De Capo Press,1985,pp.366-367.
38 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1997,p.2.
39 Mary E.Stuckey,The President as Interpreter-in-Chief,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House Publishers,1991,p.25.
40 Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,p.96.
41 Carol Gelderman,All the Presidents' Words:The Bully Pulpit and the Creation of the Virtual Presidency,New York:Walker and Company,1997,pp.6-7.
42 John Morton Blum,Woodrow Wilson and the Politics of Morality,Boston:Little Brown,1956,pp.189-191.
43 Richard W.Waterman,"Closing the Expectations Gap:The Presidential Search for New Political Resources,” in Richard W.Waterman,ed.,The Presidency Reconsidered,Itasca,IL:F.E.Peacock Publishers,1993,p.25.
44 C-Span Survey,Feb.21,2000,quoted from Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.448.
45 刘绪贻.战后美国史:1945-2000[M].北京:人民出版社,2002:26-28.
46 David S.Mclellan and John W.Reuss,"Foreign and Military Policies," in Richard S.Kirkendall,ed.,The Truman Period as a Research Field,Columbia:University of Missouri Press,1967,pp.55-57.
47 刘绪贻主编,战后美国史:1945-2000[M].2002:27-31.
48 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.26.
49 Gary King and Lyn Ragsdale,The Elusive Executive:Discovering Statistical Patterns in the Presidency,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1988,pp.262-274;Roderick P.Hart,The Sound of Leadership:Presidential Communication in the Modern Age,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,1987,p.157;Martha Joynt Kumar,"Source Material:The White House and the Press:New Organizations as a Presidential Resource and as a Source of Pressure," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2003,pp.669-683;Lod Cox Han,"The Rose Garden Strategy Revisited:How Presidents Use Public Activities," in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.170-173.
50 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.106.
51 George Skelton,"Reagan Dip in Poll Tied to Spending Cuts," Los Angeles Times,March 19,1981,p.6,quoted from Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.145.
52 Ibid,p.146.
53 Ibid.
54 Mark J.Rozell,"In Reagan's Shadow:Bush's Anti-rhetorical Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,Winter 1998,pp.127-138.
55 转引自 Wynton C.Hall,"'Reflections of Yesterday':George H.W.Bush's Instrumental Use of Public Opinion Research in Presidential Discourse," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2002,p.538.
56 Marlin Fitzwater,"Memo to Any Card and David Demarest on Regional Media Coverage," Marlin Fitzwater Files[OA/ID 13204],1990,February 23,College Station,TX:George Bush Presidential Library.
57[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:76.
58 Carol Gelderman,All the Presidents'Words:The Bully Pulpit and the Creation of the Virtual Presidency,New York:Walker and Company,1997,p.8.
59 B.Dan Wood,The Politics of Economic Leadership,Princeton:Princeton University Press,2007,pp.1-5.
60[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:37-38.
61 Elvin T.Lim,"Five Trends in Presidential Rhetoric:An Analysis of Rhetoric from George Washington to Bill Clinton," Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2002,pp.328-348.
62 Steven M.Gillon and Cathy D.Matson,The American Experiment:A History of the United States,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,2002,pp.277-279.
63 Burdett Loomis,"From the Framing to the Fifties:Lobbying in Constitutional and Historical Contexts,"Extensions,Fall 2006,www.ou.edu/special/albertctr/extensions/fall2006/Loomis.pdf(2007-5-23)
64 参见Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,pp.255-258;Ward Sinclair,"USDA's Farm Bill Lobbying Hit," Washington Post,October 1,1985,p.A5.
65 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,p.181.
66 Ibid,pp.178-179.
67 W.Russell Neuman,"The Global Impact of New Technologies," in Doris Graber,et.al,eds.,The Politics of News,The News of Politics,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1998,p.238.
68[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:536-537;
[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:113-114.
69 Rex Nutting,"Bush Lobbying Effort Skirts Law," Market Watch,April 10,2005,http://www.marketwatch.com /News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7B5E61F470%2D3030%2D48F6%2DB741%2DAE9A15AF4903%7D&print=l&siteid=mktw(2007-12-21)
70 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:192.
71 同上书,第104页。
72[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林倾背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:188-194.
73 Major Garrett,"White House Buys Super Bowl Anti-Drug Spots," CNN News,Feb.1,2002,http://archives.cnn.com/2002/ALLPOLITICS/02/01/sb.white.house.ads/index.html(2007-12-29)
74 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267;另见 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.13.
75 Karlyn Bowman,"Polling to Campaign and to Govern," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p 67.
76 Samuel J.Best & Benjamin Radcliff,eds.,Polling America:An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion,London:Greenwood Press,2005,pp.580-581.
77 Robert Eisinger and Jeremy Brown,"Polling as Means toward Presidential Autonomy:Emil Hurja,Hadley Cantril,and the Roosevelt Administration," International Journal of Public Opinion Research,1998,vol.10,no.3,p.237.
78 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Robert Y.Shapiro,“The Rise of Presidential Polling:the Nixon White House in Historical Perspective,” Public Opinion Research Quarterly,1995,no.59,p.173.
79 Samuel J.Best & Benjamin Radcliff,eds.,Polling America:An Encyclopedia of Public Opinion,p.581.
80 Richard S.Beal and Ronald H.Hinckley,“Presidential Decisionmaking and Opinion Polls,” Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science,March 1984,p.72.
81 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,“Words vs.Deeds:President George W.Bush and Polling,” Brookings Institution:http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2003/summer_elections_tenpas.aspx(2008-01-03)
82 转引自Jeffrey E.Cohen,Presidential Responsiveness and Public Policy-Making,Ann Arbor:The University of Michigan Press,1997,pp.12-13.
83 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.86.
84 George C.Edwards,“Campaigning is Not Governing:Bill Clinton's Rhetorical Presidency,” in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Legacy:First Appraisals,Chatham,NJ:Chatham House,1996,pp.33-47.
85 Karlyn Bowman,“Polling to Campaign and to Govern,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p 67.
86 George C.Edwards,“Frustration and Folly:Bill Clinton and the Public Presidency,” in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Presidency:First Appraisals,p.236.
87 Karlyn Bowman,“Polling to Campaign and to Govern,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p 67.
88 Diane J.Heith,“The White House Public Opinion Apparatus Meets the Anti-Polling President,”in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,Albany:State University of New York Press,2005,p.77.
89 陈文鑫.塑造民意还是反映民意?——民意测验与美国的对外政策[J].美国研究.2003(4):77.
90 Matt Bai,“Rove's Way,” New York Times,October 20,2002,p.A12.
91 Diane J.Heith,“The White House Public Opinion Apparatus Meets the Anti-Polling President,” in Lori Cox Han and Diane J.Heith,eds.,In the Public Domain:Presidents and the Challenges of Public Leadership,p.84.
92 例如,Richard J.Ellis,ed.,Speaking to the People:The Rhetorical Presidency in Historical Perspective,Amherst:University of Massachusetts Press,1998;Jeffrey K.Tulis,The Rhetorical Presidency,New Jersey:Princeton University Press,1987.
93 转引自[美]诺姆·乔姆斯基,戴维·巴萨米安.宣传与公共意识[M].信强译,上海:上海译文出版社,2006:261.
94 沈国麟.控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2007:85.
95 同上书,第88页。
96 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,p.64.
97 George Stephanopoulos,All Too Human:A Political Education,Boston:Little Brown,1999,p.334.
98 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,p.106.
99 转引自陈文鑫.塑造民意还是反映民意?——民意测验与美国的对外政策[J].2003(4):73.
100 关于民意调查方法的详细介绍,参见Herbert Asher,Polling and the Public:What Every Citizen Should Know,5~(th) Edition,Washington,D.C.:CQ Press,2001,Chapter 4;Herbert F.Weisberg,et.al.,An Introduction to Survey Research,Polling,and Data Analysis,3~(rd) Edition,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1996;Earl Babbie,Survey Research Methods,2~(nd) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth Publishing Company,1998.
101 Steffen W.Schmidt,Mack C.Shelley and Barbara A.Bardes,American Government and Politics Today,2003-2004 Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,pp.213-215.
102 A.H.Cantril,The Opinion Connection:Polling,Politics,and the Press,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,1991,pp.134-139.
103 参见 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.43.
104 John R.Zaller,The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1992,p.29.
105 Justin Lewis,Congstructing Public Opinion:How Political Elites Do What They Like and Why We Seem to Go along with It,New York:Columbia University Press,2001,p.11.
106 Ibid,p.168.
1 Michael B.Grossman and Martha J.Kumar,Portraying the President:The White House and the News Media,Baltimore:Johns Hopkins,1981,p.3.
2 Ibid,p.4.
3 Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.516.
4 Bradley H.Patterson,Jr.,The White House Staff:inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution Press,2000,pp.ⅵ-ⅶ;Milton C.Cummings,Jr.and David Wise,Democracy under Pressure:an Introduction to the American Political System,9~(th) Edition,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,pp.431-432.
5 Matthew J.Dickinson,“Neustadt,New Institutionalism,and Presidential Decision Making:A Theory and Test,”Presidential Studies Quarterly,June 2005,pp.259-288.
6 参见 Martha Joynt Kumar,“Source Material:The White House and the Press:New Organizations as a Presidential Resource and as a Source of Pressure,” Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2003,pp.681-682.关于整个白宫班子的结构,参见Stephen J.Wayne,et.al.,eds.,The Politics of American Government,3~(rd) Edition,New York:Worth Publishers,1999,p.519.
7 Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,p.408.
8 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,“The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin,” in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,pp.111-112.
9 李庆四.美国总统的顾问领导科学[J].2002(22):54.
10 作者对卡特总统撰稿人之一James Fallows的访谈(2007年4月)。
11 John Anthony Maltese,Spin Control:The White House Office of Communications and the Management of Presidential News,2~(nd) Edition,Chapel Hill:University of North Carolina Press,1994,p.28.
12 Sidney Blumenthal,The Permanent Campaign,New York:Simon and Schuster,1982,p.7.
13[美]詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉.赢家兵法[M].张竹敏,胡晨寰译,上海社会科学院出版社,2005:21-22.
14 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,Washington,D.C.:Brookings,2000,pp.159-161.
15 转引自 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,"The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,pp.123-124.
16 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.23.
17 例如,[美]施密特等.美国政府与政治[M].梅然译,北京:北京大学出版社,2005:180.
18 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.74.
19 Kathryn Dunn Tenpas,"The American Presidency:Surviving and Thriving amidst the Permanent Campagin," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.112.
20 Ibid,pp.121-122.
21 Anthony Corrado,"Giving,Spending,and 'Soft Money,'" Journal of Law and Policy,1997,vol.6,no.1,pp.51-52.
22 Elizabeth Kolbert,"New Arena for Campaign Ads:Health Care," New York Times,Oct.21,1993,http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE6D7163DF932A15753C1A965958260&sec=&spon=&p agewanted=2(2007-09-12)
23 Kay Lehman Schlozman and John T.Tierney,Organized Interests and American Democracy,New York:Harper & Row,1986,p.293.
24 Bradley H.Patterson Jr.,The White House Staff:Inside the West Wing and Beyond,p.181.
25[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:8.
26 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W.Bush,the Media,and the Truth,New York:Touchstone,2004,pp.71-73.
27 Dana Milbank,"With'04 in Mind,Bush Team Saw Economic,Political Peril," Washington Post,December 7,2002,A12.
28 Bob Davis,"Treasury Chief Struggles to Sell Tax Plan," Wall Street Journal,May 5,2003,A01.
29 Ben Fritz,Bryan Keefer,and Brendan Nyhan,All the President's Spin:George W Bush,the Media,and the Truth,p.136.
30 McDermott Newsletters:"President Bush Signs New Tax Cut into Law," http://www.mwe.com/index.cfm/fuseaction/publications.nldetail/object_id/alb70299-f207-4fce-b418-cc3e1778088f.cfm(2007-09-18)
31[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434;关于当代总统在政治产品生产中与政治对手之间的互动,参见[美]埃德蒙·莫里斯.里根传[M].李小平等译,北京:当代世界出版社,2002.第30-36章:[美]乔治·布什.乔治·布什自传[M].北京:当代世界出版社,1989;[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004.第29-37章.
32 “SWOT分析法”是市场战略规划中的常用工具,用来对企业内外部各方面条件进行综合分析。“SWOT”分别代表企业优势(strength)、劣势(weakness)、机会(opportunity)和威胁(threats)。
33 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,pp.87-88.
34 该图的设计得到了布鲁斯·I·纽曼教授的帮助,特此致谢。
35 Diane J.Heith,"The Polls:Polling for a Defense:the White House Public Opinion Apparatus and the Clinton Impeachment," Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2000,pp.783-789.
36 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Chapter 7.
37 Lawrence R.Jacobs and Melanie Burns,"The Second Face of the Public Presidency:Presidential Polling and the Shift from Policy to Personality Polling," Presidential Studies Quarterly,September 2004,pp.536-554.
38 例如,Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001;以及Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000.一部关于政治顾问在总统决策中作用的经典影片是凯文·柯斯特纳2000年主演的《惊爆13天(Thirteen Days)》。
39 梁文道.奥巴马的胜利是修辞学的胜利[N].南方周末,2008,3(5):E30.
40 Mark J.Rozell,"In Reagan's Shadow:Bush's Anti-rhetorical Presidency," Presidential Studies Quarterly,Winter 1998,pp.127-138.
41 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.74-75;Richard M.Perloff,Political Communication:Politics,Press,and Public in America,Mahwah,NJ:Lawrence Erlbaum Associates,1998,pp.44-68.
42 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.129.
43 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.185-214.
44 Martha Joynt Kumar and Terry Sullivan,eds.,The White House World:Transitions,Organizations,and Office Operations,College Station:Texas A&M University Press,2003,pp.ⅹ-ⅹⅲ.
45 比如,自1994年12月到1996年大选前,白宫每周都要召集包括主要政治顾问、白宫班子主管、传播办公室主任、政治事务办公室主任、新闻秘书、竞选总管及商务部长等人在内的20余位成员,讨论竞选策略与政府政策之间互相促进事宜。见[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:29-30.
46 例如,袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):62-82;
孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:435-439.
47 钱皓.布鲁金斯学会与克林顿政府对华接触政策[J].国际观察.2006(3):41-47.
48 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].2001:435.
49 周敦仁.美国国内政治和PNTR投票[J].国际观察.2000(4):1-2.
50 孙哲.左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为[M].2001:436.
51 同上。
52 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):73-74.
53 凤凰卫视:“艰辛历程:中国的WTO与PNTR”,2000年5月25日:http://news.silversand.net/file/world/2000/05/25093043.html(2007-09-19)
54 Clinton Library File,OA08688,Box 3.由于开放不久的克林顿图书馆仅仅解密了一部分档案,对于涉及国外政策和白宫团队运作的内容不单很少,而且混杂在各类文件之中,因此,档案查询工作异常困难。感谢我的同学Ju Wong和Jennifer Chen,她们利用工作机会,多次去位于阿肯色州小石城的克林顿图书馆为我查询资料。本文来自克林顿图书馆的材料均为她们所提供。
55 袁征.总统游说与国会决策[J].美国研究.2001(3):74-75.
56[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:939.
57 Clinton Library File,OA40151,Box 56.
58 同上。
59 详见美国科学家联盟网:http://www.fas.org/news/china/2000/000110-prc-usial.htm(2007-08-19)
60 详见中国世贸网:http://www.chinawto.com/wto/index-e.asp?sel=info&info=report2000(2007-08-23)
61 同上。
62 香港贸易发展局网:http://marketinfo.tdctrade.com/content.aspx?data=china_content_en&contentid =173331&src=CN_BuNeTrSt&w_sid=194&w_pid=630&w_nid=9929&w_cid=173331&w_idt=1900-01-01&w oid=167&w_jid=(2007-08-30)
63 Clinton Library File,OA40844,Box 79.
64 美国政府跟踪网:http://www.govtrack.us/congress/vote.xpd?vote=h2000-228(2007-09-23)
65 企业圆桌会议网:http://www.businessroundtable.org/newsroom/document.aspx?qs=55D6BF807822B0F18D D449167F75A70478252(2007-08-29)
66 据不完全统计,2000年4月初至5月末,有关对华PNTR的话题,白宫各部门间至少交换了870份(次)备忘录,涵盖民意测验结果、国会议员的态度、电视广告的效果等各项内容。Clmton Library File,OA04591-04592,Box 207-209.
67 议案详情参见美国国会网站:http://www.thomas.gov(2007-07-17)
1 Steven E.Schier,ed.,The Post Modern Presidency:Bill Clinton's Legacy in U.S.Politics,Pittsburgh:University of Pittsburgh Press,2000,p.265.
2 转引自[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:325.
3 Bill Clinton and Al Gore,Putting People First:How We Can All Change America,New York:Times Books,1992,pp.107-111;[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,南京:译林出版社,2004:532.
4 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.53-54.
5 关于医疗保健改革工作团队的人员组成,见Robert Peal“Ending Its Secrecy,White House Lists Health-care Panel," New York Times,March 13,1993.http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9F0CE7DA1131F934A15750C0A965958260&sec=&spon=&pagewanted=1(2007-09-09)
6[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:128-129.
7 Burdett A.Loomis,"The Never Ending Story:Campaigns without Elections," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.163.
8 James Risen,"Health Reform Sprouts Intense Grassroots Lobbying outside the Beltway," Los Angeles Times,August 1,1994,A5.
9 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.59-60.
10 陈宝森.美国两种经济哲学的新较量--兼论克林顿第一任期内的两党预算战[A].见:牛车.克林顿治下的美国[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998:295-312.
11 详见蒋劲松.论美国1995年预算大战[J].英国研究.1996(4):47-75.
12[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].李公昭等译,.南京:译林出版社,2004:734-735.
13 U.S.Congress:Congressional Quarterly,Dec.9,1995,vol.53,no.48,p.3762.
14[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉.政治学研究方法指南[M].陈琪译,北京:北京大学出版社,2006:10-11.
15 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.129.
16 转引自Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.104.
17 Steffen W.Schmidt,et.al.,American Government and Politics Today,Belmont,CA:Wadsworth,2003,p.222.
18[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:530-545.
19 同上书,第543页,第545-547页。
20[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:550.
21 同上书,第132页。
22 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,p.69.
23[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:215.
24 James Risen,"Health Reform Sprouts Intense Grassroots Lobbying outside the Beltway," Los Angeles Times,August 1,1994,A5.
25[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997:202.
26 同上书,第203-204页。
27 Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,p.129.
28[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:202.
29 同上书,第213-215页。
30 同上书,第221页。
31 同上书,第193-194页。
32 Louis Harris and Associates Poll,18-22 January 1996,转引自Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.289.
33 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.201.
34[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:279-286.
35[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].李晓岗等译,北京:中国社会科学出版社,2004:97.
36[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:193.
37 同上。
38[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:203.
39 John C.Tedesco,"Clinton's Public Relations Nightmares Begin," in Robert E.Denton,Jr.and Rachel L.Holloway,eds.,Images,Scandal and Communication Strategies of the Clinton Presidency,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.73-79.
40 Ibid,p.81.
41[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:177-178.
42 同上书,第178页。
43 同上书,第185页。
44 同上书,第232页。
45 同上书,第188页。
46[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:541-542.
47[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].2004:115.
48 同上书,第114-115页。
49 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.56.
50[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:208-209.
51[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:754-755.
52 同上书,第755页。
53[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:161.
54 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.57.
55[美]罗伯特·鲁宾.在不确定的世界:从华尔街到华盛顿的艰难选择[M].2004:114.
56[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:197,214-215.
57 同上书,第201-202页。
58[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:224-225.
59 同上书,第127页。
60 蒋劲松.论美国1995年预算大战[J].美国研究.1996(4):70.
61 Barbara Sinclair,"The President as Legislative Leader," in Colin Campbell and Bert A.Rockman,eds.,The Clinton Legacy,London:Chatham House,2000,p.88.
62 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,Chicago:University of Chicago Press,2000,pp.96-97.
63 Theda Skocpol,Boomerrang:Clinton's Health Security Effort and the Turn against Government in U.S.Politics,New York:W.W.Norton,1996,pp.53-57.
64 Memo from Judy Feder to Bruce Fried,Marchl2,1992,转引自 Lawrence Jacobs and Robert Shapiro,Politicians Don't Pander:Political Manipulation and the Loss of Democratic Responsiveness,p.83.
65 Ibid.
66 Memo to the President and First Lady from Magaziner,October 1,1993.Ibid,p.84.
67 David W.Moore,The Superpollsters:How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America,New York:Four Walls Eight Windows,1995,pp.388-389;George C.Edwards and Stephen J.Wayne,Presidential Leadership:Politics and Policy Making,5~(th) ed.,New York:Wadsworth,1999,p.124.
68[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].2003:278.
69[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:188.
70[美]比尔.克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:699-700.
71 Clinton Library File,OA21200,Box 101.
72[美]比尔·克林顿.我的生活:克林顿回忆录[M].2004:718.
73 Clinton Library File,OA21200,Box 101.
74[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:215.
75 同上书,第188-190页。
76 同上书,第191,234-238页。
77 CNN 网站:http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0204/25/ip.00.html(2007-12-01)
78[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:207-210.
79[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:141-142.
80 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Police,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,p.69.
81[美]迪克·莫里斯.克林顿背后[M].1997:192.
1 转引自[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈·伯恩斯.领袖[M].常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007:314.
2 Samuel Huntington,American Politics:The Promise of Disharmony,Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1981,p.75.
3 Arthur M.Schlesinger,Jr.,The Imperial Presidency,Boston:Houghton Mifflin,1973.
4 James L.Sundquist,The Decline and Resurgence of Congress,Washington,D.C.:Brookings Institution,1981,p.256;薛涌.美国总统帝王化:反思布什这四年[J].南方人物周刊.2004(11.3):32.
5 Byron W.Daynes and Glen Sussman,The American Presidency and the Social Agenda,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2001,pp.4-5.
6[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿.亲历历史--希拉里回忆录[M].潘勋等译,南京:译林出版社,2003:280.
7 Diana Owen,Media Messages in American Presidential Elections,New York:Greenwood,1991,p.94.
8 Charlie Savage,"Bush Could Bypass New Torture Ban:Waiver Right Reserved," Boston Globe,January 4,2006,A1,http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2006/01/04/bush_could_bypass_new_torture_ban/(2008-01-04)
9 Donald R.Wolfensberger,"The Return of the Imperial Presidency?" Wilson Quarterly,vol.26,no.2,Spring 2002,p.36.
10[美]库尔茨.操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].张金秀,周荣国译,北京:新华出版社,2000:12.
11[美]斯蒂芬·斯科夫罗内克.总统政治--从约翰.亚当斯到比尔.克林顿的领导艺术[M].黄云等译,北京:新华出版社,2003:60-62.
12 同上书,第60页。
13 比如,Michael A.Genovese,The Presidential Dilemma:Leadership in the American System,New York:HarperCollins,1995;Edwards,George C.,Ⅲ,and Stephen J.Wayne,Presidential Leadership:Politics and Policy Making,5~(th) ed.,New York:Wadsworth,1999,等等。
14 Richard W.Waterman,Robert Wright and Gilbert St.Clair,The Image-Is-Everything Presidency:Dilemmas in American Leadership,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1999,pp.5-6.
15 Robert Reich,Locked in the Cabinet,New York:Alfred A.Knopf,1997,pp.261-262.
16 Theodore J.Lowi,The Personal President:Power Invested,Promise Unfulfilled,Ithaca:Cornell University Press,1985,p.11.
17 李庆余,周桂银等.美国现代化道路[M].北京:人民出版社,1994:266.
18 Robert A.Dahl and Charles E.Lindblom,Politics,Economics,and Welfare,New York:Harper and Row,1953,p.333.
19 Samuel Kernell,Going Public:New Strategies of Presidential Leadership,3~(rd) Edition,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly,1997,pp.12-15.
20 同上书,第15页。
21[美]D.B.杜鲁门.政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论[M].陈尧译,天津:天津人民出版社,2005:434.
22 秦晖.“降低交易费用”的独特方式:中国奇迹1992-2001[N].南方周末.2008,2(21):D23.
23[美]布鲁斯·埃-纽曼.营销总统:选战中的政治营销[M].张哲馨译,上海:上海人民出版社,2007:1.
24 Herbert Asher,Polling and the Public:What Every Citizen Should Know,5~(th) ed.,Washington,D.C.:Congressional Quarterly Press,2001,p.186.
25 Benjamin Ginsberg,The Captive Public:How Mass Opinion Promotes State Power,New York:Basic Books,1986,p.85.
26 同上。
27[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].张绍伦等译,石家庄:河北人民出版社,1997:171.
28 转引自 Robert M.Eisinger,The Evolution of Presidential Polling,Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2003,p.181.
29 Thomas E.Cronin and Michael A.Genovese,The Paradoxes of the American Presidency,New York:Oxford University Press.1998,p.4.
30[美]道格拉斯·拉米斯.激进的民主[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002:8.
31 转引自胡东,李雪洋.关于民意的民主性思考[J].政治学研究.2006(2):49.
32 同上。
33[美]兰斯·班尼特.政治的幻象[M].杨晓红、王家全译,北京:当代中国出版社,2005:158.
34[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].1997:221.
35 Lawrence C.Dodd,"The New American Politics:Reflections on the Early 1990s," in Jones,Bryan D.,ed.,The New American Politics:Reflections on Political Change and the Clinton Administration,Boulder,CO:Westview Press,1995,p.270.
36 转引自Thomas R.Dye,Politics in America,5~(th) Edition,Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2003,pp.22-23.
37 郑方辉,朱一中.民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2007:267-279:另见 Dennis W.Johnson,No Place for Amateurs:How Political Consultants Are Reshaping American Democracy,New York:Routledge,2001,pp.256-259.
38 《环球时报》,2005年7月20日,第20版;另见[美]库尔茨.操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕[M].2000:72.
39 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,"IN:AEI Press,2000,pp.35-36.
4o Wally Clinton,"Endless Campaign," quoted from James A.Thurber,"Is the Permanent Campaign Well and Alive after 9/11 ?" American University CCPS Website:http://spa.american.edu/ccps/getpdf.php?table=publications&ID=47(2007-12-10)
41 Hugh Heclo,"Campaigning and Governing:A Conspectus," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,La Vergne,TN:AEI Press,2000,p.17.
42 James A.Thurber,"Is the Permanent Campaign Well and Alive after 9/11 ?" American University CCPS Website:http://spa.american.edu/ccps/getpdf.php?table=publications&ID=47(2007-02-10)
43 Charles O.Jones,"Preparing to Govern in 2001:Lessons from the Clinton Presidency," in Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,p.211.
44 Corey Cook,"The Permanence of the 'Permanent Campaign':George W.Bush's Public Presidency,"Presidential Studies Quarterly,December 2002,p.762.
45 Norman J.Ornstein and Thomas E.Mann,eds.,The Permanent Campaign and Its Future,pp.231-233.
46[美]罗伯特·Wˉ麦克切斯尼.富媒体,穷民主[M].谢岳译,北京:新华出版社,2004:389.
47 Bennett,W.Lance,News:The Politics of Illusion,5~(th) Edition,New York:Longman,2003,pp.186-192.
48 W.Lance Bennett and Robert M.Entman,eds.,Mediated Politics:Communication in the Future of Democracy,Cambridge:University of Cambridge Press,2001,pp.468-470.
49 M.J.C.Vile,Politics in the USA,5~(th) ed.,New York:Routledge,1999,pp.159-172;J.Harry Wray,"Money and Politics," in Bruce I.Newman,ed.,Handbook of Political Marketing,Thousand Oaks,CA:Sage Publications,1999,pp.741-757.
50 Douglas A.Lathrop,The Campaign Continues:How Political Consultants and Campaign Tactics Affect Public Policy,Westport,CT:Praeger Publishers,2003,pp.165-172;Diane J.Heith,Polling to Govern:Public Opinion and Presidential Leadership,Stanford,CA:Stanford University Press,2004,p.135.
51[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒.美国民主的讽刺[M].1997:186.
52 同上。译文经修改。
1.[美]虽里·奥尔德里奇著,赵文书,肖锁章译,《白宫内姆--联邦探员眼中的克林顿政府》,南京:江苏人民出版社,1998年。
2.[美]詹姆斯·麦格雷戈.伯恩斯著,《领袖》,常健等译,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2007年。
3.[美]托马斯·R·戴伊,L·哈蒙奇格勒著,张绍伦等译,《美国民主的讽刺》,石家庄:河北人民出版社,1997年。
4.[美]威廉·邓恩著,谢明等译,《公共政策分析导论》,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002年。
5.[美]D.B.杜鲁门著,陈尧译,《政治过程--政治利益与公共舆论》,天津:天津人民出版社,2005年。
6.[美]斯蒂芬·范埃弗拉著,陈琪译,《政治学研究方法指南》,北京:北京大学出版社,2006年。
7.[美]埃里克·方纳著,王希译,《美国自由的故事》,北京:商务印书馆,2002年。
8.[加]迈克尔·豪利特,M·拉米什著,庞诗等译,《公共政策研究:政策循环与政策子系统》,北京:三联书店,2006年。
9.[美]汉密尔顿,杰伊,麦迪逊著,程逢如等译,《联邦党人文集》,北京:商务印书馆,2006年。
10.詹姆斯·卡维尔,保罗·贝加拉著,张竹敏,胡晨寰译,《赢家兵法》,上海社会科学院出版社,2005年。
11.[美]菲利普·科特勒著,梅清豪译,《营销管理(第11版)》,上海:上海人民出版社,2003年。
12.[美]菲利普·科特勒著,郭永译,《科特勒说》,北京:当代中国出版社,2005年。
13.[美]比尔·克林顿著,李公昭等译,《我的生活:克林顿回忆录》,南京:译林出版社,2004年。
14.[美]希拉里·罗德姆·克林顿著,潘勋等译,《亲历历史--希拉里回忆录》,南京:译林出版社,2003年。
15.[美]R.F.肯尼迪著,《十三天:古巴导弹危机回忆录》,上海:上海人民出版社,1977年。
16.[美]库尔茨著,张金秀,周荣国译,《操纵圈:克林顿新闻宣传机器内幕》,北京:新华出版社,2000年。
17.[美]道格拉斯·拉米斯著,《激进的民主》,北京:中国人民大学出版社,2002年。
18.李道揆著,《美国政府和美国政治》,北京:商务印书馆,1999年。
19.李庆余,周桂银等著,《美国现代化道路》,北京:人民出版社,1994年。
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21.刘绪贻主编,《战后美国史:1945-2000》,北京:人民出版社,2002年。
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23.[美]克里思·马修斯著,林猛,吴群芳译,《硬球--政治是这样玩的》,北京:新华出版社,2003年。
24.马清槐编,《潘恩选集》,北京:商务印书馆,1981年。
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26.[美]迪克·莫里斯著,《克林顿背后》,尤志文,曹珍芬等译,上海:上海人民出版社,1997年。
27.[美]埃德蒙·莫里斯著,李小平等译,《里根传》,北京:当代世界出版社,2002年。
28.[美]布鲁斯·埃·纽曼著,张哲馨译,《营销总统:选战中的政治营销》,上海:上海人民出版社,2007年。
29.[美]卡尔·帕顿,大卫·沙维奇著,《政策分析和规划的初步方法》,孙兰芝等译,北京:华夏出版社,2002年。
30.[美]诺姆·乔姆斯基,戴维·巴萨米安著,信强译,《宣传与公共意识》,上海:上海译文出版社,2006年。
31.[英]切斯特菲尔德著,刘树林,崔黎丽译,《一生的忠告:一位外交家爸爸给孩子的信》,北京:北京海潮出版社,2004年。
32.沈国麟著,《控制沟通:美国政府的媒体宣传》,上海:上海人民出版社,2007年。
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35.孙哲著,《左右未来:美国国会的制度创新和决策行为》,上海:复旦大学出版社,2001年。
36.[美]安东尼·唐斯著,姚洋等译,《民主的经济理论》,上海:上海世纪出版集团,2005年。
37.唐雁凌,姜国刚主编,《公共关系学》,北京:清华大学出版社,2007年。
38.[美]苏珊·特伦托著,新新闻编译小组译,《超级说客》,台北:新新闻文化事业股份有限公司,1995年。
39.[法]托克维尔著,张晓明译,《论美国的民主》,北京:北京出版社,2007年。
40.[美]希尔斯曼著,曹大鹏译,《美国是如何治理的》,北京:商务印书馆,1986年。
41.许云霄编著,《公共选择理论》,北京:北京大学出版社,2006年。
42.赵宏中主编,《公共关系学(第三版)》,武汉:武汉理工大学出版社,2005年。
43.郑方辉,朱一中著,《民意市场研究:理论方法与典型报告》,北京:中国经济出版社,2007年。
1.陈宝森:“美国两种经济哲学的新较量--兼论克林顿第一任期内的两党预算战”,载牛军主编,《克林顿治下的美国》,北京:中国社会科学出版社,1998年,第295-312页。
2.陈文鑫:“塑造民意还是反映民意?--民意测验与美国的对外政策”,载《美国研究》,2003年第4期,第77页。
3.胡东,李雪洋:“关于民意的民主性思考”,载《政治学研究》,2006年第2期,第44-51页。
4.胡晓进,任东来:“美国总统与国会的对外事务权之争”,载孙哲主编,《美国国会研究Ⅱ》,上海:复旦大学出版社,2003年,第7-8页。
5.蒋劲松:“论美国1995年预算大战”,载《美国研究》,1996年第4期,第47-75页。
6.郎劲松、侯月娟:“现代政治传播与新闻发布制度”,载《现代传播》,2004年第3期,第34页。
7.李庆四:“美国总统的顾问”,载《领导科学》,2002年第22期,第54页。
8.梁文道:“奥巴马的胜利是修辞学的胜利”,《南方周末》,2008年3月6日,E30。
9.钱皓:“布鲁金斯学会与克林顿政府对华接触政策”,载《国际观察》,2006年第3期,第41-47页。
10.秦晖:“‘降低交易费用'的独特方式:中国奇迹1992-2001”,载《南方周末》,2008年2月21日,D23.
11.孙鸿:“认识政治营销”,载《中国公关与发展》,2007年第10期,第55-57页。
12.王建:“‘新闻执政'与‘政治营销”',载《徐州师范大学学报〈哲学社科版〉》,2007年3月,第33卷第2期,第33页。
13.薛涌:“美国总统帝王化:反思布什这四年”,载《南方人物周刊》,2004年11月3日,第28-32页。
14.袁征:“总统游说与国会决策”,载《美国研究》,2001年第3期,第66-67页。
15.张立平:“金钱与政治腐败--试论美国竞选经费改革”,载《国际论坛》,2001年10月,第58-65页。
16.周敦仁:“美国国内政治和PNTR投票”,载《国际观察》,2000年第4期,第1-6页。
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