近2000年中国年代际—百年尺度气候特征及其全球对比
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摘要
过去2000年是气候变化研究中的一个重要时段,而中国地区具有较多的古气候记录,是研究这一时段的理想区域。目前,代用指标集成分析的研究较少,而各类古气候载体中气候代用指标的综合研究有助于从多角度建立区域气候特征。
本文基于历史文献记录,重建了东部地区0-1000aAD寒冷指数序列,结合中国地区38条分辨率较高的温度与降水代用序列,总结出近2000年中国三大区域温湿特征及空间分布。在此基础上选取5条典型温度序列与极地冰芯、海表温度进行对比,与选取的三大区域典型干湿序列一起,利用功率谱分析方法对周期变化进行计算,旨在研究中国区域在全球背景下年代际-百年尺度气候突变的响应机制,同时这一时段包含了人类活动异常剧烈的近200年,因此本研究还有助于考查人类活动对气候变化的影响。
结果表明：存在于东部季风区记录中的隋唐温暖期在其他区域表现并不明显。中世纪暖期与小冰期在中国地区普遍存在。其中,中世纪暖期的起讫时间差异很大,并且期间的冷暖波动没有明显的规律可言。而小冰期在多数区域可以分为三个冷期,起讫时间呈现由中国西部向东部推移的趋势。20世纪变暖则是毋庸置疑的事实。温湿配置空间分布主要体现在,中世纪暖期时西部湿润,东部干旱；小冰期时期,西部干旱,东部湿润；20世纪增温期,西部相对湿润,东部与北疆地区干旱。通过周期分析,选取的5条典型温度序列与极地温度、西太平洋SST以及北大西洋SST存在遥相关,在长时间尺度上中国区域的干湿变化也与北大西洋及西太平洋海表温度呈现负相关性。而太阳活动、火山活动是影响中国区域温湿变化的主要驱动因子,具体表现在太阳活动弱、火山活动强时温度降低,反之亦然。近百年内人类活动对区域温度升高的影响也是明显存在的。
The past two thousand years is an important period in the climate change research, and there is a lot of Paleoclimatic Records during this period in China. So China is the ideal area to study this programe. At present, there are relatively few alternative indicators integrated analysis, and comprehensive research of climate proxies in various paleoclimate carrier contribute to the establishment of regional climate characteristics from multiple perspectives.
Based on the records of historical documents, I reconstruction the0～1000aAD coldness index sequence in eastern region. Combined with the38high-resolution temperature and precipitation of alternative sequences to summed up the characteristics and spatial distribution of the three regional temperature and humidity in China during the past2000years. Selected five typical temperature sequences to compared with the records of polar ice cores and sea surface temperature. Then combined with the typical wet and dry sequences to calculate periodic variation through power spectral analysis method. In order to study response mechanism of the decadal to centennial variability of china climate in Global environment. The past2000years also contains the unusually intense human activities for nearly200years, therefore, this reasearch also contribute to examine theimpact of human activities on climate change.
Studies have shown that:Sui and Tang Warm Period in the records of the eastern monsoon region is not obvious in other regions. But the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are widespread in China. The Little Ice Age can be divided into three coldness period in most regions of China, The change trend of the start and end time is from western China to the eastern.20th century warming is an indubitable fact. Temperature and humidity configuration space distribution is mainly reflected in the Medieval Warm Period when the western China humid, eastern China drought; Little Ice Age period, the Western drought, the eastern humid;20th century warming period, relatively wet in the western,the eastern and northern Xinjiang are dry. Selected five typical sequences are teleconnection with the polar temperature, the western Pacific SST and the North Atlantic SST. On the long time-scales, the wet and dry change in China is also a negative correlation with sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and West Pacific. Solar activity, volcanic activity are the main driving factors to affect regional temperature and humidity changes in China, concrete manifestation of weak solar activity, volcanic activity, the strongtemperature decreases, and vice versa. Nearly a hundred years of human activities on the regional temperature influence obviously exist.
本文基于历史文献记录,重建了东部地区0-1000aAD寒冷指数序列,结合中国地区38条分辨率较高的温度与降水代用序列,总结出近2000年中国三大区域温湿特征及空间分布。在此基础上选取5条典型温度序列与极地冰芯、海表温度进行对比,与选取的三大区域典型干湿序列一起,利用功率谱分析方法对周期变化进行计算,旨在研究中国区域在全球背景下年代际-百年尺度气候突变的响应机制,同时这一时段包含了人类活动异常剧烈的近200年,因此本研究还有助于考查人类活动对气候变化的影响。
结果表明：存在于东部季风区记录中的隋唐温暖期在其他区域表现并不明显。中世纪暖期与小冰期在中国地区普遍存在。其中,中世纪暖期的起讫时间差异很大,并且期间的冷暖波动没有明显的规律可言。而小冰期在多数区域可以分为三个冷期,起讫时间呈现由中国西部向东部推移的趋势。20世纪变暖则是毋庸置疑的事实。温湿配置空间分布主要体现在,中世纪暖期时西部湿润,东部干旱；小冰期时期,西部干旱,东部湿润；20世纪增温期,西部相对湿润,东部与北疆地区干旱。通过周期分析,选取的5条典型温度序列与极地温度、西太平洋SST以及北大西洋SST存在遥相关,在长时间尺度上中国区域的干湿变化也与北大西洋及西太平洋海表温度呈现负相关性。而太阳活动、火山活动是影响中国区域温湿变化的主要驱动因子,具体表现在太阳活动弱、火山活动强时温度降低,反之亦然。近百年内人类活动对区域温度升高的影响也是明显存在的。
The past two thousand years is an important period in the climate change research, and there is a lot of Paleoclimatic Records during this period in China. So China is the ideal area to study this programe. At present, there are relatively few alternative indicators integrated analysis, and comprehensive research of climate proxies in various paleoclimate carrier contribute to the establishment of regional climate characteristics from multiple perspectives.
Based on the records of historical documents, I reconstruction the0～1000aAD coldness index sequence in eastern region. Combined with the38high-resolution temperature and precipitation of alternative sequences to summed up the characteristics and spatial distribution of the three regional temperature and humidity in China during the past2000years. Selected five typical temperature sequences to compared with the records of polar ice cores and sea surface temperature. Then combined with the typical wet and dry sequences to calculate periodic variation through power spectral analysis method. In order to study response mechanism of the decadal to centennial variability of china climate in Global environment. The past2000years also contains the unusually intense human activities for nearly200years, therefore, this reasearch also contribute to examine theimpact of human activities on climate change.
Studies have shown that:Sui and Tang Warm Period in the records of the eastern monsoon region is not obvious in other regions. But the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are widespread in China. The Little Ice Age can be divided into three coldness period in most regions of China, The change trend of the start and end time is from western China to the eastern.20th century warming is an indubitable fact. Temperature and humidity configuration space distribution is mainly reflected in the Medieval Warm Period when the western China humid, eastern China drought; Little Ice Age period, the Western drought, the eastern humid;20th century warming period, relatively wet in the western,the eastern and northern Xinjiang are dry. Selected five typical sequences are teleconnection with the polar temperature, the western Pacific SST and the North Atlantic SST. On the long time-scales, the wet and dry change in China is also a negative correlation with sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic and West Pacific. Solar activity, volcanic activity are the main driving factors to affect regional temperature and humidity changes in China, concrete manifestation of weak solar activity, volcanic activity, the strongtemperature decreases, and vice versa. Nearly a hundred years of human activities on the regional temperature influence obviously exist.
引文
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