江淮地区梅雨期降水与海温的SVD分析及相关数值模拟
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摘要
本文从气候角度出发,在探求海温与梅雨降水的相关关系的基础上,进行了江淮地区区
域气候与海温关系的数值模拟试验,力图探讨海温异常影响江淮地区梅雨降水变化的机制。
结果表明:(1) 江淮南区梅雨期降水与前一年10～12月南海海域海温异常有较高且较为持
续的正相关关系,Key海区(6°N-22°N,114°E-124°E)主要海温分布型为西正东负
型。(2) 南区梅雨期降水与前一年8～12月赤道东太平洋Key海区(10°S-0,120-100°W)
附近海域海温异常同样有较好的正相关关系。(3) 与南区梅雨期降水耦合正相关的南海和赤
道东太平洋关键区海温异常分布实际上属于同一种海温分布型,但两个海温Key区所影响
到的南区的范围是不相同的。(4) 南海正负海温试验均能充分说明当南海关键区附近海域海
温异常升高(降低)时,江淮南区850hpa上空气流辐合增强(辐散增强),海洋提供的水汽
输送加强(减弱),梅雨季节降水增加(减少)。(5) 江淮北区梅雨期降水与当年1～2月北
太平洋(150°E-165°E,42°N-47°N)附近海域,及前一年10～12月北大西洋东部
(14°W-4°W,43°N-52°N)海域维持了较好的正相关,江淮北区和这两个Key区
为耦合相关的显著部位。(6) 北太平洋正海温试验模拟结果较负海温试验好,能够大致反映
当北太平洋关键区附近海域海温异常升高时,江淮北区850hpa上空气流辐合增强,来自大
洋上的水汽辐合加强,梅雨时期降水增加。
With the view to climate, and based on the searching for the correlativity between the SST and Meiyu precipitation, this dissertation has numerical simulation experiments for the relationship between regional climate in Jianghuai and SST, and tries to search for mechanism of SSTA causing Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai to vary. The results show:(1) There is positive correlation between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai south and SSTA( 10-12 monthly averaged in former year) in Southern China Sea, and the SST distribution pattern including the key region(6 °N—22°N, 114°E—124°E) is positive west and negative east.(2) There is also apparent correlation between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai south and SSTA( 8-12 monthly averaged in former year) in equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, especially the higher correlation in the key regions(10 °S-0, 120-100°W).(3) In fact, the two SST distributions mentioned above belong to the same SST distribution pattern, but the regions influenced by the two SST distribution are different from each other.(4) Numerical simulations including positive and negative experiments in Southern China Sea can fully illuminate that when SST around the key regions increases or decrease, airflow over 850 hpa converge more or disperse more in Jianghuai south, and oceans provide more or less water vapor to Jianghuai south. As a result, Meiyu precipitation grows up or cuts down.(5) There are rather apparent positive correlations between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai north and SSTA (1-2 monthly averaged in the present year) in northern Pacific Ocean around (150 °E-165 °E , 42 °N-47 °N) , and between the former and SSTA (10-12 monthly averaged in the former year) in eastern
Atlantic Ocean. The Jianghuai north and the two key regions are significant regions in couple.(6) Results of positive numerical experiments in northern Pacific Ocean are better than those of negative ones. The results of the former can generally show that when SST around the key regions increase, airflow over 850 hpa converge more in the Jianghuai north, and more water vapor is transported to Jianghuai north by oceans. Therefore, Meiyu precipitation will be fortified.
域气候与海温关系的数值模拟试验,力图探讨海温异常影响江淮地区梅雨降水变化的机制。
结果表明:(1) 江淮南区梅雨期降水与前一年10～12月南海海域海温异常有较高且较为持
续的正相关关系,Key海区(6°N-22°N,114°E-124°E)主要海温分布型为西正东负
型。(2) 南区梅雨期降水与前一年8～12月赤道东太平洋Key海区(10°S-0,120-100°W)
附近海域海温异常同样有较好的正相关关系。(3) 与南区梅雨期降水耦合正相关的南海和赤
道东太平洋关键区海温异常分布实际上属于同一种海温分布型,但两个海温Key区所影响
到的南区的范围是不相同的。(4) 南海正负海温试验均能充分说明当南海关键区附近海域海
温异常升高(降低)时,江淮南区850hpa上空气流辐合增强(辐散增强),海洋提供的水汽
输送加强(减弱),梅雨季节降水增加(减少)。(5) 江淮北区梅雨期降水与当年1～2月北
太平洋(150°E-165°E,42°N-47°N)附近海域,及前一年10～12月北大西洋东部
(14°W-4°W,43°N-52°N)海域维持了较好的正相关,江淮北区和这两个Key区
为耦合相关的显著部位。(6) 北太平洋正海温试验模拟结果较负海温试验好,能够大致反映
当北太平洋关键区附近海域海温异常升高时,江淮北区850hpa上空气流辐合增强,来自大
洋上的水汽辐合加强,梅雨时期降水增加。
With the view to climate, and based on the searching for the correlativity between the SST and Meiyu precipitation, this dissertation has numerical simulation experiments for the relationship between regional climate in Jianghuai and SST, and tries to search for mechanism of SSTA causing Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai to vary. The results show:(1) There is positive correlation between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai south and SSTA( 10-12 monthly averaged in former year) in Southern China Sea, and the SST distribution pattern including the key region(6 °N—22°N, 114°E—124°E) is positive west and negative east.(2) There is also apparent correlation between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai south and SSTA( 8-12 monthly averaged in former year) in equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean, especially the higher correlation in the key regions(10 °S-0, 120-100°W).(3) In fact, the two SST distributions mentioned above belong to the same SST distribution pattern, but the regions influenced by the two SST distribution are different from each other.(4) Numerical simulations including positive and negative experiments in Southern China Sea can fully illuminate that when SST around the key regions increases or decrease, airflow over 850 hpa converge more or disperse more in Jianghuai south, and oceans provide more or less water vapor to Jianghuai south. As a result, Meiyu precipitation grows up or cuts down.(5) There are rather apparent positive correlations between Meiyu precipitation in Jianghuai north and SSTA (1-2 monthly averaged in the present year) in northern Pacific Ocean around (150 °E-165 °E , 42 °N-47 °N) , and between the former and SSTA (10-12 monthly averaged in the former year) in eastern
Atlantic Ocean. The Jianghuai north and the two key regions are significant regions in couple.(6) Results of positive numerical experiments in northern Pacific Ocean are better than those of negative ones. The results of the former can generally show that when SST around the key regions increase, airflow over 850 hpa converge more in the Jianghuai north, and more water vapor is transported to Jianghuai north by oceans. Therefore, Meiyu precipitation will be fortified.
引文
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